2 Critical Climate Change Problems Most People Don’t Know About

CleanTechnica - Zachary Shahan

Global warming and climate change get a lot of attention — well, not in the mainstream media, but among niche media outlets like CleanTechnica. However, whether in the mainstream media or in niche publications, some of the big challenges of a quickly changing climate are not often highlighted, and I'm quite confident that most people haven't considered them at all.

Yes, people probably get the point that global warming and climate change mean higher sea levels, melting ice in the Arctic, fewer species, less snow for skiing, and bigger storms and droughts. But thinking 1–3 steps further doesn't seem to be all that common, and media coverage of the following topics has been slim or nonexistent in much of the mass media.

Climate Change = Mass Migration

Immigration and war are two hot topics of this year's US presidential election season. I'm an American immigrant living in Europe and I'm well aware that the United States itself is a country built by immigrants, pretty much continuously. I'm certainly not against immigration! However, without a doubt, fast, large-scale immigration often poses a challenge for countries taking in the immigrants.

The Migration Policy Institute writes: "The impact of climate change as a driver of human migration is expected by many to dwarf all others. … The most significant mechanisms of displacement are sea-level rise, higher temperatures, disruption of water cycles, and increasing severity of storms."

In the US, Mexican immigration is expected to increase due to global warming, according to Princeton University researchers. These immigrants have already been termed "climate migrants."

A study published in Nature Climate Change found that heat stress is a driver of migration out of rural Pakistan. Who's surprised?

A few major media outlets have covered this topic. The Guardian, TIME, and The Independent all have great pieces on it.

An article in The Guardian states: "Thanks to global climate change, mass migration could be the new normal."
An article in TIME writes: "Even as Europe wrestles over how to absorb the migrant tide, experts warn that the flood is likely to get worse as climate change becomes a driving factor."
From The Independent: "The current refugee crisis marks a watershed moment in the history of global warming because it's the first wave of emigration to be explicitly linked to climate change, according to one leading scientist, who predicts rises in temperature and increasingly extreme weather will unleash many more mass movements of people in the future."

Here's an extended quote from The Guardian:

"There are lots of estimates as to what we can expect to see in the near future, but the best known (and controversial) figure comes from Professor Norman Myers, who argues that climate change could cause 200 million people to be displaced by 2050.
"In fact, it's already happening. According to the Pentagon, climate change is a 'threat multiplier' and does appear to be increasing risk of conflict.
"Indeed a new study released in March suggests this is exactly what happened in Syria, after a severe drought in 2006. As the study's co-author, Professor Richard Seager, explains, 'We're not saying drought caused the [Syrian conflict]. We're saying that added to all the other stressors, it helped kick things over the threshold into open conflict. And a drought of that severity was made much more likely by the ongoing human-driven drying of that region.' "

Luckily, some leading bloggers have been writing about these connections for several years. From Think Progress, see this piece, this piece, this piece, and this piece. That last one leads into the logical next issue of concern about global warming and climate change ramifications in society.

Climate Change = War

Naturally, mass migration will put stresses on the countries where migrants are trying to move, and the stresses that lead to mass migration will also spur civil unrest within those countries.
From that last article linked above:

"A new study finds that human-caused climate change was a major trigger of Syria's brutal civil war. The war that helped drive the rise of the terrorist Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) was itself spawned in large part by what one expert called perhaps 'the worst long-term drought and most severe set of crop failures since agricultural civilizations began in the Fertile Crescent,' from 2006 to 2010."

I know, it's shocking. Who would have thought that an extremely long and harsh period of drought and crop failures would lead (in part) to civil unrest and war?

Going on:

"That drought destroyed the livelihood of 800,000 people according to the U.N. and sent vastly more into poverty. The poor and displaced fled to cities, 'where poverty, government mismanagement and other factors created unrest that exploded in spring 2011,' as the study's news release explains.The study, 'Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought,' found that global warming made Syria's 2006 to 2010 drought two to three times more likely.

A long article on the topic from Science Heathen eloquently summarizes:

"Modern civilization, and its massive number of infrastructure-dependent people, is almost entirely reliant upon the delicate infrastructure of the modern world for its survival. If any significant damage were to occur to this delicately-balanced infrastructure, large numbers of people would starve, be forced to migrate, or be motivated to war — while, in the process, becoming increasingly susceptible to disease and illness. …"Large scale war or civil collapse is almost an inevitability in regions facing very scarce freshwater resources, very limited agricultural-land/productivity, and large-populations. And these are exactly the conditions that many regions of the world are expected to face as climate change intensifies."

Indeed.

So, seriously, if you are concerned about the "modest" amount of migration and war we are seeing today, you better be concerned about global warming and climate change, and the ridiculous amount of societal disruption they will cause as they get more and more extreme.

(IMAGE)

The time is now to make a monumental shift to clean, renewable energy and electrification of transport, among other things.

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• Trump's Climate Proposals = "Existential Threat To This Planet," Michael Mann States
• Are TV Meteorologists Finally Embracing The Science Of Climate Change?
• July 2016 Claims Title Of Hottest Month On Record (By Far), Continuing Trend Of Blowout Year

Neither Coalition Nor Labor Emissions Reduction Targets Are Good Enough, Says Climate Body

The Guardian - Michael Slezak

Climate Institute report says negative-emissions technology is imperative because risks of global temperature reaching 2C are 'unmanageable'

2C of global warming would move the world into 'uncharted territory', analysis by Climate Analytics found. Photograph: John Giles/PA

Australia will blow its carbon budget with either the Coalition's emissions reduction targets, or those suggested by the Labor opposition, highlighting the urgent need for negative-emissions technology, analysis commissioned by the Climate Institute shows.
"Everyone is just now beginning to work out the implications of the 1.5C goal, and how hard it is to get to it," said John Connor, chief executive of the Climate Institute.
The report found that while the policy measures needed to keep global warming to 1.5C or 2C were similar, the risks and costs associated with letting global temperatures reach 2C would be "unmanageable".
Global warming of 1.5C would make rare events such as extreme heat waves and coral bleaching the new normal, but 2C of warming would move the world into "uncharted territory", the report by Climate Analytics found.

AUDIO ABC Radio National Breakfast: A new report for the Climate Institute has found significant differences between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius warming for Australia.

For Australia to cut its emissions in line with either target, it will almost certainly need to achieve negative emissions towards 2050.
But if the country follows its current targets to 2030 (26% to 28% below 2005 levels) it will then need to make devastating cuts, dropping to zero emissions within five years to stay within the carbon budget.
Even on the plan Labor took the election, which involved a cut to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050, will blow the carbon budget by 15%, the report found.
It said that "some level of negative emissions is virtually unavoidable at this stage, even with very rapid emissions reductions between now and 2050".
An earlier Climate Institute report, the group found technology such as bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage could play a role in removing 65m tonnes of CO2 annually by 2050.
The report argues that a carbon-budget approach should be taken by policymakers, rather than simply focusing on an emissions target for a particular year: "Australia's contribution to limiting warming to 1.5C-2C is determined by cumulative emissions, not emissions in a single year."
The report noted that decarbonisation of the electricity sector should be the biggest priority, since it is the biggest contributor to emissions. Doing that would also allow emissions in transport and other sectors to be cut by electrifying them.
For the world to achieve the more ambitious 1.5C goal, the strategies would be the same but would just need to occur faster. It said doing it faster would cost between 1.5 times and twice as much, but "the benefits would be vast".
Warming of 2C would destroy almost all tropical coral around the world, but keeping warming to 1.5C could save 10% of coral cover.
And 2C of warming would increase heatwave days in northern Australia by 60 a year; the lower target would save 20 of those days from such hot weather.
The stronger target would also have dramatic impacts on water availability and sea level rise.
Connor said the government's review of climate policies, which will occur next year, is an opportunity to create bipartisan support for credible targets. "It will quite possibly be the first credible national climate policy conversation for five years or so," he said.
For Australia to start moving towards an emissions goal that is consistent with the commitments made in Paris last year, the Climate Institute called for three broad actions.
First, a pathway to zero emissions needed to be designed, and it needed to get Australia to zero emissions well before 2050.
Second, it called for climate and energy policies to be fully integrated so that coal power can be phased out and businesses can invest with confidence in renewable energy.
Finally, it called for Australia to take the lead from business and defence agencies around the world that were integrating climate costs and opportunities into their everyday decision making. That should involve a "national adaptation strategy", it said.

Links

• New research shows climate extremes of today will be the normal of tomorrow
• Climate change: Warning of extreme events and a move into uncharted territory
• Keeping global warming to 1.5C, not 2C, will make a crucial difference to Australia, report says
• Richard Di Natale: global warming is the most urgent threat to Australia's security

Historical Documents Reveal Arctic Sea Ice Is Disappearing At Record Speed

The Guardian - Dana Nuccitelli

Summer Arctic sea ice is at its lowest since records began over 125 years ago

The 2015 Arctic sea ice summertime minimum (699,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average) is seen in a NASA visual representation of satellite data. Photograph: NASA/REUTERS

Scientists have pieced together historical records to reconstruct Arctic sea ice extent over the past 125 years. The results are shown in the figure below. The red line, showing the extent at the end of the summer melt season, is the most critical:

Time series of Arctic sea ice extent, 1850-2013, for March (blue line) and September (red line). Illustration: Walsh et al. (2016)

Arctic sea ice extent in recent years is by far the lowest it’s been, with about half of the historical coverage gone, and the decline the fastest it’s been in recorded history. Florence Fetterer, principal investigator at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, described the data reconstruction process in a guest post at Carbon Brief:

Prof John Walsh, now at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and Dr Mick Kelly, from the University of East Anglia (now retired), were pioneers at retrieving data. They hand-digitised information from sources, such as aerial surveys, from the US Navy and UK Meteorological Office, and from the Danish Meteorological Institute’s yearbook maps (see examples from 1978 and 1979 – both pdfs).
Walsh, along with Prof William Chapman from University of Illinois, used these various sources to make monthly grids in Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice concentrations, covering the period 1901-95.

However, as Fetterer explains, gaps remained in their records, which have now been filled into the NSIDC dataset using a variety of sources:

• The sea ice edge positions in the North Atlantic, between 1850 and 1978, derived from various sources, including newspapers, ship observations, aircraft observations, diaries and more. 
• Sea ice concentration data from regular aerial surveys of ice in the eastern Arctic by the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia, beginning in 1933. 
• Sea ice edge positions for Newfoundland and the Canadian Maritime Region from observations, for 1870 to 1962. 
• Detailed charts of ice in the waters around Alaska for 1954 to 1978, originally the property of a consulting firm (the Dehn collection). 
• Arctic-wide maps of ice cover from the Danish Meteorological Institute from 1901 to 1956. 
• Whaling ship logbook entries that noted ship position along with an indication of whether the ship was in the presence of ice.

A Danish Meteorological Institute ice chart for August, 1926. The red symbols mark the location of observations recorded in ship logbooks. Illustration: Walsh et al. (2016).

It’s not just the area of ice-covered ocean that’s shrunk; in fact, the volume of Arctic sea ice has declined even faster. As illustrated in this video created by Andy Lee Robinson, about two-thirds of the summer sea ice has disappeared in just 36 years as the warming oceans have thinned the ice.

Annual minimum Arctic sea ice volume 1979–2015, created by Andy Lee Robinson. 

Previous research has also shown that Arctic sea ice is at its lowest level in at least 1,450 years, and the recent decline is mostly due to human-caused global warming.
This dramatic change may be causing ripple effects throughout the Earth’s climate system. For example, some research has suggested a possible connection between the Arctic sea ice decline and the intensity of California’s recent record drought (although the connection is not definitive). Those record drought conditions in turn contributed to the intense wildfires currently raging across California. Other research has suggested possible connections between disappearing Arctic sea ice and extreme weather events, but again, these connections aren’t yet definitive.
The loss of ice causes what scientists call a feedback effect. Ice is highly reflective, while the ocean beneath is dark. When the ice on the ocean surface melts, the Arctic becomes less reflective and absorbs more sunlight, causing it to warm faster, melting more ice, causing more warming, and so on. This feedback is one of the main reasons why the Arctic is Earth’s fastest-warming region, with temperatures rising about twice as fast as in lower latitudes.
Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius predicted this Arctic amplification effect in 1896. As a result, the Arctic is effectively the ‘canary in the coal mine’ of the Earth’s climate, showing us the dramatic effects human-caused global warming can have on the climate system. The signal is clear, but the question remains whether we’ll take action, or stay in the coal mine.

Links

• Climate urgency: we've locked in more global warming than people realize
• Climate scientists make a bold prediction about sea level rise
• Rejection of experts spreads from Brexit to climate change with 'Clexit'
• New research shows penguins will suffer in a warming world

Climate Change Will Create New Ecosystems, So Let’s Help Plants Move

The Conversation - Ary Hoffmann

Australia's treeless alps are vulnerable to the spread of woody shrubs. Alps image from www.shutterstock.com

Australia's ecosystems are already showing the signs of climate change, from the recent death of mangrove forests in northern Australia, to the decline in birds in eastern Australia, to the inability of mountain ash forests to recover from frequent fires. The frequency and size of these changes will only continue to increase in the next few years.
This poses a major challenge for our national parks and reserves. For the past 200 years the emphasis in reserves has been on protection.
But protection is impossible when the environment is massively changing. Adaptation then becomes more important. If we are to help wildlife and ecosystems survive in the future, we'll have to rethink our parks and reserves.

A weedier world
Climate change is predicted to have a substantial effect on our plants and animals, changing the distribution and population of species. Some areas will become unfavourable to their current inhabitants, allowing other, often weedy, species to expand. There will likely be widespread losses in some ecosystems as extreme climate events take their toll, either directly by killing plants and animals, or indirectly by changing fire regimes.
While we can model some of these changes, we don't know exactly how ecosystems will respond to climate change.
Australia has an extensive natural reserve system, and models suggest that much of this system is expected to be altered radically in the next few decades, resulting in the formation of totally new ecosystems and/or shifts in ecosystems.
Yet with rapid climate change, it is likely that ecosystems will fail to keep up. Seeds are the only way for plants to move, and seeds can only travel so far. The distribution of plants might only shift by a few metres a year, whereas the velocity of climate change is expected to be much faster.
As a result, our ecosystems are likely to become dominated by a low diversity of native and exotic invasive species. These weedy species can spread long distances and take advantage of vacant spaces. Yet the exact nature of changes is unknown, particularly where evolutionary changes and physiological adaptation will assist some species but fail others.
Conservation managers are concerned because with increasing weediness will come a loss of biodiversity as well as declines in the overall health of ecosystems. Plant cover will decrease, triggering erosion in catchments that provide our water reservoirs. Rare animal species will be lost because a loss of plant cover makes them more susceptible to predators. A cascade of changes is likely.

From conservation to adaptation
While climate change threats are acknowledged in reports, we continue to focus on conserving the state of our natural environments, devoting scarce resources to keeping out weedy species, viewing vegetation communities as static, and using offsets to protect these static communities.
One way of preparing for the future is to start the process of deliberately moving species (and their genes) around the landscape in a careful and contained manner, accepting that rapid climate change will prevent this process from occurring quickly enough without some intervention.
Overseas plots covering several hectares have already been established that aim to achieve this at a large scale. For instance, in western North America there is a plot network that covers 48 sites and focuses on 15 tree species planted across a three-year period that covers temperature variation of 3-4°C.
In Australia, a small section of our reserve system, preferably areas that have already been damaged and/or disturbed, could be set aside for such an approach. As long as these plots are set up at a sufficiently large scale, they can act as nursery stock for the future. As fire frequency increases and exceeds some plants' survival capabilities, the surviving genes and species in these plots would then serve as sources for future generations. This approach is particularly important for species that set seed rarely.
Our best guesses about what will flourish in an area in the future will be wrong in some cases, right in others, but ongoing evolution by natural selection in the plots will help to sort out what really can survive at a particular location and contribute to biodiversity. With a network of plots established across a range of natural communities, our protected areas will become more adaptable for a future where many species and communities (along with the benefits they provide) could otherwise be lost entirely.
As in the case of North America, it would be good to see plots set up along environmental gradients. These might include from wet to dry heading inland, and from cold to warm heading north-south or with changing altitude.
One place to start might be the Australian Alps. We could set aside an area at higher altitude and plant low-altitude grasses and herbs. These may help current plants compete against woody shrubs that are expected to move towards our mountain summits.
Lower down, we might plant more fire-tolerant species in mountain ash forests. Near the coast, we might plant species from further inland that are better at handling drier conditions.
The overall plot network should be seen as part of our national research infrastructure for biodiversity management. In this way, we can build a valuable resource for the future that can serve the general community and complement our current ecosystem monitoring efforts.

Links

• Are national parks the best way to conserve nature?
• Climate change will transform the bush … and we'll have to think big to cope
• We can't save all wildlife, so conservation laws need to change
• Climate change is placing increasing pressure on Queensland's ecosystems

Dairy’s (Climate) Changing Future

University of Melbourne - Lauren Hull

The dairy industry is adaptive by nature, but farmers are likely to face a range of new challenges due to the ever-increasing impact of climate change
Twenty years from now, dairy farming will look and feel different.
By 2040, farmers will have to deal with warmer temperatures and more extreme weather events, while more variable rainfall will see seasons shift and feeding strategies altered.
Summers will extend well beyond the usual summer period and dry spells will last longer.
The forecast change has prompted a team of researchers at the University of Melbourne's Primary Industries Climate Challenges Centre and Dairy Australia to apply climate modelling to specific farms to analyse how key Australian dairy regions might perform in the future.

A cow being milked at the University of Melbourne's robotic dairy at the Dookie campus. Picture: University of Melbourne

And beyond the impacts of a changing climate, the first-of-its-kind study has also asked: how will Australian dairy farmers be producing milk in the future?
The answer? The major finding across each of the regions and climate scenarios studied is that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to dairy farming under future climates.
Using three farms; in Victoria's Gippsland region, South Australia's Fleurieu Peninsula and north-west Tasmania, researchers applied climate, biophysical and economic models to develop projections for each farm system.
Researchers Dr Brendan Cullen and Dr Margaret Ayre, from the University of Melbourne, worked alongside scientists from the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, economists, farm consultants and farmers from the three regions to develop a comprehensive picture of how each farm might perform.
"Most significantly, we'll see a shift in the pasture growing season. Growth rates will be higher in winter and early spring but lower for the rest of the year. Overall, this means less pasture production and that will create a real feed challenge. Farmers will need to adapt. They might buy in more feed, or alter stocking rates and calving times."
The climate change scenarios for 2040 were based on the climate projections used in the IPCC 5th Assessment report. The team also used a biophysical dairy modelling tool co-developed at the University of Melbourne ('DairyMod') to assess the impacts of the future climates on dairy production systems.
Dr Cullen says the 2040 timeframe was chosen because it provided projections that were tangible for farmers involved in the project.
"The farmers we were working with wanted to know what their system would look like one generation into the future," Dr Cullen says.
"They felt that there was too much uncertainty beyond 2040 about how farm systems would change, particularly through genetic and technological advances, along with uncertainty about climate change projections."

A video summary of the project's findings. Video: Dairy Australia

Three regional working groups, each made up of five or six farmers and farm consultants, helped the research team identify a representative farm in each region on which to base the projections. While every farm is different, Dr Cullen says this approach enabled them to test a diverse range of production systems in detail and apply some of the lessons across the regions.
The working groups were involved in the project from inception to completion, playing a vital role in both ensuring the research questions were locally relevant and 'ground-truthing' the results, he explained.

Development options
Dr Cullen and the team looked at a range of different business development options to explore how farmers might adapt their farms to manage challenges such as this. The options broadly represented a trajectory from 'less intensified' to 'more intensified' dairy production.
One critical finding was that climate change had a negative effect on the profitability of each farm regardless of the development option, largely because higher temperatures and longer dry spells reduced pasture utilisation.
Across the three case study farms, the research identified a loss of operating profit of 10-30% due to climate change in 2040 if farmers did not adapt to the warmer and drier climates.
But each development option offered opportunities and trade-offs, depending on the region and farmers' attitudes to risk. For example, large profits could be made in the more intensified systems when milk prices are high and feed is relatively cheap, but large losses are likely if milk price is low and feed is expensive. The least intensified options generally had the lowest average profit, but also had the least year-to-year variability in profit and were generally less impacted by climate change.

Despite climate change impacts, other factors are more critical to dairy farm profitability, including milk prices. Picture: mojitopt/Flickr

Importantly though, milk price is expected to affect profitability more than climate change, with the current milk price crisis serving to highlight the importance of milk price variability in dairy businesses.
According to Dr Cullen, if the milk price variation that has been observed over the last decade were to continue, it will have a greater influence on farm profit than the direct impacts of climate.
The Australian dairy industry has been on a long term trend of intensification, but Dr Cullen says the simpler, less intensified systems tested are realistic alternatives under future climates.
"For dryland dairy farms, we found a less-intensified system had similar average levels of profitability but were less risky compared to more intensive systems," Dr Cullen says.
"That might mean a shift to smaller herds, less grain feeding, more off-farm agistment or lower stocking rate – the reverse of what we've seen in past decades.
"Dairy farming can certainly continue to be viable into the future, but the project has clearly identified that there is a need for the industry and farmers to continue to adapt to changing climatic conditions in order to remain profitable."
For project leader Gillian Hayman, a dairy extension consultant at Dairy Australia and dairy farmer from southern Gippsland, the project's findings have confirmed the challenges she sees ahead for the dairy industry.
"Many of the farmers involved in the research had observed and managed through variable climatic seasons in the past. Floods, bush fires, heat waves, extremely wet winters and extended dry periods have all been a part of the last 15 years for farmers," she says.
"Dairy farmers already need to be at the top of their game, adapt to conditions and continually review their game plan from season to season. Climate change is yet another pressure on farmers along with milk price variability."
Good management and skill development has been critical in the past and will continue to be crucial, to ensure dairy farmers can manage profitable businesses into the future, Ms Hayman explained.
Dr Ayre led the social science component of the project, interviewing farmers and farm consultants to gauge the level of preparedness for climate change.
"We found that dairy farmers have a good awareness of what climate change will mean for their system, and that they're generally confident that they can adapt to incremental changes – for example, by adjusting feeding regimes and calving patterns,'' Dr Ayre says.

Dr Brendan Cullen (second from right) and Dr Margaret Ayre (far right) chat with farmers in Gippsland during a workshop. Picture: Gillian Hayman

"One area that we're concerned farmers aren't prepared for is the more extreme changes from climate averages. Recent heat waves have been a challenge for many."
Dr Ayre and the team said one of the strengths of the industry was the opportunity for professional development through discussion workshops, much like those conducted through their project.
Farmers reported that learning from peers was key when adopting new management practices.
The project suggests the dairy industry can support adaptation by farmers by providing specific professional development in business risk management including financial risks (seasonal and annual budgeting), biophysical risks (farm water planning) and social risks (farm workforce planning). A strong advisory sector is also critical to supporting adaptation and the dairy industry can support this through playing a role in coordination and linking private advisors, industry and government extension services with farmers and their networks.
Positively, the research team found that dairy farmers are already adapting to the changing climate conditions.
Farmers reported they were increasing the amount of shade and shelter available for stock during extreme weather events, increasing farm water storage and carrying larger fodder reserves from year to year.
The study's predictions on what future climates will mean for pasture production and farm profitability highlight the critical need for the industry to foster continued and more widespread adaptation in a warming and drying climate.

Featured academics: Dr Brendan Cullen | Dr Margaret Ayre

Links

• Climate change: what it means for fruits
• The black spot on Australia's chilli industry

A Farewell To Ice By Peter Wadhams Review – Climate Change Writ Large

The Guardian - Horatio Clare

The warning this book gives us about the consequences of the loss of the planet's ice is emphatic, urgent and convincing

An Adélie penguin, east Antarctica: the loss of our sea ice will have dire consequences across the planet, not just at the poles, says Peter Wadhams. Photograph: Staff/Reuters

 Becoming a world authority on sea ice has taken Peter Wadhams to the polar zones more than 50 times, travelling on foot and by plane, ship, snowmobile and several nuclear-powered submarines of the Royal Navy.
Nonscientists who read his astonishing and hair-raising A Farewell to Ice will agree that the interludes of autobiography it contains are engrossing, entertaining and, when one submarine suffers an onboard explosion and fire while under the ice, harrowing.
Any reader should find the science of sea-ice creation and the implications for us all of its loss – explored and explained here with clarity and style – beautiful, compelling and terrifying.
Wadhams thanks Ernest Hemingway for his title. Climate change, a cause and an effect of ice loss, brings conflict that would have interested the great author. Persecuted by trolls and climate-change deniers, Wadhams made news last year when three of his peers met premature deaths. One fell down stairs. One died in wilderness, possibly struck by lightning. A third, out cycling, was crushed by a lorry. Claiming that he had been targeted by a lorry while cycling, Wadhams speculated that oil companies or governments had it in for him and his ilk because of the conclusions to which their work has led them. But his book is more extraordinary than any conspiracy.
A Farewell to Ice proceeds methodically. Ice cores, tubes of compacted polar snow, record the last million years of atmospheric change, during which the Earth has oscillated between ice ages and warm periods. Now the pattern is breaking.
"Our planet has changed colour. Today, from space, the top of the world in the northern summer looks blue instead of white. We have created an ocean where there was once an ice sheet. It is Man's first major achievement in reshaping the face of his planet," Wadhams writes.
Polar ice is thinning and retreating with unprecedented speed. All our ingenuity cannot, at present, change that. Because ice only grows in winter but can melt year-round, its growth rate is limited, while melt rate is unlimited.
Ice is extraordinary stuff. A "puckered honeycomb" of oxygen and hydrogen atoms, it is highly mutable in different states because the length of the hydrogen bonds in its molecules varies. Ice exists near absolute zero, the lowest temperature theoretically possible. Recent research suggests it may have entirely covered the Earth three times, making "snowball Earths". Ice coats space dust, giving stars their twinkle. Life may have originated in that shining dust, according to the astronomer Fred Hoyle. Polar ice functions as Earth's air- and water-conditioning system, and our thermostat.
Wadhams outlines how CO₂ emissions are smashing the system, spinning the thermostat to hot. Without the albedo effect of ice – by which it reflects solar radiation up to 10 times more effectively than open water – we have entered a negative feedback loop.
Wadhams puts this plainly. "There is no period in Earth's history where the rate of rise of atmospheric CO₂ is as great as it is today." The asteroid that finished the dinosaurs blasted 4.5 gigatonnes of carbon into the atmosphere, "yet the CO₂ rate rise [in the aftermath] was still an order of magnitude lower than the current rate".
The ice he worries about most covers Arctic seabeds – permafrost from the last ice age. Losing this will release huge methane plumes. Methane is 23 times more effective in raising global temperature than is CO₂. Wadhams and colleagues have modelled the consequences using different dates for methane release.

We act, decisively and immediately, or our grandchildren pay full price, with our children impotent to help them

A business-as-usual approach by humanity makes 2035 a plausible moment for the permafrost to melt and methane to escape. The worst floods, fires, droughts and storms we have seen will be as nothing to what Africa, Asia and the Americas experience in this scenario. Millions die. Low-lying areas are inundated. Survivors live in a patchy post-apocalypse. Europe's current refugee crisis would be dwarfed.
We still have time, A Farewell to Ice concludes, for drastic action, despite long procrastination. The fall of Margaret Thatcher was bad for the ice: she was a fan of Wadhams's work, quoting him extensively in her efforts to set up a body to understand and mitigate the loss of sea ice. Subsequent prime ministers did little or worse than nothing, suppressing facts that lobbyists in business and industry (some of them former Thatcherite ministers like Lord Lawson and Peter Lilley) did not like.
Last year's Paris agreement, when global leaders resolved to prevent a temperature rise of 2C (with an aspiration of 1.5C), gives Wadhams hope. He believes there is now a common will across the world to confront and avert the nightmare. Solutions include wind, wave, solar, tidal and nuclear energy (not the perilous water-cooled reactor type David Cameron wanted for Hinkley Point, which have a terrible record, but the "pebble bed" type, apparently) and, above all, direct air capture (DAC), which has yet to be invented.
You pump air through a system that removes the CO₂ and "either liquefies it or turns it chemically into something useful", Wadhams says. Salvation requires "a [DAC] research programme on the scale of the Manhattan Project" and voluntary change by all: home insulation, no more SUVs or budget flights. We act, decisively and immediately, or our grandchildren pay full price, with our children impotent to help them, if you believe this book. I am afraid I do.

Links

• 'Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice' 
• These are the best arguments from the 3% of climate scientist 'skeptics.' Really.
• Seven climate records set so far in 2016
• Greenland sees record-smashing early ice sheet melt

Historic Industry Faces Climate Change

AAP

David Goethel returns to harbor in Hampton, N.H. Robert F. Bukaty, The Associated Press

The cod isn't just a fish to David Goethel. It's his identity, his ticket to middle-class life, his link to a historic industry. "I paid for my education, my wife's education, my house, my kids' education; my slice of America was paid for on cod," said Goethel, a 30-year veteran of these waters that once teemed with New England's signature fish.
But on this chilly Saturday, after 12 hours out in the Gulf of Maine, he has caught exactly two cod, and he feels far removed from the 1990s, when he could catch 2,000 pounds in a day.
His boat is the only vessel pulling into the Yankee Fishermen's Co-op in Seabrook. Fifteen years ago, there might have been a half-dozen. He is carrying crates of silver hake, skates and flounder - all worth less than cod.
One of America's oldest commercial industries, fishing along the coast of the Northeast still employs hundreds. But every month that goes by, those numbers fall. After centuries of weathering overfishing, pollution, foreign competition and increasing government regulation, the latest challenge is the one that's doing them in: climate change.

Climate change
Though no waters are immune to the ravages of climate change, the Gulf of Maine, a dent in the coastline from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia, best illustrates the problem.
The gulf is now warming faster than 99 per cent of the world's oceans, scientists have said.
The warming waters have caused other valuable species, such as clams, to migrate to deeper or more northern waters. Others, such as lobsters, have largely abandoned the once-lucrative waters off the southern New England states of Connecticut and Rhode Island, having become more susceptible to disease or predators.
Lobster catches in Maine are booming as the species creeps northward, but as the warming continues, that's a good thing bound to end.
Fish aren't the only ones moving on, and not just in the Northeast. The US fishing fleet has dwindled from more than 120,000 vessels in 1996 to about 75,000 today, the Coast Guard says.
For the fishermen of the northeastern US - not all of whom accept the scientific consensus on climate change, and many of whom bristle at government regulations stemming from it - whether to stick with fishing, adapt to the changing ocean or leave the business is a constant worry.
Michael Mohr harvested surf clams for almost 30 of his 55 years, and his desire to stay in the only business he has ever known now takes him far from his family.
The clams he caught for decades feed tourists and locals alike in towns all along the coast. Now, those clams, which he once caught off New Jersey, are found northward or farther out to sea.
Mohr has also moved on. About 10 years ago, he started commuting six hours each way from his home in Mays Landing, New Jersey, to the former whaling port of New Bedford, Massachusetts. He has also switched clam species; he got his start fishing for Atlantic surf clams but now pursues the ocean quahog.
The quahog is well known to New England diners as a stuffed clam or in its own kind of chowder. Both quahogs and surf clams populate supermarket seafood sections.
The reason for Mohr's decision has been documented by published science, as well as on the decks of the boat he fishes from, the ESS Pursuit. Moving north for quahogs was a way to remain a clammer.
"We're finding clams in deeper water instead of inshore water, where we used to work 25 years ago," Mohr said. "It's just affecting everything."
Mohr's migration story is common in the clamming business, said Dave Wallace, a Maryland-based consultant in the industry. It was once based largely off Atlantic City, near Mohr's home, but has shifted northward along with the clams, he said.
Some fishermen have decided to instead pursue quahogs, as Mohr has, while others now travel farther out to sea to harvest surf clams. The surf clam fishery has slipped somewhat in the face of the changes, with a little less than 41 million pounds caught in 2014, the second-lowest total since 1980.
Mohr is undaunted. Clamming has been good to him, and if he has to spend more time on the road as he nears 60, so be it.
"It's just a way of life," Mohr said. "You've got to go where the money is at, and you're happy. Right now, I'm happy."

Links

• David Goethel | Center For Sustainable Fisheries
• Fading fishermen: A historic industry faces a warming world
• Gulf of Maine Fishermen Face Warming 'Double Whammy'
• Northeastern fishermen struggling with warming waters