This Was The Hottest June In History, And Summer Is Just Getting Started

Grist - Zoya Teirstein

Mustafa Yalcin / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images   

If sometime during the past month you wiped sweat from your brow and thought, “Damn, it’s hot!” then congrats, your body knows what’s up. This past month was the hottest June ever recorded on planet Earth, according to the European Union’s Earth observation program, which announced the new record on Tuesday.
The unprecedented heat brought death, destruction, and misery to huge swaths of the planet. By the middle of June, more than 35 people had died as temperatures soared past 120 degrees Fahrenheit in India. France set a new national temperature record: 115 degrees. Multiple wildfires broke out in Spain, one of them, a 10,000-acre blaze, might have started when heat caused a pile of manure to burst into flames. One European heat map turned such a violent shade of red it looked like an open-mouthed skull in mid-scream (you have to see it to believe it). And, get this: Summer is just getting started.
In Europe, June temperatures were 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal, according to the European program called Copernicus. Globally, temperatures were about a fifth of a degree higher than normal for the month, beating out the record set in 2016.
Here’s another worrisome finding from the report : If you compare the last several days of June to the average for the same several days between 1981 to 2010, temperatures this year were around 10 to 18 degrees F higher than normal over much of Western Europe — France, Germany, northern Spain, northern Italy, Switzerland, Austria, and the Czech Republic.
Super weird that temperatures just decided to spike like that. There’s no way humans have anything to do with it, right?
Heat waves like the one that just gripped Europe are not always directly linked to anthropogenic climate change, but extreme weather events are made worse by higher concentrations of greenhouse gases.
Another report released Tuesday from World Weather Attribution found that such heat waves are happening about 10 times more often now than they were a century ago. “Every heatwave occurring in Europe today is made more likely and more intense by human-induced climate change,” the report said.
Perhaps all this sweltering weather will spur governments to fulfill their commitments to slash carbon emissions. Barring that, it’s probably time to invest in a good air conditioner (and, yes, we know that comes with plenty of problems, too).

Links

• Europe Heatwave Sees Temperatures Soar To Record Highs As Wildfires Take Hold In Spain 
• Europe battling heatwave so hot it's causing chicken manure to combust and spark bushfires
• In pictures: Europe swelters through early summer heatwave
• Europe's hellish heatwave is caused by a high-pressure weather system unlike any ever seen before
• European heatwave could be the norm in a climate change affected world
• Europe is cooking in yet another heatwave. Our attempts to outrun climate change are futile
• Mont Blanc is melting and is a warning of our future as climate change sees the world's temperature rise
• Europe heatwave: Temperatures to hit 45C in France as death toll grows from 'enormous' bubble of Saharan air sweeping continent
• Record-breaking heat wave cooks Europe

Heatwave - Climate Change Connections In One Simple Analogy

Forbes - Marshall Shepherd

Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd Dr. Marshall Shepherd is a leading international expert in weather and climate. He was the 2013 President of American Meteorological Society (AMS) and is Director of the University of Georgia’s (UGA) Atmospheric Sciences Program. Dr. Shepherd is the Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor and hosts The Weather Channel’s Weather Geeks Podcast, which can be found at all podcast outlets.  Prior to UGA, Dr. Shepherd spent 12 years as a Research Meteorologist at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center and was Deputy Project Scientist for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission

A devastating heatwave is happening in Europe right now. Temperature records are falling and not just by a small margin. The death toll is starting to rise and is prompting memories of the 2003 European heatwave that killed 30,000 to 50,000 people according to most estimates. The World Meteorological Organization tweeted on Friday:

For the first time on record, #France sees a temperature above 45°C. Villevieille measured 45.1°C this afternoon at 1459, topping the previous record of 44.3°C set just an hour previously, per @meteofrance  #heatwave #climatechange

According to meteorologists at Weather.com, a large high pressure system over Europe is the "weather" factor responsible for the heatwave.  Weather is, in part, governed by the space-time patterns of a series of waves in that fluid overhead called the atmosphere. It exhibits natural and day-to-day variability. An atmospheric "road block," if you will, near Greenland responsible for record melting there is also altering the aforementioned global wave pattern and causing extreme heat in Europe. Some voices will roll out the predictable narrative that heatwaves happen naturally. They do. However, an increasing body of scientific literature and simple common sense tells us that something else is going on too.

Oppressive heat is ravaging Europe. European Space Agency

University of Georgia atmospheric sciences professor John Knox offered one of the most compelling and clear analogies to explain why an anthropogenic climate change signal is increasingly associated with events like the European heatwave. Knox wrote:

The old record for the nation was 44.1C (111.4F), from the deadly 2003 heat wave in Europe. So, France just bested its high temperature by 3 degrees Fahrenheit. That's a lot. As with, say, 100-meter dash records in seconds, national temperature records in degrees should be broken in tenths, really hundredths--not integer values.If this were the world of track and field, a new record of this extremity would prompt immediate concerns about doping. The runner is fast, but no way is he or she THAT fast.

By the way, an astute Tweet noted by @robsobs pointed out, "Note that at least 12 other “runners” beat the previous record as well, and all of this happened before the usual peak heat period."

Persistent high pressure aloft is part of the weather pattern explaining the current European heatwave. Tomer Burg's Model Page

Of course, you have the small but very loud crowd that will spew cliche and irrelevant points that actual climate scientists are aware of or have long considered. For example, I saw a person imply that it is not a big deal to have a heatwave in the summer. Professor Knox agrees but points out that summer in France can be hot, but it should not be this hot and certainly not this early. Further, actual climate scientists have assessed how contemporary extreme events are linked to climate change. Previously in Forbes, I summarized the 2016 National Academy of Science report on attribution:

Confidence is greatest for extreme events related to aspects of temperature (e.g. extreme heat and lack of extreme cold events). Attribution science is relatively young but has advanced rapidly. The National Academy panel noted that attribution is most reliable when there are sound physical principles, consistent observational evidence, and the ability for numerical models to replicate the event. These "three legs of the stool" were used as benchmarks to rate the confidence.

The graphic  below conveys that there is very high confidence that the "fingerprint of climate change" is smudged all over the current generation of heatwaves on Earth. Numerous studies affirm that heat waves are increasing (and will continue to) in frequency or intensity as climate changes. A 2018 study in Environmental Research Letters found that across 571 cities:

• heatwave days increase in future climate model scenarios, particularly in southern Europe
• the greatest heatwave temperature increases are in central Europe

Another climate zombie theory (something that keeps coming up though scientists have long disproven it) seen floating around the Internet is that all of the numbers are wrong because the thermometers are in cities or near asphalt. You will typically see some cherry-picked image of a thermometer near a road or building. I always find this one to be amusing because climate scientists are smart enough to know about urban biases. In fact, I wrote an entire article (link) about this misguided attempt to confuse people.
The current heatwave is very dangerous. The combination of record high maximum and minimum temperatures is a double whammy for humans. Warm nighttime temperatures are particularly dangerous for vulnerable populations like the elderly, children, or people without sufficient air conditioning.
As I close, it should be noted that not once did I mention a polar bear or the year 2080. These are "here and now" concerns.

Confidence in extreme weather events and linkages to climate change. National Academy of Science report

Links

• New Temperature Record Set As France Swelters Through June Heatwave
• Is Climate Change Causing Europe’s Intense Heat? A Scientist Weighs In
• Europe Heatwave Sees Temperatures Soar To Record Highs As Wildfires Take Hold In Spain
• Air pollution and irrigation mask extremes of India’s 2019 heatwave
• Heatwave in northern Europe, summer 2018
• Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change
• Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C could prevent thousands of deaths in the U.S.
• Are we ready for the deadly heat waves of the future?
• The list of extreme weather caused by human-driven climate change grows
• Half a degree stole the climate spotlight in 2018
• Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees versus 2 has big benefits, the IPCC says
• These weather events turned extreme thanks to human-driven climate change
• South Asia could face deadly heat and humidity by the end of this century
• For three years in a row, Earth breaks heat record
• Global warming amplified death toll during 2003 European heat wave

It’s Time To Change The Climate Disaster Script. People Need Hope That Things Can Change

The Guardian - Nicky Hawkins*

The climate story must balance talk of urgency with hopeful and creative ideas if we are to inspire positive change 

‘The future of our planet – and how it is possible to save it – is a story worth telling.’ Extinction Rebellion activists in London. Photograph: Jamie Lowe/Courtesy of Extinction Rebellion 

“Hell  is coming,” one weather forecaster tweeted this week, warning not of further political turmoil but of the hottest heatwave in decades that’s advancing across continental Europe. Extreme weather events like this remind us that climate change is not a remote and distant threat – but a reality that is already taking an unacceptable human toll.
In recent months, Extinction Rebellion and the school climate strike have turned up the heat on the climate debate. They’ve both done an astonishing job of getting the climate change back on the public and political agendas. Their warnings of impending apocalypse, disruptive tactics and robust demands that others “tell the truth” about climate change have made huge waves. Parliament has declared a climate emergency. The Guardian has updated its own editorial guidelines to use language that accurately reflects the threat that climate change poses.
These demands and promises to tell the truth are based on a core premise: if people knew how bad this was we’d do differently. My organisation studies how we respond to and are shaped by the stories the we hear. I welcome the renewed energy within the climate movement – and the recognition of the power of language. But I fear we risk underplaying the part of “the truth” that could set us free.
Most people in the UK know climate change is a big problem. We understand it poses a grave threat to the future of our world. But we’re not trying to save ourselves – at least, we’re not trying hard enough.
Communications science offers some clues as to why we might be locked in this collective paralysis – somewhat able to see the problem but unable to deal with it. Our brains are hardwired to jump to conclusions without us noticing we’re doing it. When faced with serious and complex challenges such as climate change, we jump to “can’t be done” more readily than “let’s work through this problem and see the solutions”. While bleak, “nothing can be done” is a more rewarding conclusion because it’s quicker and easier to think.
The tendency to think fatalistically is fuelled by the stories we hear every day. The word “crisis” appears in our media dozens of times each week, appended to everything from poverty to patisseries, climate change to chick peas. It is background noise. Stating loudly that problems exist and have reached crisis point does not help us to move beyond said crises, especially if they are hard to understand and tough to tackle.
The stories we hear and tell matter. They shape how we understand the world and our part within it. Just as hearing migrants described in dehumanising ways flips a switch in our minds and creates automatic negative responses, a steady stream of wholly negative language and ideas creates mental shortcuts to despair and hopelessness.
Research is clear that to overcome fatalism and inspire change we must balance talk of urgency with talk of efficacy – the ability to get a job done. Too little urgency and “why bother?” is the default response. Too much crisis and we become overwhelmed, fatalistic or disbelieving – or a disjointed mixture of all three, which is where most of us get stuck when anyone talks about climate change.
We are all swayed by what we think other people think and what we see as normal. In post-war Rwanda a radio soap opera succeeded where other attempts to change relationships and interactions failed. By depicting positive relationships between opposing ethnic groups, the soap made these relationships seem normal and improved dynamics.

‘Extinction Rebellion and the schools climate strike have turned up the heat on the climate debate.’ Student climate protests in London. Photograph: Peter Marshall/Alamy Stock Photo

We need to change what’s normal and what’s perceived to be normal. And at the moment we think, and are constantly told, that most people don’t care enough. And the ones who do care are often not relatable to most people. We’re led to believe that inaction is the norm and that not much can be done. Upping the ante only by doing more to illustrate the scale of inaction and the high stakes doesn’t change this, it compounds it.
When Martin Luther King inspired a nation and the world he led with the dream, not the nightmare. When JFK persuaded the American public to support the Apollo programme he balanced the need to act with the ability to do so: “We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organise and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win.”
This is not the story being told about climate change. Instead we’re stuck in a climate disaster movie – and it’s not even a very good one. The threat is complex and can feel remote, but we’re told the chances of survival are slim. There are constant warnings but few heroes in sight. Our response is predictable: we switch off or we change the channel.
The climate story can evolve from its current emphasis on chastisement and detachment. The future of our planet – and how it is possible to save it – is a story worth telling. And retelling in ever more interesting and inspiring ways.
To help us avoid the worst effects of climate change we need a steady stream of stories that bring to life our capacity to dream big and get things done. We need high doses of creativity and ingenuity from a wide range of different voices. We need stories that show real life – and real life as it could be. We need to be able to see, feel and taste what we could do if leaders led and hope triumphed.

*Nicky Hawkins is a communications strategist for the FrameWorks Institute

Links

• Not Everyone Cares About Climate Change, But Reproach Won’t Change Their Minds
• Facebook’s Newest ‘Fact Checkers’ Are Koch-Funded Climate Deniers
• Changing Minds: How Do You Communicate With Climate Change Skeptics?
• Language Matters When The Earth Is In The Midst Of A Climate Crisis
• Graphic Design Could Be Holding Back Action On Climate Change – Here’s How 
• Can Comedy Help Communicate Climate Change?
• Study Shows IPCC Is Underselling Climate Change
• It’s Time For Climate Change Communicators To Listen To Social Science
• How The Weather Gets Weaponized In Climate Change Messaging

NSW Set To Fall Short Of Climate Targets But Victoria On Track

Sydney Morning Herald - Nicole Hasham

NSW and Queensland appear set to fall short of their self-imposed targets for cutting greenhouse gas pollution and phasing out fossil fuels, as responsibility for climate action in the electricity sector increasingly falls to the states.
But analysis by research and advisory group Green Energy Markets found Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania are on track to hit their climate goals.

NSW and Queensland must make up ground to meet their climate targets in the electricity sector, analysis has found. Credit: Michele Mossop

Electricity is considered the most cost-effective sector of the economy in which to slash greenhouse gas pollution, largely because zero-emission wind and solar technology already exists.
However, Australia's renewable energy target peaks in 2020 and since the collapse of the National Energy Guarantee last year, the Morrison government has not had a major policy to cut emissions in the sector. This leaves state policies as the key driver of investment in renewable energy generation.
Green Energy Markets examined progress on climate targets by the five eastern-most states that make up the national electricity market.
It found the most populous state, NSW, was not on pace to meet its target of net-zero emissions from the electricity sector by 2050.
On current trends, renewables would comprise 28 per cent of NSW's total electricity use by 2030, based on expected rooftop solar uptake and new wind and solar projects. This was well below the 46 per cent renewables share needed by 2030 if NSW was to meet its 2050 target, the report said.
NSW needs almost 5000 megawatts of new renewable energy projects over the next decade to bridge the gap.
Green Energy Markets director Tristan Edis said there had been commitments to construct 2800 megawatts of renewables projects in NSW over the past three years, so the state's catch-up task was "readily achievable" by 2030.
The Queensland Labor government wants renewables to make up 50 per cent of the electricity mix by 2030. However, the state is currently tracking towards a 29 per cent renewables share, based on existing wind and solar commitments and expected rooftop solar growth.

Hydro Tasmania's Devils Gate Dam spill. The state is tracking well to meet its target for 100 per cent renewable energy, including hydro power, by 2022.

If all states achieved their targets, enough construction jobs would be created to employ 32,000 people for a year, the analysis showed.
Victoria was already close to achieving its goal of 40 per cent electricity generation from renewable sources by 2025, the report found. It required just 2000 megawatts of new projects to reach its target of 50 per cent renewables by 2030.
South Australia was on track to meet its goal that renewables comprise 73.5 per cent of electricity consumption by 2030, and Tasmania did not need any new projects to reach its 100 per cent renewables goal by 2022.
A spokeswoman for the NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment said the state was “reducing emissions at one of the fastest rates in Australia”.
“The government is supporting record investment in solar and wind and, in the last five years, energy generation from these sources has tripled in NSW,” she said.
Between 2018 and 2022 the NSW government will spend $1.4 billion to drive investment in renewable energy, emerging technology and climate action.
Queensland Energy Minister Anthony Lynham said the Palaszczuk government was on track to meet its 50 per cent renewable target by 2030, citing a recent report by the Clean Energy Council that described the state as "the renewable energy construction capital of Australia".
"Despite the lack of any coherent or consistent energy policy from the commonwealth government, Queensland continues to embrace a renewable future," Dr Lynham said, adding that the states "have been left alone to do the heavy lifting on tackling climate change".

Links

• Green Energy Markets
• Renewable Energy Index
• Australia Is Counting On Cooking The Books To Meet Its Climate Targets
• Australia’s Carbon Emissions Highest On Record, Data Shows
• Australia Not On Track To Hit Paris Emissions Goals, As UN Warns Global Efforts Must Increase
• Australia To Miss 2030 Emissions Target By Massive Margin
• Scientists Slap Down Australia Government Over Fake Climate Claims
• Australia Quizzed By EU And China On Whether It Can Meet 2030 Paris Climate Target
• Scott Morrison's Pea-And-Thimble Trick
• 'Problem in waiting': why natural gas will wipe out Australia's emissions gains
• Australia's emissions still rising, says report withheld in defiance of Senate order

Action Now’: The Farmers Standing Up Against ‘Wilful Ignorance’ On Climate

The Guardian - Gabrielle Chan

The challenge for farmers is how to discuss global warming without scaring people out of food production

Farmers across Australia are trying to deal with increased risk by finding new income streams, and changing their cropping and stock management plans. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian 

The last election may have left the impression with voters that farmers and rural people in general do not accept climate science because there was no seismic shift of seats.
Yet this week the agricultural thinktank, the Australian Farm Institute, gathered farmers and their advocacy groups to talk about the impacts of global warming on the already risky business of farming.
Speaker after speaker described how their businesses were trying to deal with increased risk by finding new income streams, changing their cropping and stock management plans and still sometimes being blindsided.
Australia’s largest and oldest continuing pastoral company, AACo, owns 7m hectares of land or roughly 1% of Australia’s land mass.
After the loss of 43,000 head of cattle in record flooding in the Gulf of Carpentaria, AACo boss Hugh Killen’s message to the audience was clear.
“The direct effects of climate are real for us – we come to this discussion with first hand experience and a commitment to find a way forward comes from the heart,” Killen said.
“Slight changes to fire, flood and drought patterns can shift a very delicate balance. Increased flood, drought and fire can disrupt everything we do in their own right, as with risks we have seen in the gulf.
“Changing patterns can also tip the balance in favour of harmful flora and fauna and it can tip the balance away from replenishment of nutrients in the soil.”
He decried the tribal nature of politics and then he urged the room to act and engage on the subject, in spite of the noisy political debate.
“Those who call themselves believers demand action now,” Killen said. “We need to show them we share their conviction about the dangers that we all face.
“They need to know that we care, we take the science seriously and that we are taking action where we can to manage climate risks daily.”
It was an unusual conference because since Tony Abbott dismantled the carbon price in 2013, the largely conservative industry has tiptoed around the issue – a point recognised by the National Farmers’ Federation president, Fiona Simson, last year when she declared climate change was making drought worse.
Long-time climate campaigner and Boggabilla farmer Pete Mailler said there was a “widespread wilful ignorance” about climate change and that was creating the impasse on public policy responses.

Pete Mailler says ‘I can’t stand by and let people glibly talk up agriculture if they are not prepared to start tackling the hard issues now’.

“There’s this big issue that says we can’t really admit to climate change because that means we have to change all these other things and that’s really hard, we don’t really want to shut down coal-fired power stations,” Mailler said.
“The reality is I can’t stand by and let people glibly talk up agriculture if they are not prepared to start tackling the hard issues now. Because if we set the next generation up to walk off into the sunset and say ‘here you go’, it’s a great opportunity and if we don’t start to tackle these problems now we are setting them up to fail.”
Yet the challenge for farmers and their representative bodies is always how to discuss global warming without scaring people out of food production.
Verity Morgan-Schmidt, of Farmers for Climate Action, said no farmer wanted to be intentionally negative but there was a need to stare the challenges “in the face”.
“It’s a huge step forward for the industry to have such a trusted respected research organisation actively engage on the issue and raise the challenges,” she said. “We all want the industry to have vibrant future but we don’t want to sell people up the river.”
The National Farmers’ Federation chief executive, Tony Mahar, said climate change was increasing risk to the sector through more intense and severe droughts, high water prices, increased volatility of farm income, loss of productive land and relocation of industries.
The NFF declared its “priority ask” was a $1bn eco-systems services fund, following on from a $30m biodiversity stewardship fund announced in the federal election that would develop a framework to pay farmers to improve landscape and capture carbon.

National Farmers’ Federation CEO Tony Mahar, centre, says climate change is increasing risk to the sector through more intense and severe droughts, high water prices, increased volatility of farm income, loss of productive land and relocation of industries. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP

Mahar echoed the Craik report, which also recommended the government introduce “market-based” National Biodiversity Conservation Trust fund for eco-services.
“We are talking about this as the new Landcare and being a system that will recognise, reward, and put a value on some of the systems and services and land management processes that farmers undertake every day, every year, and have done for decades but haven’t been able to get an income stream from that.”
The World Wildlife Fund has backed has backed the principle of paying farmers for good environment practices.
The WWF’s Ian McConnel said farmer payments for eco-system work would be an important driver for positive change.
“We need to reward people when they are adopting practices, especially when those practices don’t come as a win-win to production,” McConnel. “We need to prove there’s a biodiversity measurement. There’s a whole range of challenges around that, but we need to have very good models based on data that says if you do this practice, we see this improvement.”
McConnel said the WWF had already designed farm practices applicable to Germany where farmers could choose from a range of works from restoring wetlands to vegetation connectivity and get paid a premium.
McConnel said while planting and retaining trees was certainly “the easier way” to improve environmental outcomes, capturing soil carbon was potentially a longer term solution for farmers.
The NFF’s $1bn target was “absolutely” achievable, he said, and could come from a mix of government funding and private investors.
“The world needs pretty large-scale investment if we are going to turn the head on biodiversity loss and carbon so we are going to have to see some pretty big investment in that space and I think the willingness is there from both the public and private to invest,” McConnel said.

Links

• Act Now On Emissions Says Farmers For Climate Action 
• 'He Will Fail Farmers': Morrison Pressured To Tackle Climate Change As Part Of Drought Pledge 
• The Future Of Farming In The Era Of Climate Change 
• Farmers Asked To Share Their Climate Change Experience 
• Farmers Challenge Nationals' Claim Drought Unrelated To Climate Change 
• Drought-Stricken Farmers Challenge Coalition's Climate Change Stance In TV Ad 
• Farmers For Climate Action Say A Unified Parliament Needed To Address Looming Crisis 

Australia Won't Reach Paris Target Without Action On Transport, LNG And Coal, Expert Says

The Guardian - Adam Morton

Morrison government urged to address where greenhouse gas emissions are rising substantially

Emissions released during LNG processing and coalmining have jumped 55%, which will impact Australia’s Paris target, an Australia Institute report says.

The challenge the Morrison government faces in meeting future climate targets without new policies is underlined by an analysis that breaks down how significantly greenhouse gas emissions are increasing from transport, natural gas and coalmining.
Since 2005, the year against which the government has chosen to benchmark its Paris target, Australia’s emissions from transport are up 23%.
Pollution from burning fossil fuels – mainly natural gas, but also coal – in manufacturing, construction and domestic heating has risen 30%. “Fugitive” emissions released during liquefied natural gas (LNG) processing and coalmining have jumped 55%.



Other parts of the economy are getting cleaner – emissions from electricity generation, which is still the biggest chunk of national emissions at about a third, are down 10%. There have been smaller cuts from agriculture, waste and industrial processes.
But the analysis of government data by Hugh Saddler, an energy consultant and ANU honorary associate professor at the Crawford School of Public Policy, suggests Australia cannot meet the target it set at the Paris climate summit without policies to address where emissions are rising substantially.
He said at the moment the government does not have any.
“They absolutely don’t have any policy to stop emissions rising from transport and in the other areas such as LNG and coal exports the policy is to actually encourage them to grow – the government would like to think they would keep going up and up,” Saddler said.
The data is contained in Saddler’s latest national emissions audit, which is published by progressive research and lobby group the Australia Institute.
Australia’s total emissions are now estimated to be 12.7% less than they were in 2005. They have increased each year since 2015, when they were 14.5% below the benchmark year. The Coalition’s target is a 26-28% cut by 2030.
Saddler said it showed why the Morrison government was pushing hard to use what are known as carryover credits to meet its Paris target. The credits represent the amount Australia expects to finish ahead of its 2020 target under the previous climate deal, the Kyoto Protocol.
Several countries – notably members of the Association of Small Island States such as Tuvalu – challenged Australia at United Nations climate talks in Bonn, Germany last week over its plan to use carryover credits. The European Union and New Zealand are among others opposed to their use.
Opponents say using carryover credits would effectively reduce Australia’s 2030 target to a 16% cut.
They say carryover credits are merely a reflection that Australia set easy-to-meet targets under the Kyoto Protocol – a pollution increase between 1990 and 2010, then a 5% cut between 2000 and 2020 – and that all countries will need to drop accounting tricks and make much deeper cuts if the world is to limit global heating to as close to 1.5C as possible.
Richie Merzian, the Australia Institute’s climate and energy program director, said using carryover credits was the most egregious example of the Coalition government’s contempt for the international climate system. “Australia is isolated as the only OECD country pushing to exploit this loophole,” he said.
A recent policy brief by the Investor Group on Climate Change says carryover credits were included in the initial Kyoto deal as an incentive for ambitious countries to go beyond their formal targets. In reality, it has just rewarded countries that set weak targets, such as Australia and Russia.
It is still unclear how carryover credits will be treated under the Paris deal. Countries are expected to explain how they will meet their targets and – unless there is a unanimous agreement to ban carryover credits – they could technically just include them. But they would be likely to face increasing criticism.
The Paris agreement also says countries will become more ambitious over time and that their commitments will reflect their “highest possible ambition”. Opponents say carryover credits do not fit this definition as they transparently weaken a target.
When asked about carryover credits, the government says Australia has made “responsible, achievable and balanced commitments” to reduce emissions and has a strong track record in meeting and beating its targets.
The minister for emissions reduction, Angus Taylor, has also argued that the growth in emissions from Australia’s rapidly expanding LNG industry should be seen as a positive as the gas would be reducing the amount of coal burned in Asia. The Saddler report suggests this makes little sense given the government is also supporting a significant expansion of coalmining in Queensland.
Saddler said there was a possibility that emissions could be reduced where they are currently growing through state government and city-based policies and changes in technology and on international markets. He gives the example of electric vehicles, which are expected to be cost competitive with petrol cars by 2025.
“One of the things we can hope for is that technological change comes along in the absence of any government policy,” he said.
A government policy document released before the election estimated by 2030 about 100m tonnes of emissions reduction would come from unspecified “technology improvements and other sources of abatement”.
Other trends in the report include:

• Queensland has the highest emissions in the country. Emissions grew in Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory between 2014 and 2017 while falling everywhere else.
• National emissions would have been expected to increase even more this year were it not for the devastating drought and floods in eastern Australia that killed huge numbers of sheep and cattle.
• Diesel fuel emissions surged 50% between 2011 and 2018, increasing significantly both on the road and in power generation at mining sites.
• But diesel use has fallen each month since December despite no obvious change in policy. If that continues for the rest of the year, it will be the first time it has happened since 1990-91 – the low point of Australia’s last economic recession.

Links

• Australia Is Counting On Cooking The Books To Meet Its Climate Targets
• Australia’s Carbon Emissions Highest On Record, Data Shows
• Australia Not On Track To Hit Paris Emissions Goals, As UN Warns Global Efforts Must Increase
• Australia To Miss 2030 Emissions Target By Massive Margin
• Scientists Slap Down Australia Government Over Fake Climate Claims
• Australia Quizzed By EU And China On Whether It Can Meet 2030 Paris Climate Target
• Scott Morrison's Pea-And-Thimble Trick
• 'Problem in waiting': why natural gas will wipe out Australia's emissions gains
• Australia's emissions still rising, says report withheld in defiance of Senate order

Fears Northern Australian Mangrove Forests Could 'Drown' Due To Rising Seas

ABC News - Nick Hose

Northern Australia's mangroves could be under threat by rising sea levels. (ABC News: Nick Hose)

Key Points: Mangroves could be wiped out by the end of the century, researchers say Research is being done to work out how the ecosystem will cope with rising seas Sea level rise is happening at a faster rate in northern Australia than in the south

It's low tide on a sunny, dry season afternoon in the mangrove forest at East Arm in Darwin Harbour.
As the tide laps at the dense tangle of roots that run for thousands of hectares along northern Australia's pristine coastline, it's hard to comprehend these forests could be wiped out by the end of the century.
"They're definitely vulnerable," said Madeline Goddard, a PhD candidate at Charles Darwin University.
Ms Goddard is studying mangroves to see how they will adapt to rising sea levels.

Mangroves could drown
"Across the world the sea level is rising, increasing the amount of time mangroves spend underwater, potentially flooding and killing these valuable forests," Ms Goddard said.
The Bureau of Meteorology has been monitoring sea level rise and found it is happening at a faster rate in northern Australia than in the south.
"We've seen for the last 7,000 years the water level has slowly risen and that mangroves have persisted, they are really resilient," Ms Goddard said.

"But they can't keep up with our really dramatic projected rise."

Charles Darwin University PhD candidate Madeline Goddard (right) studies mangroves in northern Australia (ABC News: Nick Hose)

 
It is a fear shared by the Australian Marine Conservation Society.
Northern Territory manager Jason Fowler said the mangroves could drown because sediment was accumulating slower than the rate that the sea level was rising.

"So the mangroves will literally run out of mud, slowly get flooded, and drown out," he said.

"We've already seen that mangroves are vulnerable to climate change after one of the worst instances of mangrove forest dieback struck Australia's Gulf of Carpentaria in the summer of 2016."

Carbon-storing superpowers
Ms Goddard said there was a huge amount of carbon that mangroves store in the mud.
"But also in the forest themselves," she said.
It's a superpower that could prove crucial in the fight against climate change.
"Mangroves store a lot of carbon — upwards of 50 times more than identical areas of rainforest," Ms Goddard said.

Mangroves in northern Australia are under threat. (ABC News: Nick Hose)

 
Best hope of survival could lie in careful planning
Ms Goddard said mangroves might be able to adapt to sea level rise if they have space to grow.

"What's really critical is they can also move landward," Ms Goddard said.

She said many coastlines in northern Australia were not developed, which would leave new habitat for mangroves to move into.
"As you get elevated sea level rise you get increased flooding times, and so the area behind the mangroves has potential for them to move into," she said.

Links

• Extreme weather explains 'unprecedented' mangrove deaths: study
• 'Shocking images' reveal death of 10,000 hectares of mangroves
• 'They Died Of Thirst': Extreme Conditions Wipe Out Forest Over 1000 Kilometres
• 'Shocking images' reveal death of 10,000 hectares of mangroves across Northern Australia
• Mexican desert mangroves – small but valuable in dealing with climate change
• Extreme weather likely behind worst recorded mangrove dieback in northern Australia
• Rising seas threaten to drown important mangrove forests, unless we intervene