Climate, The Crisis That Threatens Our Political Duopoly

Fairfax - John Hewson

When does an issue or policy challenge become more important than political party affiliation? When does a national or global issue outweigh the importance to a voter of their individual struggles?
These are becoming increasingly important questions as support for, and belief in, traditional political parties wanes, and voters are increasingly frustrated and disappointed by their political representatives and the so-called democratic processes of government.

Climate change ... any party that refuses to deal with it forfeits the right to govern. Credit: Bloomberg

In recent days in the United Kingdom we have seen several important resignations (12 at last count) from both the Conservative and Labour parties, over Brexit and other issues, which will test the UK’s ingrained political duopoly. Of course, this is not the first time the duopoly has been challenged – recall the breakaway of the Social Democratic Party in 1981.
However, given the more recent “success” of En Marche in France, and of Ciudadanos in Spain, and what is effectively the existential threat by Brexit to Britain’s political establishment, the exit of nine MPs from Labour and three from the Conservatives (with the real possibility of more to come),  it must be close to a watershed moment.
To be clear, members of this new Independent Group had a variety of motivations for leaving – four because of alleged anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, as well as objections to the party’s left-wing bias, and some also in fear of being de-selected. However, the Conservative defectors, and all but one from Labour, want another “people’s vote” on Brexit. It is instructive that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn then moved to favour a second referendum, while Theresa May seeks to delay another parliamentary vote, hoping the Europeans will “blink”.
Given that the EU would still clearly prefer that the UK not leave, it is unlikely to offer any significant concessions, so it is hard to see how May can ever win a parliamentary vote on her withdrawal bill. Indeed, she continues to lose procedural votes that work to reduce her negotiating authority. No vote would mean that the UK would still leave on March 29, a “hard Brexit”, which most don’t want. The hope of the UK establishment is that a concensus emerges for a second referendum, or for withdrawing the leave application altogether. Much will depend on whether there are further defections.
It is clear that an issue such as Brexit is not only divisive across the UK community, but also within each of the major parties, important enough to threaten the traditional party duopoly. Many say, or hope, it can’t happen, but it may.
Party unity has been a significant issue in Australia's political history, but disunity has probably been more about individuals than issues, especially since World War II. The most notable exception was the ALP/DLP split of the mid-1950s over communism and communist influence. But Gorton v McMahon, Howard v Peacock, Hawke v Keating, Rudd v Gillard v Rudd, and Abbott v Turnbull were mostly just about personalities, occasionally dressed under a policy cloak.
However, over the post-war period there has been an increasingly significant voter drift against both major parties. In the late 1940s, together, they attracted about 95 per cent of the vote. Now it's in the mid-70s, at best. Most recently, the drift has manifested in support for high-profile independents, a trend that will gather momentum at the May election.
This is also occurring as both leaders have net negative poll ratings, and the electorate is genuinely faced with the choice between two lessers, both parties and individuals.
While there are multiple motivations, a principle reason for the voter drift has been dissatisfaction with the two major parties, which have become increasingly self-absorbed internally while focusing more on point-scoring against, and blame-shifting to, each other, rather than governing, and particularly meeting the bigger policy challenges. Conspicuous disloyalty, interminable scandals, opportunistic, short-term policy thought bubbles, cynicism, and so on, have led voters to disengage, stop listening, or protest where and when they can.
The economic narrative embraced by both sides doesn’t match the lived, and increasingly difficult, experience of voters, while the big issues they realistically expect their representatives to handle are simply denied, ignored, or fiddled with.
In all this, individual members are increasingly under considerable pressure to toe the line, to rabbit on with the party line, as summarised in the dot-points emailed to them each morning, even if they fundamentally disagree. It is a daily farce in the media. It becomes harder and harder to defend the indefensible, especially for those in marginal seats where their feedback is contrary, where their support is waning.
Some members have already broken out of the two-party structure – Cory Bernardi, Clive Palmer. Banks, most noticeably, joining significant independents, Cathy McGowan, Rebekha Sharkey, Andrew Wilkie, Kerryn Phelps and Bob Katter. Independents could certainly hold the “power of the balance” in the Lower House after the next election.
However, could climate policy be our Brexit? Could it threaten our LNP/ALP duopoly? It is a divisive issue within both the LNP and the ALP, against the background of some 70 to 80 per cent of voters consistently wanting decisive government-led action on the essential transition to a low-carbon society, and to renewables.
Advocates for a long-term climate action plan across the two parties are much closer than they are to the deniers, coal advocates and intransigents in their own parties.
We have already lost nearly three decades on this extremely important issue, squandering billions of dollars of investment and probably hundreds of thousands of jobs. We have already kicked the issue to our kids and grand kids. Our two parties and our political system have failed us.
Surely, those unable to rise to the climate challenge forfeit the right to govern?

*John Hewson is a professor at the Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, and a former Liberal opposition leader.

Links

• Scott Morrison's pea-and-thimble trick
• Coalition too slow getting clarity on climate change, says Liberal Party president
• 'Astounded': former fire chief unloads on politicians over climate change inaction
• 'Line in the sand': NSW Labor plans blitz to undo environmental 'mess'
• 'Blows others out of the park': High hopes for new type of battery
• 'It's been extreme': Australia's summer smashes seasonal heat records
• Climate, the crisis that threatens our political duopoly
• Labor yet to get advice on Paris 'accounting trick' it refuses to rule out

Early Sowing Can Help Save Australia’s Wheat From Climate Change

The Conversation - James Hunt

Timing is of the essence when it comes to growing wheat. Author provided

Climate change has already reduced yields for Australian wheat growers, thanks to increasingly unreliable rains and hostile temperatures. But our new research offers farmers a way to adapt.
By sowing much earlier than they currently do, wheat growers can potentially increase yields again. However, our study published today in Nature Climate Change shows that to do this they need new varieties that allow them more leeway to vary their sowing dates in the face of increasingly erratic rainfall.
Sowing wheat is a matter of delicate timing. Seeds of current varieties need to be planted at just such a time so that, months later, the plants flower during a window of just 1-2 weeks, known as the optimal flowering period.
In Australia’s wheat belt this window is generally in early spring. At this time the soil is moist after the cool, wet winter; days are getting longer and sunnier; maximum temperatures are still relatively low; and frosts are less frequent. If crops flower outside the optimal window, yields decline sharply.

Crops and colonies
When Europeans first started trying to grow wheat in Australia, they used varieties that were suited to the cool, wet climate of northern Europe, where the optimal flowering period is in summer. These varieties were much too slow to flower in Australian conditions, and yields were very low. Wheat breeder William Farrer used faster-developing wheats from India to create the Federation variety, which revolutionised wheat production in Australia, earning Farrer the ultimate honour of having a pub named after him.
Federation wheat is a “spring wheat”, moving rapidly through its life cycle regardless of when it is planted. If you sow it earlier, it flowers earlier. For more than a century Australian wheat breeders have bred spring wheats, allowing growers to adjust their sowing time to get their crops to flower during the optimal period. Anzac Day has traditionally been the start of sowing season, after autumn rains have wet the soil enough for seeds to germinate.
Here is where climate change is causing a problem. If farmers sow later than mid-May, the wheat is likely to miss its spring flowering window. But southern Australia has experienced declining April and May rainfall, making it harder for growers to sow and establish crops at the right time. This in turn means crops flower too late the following spring, meaning yields are reduced by drought and heat.
Growers could start sowing earlier, and use stored soil water from summer rain (which hasn’t declined and has even increased at some locations), but current spring wheat varieties would flower too early to yield well. For farmers to sow earlier, they need a different sort of wheat in which development is slowed down by an environmental cue. One such environmental cue is called vernalisation. Plants that are sensitive to vernalisation will not flower until they have experienced a period of cold temperatures. These strains are thus called “winter wheats”.
Ironically enough, the wheat varieties that Europeans first brought to Australia were winter wheats, but they were further slowed by sensitivity to day length which made them too slow to reach the earlier flowering times needed in the hotter, drier colony.
But this problem can be sidestepped by using a “fast winter wheat”, which is sensitive to vernalisation but not to day length. Our previous research showed that this type of wheat was very suited to Australian conditions – it can be sown early but still flower at the right time. In fact, the vernalisation requirement means that this wheat can be sown over a much broader range of dates and experience fluctuating temperatures, and still flower at the right time.

Yielding results
In our new research, we developed different lines of wheat that varied in their response to vernalisation and day length, and grew them across the wheat belt to compare which ones would yield best at earlier sowing times.
We found that a fast winter wheat performed best over most of the wheatbelt, and on average yielded 10% more than spring wheat when they flower at the same time.
We then used computer simulations to investigate how these crops would perform at the scale of an entire farm. Our results showed that if Australian growers had access to adapted winter varieties in addition to spring varieties, they could start sowing earlier in seasons where there was an opportunity. If the rains come early, farmers can use the winter wheat; if they come late they can switch to the spring wheat, which yields better than winter wheat at late sowing times.
This would mean that more area of crop would be planted on time, and yields would increase as a result. If realised, this could increase national wheat production by about 20%, or roughly 7.1 million tonnes.
The main hurdle is that growers do not currently have access to suitable winter wheats. Breeding companies have started work on them, but it will be several years before suitably high-quality varieties become available.
Australian growers urgently need to keep pace with climate change. Although Australia only produces 4% of the world’s wheat, it accounts for 10% of exports and is thus important in determining global supply and price. If global wheat supply is low, prices rise, and it becomes unaffordable for many of the world’s poorest people, potentially causing malnutrition and civil unrest. Steeply rising wheat prices were among the factors behind the food riots that broke out in more than 40 countries in 2007-08, which helped to trigger the Arab Spring uprisings of 2010-12.
The world’s poorest people deserve to be able to buy wheat. But Australian wheat farmers also need to earn a decent living and stay internationally competitive. The only way to meet all these needs is to keep production costs low – and increasing yields by sowing the right wheat cultivars for Australia’s changing climate is one way to go about it.

Links

• Climate trends account for stalled wheat yields in Australia since 1990
• Changing climate has stalled Australian wheat yields: study
• Australia's farming future: can our wheat keep feeding the world?
• Missed opportunity: farm sector sceptical of PM's climate policy
• Climate Solutions Fund must help farmers adapt to change, more work needed on natural capital value
• Farmers For Climate Action

Australia Breaks Weather Records With Hottest Ever Summer

The Guardian - Naaman Zhou

2018-19 season tops temperature highs across the country, exceeding previous record set six years ago

Australians sweltered through back-to-back heatwaves and battled bushfires across the country over the 2018-19 summer. Photograph: David Crosling/EPA 

Australia has endured its hottest summer ever, according to the Bureau of Meteorology, breaking the previous record set six years ago.
The 2018-19 summer, which produced near 50C days and topped temperature highs across the country, has officially exceeded the previous record set in 2012-13, which was 1.28C above what is considered normal. Climate analysts say it falls into a pattern of human-induced global warming.
January alone had already been confirmed as the hottest month ever recorded in Australia, with a mean temperature across the nation of 30.8C, which was 2.9C above the average for January temperatures (calculated between 1961–1990) of 27.9C.
On Thursday, the BoM revealed the whole season was officially the hottest ever recorded.
While exact figures are not yet confirmed, the bureau said this summer’s mean temperature was at least 2C above the 27.5C benchmark of what is considered normal, based on 1961-1990.

“Summer has been our warmest summer on record in terms of maximum temperatures, in terms of minimum temperatures and in terms of mean temperatures,” said Andrew Watkins, the BoM’s manager of long-range forecasting.
The statistics will come as no surprise to Australians who sweltered through back-to-back heatwaves and battled bushfires across the country.
In January alone, Adelaide broke its all-time heat record with a 46.6C day, Port Augusta broke its record with 48.9C, and then broke it again with 49.5C a week later.
The small New South Wales town of Noona also broke the record for the highest overnight minimum ever recorded, with a night that never dropped below 39.5C. And in Cloncurry in Queensland, residents endured 43 days in a row over 40C, Watkins said.
This summer’s extreme temperatures had been predicted since late last year, with the BoM’s climate outlook forecasting a drier, hotter summer due to the El Niño weather event, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the effect of global warming.
The “long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures” was a factor in the hotter-than-average summer, the report said in October.
On Thursday, the BoM also updated its outlook for the coming autumn, saying there were “very high odds” that hot, dry conditions would continue.
Watkins warned that while some high rainfall events could occur, it would largely be bad news for drought-stricken farmers. “I wish we had better news than that,” he said.
Also on Thursday, Victorian health authorities warned of a late summer heatwave that would bring 40C temperatures on Saturday.
The bureau has forecast a heatwave across most of Victoria over the weekend, and Victoria’s chief health officer issued a health alert for parts of the state from Thursday to Saturday.
Pregnant women, the elderly, children and people with medical conditions have been warned to take care.
Victoria’s emergency management commissioner, Andrew Crisp, also warned there was a high fire risk, peaking at a severe fire danger rating in parts on Saturday.

Links

• Floods, fire and drought: Australia, a country in the grip of extreme weather bingo
• January was Australia's hottest month since records began
• Floods, Fire And Drought: Australia, A Country In The Grip Of Extreme Weather Bingo
• Australia Swelters Through Hottest Month On Record, With January Mean Temperature Exceeding 30c
• 2018 Was The Fourth Warmest Year On Record -- And More Evidence Of A ‘New Normal,’ Scientist Group Reports

Australian Headlines Are Designed To Scare People Into Not Acting On Climate Change

The Guardian - Erwin Jackson

As we head into another cycle of climate change politics beware the economic doomsayers

 Whenever Australia starts to have a serious conversation about addressing climate change headlines appear in newspapers of an economic apocalypse. Photograph: folkeandersen.com/Alamy Stock Photo/Alamy Stock Photo

Whenever Australia starts to have a serious conversation about addressing climate change, headlines appear in newspapers of an economic apocalypse. This happened again in the Australian this week based on work by a long-standing economic modeller of climate policy, Brian Fisher.
So, what do economic modelling exercises tell us of the impact of reducing Australia’s contribution to global warming, and more importantly, what do they not? Should we cower in fear of action or embrace the inevitable change and manage the human and economic costs of transition?
Firstly, economic modelling results are not predictions. They are based on hypothetical future worlds. Economists try to capture the dynamics of economic systems in their models to understand the relative impact of different policy options. This means they are always wrong because economists can’t predict the future. Economic modellers are not the crystal ball gazers we read about in fantasy books.
Leading energy commentator and founder of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Michael Liebreich, sums this up nicely. His graph shows what US government energy models have been projecting over the years compared with what is happening in the real world. Over and over again models have failed to capture how fast the cost of clean energy has been falling and the scale at which it would be deployed.
This does not mean the economic models are not useful, it just means they should be used to test the relative impact of different policy options and not be presented as predictions of the future. They have a long history of overestimating the costs of environmental regulations because people and markets can innovate faster than they often expect.
Secondly, the way economic modelling results are presented is very important. Industry groups in particular like to attach themselves to particular results and scream that thousands of jobs will be lost, or wages will be slashed. This is designed to scare people into not acting on climate change by making them feel insecure in their lives. The headlines in the Australian did just this.
It is also dishonest because they also don’t clearly put the results in the context of the broader change in the economy. (David Gruen, one of Australia’s top economic officials gave a great speech about this in 2008 to illustrate how long this silliness has been going on.)
To illustrate my point, the economic impacts Fischer has projected for different emissions targets are in the same ballpark of those projected for work commissioned by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade a few years ago. This work also presented results in a similar way to the Australian. However, what is also showed is that the economy, jobs, income, etc continued to grow regardless. We keep getting richer and have more jobs, we just do so at a slightly slower rate.
Thirdly, because Australia exports a lot of coal and other emissions-intensive products to other countries, what they do matters an awful lot to the Australian economy. As other nations reduce emissions, demand for these products falls regardless of what we do. It has been established for some time that a significant part of the economic impacts of climate change on Australia comes from things we can’t control and this is generally presented in the results (see here for an example). While he does not report this, Brian Fisher knows this because he spearheaded economic analysis in the 1990s that was targeted at convincing Japan, one of our major coal markets, it would be too costly for them to reduce emissions.
Lastly, whenever these headlines are blasted across the papers one point is always lost: these results don’t include the cost of climate change itself. This summer, we have again seen a glimmer of what climate change will mean for Australia. Recent economic analysis indicates the benefits of limiting global warming far outweigh the cost of doing so, in one case by 70-1 (a good summary is here). (Again, this is something Fisher has considered in the past as he once said it would be cheaper to move people from the Pacific and put them in condos on the Gold Coast than act on climate change.)
So, as we head into another cycle of climate change politics in Canberra, beware the economic doomsayers and the threats from industry groups that credible action will be a “wrecking ball” to the economy. To be glib, no one said saving the Earth would be free. Acting on climate change will have costs but the costs of not acting will be far, far larger. Better that we come together and manage a fair and effective transition than continuing to delay and pay a much, much greater bill later.

• Erwin Jackson is director of policy at Investor Group on Climate Change.

Links

• 11 Things Climate Change 'Dismissive' People Say On Social Media
• Here Are Two Big Things That Were Wrong With Climate Change Coverage In 2018
• Vaccinate Public Against Science Misinformation, Researchers Urge
• How The Fossil Fuel Industry Got The Media To Think Climate Change Was Debatable
• The Australian's Continued Support Of Climate Change Denialism
• Climate Change: Using Satire To Communicate Science
• Climate Change Is No Joking Matter. Except, This Week, It Was.
• News Corp’s Contempt For Climate Science Revealed In Its Coverage Of Last Week’s IPCC Report

'Everyone Loves Solar': Climate Action Heats Up As NSW Election Issue

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

NSW voters, including conservative ones, want the state government to step up action on climate change, including boosting renewable energy, two separate polling sets show.
A statewide Essential survey conducted February 6-11 for the Nature Conservation Council of 544 respondents found 51 per cent were more likely to back a party boosting clean energy and 18 per cent less likely. Among those identifying as Liberal or National supporters, the ratio was 43 per cent in favour and a quarter against.

Solar farms are rolling out at a record rate and voters would support much larger levels of renewable energy, surveys have found. Credit: Rolfo Brenner

Three separate uComms surveys for Greenpeace, each of more than 600 respondents conducted in marginal seats of Ballina, Coogee, and Penrith, found higher support for renewable energy.
In Penrith, for instance, 60 per cent of Liberal voters said they were more likely to support a party investing in renewables and 30.7 per cent less likely. In Coogee, 52.1 per cent of Liberal voters were more likely to back a party with such policies, and 38.6 per cent against.
In Ballina, 65 per cent of National supporters agreed rooftop solar and batteries would cut household power bills for homeowners and renters, while 32.8 per cent disagreed.
The polling comes amid another torrid period of extremes. NSW smashed heat records in January, with temperatures almost six degrees about average and two degrees above the previous record set in bushfire-scorched January 1939.
Much of the state remains in severe drought – with 2019 off to a dry start amid rainfall levels typically less than a fifth of normal levels – sending reservoir levels tumbling and contributing to a series of mass fish kills and algal bloom outbreaks in the Darling and other rivers.
While climate scientists have yet to determine the role climate change is having, the background warming of more than a degree over the past century across Australia is raising the likelihood of heatwaves. Climate models also point to a long-term drying trend across southern Australia, including NSW, with more to come.

'No policy'
The onus to demonstrate action to tackle climate change appears to fall heavier on the Coalition if the polling and last December's federal byelection for the Sydney seat of Wentworth are any guide, Kate Smolski, chief executive of the Nature Conservation Council, said.
"Voters deserted the Liberals in Wentworth over climate change, and [this month's] poll shows that it's a statewide phenomenon," Ms Smolski said.
"This is bad news for the Berejiklian government, which after eight years of Coalition rule still doesn't have a climate change policy or a renewable energy target."
Liberal ministers declined to comment to the Sun-Herald, but Niall Blair, the deputy Nationals leader who has lately been at the frontline facing communities hit by drought and fish kills, has been outspoken about the need to act on climate.
"Many people in our communities are really seeing something they haven't seen before," Mr Blair said. "They can clearly see what's happening on their own properties."
Labor is banking of wooing voters with its plan to add 7 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity and expand the take-up of solar panels by half a million homes.
"That's the biggest roll-out of renewable energy in Australian history," Adam Searle, Labor's climate and energy spokesman, said.
If implemented, clean energy's share would triple to 40 per cent by 2030 from less than 13 per cent now, he says.

The other two-thirds
But the energy sector accounts for roughly a third of Australia's greenhouse gas emissions. While both major parties have an ambition to achieve carbon neutrality in NSW by 2050, they have offered few policies.
By contrast, the Greens plan to introduce a carbon change bill, including a broad carbon price, to reach the net-zero emissions goal by 2040.
"We need targets with teeth if we are going to actually decarbonise," Cate Faehrmann, Greens environment spokeswoman, said. "That is why I have developed legislation which sets binding targets to reach net-zero emissions by 2040 and gives ordinary citizens the power to prosecute government ministers who are not serious about meeting these targets."
Jeremy Buckingham, the former Greens and now independent MP, said policies are needed to tackle emissions from agriculture, industry and transport.
"Everyone loves solar panels, so we get policies focused on popular renewable energy, but with only a few years left to act, we need comprehensive policies to decarbonise all sectors rapidly, even if they are politically challenging," he said.

Links

• Poorer households switching to solar faster than the rich
• 'Sands are shifting': NSW agriculture minister to push climate cause
• NSW Renewables
• Clean Energy Council calls for NSW renewables target, as another state election looms
• Clean Energy Council: NSW needs strong Renewable Energy Target to match Victoria’s

New South Wales Energy Sector Is “Ageing And Unprepared”

RenewEconomy - Joshua S Hill

Climate Council Report key findings:  New South Wales was once a world leader on climate action, but over the past five years it has become a laggard.  New South Wales introduced the world’s first emissions trading scheme in 2003, which over 10 years reduced greenhouse gas pollution by an estimated 144 million tonnes. The scheme concluded in 2012.  Over the past five years South Australia, the Australian Capital Territory and Tasmania have led the country on renewable energy progress, while New South Wales has consistently remained at the back of the pack.  New South Wales used to have strong emissions reduction targets to reduce greenhouse gas pollution but these targets were dropped; the state planned to introduce a renewable energy target, but it was never implemented. New South Wales is responsible for more greenhouse gas pollution than any other state or territory and continues to rely on heavily polluting coal and unreliable gas power stations.  New South Wales has Australia’s oldest coal fleet and is home to five operating coal power stations; collectively they produced 82% of the state’s electricity in 2017.  It is risky to rely on old coal power stations because they become increasingly unreliable with age.  New South Wales has excellent wind and solar resources; however, they account for just 6% of the electricity generated in New South Wales.  Current climate policies in New South Wales are inadequate, although local councils are stepping up in the face of state government inaction. New South Wales does not have a comprehensive policy or target to encourage new renewable energy generation, nor does it have policies to enable the state to reach its net zero emissions target in 2050.  In the past 12 months the state has taken some positive steps to encourage renewable energy and storage technologies, further action is required.  There is massive potential in New South Wales for new jobs and investment in a renewable energy future.  Local councils like Lismore, Newcastle and Musswellbrook are all leaders on climate action.  New South Wales is highly exposed to the impacts of climate change. Climate change, driven by the burning of coal, oil and gas, is already affecting New South Wales.  Extreme heatwaves led to a 10% increase in both deaths and ambulance callouts in New South Wales between 2005 and 2015.  Damages from extreme weather events cost New South Wales $3.6 billion per year and this figure is likely to rise as these events, driven by climate change, become more frequent and severe.  The cheapest and fastest way for New South Wales to reduce its greenhouse gas pollution would be to progressively replace the state’s coal power stations with renewable energy like wind and solar, with storage.

A new report from Australia’s Climate Council has revealed how, years on from once being a world leader on climate action, the state of New South Wales is now lagging far behind the rest of the country and is responsible for more greenhouse gas pollution than any other state or territory as it continues to rely heavily on coal and gas power generation.
New South Wales history as a climate leader is long in the past now – it introduced the world’s first emissions trading scheme all the way back in 2003 which, according to estimates, reduced greenhouse gas pollution by 144 million tonnes over 10 years before concluding in 2012.
The state also used to boast strong emissions reduction targets, but these targets have since been dropped.
Further, NSW had once planned to introduce a renewable energy target, another promise which was simply left by the wayside.
In the end, therefore, New South Wales has no comprehensive policy or target to encourage new renewable energy generation and it also has no policies in place to push towards reaching its net zero emissions by 2050.
All this policy inaction and ineptitude over the past decade has led to the state generating more greenhouse gas emissions than any other state or territory in Australia, as it continues to rely heavily on coal-fired and gas power generation.
This is further highlighted by the fact that New South Wales is home to the oldest coal fleet in the country – five operating coal power stations that, collectively, produced 82% of New South Wales’ electricity in 2017.
Resulting from an over-reliance on old fossil fuel-powered generation technologies is a lack of policies to support the development of more wind and solar projects in NSW beyond 2020, creating tremendous risk that the state will be caught short as coal-fired power stations are closed or fail unexpectedly during extreme weather events.
“NSW has an energy system stuck in the dark ages, and as soon as the heatwaves hit, the old coal clunkers have a tendency to fall over like dominoes,” said Climate Councillor and former president of BP Australasia, Greg Bourne.
“NSW has Australia’s largest and oldest coal fleet. It’s risky business to rely on coal power stations which become increasingly unreliable with age. Last year they broke down more than 20 times.”
New South Wales is already affected by extreme heatwaves which have led to a 10% increase in both deaths and ambulance call-outs between 2005 and 2015, and damages from extreme weather events have now begun to cost the state $3.6 billion annually – a figure likely to only increase in coming years, driven by climate change-related extreme weather events which will become more frequent and severe.
“From sea level rise affecting coastal towns, to extreme heat in western Sydney and increasing bushfire risk across the state, climate change is a major threat in NSW,” Bourne continued.
“NSW once had a vision to protect communities from worsening climate change. It established the world’s first emissions trading scheme in 2003 but dropped it nine years later.
The state once had strong targets to reduce greenhouse gas pollution, but these were ditched too.
“States like Victoria, Queensland and South Australia are surging forward, leaving NSW far behind. South Australia is on track to reach 73% renewable electricity in less than two years, while across Australia, almost 10,000 new jobs are being created in the renewable energy industry.”
The lack of action is further compounded by the state’s excellent wind and solar resources, but which only contribute 6% of the electricity generated
“Despite having excellent wind and solar resources, renewable energy in NSW accounts for just 6% of the electricity generated, compared to South Australia which has 4%,” said Climate Councillor and energy expert, Professor Andrew Stock.
“In the past 12 months, NSW has made progress on renewables and storage technologies, but much more needs to be done if we are going to tackle climate change.
“Whichever party is elected to lead NSW at the upcoming election, it will need to step up,” he said.
This political failure is further underscored by the fact that 83% of the New South Wales public supports the development of more renewable energy, and over twenty local councils are supporting new solar farms to help residents reduce their power bills.
Given the potential for wind and solar generation in New South Wales, the lack of policy action to develop new renewable energy fails to capitalise on the massive potential for new jobs and investment.

Links

• Climate Council: Ageing and Unprepared: Energy in New South Wales (pdf)
• New South Wales’ Ageing Coal Clunkers
• NSW: Energy System Stuck in the Dark Ages
• NSW is Australia’s most polluting state

The Forgotten Climate Change Crises: Decline In Bogong Moth Numbers Leaves Pygmy Mountain Possums Starving

The Guardian - Graham Readfearn

Exclusive: climate change linked to ‘astonishing’ drop in bogong moth numbers, the key food source for possums while breeding 

The mountain pygmy possum population is threatened again because of the dramatic decline in bogong moths. Photograph: Zoos Victoria/AFP/Getty Images

Numbers of unique Australian moths that migrate in their billions to alpine areas have crashed, ecologists say, putting extra pressure on the endangered mountain pygmy possum.
Scientists believe the “astonishing” drop in bogong moth numbers is linked to climate change and recent droughts in areas where the moths breed.
At the same time checks on the endangered mountain pygmy possum, which exists only in Australia’s alpine regions, have revealed dead litters in the pouches of females. The moths are a key food source for the possums as they wake from hibernation.
In 2018, scientists revealed bogong moths were the only known insect to use the earth’s magnetic field to help them navigate from grasslands in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland – sometimes at distances of 1,000km. Around two billion moths are estimated to make the journey.
The ecologist Dr Ken Green has been monitoring bogong moths for 40 years. He said: “Last summer numbers were atrocious. It was not just really bad, it was the worst I had ever seen. Now this year it’s got even worse.”
The moths find caves and cracks in boulders to hide away in a torpor state. A cave at Mount Gingera, near Canberra, has been known to house millions of the moths but last month Green and colleagues counted just three individuals. Searches of about 50 known sites have turned up similar catastrophic absences.
“They haven’t just declined. They’ve gone,” he said. “We have done mountains from down to the Victorian border all the way to Canberra. We have checked every cave we know.”
A site at South Ramshead in the Snowy Mountains in New South Wales had just 1,000 moths last year. “That is very, very low,” says Green.
“This year we found just six moths. Last week we went back and there were none.”
Green believes the cause of the crash is drought in the moth’s breeding areas. The Bureau of Meteorology has said the drought was exceptional in those areas, but noted there had been similar dry periods in the 1960s and earlier.

Impact on the endangered mountain pygmy possums
Dean Heinze, an associate at Latrobe University, has been monitoring and researching mountain pygmy possums since the early 1990s. The possum populations are spread across Kosciuszko national park in New South Wales, and in Victoria at Mount Bogong, Mount Higginbotham and Mount Buller.

Scientists think the ‘astonishing’ drop in bogong moth numbers is linked to climate change, with extensive droughts in recent years in locations where the moths breed before migrating to alpine regions. Photograph: Auscape International/Alamy

As the possums emerge from hibernation in September and October, the moths are a key food source as they breed and raise young.
“Bogong moths are an incredible food source and very high in protein. Last year we found that some populations of possums were losing litters. It’s happening again this year. We think that the fewer moths means the possums are carrying less weight and losing the litters.”
In recent weeks Heinze has visited about 12 locations in Victoria and discovered dead litters in female pouches at “most of the sites.”
“It’s a widespread event,” he said. “I inspect the reproductive system of the animal and I look in their pouch to see how many young there are. I have been opening pouches and discovering dead and decomposing young ... For some, the young have been dead for days.
“The concern is that over time, if this happens more frequently we will see declines in the adult population as well. And this is the second year that they have lost litters. The litmus test will be next season.”
Around Mount Buller in Victoria, the possum habitat is fragmented by ski resorts. Captive breeding and release programs have been used to keep numbers up.
“We have put a huge effort into the population at Mount Buller,” says Heinze. “We have brought the population back from the brink and now we have this happening. I’m optimistic, but if we get more of this then it doesn’t look good. Here we are dealing with a species that only occurs in the alps, but what’s impacting it is happening hundreds of kilometres away.”
In 2016, a national recovery plan was agreed for the possum, outlining multiple threats including habitat degradation, predation by invasive cats and foxes and climate change.
A study published in October 2018 and led by scientists at the New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage looked at the climate change threats to the possums and the moths. The study suggested the moths had a “reduced survival in a warmer world” and this would “likely further affect survival” of the possums.
Prof Lesley Hughes, an ecologist at Macquarie University and councillor at the Climate Council of Australia, said the potential role of climate change in the decline of the moths and possums were what ecologists and climate scientists had predicted.
“Unfortunately the general predictions of the ecological risks of climate change are now turning into observations for particular species. And it should be no surprise we are seeing these impacts in the alpine zone, long recognised as one of the most vulnerable ecosystems to climate risks.
“Sometimes these changes can appear to happen abruptly – one year there are millions of moths and the next almost none. This shows how particular extreme events, such as droughts or severe bushfires, can suddenly tip a species over the edge, with flow-on effects to others in the ecosystem.”
The environment minister, Melissa Price, said she was aware of the reports of low bogong moth numbers and the government was working with a leading possum researcher “to understand the potential toll that reduced number of moths may be having on the species”.
The removal of feral cats and foxes in Kosciusko national park was helping possum protection, she said, and two government-backed projects were tackling weed infestations, building resilience to climate change, and managing loss of genetic diversity among possums in the Victorian Alpine region.
Victoria’s Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning spokesperson Adrian Moorrees said the reduction in moths “is likely to be due to recent droughts” in NSW and Queensland.
He said tools and processes were being developed “to better monitor and predict the impact of bogong moth populations on endangered mountain pygmy possums.”
A spokesperson for the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage said no litter deaths were reported in NSW possum populations, but the drought was believed to have impacted most species.
He said when moth numbers were low, possums turned to other food sources, including insects, fruits and nectar, adding “OEH will continue to implement the species recovery plans for the mountain pygmy possum.”

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