Is This the Year Global Warming Stopped?

Need to Know by Stephen Leahy

ADAM ZYGLIS / BUFFALO NEWS BUFFALONEWS.COM

 
Be ready for this: Claims that global warming has stopped because 2025 wasn’t as hot as 2024 or 2023. So stop worrying, climate change is over.

Wrong.
It is likely that 2025 will not be as hot as recent years.  recent years. The current cool phase (La Nina) of the ENSO cycle will mean the overall global temperature will be somewhat cooler on average: As in one or two-tenths of a degree cooler than in recent years. So 1.4C or 1.35C. 

A slightly cooler year in 2025 will still bring all kinds of extreme weather. (See America's Whipsaw Weather Future. How extreme weather is becoming extremely extreme.)

One important Need-to-Know is that the amount of heat trapped by our ever-accumulating carbon pollution will reach record highs. Over 90% of that heat will go into heating up the oceans, which are heating up 4 times faster than in the late 1980s.

Need-to-Know: A gobsmacking level of heat is building up in our oceans

The enormous amount of heat from the 41.6 billion metric tons of carbon pollution we added in 2024 will still be present in 2025. So will the heat from the trillion-odd tons of carbon that has been emitted over the past 150 years.

And we’ll add another 40 or 42 billion tons of heat-trapping carbon pollution in 2025.

All that heat is mostly hiding in the oceans, but it won’t stay there.

One zetajoule is equivalent to 10 times the world's electricity generation in 2020.

So, while 2025 should be a bit cooler overall, in two or three years, or, if we’re lucky, 5 years from today, global temperatures will soar again. We’ll likely push close to 2C, bringing destructive levels of extreme weather no human has ever witnessed.

That said, if 2025 turns out to be hotter than 2024, it means some unknown climate element has kicked in. That could push us to 2C and higher far sooner than expected.

Need-to-Know: The physics of global warming is relentless

Global warming doesn’t care if we ignore it or pretend that it’s not happening. Or that we’re too busy with some important crisis or conflict to do anything about it.

Global warming doesn’t bargain or forgive.

Global warming is relentless.

We need to remember this.

Links

• ‘Unexpected’: January Breaks Temperature Record Globally, Startling Scientists
• 20 climate strategies insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals 
• Record-breaking heat likely to continue in 2025, accelerating climate change
• Global temperature is likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial level temporarily in next 5 years
• 1.5°C: what it means and why it matters
• Global Warming of 1.5 ºC
• Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?
• January 2025 sets surprise record as hottest ever start to a year
• Ocean temperature rise accelerating as greenhouse gas levels keep rising

Australia 2024: Climate Change Impact - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Editor BDA - Lethal Heating

Climate change is a fundamental threat to life on Earth.

Here is its environmental, social, and economic impact on Australia:

• Rising temperatures: Australia's average temperature has increased by 1.51 ± 0.23 °C since 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950. The year 2019 was the warmest on record, with temperatures 1.52°C above average.

Number of days each year where the Australian area-averaged daily mean temperature for each month is extreme. Extreme days are defined as those where daily mean temperatures are the warmest 1% of days for each month, calculated for the period 1910–2023. ©  Bureau of Meteorology

• Extreme heat events: There has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves since 1970.
  In 2019, there were 40 days with extremely high nationally-averaged mean temperatures, about 3 times more than any year prior to 2000. 
• Changing rainfall patterns: Southern Australia is experiencing decreasing rainfall during cooler months, while northern Australia has seen increased rainfall since the 1970s.
  The intensity of heavy rainfall events has increased by 10% or more since 1979.



April to October rainfall deciles for the 30 years from 1994 to 2023. A decile map shows where rainfall is above average, average, or below average for this period compared to all years from 1900 (when reliable national rainfall records began) to 1993. Areas across northern and central Australia that receive less than 40% of their annual rainfall from April to October are faded. ©  Bureau of Meteorology

• Longer fire seasons: The number and length of periods of dangerous fire weather have increased since the 1950s, especially in southern Australia.
  The 2024 State of the Climate Report indicates a continued increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days and a longer fire season for southern and eastern Australia.

There has been an increase in the number of days with dangerous weather conditions for bushfires. The map shows the change in the number of days per year (July to June) that the FFDI exceeds its 90th percentile of conditions observed from 1950–2024, between 2 periods: July 1950 to June 1987 and July 1987 to June 2024. The FFDI is an indicator of dangerous fire weather conditions for a given location. ©  Bureau of Meteorology

• Rising sea levels and marine impacts: Sea levels around Australia continue to rise, increasing the risk of inundation and threatening coastal communities and infrastructure.
  This trend is projected to continue, with more frequent coastal floods expected. Oceans around Australia have warmed by around 1°C since 1910.
  The 2024 report warns of increased and longer-lasting marine heatwaves, affecting marine environments such as kelp forests and increasing the likelihood of more frequent and severe bleaching events in coral reefs, including the Great Barrier Reef.
  

The rate of offshore sea level rise (in cm per decade) around Australia measured using satellite altimetry from 1993 to 2023, and onshore sea level rise (coastal points) from the multi-decadal tide gauge dataset from the Australian Baseline Sea Level Monitoring Project. The colour scale applies to both the altimetry and tide gauge observations. ©  Bureau of Meteorology and NOAA

• Economic impacts: Climate change is already affecting Australia's economy, with severe droughts reducing the country's gross domestic product by about 1%. By 2061, climate change impacts on agricultural conditions could lead to annual average production losses between $750 million and $1.5 billion.
• Biodiversity threats: One in six species is at risk of extinction due to climate change, with Australia currently holding the title for the highest rate of mammal extinction in the world.
• Coral Bleaching: Rising ocean temperatures and acidity are causing more frequent and severe coral bleaching events, with the Great Barrier Reef experiencing five mass bleaching events in just eight years.
• Health Concerns: Heatwaves, which are becoming more frequent and intense, pose a significant health risk, particularly to vulnerable populations such as the elderly and infants. 
  Bushfires are also impacting air quality, while floods can contaminate drinking water supplies.

Six in 10 young Australians worry about climate change,with many experiencing extreme weather events first hand, according to a Mission Australia Youth Survey.

• Displacement and Property Damage: Rising sea levels and more frequent extreme weather events are causing coastal erosion and flooding, potentially displacing communities and damaging homes. 
  By 2050, up to 2.6 million homes in Australia could be at moderate or high risk from climate change-related extreme weather.
• Disproportionate Effects on Low-Income Households: Low-income earners are more likely to live in areas vulnerable to climate change impacts and have less capacity to adapt or relocate. 
  They also spend a higher proportion of their income on energy and water, making them more susceptible to price increases in these essential services.
• Labor Productivity Decline: Increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves are projected to result in significant work losses. By 2061, between 700,000 and 2.7 million more days of work could be lost annually due to heat-related issues
• Infrastructure Costs: More severe weather events and rising sea levels will increase the risk of natural disasters, leading to higher costs for infrastructure damage and repair.
• Property and Insurance Impacts: Climate change-related events are affecting property values and increasing insurance premiums, particularly in high-risk areas.

To address these challenges, Australia needs to implement comprehensive strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, ensuring that vulnerable communities are protected and the transition to a low-carbon economy is equitable and just.

Links

• Australia’s climate change strategies
• Australia's changing climate
• Climate change in Australia
• Aussies suffer through second hottest year on record
• Anthony Albanese flags natural disasters becoming more frequent and intense
• Australia must brace for longer fire seasons and marine heatwaves ahead, report says
• New sustainability regulations up the ante for Australian directors