A Year Of Climate Change In Photos

Bloomberg

From record-breaking wildfires, floods and hurricanes to innovations in energy, transport and agriculture, Bloomberg presents our climate photos of the year.

An elevated home stands in Pointe a La Hache, Louisiana, on Jan.19, 2017. The state's 7,700-mile shoreline is disappearing at the fastest rate in the U.S. Photographer: Derick E. Hingle/Bloomberg

Firefighters work to put out a wildfire at a forest in the town of San Ramon in Constitucion, Chile, on Jan. 26, 2017. Michelle Bachelet, Chile's president, called the fires the worst forestry disaster in the country's history. Photographer: Cristobal Olivares/Bloomberg

A family uses a Maya Pedal "Bicimaquina," a pedal-powered machine, to make a smoothie in San Andres, Iztapa, Guatemala on Feb. 16, 2017. Maya Pedal builds a range of "bicimaquinas" from bicycles donated from the U.S. and Canada. Bicimaquinas free the user from rising energy costs and produce no pollution. Photographer: Daniele Volpe/Bloomberg

A Golf automobile (left) and a Tiguan sports utility vehicle produced by Volkswagen AG are transported on elevation platforms as new VW automobiles sit in storage bays inside one of the automaker's glass delivery towers at the company's factory in Wolfsburg, Germany, on March 14, 2017. Volkswagen has contended with a diesel scandal since September 2015. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

Frozen cherry tree blossoms near the U.S. Capitol building in Washington on March 14, 2017.  Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

The first mile of the 800-mile Trans-Alaska Pipeline extends across the frozen tundra near the Alyeska Pipeline Services Co. pump station in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, on Feb. 16, 2017. Four decades after the Trans Alaska Pipeline System went live, transforming the North Slope into a modern-day Klondike, many Alaskans fear the best days have passed. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Gas flares near Mentone, Texas, on March 2, 2017. Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron Corp. are jumping into American shale with gusto, planned to spend a combined $10 billion this year, up from next to nothing only a few years ago. Photographer: Matthew Busch/Bloomberg

Vladimir Putin, Russia's president (right), Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's prime minister (center) and Sergei Donskoi, Russia's natural resources minister, visit an environmental clean-up operation on Alexandra Land Island in the Franz Josef Land archipelago, Russia, on March 29, 2017. Coastal shipping at the top of the world, first tested in the 19th century and made increasingly viable in summertime by global warming, is losing its international shine in an era of cheap oil. Photographer: Anna Andrianova/Bloomberg

A restaurant destroyed by massive floods in the district of Santa Eulalia, Huarochiri Province, in Peru's Lima Region on April 22, 2017. Finance Minister Alfredo Thorne said Peru's economy would bounce back from the worst flooding in two decades as the government created a $3 billion fund to finance rebuilding. Photographer: Guillermo Gutierrez/Bloomberg

Demonstrators gather near the Washington Monument during the People's Climate Movement March in Washington on April 29, 2017. Coinciding with U.S. President Donald Trump's 100th day in office, the People's Climate Movement March sought to bring attention to—and strengthen—climate reform efforts in the context of Trump administration changes in environmental policy. Photographer: Eric Thayer/Bloomberg

Vegetables grow on shelves under light-emitting diode (LED) lights inside a greenhouse at the high-tech, indoor Cofco Wisdom Farm operated by Cofco Corp. on the outskirts of Beijing on Feb. 20, 2017. China is turning to technology to make its land productive again. The silver bullet would be to eliminate emissions and industrial waste, an unrealistic option for a developing, $11 trillion economy. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

President Donald Trump exits following an announcement in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington on June 1, 2017. Trump said the U.S. would withdraw from the Paris climate pact and that he would seek to renegotiate the international agreement in a way that treats American workers better. Photographer: T.J. Kirkpatrick/Bloomberg

A charging plug connected to an electric vehicle at a charging station in Jeju, South Korea, on June 15, 2017. The election of Moon Jae-in, who supports policies favoring natural gas and renewables at the expense of nuclear and coal, as South Korea's new president implies a shift in the nation's approach to energy, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg

Cattle graze near wind turbines at Avangrid Inc.'s Baffin Wind Power Project in Sarita, Texas, on June 14, 2017. In the cutthroat Texas energy market, the construction of coastal wind turbines—some 900 in all—has had a profound impact. It's been terrific for consumers, helping to drive down electricity bills, but horrible for natural gas-fired generators. Photographer: Eddie Seal/Bloomberg

A bulldozer moves garbage in a landfill cell at the Melbourne Regional Landfill site operated by Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd. in Ravenhall, Victoria, Australia, on June 14, 2017. Cleanaway, the nation's largest garbage company, has the potential to extract enough gas from rotting rubbish to produce electricity for as many as 80,000 homes, according to Chief Executive Officer Vik Bansal. Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg

Hard, red winter wheat is harvested with a CNH Industrial NV combine harvester in Plainville, Kansas, on June 28, 2017. Spring wheat prices posted wide swings after reaching a four-year high as traders weighed prospects for an intensifying drought in the High Plains against signs that U.S. supplies aren't competitive in export markets. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Residents sit in the back of a truck with a dog while waiting to be rescued from rising floodwaters unleashed by Hurricane Harvey in Spring, Texas, on Aug. 28, 2017.  Photographer: Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg

Logs stacked at the yard of Wagner Forest Management Ltd., a company hired to manage Yale University's land in Errol, New Hampshire, on Aug. 10, 2017. For at least two decades, Yale has led a land rush by the richest colleges. Funds snapped up forests as a way to hedge against inflation and the risks inherent in stocks and bonds, as well as to take advantage of endowments' unusual ability to make investments that might not be easy to sell quickly. Photographer: Ian Thomas Jansen-Lonquist/Bloomberg

A worker walks past BYD Co. electric buses parked at a public transportation hub in Shenzhen, China, on Sept. 20, 2017. China, the world's biggest auto market, may have all its buses powered by batteries by 2020, with all other vehicles following suit by 2030, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu predicts. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

A child pushes a tire as a resident washes clothing in a bucket of water by a communal tap in the Imizamo Yethu township outside Cape Town on Nov. 13, 2017. Cape Town tightened water usage restrictions, banning the use of potable water to irrigate gardens, wash cars or top-up swimming pools as it confronted its worst drought on record. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg

Wrecked homes and vehicles rest in floodwaters in Hamacao, Puerto Rico, on Sept. 25, 2017, after Hurricane Maria devastated the island. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg

Powerpacks intended to be used to form the world's largest lithium-ion battery are on display during a Tesla Inc. event at the Hornsdale wind farm, operated by Neoen SAS, near Jamestown, South Australia, on Sept. 29, 2017. Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg 

A coal miner named Antonio Velasquez, 70, who is also a musician, stands in Cucunuba, Cundinamarca Department, Colombia, on July, 29, 2017. Colombia is set to produce a record of more than 90 million tons of the fossil fuel this year, its biggest export after oil. Colombia continues to bet on coal, even as global demand tapers off because the world is switching to cleaner fuels. Photographer: Nicolo Filippo Rosso/Bloomberg

Lithium ore mined in an open pit mine at a Talison Lithium Ltd. site, a joint venture between Tianqi Lithium Corp. and Albemarle Corp., in Greenbushes, Australia, on Aug. 3, 2017. Rising demand in China for lithium-ion batteries needed for electric vehicles and energy storage is driving significant price gains and an asset boom in Australia, already the world's largest lithium producer. Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg

Smoke from wildfires rises above the Rudd Winery vineyard in Napa, California, on Oct. 13, 2017. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

Photovoltaic solar panels at the Senergy Santhiou Mekhe PV solar plant in Thies, Senegal, on Oct. 16, 2017. Electricity produced at the 30-megawatt site, West Africa's largest, will be bought by the Senegal National Electricity Company (Senelec) for its national network. Photographer: Xaume Olleros/Bloomberg

Workers descend in an elevator at the Taymyrsky copper mine, operated by MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, in Norilsk, Russia, on Oct. 18, 2017. Norilsk Nickel, which mines the rich deposits of nickel, copper and palladium near Norilsk, has spent 2.5 billion rubles ($40 million) to lay fiber-optic cabling in the Siberian tundra. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

Scott Pruitt, administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency,  speaks during an interview in his office at EPA headquarters in Washington on Oct. 25, 2017. Pruitt vowed to get tough on corporate polluters, dismissing critics who portray him as being cozy with industry. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

A water tower in Cobalt, Ontario, on Oct. 12, 2017. Global demand for cobalt, a component in batteries used to power electric cars for automakers from Tesla Inc. to Volkswagen AG, is making the metal more important. Cobalt—the Canadian town—is attracting renewed attention as a buffer to rising political risks in the metal's primary source, the Democratic Republic of Congo. Photographer: Cole Burston/Bloomberg

A traffic controller directs vehicles through smog at the Packages Mall parking lot at night in Lahore, Pakistan, on Nov. 13, 2017. Some 1.5 billion inhabitants of both India and Pakistan are increasingly at risk from developing hazards such as air pollution, which is estimated to kill more than half a million Indians and Pakistanis annually; the World Bank has said environmental degradation costs India $80 billion each year. Photographer: Asad Zaidi/Bloomberg

A vendor leads a camel carrying two children along the beachfront in Mombasa, Kenya, on Nov. 23, 2017. Kenya's Treasury cut this year's growth target to 5 percent, from 5.9 percent, as protracted election furor discouraged investment, and a drought curbed farm output. Photographer: Luis Tato/Bloomberg

A firefighter hoses down the perimeter of a partially burned home during the Skirball Fire in the Bel Air enclave of Los Angeles on Dec. 6, 2017. Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg

A worker guides a donkey carrying bricks past a Sterlite Power Transmission Ltd. transmission tower in Rajouri district, Jammu and Kashmir, India, on Nov. 16, 2017. Along India's northern border, engineers and construction workers are electrifying one of the country's most violence-prone states. Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg

FirstEnergy Corp.'s Bruce Mansfield coal-fired power plant rises behind cemetery headstones at the Bethlehem Presbyterian Church in Shippingport, Pennsylvania, on Dec. 6, 2017. Across the U.S., few places are as dominated by big, centralized power plants as Shippingport. It was here, in the 1950s, that the federal government teamed up with private industry to build the country's first nuclear power plant. Photographer: Justin Merriman/Bloomberg

Links

• Climate Change Captured in Stunning Antarctic Ice Photos
• National Geographic: Climate Change Photographs
• How To Tell The Story Of Climate Change, In Photos

Climate Review: Turnbull Government Will Allow Companies To Purchase Foreign Carbon Credits

Fairfax -Michael Koziol

The Turnbull government will reverse course and allow businesses to buy overseas carbon credits to meet Australia's emissions reduction targets, a policy long questioned by climate experts and once labelled "dodgy" by Tony Abbott.
Backed by industry and some climate change observers, the move allows big businesses to purchase emissions reductions in other countries - most likely at lower prices - to offset their own carbon production.


Climate summit seeks new direction
More than 200 institutional investors with $26 trillion in assets under management said they would step up pressure on the world's biggest corporate greenhouse gas emitters to combat climate change.

Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg on Tuesday gave "in-principle" support to joining 60 other nations - including Canada, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea - in an international trading market once rules are finalised after 2020.
"Our thinking is to find the lowest-cost abatement," Mr Frydenberg said on Tuesday. "When it comes to helping the environment, it doesn't matter if you've reduced a tonne of CO2 here in Australia or in another country."

"Our thinking is to find the lowest-cost abatement": Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

That differed from the view given by Mr Abbott in 2011, while opposition leader, that overseas permits involved money "going offshore into dodgy carbon farms in Equatorial Guinea and Kazakhstan".
Mr Abbott's views were backed by the Greens on Tuesday, whose climate spokesman Adam Bandt accused the government of "outsourcing" climate policy by allowing firms to buy "dodgy permits from pig farms in China".
Many climate change campaigners have expressed concern about Australia shirking its domestic obligations in favour of cheaper overseas permits that might be fraudulent or involve double-counting of reductions.
And in a report last week, the independent Climate Change Authority recommended against Australian companies using international credits to meet domestic obligations, arguing it would slow down our transition to a lower-carbon economy. It cited a submission from energy giant AGL stating such a scheme would "effectively defer Australia's own decarbonisation".
Kate Mackenzie, a director at the non-profit Climate KIC and research fellow at the Centre for Policy Development, said buying foreign credits was a good idea but should not substitute reducing electricity emissions.
"If it's seen as being an easier or a cheaper way of meeting our emissions reduction targets, that poses the risk that the really necessary policy work won't be done," she told Fairfax Media.
The government will also wait until the market rules of the Paris Agreement are finalised to decide whether other countries can purchase Australia's mostly land-based carbon credits, fearing it could drive up the cost of domestic abatement. There is no guarantee international negotiations will finish by 2020, however, with talks mired in disagreement about how to link various schemes.
International permits will become particularly important for 140 large Australian businesses with facilities that emit more than 100,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. Under the "safeguard mechanism", these operations will need to keep their emissions below baseline levels or offset them using domestic and, now, international credits.
As part of the climate review released Tuesday, the government flagged those baselines could "increase with production, supporting business growth", and allowing companies to pollute more as long as they produce more.
Tony Wood, energy program director at the Grattan Institute, said the decision to allow international credits "makes an enormous amount of sense" as a way to put a "safety valve" on the price of carbon abatement, at least temporarily. At present, international permits are significantly cheaper than the cost of abatement domestically under the Emissions Reduction Fund, although overseas credits will likely become more expensive as global demand rises.
Tuesday's announcement was foreshadowed after the 2015 Paris climate conference, when then environment minister Greg Hunt said international permits would "probably be allowed. Mr Frydenberg, who took over the role after last year's election, strongly suggested the change would be made when he commissioned the climate change review a year ago.
Labor's environment spokesman Mark Butler dismissed the review as containing "no significant change" to Mr Abbott's climate change policies.
Industry groups including the Business Council of Australia welcomed the change-of-heart as a "practical" measure giving businesses flexibility. Peter Castellas, head of the Carbon Market Institute, said it was an "encouraging signal" but there would need to be more input from industry on the detail.

Links

• Turnbull Government reveals results of climate review
• Turnbull's big climate fail, and no positive change in policy
• Australia's greenhouse gas emissions increase for third consecutive year
• Coalition climate review 'a travesty' as Australia set to increase emissions
• No policy change needed: climate review
• 2017 Review of Climate Change Policies (pdf)
• Australia’s emissions projections 2017 (pdf)
• Australia’s emissions projections 2016 (pdf)

At A Glance: Australia's Climate Change Policy Review

Fairfax - Tara Hayes

The Turnbull government's review of climate change policies has confirmed Australia is on track to reduce emissions by 5 per cent below 2000 levels as part of the Paris agreement, but faces a tough task reaching its goal of a 26-28 per cent reduction by 2030.
The review, released on Tuesday, outlines Australia's international and national efforts to address climate change, including contributions to several major projects and initiatives, research and collaboration with global partners and the integration of climate change action through overseas aid.


Climate summit seeks new direction
More than 200 institutional investors with $26 trillion in assets under management said they would step up pressure on the world's biggest corporate greenhouse gas emitters to combat climate change.

But the review also acknowledged policy improvements are needed to keep up with technological changes, and the rest of the world.
Six expected policy changes are:

• 1) Introduce a 'review and refine' cycle 

Australia must update emission reduction targets every five years under the Paris Agreement. A 'review and refine' cycle will be introduced, allowing policy and goals to be considered and renewed as each yearly update is complete.

• 2) Examine electricity generation

Consultation with stakeholders over the so-called National Energy Guarantee will begin early in 2018, with the COAG energy council using feedback to consider the best design and implementation methods to reach emission reductions. The scheme requires energy retailers and big polluters to commit to a reliability guarantee, which is expected to commence from 2019, and an emissions guarantee, which is due in 2020.

• 3) Change the Safeguard Mechanism

The Safeguard Mechanism allows the biggest business polluters to measure, report and manage their emissions, with the Clean Energy Regular setting the baseline often off historical data.The government will move to keep baselines up to date and reflective of "individual business circumstances" with changes due to take effect for the 2018-19 financial year.

• 4) Trade international units 

The government will allow companies to offset their carbon emissions by buying international permits subject to a global system being finalised after 2020. Former prime minister Tony Abbott has been a strong critic of such a policy in the past.

• 5) Review the transport sector 

Measures to support a low-carbon transport sector have been considered, including a potential fuel efficiency standard for cars. This could save motorists $237 to $519 per year in 2025 for fuel, and net benefits to the economy could range from $8 billion to $13.9 billion over 20 years.

• 6) Plan a long-term climate change strategy
  

The government will consult the public and experts to develop long-term goals for emission reduction to be completed by 2020.The Grattan Institute's energy expert Tony Wood said this was the "most noteworthy" part of the review.

Links

• Turnbull Government reveals results of climate review
• Turnbull's big climate fail, and no positive change in policy
• Australia's greenhouse gas emissions increase for third consecutive year
• Coalition climate review 'a travesty' as Australia set to increase emissions

Climate Change Will Displace Millions In Coming Decades. Nations Should Prepare Now To Help Them

The Conversation - Gulrez Shah Azhar

Pakistani commuters travel on a flooded street following a heavy rainfall in Karachi, Aug. 31, 2017. AP Photo/Shakil Adil

Wildfires tearing across Southern California have forced thousands of residents to evacuate from their homes. Even more people fled ahead of the hurricanes that slammed into Texas and Florida earlier this year, jamming highways and filling hotels. A viral social media post showed a flight-radar picture of people trying to escape Florida and posed a provocative question: What if the adjoining states were countries and didn’t grant escaping migrants refuge?
By the middle of this century, experts estimate that climate change is likely to displace between 150 and 300 million people. If this group formed a country, it would be the fourth-largest in the world, with a population nearly as large as that of the United States.
Yet neither individual countries nor the global community are completely prepared to support a whole new class of “climate migrants.” As a physician and public health researcher in India, I learned the value of surveillance and early warning systems for managing infectious disease outbreaks. Based on my current research on health impacts of heat waves in developing countries, I believe much needs to be done at the national, regional and global level to deal with climate migrants.


The U.S. government is spending US$48 million to relocate residents of Isle de Jean Charles, Louisiana, because their land is sinking.

Millions displaced yearly
Climate migration is already happening. Every year desertification in Mexico’s drylands forces 700,000 people to relocate. Cyclones have displaced thousands from Tuvalu in the South Pacific and Puerto Rico in the Caribbean. Experts agree that a prolonged drought may have catalyzed Syria’s civil war and resulting migration.
Between 2008 and 2015, an average of 26.4 million people per year were displaced by climate- or weather-related disasters, according to the United Nations. And the science of climate change indicates that these trends are likely to get worse. With each one-degree increase in temperature, the air’s moisture-carrying capacity increases by 7 percent, fueling increasingly severe storms. Sea levels may rise by as much as three feet by the year 2100, submerging coastal areas and inhabited islands.
The Pacific islands are extremely vulnerable, as are more than 410 U.S. cities and others around the globe, including Amsterdam, Hamburg, Lisbon and Mumbai. Rising temperatures could make parts of west Asia inhospitable to human life. On the same day that Hurricane Irma roared over Florida in September, heavy rains on the other side of the world submerged one-third of Bangladesh and eastern parts of India, killing thousands.
Climate change will affect most everyone on the planet to some degree, but poor people in developing nations will be affected most severely. Extreme weather events and tropical diseases wreak the heaviest damage in these regions. Undernourished people who have few resources and inadequate housing are especially at risk and likely to be displaced.

People displaced by drought in Somalia queue to register at a refugee camp in neighboring Ethiopia, July 26, 2011. UK-DFID, CC BY

Recognize and plan for climate migrants now
Today the global community has not universally acknowledged the existence of climate migrants, much less agreed on how to define them. According to international refugee law, climate migrants are not legally considered refugees. Therefore, they have none of the protections officially accorded to refugees, who are technically defined as people fleeing persecution. No global agreements exist to help millions of people who are displaced by natural disasters every year.
Refugees’ rights, and nations’ legal obligation to defend them, were first defined under the 1951 Refugee Convention, which was expanded in 1967. This work took place well before it was apparent that climate change would become a major force driving migrations and creating refugee crises.
Under the convention, a refugee is defined as someone “unable or unwilling to return to their country of origin owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion.” The convention legally binds nations to provide access to courts, identity papers and travel documents, and to offer possible naturalization. It also bars discriminating against refugees, penalizing them, expelling them or forcibly returning them to their countries of origin. Refugees are entitled to practice their religions, attain education and access public assistance.
In my view, governments and organizations such as the United Nations should consider modifying international law to provide legal status to environmental refugees and establish protections and rights for them. Reforms could factor in the concept of “climate justice,” the notion that climate change is an ethical and social concern. After all, richer countries have contributed the most to cause warming, while poor countries will bear the most disastrous consequences.

The low-lying Pacific island nation of Kiribati is extremely vulnerable to climate-driven sea level rise and storm surges. DFAT, CC BY

Some observers have suggested that countries that bear major responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions should take in more refugees. Alternatively, the world’s largest carbon polluters could contribute to a fund that would pay for refugee care and resettlement for those temporarily and permanently displaced.
The Paris climate agreement does not mention climate refugees. However, there have been some consultations and initiatives by various organizations and governments. They include efforts to create a climate change displacement coordination facility and a U.N. Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and Climate Change.
It is tough to define a climate refugee or migrant. This could be one of the biggest challenges in developing policies.
As history has shown, destination countries respond to waves of migration in various ways, ranging from welcoming immigrants to placing them in detention camps or denying them assistance. Some countries may be selective in whom they allow in, favoring only the young and productive while leaving children, the elderly and infirm behind. A guiding global policy could help prevent confusion and outline some minimum standards.

Short-term actions
Negotiating international agreements on these issues could take many years. For now, major G20 powers such as the United States, the European Union, China, Russia, India, Canada, Australia and Brazil should consider intermediate steps. The United States could offer temporary protected status to climate migrants who are already on its soil. Government aid programs and nongovernment organizations should ramp up support to refugee relief organizations and ensure that aid reaches refugees from climate disasters.
In addition, all countries that have not signed the United Nations refugee conventions could consider joining them. This includes many developing countries in South Asia and the Middle East that are highly vulnerable to climate change and that already have large refugee populations. Since most of the affected people in these countries will likely move to neighboring nations, it is crucial that all countries in these regions abide by a common set of policies for handling and assisting refugees.
The scale of this challenge is unlike anything humanity has ever faced. By midcentury, climate change is likely to uproot far more people than World War II, which displaced some 60 million across Europe, or the Partition of India, which affected approximately 15 million. The migration crisis that has gripped Europe since 2015 has involved something over one million refugees and migrants. It is daunting to envision much larger flows of people, but that is why the global community should start doing so now.

Links

• Why the numbers don’t add up: A review of estimates and predictions of people displaced by environmental changes
• Change the future of migration. Invest in food security and rural development.
• To prevent the next global crisis, don’t forget today’s small disasters
• Many small island nations can adapt to climate change with global support
• Hurricanes drive immigration to the US
• A record 65.3 million people were displaced last year: What does that number actually mean?

Australia's Greenhouse Emissions Rise 5pc In Two Years

AFR - Ben Potter

Australia's greenhouse gas emissions have increased 5 per cent in the past two years, leaving a huge task for the proposed National Energy Guarantee. Paul Rovere PTR

Australia's greenhouse gas emissions have increased 5 per cent in the past two years, leaving a huge task for the proposed National Energy Guarantee to meet Paris climate commitments.
National greenhouse emissions were 554 million tonnes of carbon dioxide this year, up from 527 million tonnes in 2015, the last year for which the government reported.
The latest projections show emissions steady at 551 million tonnes in 2020, and rising 3.5 per cent over the following decade to 570 million tonnes in 2030, if new policies such as the National Energy Guarantee and tough vehicle emissions standards are not vigorously implemented.
The worst offenders are the farming sector, where emissions are projected to jump 14 per cent to 82 million tonnes between now and 2030 thanks to rising stock numbers, and transport, projected to be up 11 per cent to 112 million tonnes as the population and economy grow.

National greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise without new policies such as the national Energy Guarantee. Australia's emissions projections 2017

The cumulative emissions reduction task for the decade to 2030 has been reduced by about 120 million tonnes but still weighs in at a challenging 866 million tonnes to 934 million tonnes to meet the 26-28 per cent reduction on 2005 levels that the Turnbull government agreed at Paris.

Right trend
Despite the mixed progress to date, environment and energy minister Josh Frydenberg said the trend was in the right direction, with Australia on track to over achieve its 2020 emissions target of a 5 per cent reduction from 2000 levels by 294 million tonnes.
Mr Frydenberg said Australia continues to close the gap on the 2030 target, and a long-awaited Review of Climate Change Policies, also released on Tuesday, found that Australia had comprehensive policies for each significant sector of the economy.
He highlighted the Emissions Reduction Fund which has secured more than 191 million tonnes of abatement mostly in agriculture and land use, continuing work at the Ministerial Forum on Vehicle Emissions and the National Energy Productivity Plan which aims to boost energy efficiency by 40 per cent.

Huge task for the NEG: ESB chair Kerrie Schott, environment and energy minister Josh Frydenberg and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull at the release of the government's new energy policy. AAP

In the electricity sector, where emissions have edged up to 190 million tonnes in the two years since the Abbott government repealed Labor's carbon tax, the government is counting on the National Energy Guarantee, which is still being designed and is yet to win the approval of several states who must agree before it can be implemented.

Electricity emissions flatline
Underlining the scale of the challenge in electricity, the sector's emissions are only projected to fall slightly, to 175 million tonnes in 2020 and 173 million tonnes in 2030, without new policies such as the energy guarantee and further progress in reducing Australia's energy use per capita and unit of GDP.
Electricity demand has been weak thanks to the closure of some large manufacturing and heavy industry, such as car assembly and aluminium smelters.

Agriculture and transport are the worst offenders, thanks to growing herd numbers and population and economic growth. Australia's emissions projections 2017

Emissions are also been held in check by the growth of wind and solar energy, the cost of which is falling faster than forecasters can track, at the expense of coal power; the closure of the heavily polluting Hazelwood brown coal plant in Victoria at the end of March saw electricity sector emissions fall 1.6 per cent in the June quarter.
But the policy responsible for a lot of the growth in wind and solar energy - the Renewable Energy Target - peaks in 2020 meaning there will be less incentive for new wind and solar projects beyond 2020.
Emissions from direct combustion by industry are also projected to increase slightly, from 97 million tonnes to 105 million tonnes in 2020 and 103 million tonnes in 2030, while emissions from industrial processes are projected to fall 6 per cent to 32 million tonnes from 2020 to 2030.
The review confirms that the government has decided "in principle" to allow polluting companies to buy foreign carbon credits after 2020 to manage their liabilities under a proposed emissions guarantee.

Trend is right: Minister for Environment and Energy Josh Frydenberg at Parliament House in Canberra on Friday 8 December 2017. fedpol Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

The national has made some progress but has a long way to go to meet its 2030 Paris climate commitments Australia's emissions projections 2017

Links

• Australia's greenhouse gas emissions increase for third consecutive year
• No policy change needed: climate review
• 2017 Review of Climate Change Policies (pdf)
• Australia’s emissions projections 2017 (pdf)
• Australia’s emissions projections 2016 (pdf)

Trump Officially Removes Climate Change From List Of Global Threats

The Independent - Alexandra Wilts

'America is in the game, and America is going to win'

President Donald Trump speaks on national security, Monday, Dec. 18, 2017, in Washington AP

In another departure from his predecessor Barack Obama, President Donald Trump has removed climate change as a global threat in his new national security strategy – a plan that prioritises economic and military might and paints China and Russia as competitors that want to shape global events to match their interests.
Echoing his 2016 presidential campaign message, the President declared in a speech introducing his strategy: “America is in the game, and America is going to win.”
The remarks at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington were largely another reiteration of his “America First” doctrine, which emphasises national sovereignty and the economic implications of global participation. Officials have said the core principles of the strategy have already been put into practice.

While discussing his strategy, Mr Trump seemed to envision nations in constant competition and brushed aside Obama-era warnings on climate change. The President also stressed that the US would defend its sovereignty at all costs, even if that meant ripping up existing agreements. 

The strategy focuses on four main themes: protecting the homeland, promoting American prosperity, demonstrating peace through strength and advancing American influence in an ever-competitive world. 

Along with listing off the threat of rogue regimes like North Korea, Mr Trump said, “We also face rival powers, Russia and China, that seek to challenge American influence, values, and wealth.” 

“We will attempt to build a great partnership with those and other countries, but in a manner that always protects our national interest,” he added. 

He then noted how Russian President Vladimir Putin had called him the previous day to thank America for intelligence the CIA had provided regarding a planned terror attack in St Petersburg. 

“Many people, perhaps in the thousands, could have been killed,” Mr Trump said. “They were able to apprehend these terrorists before the event, with no loss of life. And that’s a great thing, and the way it’s supposed to work. That is the way it’s supposed to work.”

He continued: “But while we seek such opportunities of cooperation, we will stand up for ourselves, and we will stand up for our country like we have never stood up before.” 

Both China and Russia have sought to “change the status quo”, according to Trump administration officials, in a manner the US opposes and could challenge American interests. As examples, an official cited Chinese military expansion and island-building in the South China Sea and Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.

Mr Trump also made the decision to exclude climate change from a list of global threats in his strategy. The Obama administration had first included the phenomenon, said to be a major cause of the recent massive wildfires in California, in its own national strategy in 2015. 

The strategy sets a goal of being an “energy-dominant nation” but does say the US “recognises the importance of environmental stewardship”. 

In his speech, the closest Mr Trump came to mentioning the topic of climate change was in his reference to his decision to pull out of the landmark Paris climate accord, which was aimed at fighting global warming. 

The move was criticised by world leaders, but the US President maintains that the agreement is “very expensive and unfair” for the US. Opponents of Mr Trump’s decision have said the President is forsaking America’s role as a global leader by withdrawing from the deal. 

But Mr Trump on Monday faulted previous US leaders for failing to look out for the nation’s citizens.

Mr Trump stressed his “serious plan to defend our homeland”, again calling for the construction of a border wall with Mexico and pledging to end “chain migration” of immigrants’ relatives and to close “loopholes that undermine enforcement” of immigration restrictions. 

He also said that for the first time, American strategy recognises that economic security is national security. This calls for cutting taxes and rolling back unnecessary regulations, he said.

Links

• Trump’s decision to ignore climate change’s threat endangers everyone
• Trump drops climate change from national security strategy
• Under Trump, climate change not a national security threat
• Ignoring Public Opinion and Pentagon, Trump Denies Climate Change Is Threat to National Security
• Trump's national security plan scraps climate change, confirms US will defend sovereignty at all costs

Climate Scientists And Policymakers Need To Trust Each Other (But Not Too Much)

The Conversation - Rebecca Colvin | Christopher Cvitanovic | Justine Lacey | Mark Howden

Trust is everything. oneinchpunch/Shutterstock.com

At a time when the effects of climate change are accelerating and published science overwhelmingly supports the view that humans are responsible for the rate of change, powerful groups remain in denial across politics, the media, and industry.
Now more than ever, we need scientists and policymakers to work together to create and implement effective policy which is informed by the most recent and reliable evidence.
We know that trust between scientists and policymakers is important in developing policy that is informed by scientific evidence. But how do you build this trust, and how do you make sure that it genuinely leads to positive outcomes for society?
In response to these questions, our recent Perspective in Nature Climate Change explores the dynamics of trust at the interface of climate science and policy.
We suggest that while trust is an important component of the science-policy dynamic, there can be such a thing as “too much” trust between scientists and policymakers.
Understanding this dynamic is crucial if we are to deliver positive outcomes for science, policy, and the society that depends on their cooperation.

What happens when there is ‘too much’ trust?
Trust between climate scientists (researchers in a range of disciplines, institutions, and organisational settings) and policymakers (civil servants in government departments or agencies who shape climate policy) is useful because it enhances the flow of information between them. In a trusting relationship, we can expect to see a scientist explaining a new finding directly to a policymaker, or a policymaker describing future information needs to a scientist.
Together, this arrangement ideally gives us science-led policy, and policy-relevant science.
But as scholars of trust have warned, there is a point beyond which these positive benefits of trust can turn sour.
Think about a hypothetical situation in which a scientist and policy-maker come to trust each other deeply. What happens if one of them starts to become loose with the facts, or fails to adhere to professional standards? Is their trusting counterpart more, or less, likely to identify the poor behaviour and respond appropriately?
Over time, a trusting relationship may evolve into a self-perpetuating belief of trustworthiness based on the history of the relationship. This is where scientists and policymakers may find themselves in a situation of “too much” trust.
We know that science advances by consensus, and that this consensus is shaped by rigorous research and review, and intense debate and scrutiny. But what if (as in the hypothetical example described above) a policy-maker’s trust in an individual scientist means they bypass the consensus and instead depend on that one scientist for new information? What happens if that scientist is – intentionally or unintentionally – wrong?

More trust is not always best. ‘Too much’ trust can cause perverse outcomes at the science-policy interface. Adapted from Stevens et al. (2015)

When you have “too much” trust, the benefits of trust can instead manifest as perverse outcomes, such as “blind faith” commitments between parties. In a situation like this, a policymaker may trust an individual scientist so much that they do not look for signs of misconduct, such as the misrepresentation of findings.
Favouritism and “capture” may mean that some policymakers provide information about future research support only to selected scientists, denying these opportunities to others. At the same time, scientists may promote only their own stream of research instead of outlining the range of perspectives in the field to the policymakers, narrowing the scope of what science enters the policy area.
“Cognitive lock-in” might result, where a policymaker sticks to a failing policy because they feel committed to the scientist who first recommended the course of action. For example, state-of-the-art climate forecasting tools are available in the Pacific but are reportedly underused. This is partly because the legacy of trusting relationships between scientists and policymakers in the region has led them to continue relying on less sophisticated tools.
“Too much” trust can also lead to overly burdensome obligations between scientists and policymakers. A scientist may come to hold unrealistically high expectations of the level of information a policymaker can share, or a policymaker may desire the production of research by an unfeasible deadline.

What’s the right way to trust?
With this awareness of the potentially negative outcomes of “too much” trust, should we abandon trust at the climate science-policy interface all together?
No. But we can – and should – develop, monitor, and manage trust with acknowledgement of how “too much” trust may lead to perverse outcomes for both scientists and policy-makers.
We should aim for a state of “optimal trust”, which enjoys the benefits of a trusting relationship while avoiding the pitfalls of taking too trusting an approach.
We propose five key strategies for managing trust at the climate science-policy interface.

• Be explicit about expectations for trust in a climate science-policy relationship. Climate scientists and policy-makers should clarify protocols and expectations about behaviour through open discussion as early as possible within the relationship.
• Transparency and accountability, especially when things go wrong, are critical to achieving and maintaining a state of optimal trust. When things do go wrong, trust repair can right the relationship.
• Implement systems for monitoring trust, such as discussion groups within scientific and policy organisations and processes of peer review. Such approaches can help to identify the effects of “too much” trust – such as capture, cognitive lock-in, or unrealistically high expectations.
• Manage staff churn in policy and scientific organisations. When scientists or policy-makers change role or institution, handing over the trusting relationships can help positive legacies and practices to carry on.
• Use intermediaries such as knowledge brokers to facilitate the flow of information between science and policy. Such specialists can promote fairness and honesty at the science-policy interface, increasing the probability of maintaining ‘optimal trust’.

Embracing strategies such as these would be a positive step toward managing trust between scientists and policymakers, both in climate policy and beyond.
In this time of contested science and highly politicised policy agendas, all of us in science and policy have a responsibility to ensure we act ethically and appropriately to achieve positive outcomes for society.

Links

• Nature v technology: climate ‘belief’ is politics, not science
• Is this the moment that climate politics and public opinion finally match up?
• After Bonn, 5 things to watch for in the coming year of global climate policy
• Why remote Antarctica is so important in a warming world
• Why meeting the Paris climate goals is an existential threat to fossil fuel industries
• How citizens are fighting climate change on the global stage