Threatened Blue Carbon Ecosystems Store Carbon 40 Times Faster Than Forests

ABC Science - Joanna Khan

Mangroves accumulate carbon in their soils and can store it for thousands of years. (Pixabay)

Capturing carbon Coastal plants capture CO2 through photosynthesis and land-based carbon sources Carbon can be stored in the soil of blue carbon habitats for thousands of years When these habitats are damaged or destroyed the carbon can be released as CO2 back into the atmosphere

They can stink like fish and rotten eggs, breed swarms of mosquitos and lack the glamour of coral reefs. But mangroves, with other coastal habitats, are vitally important to our climate — and they're under threat.
In just the past decade, scientists have discovered that some of our underappreciated coastal habitats — called "blue carbon ecosystems" — play a huge role in tackling CO2 emissions.
But human activities such as burning fossil fuels and coastal development have already caused half of them to disappear.

"They're like the armpits of our coastline, but they are really important," said Deakin University marine ecologist Peter Macreadie.

What is blue carbon?

Blue carbon coastal ecosystems — such as mangroves, seagrass meadows and tidal wetlands — are named for their place at the boundary between land and sea, and their unmatched ability to suck CO2 out of the atmosphere and store it in the ground below.

This process is called carbon sequestration.
It was intense carbon sequestration by ancient forests and algae millions of years ago that helped create the very deposits of coal and oil we tap into for fossil fuels today.
Nearby on the ecology colour palette are the better-known green carbon systems of trees and forests. While important, they aren't nearly as efficient at storing carbon as their blue counterparts.
"We know that forests are pretty good at [carbon sequestration], but their carbon stores are bound to the lifetime of the trees, for only 100 or so years, and then it is released back into the atmosphere," Dr Macreadie said.
As well as being a temporary carbon store, trees can only soak up so much carbon before they become "saturated".

The oxygen-poor soil of seagrass meadows prevents microbes from decomposing the stored carbon and producing CO2. (Supplied: Michael Rule)

Blue carbon ecosystems, on the other hand, can store more carbon for longer — thousands of years — and at a far quicker rate.

"These blue carbon ecosystems store carbon around 40 times faster than green carbon ecosystems," Dr Macreadie said.

"So you need a lot more green carbon habitat to do the same amount of carbon offsetting."

Conservation gets weird
Some ecologists are worried that these ecosystems don't receive the attention they deserve and are now being lost faster than we can conserve them.
Dr Macreadie estimated that about half of the world's blue carbon ecosystems have already disappeared, thanks to human activities.
Seagrass meadows have shrunk at a rate of 1 per cent every year since the start of the 20th century.
In 2016 there was extensive die-back of mangroves in the Gulf of Carpentaria, but it coincided with the mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, which received more attention.
To spur people into action to protect these "ugly duckling" habitats, Dr Macreadie and his team are getting creative with tea bags.
Around the world, citizen scientists have been burying tea bags in the soil of blue carbon ecosystems to find out how well the area stores carbon.

Blue carbon researchers have had to come up with unexpected ways to entice citizen scientists to their cause. (Deakin University: Donna Squire)

The tea leaves inside your everyday tea bag are carbon-based, which makes them a handy addition to the team's experimental toolkit.
If, after a few months of being buried in mud, the tea leaves are still there, then that might be a good spot for locking away carbon.
But if you dig the tea bags back up and the tea leaves have gone, it means the carbon has decomposed — indicating that area's not capable of carbon storage.
The project is uncovering how carbon storage ability varies even within blue carbon ecosystems.

Ticking carbon bombs: sinks become sources
Coastal development is the major danger to blue carbon habitats, and is now raising the issue that stored carbon will be emitted as CO2 back into the atmosphere.
"The really big threat is that the damaged ecosystems will release their ancient carbon stores," Dr Macreadie said.

"That's where you get the really big numbers."

An international team this week reported that a marine heatwave off Western Australia in 2010-11 that damaged seagrass meadows may have released of millions of tonnes of ancient carbon stores back into the atmosphere as CO2.
Oscar Serrano, a marine ecologist at Edith Cowan University involved in the research, said that the Shark Bay seagrass meadows accumulated around 144 million tonnes of carbon over the past 4,000 years.

Wading knee-deep in mud may not be glamorous, but scientists have now discovered how important habitats like mangroves are for mitigating climate change. (Deakin University: Simon Fox)

"We estimated that around 1,000 square kilometres of seagrass was lost due to the heatwave, which could have released between 2 and 9 million tonnes of CO2," Dr Serrano said.
It's a climate change double-whammy; losing carbon sequestration habitat while adding to our CO2 emissions at the same time.
However, scientists acknowledge that measuring CO2 emissions from blue carbon habitat loss is very challenging.
"We have to base our estimates on a number of assumptions, and the main uncertainty is the fate of the carbon stored in the system," Dr Serrano said.
"It's very hard to study mainly because of the time it takes for stored carbon to be converted back to CO2, and because it's such a complex system."
Dr Macreadie has been studying blue carbon ecosystems since the term was first coined around 9 years ago.
The field has grown exponentially since, but there's plenty more to discover about our coastal armpits, the benefits they provide and how to make sure they keep squirrelling away CO2.
"If we're going to keep burning fossil fuels, we need to find ways to pay for our carbon sins," he said.
"We need people to recognise the importance of these ecosystems and the weird things they do for us, and how they can form a sort of green infrastructure along our coasts."

Links

• Mangroves Protect Coastlines, Store Carbon – And Are Expanding With Climate Change
• 'They Died Of Thirst': Extreme Conditions Wipe Out Forest Over 1000 Kilometres
• 'Shocking images' reveal death of 10,000 hectares of mangroves across Northern Australia
• Can we manage coastal ecosystems to sequester more blue carbon?
• Shark Bay seagrass loss during ocean heatwave released up to 9m tonnes of CO2, scientists say

New Interactive Climate Change Map Shows Global Similarities

Interesting Engineering - Shelby Rogers

Tehran and Salt Lake City aren't that different when one looks at their climate change impact, according to scientists.

ClimateEx Interactive | University of Cincinatti

A new interactive map shows how the world is more connected than ever before -- specifically with regard to climate change. The ClimateEx map project from researchers with the University of Cincinnati not only tells users about an area's climate history; it can pair up a city with its "climate twin" across the globe.
In order to create the map, geography professor Tomasz Stepinski and his team had to gather over 50 years worth of meteorological data across 50,000 international weather databases throughout the world.
"The map demonstrates climate change over time but also climate diversity. The concept is powerful and can inspire a lot of research," Stepinski said.
Stepinski is a massive fan of statistics. Another famous project of his involved a highly-detailed map of racial diversity found in every neighborhood in the United States. However, he's long been a fan of climate research and wanted to combine his two passions. Originally from Poland, Stepinski spent a large part of his career looking for how statistics could best be represented visually.
"I've lived in Houston, Tucson and Cincinnati. Climatically speaking, they couldn't be farther apart," he said.
Stepinski teamed up with fellow Polish researcher Pawel Netzel and developed this visual way for climatologists and other scientists to study patterns and compare climates over time in nearly any location around the world.

ClimateEx Interactive | University of Cincinatti

ClimateEx also details which parts of the globe have been most affected by global warming and other climate issues. While the poles and surrounding areas show distinct changes, the tropics do as well. Stepinski noted that it's due to monthly rainfall.
"When people think about climate change, they think about temperature: global warming," he said. "But climate has many components, including precipitation. People often consider temperature and precipitation separately. But our mathematical model includes both."

ClimateEx Interactive | University of Cincinatti

Netzel said even beyond using it for climate research, the map is a fun tool for anyone looking for their ideal climates elsewhere in the world.

"Using ClimateEx, it is easy to get answers to questions such as where in the world do we have a climate similar to Houston's? Where can I find a place with a climate as pleasant as Florida's?"

"ClimateEx is mostly an educational tool," Netzel said. "Using ClimateEx, it is easy to get answers to questions such as where in the world do we have a climate similar to Houston's? Where can I find a place with a climate as pleasant as Florida's?"
This also gives users a tool in finding places that could be more greatly affected by larger weather events like hurricanes, monsoons, flooding, severe storms, snow, or droughts given the area's history and trajectory.
"ClimateEx enables an easy search for locations where climate change may lead to the occurrence of such extreme phenomena in the future," he said. "The user simply indicates the location where tornadoes are presently frequent and ClimateEx finds all locations where in 50 years the climate will be conducive to tornadoes."
Netzel also qualified what type of use the ClimateEx map would be perfect for.
"It can support strategic, long-term planning and decision-making on the future development of urbanized space," he said. "It helps to prepare for emerging threats such as increasing the frequency or appearance of extreme weather phenomena. Knowledge about the possibility of hazards will give city planners time to prepare appropriate response plans."
In a statement, Stepinski was direct about his feelings for those who don't worry about climate change and write off global warming as just a 'phase.'
"If you were looking at climate change at a scale of a million years, you wouldn't worry too much," Stepinski said. "But if you see dramatic changes on the order of a few decades, it's a big problem. Personally I'm not happy there are people who seem to disregard this as not much of a problem. It is a problem."
And as for Cincinnati's climate twin? Stepinski said it's Vicenza, Italy -- not a bad place to be if the team ever wanted a vacation.
"You will see that both Cincinnati's and Vicenza's climates have a similar progression of weather conditions throughout the year," he said. "So a person would experience the passing of the seasons in the same way in both places."

Links

• ClimateEx Interactive
• World's future climate change hotspots mapped
• New Interactive Map Shows Climate Change Everywhere In World
• Our changing climate
• Where climate change will hit NZ hardest revealed in new interactive map

Losing Nemo? Wider Effects Of Mass Great Barrier Reef Bleaching Emerge

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Bleaching in the world's reefs over the past couple of years is immediately evident from the stark images of corals shedding their myriad colours for a ghostly white.
While as much as half the corals of the Great Barrier Reef died during the marine heatwaves of 2016 and 2017, researchers are only now beginning to assess the toll on the many species that rely on corals for food and shelter.

Researchers at Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef are studying the impacts of coral bleaching on fish and anemones that depend on them. Photo: University of Wollongong 

"A lot of the attention is on the corals," Marian Wong, a marine biologist from the University of Wollongong, said. "The public's perception is that the fish are mobile enough to just swim away."
In fact, clownfish - made famous by the Finding Nemo film  - and other species such as coral goby fish "are just terrible swimmers, designed to sit in their little spot their whole lives", she said.

Abundance of coral goby fish has dropped away markedly around Lizard Island. Photo: Catheline Froehlich

Dr Wong is part of a team of researchers who have made use of the Australian Museum's research station on Lizard Island to examine how sea anemones and fish have fared since the mass bleaching events. Where baseline data is available, early signs - at least from the far-north Queensland site - aren't pretty.

Around Lizard Island, there were about 13 species of coral gobies, a social fish often found in groups.
Now there is only a "very, very low abundance", Dr Wong said. "It's almost a complete location extinction of gobies there."
Anna Scott, a researcher from the Southern Cross University, studies sea anemones.

Clownfish are among the species hammered by the coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 and 2017. Photo: University of Wollongong

These species, related to corals, also bleach when stressed by high temperatures, expelling the algae that provide them their vivid colours and much of their energy.
When anemones die, anemone fish - including clownfish - lose the protection of the stinging tentacles and become easy prey for other fish.

Marian Wong, a marine biologist at the University of Wollongong, at Lizard Island.Photo: University of Wollongong

A visit last month to Lizard Island revealed "the first signs of recovery" in anemones, Dr Scott said. Since the area had not been mapped before, the recent work will serve as a baseline for future comparisons.
"There's a decline in numbers [of anemones from the bleaching] but we don't know the scale of it," she said.
While many changes may be subtle, others are obvious even to the casual observer.
The recent visit was notable for the absence of beautiful butterfly fish - which typically swim in pairs. "I don't think I saw a single one," Dr Wong said.
Whether coral, anemones and the fish that depend on them return in numbers resembling their more recent abundance likely hinges on "whether or not they are given time [to recover] without these warming events", Dr Wong said.
"These will keep happening if we continue, business as usual, with our use of fossil fuels."

Links

• World's Coral Reefs Face New Peril From Beneath Within Decades
• Great Barrier Reef In 'Deep Trouble' As Climate, Other Threats Mount: Official
• 'Wasteful Stunt': Turnbull Government Accused Of Doing Too Little To Save Reef
• Great Barrier Reef: Rising Temperatures Turning Green Sea Turtles Female
• Great Barrier Reef Will Be Dead By 2100, Says David Attenborough's Blue Planet II
• Why Climate Change Is A Key Issue In The Queensland Election
• Warming Limit Of 1.2 Degrees Needed To Save Great Barrier Reef: Expert Panel
• While Corals Die Along The Great Barrier Reef, Humans Struggle To Adjust
• The Great Barrier Reef Isn’t Listed As ‘In Danger’ – But It’s Still In Big Trouble
• World's Coral Reefs Face New Peril From Beneath Within Decades
• Global Warming’s Toll On Coral Reefs: As If They’re ‘Ravaged By War’
• Can Corals Survive Climate Change?
• Coral Bleaching: Researchers Struggle To Find Anywhere In Pacific Ocean Untouched
• Countries With Coral Reefs Must Do More On Climate Change – UNESCO
• 50 Reefs: World-First Global Plan Says Only 10 Pc Of Coral Reefs Can Be Saved From Extinction
• Enough PR Spin: We Need A Real Plan For The Reef That Includes Ditching Coal
• Great Barrier Reef: Most Coral Now Dead North Of Port Douglas Off Far North Queensland, Scientists Say
• NASA Begins Study Of Australia's Great Barrier Reef
• Great Barrier Reef: Government Must Choose Which Parts To Save, Says Expert
• Global Coral Bleaching Continues For a Record Third Year

Earth Hour: Millions Participate In Global Switch-Off To Raise Climate Change Awareness

The Independent - Josh Gabbatiss

Annual event sees global blackout as environmentalists hope to 'send a powerful message that we must act now' to save planet

Sydney Harbour Bridge and Opera House were among the first landmarks around the world to dim their lights for Earth Hour AFP

Millions of people in countries around the world switched off their lights for Earth Hour to raise awareness about climate change and other environmental issues.
Since beginning in Sydney in 2007, Earth Hour has spread to more than 180 countries, with tens of millions of people joining in – from turning off the porch lights to letting the Sydney Opera House go dark.
The 11th Earth Hour event focused on support for biodiversity – specifically forests, oceans and wildlife conservation.
Australia was the first nation to turn its lights off at 8.30pm local time, with other countries following suit as the sun set across the globe.
Key landmarks participating in the annual event included the Eiffel Tower in Paris, the Pyramids of Egypt and New York's Empire State Building.
In Jordan, the Royal Society for the Conservation of Nature arranged 11,440 candles on a hilltop in the capital of Amman, establishing a Guinness World Record for the largest candle mosaic.
Last year nearly nine million people took part in the event across the UK, where the lights went off in Tower Bridge, Brighton Pier and 400 other landmarks across the country.
The initiative, which is managed by WWF, is meant to “inspire millions to take action for our world”.
Earth Hour's 60 minutes are "an opportunity to adopt a shifting of the consumption culture, and behaviour change towards sustainability", said Indian Environment Minister Harsh Vardhan.

Marina Bay Sands hotel and resort with the lights switched off during the Earth Hour environmental campaign in Singapore (Getty Images)

Though switching off lights can result in a slight dip in electricity usage, the action is supposed to be largely symbolic.
However, besides the global blackout, the Earth Hour campaign has had some tangible achievements over the years.
These have included a ban on plastics in the Galapagos Islands and planting new forests in Uganda
To mark Earth Hour this year, WWF asked the public to make a "promise for the planet" – a small step in their own lives to help reduce their environmental footprint – such as refusing plastic cutlery or carrying a reusable coffee cup.

Filmmakers use 100-year-old photograph to map effect on climate change on a glacier

While these promises are small individually, WWF stated that “millions of people taking these actions together will have a massive, powerful impact”.
"This Earth Hour, millions of people around the UK are sending a powerful message that we must act now on climate change and pollution to save our planet,” said Tanya Steele, chief executive of WWF.
The launch of the event was accompanied by a report that warned of a surge in plastic use in the coming years across the UK.

Ancient Temple of Parthenon atop Acropolis hill in the dark during Earth Hour (Getty Images)

While the focus of Earth Hour is largely on individual measures that can be taken to help the planet, campaigners also called for strong action from Government and businesses to tackle issues like plastic waste.
“We can’t do it solely on people’s goodwill,” said Gareth Redmond-King, head of climate and energy at WWF UK.

Links

• Earth Hour 2018
• Earth Hour: Lights off to preserve the planet's environment
• Lights Around the World Go Dark for Earth Hour
• 'It's more than just turning off the lights': what else to do for Earth Hour
• Photos: Dubai's Burj Khalifa goes dark for Earth Hour
• Watch: UAE switches off to save planet Earth
• Sydney goes dark as Earth Hour climate campaign kicks off

Paul Ehrlich: 'Collapse Of Civilisation Is A Near Certainty Within Decades'

The Guardian - Damian Carrington

Fifty years after the publication of his controversial book The Population Bomb, biologist Paul Ehrlich warns overpopulation and overconsumption are driving us over the edge

The toxification of the planet with synthetic chemicals may be more dangerous to people and wildlife than climate change, says Ehrlich. Photograph: Linh Pham/Getty Images

A shattering collapse of civilisation is a “near certainty” in the next few decades due to humanity’s continuing destruction of the natural world that sustains all life on Earth, according to biologist Prof Paul Ehrlich.
In May, it will be 50 years since the eminent biologist published his most famous and controversial book, The Population Bomb. But Ehrlich remains as outspoken as ever.

Prof Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University.
Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo 

The world’s optimum population is less than two billion people – 5.6 billion fewer than on the planet today, he argues, and there is an increasing toxification of the entire planet by synthetic chemicals that may be more dangerous to people and wildlife than climate change.
Ehrlich also says an unprecedented redistribution of wealth is needed to end the over-consumption of resources, but “the rich who now run the global system – that hold the annual ‘world destroyer’ meetings in Davos – are unlikely to let it happen”.
The Population Bomb, written with his wife Anne Ehrlich in 1968, predicted “hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death” in the 1970s – a fate that was avoided by the green revolution in intensive agriculture.

Many details and timings of events were wrong, Paul Ehrlich acknowledges today, but he says the book was correct overall.
“Population growth, along with over-consumption per capita, is driving civilisation over the edge: billions of people are now hungry or micronutrient malnourished, and climate disruption is killing people.”

Make modern contraception and back-up abortion available to all and give women full equal rights, pay and opportunities

Ehrlich has been at Stanford University since 1959 and is also president of the Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere, which works “to reduce the threat of a shattering collapse of civilisation”.
“It is a near certainty in the next few decades, and the risk is increasing continually as long as perpetual growth of the human enterprise remains the goal of economic and political systems,” he says. “As I’ve said many times, ‘perpetual growth is the creed of the cancer cell’.”
It is the combination of high population and high consumption by the rich that is destroying the natural world, he says. Research published by Ehrlich and colleagues in 2017 concluded that this is driving a sixth mass extinction of biodiversity, upon which civilisation depends for clean air, water and food.

High consumption by the rich is destroying the natural world, says Ehrlich. Photograph: Paulo Whitaker/Reuters

The solutions are tough, he says. “To start, make modern contraception and back-up abortion available to all and give women full equal rights, pay and opportunities with men.
“I hope that would lead to a low enough total fertility rate that the needed shrinkage of population would follow. [But] it will take a very long time to humanely reduce total population to a size that is sustainable.”

It will take a very long time to humanely reduce total population to a size that is sustainable

He estimates an optimum global population size at roughly 1.5 to two billion, “But the longer humanity pursues business as usual, the smaller the sustainable society is likely to prove to be. We’re continuously harvesting the low-hanging fruit, for example by driving fisheries stocks to extinction.”
Ehrlich is also concerned about chemical pollution, which has already reached the most remote corners of the globe. “The evidence we have is that toxics reduce the intelligence of children, and members of the first heavily influenced generation are now adults.”
He treats this risk with characteristic dark humour: “The first empirical evidence we are dumbing down Homo sapiens were the Republican debates in the US 2016 presidential elections – and the resultant kakistocracy. On the other hand, toxification may solve the population problem, since sperm counts are plunging.”

Plastic pollution found in the most remote places on the planet show nowhere is safe from human impact. Photograph: Conor McDonnell 

Reflecting five decades after the publication of The Population Bomb (which he wanted to be titled Population, Resources, and Environment), he says: “No scientist would hold exactly the same views after a half century of further experience, but Anne and I are still proud of our book.” It helped start a worldwide debate on the impact of rising population that continues today, he says.
The book’s strength, Ehrlich says, is that it was short, direct and basically correct. “Its weaknesses were not enough on overconsumption and equity issues. It needed more on women’s rights, and explicit countering of racism – which I’ve spent much of my career and activism trying to counter.
“Too many rich people in the world is a major threat to the human future, and cultural and genetic diversity are great human resources.”
Accusations that the book lent support to racist attitudes to population control still hurt today, Ehrlich says. “Having been a co-inventor of the sit-in to desegregate restaurants in Lawrence, Kansas in the 1950s and having published books and articles on the biological ridiculousness of racism, those accusations continue to annoy me.”
But, he says: “You can’t let the possibility that ignorant people will interpret your ideas as racist keep you from discussing critical issues honestly.”

More of Paul and Anne Ehrlich’s reflections on their book are published in The Population Bomb Revisited.

Links

• The Population Bomb Revisited (pdf)
• The Population Bomb
• Earth's sixth mass extinction event under way, scientists warn
• What is biodiversity and why does it matter to us?
• Empty half the Earth of its humans. It's the only way to save the planet
• Europe's most densely populated square kilometres – mapped
• Graveyard living: inside the 'cemetery slums' of Manila
• The dysfunctional megacity: why Dhaka is bursting at the sewers

Britain Blocks Plans For New Coal Mine On Climate Grounds

Reuters - Susanna Twidale

LONDON - Britain has rejected plans for a new open cast coal mine in northeastern England, as it could hamper efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and curb climate change, the minister for local government said on Friday.

A view of the slopes of the Banks Group Shotton open cast mine in Northumberland, Britain, November 11, 2016. Picture taken November 11, 2016. REUTERS/Barbara Lewis/File Photo

Supporters of the project had said it could bring much needed jobs to the region, while environmental campaigners said it would go against Britain’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gases.
Britain plans to phase-out coal use at its power stations by 2025 as a part of its efforts to meet its climate targets, and is part of an international alliance pushing other countries to do the same.
Northumberland County Council agreed last year that the mine’s developer The Banks Group could extract 3 million tonnes of coal by cutting an open cast, or surface mine, near Druridge Bay, Highthorn.
But local government minister Sajid Javid rejected the application on Friday following a public inquiry, government documents show.
“The scheme would have an adverse effect on greenhouse gas emissions and climate change of very substantial significance, which he gives very considerable weight in the planning balance,” the government report, rejecting the application said.
Gavin Styles, managing director at the mine’s developer Banks Mining, said Britain was still dependent on coal for a number of purposes and the decision had been taken for “purely political reasons.”

A digger at the Banks Group Shotton open cast coal mine in Northumberland, November 11, 2016. Picture taken November 11, 2016. REUTERS/Barbara Lewis/File Photo

“The importance of securing investment in North East England, creating dozens of high quality local jobs, and opening up opportunities for regional suppliers to win substantial contracts could not be any clearer,” he said in an emailed statement.
The company said the project could employ 100 people and generate almost 50 million pounds ($70.43 million) in related contracts and other benefits to the community.
Styles said the company would carefully review the decision before deciding on the most appropriate next steps to take.
Environmentalists had criticized the plans, saying it would destroy an area of natural beauty and that extracting more coal is at odds with international pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris climate pact.
“This is the first coal mine ever to be rejected in the UK because of climate change impacts – a vindication for everyone who has been calling for fossil fuels to be left in the ground,” said Rose Dickinson, campaigner with environmental group Friends of the Earth.
Britain has a legally binding target to cut emissions of harmful greenhouse gases, such as those produced by fossil-fuel-based power plants, by 80 percent from 1990 levels by 2050.
It has also signed up to the international Paris agreement to curb emissions.

Links

• Global carbon emissions hit record high in 2017
• China's oil futures: frazzle or dazzle for foreign traders?
• Drillers give tepid response to record U.S. offshore lease sale
• Drillers snap up federal leases near Utah's wilderness monuments

Coal Plant Construction Extends Dive - But Not Fast Enough: Report

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Coal-fired power is on track to start shrinking globally by 2022, dimming prospects for exporters of the fossil fuel, including Australia, according to a report by environmental groups.
China and India, which have dominated construction of new power plants for more than a decade, both cut new capacity sharply for the second year in a row in 2017, the annual Boom and Bust report by Greenpeace, Sierra Club and CoalSwarm found.

On current trends, coal plant capacity worldwide could peak by 2022. Photo: AP

Taking into account plants that closed, China's net addition in 2017 was its lowest since 2003. For India, last year's newly operating capacity of 9 gigawatts was the smallest since 2009.

"China and India were once seen as countries blocking progress on climate change," Nikola Casule, a Greenpeace climate and energy campaigner, said. "That's clearly no longer the case."
By most measures, world approvals and construction of new coal-fired plants extended declines for a second year. Newly completed power stations were down 41 per cent compared with two years earlier to 60.2 GW, while construction starts were down 73 per cent to 45.9 GW, the report said.
With 97 GW of coal plants retiring in the past three years alone - almost half of that in the US - the world's coal fleet is on track to begin shrinking by 2022, it said.

Still, since coal plants typically have a design life of 40 years or more, the rates of retirements and cancelled projects both need to speed up if global carbon emission reduction targets are to be reached.

"In order to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the current pace of progress must be accelerated, including cancelling coal power projects under development and hastening retirement of aging coal fleets in Europe and the United States," it said.

The global trends raise questions about the outlook for Australia's coal export markets, and the wisdom of government support to open up major new mines such as Adani's planned Carmichael project in Queensland's Galilee Basin, Dr Casule said.
"The worst thing you could do is to build one of the world's biggest coal mines," he said.

The Australian Financial Review this week reported Adani is refusing to set a funding deadline after admitting that it would fail to meet a set-imposed target for the end of this month.

Tumbling prices for renewable energy, particularly solar panels, combined with the global agreement to reduce carbon emissions, mean the challenges for the thermal industry will continue to mount.
Instead, it was incumbent on governments and industry to prepare coal-mining communities for their inevitable decline.

"It would be a betrayal of Australians if we didn't plan for that transition," Dr Casule said.
The NSW Minerals Council declined to comment. Earlier this month, the industry lobby group said exports of thermal coal used in power plants reached 140 million tonnes in 2017, slightly down on 2016 but 15 per cent higher than five years earlier.

Matt Canavan, federal resources minister, said coal would "continue to be an important power source for decades to come".

“The International Energy Agency predicts Asian coal demand will increase by almost 12 per cent from 2016 through to 2040," he said.
“The greater use of Australia's higher quality coal will help bring down emissions because Australian coal has more energy content and hence generates fewer emissions."

The mining industry has highlighted prospects for new coal-fired power in south-east Asia.
Indonesia has the most new coal power under construction after China and India, the report found. Still, even there support may be waning as projects get cancelled.

IMAGE   Link

Links

• Boom and Bust 2018 - Tracking The Global Coal Plant Pipeline (pdf)
• NSW government's power plan reveals huge renewable energy resources
• Adani won't commit to fresh funding deadline for $16.5b Carmichael mine
• Latest figures confirm strong demand for NSW thermal coal in 2017