Cutting The Cable: Kangaroo Island Eyes Switch To 100% Renewable Energy

The Guardian - Giles Parkinson

Australia's third-biggest island could combine wind, solar, PV and battery storage to fuel own electricity needs – and set a blueprint for the rest of the country 

Admiral Arch on Kangaroo Island in Flinders Chase national park. Photograph: Alamy

Kangaroo Island is one of the great icons of Australian tourism. As Andrew Boardman, the chief executive of the Kangaroo Island council, says: "You can't buy a name like that."
But now the third-biggest island in Australia, which lies just 120kms from Adelaide, wants to make its mark in a different way: by supplying 100% of its electricity needs and much of its transport fuels through locally sourced renewable energy.
The island is calling for proposals that could use a mixture of its local resources – solar power, wind energy, biomass and even ocean energy – and combine those with battery storage, smart software and the existing diesel back-up. Even more dramatically, it is also supporting a push to cut the island from the mainland grid.
Indeed, the move has been prompted by a need to update and replace the ageing cable that currently supplies electricity from the mainland.
South Australian Power Networks has called for "alternative proposals". If someone can come up with a proposal that matches the $45m to $50m replacement cost of the cable, then they will consider it. They aim to make a decision by the end of the year.
Boardman says: "100% renewable is a very real, very clear target ... Technology is not the issue. We have got solar, wind, wave, tidal, biomass. There is nothing we can't really do."
If the idea works, Boardman says, it could make the island – with a population of 4,600 and 200,000 visitors each year – the first in Australia to be entirely reliant on its own renewable resources for electricity and transport. It could provide a blueprint for others to follow.
Other islands, such as King Island and Lord Howe Island, have or are about to install significant renewable and battery storage arrays but still rely on fossil fuels for 20% to 30% of their electricity needs.
"We could create a centre of excellence," Boardman says. "If we can make it work on Kangaroo Island, it is transferable for other areas."
Boardman says the island has received a "phenomenal response" to the call-out for alternatives and the council has teamed up with the Institute of Sustainable Futures in Sydney to help find the best alternative.
ISF director Chris Dunstan says the institute got involved because he saw the Kangaroo Island tender as an opportunity too important to miss.
"It's not just about deferring spending on networks for a year or two, it's about a whole new energy paradigm," Dunstan says.
He and Boardman are hoping that South Australian Power Networks allows more time for alternative proposals to be put together, which is why the ISF has stepped in to push the idea that there are good alternatives to simply laying a new cable.
Earlier this year, ISF put together a tentative plan that proposes 8MW of wind turbines, 4MW of centralised solar photovoltaics (PV) and 4MW of rooftop PV, with about 3MW battery storage, most of it co-located with solar PV.
This would be combined with energy efficiency measures and continuing the small diesel plant, which would account for just 3% of the load. Dunstan estimates the set-up could cut bills on the island by 30% but his team is also looking at other ideas.
Boardman wants to go one step further and use 18,000 hectares of blue gum plantations – the legacy of investment by the since-failed plantation company Great Southern Plantations – as feedstock for a renewable biofuel.
That could be used to replace the six million litres of diesel it imports at high cost from the mainland each year, as well as providing electricity and waste heat, and the power needed to desalinate water.
There is little else to do with the plantations, he says, as there is no port to export the wood back to the mainland.
And he is keen to play on the island's reputation as an eco-tourism destination. The council already has three Nissan Leaf electric vehicles for hire and six re-charging stations through the island.
The island is encouraging more electric vehicles and Boardman talks of creating the world's first renewable energy-powered "electric vehicle tourism highway", linking the island with Adelaide via the Fleurieu Peninsula. The island already has 50kW of rooftop solar installed on its airport and another 14kW on the council chambers.
Boardman says there is no doubt that the technology is there but he has concerns about other issues such as who runs an island-only grid and who do they answer to? And, in 25 to 30 years' time, when some of the technology needs replacing, who will pay for that? Another potential factor may be the pairing of fibre optic cable with a new electricity cable. Digital isolation is also a major consideration.
Whether the cable is cut or not, Boardman says that the island will need to upgrade its local network anyway. It features a series of "thin wires" or single-wire earth return lines built in the 1960s that no longer have the capacity to meet future demand. He envisages a series of linked micro-grids that can exploit local resources and increase reliability.
And, if the cable is not cut, Boardman sees opportunities for using that cable to export power from the island back to the mainland, taking advantage of its local energy resources, including the eucalypt plantation.
"If we can show that renewable energy is technically and economically viable for Kangaroo Island, it would be a powerful precedent for communities around Australia who are seeking to develop their own renewable energy."

Links

• Climate change: how Victoria trumped New South Wales in the great renewable energy race
• Four visionary renewable energy projects that could pay off for Australia
• Stop spreading misinformation on coal demand
• Climate change: communities and councils fill void on zero emissions targets
• Garbage in, energy out: creating biofuel from plastic waste

This ‘Other’ Form Of Solar Energy Can Run At Night, And It Just Got A Big Backer

Climate Progress - Joe Romm

Nevada's Crescent Dunes concentrating solar thermal plant went online last September. It is 110 Megawatt with 10 hours of built in storage. CREDIT: PHOTO BY AMBLE VIA WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

Converting sunlight directly into electricity, the photovoltaic (PV) solar panel industry has dominated the solar generation market recently because of its astounding price drops. Prices have fallen 99 percent in the past quarter century and over 80 percent since 2008 alone. This has also helped to slow the growth of the “other” form of solar, concentrating solar thermal power (CSP), which uses sunlight to heat water and uses the steam to drive a turbine and generator.
Fortunately, one country appears to be making a major bet on CSP — China. SolarReserve, the company that built the Crescent Dunes plant (pictured above) recently announced a deal with the Shenhua Group, the world’s largest coal provider, to build 1,000 megawatts of CSP with storage in China. And the country as a whole has plans to build some 10,000 megawatts of CSP in the next five years.
I say “fortunately” because CSP has one huge potential advantage compared to PV. The heat it generates can be stored over 20 times more cheaply than electricity — and with far greater efficiency. So CSP’s “killer app” is that it can provide power long after the sun has set — and it doesn’t disrupt the grid when a cloud passes overhead.

CSP has several possible designs, including a power tower such as the Crescent Dunes plant (top picture), which uses movable mirrors to focus sunlight on a central tower that holds the engine, and the parabolic trough, which uses mirrors to focus sunlight on a long tube filled with a heat-storing fluid (right).
Because of its built-in cheap, efficient storage, CSP — aka Solar Thermal Electric (STE) — has the ability to directly address the “variability” or “intermittency” problem that PV has when the sun isn’t shining. As a result, the 2014 STE Technology Roadmap from the International Energy Agency (IEA) concludes that while PV could generate 16 percent of the world’s electricity by 2050, as much as 11 percent could be generated by STE at the same time.
In this scenario: “Combined, these solar technologies could prevent the emission of more than 6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year by 2050 — that is more than all current energy-related CO2 emissions from the United States or almost all of the direct emissions from the transport sector worldwide today.”

But this isn’t a forecast or projection by the IEA, it is a roadmap or scenario of what could happen with the right policies and continued technology improvement. In the past decade, though, solar PV has leap-frogged the competition because of aggressive pro-PV policies by governments around the world, most especially in Germany and China.
Both of those countries embraced massive deployment programs that turned PV from an expensive renewable source with limited deployment into one of the cheapest and most rapidly expanding sources of new power in the world:

Solar’s exponentially declining costs and exponentially rising installations (the y-axis is a logarithmic scale).

One technology’s miracle is, however, another technology’s competitive nightmare. And so the question has been, will any country try to do for CSP which Germany and China (and others) did for PV — make major investments to bring CSP down the learning curve?
Both the IEA and the U.S. National Renewable Energy Lab have said that after solar PV makes a deep penetration into the electricity market, CSP will likely become more valuable. A 2014 NREL study found a CSP project with thermal storage “would add additional value of 5 or 6 cents per kilowatt hour to utility-scale solar energy in California where 33 percent renewables will be mandated in six years.”
Right now, solar PV produces power at the most valuable time — the daytime peak in electricity consumption, especially during the summer, when air conditioning use creates a huge power draw. But once solar PV hits 10 percent to 15 percent of annual electric generation in a region, it can become less valuable. The IEA projects that when that occurs, perhaps around 2030, “Massive-scale STE deployment takes off at this stage thanks to CSP plants’ built-in thermal storage, which allows for generation of electricity when demand peaks in late afternoon and in the evening, thus complementing PV generation.”
But, again, that assumes the world sees continued investments in CSP so that its price and performance steadily improve, and it can scale up quickly to become a large-scale contributor to a zero-carbon power grid.
For a while it seemed as if the United States would be that big driver, but CSP was stalled by the collapsing price of PV. Also, the reputation of CSP as “green” was harmed in this country by a shocking estimate of 28,000 birds burned a year by one CSP facility — an estimate that turned out to be no more than pure speculation. The actual number of birds burned in one year appears to be 700 — and that was before any abatement actions were taken. It turns out that just using standard strategies to ward off birds can cut that number by two thirds. And the Crescent Dunes facility built by SolarReserve (see top picture) was able to virtually eliminate bird burning entirely by changing how the mirrors were operated when in standby mode.
But the public relations damage had already been done to U.S. CSP plants. And so this May, SolarReserve announced a partnership with China’s Shenhua Group, the world’s largest coal provider, to build 1,000 megawatts of CSP with storage. The two companies explain:

The unique power dispatch capabilities of these utility scale projects will facilitate the deployment of additional wind and PV generation, while ensuring the reliability and security of the new ultra-high voltage transmission lines being constructed to bring clean, renewable power from the north and west regions of China to load centers in the east.

This is important because China had been forcing wind plants “to shut down at times to let coal power plants meet their generation quotas,” as the American Wind Energy Association explained last year. As a result, some 17 percent of potential wind generation was lost due to curtailment in 2012. The figure may be even higher today.
China has committed to prioritize the dispatch of renewable power first as part of its overall “war on coal,” as we have reported. A big increase in CSP — together with a big planned increase in pumped storage at hydropower plants — could go a very long way to enabling further reductions in coal use in China.
And, indeed, China aims to build 10,000 megawatts of CSP over the next five years (and they have over a dozen plants planned or under construction right now). If China is able to achieve even half that target, they would likely become the world’s largest deployer of CSP. Here’s a chart of current CSP from the recent “Renewables 2016 Global Status Report” by REN21, the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century:

CREDIT: REN21

The continued expansion of CSP worldwide is crucial to reducing its costs, just as it was for wind and solar PV. Obviously, CSP has a very long way to go to catch up to PV, which hit 227 gigawatts of capacity in 2015 and continues to rise rapidly.
That said, SolarReserve CEO Kevin Smith believes that by around 2020, with the help of its Shenua deal, it can reduced the cost of the electricity it provides up to 40 percent, “well into the single digits per kilowatt-hour.” And that’s pretty good for a carbon-free source of dispatchable power — cheaper than new nuclear.
Lastly, the biggest threat to CSP in a carbon-constrained world probably may turn out to be battery technology. If batteries continue their miraculous price drops, then the need for the kind of low-cost, built in storage that CSP delivers may be reduced, especially if electric vehicles also continue their recent exponential growth leading to widespread vehicle-to-grid systems.
May the best technology win!

Links

• Exxon Is Still Helping Fund The Spread Of Climate Denial
• The Republican Party’s Platform Says Coal Is ‘Clean’ Energy
• This Is Why You Could Lose Your Life Protecting Honduras’ Environment
• Here’s A Look At How Catholic Churches Are Taking Pope Francis’ Climate Encyclical To Heart
• Climate Change, Bats, And Zika: 2016’s Weirdest Relationship

Renewable Energy to Surpass Coal and Nuclear by 2030: 7 Key Takeaways from EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2016

Union of Concerned Scientists - Steve Clemmer


As a certified energy geek, I always look forward to this time of year. On July 11 and 12, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is holding their annual conference to discuss current energy technology, market, and policy issues, and will present results from their new Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2016 report.
One of the headlines this year is EIA's new projections for renewable energy, which under their reference case is expected to surpass nuclear power by 2020 and coal by 2028 to become the second largest source of U.S. electricity generation after natural gas (see Figure 1 below).
Here are seven key takeaways from AEO 2016 that explain why EIA is projecting such a large increase in renewable energy this year:

1. Federal tax credits and Clean Power Plan drive growth in renewables
EIA's reference case includes the recent five-year extension of the federal production and investment tax credits for wind and solar passed by Congress in December 2015, and implementation of EPA's Clean Power Plan (CPP). While the U.S. Supreme Court put a temporary hold on the rule in February 2016 until the merits of the case are decided, EIA decided to include the CPP in the reference case because the rule has not been overturned.

Figure 1. Renewables surpass nuclear power by 2020 and coal by 2028. Renewables include wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and hydropower. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016.

The federal tax credits, state renewable electricity standards (RESs), and continued cost reductions for wind and solar will drive significant growth in renewables though 2021 (Figure 1). During this time, EIA actually projects natural gas generation to decline slightly as wind and solar are more cost-effective with the tax credits.
After the CPP targets kick in 2022, EIA projects both renewables and natural gas to grow as the two most cost-effective ways (along with a modest increase in energy efficiency) for states to replace coal and comply with the CPP. These results are consistent with recent analyses by UCS, NREL and the Rhodium Group.

2. Wind and solar lead growth in renewables
The renewable energy (including wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and hydropower) share of U.S. electricity generation grows from 13 percent in 2015 to 24 percent in 2030, and 27 percent in 2040, with almost all of the growth from wind and solar PV (Figure 2).
This is because continued cost reductions are projected for these technologies beyond the 60-70 percent cost reductions already achieved since 2009. Under EIA's reference case with the federal tax credits and CPP, U.S. wind capacity nearly doubles by 2022, reaching 144 GW, while US solar capacity grows five-fold by 2030, reaching 125 GW. Geothermal increases a significant amount in California and the Southwest, but provides a relatively small share of US electricity generation.
EIA also projects virtually no growth in hydro or biopower. Despite EIA's inaccurate assumption that all biomass feedstocks are carbon neutral, biopower is still not economically competitive with wind, solar, and natural gas.  The lack of growth in hydro and biomass is consistent with recent analyses by UCS, NREL, and Rhodium Group that include the federal tax credit extension and CPP.

Figure 2. Renewable electricity generation by fuel. Geothermal = red, biomass = gray. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016.

3. Renewable generation increases in all regions of the country by 2030
The biggest increases occur in the West and Plains, which have abundant, low cost wind, solar, and geothermal (Figure 3).  The Southeast also sees a big increase in solar as costs continue to fall.  The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic see a smaller increase in renewables and a bigger increase in natural gas.
The Southeast also sees a modest increase in nuclear generation due to five new reactors currently under construction or operating in Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee. This growth offsets a modest reduction in nuclear generation in Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states where EIA assumes a small number of existing plants will retire before their current operating licenses expire. (Note that the retirement of Diablo Canyon in California is not included as the announcement was made after EIA completed its modeling). The Midwest/Mid-Atlantic states also see the greatest reduction in coal generation and the largest increase in natural gas.

Figure 3. Renewables increase in all regions under the Clean Power Plan. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016.

4. Renewables generation varies under different Clean Power Plan implementation scenarios

Figure 4. Cumulative difference in generation in the CPP vs. the no CPP case. Renewables = green, natural gas =blue, and coal = black. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2016. 

EIA projects renewable generation to increase the most if states chose rate-based rather than mass-based targets as part of their CPP compliance strategies. Broader regional trading with mass-based targets also results in more renewables, less natural gas, and less reduction in coal than the more limited trading assumed in the reference case.
Not surprisingly, in their "extended case" EIA found that continuing to increase the CPP emission reduction targets through 2040 (the current program only goes through 2030) would result in more renewables and natural gas, and less coal than the reference case.

5. Increasing renewable energy is affordable
EIA projects that average retail electricity rates would be 3 percent higher between 2025-2030 in the reference case (with the CPP) than in the no CPP case.  However, total U.S. electricity expenditures would only be 1.3 percent higher in the CPP case over the same period because EIA assumes a modest increase in energy efficiency investments to comply the CPP.
A recent analysis by UCS found that energy efficiency could make a much larger contribution to state compliance with the CPP that would result in cumulative net savings to consumers of $30.5 billion between 2016 and 2030.

6. Renewables are competitive despite lower natural gas prices
While EIA's natural gas price projection is lower in AEO 2016 than it was in AEO 2015 (Figure 5), large amounts of wind and solar are still competitive due to continued cost reductions and the federal tax credit extension.
EIA projects natural gas prices to double by 2025, due primarily to an increase in LNG exports, and greater natural gas use in the electricity and industrial sectors. The competition from renewables helps avoid greater reliance on natural gas that could increase natural gas prices even further.

Figure 5. Average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas (2015 dollars per million Btu).

7. EIA is finally using more realistic cost assumptions for renewable energy
UCS has been an outspoken critic of EIA's pessimistic renewable energy projections and assumptions for many years. We have written several blog posts on the topic and provided input directly to EIA on a few of their analyses and as a participant on several EIA modeling working groups. We also use a modified version of EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) in-house to show how renewables could make a larger contribution to the US electricity mix at a much lower cost when using more realistic assumptions.
One of the main reasons why EIA's projections have fallen short is because they have consistently overestimated the cost of renewable energy technologies like wind and solar. They often lag a few years behind what's happening on the ground. However, this year is different. For AEO 2016, EIA finally lowered their costs for wind and solar to be more in-line with cost data from a large sample of recent projects, as documented by DOE's national labs and the national wind and solar trade associations.
In EIA's defense, their reference case for each AEO only reflects state and federal energy policies that were enacted at the time they do their projections, as discussed extensively in a recent EIA report. With Congress allowing federal renewable energy tax credits to lapse several times before extending them for relatively short periods, and states adopting and increasing renewable electricity standards (RES) many times over the past two decades years, it is somewhat understandable that EIA's projections of renewable energy development have fallen short of reality.
While future EIA conferences and AEOs may highlight different topics, I'll remember 2016 as the year EIA turned the corner to show a bright future for renewables.

Links

• The Heat is on Fossil Fuel Companies for Decades of Climate Deception
• Dangerous Heat Wave to Grip the US: Top 10 Lessons to Survive Extreme Heat
• We Need to Hit Net Zero Emissions ASAP: Here Are 5 Indisputable Reasons Why
• World Heritage and Tourism in a Changing Climate (2016)

China Poised To Ban New Coal-Fired Power Stations

Fairfax - Angus Grigg

A ban on new power stations will cut exports of coal to China. Dado Galdier

China's move to ban construction of new coal-fired power stations will accelerate its move away from the once dominant energy source, which is losing out on price to wind, solar and hydro generation.
Amid weak economic growth and tepid demand for electricity, Beijing is expected to "suspend" all new thermal power plants until the start of 2018.
The ban is set to be unveiled as part of its 13th Five Year Plan for the energy sector, which is due to be made public shortly according to the state media.
"Once wind, solar and hydro [power plants] are built they will always be cheaper than coal," said Tim Buckley, a director at the Sydney-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
In each of the last five years China has installed more renewable energy capacity than any other country. This was done in the belief power demand would grow at almost the same pace as the overall economy.

Over-supply
But in the year to May power consumption grew at just 0.9 per cent, compared to GDP growth of 6.7 per cent in the first quarter.
This has left China with an over-supply of power.
"Why would China buy and burn expensive imported coal when they can generate renewable energy for nothing?" said Mr Buckley.
At present much of the country's renewable energy is being wasted, but upgrades to the grid and a central government directive to prioritise renewable energy should see it continue to take market share from coal.
Official figures show 15 per cent of wind generation was not used during 2015 and this increased to 26 per cent over the first quarter of the year.
"Australia should be prepared for further falls to China's coal imports and in the price of coal," said Lin Boqiang, an energy economist at Xiamen University.
China's coal imports fell by 30 per cent last year to 204 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2011.
The price of thermal coal, which along with coking coal is Australia's second largest export, has halved in value over the last five years to around $US50 a tonne.

Weak demand
At the same time the utilisation rate of China's coal-fired power stations was just 48 per cent in the first quarter of the year, down from above 60 per cent in 2011.
This is expected to fall further as State Grid, the government-owned distributor and retailer, prioritises renewable energy over coal-fired generation.
The suspension of new coal-fired plants will be reviewed in early 2018, but is unlikely to be lifted according Mr Lin from Xiamen University.
"The main reason for the suspension is the weak power demand," he said via phone.
He said a drop off in government infrastructure projects had led to a fall in power consumption from heavy industry.
The formal ban on new coal-fired power stations was reported by the Economic Information Daily, which sits under the official Xinhua news agency.
Coal's share of electricity generation is expected to fall below 60 per cent by 2020, after peaking at 79 per cent between 2009 and 2011.

Links

• China moves to stop rush of money into coal-fired power plants
• Sooty clouds that claimed Peabody won't blow over 
• Glencore to close Tahmoor mine in NSW due to low coal prices
• New Rio Tinto boss Jean-Sebastien Jacques says coal investment is off the agenda

Three Reasons To Be Cheerful About Limiting Global Warming To 1.5 Degrees

The Conversation - Bill Hare | Andrzej Ancygier

The rays of hope are there, if you look for them. Marcelo del Pozo/Reuters

The recent streak of record-breaking temperatures has shown that climate change is not waiting for the world to take decisive action.
But the adoption of the Paris Agreement was a clear signal that the world is ready to take climate change seriously. 175 countries signed and 15 of these ratified the climate deal during the signing ceremony.
Now there is every indication the agreement could enter into force this year. Many countries, led by the two biggest emitters, China and the United States, have signaled their intent to ratify by the end of 2016, leaving just four countries and 1.72% of global emissions needed for it to become official.
There can be no doubt that the window of opportunity to limit global warming to below 1.5℃, a key target of the 2015 Paris agreement, is closing fast. But there are encouraging signs around the world that this can still be done, even if there is still a very long way to go. Here are three of the most positive developments that will help the world reach its target.

1. Green energy is getting cheaper
The costs of climate mitigation have decreased drastically. According to NREL's Transparent Costs Database, wind energy costs in the US are now on a par with coal-fired power.
In May 2016 the price of photovoltaic (PV) energy fell to less than three US cents a kilowatt at an auction in Dubai. Even in not-so-sunny Germany, solar energy costs have been decreasing steadily: in a recent auction in December 2015, prices fell to eight euro cents per kilowatt hour.

Solar is going cheap in oil-rich Dubai. Ashraf Mohammad Mohammad Alamra/Reuters

We can expect further cost decreases in the coming years. According to a recent report, by the end of the decade, the cost of onshore wind should decrease by a quarter, off-shore wind by a third and photovoltaics by almost two-thirds. By the mid-2020s, solar PV and onshore wind should cost 5 or 6 US cents per kilowatt hour on average. This is significantly below the cost of energy from nuclear and coal.
As a result of decreasing costs and additional benefits, investment in renewables exploded in 2015 despite low oil prices. Meanwhile, renewable energy investment reached a record US$286 billion, generating 152 gigawatts of new capacity. This is more than the combined installed capacity from all sources for the whole African continent.

2. Carbon dioxide emissions have stopped rising
In 2014 and 2015, the CO₂ emissions from the energy sector stalled despite the global economy growing by 3%. According to the International Energy Agency, in 2014, emissions increased by less than 0.2% and by only 0.03% last year.
BP's estimates for both years were slightly higher, (0.5% in 2014 and 0.1% in 2015), but that was a significant change of trend compared to the average annual emission growth of around 2.6% over the past decade.
The major factor in this flattening trend was a fall in emissions of the two biggest emitters: China and the United States. In China, despite an increase in power consumption by 3%, power generation from fossil fuels decreased by 2%. This led emissions to fall by 1.5% last year. In the United States, emissions decreased by 2% despite healthy economic growth.
Meanwhile, developing countries are taking advantage of the significant fall in the costs of renewables. While India's emissions grew by over 5% last year, the second most populous country in the world has embarked on one of the fastest renewable expansion programmes anywhere on the planet.

India has embraced renewables on a massive scale. Brahma Kumaris, CC BY-NC

At the same time, India is taking steps to curb coal investments. The choice between renewables and coal in India might be the most important factor when it comes to global efforts to reduce emissions.

3. Green jobs are good for the economy
Every major transition is accompanied by fears of job losses. But the positive economic impacts of new technologies are given less attention. In 2014, more than 7.7 million people worked in the renewables sector, excluding large hydropower plants. A third of these jobs were in the photovoltaic sector, and an additional one million were employed in wind power – technologies which barely existed two decades ago.
Another report, shows that doubling the share of renewables in the energy mix by 2030 would triple the number of jobs in the sector and increase global GDP by 1.1%. That's the equivalent to US $1.3 trillion. In 2016, India plans to roll out 30 million solar irrigation pumps, which would have significant economic and sustainable development benefits for farmers, saving US$3 billion per year on subsidies.

There are more green jobs than ever. Sergio Perez/Reuters

The funds required for this transition could be partly covered by savings from removing fossil fuel subsidies. The IMF has found that elimination of post-tax subsidies in 2015 would have increased government revenues by US$2.9 trillion and significantly reduced environmental and social impacts of fossil fuels.
In May 2016, G7 leaders committed to eliminate "inefficient fossil fuel subsidies" by 2025. The G20 is also under pressure to agree on a timetable for phasing out subsidies.

Time for leadership
The ingredients for transforming energy systems and decarbonising the economy are already there. We are deploying more technologies that can peak emissions and accelerate their decrease.
To speed up this transformation, governments must adopt policies that ensure investments in renewable energy are secure and provide clear signposts for everyone participating in the process of decarbonisation.
Political leadership now is fundamental to prevent a slide-back to coal, and to stand up to vested interests, while providing finance and technology to the regions that need it most.

Links

• Explainer: how the OECD agreement deals another blow to coal worldwide
• The long-term future of Australian coal is drying up
• The world is waking up to the $5.3 trillion cost of fossil fuels
• To cut emissions faster, U.S. should ditch tax credit-based subsidies for renewable energy

Climate Change Causing Heatwave Deaths

Australian Journal of Pharmacy - Megan Haggan


Scientists in Europe have found that manmade climate change is to blame for hundreds of heatwave deaths.
The team of scientists studied Europe's deadly 2003 heatwave, using modelling to calculate that the majority of the 735 heat-related deaths recorded in central Paris were due to human-induced climate change.
The study, published in the Environmental Research Letters journal, also found manmade climate change had increased the risk of heat-related deaths by about 70% in central Paris and 20% in London.
Climate and Health Alliance president and heat and health researcher Dr Liz Hanna says it's a groundbreaking study.
"This research is highly significant, as we can now separate the numbers – those who would have died in a naturally occurring heatwave, and the numbers who died because of burning fossil fuels and other activities contributing to climate change," Dr Hanna says.
"We can now track the line of responsibility. Human-induced climate change is killing people and more must be done to avoid future deaths.
"The message is clear: those who block Australia's shift to a green economy will be responsible for future unnecessary deaths."
Dr Hanna says climate change is a significant health issue facing Australia, where heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense and more people will be exposed to temperatures in the high 40s.
"We know climate change has increased five-fold the likelihood of Australia experiencing an intensely hot summer."
   
Links

• Heat Waves Kill, Now We Know Why
• Study links heatwave deaths in London and Paris to climate change
• Global warming to blame for hundreds of heatwave deaths, scientists say
• Deaths during heatwave in two cities 'due to man-made climate change'

We Just Broke The Record For Hottest Year, Nine Straight Times

The Guardian - Dana Nuccitelli

Earth's record hottest 12 consecutive months were set in each month ending in September 2015 through May 2016

This image released by NASA's Earth Observatory Team from data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), an instrument on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, shows the land surface temperature as observed by MODIS in Asia between April 15 to April 23, 2016. Yellow shows the warmest temperatures. Photograph: AP

2014 and 2015 each set the record for hottest calendar year since we began measuring surface temperatures over 150 years ago, and 2016 is almost certain to break the record once again. It will be without precedent: the first time that we've seen three consecutive record-breaking hot years.
But it's just happenstance that the calendar year begins in January, and so it's also informative to compare all yearlong periods. In doing so, it becomes clear that we're living in astonishingly hot times.
June 2015 through May 2016 was the hottest 12-month period on record. That was also true of May 2015 through April 2016, and the 12 months ending in March 2016. In fact, it's true for every 12 months going all the way back to the period ending in September 2015, according to global surface temperature data compiled by Kevin Cowtan and Robert Way. We just set the record for hottest year in each of the past 9 months.

Running 12-month average global surface temperature using data compiled by Kevin Cowtan and Robert Way. Illustration: Dana Nuccitelli

These record temperatures have been assisted by a very strong El Niño event, which brought warm water to the ocean surface, temporarily warming global surface temperatures. But today's temperatures are only record-setting because the El Niño was superimposed on top of human-caused global warming.
For comparison, 1997–1998 saw a very similar monster El Niño event. And similarly, the 12-month hottest temperature record was set in each month from October 1997 through August 1998. That was likewise a case of El Niño and global warming teaming up to shatter previous temperature records.
The difference is that while September 1997–August 1998 was the hottest 12-month period on record at the time; it's now in 60^th place. It's been surpassed by yearlong periods in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, and 2016. Many of those years weren't even aided by El Niño events; unassisted global warming made them hotter than 1998.
Global surface temperatures are now more than 0.3°C hotter than they were in 1997–1998. That's a remarkable rise over just 18 years, in comparison to the 1°C the Earth's average surface temperatures have risen since the Industrial Revolution began.
This has all happened during a time when 'no significant warming in 18 years' has been one of the rallying cries of climate denial. In reality, when we compare apples to apples – El Niño years to El Niño years – we've seen more than 0.3°C global surface warming over the past 18 years, which is in line with climate model predictions. 'Climate models are wrong' has been another now-debunked climate denial rallying cry.
Now that the past year's El Niño event is over, the streak of record-breaking yearlong periods appears to have ended. Nevertheless, 2016 remains on track to break that record for the hottest calendar year, for an unprecedented third consecutive year, following record years in 2010 and 2005 as well.

With the Earth warming dangerously rapidly, at a rate 20–50 times faster than the fastest rate of natural global warming, one can't help but wonder when the influence of the small minority of disproportionately powerful climate denial groups will wane.
195 countries pledged to curb their carbon pollution in the tremendously successful Paris climate negotiations, but climate denial is still predominant in one of America's two political parties, and may be gaining foothold in other regions of the Anglosphere like the UK and Australia. Fortunately, many other countries like China, India, and Canada seem to be moving in the right direction with their climate and energy policies.
Now that climate denial's bread and butter arguments are toast, November's US elections will be critical in determining whether the country continues along the path of climate leadership established by President Obama, or allows the oil industry's puppet party to continue peddling long-debunked myths in order to delay climate action and put future generations at risk.
With global warming constantly breaking temperature records, and dozens of scientific organizations warning policymakers that "To reduce the risk of the most severe impacts of climate change, greenhouse gas emissions must be substantially reduced," we can no longer use ignorance as an excuse.

Links

• Climate scientists are under attack from frivolous lawsuits
• New research: climate may be more sensitive and situation more dire
• The War on Science will change how you see the world
• After 6 years of working on climate at Harvard, I implore it to show the courage to divest