01/11/2018

The Big Meltdown

National Geographic - Craig Welch
Photographs - Paul Nicklen | Cristina Mittermeier | Keith Ladzinski

As the Antarctic Peninsula heats up, the rules of life there are being ripped apart. Alarmed scientists aren’t sure what all the change means for the future.


Shane Moore, Andy Mann, Jeff Patterson/RVRD

Dion Poncet came of age in a place almost no one calls home.
He was born on a sailboat in Leith Harbour, an abandoned whaling station on South Georgia island. His father, a French adventurer, had met his mother, an Australian zoologist, on a jetty in Tasmania while sailing his boat around the world. The couple started a family in the South Atlantic. For years they traversed the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, surveying wildlife in uncharted bays—seals, flowering plants, seabirds—with three boys in tow. Dion was the first.
Click here to see a detailed map of the Antarctic Peninsula and of how climate change is affecting its ice cover.
The Antarctic Peninsula is an 800-mile string of mountains and volcanoes that juts north from the White Continent like the tail on a horseshoe crab. It was Poncet’s playground. Young Dion and his brothers read, drew, and played with Legos—but also chased penguins, lifted chocolate from derelict research stations, and sledded down hills that might never have seen a human footprint. Other kids face schoolyard bullies; Dion was tormented by dive-bombing skuas, which whacked his head hard enough to make him cry. Other kids star in wobbly home movies; the Poncet boys were featured in a 1990 National Geographic film about growing up in the Antarctic. Sometimes, during breaks from homeschooling, Dion’s mom had him count penguins. “It got pretty boring pretty quickly,” he says.
On a frigid evening nearly 30 years later, Poncet and I stood in the wheelhouse of his 87-foot boat, the Hans Hansson, scanning the ice for Adélie penguins. At 39, Poncet is blond, block-jawed, and quiet, with enormous hands. He has spent much of his adult life ferrying scientists and other visitors in charter boats through the waters around South Georgia and Antarctica from his base in the Falklands. Along with a team of photographers led by Paul Nicklen, I had joined him for a voyage along the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. We wanted to see how things were changing in a region he’d known his whole life.
Adélie penguins slip and slide on ice; behind them, on Paulet Island, thousands more line the rocky, guano-streaked slopes. Adélie colonies along the peninsula’s western shores have collapsed as waters have warmed. But here on the peninsula’s northeast tip, winds and ocean currents keep waters a little cooler, and Adélies are thriving.
Paul Nicklen                LARGE IMAGE



A damp Adélie fledgling struggles to shake the moisture from its muddy down. Warming has increased precipitation so much along the western Antarctic Peninsula that many penguin chicks— whose moisture-repelling feathers haven’t yet come in— get soaked and then freeze to death in polar winds.
Cristina Mittermeier                LARGE IMAGE

On a morning when five leopard seals could be seen circling nearby, these chinstrap, gentoo, and Adélie penguins raced ashore, stumbling and bumping into one another on their way back to their respective colonies.
Keith Ladzinski                LARGE IMAGE


He grew up in Antarctica. Now he's leaving. Dion Poncet was born on a sailboat in Antarctica. Now his home is disappearing right in front of his eyes.


Here at the bottom of the world, a place all but free of human settlement, humanity is scrambling one of the ocean’s richest wildernesses. Fossil-fuel burning thousands of miles away is heating up the western peninsula faster than almost anywhere else. (Only the Arctic compares.) The warming is yanking apart the gears of a complex ecological machine, changing what animals eat, where they rest, how they raise their young, even how they interact. At the same time, the shrimplike krill upon which almost all animals here depend for food are being swept up by trawlers from distant nations. They’re being processed into dietary supplements and pharmaceuticals, and fed to salmon in Norwegian fjords and to tropical fish in aquariums.
So much here is changing so fast that scientists can’t predict where it’s all headed. “Something dramatic is under way,” says Heather Lynch, a penguin biologist at Stony Brook University. “It should bother us that we don’t really know what’s going on.”
What we can see is troubling enough. On the western peninsula, Adélie penguin populations have collapsed, some by 90 percent or more. Records of great hordes of the birds in one bay date back to 1904; today in that spot “there are only about six nests left,” Poncet says. That day in the wheelhouse, when Poncet and I spotted our first massive colony, we had left the west for the peninsula’s northeast tip.
Sea-worn stones form a path to beached and broken sea ice. Ice is central to life along the 800-mile Antarctic Peninsula, which juts up toward South America, but warming air and water are melting it on land and sea.
Keith Ladzinski                LARGE IMAGE
Ice here takes endless forms, from squared-off tabular bergs the size of small towns, to pinnacles and wedges with shooting spires and sloped sides. But it's melting fast.
Paul Nicklen

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Warm water and warm air sculpted this iceberg. As its base melted, says glaciologist Richard Alley, plumes of fresh meltwater flowed up its flanks, pulling in warm seawater that carved deep grooves. As the top melted, the iceberg became lighter and the grooves rose out of the water.
Paul Nicklen
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On tiny Paulet Island, thousands of penguins were perched in rows up a rocky slope, evenly spaced, like an audience at an opera house. We could see some wandering the remains of an old stone hut built in 1903 by shipwrecked Swedish explorers, who survived a long Antarctic winter by eating penguins. On an iceberg off our starboard beam, a noisy cluster of penguins slipped and knocked about like wobbly bowling pins. When I saw one glissade down polished ice, its flippers pulled back in a skier’s tuck, then tumble into a trio of fellow birds, I laughed out loud. Poncet just nodded.
Antarctica is not all death and chaos: Millions of Adélies still thrive around the continent, performing their unintentional comedy. But the western peninsula’s transformation is profound, and few have seen more of it unfold than Poncet. The world he once knew is unraveling. He speaks of the loss like a farm kid who has watched suburbia gobble the family homestead.
“All the things you used to experience, the places I went when I was a child—I took it for granted then,” Poncet says. “Now you realize it’s not ever going to be possible again.”


Much of Antarctica is a vast plateau, a high desolate desert of blowing snow where temperatures can plunge to minus 140°F. Poncet’s Antarctica isn’t like that at all.
The Antarctic Peninsula is longer than Italy and curls north toward the temperate zone. Its climate—for Antarctica—has always been mild. Summer temperatures often rise above freezing. Isolated patches of vegetation dot exposed granite and basalt. Adélie penguins live all along the coast of Antarctica, but the peninsula also supports species the harsh mainland can’t: fur seals, elephant seals, gentoo and chinstrap penguins. Petrels and sheathbills flit about the skies. All this life relies on the sea.
On the rugged peninsula, Antarctica’s stillness is punctuated by squawking and chattering and concentrated motion. It’s a place of bizarre angles: Blue-white glaciers flow to the ocean and calve into icebergs that assume every form imaginable. Bergs the size of small towns reach into the clouds. Even dozens of miles away, you hear them crack and explode like cannons.
It looks like wilderness, and it is, but it is not untouched. People began altering life in this region decades before anyone had even seen Antarctica. Not long after Capt. James Cook first cut through Antarctic waters in the 1770s, hunters started slaughtering fur seals by the millions, mostly for hats and coats. They also killed elephant seals for oil, to be used in paint and soap. The first to set foot on the continent were probably Connecticut seal hunters who came ashore briefly on the western peninsula in 1821.
In time whalers began harpooning sei whales, blues, fins, and humpbacks. They stripped baleen, or whalebone, from their mouths to make whips, umbrella ribs, corsets, and carriage springs and used the whale oil for heat, lamps, and margarine. In the early 20th century South Georgia became a whaling mecca. Leith Harbour was the last of its stations to close, in 1966.


See Antarctica like never before. The southernmost continent is otherworldly, beautiful, and dangerous. Hear National Geographic photographer Cristina Mittermeier describe her experience there.

Climate change has since left an unmistakable mark. Winter air on the western peninsula has warmed more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1950s. Winds drive changes in ocean circulation that bring warmer deep water toward the surface, helping to reduce sea ice—the broken crust that forms when the ocean’s briny surface freezes. Sea ice now appears later and disappears faster: The ice-free season on the western peninsula lasts a full 90 days longer than in 1979. For a Northern Hemisphere equivalent, imagine summer suddenly stretching to Christmas.
The winter before Poncet was born, his parents spent weeks camping and exploring frozen Marguerite Bay, hauling gear by sledge across its solid surface. “Nowadays,” Poncet says, “that’s finished. Sea ice barely even forms.”
The loss of ice exposes warm water to the cold air, increasing evaporation, which returns to the world’s driest continent as snow—even rain. On a 2016 trip to Marguerite Bay, halfway down the west coast, Poncet faced a deluge that lasted almost a week. “Thirty years ago I don’t think anyone had ever seen a drop of water fall from the sky down there,” he says.
The balmier water pulled from the deep even affects ice on land, by attacking glaciers where they meet the sea as floating shelves. At least 596 of the western peninsula’s 674 glaciers are in retreat, according to a British survey. Elsewhere in Antarctica, far larger ice shelves are thawing and crumbling, threatening a rapid rise in global sea levels. On the east coast of the peninsula itself, ice has been failing spectacularly too—a Delaware-size piece broke off the Larsen C Ice Shelf just last year. But the east coast can still be five degrees Fahrenheit cooler than the west. Prevailing winds often push sea ice from the west around the tip of the peninsula to the east, where a gyre traps it against land.
The western peninsula is Antarctica’s hot spot. Often depicted on maps in white, it’s now so warm that tufts of the continent’s only native flowering plants, hair grass and yellow-flowered pearlwort, are spreading. So are invasive grasses and lichens. Green moss is growing three times as fast as it did in the past. Island peaks once cloaked in snow are now wet and melting, exposing mud or yawning crevasses.
“The landscape is shriveling,” Poncet says.
Hiking recently on the south shore of Elephant Island, off the tip of the peninsula, Poncet was flabbergasted by how temperate things seemed. The weather was humid, the landscape ice free, and enough grass had sprouted that it brought to mind a meadow.
“It didn’t feel like Antarctica at all,” he says.


A heavy rain is falling as we depart the Hans Hansson one morning on black rubber rafts, bound for a pebbly shore near the Antarctic Sound, at the northern tip of the peninsula. On a rocky shelf colored like a sunset by streaks of guano, we spy several muddy Adélie penguins. One is a fledgling, whose gray, pillowy down is damp and matted.
Adélies are the peninsula’s only truly Antarctic penguin species. (Chinstraps also live in South America; red-beaked gentoos range from there to Africa.) They build nests of pebbles and return to the same site each year at the same time, even if it’s raining or snowing or ice is melting. They prefer dry rock or soil but now are often forced to build on light snow—only to have nests collapse when the snow melts or fill like ponds when it rains. Adélie eggs are drowning in flooded nests. Drenched and windblown chicks are freezing to death; they lack the moisture-repelling feathers that protect adults.
Adults, meanwhile, struggle with lost sea ice. Adélies molt on floes far at sea and use ice as way stations to avoid predators between hunts. They can swim for days but tend to dive only in the upper few hundred feet of sea. As waters warm, more adaptable penguins are pushing in. Gentoos—fat, tall generalists—are more flexible about when and where they build nests and are more apt to lay new eggs if nesting fails. They hunt closer to land and eat whatever is available. From 1982 to 2017, the number of breeding pairs of Adélies along the western peninsula and South Shetland Islands dropped by more than 70 percent, from 105,000 to 30,000. Gentoo pairs saw a sixfold increase, from 25,000 to 173,000.
A young blue-eyed shag attempts what may be its first dive near shore. Many flying seabirds nest or feed along the Antarctic Peninsula. Cristina Mittermeier                LARGE IMAGE

A skua bathes in a tide pool. Skuas prey on penguin eggs and chicks, fish, and krill. They also act as scavengers—the Antarctic equivalent of vultures, on constant cleanup duty in a place where carcasses don’t decompose because of the icy cold. Keith Ladzinski
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Scientists tracking how climate change is altering life for seabirds on or near the Antarctic Peninsula, such as these blue-eyed shags, often rely on early bird counts done in the 1980s by Dion Poncet’s parents. Keith Ladzinski
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Ice is essential to more than just Adélies. It’s as central to this region as grass is to the savanna. When it disappears, relationships can shift unpredictably. One morning near the Antarctic Sound, Nicklen, photographer Keith Ladzinski, and I zip into dry suits and go snorkeling near shore. We watch a skittish Adélie survey the waves from a crumbling raft of ice. The bird seems hesitant to plunge in—with good reason. A leopard seal is circling and occasionally nosing onto the ice.
A leopard seal can weigh half as much as a small car. Its toothy jaws open wider than a grizzly bear’s. When closed, its mouth curves in a mischievous smile. That’s how the predator looks as it corkscrews around us—rakish, impatient, the king of its domain.
Suddenly, two more leopard seals appear. They turn in lazy laps, spiraling one after the other. Soon there are two more, their eyes locked on other penguins. One by one, the birds slip into the water, and the seals give chase. Some penguins turn and scamper back to ice and safety. Others aren’t so lucky. In an area not much bigger than two suburban backyards, five seals are soon feasting on penguins, shaking and shredding their bloody prey.
The show is mesmerizing—and “highly unusual,” Tracey Rogers, a leopard seal expert at the University of New South Wales, later tells me. Leopard seals, like grizzlies, are solitary creatures that usually stake out vast territories offshore. They need ice floes to rest on between hunts. Loss of ice from climate change is leading them to congregate near land, shifting how, where, and even what they hunt.
A swimming Adélie beats a hasty retreat to a small iceberg as a hungry leopard seal prepares to make another pass. Typically leopard seals hunt alone from offshore ice floes. But with sea ice appearing later and disappearing sooner, they now often congregate close to shore, where the penguin colonies are. Paul Nicklen
                

A leopard seal nips at a young Adélie before dragging it deep and drowning it (top). These half-ton predators sometimes toy with penguins, catching them and then letting them go, only to wait and nab them again moments later. One of the curious predators comes in for a closer look at photographer Paul Nicklen (bottom). Paul Nicklen, Cristina Mittermeier
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Crabeater seals slither onto floating ice to nap, give birth, or hide from killer whales or leopard seals. (Note the prominent scars.) With less sea ice available off the Antarctic Peninsula, icebergs like this one, calved from glaciers on land, provide critical resting places for animals. Despite their name, crabeaters feed mostly on shrimplike krill— another Antarctic staple whose future is in doubt. Cristina Mittermeier
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Get up close and personal with leopard seals in Antarctica and learn why they’re at the top of their food chain.

Leopard seals used to be rarely seen near fur seal breeding grounds. “Some sealers in the 1800s kept meticulous logs and records,” says Doug Krause, a wildlife biologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “None of them reported seeing leopard seals hanging around.” Now, 60 to 80 leopard seals wriggle ashore every year at Cape Shirreff, in the South Shetlands. At the region’s largest fur-seal breeding ground, they kill more than half the newborn pups.
After commercial sealing stopped in Antarctica in the 1950s, fur seals started making a triumphant comeback. Scientists thought they would adapt well to a warming climate. Now their numbers at Cape Shirreff are declining 10 percent each year. “What we’re seeing is extraordinary,” Krause says. “No one saw this coming.”


No one foresaw the good news either—the boom in humpback whales.
Starting in the early 20th century, industrial whalers drove most of Antarctica’s cetaceans nearly to extinction, and many species are still struggling. Blue whales, for example, are thought to have numbered about a quarter of a million around 1900; the population today is 5 percent of that. But Antarctic humpbacks are roaring back: Their population is rising by 7 to 10 percent a year. “They’re going bonkers!” Ari Friedlaender shouts as we dart across the water in an open skiff in the Palmer Archipelago, where we rendezvoused with him.
Friedlaender, a marine ecologist with the University of California at Santa Cruz and a National Geographic explorer, has been studying humpbacks off Antarctica since 2001, tracking how and where they move and feed. He has recorded them rolling and playing with one another and diving deeper than anyone expected. He’s seen them opening gashes in ice with their blowholes. For animals that can weigh up to 40 tons, all this requires a lot of energy—and for now, he says, climate change is making more fuel available.
A humpback whale displays its fluke before diving on a calm evening in the Gerlache Strait. Humpbacks are thriving as shorter sea-ice seasons give them more time and room to hunt krill. Paul Nicklen
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Several humpback whales spiral around a mass of krill (top), releasing bursts of air bubbles to corral their prey—which they then consume by lunging open-mouthed through the school. The photographers also encountered a dead humpback (bottom). While it's impossible to know what killed this particular animal, an increase in ship traffic has increased the risk of whales being struck. Paul Nicklen
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Bones of blue whales still dot the peninsula’s coast—a stark reminder of how fast humans can upend the natural world. After more than a century of whaling, much of it along these shores, the blue whale population is 5 percent of what it once was. Keith Ladzinski
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Friedlaender saw his first sign of that on a cruise in May 2009. It was late fall, so he and his colleagues assumed the humpbacks would have long since left for their wintering grounds near Ecuador and Panama. Then an echo-sounder detected a blob of krill that spread for miles below the ship. “We woke the next day, and there were more whales than any of us had ever seen at any time, at any place on the planet,” says Friedlaender, who has also studied them off Alaska, California, and New England. They counted 306 humpbacks in a 10-mile stretch. “They were here because there was no ice.”
Humpbacks, he explains, used to leave Antarctica in late March or early April, when sea ice closed in. Now they have many more ice-free weeks with more open water in which to roam widely and feed on krill. Those beady-eyed, translucent creatures are the size of a child’s pinkie, but they travel in thick swarms that can stretch for miles, with 78,000 or more in a single cubic yard. Humpbacks are sticking around and fattening up on krill, and that’s fueling a population boom. Female whales are producing calves every year. Lactating mothers have so much strength they’re feeding newborns while pregnant. “That’s insane for an animal that big,” Friedlaender says.
He pulls alongside a humpback and her calf, resting in brash ice. The skiff bobs as Friedlaender, like some ponytailed modern harpooner, raises a long shaft above his head. The business end holds a waterproof camera fitted with suction cups. Friedlaender steadies his quivering weapon, takes aim, then slaps the camera on the leviathan’s back. The surprised whale makes a sound like a wet snore. Both mother and calf dive.
“Felt like a great stick!” Friedlaender yells. For a day or two, until it falls off and floats to the surface to be retrieved, the camera will record a whale’s-eye view of the sea. Humpbacks fare far and deep with few natural competitors. But how well they fare now depends on us.


A few years ago, an icebreaker dragged research nets around the Palmer Archipelago, looking for Antarctic silverfish—oily, sardinelike creatures that spawn beneath sea ice. They used to be the dominant fish off the western peninsula, composing half of what some Adélie penguins ate. But the team, led by Joseph Torres of the University of South Florida, towed day and night around Anvers and Renaud Islands and never caught a single silverfish. In waters that have experienced some of the greatest sea-ice declines, the fish had all but disappeared. Meanwhile scientists noticed penguins gulping more krill—even though it can take 20 krill to match the caloric value of one silverfish.
Will there be enough krill to go around? It’s not an easy question. Penguins and humpbacks eat krill, but so do skuas, squid, fur seals, and crabeater seals. Leopard seals sometimes eat krill. A blue whale eats millions a day. Animals that don’t eat krill often feed on prey that does. Antarctica loves fatty krill. So do we.
In the 1960s, seeing a potential new seafood source, Soviet fleets began circling the continent. Today about 10 ships a year catch krill, led by Norway, South Korea, China, Chile, and Ukraine. The catch turns up in omega-3 pills and chewable krill-oil gummies and farmed salmon. In Ukraine peeled krill is sold in tins, like sardines. Sometimes krill gets processed at sea, boiled and dried into powder on huge trawlers.
Translucent krill, about two inches long, are the centerpiece of the Antarctic food web. Fish, squid, penguins, seals, and whales all consume krill—and so do we. Ships from various countries come to Antarctica to net swarming krill by the billions, for use in dietary supplements or to feed farmed salmon and aquarium fish. Keith Ladzinski
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After almost a month at sea we finally see one, in the Bransfield Strait, off the South Shetlands. A storm rocks the 333-foot Long Da, a Chinese mid-water factory trawler, as we pull along her stern. The boat’s net courses through the water like a gape-mouthed whale shark. As the crew haul it in, the net’s green mesh curls over itself, cocooning millions of krill.
For now, krill around Antarctica remain abundant. Trawlers net only a tiny fraction of the continent’s krill. Fishing is tightly managed by 24 countries and the European Union, organized as the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR). But krill populations are cyclical, and researchers can’t say how quickly or severely warming and loss of ice may affect them. “We measure krill and may think we understand it, but we don’t, really,” says Christian Reiss of NOAA Fisheries.
Many experts worry that krill boats could target and deplete krill on feeding grounds important for other wildlife. A team of U.S. government scientists in 2017 put it bluntly: “If predators and the fishery use the same population of krill, it follows that removal of krill by one group may limit the availability to the other.” Most fishing takes place where climate change has stressed animals the most—near the western peninsula. “Where is there also one of the greatest densities of predators?” Friedlaender asks. “Same place.”


National Geographic Photographer Paul Nicklen braves rough ocean waters and sub-zero temperatures to return to Antarctica and dive beneath the ice for a close-up encounter with a twelve-foot-long leopard seal.

In 2017 Chile and Argentina proposed that CCAMLR place thousands of square miles west and north of the peninsula off-limits to krill fishing. Just this summer, environmental groups and Norway’s AkerBioMarine, the largest krill-fishing company in the world, helped persuade most others in the krill industry to avoid fishing near penguin colonies during breeding periods next year. Starting in 2020, the companies say, they will stay at least 30 kilometers, or 19 miles, from penguin colonies year-round.
Many scientists and wildlife advocates maintain that permanent no-fishing zones regulated by CCAMLR are the safest solution. Otherwise, says Kim Bernard, an Oregon State University oceanographer who studies krill, “things could go very badly here. That really scares me.”
The sun sets on Booth Island, near the Lemaire Channel. Keith Ladzinski                LARGE IMAGE

31/10/2018

There Are Three Options In Tackling Climate Change. Only One Will Work

The Guardian - *

We’re now at a fork in the road: either we cut out fossil fuels completely, or we pass on a dying planet to our children
An iceberg melts in Kulusuk, Greenland. ‘The process of permafrost thawing in tundra regions is releasing dangerous greenhouse gases on an unimaginable scale.’ Photograph: John Mcconnico/AP
The world faces a near-impossible decision – one that is already determining the character and quality of the lives of the generations succeeding us.
It is clear from the latest IPCC climate report that the first and only effective course, albeit a deeply unpopular one, would be to stop using any fossil fuels. The second would be to voluntarily minimise their use as much as climate scientists have calculated would deliver some prospect of success. Finally, we can carry on as we are by aiming to meet the growth in demand for activities dependent on fossil fuels, allowing market forces to mitigate the problems that such a course of action generates – and leave it to the next generation to set in train realistic solutions (if that is possible), that the present one has been unable to find.
These are the choices. There are no others. Future generations will judge us on what we choose to do in full knowledge – accessories before the fact – of the devastating consequences of continuing with our energy-profligate lifestyles.
What a legacy we are bequeathing – regions of the world becoming uninhabitable at an accelerating rate, creating potentially millions of ecological refugees; a burgeoning world population, diminishing reserves of finite and other resources, shortages of water and food, calamitous loss of genetic variability, and wars of survival.
Remarkably, public expectations about the future indicate that only minor changes in the carbon-based aspects of our lifestyles are anticipated. It is as if people can continue to believe that they have an inalienable right to travel as far and as frequently as they can afford. Indeed, there is a widespread refusal by politicians to admit to the fact the process of melting ice caps contributing to sea level rises, and permafrost thawing in tundra regions cannot now be stopped, let alone reversed. The longer we procrastinate, the greater the certainty of environmental degradation, social upheaval and economic chaos.
National leaders are unable to reconcile the expectations of their electorates for higher living standards by burning fossil fuels, with the absolute need to live within the planet’s finite environmental capacity. Nor, in democracies, can they move too far ahead of public opinion.
In this key area of international policy, the undesirable outcomes can all too often be laid at the door of scientists who inform politicians of the options now open to them. They subscribe to many fallacious assumptions about carbon dioxide emissions that are close to tenets of faith.
Progress continues to be measured in terms of carbon dioxide reductions towards the goal of zero emissions. However, carbon dioxide emitted into the global atmosphere remains there for well over 100 years. Switching to low-carbon developments and renewable energy sources makes no contribution to reducing its concentration: it can only reduce the rate at which the concentration continues to rise. Fossil-fuel dependent economic growth is the prime cause. Most growth can only be partly decoupled from its use. Happiness, positive health, nature, life-long education, community, music and love have no price that can realistically be attached to them so are not counted for the purposes of measuring “growth” – although their enjoyment requires hardly any of these fuels.
The claims of future generations on reserves are not considered to be sufficiently relevant to policy to be included in any share-out. Likewise, no value is given to cover unquantifiable yet potentially huge adverse effects, such as the resettlement of ecological refugees. One may ask: whose brief within governments is it to speak out about the consequences of decisions affecting medium- and long-term futures?
Concern about the reliability of climate data stems from the changing role of carbon sinks of oceans, forests and soils only partially absorbing CO2 emissions. Until recently, just over half the emissions were taken up by the sinks, with the balance accumulating in the atmosphere. This is no longer the case. The present upward path of global emissions from fossil fuel burning shows clearly that “sink-efficiency” has been noticeably decreasing since 2010.
The IPCC report is also the first time that measuring and integrating carbon and feedback emissions has been acknowledged, and this is the most serious warning yet that global warming is accelerating out of control. Whereas budget emissions of carbon could theoretically be reduced by not burning fossil fuels, the release of the feedback emissions of methane from rising temperatures cannot be.
History shows that, when presented with unpalatable evidence of the undesirable effects of our decisions, we either bury our collective heads in the sand, or order the problems we face in terms of their tractability. Where they are judged to be intractable, as in this instance, they are relegated for later attention. We cannot continue to delude ourselves that the transition to near-zero fossil fuel use is possible without global mandation.
The overriding message located between the lines of the IPCC report is that we must lead our lives within the planet’s means. In all conscience, we are currently locked into a process that will inevitably result in passing on a dying planet to our children and their successors. Should this not be at the absolute top of the international debating agenda?

*Mayer Hillman is a senior fellow emeritus at the Policy Studies Institute and author of How We Can Save the Planet

Links

Redrawing The Map: How The World’s Climate Zones Are Shifting

Yale Environment 360 - 

Rising global temperatures are altering climatic zones around the planet, with consequences for food and water security, local economies, and public health. Here’s a stark look at some of the distinct features that are already on the move.
A young boy herds his goats in the Ghat District of Libya, which has been converted largely to desert in the last 100 years. TAHA JAWASHI/AFP/Getty Images
As human-caused emissions change the planet’s atmosphere, and people reshape the landscape, things are changing fast. The receding line of Arctic ice has made headlines for years, as the white patch at the top of our planet shrinks dramatically. The ocean is rising, gobbling up coastlines. Plants, animals, and diseases are on the move as their patches of suitable climate move too.
Sometimes, the lines on the map can literally be redrawn: the line of where wheat will grow, or where tornadoes tend to form, where deserts end, where the frozen ground thaws, and even where the boundaries of the tropics lie.
Here we summarize some of the littler-known features that have shifted in the face of climate change and pulled the map out from under the people living on the edges. Everything about global warming is changing how people grow their food, access their drinking water, and live in places that are increasingly being flooded, dried out, or blasted with heat waves. Seeing these changes literally drawn on a map helps to hammer these impacts home.

The tropics are getting bigger at 30 miles per decade
The tropics are expanding by half a degree per decade.
Source: Staten et al., Nature Climate Change, 2018. Graphic by Katie Peek.
On an atlas, the boundary of the tropics is marked out by the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, at about 23 degrees north and south. These lines are determined by where the sun lies directly overhead on the December and June solstices. But from a climate perspective, most scientists draw the edges of the tropics instead at the nearby boundary of the Hadley cell — a large-scale circulation pattern where hot air rises at the equator, and falls back to earth, cooler and drier, somewhere around 30 degrees latitude north (the top of the Sahara desert and Mexico) and 30 degrees south (the bottom of the Kalahari Desert).
The word “tropical” often brings to mind rainforests, colorful birds, and lush, dripping foliage, but the vast majority of our planet’s middle region is actually quite dry. “The ratio is something like 100 to 1,” says Jian Lu, a climate scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Washington. About a decade ago, scientists first noticed that this dry belt seemed to be getting bigger. The dry edges of the tropics are expanding as the subtropics push both north and south, bringing ever-drier weather to places including the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, the smaller equatorial region with heavy rains is actually contracting, Lu says: “People call it the tropic squeeze.”
In a paper published in August, Lu and colleagues tracked how and why the Hadley cell is expanding. They found that since satellite records started in the late 1970s, the edges of the tropics have been moving at about 0.2-0.3 degrees of latitude per decade (in both the north and the south) .The change is already dramatic in some areas, Lu says — the average over 30 years is about a degree of latitude, or approximately 70 miles, but in some spots the dry expansion is larger. The result is that the boundary between where it’s getting wetter and where it’s getting drier is pushing farther north, making even countries as far north as Germany and Britain drier. Meanwhile, already dry Mediterranean countries are really feeling the change: In 2016, for example, the eastern Mediterranean region had its worst drought in 900 years. The last time the tropics expanded northward (from 1568 to 1634, due to natural climate fluctuations), droughts helped to trigger the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.
There are several reasons for the shift in the Hadley cell, Lu’s team reports, including the ozone hole in the Southern Hemisphere and warming black soot in air pollution from Asia, along with rising air temperatures from greenhouse gases. Changes in sea surface temperatures, Lu says, seems to be causing at least half of the shift. That means predicting future tropical expansion is difficult, says Lu. “We can’t put a number on it, but we have a rough idea it will keep increasing.”

The Sahara desert has gotten 10 percent bigger since 1920
Since 1902, the Sahara Desert has grown 10 percent, advancing as much as 
500 miles northward over the winter months in some spots.
Source: Thomas & Nigam, Journal of Climate, 2018. Graphic by Katie Peek.
The world’s largest warm-weather desert is getting bigger. The Sahara already covers a vast 3.6 million square miles — an area nearly as large as the United States. The desert’s edges are defined by rainfall; the line is usually drawn where the ground sees just 4 inches per year. When Natalie Thomas and Sumant Nigam, ocean and atmospheric scientists at the University of Maryland, looked at records stretching from 2013 back to 1920, they found that these boundaries for the Sahara had crept both northward and southward, making the entire region about 10 percent larger.
The change, which is expected to reduce some countries’ ability to grow food, hardly seems fair. “Morally, how do we deal with the fact that developing countries are paying the price?” says Thomas. One study in the 1990s showed that the limit of where plants could grow in the dry southern edge of the Sahara had moved nearly 81 miles south in the 10 years between 1980 and 1990.
Across most of the Sahara the change is on the order of tens of miles over the study period, but in other spots it’s far more dramatic: Libya has gone from being mostly not desert in 1920, to mostly desert in 2013, as the line there has advanced a shocking 500 miles or so in winter months. Lake Chad, which sits on the southern edge of the Sahara, shrank dramatically from 9,600 square miles in the 1970s to less than 770 square miles in the 1990s, in part due to reduced rainfall in the Sahel, the dry region just to the south of the Sahara.
Nigam and his colleague calculate that about two-thirds of the change might be accounted for by natural climate cycles, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which help to determine rainfall. But the remaining third, they reckon, is down to climate change — the northern edge of the desert, for example, seems to be moving because of the climate-driven poleward creep of the tropics.

The 100th Meridian has shifted 140 miles east
The arid Western plains of North America meet the wetter, eastern region near the 100th Meridian.
This climatic boundary has shifted about 140 miles east since 1980. 
Source: Seager et al., Earth Interactions, 2018. Graphic by Katie Peek.
Back in the 1870s, scientist and explorer John Wesley Powell noticed a stark transition between the arid Western plains of North America and the wetter, eastern region. As he wrote, “passing from east to west across this belt a wonderful transformation is observed”: a “luxuriant growth of grass” gives way to “naked” ground with the occasional cacti. The line between the two regions goes from Mexico to Manitoba, cutting right through the continent’s breadbasket. To the east, farmers grow mainly rain-loving corn; to the west, mainly drought-resistant wheat.
This climatic transition has long been called the 100th Meridian, after the longitudinal line that it roughly matches up with. But in March, climate scientist Richard Seager of the Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University and colleagues published papers showing the transition is on the move.
The reasons for the existence of the line are many: the Rocky Mountains force the wet air blowing in from the Pacific to rain out before the winds reach the plains; Atlantic storms and winds from the Gulf of Mexico bring moisture to the east. Now things are changing. Rainfall hasn’t changed much in the northern plains, but rising temperatures are increasing evaporation from the soil and drying things out. Meanwhile, rainfall is diminishing further south due to shifts in wind patterns. In total, that seems to have moved the line about 140 miles eastward since 1980, Seager calculated. The shift seen so far might be due to natural variability, he says, but it’s in line with what we expect to keep happening because of climate change. And it will keep moving east as the planet keeps warming.
U.S. farmers don’t seem to report problems or changes yet, Seager says, but he predicts that the country’s agriculture will eventually have to adapt, by adding more irrigation, for example, using different seeds, or shifting their crop entirely from one plant to another.

Tornado Alley has shifted 500 miles east in 30 years
Hotspots for tornado formation in the U.S. have shifted east 500 miles since the mid-1980s, 
along with shifts in temperatures.
Source: Agee et al, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2016. Graphic by Katie Peek.
The author of the Wizard of Oz likely chose Kansas for the book’s setting for a reason: it was smack dab in the middle of “Tornado Alley,” the stretch from South Dakota to Texas that’s infamous for destructive storms. But things are changing; research shows that tornados are now more likely to hit homes some 500 miles to the east in Southern states, including Tennessee and Alabama.
Earth scientist Ernest Agee of Purdue University in Indiana and colleagues looked at tornado activity going back to the 1950s when modern tornado records began, and compared the first 30 years of records to the next 30. This showed a clear shift in where tornadoes were hitting hardest, both in terms of the total number of tornadoes and the number of tornado days. In the first half of the study period, from 1954 to 1983, an area in Oklahoma was king, with a total of 477 tornadoes. But that area’s tornado count decreased dramatically, by 45 percent, in the second half of the study period, from 1984 to 2013. Meanwhile, an equivalently sized area in northern Alabama bumped up 48 percent to 477 large tornadoes. Tennessee’s number of days of violent tornadoes doubled, from 14 to 28 days, making the state arguably the new heart of tornado activity, the authors argue.
The researchers don’t know exactly why the shift happened. Part of the reason might be attributed to who is reporting tornados, notes co-author Sam Childs, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University. “The storm prediction center is based out of Oklahoma City. There were a lot of reports there at first, and that’s broadening out with time,” Childs says. “But there’s definitely a meteorological effect too.” The shift in tornadoes matches up with a change in the weather, he notes. The eastern half of the U.S. was about 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer during the second half of the study, making it likely that climate had something to do with the move.
The general link between weather and tornadoes is fairly well established. Tornadoes need several things to form, including warm, wet, buoyant air and high wind shear. As the 100th Meridian moves eastward, it is pushing drier conditions further east (Oklahoma lies right on that line). But it’s hard to say why Tennessee is seeing more of them, and the future for tornado activity is hard to predict.

Plant Hardiness Zones are moving north in the U.S. at 13 miles per decade
Hardiness zones in the U.S., which track average low temperatures in winter, 
have all shifted northward by half a zone warmer since 1990. 
  Source: United States Department of Agriculture. Graphic by Katie Peek.
As any gardener knows, the easiest way to keep track of which plants will fare well where you live, or when to plant your tomatoes to avoid a spring frost, is by taking note of your “hardiness zone.” In the frozen depths of Alaska and Siberia’s zone 1, you might want to plant something like Yarrow to survive overwinter; in zone 5, which cuts through the Corn Belt in the U.S. Midwest, you can plant asparagus in March or April.
Hardiness maps are published around the world, but it’s easiest to see change where the idea was first developed, in the United States. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s hardiness map, first published in 1960, is based on the average annual minimum temperature of any given spot — a metric that plays a big part in determining if perennial crops like orange trees will make it through the coldest months. Each zone marks out a 10 degrees F band, from -60 to -50 degrees F in zone 1 to 60 to 70 degrees F in zone 13. When that map was last updated, in 2012, nearly half the country was upgraded to half a zone warmer than it had been in 1990; in other words, all the lines shifted on average a little to the north. That was partly thanks to more detailed mapping techniques, the authors of the map reported, but also because temperatures were warmer in the more recent data set.
The researchers who produced the 2012 revision stopped short of saying the change was due to climate change, especially since the method of how they produced the map changed so much from one version to the next. But others have followed up on the same idea to show how climate change, specifically, is shifting U.S. hardiness zones.
Lauren Parker and John Abatzoglou of the University of Idaho tracked what would happen to hardiness zones from 2041 to 2070 under future global warming scenarios, and found the lines will continue to march northward at a “climate velocity” of 13.3 miles per decade. That means big changes in store for three major cash crops, they note. Almonds will see their suitable growing range expand from 73 percent of the continental U.S. from 1971-2000 to 93 percent from 2041–2070. Kiwifruit will bump up from 23 percent to 32 percent during the same period, and oranges from 5 percent to 8 percent.
So the shift in hardiness zones is good news for perennial cash crops in the U.S., but not necessarily good news overall for food security in North America, or globally. “On the plus side, if we can expand the range over which we grow crops, that’s a good thing,” says Parker. But, she adds, “On the flip side, you also allow for the expansion of weeds and pests.”

The permafrost line has moved 80 miles north in 50 years in parts of Canada
As global air temperatures rise, permafrost is retreating north, moving as far 
as 80 miles poleward over a half-century in parts of Canada. 
  Source: Berkeley Earth. Graphic by Katie Peek.
As the planet warms, the Arctic is feeling it the most: Temperatures in northern regions are rising at about twice the global average. That’s having a huge impact on the region’s permafrost, ground that typically stays frozen all year round. As the line delineating an average temperature of 0 degrees Celsius moves north, so too does the permafrost line. “They roughly track together,” says Kevin Schafer, a permafrost expert at the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Permafrost isn’t particularly well documented: It’s underground, so out of sight of satellites, and the Arctic is only sparsely covered with meteorological stations. “There aren’t a lot of measurements that far north,” says Schafer. That means much of the evidence of permafrost thaw so far is either anecdotal or limited to specific well-monitored regions. One study in northern Canada found that the permafrost around James Bay had retreated 80 miles north over 50 years. Studies of ground temperatures in boreholes have also revealed frightening rates of change, says Schafer. “What we’re seeing is 20 meters down, it’s increasing as high as 1-2 degrees C per decade,” he says. “In the permafrost world that’s a really rapid change. Extremely rapid.”
The future looks similarly dire. One study predicts that by 2100, the area covered by permafrost might shrink from nearly 4 million square miles to less than 0.4 million; most of Alaska and the southern tip of Greenland would be permafrost-free.
The impacts are expected to be huge on both a local and global level. Right now, permafrost acts like cement, keeping the ground firm and impermeable to water. As it thaws, buildings and infrastructure collapse. In the northern Russian city of Norilsk, buildings are already tilting, cracking, and becoming condemned. In Bethel, Alaska, roads are buckling and homes collapsing. Many of the Arctic’s uncountable small lakes will also drain away. “That’s going to have a massive impact on the [region’s] ecology,” says Schafer. Meanwhile, the thaw will also release vast amounts of climate-warming methane into the atmosphere.

The Wheat Belt is pushing poleward at up to 160 miles per decade
Between 1990 and 2015, production dropped in much of Australia's Wheat Belt 
due to drier than average conditions. The areas that disappear from this map are 
those where output dropped 50 percent or more. 
Source: Hochman, Gobbett, & Horan, Global Change Biology, 2017. Graphic by Katie Peek.
Australia, renowned for its interior deserts and coastal beaches, is also one of the planet’s largest wheat exporters — just after Canada, Russia, and the U.S. But the arable land at the nation’s southern edge is shrinking, and its potential for growing wheat declining.
In the 1860s, surveyor George Goyder drew a line to show where the edge of Australia’s arable land ended. More than a century later, Goyder’s line is still considered an important feature in determining the country’s “cropping belt.” But climate change is making that land drier, effectively pushing the line further south.
Any given patch of land has a “theoretical potential” for the amount of wheat it can support, given its soil, the climate, and other factors. Reductions in rainfall and warmer temperatures have already reduced the theoretical potential of southern Australia by 27 percent since 1990. So far, farmers have managed to adapt to the changing conditions and squeeze the same amount of wheat out of their lands. By tweaking things such as their seeds and harvesting practices, they have gone from harvesting 38 percent of their theoretical maximum in 1990 to 55 percent in 2015. But that can only go on so long — farmers can typically only reach about 80 percent of any given parcel of land’s maximum potential. Once they hit that limit, Australian farmers probably won’t be able to counteract the effects of the changing climate any longer. Zvi Hochman, of Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), says he expects to see actual yields start to drop around 2040. Places like the farming community of Orroroo, currently right on top of Goyder’s line, will be “significantly impacted,” writes Julia Piantadosi of the University of South Australia in Adelaide — they won’t be able to keep farming the way they are doing today.
North America is seeing the opposite phenomenon: Its arable land is romping northward, expanding the wheat belt into higher and higher latitudes. Scientists project it could go from about 55 degrees north today to as much as 65 degrees North — the latitude of Fairbanks, Alaska — by 2050. That’s about 160 miles per decade. That’s not all good news, as the southern edge gets drier, hotter, and less agriculturally productive. One study showed that U.S. farmers will likely have to change the strains of wheat they grow, while France and Turkey will have to invest heavily in irrigation systems. In Asia, half of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, which account for 15 percent of global wheat production, are predicted to become heat-stressed by 2050, significantly cutting yields.

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30/10/2018

Climate Change And Renewables Driving New Mining Boom, Mining Chief Says

Fairfax - Cole Latimer

The mining industry is addressing climate change head-on as it prepares for a new boom driven by renewable energy demand, a global mining council chief says.
The mining industry has been under fire following a recent UN report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which said Australia must limit and eventually phase out its thermal coal mining to help fight rising global temperatures.
ICMM chief Tom Butler says demand for energy will drive a new resources boom for copper and lithium. Credit: ICMM
The mining industry and Australian government pushed back, saying mining has a long role to play in the country.
Speaking ahead of the International Mining and Resources Conference on Tuesday, International Council on Mining and Metals chief executive Tom Butler told Fairfax Media mining and a carbon price are both needed to achieve the IPCC’s climate goals, supporting a renewable energy boom that will drive more mining.
“Our materials will be critical to enabling the decarbonisation of the planet,” Mr Butler said.
“The mining sector has a critical role to play in the sustainability effort. We can choose whether to be a leader or follow in that."
Mr Butler said the ICMM has also called for a carbon price. He said in order to achieve the two degree Celsius reduction in global temperatures the world will need more copper and lithium to support renewable technologies.
"If we're to achieve 2 degrees Celsius, we'll need around 20 million tonnes more copper and around ten times the amount of lithium - for batteries - that is currently mined to supply demand, and that isn't including electric vehicles," Mr Butler said.
Minerals Council of Australia chief executive Tania Constable refuted claims the mining industry was in denial over climate change but said Australian coal could play a role in addressing it.
"I don't think there are companies that are climate change deniers, and they understand the risk of it to industry," Ms Constable told Fairfax Media.
"While a value on carbon is important, you have to take multiple avenues, and one single way is not the best way to address it."
It comes as the mining industry highlights its alignment with the United Nations sustainable development goals, a series of global aspirations to improve society and environmental conservation to 2030.
Glencore has been singled out for its rehabilitation of its former coal mines.
In the report commissioned by the Minerals Council of Australia, it examined how Australia’s mining industry was promoting gender equality, education, economic growth, and water and environmental conservation.
The report focused on the work of Glencore’s coal business in rehabilitating more than 1000 hectares of former mining land at Mangoola, in the New South Wales Hunter Valley, and turning its Liddell coal mine into cattle grazing land.
It also covered BHP’s biodiversity conservation project and its $13.4 million land conservation operation in Tasmania.
“This report is the first step in our work to further understand, listen and import how Australia’s minerals sector work to support strong, resilient and inclusive communities across the country,” Ms Constable said.

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Clean Energy Is Cheap, Surging – And Headed For A Fall

The Guardian - 

Solar and wind projects are transforming Australia’s power grid, but unclear policies will slow new investments
Stage 1 of the Bungala Solar Farm, outside Port Augusta in regional South Australia. Photograph: Che Chorley for the Guardian
The relentlessly corrosive nature of political debate about climate change can sometimes mask that this is a golden moment for the clean energy industry in Australia.
A near-constant stream of investment announcements suggests a barrier has been knocked down such that leading renewable technologies, so long dependent on public subsidies, have assumed market supremacy.
In the Pilbara, Macquarie Bank has joined a proposed $22bn project that plans to use solar and wind to run local mines, create “green” hydrogen energy for north Asia and possibly export electricity to Indonesia. In regional South Australia, the British billionaire industrialist, Sanjeev Gupta, has said he considered building a coal plant to run the Whyalla steelworks he bought last year, but decided it was cheaper to throw roughly $1.5bn at solar, pumped hydro storage, battery storage and co-generation (creating energy from waste gas) as he adopts his “green steel” model. Outside Townsville, zinc refiner Sun Metals recently opened Australia’s first large-scale solar farm built by a major energy user to service part of its own needs and feed the grid.
The Clean Energy Council lists 69 large-scale projects across the country that have recently reached “financial close” and are either under construction or presumably about to be. They should mean $15.6bn investment and add 10,978 megawatts of renewable energy capacity to the system. These projects – just those the council knows of – are in addition to the 30 new clean energy plants that started operating in the first nine months of the year. Contracts are being signed at historically cheap prices – a reported $52 per megawatt-hour for the giant Stockyard Hill wind farm in central Victoria, for example.
Meanwhile, rooftop solar panels are being installed at an astonishing rate. In May, the head of the Australian Energy Market Operator, Audrey Zibelman, said six panels were going up across the continent every minute, adding the capacity of a large coal power station each year. The consumer watchdog recently recommended incentive schemes for small-scale systems be wound back. Some in the energy industry have suggested there will soon be more solar power coming into the grid than Australia can use but a new study by consultants Green Energy Markets, which examined the amount of solar power expected every 30 minutes out to 2021, rejects this idea. The energy minister, Angus Taylor, says the federal incentive scheme will stay.
The investment avalanche is driving an unprecedented transformation of the electricity grid. At the time of writing, clean energy had met 21.8% of national electricity market demand over the past week, suggesting the country is on the cusp of meeting the 2020 renewable energy target of about 23% ahead of schedule. The Clean Energy Council’s chief executive, Kane Thornton, says the momentum is massive; Green Energy Markets suggest it could mean renewable generation hits 33.3% by 2020. Analyst and advocate Simon Holmes à Court says it is likely as much clean energy capacity will be built over the next two years as over the previous 40.
In July, the market operator found a business-as-usual path, without policies ramping up, was likely to lead to about 46% clean energy by 2030. It underlined the hollowness of the government’s now-dumped pledge to introduce a national energy guarantee to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from electricity by 26% below 2005 levels over that timeframe, and implied Labor’s 50% renewable energy target would take little effort. (Both targets are less than the change in coal use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests is necessary for Australia to play its part in limiting global warming.)
But while the direction is clear, the picture is murkier than this moment suggests. There are signs investment may soon slow markedly.
Most of the investment is being driven by the renewable energy target, which peaks in 2020 and stays at that level for the following decade. The spending to meet the target has come in a rush lately, mainly because then-prime minister Tony Abbott commissioned a review by businessman and climate sceptic Dick Warbuton, who wanted to end it. The uncertainty triggered an investment strike that lasted the better part of two years before the target was ultimately reduced.
But the target has done its job. With no policy to replace it, the incentive to build clean energy plants is expected to fall off significantly. This is already being seen in wholesale energy futures markets, where it is playing a role in prices trending upwards again. There is consistent evidence, from the market operator down, that it is cheaper to build variable clean energy with “firming” support than alternatives. New performance standards requiring investors in areas flooded with renewable energy to install expensive grid-stabilising technology needed to smooth the transition are not expected to change this. But demand for electricity is barely growing. Without a policy that gives the industry a map for when new clean generation will be needed, new plants are unlikely to come online until coal plant owners announce more closures.
There are exceptions. Tristan Edis, a Green Energy Markets analyst, points to companies signing contracts with state governments: Victoria recently announced six wind and solar farms had won contracts under its first renewable energy tender after a similar round for battery storage, and Queensland has promised to soon follow with the result of its auction. Also, some large energy users with deep pockets may build or fund their own generation needs to hedge against market costs, as Sun Metals did in Queensland. But these are investment spikes, not maps.
“Beyond that there is no appetite for the major energy retailers to do deals, so I expect we’re not going to see the large-scale investments,” Edis says. “Instead of seeing thousands of megawatts of new capacity a year we may see a few hundred.”
Other energy system experts agree. Holmes à Court, from the Energy Transition Hub at the University of Melbourne, says it is little understood that consumers are no longer subsidising new developments under the renewable energy target through their bills. Long-term pricing contracts being signed between wind and solar farm owners and energy retailers are now setting such low prices that large-scale generation certificates – documents that retailers must buy and hand in to the government as proof they are meeting their renewable obligation – are effectively being thrown in for free. The target’s role recently has been to provide investment confidence to ensure that long-term contracts are signed. Holmes à Court says without it or a new policy to replace it uncertainty associated with selling electricity on the spot market could increase the risk margin on finance or make a project “unbankable” until the next coal plant closes and pushes up the wholesale electricity price.
AGL has announced it will shut and replace its Liddell black coal plant in NSW in 2022 (and copped no shortage of opprobrium from the Coalition for doing so). Yallourn, a brown coal station in Victoria, could be squeezed out by the large-scale solar rush already announced in that state. But in terms of closures that will spark new investment the timeframe is unclear, especially given the government hopes to extend the life of existing coal plants and possibly underwrite new ones.
This is why interested parties from across the spectrum – the energy industry, business, consumer and welfare groups and climate activists – have been united in calling for a bipartisan policy. While Taylor has dismissed claims the government should try to eliminate uncertainty as naïve, and the gap between the major parties has widened to a gulf since Scott Morrison replaced Malcolm Turnbull, those invested in the debate want the best chance for the transition to happen as smoothly and cheaply as possible for everyone.
“Basically, as Audrey Zibelman says, we can have a managed transition or a chaotic disruption,” Holmes à Court says. “In a chaotic disruption people get hurt, whether they are consumers, employers or prime ministers.”

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Best Way To Fight Climate Change? Put An Honest Price On Carbon

New York Times - Editorial Board

Washington State voters will decide next week whether to impose a fee on carbon emissions. We hope they do.
Lily Padula
Will voters in Washington State breathe new life into the idea of taxing carbon emissions? Plenty of people worried about the earth’s future certainly hope so.
Climate scientists and economists have long argued that the single best way to slow global warming is to put a price on greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and raise that price over time, thus creating a sensible market incentive to reduce emissions and invest in cleaner energy sources. Carbon pricing was also high on the list of urgent recommendations of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which warned in a major report two weeks ago that without swift action to control emissions the world will begin suffering global warming’s worst consequences — including, but not limited to, the displacement of millions of people by drought and sea-level rise — as early as 2040, much sooner than previously forecast.
It is thus encouraging that in this time of torpor and climate denial at the highest levels of the federal government, voters in the state of Washington will soon be given the chance to adopt, by initiative, a carbon pricing plan that would charge polluters like refineries a fee for emitting greenhouse gases. This would be what economists call a Pigovian tax, after the British economist Arthur Pigou. In this case, the fee would factor in the now unaccounted for costs of more frequent and intense hurricanes, wildfires, droughts and other natural disasters linked to climate change. In the words of George Frampton, a senior environmental adviser to Bill Clinton and co-founder of a group that favors carbon taxes, Partnership for Responsible Growth, it’s an overdue stab at “honestly pricing carbon,” which industry has until now been able to hurl into the atmosphere pretty much for free.
Polling so far suggests a close vote. Opponents of the measure, including such big oil companies as BP and Chevron, have raised more than $25 million to get people to vote no; in addition, Washington voters soundly defeated a carbon tax the last time it appeared on the ballot, in 2016. But other powerful forces, including Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, the former New York mayor, have ponied up in support this time.
If the proposal, Initiative 1631, wins — as we hope it does — the result could ripple beyond Washington’s boundaries. No state can match California’s impressively broad suite of clean-energy programs, but the initiative, if successful, could catapult Jay Inslee, Washington’s governor, into the climate leadership role long occupied by the outgoing California governor, Jerry Brown. More important, it could provide a template, or at least valuable lessons, for other states to follow; and (let’s dream for a moment) it might even encourage Congress to take action on a national program.
Initiative 1631 is substantially different from the measure that failed spectacularly two years ago, and which Mr. Inslee voted against. That measure was advertised as revenue-neutral (meaning no net gain to the government). The money raised through carbon taxes would have been mostly returned to state residents through a reduction in the sales tax. This was intended to appeal to conservatives who didn’t want the tax to underwrite new government programs, but it turned out that many conservatives, like a lot of others, wanted real programs for their money, not just a tax shift.
Initiative 1631 aims to do that. On the revenue side, it would impose a $15 per metric ton fee on carbon emissions starting in 2020, increasing by $2 per year until the state’s 2035 carbon reduction goals are met. The state estimates that the levy would generate $2.2 billion in its first five years. The initiative’s supporters say that gasoline prices would rise about 13 cents a gallon in 2020, and would, overall, cost most citizens about $10 a month.
As for spending the money, about 70 percent of the proceeds would be invested in projects to accelerate the state’s transition from fossil fuels — public transportation, energy efficiency, wind and solar plants, and so on — and the rest on protecting forests and streams and shielding low-income ratepayers from higher electricity bills. There are exemptions — for the state’s only operating coal-fired power plant, which is scheduled to close in 2025, and for the state’s largest employer, Boeing, which competes in foreign markets. All in all, the initiative covers about 80 percent of Washington’s climate-warming emissions.
Groups that opposed the 2016 initiative, like the Sierra Club, have flocked to this one. As David Roberts has noted in Vox, “Tying the revenue from a dirty-energy tax to clean-energy investments is intuitively appealing.” He has also noted, however, that carbon pricing is no cure-all.
The dream among many carbon-pricing enthusiasts is that a smoothly functioning carbon tax will eliminate the need for messy government regulations like those imposed by the Obama administration after Congress failed to pass a cap-and-trade program. Carbon pricing would help, and could do wonders to drive private investment toward cleaner energy. But it won’t eliminate the need for government involvement; as the I.P.C.C. report made clear, rapidly decarbonizing a global economy is a gigantic undertaking, and will require government involvement and an array of responses.
And in the meantime, of course, and indeed into the foreseeable future, all present strategies to reduce emissions must continue, including the kinds of things Mr. Trump refuses to do — build out the electric vehicle fleet, reduce emissions from power plants, clamp down on methane pollution from oil and gas wells.
As of now, about 40 governments around the world, including the European Union and California, have put a price on carbon, some through cap-and-trade programs, with an average price per ton of $8, nowhere near the level the I.P.C.C. thinks necessary (at least $135 a ton by 2030, if not much higher) to cause meaningful reductions. But lately the idea of carbon taxes is showing signs of life in many parts of the world. Portugal launched a carbon tax in 2015, and Chile followed in 2017, and just last week Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister, announced a sweeping plan to tax industrial emitters.
A yes vote in Washington State would add further momentum — and possibly focus a few minds in the other Washington.

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Lethal Heating is a citizens' initiative