Thousands Of Scientists Issue Bleak ‘Second Notice’ To Humanity

Washington Post - Sarah Kaplan

Planet Earth (NASA)

In late 1992, 1,700 scientists from around the world issued a dire “warning to humanity.” They said humans had pushed Earth's ecosystems to their breaking point and were well on the way to ruining the planet. The letter listed environmental impacts like they were biblical plagues — stratospheric ozone depletion, air and water pollution, the collapse of fisheries and loss of soil productivity, deforestation, species loss and  catastrophic global climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
“If not checked,” wrote the scientists, led by particle physicist and Union of Concerned Scientists co-founder Henry Kendall, “many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know.”
But things were only going to get worse.
To mark the letter's 25th anniversary, researchers have issued a bracing follow-up. In a communique published Monday in the journal BioScience, more than 15,000 scientists from 184 countries assess the world's latest responses to various environmental threats. Once again, they find us sorely wanting.
“Humanity has failed to make sufficient progress in generally solving these foreseen environmental challenges, and alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse,” they write.
This letter, spearheaded by Oregon State University ecologist William Ripple, serves as a “second notice,” the authors say: “Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory.”
Global climate change sits atop the new letter's list of planetary threats. Global average temperatures have risen by more than half a degree Celsius since 1992, and annual carbon dioxide emissions have increased by 62 percent.
But it's far from the only problem people face. Access to fresh water has declined, as has the amount of forestland and the number of wild-caught fish (a marker of the health of global fisheries). The number of ocean dead zones has increased. The human population grew by a whopping 2 billion, while the populations of all other mammals, reptiles, amphibians and fish have declined by nearly 30 percent.
The lone bright spot exists way up in the stratosphere, where the hole in the planet's protective ozone layer has shrunk to its smallest size since 1988. Scientists credit that progress to the phasing out of chlorofluorocarbons — chemicals once used in refrigerators, air conditioners and aerosol cans that trigger reactions in the atmosphere to break down ozone.
“The rapid global decline in ozone depleting substances shows that we can make positive change when we act decisively,” the letter says.
The authors offer 13 suggestions for reining in our impact on the planet, including establishing nature reserves, reducing food waste, developing green technologies and establishing economic incentives to  shift patterns of consumption.
To this end, Ripple and his colleagues have formed a new organization, the Alliance of World Scientists, aimed at providing a science-based perspective on issues affecting the well-being of people and the planet.
“Scientists are in the business of analyzing data and looking at the long-term consequences,” Ripple said in a release. “Those who signed this second warning aren't just raising a false alarm. They are acknowledging the obvious signs that we are heading down an unsustainable path. We are hoping that our paper will ignite a widespread public debate about the global environment and climate.”

Links

• The Earth's ozone hole is shrinking and is the smallest it has been since 1988
• Fossil fuel emissions will reach an all-time high in 2017, scientists say — dashing hopes of progress
• Trump's top environmental pick says she has 'many questions' about climate change

Up To 40 Per Cent Of Canberra Trees Face Some Risk From Climate Change

Fairfax - Nicole Hasham

As many as 40 per cent of Canberra's trees would be at some risk from increased temperatures under a business-as-usual scenario in which emissions continue to increase to 2070.
New research has found climate change severely threatens the health of more than one-third of tree species in Australia's cities.
The federally funded study of 1.5 million trees in 29 council areas across Australia found that higher temperatures and urban heat means new tree species may be introduced, existing trees must be given special care and some trees may disappear in certain locations.

Trees in Australian cities threatened by climate change
Research from the University of Melbourne has found that street trees and urban forests are facing a grave threat if emissions keep rising.

More than four in 10 houses in Australia's capital cities have a street tree.
Trees can greatly affect people's experience of a city - providing shade, places for recreation and a sense of place and heritage.

Trees surrounding the National Library. Photo: Claire Lander

They also cool the city, capture rain, slow stormwater and provide habitat for birds and other animals.
But the study found 24 per cent of all public trees, or 35 per cent of tree species, were at high risk from increased temperatures under a business-as-usual scenario in which emissions continue to increase to 2070.
Some 14 per cent of all public trees, or 22 per cent of tree species, were at high risk of increased temperatures if emissions were limited, in line with international commitments, in the years to 2040.
Trees were deemed at high risk when predicted temperatures were warmer than 97.5 per cent of locations where the species is found – making them particularly susceptible to drought, physiological stress and pest and disease outbreaks.
In Canberra, 5 per cent of trees were at high risk under a business-as-usual scenario, including two species of eucalyptus and a European elm. A further 35 per cent of trees were at some risk.
In the City of Sydney, 50 per cent of trees were at high risk under a business-as-usual scenario. They included brush box, European nettles, grey oaks and several eucalypt species.
In the inner west Sydney suburb of Marrickville, a business-as-usual scenario put 40 per cent of trees at high risk, including casuarina she-oaks, black locusts and several eucalyptus species.
Some 32 per cent of trees were at risk under business-as-usual in the City of Melbourne. They included several species of elms, oaks and eucalypts.
Melbourne's inner north City of Moreland would see 26 per cent of trees at high risk under a business-as-usual scenario, such as purple-leafed plums, prairie crabapples and the narrow-leafed ash.
Darwin had the highest proportion of trees – 85 per cent - most at high risk if emission levels rose to 2070, while Ballarat had just 1 per cent at high risk.
Risks to trees were posed by both rising global temperatures and the urban "heat island" effect, where localised warming occurs due to dark-coloured and paved surfaces, buildings and the emission of heat from human activities.
The study was conducted by the Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub, a consortium of four universities funded by the Department of Environment and Energy.
It said "changes to the composition and the traits of the urban forest will lead to changes in the sense of place and identity of cities."
"Many cities in south-eastern Australia have a strong European colonial heritage expressed in their many broad-leaved deciduous trees that is likely to change under future climates," it said.
Conversely, local native trees helped create unique city identities and connections to natural heritage and traditional Indigenous ownership.
The report said urban forest managers could adapt to increasing temperatures by providing irrigation or improved pest and disease management, improved tree maintenance and  selecting trees that are better adapted to future climates.

Links

• Millions of city trees at risk from rising temperatures
• Re-inventing our cities to be greener, smarter and more cultured
• International exhibition puts sustainability at the heart of design
• Stressed urban forests to benefit from new tree experts

First CO2 Rise In Four Years Puts Pressure On Paris Targets

BBC - Matt McGrath

Consumption of coal has grown once again in China after three years of decline. Getty Images

Global emissions of CO2 in 2017 are projected to rise for the first time in four years, dashing hopes that a peak might soon be reached.
The main cause of the expected growth has been greater use of coal in China as its economy expanded.
Researchers are uncertain if the rise in emissions is a one-off or the start of a new period of CO2 build-up.
Scientists say that a global peak in CO2 before 2020 is needed to limit dangerous global warming this century.The Global Carbon Project has been analysing and reporting on the scale of emissions of CO2 since 2006.
Carbon output has grown by about 3% per year in that period, but growth essentially declined or remained flat between 2014 and 2016.Concern at first CO2 rise in four years.

The latest figures indicate that in 2017, emissions of CO2 from all human activities grew by about 2% globally.
There is some uncertainty about the data but the researchers involved have concluded that emissions are on the rise again.
"Global CO2 emissions appear to be going up strongly once again after a three-year stable period. This is very disappointing," said the lead author of the study, Prof Corinne Le Quéré from the University of East Anglia.
"With global CO2 emissions from human activities estimated at 41 billion tonnes for 2017, time is running out on our ability to keep warming well below 2 degrees C, let alone 1.5C."
The most important element in causing this rise has been China, which is responsible for around 28% of the global total. Emissions there went up 3.5% in 2017, mainly because of increased coal use, driven in the main by a growing economy.

US coal production has increased slightly this year mainly due to export demand. Getty Images

 Another important factor in China has been lower water levels in rivers which have seen a drop in the amount of electricity made from hydro-power, with utilities turning to coal and gas to make up the shortfall.
US emissions have continued to decline but the fall has been less than expected. Higher prices saw a drop in the use of natural gas for electricity - with renewables and hydro-power picking up the slack.
Coal use has also grown slightly in the US this year, with consumption up about a half of one percent.
India's emissions are projected to grow by about 2%, which is a considerable decrease from around 6% per year over the last decade.
However, experts believe that this may be a temporary drop-off caused by a number of factors that have hampered the consumption of oil and cement.

Action required
Europe also saw a smaller decline than expected, falling by 0.2% compared with 2.2% over the last 10 years.
One common theme around the world is continued use of gas and oil, says Prof Le Quéré.
"There have been lots of ups and downs in the use of coal but in the background there has been no weakening in the use of oil and gas. And that is quite worrisome."
The report has been launched in Bonn where UN negotiators are trying to move forward with the rules for the Paris climate agreement.
Researchers involved with the study say they are not moving fast enough.
"Lots of diplomats are working out the rules but that is all a little bit meaningless unless they go back home to their countries and ratchet up climate action and that is where the gap is," said Dr Glen Peters, from the Centre for International Climate Research in Norway.
"These countries have to be pushing on with the policies, but everything keeps getting pushed back."

Demonstrators at UN talks in Bonn demand faster cuts in carbon. Sean Hawkey/WCC

The report is sure to increase tensions in Bonn between developed and developing nations.
There is increasing resentment about the fact that all the focus is on future commitments made under the Paris climate agreement but very little on the years before it becomes active.
Poorer countries want the richer ones to increase their carbon-cutting actions over the next three years.
"The climate will not let us wait until 2020 when the Paris agreement comes into force," said Nicaragua's chief negotiator, Paul Oquist.
"Climate change is happening now and it's vital that immediate actions to cut emissions become a feature of this summit."
The new research on carbon emissions has been published simultaneously in the journals Nature Climate Change, Earth System Science Data Discussions and Environmental Research Letters.

Links

• Trump emissions threat to US car industry
• Record surge in atmospheric CO2 in 2016
• A brief history of the Earth's CO2
• Guide: What is climate change?

Ardern Calls For End On Subsidies Of Fossil Fuels

NewstalkZB - NZ Newswire

Jacinda Ardern made the call at an APEC conference. Photo/Getty

Sitting next to the vice president of the world's largest public oil and gas company, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has called for an end to subsidies for fossil fuels.
Instead the world needs to find the right incentives to drive change toward sustainable resources, she told the APEC CEO's Summit where she appeared on a panel alongside Exxon Mobil vice president Robert Franklin.
Ardern has frequently described climate change as the greatest issue of her generation and did so again on Friday.
"It's literally lapping at our feet," she said.
"Our relative size or contribution doesn't matter when it comes to our international responsibility. No matter how small we are we have a role to play, as we all do."
Ardern shared her government's plan for a climate commission and a transition to 100 per cent renewable energy by 2035.
Described by the panel moderator as "one of the youngest and most vibrant leaders we have ever seen on this stage" Ms Ardern took aim at the US$500 billion spent by governments every year to subsidise fossil fuels which is four times the amount spent on renewables.
"We must faze them out. It is incumbent on us to begin incentivising investment in the right technologies."
Franklin said energy had to be provided in a way that was affordable to all users but acknowledged it had to be done in a way that was respectful to the environment.
Exxon Mobil, the world's largest publicly listed oil and gas company, has indicated in the past that climate change would not stop it selling fossil fuels.
"Having theoretical resources which are not affordable for consumers punishes economies around the world and we've seen that many times," Franklin said.
He talked up the the substitution of natural gas and coal as being behind to the largest industrial sector
"People don't like to hear it but in practice it has reduced CO2 emissions in the US by more than every (solar) panel and every wind turbine," he said.
But he added that fact wasn't to say governments and industries shouldn't explore those options.
Ardern finished up the panel by recognising the issue of competing demands around the affordability of renewable energy for developing nations, but pointed out that many of those would feel the effects of climate change first.

Links

• Jacinda Ardern makes debut on world stage telling APEC 'climate change is the greatest challenge facing this generation'
• Everyone must address climate change: Ardern
• Jacinda Ardern: It's my responsibility to lead on climate change
• Jacinda Ardern: New Zealand's female PM takes on Apec

Medibank To Dump Holdings In Fossil Fuels Over Climate Change Health Fears

Fairfax - Nicole Hasham

Medibank, one of Australia's biggest health insurers, has announced it will dump its holdings in fossil fuel companies amid concern over the health effects of climate change.
In a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange on Monday morning, Medibank said it would transition to low-carbon investments in its international portfolio within the next year, to reflect the global transition to clean energy.

Medibank chairwoman Elizabeth Alexander. Photo: John Woudstra

"We are also committed to exploring a similar approach with our domestic equity portfolio, and so we will be actively encouraging fund managers to develop a suitable product for us that is socially responsible, cost effective and delivers a sustainable investment return," the statement said.
The announcement by chairwoman Elizabeth Alexander preceded the company's annual general meeting in Melbourne on Monday.

Medibank said it would transition to low-carbon investments in its international portfolio within the next year. Photo: AP

"We understand that the health of the environment has an impact on the health of the community ... Medibank acknowledges the science of climate change and the impacts on human health," the statement said.

"We also recognise our role as a corporate citizen, and the increasing expectations the community has of corporate Australia."
Divestment from fossil fuel companies has emerged as a key front in the fight against climate change, helped by major institutions that have started to divest, including Norway's government pension fund.
Since about 2011, institutions across Australia – which is among the world's highest per person emitters of carbon dioxide – have been under pressure to offload their stakes in mining and non-renewable energy companies.
Campaigns have targeted universities, churches, local councils, superannuation funds and banks.
Environmental finance group Market Forces said the announcement by Medibank, which has 3.8 million members, means all of Australia's major health insurers have now agreed to shift their money from fossil fuels.
"It's extremely positive that Medibank has ended its unhealthy addiction to fossil fuels," campaigner Pablo Brait said.
"The medical profession has long understood that climate change has a devastating effect on people's health, so it stands to reason medical insurers should not be invested in the industries which drive it."

Links

• Medibank to pull back from carbon polluting investments
• Medibank drops fossil-fuel investments worth tens of millions of dollars
• Medibank to cut high-carbon investments
• Medibank reduces exposure to carbon-intensive assets

COP23: With Trump Absent At UN climate Talks, Pope Francis Blames 'Short-Sighted' Humans For Global Warming

The Independent - Jeff Farrell

The pontiff has become an authoritative voice on climate change, all the more so as the US leadership has abdicated responsibility

Pope Francis shares the concerns of the president of Nauru, Baron Waqa, over rising sea levels that are affecting the tiny Pacific island AP

Pope Francis has denounced "short-sighted human activity" for causing global warming and rising sea levels, and urged world leaders at climate talks in Germany to act in tackling heat-trapping emissions.
The pontiff spoke out as he met a delegation of Pacific leaders in the Vatican and told them he shares their concerns about rising sea levels and increasingly intense weather systems that are threatening their small islands.
He decried in particular the state of oceans, where overfishing and pollution by plastics and micro-plastics are killing fish stocks and sea life that are critical to Pacific island livelihoods.
While several causes are to blame, "sadly, many of them are due to short-sighted human activity connected with certain ways of exploiting natural and human resources, the impact of which ultimately reaches the ocean bed itself," the pontiff warned.
History's first Latin American pope has often spoken out against global warming and the impact it has in particular on poor and indigenous peoples. Praise Be, his landmark 2015 encyclical (a type of letter concerning Catholic doctrine), denounced how wealthy countries exploit the poor, risking turning God's creation into an "immense pile of filth”.
The Pacific leaders praised the encyclical for drawing attention to those most vulnerable to climate change, including residents of small Pacific islands for whom rising sea levels pose an existential threat.
The president of Nauru, Baron Waqa, told Pope Francis that Pacific island leaders would urge negotiators at Bonn to uphold the Paris climate accord, where governments made commitments to keep global temperature rise this century below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5C.
Mr Waqa warned that the 1.5C-rise was a crucial threshold: "There only remains a few years before we exceed carbon dioxide levels that will make temperature rise to levels that will see many parts of the Pacific disappear," he said.
Pope Francis told the Pacific leaders that he hoped the Bonn talks would take their plight into consideration, and look for a shared strategy to confront the "grave problems" facing the environment and oceans.
World leaders are meeting in Bonn in the first major conference on climate change since US president Donald Trump announced the US withdrawal from the Paris climate accord.

Links

• Vatican climate change meeting 'big deal' for Pacific
• Pope Francis calls for leaders to address climate change and pollution
• US 'should be kicked out of UN climate talks because of Trump'
• Trump is not invited to our next climate change summit, says France
• Syria signs Paris Agreement leaving US only country to refuse deal

Coal-Fired Plant Shifted $1bn Offshore While Pocketing $117m From Australian Taxpayers

The Guardian - Christopher Knaus | Nick Evershed

Payment to owner of Loy Yang B – one of country’s dirtiest plants – was compensation for short-lived carbon tax

The Loy Yang power plants in Victoria. The Paradise Papers revelation has prompted renewed criticism of Australia’s climate policy. Photograph: Bloomberg via Getty Images

The owner of one of Australia’s dirtiest coal-fired power plants quietly moved $1bn offshore within days of pocketing $117m from taxpayers in compensation for Labor’s now-defunct carbon tax.
The revelation, contained in the Paradise Papers, has prompted renewed criticism of the “chronic failure” of Australian climate policy and warnings against future cash handouts to multinational polluters.
It also comes in the final stages of the looming sale of the plant, Loy Yang B, one of the last remaining brown coal-fired generators in Victoria’s Latrobe valley.
In 2012, fearing an industry backlash, Julia Gillard’s government created a $5.5bn compensation scheme to accompany its carbon tax, which Tony Abbott scrapped two years later.
The $5.5bn energy security fund was dubbed by the shadow environment minister, Greg Hunt, as “the biggest cash handouts in Australian history” made to the companies thought to be the country’s “biggest polluters”.

One of the big winners was the owner of Loy Yang B, the British-listed company International Power, which in turn was owned by the French multinational GDF Suez – now known as Engie.
Loy Yang B’s owner received $116.9m in carbon tax compensation from the government’s energy security fund on 22 June 2012, money it had been anticipating since it was first announced in March.
It was also promised 4.87m free carbon units – in effect a permission to emit – each year for four years.

Within days of the $116.9m payment from taxpayers, Loy Yang B’s owner upstreamed $1bn out of its Australian operations

The compensation package was met with derision from energy and climate experts. Chief among its critics was the Australian energy market analyst Bruce Mountain, who warned that the compensation would simply be treated by polluters as windfall profit.
Mountain’s firm, CME, published analysis in 2013 showing generators were passing on the carbon tax’s costs to consumers and keeping the compensation as profit.
New revelations about the movement of wealth from Loy Yang B’s Australian entities have now been made in the Paradise Papers, based on millions of documents from two offshore service providers and the company registries of 19 tax havens. The material was obtained by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and shared by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists with partners including the Guardian.
The documents reveal that within days of receiving the compensation, Loy Yang B’s owner upstreamed $1bn in dividends out of its Australian operations as part of its aptly named “Project Salmon”.
Mountain is far from surprised. He said it was simply further evidence that the policy of polluter compensation was a “chronic failure”.
“That they would have such largesse to dispatch back to their parent, it doesn’t surprise me at all,” Mountain told Guardian Australia. “It was a pure windfall, that compensation. The compensation scheme was very badly designed.”
The Australian companies behind Loy Yang B had used internal loans to give large amounts of money back to their British parent companies in the lead-up to 2012.
Project Salmon involved restructuring the debt, so the Australian entities could use the $1bn in dividend payments to cancel the loans.
Engie said in a statement that the dividends did not involve the distribution of any cash outside of Australia. It also flatly denied sending any of the carbon tax compensation back to its offshore owners.
“No cash was distributed out of Australia as a consequence of these dividends,” the company said.
“Where dividends were paid in cash they did not include compensation received from the government. Further, carbon tax compensation was not permitted to be distributed overseas under the project finance restrictions and was used to meet the future carbon tax liabilities of Loy Yang B.”
The $1bn dividend payments appear to be at odds with the company’s public statements at the time.
In 2011 it warned that the carbon tax had the potential to send power plants in the Latrobe valley broke.

It is unclear what tax benefit, if any, International Power achieved through Project Salmon. Photograph: The Age/Fairfax Media via Getty Images

When details of the compensation were announced in March 2012, International Power issued a statement saying it was not enough.
The taxpayer assistance would only provide “some level of compensation for the impact of the introduction of a carbon tax”, but was “significantly less than the actual impact on its business”.
“Compensation through the Energy Security Fund is essential to ensure investors do not lose faith in the Australian energy market, and to ensure the secure operation of the National Electricity Market,” it said.
International Power first approached the Cayman Islands offices of an offshore law firm, Appleby, in April 2012, to seek help with part of Project Salmon. Their initial emails are among the 6.8m Appleby records exposed as part of the Paradise Papers.
“We are acting for International Power in connection with a proposed internal restructuring involving the companies in the chain of ownership relating to the Loy Yang B power station in Australia,” International Power’s lawyers told Appleby.
“The intention is for the proposed internal restructuring to be implemented shortly after the refinancing for the Loy Yang B power station is completion [sic] (targeted for mid-end June 2012).”
It is unclear what was done with the $1bn in dividend payments once they reached the top companies.
Not long after the dividend payments, the Australian subsidiaries came under some financial pressure. In late 2014 Loy Yang’s main Australian entity, Loy Yang Holdings Pty Ltd, reported it was at risk of breaching the conditions of its loans.
Engie denied that had anything to do with the $1bn dividends.
“The risk of breach of covenants on the project finance highlighted in the 2015 accounts of the Loy Yang B entities was due to low energy prices and the performance of the business after the 2012 refinancing,” the company said.
“This related to market factors outside of the control of Loy Yang B and coincided with the introduction of the carbon tax, which negatively impacted the business, despite compensation received from the government.”

The Loy Yang B power station in the Latrobe valley. Photograph: Paul Crock/AFP/Getty Images

It is unclear what tax benefit, if any, was achieved through Project Salmon.
Many of the dividend payments were made to a company first incorporated in the Netherlands, but managed from the UK.
Other parts of Loy Yang’s ownership structure were incorporated in the tax havens of the Cayman Islands, Cyprus and Guernsey.
Engie said all of the Loy Yang entities situated in “so-called tax haven countries” were managed in either the UK or Australia, meaning they were subject to the tax laws in both nations.
“As a matter of principle, Engie avoids investments in so-called tax haven countries and such investments can only be made if supported by strong economic reasons, other than tax savings,” it said.
The main entity in Australia, Loy Yang Holdings, paid no tax in 2014-15, despite recording $452m in revenue, according to the tax office’s corporate transparency report. The year before it paid $26.4m in tax on $760m total income.
The Guardian is not suggesting the company acted unlawfully or sought to avoid its tax obligations.
The Loy Yang dividends were paid through retained earnings, meaning they were made from profits that were already taxed in Australia.

This government can’t square the wheel on keeping its coal generators in business and meeting the Paris agreement.
Bruce Mountain, energy market analyst

The Project Salmon documents suggest the company’s chief concern in Australia was the imposition of dividend withholding tax. But it said the Australian Taxation Office had already made “favourable determinations” that such a withholding tax would not apply on the payments.
Engie is in the final stages of selling Loy Yang B. Three bidders – Delta Electricity, Alinta Energy, owned by Chow Tai Fook Enterprises, and China Resources Power Holdings – are thought to be left in the race.
Mountain said the failure of the compensation scheme served as a lesson for future policy.
He said the current government would be inclined to again offer compensation to polluters for climate policies. The experience of the past, he said, showed this was simply bad policy.
“This government can’t square the wheel on keeping its coal generators in business and meeting the Paris agreement,” Mountain said.
“If they ever do anything they’ll be inclined towards bailing out the coal generators to make them good. And I think to the extent to which you can say: ‘But we’ve already done that, and then some, when there was no good reason at all’ – I think it’s important. It’s important for the public policy debate and where it all ends up. So that, for me, is a critical lesson.”

Links

Paradise Papers: who's who in the leak of offshore secrets