Extreme weather events will be a major source of future losses.
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| Construction worker Dineose Vargas wipes his face at a construction site on the Duncan Canal in Kenner, La., on Aug. 13. (Gerald Herbert/AP) |
At a time when there’s concern about a global economic downturn, the new study, published as a working paper in the National Bureau of Economic Research, warns of a far bigger cut to economic growth if global warming goes unchecked.
The
study is unique in that it finds higher potential costs from climate
change, particularly in the industrial world, compared with past
research. For example, the study found that continued temperature
increases of about 0.072 degrees per year (0.04 Celsius) under a roughly
“business as usual," or high-emissions, scenario would yield a 7.2
percent cut to GDP per capita worldwide by 2100. (This is relative to a
world in which countries see temperature increases equal to their 1960
to 2014 rate of change.)
In
contrast, if countries were to cut greenhouse gas emissions in line
with the Paris climate agreement, then such effects could be limited to
closer to a 1.1 percent loss in GDP per capita.
“What
our study suggests is that climate change is costly for all countries
under the business as usual scenario (no matter whether they are hot or
cold, rich or poor), and the United States will be one of the countries
that will suffer the most (reflecting sharp increases in U.S. average
temperatures by 2100),” study co-author Kamiar Mohaddes, an economist at
the University of Cambridge, said via email.
For
the United States, the study finds that if emissions of greenhouse
gases are not significantly cut in keeping with the goals of the Paris
accord, the country could see a 10.5 percent cut in real income by 2100.
The hardest hit countries will be poorer, tropical nations, but in
contrast to previous studies, the new paper finds that no country will
be spared and none will see a net benefit economically from global
warming.
The
team of researchers from the University of Cambridge, the International
Monetary Fund, the University of Southern California and the National
Tsing Hua University in Taiwan examined economic data from 174 countries
during the period from 1964 to 2014, and concluded that per capita
economic output growth is adversely affected by prolonged changes in
temperature, both above or below its historical norms. Extreme
temperature and precipitation events can reverberate throughout state,
national and international economies, the study found.
“It
is not only the level of temperature that affects economic activity,
but also its persistent above-norm changes. For example, while the level
of temperature in Canada is low, the country is warming up twice as
fast as rest of the world and therefore is affected by climate change
(including from damage to its physical infrastructure, coastal and
northern communities, human health and wellness, ecosystems and
fisheries),” Mohaddes said.
Other
countries will experience major losses, too, if emissions of
planet-warming greenhouse gases are not reduced soon. Canada, for
example, could lose more than 13 percent of its GDP by 2100, while
Japan, India and New Zealand could be subjected to a 10 percent hit as
well.
Mohaddes said the study takes into
account the changes in average temperatures and precipitation, and in
the variability of weather patterns as the climate warms.
For the United States, the new study comes up with a similar damage figure as a paper cited in the National Climate Assessment,
which the Trump administration released late last year. That report
contained a statistic that received widespread media attention, finding
that climate change could cost the country 10 percent of its GDP.
However, the previous figure was based on a 2017 paper
in the journal Science, and used an extreme, although possible, climate
change scenario, with about 14.4 degrees (8 Celsius) of warming by 2100
compared to preindustrial levels, which is not considered the most
likely outcome.
The
study released Monday comes to nearly the same figure using a more
realistic global warming scenario, one that’s closer to 7.2 degrees (4
Celsius) of warming by 2100 compared to preindustrial levels.
Mohaddes
says that economic losses from climate change depend in part on extreme
events, which can cause temperatures to temporarily greatly exceed or
fall below their historical baseline.
“The UK
recently had its hottest day on record. Train tracks buckled, roads
melted, and thousands were stranded because it was out of the norm. Such
events take an economic toll, and will only become more frequent and
severe without policies to address the threats of climate change,”
Mohaddes said in a statement.
The study, like
other projections on how climate change may influence economic growth,
makes assumptions about emissions trends, how society may try to adapt
to the effects of global warming and other factors. However, although
the specific figures may contain uncertainties, the overarching finding
that all countries will experience economic damage from climate change,
rather than just poor, tropical nations, is more robust.Links
- Increasing humidity, driven in part by climate change, is making even modest heat waves unbearable
- Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis
- Where the alarming economic damage stat in the new climate report came from
- Fighting climate change will help economic growth, study finds
- Climate change to shrink economies of rich, poor, hot and cold countries alike unless Paris Agreement holds
- Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States
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