(AU) Trillions Up In Smoke: The Staggering Economic Cost Of Climate Change Inaction

The New Daily - Ben Silvester

The economic damages of the COVID-19 emergency provide a bitter taste of what we face every year if Australia sticks to its present high emissions path, new modelling indicates.

Protestors at the global climate strike rally in Melbourne in September 2019. Photo: Christina Jingjie Liu

Over the next 30 years, increasing economic damages from climate change will cost the Australian economy at least $1.89 trillion – or roughly 4 per cent of projected GDP each year – if current emissions policies are maintained.

New research from the University of Melbourne reveals annual economic damages by 2038 will be comparable to the current estimated annual cost of COVID-19 in Australia.

Archie, 3 years old says “I have to save the world?” Photographed on the steps of Old Treasury Building during the Global Climate Strike Rally in 2019. Photo: Chenxi Gui

There have been many attempts at estimating the economic cost of climate change, but the researchers said this is the most detailed and globally comprehensive to date.

The modelling covers 139 countries in four potential warming scenarios from now to 2100.

The projections draw on a modelling framework in the journal Earth’s Future in 2018 and have been continually updated through adding data points for bushfires and other ecological events.

“There is no model in the world that is nearly this computationally large,” said lead researcher Professor Tom Kompas of the university’s school of biosciences.

“It’s as much as 10 times larger than standard basic models.”

The detail built into the projections allowed researchers to drill down and discover how each country will be affected by rising temperatures at particular points in the coming century.

Previous models could only provide average damages across large regions or the world as a whole.

It found the global economic impact of climate change varied enormously, with countries nearer to the equator suffering most.

Sydney’s air pollution was 11 times worse than harmful levels during the bushfires in 2019. Photo: Getty 

By 2100, the GDP of West African countries like Togo and Cote d’Ivoire will be falling by 25 per cent year on year.

South-East Asia will be hit almost as hard, with countries like the Philippines and Indonesia recording annual falls of about 20 per cent.

The global effect, while less acute, is still severe, with global average GDP falling by 7.2 per cent ($31 trillion) each year by 2100.

The cumulative global economic damages from now to 2100 were found to be more than $US600 trillion ($828 trillion).

In Australia, greenhouse gas emissions dipped marginally (0.3 per cent) in the year to September, having grown steadily over the past seven years, but they are projected to grow again in the coming decade.

Global emissions are following a similar course.

If this trajectory is maintained, the research found that the economic cost of climate change for Australia alone will total at least $1.89 trillion by 2050 and exceed $100 billion in annual damages by 2038.

Professor Kompas described the impact of the coronavirus pandemic as “devastating”, but he said it also puts the huge economic threat of climate change into context.

“By 2038, on average projections, climate change may well be dealing a COVID-sized blow to the Australian economy every year … [it] will imply more job losses, unemployment and deeper cuts in GDP. And those damages will continue to increase disproportionately year after year,” Professor Kompas said.

Much of the economic damage will be from rising sea levels wreaking havoc on property, infrastructure and agriculture along the coast.

It is calculated that damages of more than $992 billion over the next three decades, or more than $30 billion a year, on average, from sea level rise and storm surge alone.

A grounded ship following a storm surge in the Philippines. Photo: Getty

The modelling also predicts productivity losses of $261 billion as rising temperatures make it harder for certain crops to grow and for outdoor labourers to work, while losses in biodiversity total $277 billion with thousands of species at risk of extinction.

“Many of these damages ramp up over time,” Professor Kompas said.

But he said Australia is already getting a taste of what’s around the corner, the past “Black Summer” bushfires being an example.

The researchers tallied up the damage to property, infrastructure and agriculture caused by the recent bushfires, assessing the cost at $48 billion.

And with research suggesting Australia will have two more “megafires” before the end of the decade, Professor Kompas calculates that by 2050 bushfires will have cost the economy about $360 billion.

The $1.89 trillion cost to the economy in the next 30 years is almost certainly an underestimate, he said.

His research does not yet account for damage to Australia’s major environmental assets, pollution from burning fossil fuels, tourism losses and natural disasters other than bushfires.

“It’s still really a narrow set of damages … and even when you think about these severe damages, we’re still greatly underestimating overall potential impacts.”

John Quiggin, a University of Queensland economist who sits on the board of the Australian government’s Climate Change Authority, said that the $1.89 trillion figure was “reasonable” and definitely not “out of the ballpark”.

In 2016 Australia was one of the 195 countries that signed onto the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to between 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In its 2018 interim report, the Intercontinental Panel on Climate Change said this would be extremely unlikely if global emissions don’t reach “net zero” by 2050.

The federal government has refused to commit to this target, saying their approach “is not to have a target without a plan”. But Kompas said the cost of meeting the target is a small fraction of the damages if it’s not met.

In a separate study, now under peer review, he calculated that achieving net zero emissions by 2050 in Australia would cost $106.81 billion over the next 30 years. This accounts for the loss in exports moving away from carbon, the cost of changing land use and the transition costs of moving to renewable energy.

“So when you compare the damages from climate change to the cost of a net-zero renewable target, the cost of the target is a hell of a lot less. Instead of almost $2 trillion it’s about $100 billion,” he said.

“It’s a no-brainer to move to a clean energy target.”

Links

• (AU) What Are The Full Economic Costs To Australia From Climate Change?
• Climate Change Costs To Hit These Australian Regions Hardest
• Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think
• Climate Change Costings That Don't Count The Cost Of Inaction Are Worthless
• Companies Expect Climate Change To Cost Them $1 Trillion In 5 Years
• Climate Change Could Cost The U.S. Up To 10.5 Percent Of Its GDP By 2100, Study Finds
• How Much Would It Cost To Stop Climate Change? It's A Staggering Amount

(AU) Why Climate Change Has The Potential To Cause More Pandemics

AFR - Tom McIlroy

Biosecurity leaders and Nobel prize winner Peter Doherty are lobbying the federal government to reduce the risk of animal-borne diseases caused by environmental degradation and climate change.

A group of former chief veterinary officers and senior government advisers have asked for renewed action to limit greenhouse gas emissions and have warned that a repeat of the COVID-19 pandemic could come about from the damage to natural ecosystems and increased contact between humans and animals carrying potentially deadly pathogens.

Peter Doherty: "The consequences stretch right across the wellbeing equation of animals and humans." Arsineh Houspian

In a letter to Prime Minister Scott Morrison, the group said that between 60 per cent and 70 per cent of all new diseases affecting humans had originated from animals, including COVID-19.

Professor Doherty, a leading immunologist and medical researcher, said governments should listen to the advice of scientific experts, including on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to a net-zero level by 2050.

"You've got a key driver in the accumulation of greenhouse gases, and then the consequences stretch right across the wellbeing equation of animals and humans," he said.

"We're starting to see groups like the National Farmers Federation coming in, with the livestock industry and now a group of chief veterinary officers saying we need to act on this. None of these people are on the left of politics and they're all deeply embedded in practical issues."

Source of viral diseases

Former Australian inspector-general of biosecurity Helen Scott-Orr said climate change was causing a range of diseases to appear for the first time in animal species, posing a risk to Australian agriculture and industry.

"Animals which previously had less contact with people spread diseases they may have carried harmlessly for millennia. Animals such as bats have been the source of viral diseases and it is very likely they were the source of COVID," she said.

"The closest relative of COVID-19 is found in horseshoe bats in southern China and also in south-east Asia. There are other closely related viruses found in animals such as the pangolin, sold at wildlife wet markets such as you had in Wuhan."

The letter to Mr Morrison said increased contact between humans and animal reservoirs of pathogens could lead to future biosecurity emergencies and economic damage.

The group called for scientific expertise to guide climate policy, as medical advice had led the pandemic response.

"It is now apparent that global warming is one of the key drivers of changes in disease distribution and emergence of new, potentially dangerous diseases, as well as increasingly severe extreme weather," the letter, signed by 18 biosecurity experts, said.

"During our times of service, we witnessed the changing distribution of pests and diseases affecting Australia’s land-based and marine animals as climate zones began to shift. Like all Australians, we were also shocked by the devastating effects of this past summer’s massive bushfires.

"We believe that sustained and urgent action based on the best available science and technology can reverse our current trajectory towards unsustainable and irreversible changes in climate."

Links

• Climate change and human health
• Q&A: Could climate change and biodiversity loss raise the risk of pandemics?
• Potential Impact of Climate Change on Pandemic Influenza Risk
• How Climate Change Is Contributing to Skyrocketing Rates of Infectious Disease
• Ignoring Link Between Climate Change And Increasing Threat Of Pandemics Is ‘Dangerous,’ Scientists Say
• How deadly disease outbreaks could worsen as the climate changes
• The wicked problems of pandemics and climate change
• Redirect military budgets to tackle climate change and pandemics
• Fighting infectious diseases: The connection to climate change
• How climate change could expose new epidemics
• Dispatch From 2030: What a Global Pandemic Taught Us About Tackling Climate Change 

More Than 1 Billion People Face Displacement By 2050: Report

Reuters - Luke Baker

Food and water shortages, together with climate-related disasters, will uproot growing numbers of people across Africa, Central Asia and Middle East, warns think-tank

FILE PHOTO: Zeinab, 14, sits as she holds her nephew at a camp for internally displaced people from drought hit areas in Dollow, Somalia April 4, 2017. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra

Key points: 19 countries with the highest number of ecological threats are among the world’s 40 least peaceful countries including Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Chad, India and Pakistan. Over one billion people live in 31 countries where the country’s resilience is unlikely to sufficiently withstand the impact of ecological events by 2050, contributing to mass population displacement. Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa are the regions facing the largest number of ecological threats. By 2040, a total of 5.4 billion people – more than half of the world’s projected population – will live in the 59 countries experiencing high or extreme water stress, including India and China. 5 billion people could suffer from food insecurity by 2050; which is an increase of 1.5 billion people from today. The lack of resilience in countries covered in the ETR will lead to worsening food insecurity and competition over resources, increasing civil unrest and mass displacement, exposing developed countries to increased influxes of refugees.

LONDON - Rapid population growth, lack of access to food and water and increased exposure to natural disasters mean more than 1 billion people face being displaced by 2050, according to a new analysis of global ecological threats.

Compiled by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), a think-tank that produces annual terrorism and peace indexes, the Ecological Threat Register uses data from the United Nations and other sources to assess eight ecological threats and predict which countries and regions are most at risk.

“Ecological threats and climate change pose serious challenges to global peacefulness. Over the next 30 years lack of access to food and water will only increase without urgent global cooperation. In the absence of action civil unrest, riots and conflict will most likely increase. COVID-19 is already exposing gaps in the global food chain”. 
Steve Killelea, Founder & Executive Chairman of the Institute for Economics and Peace

With the world’s population forecast to rise to nearly 10 billion by 2050, intensifying the scramble for resources and fuelling conflict, the research shows as many as 1.2 billion people living in vulnerable areas of sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East may be forced to migrate by 2050.

By comparison, ecological factors and conflict led to the displacement of some 30 million people in 2019, the report said.

“This will have huge social and political impacts, not just in the developing world, but also in the developed, as mass displacement will lead to larger refugee flows to the most developed countries,” said Steve Killelea, IEP’s founder.

The register groups the threats into two broad categories: food insecurity, water scarcity and population growth in one; and natural disasters including floods, droughts, cyclones, rising sea levels and rising temperatures in the other.

The result is an analysis assessing how many threats each of some 150 countries faces and their capacity to withstand them.

FILE PHOTO: Caked mud is seen before a small patch of water as the region deals with a prolonged drought at a dam near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, January 18, 2020. Picture taken January 18, 2020. REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo

While some, such as India and China, are most threatened by water scarcity in the coming decades, others like Pakistan, Iran, Mozambique, Kenya and Madagascar face a toxic combination of threats, as well as a diminishing ability to deal with them.

“This will have huge social and political impacts, not just in the developing world, but also in the developed, as mass displacement will lead to larger refugee flows to the most developed countries. Ecological change is the next big global threat to our planet and people’s lives, and we must unlock the power of business and government action to build resilience for the places most at risk.“ 
Steve Killelea, Founder & Executive Chairman of the Institute for Economics and Peace

“These countries are broadly stable now but have high exposure to ecological threats and low and deteriorating ‘positive peace’, which means they are at higher risk of future collapse,” the 90-page analysis found.

Killelea said the world now has 60% less fresh water available than it did 50 years ago, while demand for food is forecast to rise by 50% in the next 30 years, driven in large part by the expansion of the middle class in Asia.

Those factors, combined with natural disasters that are only likely to increase in frequency because of climate change, mean even stable states are vulnerable by 2050.

The IEP said it hoped the register, which may become an annual analysis, would shape aid and development policies, with more emphasis and funding going towards climate-related impacts.

Links

• Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
• Ecological Threat Register 2020
• (AU) Too Hot For Humans? First Nations People Fear Becoming Australia's First Climate Refugees 
• Defence Chief Sounds Warning On Surge Of Climate Change Refugees 
• Climate Change Could Threaten Up To 2 Billion Refugees By 2100 
• The Coming Wave Of Climate Displacement
• ‘Disaster Alley’: Australia Could Be Set To Receive New Wave Of Climate Refugees 
• UN Ruling Could Be A Game-Changer For Climate Refugees And Climate Action 
• Climate Change Could Cost The U.S. Up To 10.5 Percent Of Its GDP By 2100, Study Finds

(AU) Class Action To Stop Planned Coal Mine Extension Filed By Climate Action-Focused Australian Teenagers

ABC News - Michael Slezak | Penny Timms


Australian teenagers explain why they are seeking an injunction to stop a major coal mine extension.

Key Points The injunction, an Australian first, is part of a growing wave of climate litigation claims Rather than making the claim under environmental law, the class action asserts Federal Minister Sussan Ley has a common law duty of care for young people The class action argues that by digging up and burning coal, climate change will be made worse and that will harm young people in the future

A class action launched on behalf of young people everywhere seeks an injunction to stop the Australian Government approving an extension to Whitehaven's Vickery coal mine, arguing it will harm young people by exacerbating climate change.

The injunction, filed in the Federal Court on Tuesday, is a first for Australia.

An expert says it could break new legal ground with widespread ramifications, causing problems for any new coal mine in Australia — and possibly any fossil fuel project — if it is successful.

Though the injunction itself is unique, it is part of a growing wave of climate litigation in Australia and comes less than two months after 23-year-old Melbourne law student Katta O'Donnell filed a class action against the Australian Government for failing to disclose the risk climate change poses to Australians' super and other low risk investments.

Izzy Raj-Seppings, 13, is one of the representative plaintiffs in this new case, and filed the injunction along with seven other young people aged from 13 to 17 — many of whom met during School Strike 4 Climate and were looking for more ways to take action.

The Sydney high school student made headlines last year when police ordered her to move on after organising a School Strike 4 Climate protest outside the Prime Minister's Kirribilli residence.

Izzy Raj-Seppings during the protest in December. (AAP: Steven Saphore)

She said climate change worried her, but taking part in action such as the lawsuit gave her hope.

"We're trying to get the Federal Environment Minister to prevent the Vickery coal mine going ahead because we believe she has a duty of care for young Australians and young people all over the world," Ms Raj-Seppings said.

"I definitely have hope because if you look around, you can see all the incredible climate activists, young and old, all these people fighting for what's right.

"And we are making change."

Izzy Raj-Seppings with her father Barrie Seppings at Dee Why beach. (ABC News: Brendan Esposito)

First of its kind

Rather than making the claim under environmental law, the class action claims the Federal Minister, Sussan Ley, has a common law duty of care for young people and cannot approve actions that will make climate change worse.

The class action argues that by digging up and burning coal, climate change will be made worse and that will harm them in the future.

David Barnden from Equity Generation Lawyers, who is representing the students, said the impacts of climate change on youth go "over and above regular people" because of their age.

David Barnden from Equity Generation Lawyers. (ABC News: Brendan Esposito)

"The law operates to protect vulnerable people by saying that people in power have a duty to protect them," Mr Barnden said.

"In this particular case, we say that the Environment Minister has a duty to protect vulnerable people.

"What this case does is say that 'the coal needs to stay in the ground and it can't be burnt'.

"And the minister has the obligation to protect younger people and not approve the mine."

Mr Barnden is a specialist in climate litigation and is also representing Ms O'Donnell in her action against the Federal Government as well as 26 year-old Mark McVeigh, who revealed in January he is suing super fund REST for not doing enough on climate change.

This new case is a class action, with the eight young people claiming to represent every person in the world under the age of 18.

Avav Princi, Izzy Raj-Seppings, Veronica Hester, Laura Kirwan and Ambrose Hayes are all part of the action. (ABC News: Brendan Esposito)

Class actions allow a group of people to bring a legal action on behalf of a larger group who are affected in a similar way.

Mr Barnden argues a precedent for this case was set in 2016 when an injunction stopped the then minister for immigration from moving a refugee to anywhere besides Australia, because he had a duty of care for her.

Emrys Nekvapil, one of the barristers who won that case, is also representing the students.

'Huge ramifications' for coal

The mine at the centre of the case is Whitehaven's proposed extension to the Vickery Coal Mine north of Gunnedah in NSW.

Whitehaven's application to build the extension is now before Environment Minister Sussan Ley, who must decide whether to approve it or not.

The Vickery Extension Project proposes an open-cut coal mine about 25km north of Gunneah in north-west NSW. (Whitehaven Coal)

The case asks for an injunction on the Minister's decision.

If it proceeds, additional coal from the mine extension will create roughly 100 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gasses, according to the NSW Independent Planning Commission — or about as much as is created each year in Australia by all forms of domestic transport combined.

Whitehaven did not respond to a request for comment.

A spokesperson for Environment Minister Sussan Ley confirmed they received the injunction application, but could not comment as the matter was before the courts.

The young people and lawyers behind the injunction application said it was about much more than one coal mine.

"If we win and if we can injunct the minister from making a decision to approve it, it could have huge ramifications for other new coal mines in Australia," Mr Barnden said.

"And it might mean the end of any new coal mine in Australia.

"We're playing to win."

Barrister and legal academic Chris McGrath said the case would be difficult.

"That's the nature of big litigation like this," Dr McGrath said. "You're breaking new ground — they're hard by nature.

"You can see a whole heap of obstacles and things that will be thrown up by the Government to try and hinder the case going forward and block it."

The teens said they were in it to win. (ABC News: Brendan Esposito)

Dr McGrath said even they did win, the impact was unclear.

He said it would be a thorn in the side of fossil fuel projects in the future, but governments would likely still be able to find ways of approving coal mines.

But according to Izzy Raj-Seppings, allowing coal mines to go ahead — no matter where the coal was burned — is harming her future.

"It will create more climate refugees and we'll have a lasting health impact on all of us," she said. 

Links

• Portuguese Children Sue 33 Countries Over Climate Change At European Court
• Tessa Khan: ‘Litigation Is A Powerful Tool In The Environmental Crisis’
• (AU) ‘A Wake-Up Call’: Why This Student Is Suing The Government Over The Financial Risks Of Climate Change
• (AU) Climate Change Litigation: The Australian Government Gets Sued
• The Law That Could Make Climate Change Illegal
• Climate Battles Are Moving Into The Courtroom, And Lawyers Are Getting Creative
• Portuguese Children Sue 33 Countries Over Climate Change At European Court
• Climate Change Has Created 'Altered World' For Young People, Lawyers Say In Child Climate Case
• Young Canadians Sue Government For Failing To Act On Climate Change
• Lethal Heating: Legal Posts

(AU) Last Season's Climate Catastrophes Cost Insurers $5.4b

Sydney Morning Herald - Peter Hannam

Australia's most recent climate-related disasters cost insurers more than $5 billion as global warming increased the risk of catastrophic bushfires, damaging hailstorms and more powerful cyclones and east coast lows, the country's biggest insurer says.

In the second edition of its Severe Weather in a Changing Climate report, released on Wednesday, IAG said Australia was already being affected by more extreme weather as the atmosphere warmed. New research indicates those impacts are likely to continue to increase.

Bushfire risks are on the rise across almost all parts of Australia as the climate heats up, IAG says in a new report. Credit:  Nick Moir 

Just four events – last season's massive bushfires, hailstorms in Canberra and the Sunshine Coast, and February's east coast low – will generate insurance claims of about $5.4 billion, Mark Leplastrier, IAG's executive manager, natural perils, said. Claims for the fires alone will be about $2.3 billion.

The report found bushfire weather risks will increase across almost all parts of Australia, with seasons lengthening and the windows for safely conducting so-called hazard-reduction fires narrowing.

"When the conditions get right, they get right big time," said Greg Holland, an emeritus senior scientist with the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research, which worked with IAG on the report.

The recent fire season demonstrated that building codes introduced after the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria were inadequate for the most extreme days and will need to be tightened.

Mr Leplastrier said that since bushfire risk, much like floods, falls dramatically the further a home is from the peril, governments should consider intervening to halt residents moving into high-threat spots.

"There's not a mechanism to actually to stop or prohibit building like there is in flood," he said. "Those are some of the tougher decisions we’re going to have to make as a broader approach."

Many homes and vehicles in Berowra Heights sustained damage when a hailstorm hit the area in December 2018. Studies show hailstones are getting bigger. Credit: Wolter Peeters

Another peril on the rise is hailstorms, with research showing events with hailstones up to 5 centimetres in diameter or larger have increased in frequency in south-eastern Australia.Areas facing increased risk include Sydney, Adelaide, Perth, Canberra and Melbourne, but also inland areas such as the Hunter Valley and central and eastern Victoria, the report found.

East coast lows, several of which have battered NSW, are also changing in ways that are likely to increase their impacts on coastal regions.

Dr Holland said that while the overall frequency of such lows may be trending lower, for the more dangerous ones that draw in large amounts of tropical moisture there has been a "substantial increase".

Heavy surf stirred up by an east coast low off the NSW coast in July 2020. The more damaging type of such events is on the increase in a warming world, IAG says. Credit: Nick Moir

Not only is there more rain to dump, winds are stronger, damaging properties but also whipping up the bigger surf that increases beach erosion.

For NSW, the hotspots are Bega on the South Coast, the Hawkesbury-Nepean valley and the Hunter region, where there is both the uplift of air and a funnelling effect from the geography.

"These are the areas that are the most prone to get significant damage," Dr Holland said.

Aerial photos of Lismore showing flooding from the aftermath of Cyclone Debbie in March 2017. Cyclones are tracking further south and the share of major ones is on the rise. Credit: Rotorwing Helicopter Services

With the atmosphere holding 7 per cent more moisture for each degree of warming, other big weather events such as cyclones or floods are also trending towards more extremes and are projected to continue to do so.

Across the world, the share of cyclones with a category 4 or 5 strength have increased from about a one-in-10 proportion in pre-industrial times to about one in every four or five now, a ratio also observed off Australia's north-east coast, the report said.

Rainfall dumped offshore from cyclones has been rising but overland the pace of increase is two to three times, Dr Holland said.

Likewise, massive flooding events that might have happened once in 1000 years in areas such as the Murray Darling Basin may become once in a century events, catching planners and residents off-guard.

“We are getting to the point where we are going to experience things that we didn’t know existed," Dr Holland said.

Links

• Severe weather in a changing climate
• (AU) How Climate Change Is Contributing To Soaring Insurance Costs
• (AU) Climate Change-Driven Disasters Making Insurance Premiums Too Dear For Farmers
• (AU) Insuring Your Home May Get Harder And More Expensive As Climate Change Increases Risks
• Australian Insurance Companies Abandon Thermal Coal Industry
• Insurers Urge Morrison To Take On Climate Action
• Lethal Heating: Insurance Posts
• Dawn of 'green steel' and the revival of Australian manufacturing
• Taking care of business also means looking after the planet
• Government to fund gas and carbon storage via clean energy programs
• Australian ecologists say their findings are 'commonly suppressed'zzz

(AU) ‘Climigration’: Whole Communities Are Moving Due To Climate Change

The Big Smoke Australia - Tony Matthews

‘Climigration’ defines the forced migration of communities impacted by climate change. Louisiana was the first state-sanctioned move, but they certainly will not be the last.

Author Dr Tony Matthews is an award-winning Urban and Environmental Planner, with portfolios in academia, practice and the media. He is a faculty member at Griffith University, where he is a Senior Lecturer in the School of Environment & Science and the Cities Research Institute.

Climate change increasingly threatens communities all over the world.

News of fires, floods and coastal erosion devastating lives and livelihoods seems almost constant.

The latest fires in Queensland and New South Wales mark the start of the earliest bushfire season the states have ever seen.

What happens when climate change causes extreme events to become chronic, potentially rendering some communities unviable?

This question is fuelling a new strand of global research focused on “climigration”. Climigration is the planned relocation of entire communities to new locations further from harm. And it has already begun.

It takes a lot to convince a community to move. But extreme events disrupt communities socially, economically and physically. Buildings and infrastructure are damaged, as are community cohesion and morale. Lives may be lost; many others are changed forever.

When extreme events disrupt communities, responses usually occur in one of two ways. We can try to repair damage and continue as before, which is known as resilience. Or we try to repair and fortify against future damage in a process of adaptation. Climigration is an extreme form of climate change adaptation,

This article draws on our recently published research, which investigated how land-use and strategic planning frameworks can prepare for climigration.

Climigration is no longer a concern for the future; it is a challenge today. The notion of strategically relocating entire communities has quickly moved from imagination to reality.

For instance, in 2016 the US Department of Housing and Urban Development provided US$1 billion to help communities adapt to climate change in 13 states. The grants included the first direct allocation of federal funding to move an entire community.

Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana is the first US community to undergo federally sanctioned climigration. The move has been forced by the loss of coastal land to rising seas and storm surges. Last December, the state bought land at residents’ preferred site to develop their new community.



Climigration options were previously considered in Alaska. Climate-induced coastal erosion has threatened the viability of the village of Newtok for many years. Its residents voted in 2003 to relocate to higher ground but the relocation looks unlikely to be completed before 2023.

In Australia, more than 100 households in Grantham, Queensland, were relocated to higher ground with government assistance after devastating floods caused by an exceptionally strong La Niña in 2011.

Critical factors in climigration

Climigration is, of course, not a phenomenon restricted to the US and Australia. It is a growing concern for many countries.

Our research sought to establish a framework for effective climigration planning. We systematically reviewed international case studies of community relocations undertaken because of environmental hazards. As part of this we developed a hierarchy of influencing factors in planning for climigration.

We found that the degree to which a community agrees on the need to relocate is a crucial influence. Consensus generates social capital, which supports action and improves the prospects of successful outcomes.

Perception of the timing and severity of risks is another critical factor. Immediate, obvious risks are more likely to motivate action. Motivation can be low if risks are seen as a problem for the distant future, even if impacts may eventually be devastating.

Political, economic and logistical support from government moderately influences the success of community relocation. Relocation may still occur without government support, but this is not preferable and the chances of success are lower.

Strong local leadership can improve the capacity of communities to face the reality of relocation and then to resettle. Strategic leadership from outside agencies is a complement to local leadership, not a substitute.

Strategic and land-use planning systems will be central public agencies in many climigration cases.

Planners already have relevant skills and training. These include community consultation, mediation and stakeholder engagement. Planners can coordinate land acquisition and development applications. They can provide temporary housing, infrastructure and transportation.

Planning for climigration also requires other professional input, including disaster management, social psychology and engineering.

Strategic planning for climigration should begin as early as possible. Vulnerable communities can be identified using risk mapping.

Alternative sites can then be shortlisted and potential logistical demands identified.

Securing land for relocation may place planners in the middle of competing forces. They need to be careful and deliberative to balance the expectations of residents, government, and the market.

Consultation is vital to secure community consensus in the event of climigration. It is a key tool for planners to explain risks and engage residents in crucial decisions.

Specific policy frameworks for climigration are preferable but not essential. When used, they can improve coordination and reduce the risk of negative outcomes.

A confronting concept

While climigration is not yet a common planning issue, it is likely to become an increasingly urgent agenda. Climigration events like those in Louisiana, Alaska and Queensland are just the first wave.

There are limits to the feasibility of climigration. It might only be viable for small towns and villages. Undoubtedly there will be cases where climigration is rejected as too much of challenge.

Triage-based planning could be helpful in deciding which communities to relocate.

Accepting the notion of climigration may be the biggest challenge for planners. The idea that the only viable future for a community is to be relocated elsewhere is unusual and confronting. Managing climigration through planning practice may prove more straightforward than adjusting to the idea in the first place.

Links

• (AU) Governments should relocate those in flood-prone areas, study finds
• (AU) Moving Grantham? Relocating flood-prone towns is nothing new
• (AU) Why move back? Floods and the difficulty of relocation
• (AU) Our deadly bushfire gamble: risk your life or bet your house
• (AU) We can’t save everything from climate change – here’s how to make choices
• What is Climate Resilience?
• What is adaptation to climate change?
• Isle De Jean Charles Resettlement
• Without Trump, Morrison and his climate denial will be left out in the cold
• Climate change and the great death we’re living through
• This law student is suing the government over climate change
• Let’s not politicise climate change, it distracts us from the truth
• Climate change is washing away our beaches, Labor is doing something about it
• I’m not having children due to climate change, stop telling me that I’m stupid

Dubbed 'China's Greta Thunberg', Howey Ou Is Fighting For Climate Action In A Country Where Few Others Will

SBS - Rashida Yosufzai

For Howey Ou, described by some as the “Chinese Greta Thunberg”, raising awareness about climate change is a lonely challenge. But, as the 17-year-old tells SBS News, she's not ready to stop fighting.

Source: Instagram

 A teenager is interrogated for hours by police in China. Her metadata is searched. Later, she’s kicked out of school. Her parents are worried for her safety, so she leaves home.

But Howey Ou isn’t a spy or a criminal. She’s a climate change activist - and despite these challenges, she isn’t afraid to keep on protesting and raising awareness about a problem she feels most of her compatriots are apathetic about.

Howey, now 17, says attitudes in her country on climate change are “not up to date”, and there’s seldom any discussion on the news or at an official level.

“The country isn’t really treating this as a crisis,” she told SBS News.

When she was arrested in May 2019, Howey was on day seven of a protest outside a government building in her native Guilin, trying to warn people about climate change.

Police took her to a station before moving her to a different location. When she got here, she saw her parents were already being questioned.

Howey Ou outside the Guilin People’s Government building in May 2019. Twitter

Police interrogated Howey for three hours and searched her metadata. They asked her who she met, who she talked to during the protest, and whether she’d spoken to any foreigners.

She said the police later had dinner with her parents to “try and have good relations” with them.

In the fallout following her arrest, Howey’s parents confiscated her electronic devices and grounded her out of concern for her safety.

“I left home after that,” she said.

Greta’s influence

Howey is from the southern Chinese city of Guilin, which is known for its lush green hills, blue lakes and boasts some of world's most beautiful karst landscapes.

That may have influenced why she's always had a love for the environment and nature.

But it wasn’t until two years ago when she saw the climate change documentary An Inconvenient Truth that the threat of climate change became front and centre in her mind.

She was also inspired by a young Swedish girl who, at the time, was taking on the world with her message to reduce global emissions.

If Greta Thunberg could do it, so can I, Howey thought.

So, she went to see if there was a Chinese chapter of School Strike For Climate, the youth activist movement inspired by Ms Thunberg.

Howey Ou was rejected from her school for her activism. Twitter

To her shock, there wasn’t. So, like Ms Thunberg did during her first climate strikes, Howey decided to go it alone.

That's how she finds herself standing on busy streets every Friday holding up signs warning passers-by about the urgency of climate change action.

Usually she'll stand there for about three hours but some days it's six.

And while sometimes she'll have a friend with her, she's often alone.

Only a handful of people ever stop to ask her what she's doing, even though, she said, hundreds or even thousands of people will walk by ignoring her.

"Some glare and stop to see what happens, sometimes [they'll] ask [what I'm doing], but mostly I explain to them this is for social goods and environment (sic), so they understand," she said.

On rare occasions people ask for photos or encourage her from afar. Then there are those who think she's being unpatriotic.

"Some will think this is against [the] country, with some inconvenience and hate," she added.

Howey and Ms Thunberg haven't met in person, but the Swede has described her Chinese counterpart as a “true hero”.

Howey Ou is a true hero. We are all behind you.

Guilin, China. #FridaysForFuture https://t.co/oB34G7jdDd

— Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) May 26, 2019

'China needs more climate activists'

In May this year, Howey applied for school but was rejected.

“The principal … told me that if I continue (climate activism) then they will not accept me,” she said.

I was banned from school in China for my climate activism.

China must take its responsibility to act on cc and ensure children have the right to live without fear.#LetChinaStrikeForClimate #FaceTheClimateEmergency #FridaysForFutureChina #HoweyOu @aiww https://t.co/LEYRLAE3K9 pic.twitter.com/1mtjdhbVFo

— Howey Ou (@howey_ou) July 20, 2020

She is still hoping to go to university and take online courses. But her parents worry.

“They still think I should go back to school and study and to do this (activism) when I’m older,” Howey said.

“But I don’t agree with that."

View this post on Instagram

第65天#为未来的星期五 ！ 反抗灭绝 #气候危机 #ClimateStrike #停止生态屠杀#PloggingChina #YouGoGreta #GretaPlogging #ploggingchina #yangshuo #guilin #plogger #MakeEcocideLaw 欢迎转发微博，Facebook ：） Twitter/Instagram@howey_ou Facebook @OuHowey Weibo 微博@欧泓奕HoweyOu #ClimateStrike #LetChinaStrikeForClimate #LetRussiaStrikeForClimate #ClimateStrikeChina #ChinaFloods #气候变化 #气候危机 #气候罢课 #为未来的星期五 #FridaysforFutureChina #气候危机没有疫苗 #为未来的星期五 #气候危机 #第六次物种大灭绝 #DefendtheDefenders #howeyou #fridaysforfuture @fridaysforfuture @extinctionrebellion @thisiszerohour @fridaysforfuturechina @gretathunberg @vanessanakate1 @alexandriaV2005 @extinctionrebellion.de @thepapernews @ifengnews @peoplesdaily @jiemiannews @theguardian @time @times @Washingtonpost @Wikileaks @aiweiwei @extinctionrebellion.fr @signsforfuture @mitzijonelle @xiyebastida

A post shared by Howey Ou (@howey_ou) on Aug 28, 2020 at 10:44am PDT

“China doesn’t need one more climate scientist … it needs more and more climate activists to [stress] this issue to the government.

“The [climate] emergency is getting more and more serious.”

There have been recent warnings China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is facing an increased risk of flooding amid rising temperatures.

The most recent floods in July across central and southern China killed at least 210 people.

“By the end of the current century, China is projected to be affected the most by flooding, with 40 million people affected and 110 billion Euros of damage per year,” a research paper by the Lancet revealed.

For now, Howey wants to raise awareness through non-violent, civil disobedience – in a country where such actions could get her into trouble with authorities.

“It is the only way to work in this kind of situation,” she said.

“Throughout history we know that this is [an] efficient way to make social change. We are aware of the possible risk and we will take the risk tenuously.

“If we don’t do this, we will face social collapse and mass starvation.”

'The system is still running as usual'

Howey has more than ten thousand followers on social media, but has struggled to find wider support within China.

Grassroots social movements can be heavily suppressed by the government, and the climate change movement there is lacking in participants.

Last year, Howey travelled solo around the country on a shoestring budget, meeting with environmental organisations and activists. But she said many had little understanding of the climate crisis.

And last October, she faced criticism from millions online when a German media interview with her went viral on Chinese social media.

Many accused her of attention-seeking and "armchair activism", while others made unflattering comparisons to Ms Thunberg, who is herself a frequent object of ridicule on the Chinese internet.

When she’s asked if she’s worried for her safety, Howey replies: “I’m afraid that the world is in a very dangerous situation. The change is still nowhere in sight and all the people and the system is still running as usual. There is nothing happening in the world. And I’m worried about that.

“We need to use the science to let people know what is going on… inspire them and to protect them by our own sacrificing (sic).

“When they see protesters don’t fear anything, to like, sacrifice themselves for a better world, or a livable world, they will feel really important [and] respect the protesters”.

Additional reporting by AFP.

Links

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