26/03/2019

'Out Of Line': Top Australian Companies Accused Of Undermining Paris Deal

The Guardian - 

Action group Market Forces urges shareholders to divest holdings in 22 ‘uninvestables’
The companies reported to be ignoring the Paris climate deal are worth a combined $121bn and represent 7% of the ASX300 index. Photograph: Tim Wimborne/Reuters 
New analysis shows 22 of Australia’s largest companies are actively working to undermine the Paris agreement targets, betting shareholders’ money on strategies that assume global climate change action fails.
Investor action group Market Forces says those companies – worth a combined $121bn and representing 7% of the ASX300 – are “out of line and out of time” and has called on shareholders to divest their holdings.
Paris-alignment of ASX 300 companies by weight
The group’s legal analyst, Will van de Pol, said it was the first time Market Forces had “named names” and called out companies whose business strategies relied on the world failing to meet the Paris targets to restrict the global temperature rise to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
“A handful of Australian companies are undermining efforts to limit global warming by pursuing new fossil fuel projects, or basing their business plans on energy projection scenarios that would doom the Paris agreement to failure,” the report says.
“These companies have now been given more than three years to align their business with the Paris goals, but have dismissed the notion.”
The list of “uninvestables” includes mainly resource and energy companies, but also diversified investment vehicles including WH Soul Pattinson and Seven Group Holdings.
The Market Forces study found that 199 ASX300 companies, representing 64% of total market capitalisation, faced heightened transitional climate risk but had not yet demonstrated business strategies consistent with the Paris agreement.
There were 143 companies with policies “not overtly inconsistent with Paris”, and just eight had aligned their strategy with the agreement.
Three companies – AGL, Origin and BHP – earned a reprieve from the list of the worst offenders, despite acting in a similar manner, because Market Forces said they had shown some progress towards aligning their goals with Paris.
In recent years, the boardroom has become an increasingly important front for climate activism.
This month, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest in the world, announced it would divest from firms that explored for oil and gas. Last month, Glencore said it would no longer back new coalmines in response to investor calls for the company to act on climate change.
Pressure is also increasing on Australian companies, though many still refuse to even consider the financial risk posed to their businesses by climate change.
In September, a report from the Australian Securities and Investments Commission said “the law requires” relevant companies to “include a discussion of climate risk” in their annual report.
In February, the Asic corporate governance council released new recommendations that directors and companies should make climate risk disclosures.
The Market Forces report singled out “coal cowboys” Whitehaven and New Hope, which it said had plans to establish new coalmines, or expand existing ones, based on forecasts that assume the failure of Paris.
Oil and gas companies Woodside, Santos and Oil Search had each “faced increased investor engagement over climate change in recent years, but this has done nothing to dissuade their plans to increase fossil fuel production”, the report said.
“Investors determined to play their part in the fight against runaway climate change must immediately reallocate capital away from these companies.”

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Australian Faces Free Trade Agreement Pressure To Cut Emissions

AFR - Ben Potter

Australia is set to come under increased pressure on climate change this year after French officials insisted the Morrison government's carbon emissions targets are not ambitious enough to fully comply with the Paris agreement.
The French officials' comments come at a sensitive time because Australia is currently negotiating a free trade agreement with the European Union, which EU negotiator Helena Konig and French President Emanuel Macron have said must include a clause requiring full implementation of the Paris agreement.
In a briefing in Paris the officials lavished praise on the role of Pacific Islands nations and New Zealand in climate change negotiations while slighting Australia's efforts with faint praise, and held out the hope of a stiffening of Australia's ambitions after the federal election.
Coal is expected to be Australia's largest export this year. Caria Gottgens
"New Zealand is playing a very constructive role in the fight against climate change. Australia is, well, it's slightly more complicated," an official said.
"Australia is as constructive as it can [be] in the climate change negotiations but frankly not ambitious enough in terms of its NDCs and ambitions. Hopefully it can become more ambitious over time."
NDCs – nationally determined contributions – are the commitments made by individual nations at the Paris talks.
In an apparent reference to the federal election expected to be held by May 18, for which Labor is campaigning on more ambitious carbon targets and leading in opinion polling, a second official said, "We know that things may happen in Australia this year, and we hope of course that the ambition of Australia will increase over time".

Europe's frustration
The remarks underline Europe's frustration with backsliding by countries such as the United States, which wants to pull out of the Paris agreement, Brazil, which is toying with pulling out, and Australia and other nations that claim the energy intensive nature of their economies entitles them to deliver smaller emissions cuts.
The Morrison government has stuck with the carbon targets agreed to at the Paris talks in 2015, which require Australia to reduce its carbon emissions by 26-28 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. The target would be reduced to about 15 per cent if the government insisted on being able to carry forward the "overachievement" against past "Kyoto" targets, a tactic comparable nations have ruled out.
Public pressure is also increasing for more decisive action on climate change: The School Strike for action against Climate Change. Justin McManus
Australia's climate change negotiators must also return to the United Nations in New York in September to finalise the "rule book" for international carbon markets, which couldn't be agreed at the COPS24 talks in Katowice, Poland, last December despite pressure building for signatories to pursue policies that would limit global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures.

Cut more carbon
Australia is expected to come up with new, improved emissions targets by 2020 under the Paris agreement, which contains an overriding agreement – beyond the individual nations' targets – to limit temperature increases to "well below" 2 degrees.
The French officials agreed with scientists who say existing commitments would mean global temperature increases of more than 3 degrees. But they were not ready to embrace a new target of 55 per cent emissions cuts recommended by an EU committee two weeks ago, which several European nations have pushed back against.
Scientists say temperature increases of 3 degrees and more would be more dangerous, with increased extreme weather events that insurers say could make insurance unaffordable.
Last September the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a scientific report that concluded coal power would have to be virtually eliminated and agriculture changed dramatically to achieve the 1.5 degree target and avoid more frequent dangerous heatwaves, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones as well as irreversible damage to coral reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef.
Coal is expected to be Australia's largest export this year, with sales of $67 billion across thermal and steel-making coal.
The French officials laid out a series of priorities for climate negotiations including getting the Paris agreement "fully implemented", raising national ambitions for carbon cuts and getting more ambitious commitments from the signatories by 2020.

No coal, no 'double counting'
They said the Group of 20 leading economies – which includes Australia, the US, Japan and Britain as well as France, German, other leading European nations and emerging giants India and China – must take the lead in cutting emissions because they are responsible for four-fifths of global emissions.
France has banned its development aid agencies from financing coal power, and the officials said they wanted the equivalent agencies of China and Japan - the largest funders of global coal power projects - to follow suit and support renewable energy instead, because of the benefits in terms of reduced carbon emissions and improved health outcomes that would likely result.
They noted that Australian officials played a constructive role in technical aspects of climate talks – such as rules for carbon markets and actions to mitigate damage to coral reefs.
But they said they were counting on a strong rule book on carbon markets to emerge from the UN talks in September to prevent any "double counting" – such as the tactic of carrying forward past overachievement – and maintain the integrity of the Paris agreement.
"That's what we mean by environmental integrity – real reductions in emissions, no double counting," an official said.

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Why Climate Change Risks Are 'Material' For Big Finance

Fairfax - Clancy Yeates

After a prod from Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, the financial regulator this month reminded superannuation funds that their job was to stay out of political causes, and stick to their knitting: looking after members' interests.
Then, the day after this warning was revealed, the very same regulator, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), upped the pressure on our biggest financial institutions to take more action to deal with climate change risks.
Do those two directions from APRA sound like they might be in conflict? They shouldn't.
Financial businesses are under greater pressure to consider their exposure to climate change risks, which could include fossil fuel assets. Credit: Peter Braig
The pressure put on companies over climate action by many large superannuation funds has attracted plenty of attention lately, with some criticising super funds' role in pushing resources giant Glencore's to cap its coal output.
How the funds managing $2.7 trillion in retirement savings deal with social or environment issues is a debate that is worth having, as the clout of super funds will only grow in years to come. When it comes to climate change, however, the message coming from those who regulate our financial system could hardly be clearer.
They view climate change as a real and present business risk that financiers need to be putting high on the agenda – irrespective of the failure of our political system to really deal with the issue. The sooner more companies start viewing it this way, the better.
In the Reserve Bank’s first meaty comments on the topic, deputy governor Guy Debelle this month warned climate change could cause financial shocks, if companies didn't take these risks seriously in their planning.
Then, last week, APRA released its first survey of how 38 large banks, insurance companies, and superannuation funds are looking at climate risks.
It showed a third of these businesses viewed climate changes as a "material" risk to their businesses right now. More than half thought it would be a material risk at some point in the future.
The most common types of financial risks identified were damage to reputation, flood, regulatory action, cyclone, energy risks, and bushfires.
In a finding that's raised some eyebrows among observers, only about half of the general insurers — who are exposed to flood, bushfire, and cyclones — thought climate change was "material" for them at the moment.
More than 40 per cent of banks and superannuation funds also thought climate risks were material right now, and the vast majority thought they would be material risks in the future.
It's a safe bet those proportions will only rise in years to come, as regulators and investors raise the pressure on financial businesses to put more emphasis on climate change risks.
Emma Herd, who represents institutional investors with about $2 trillion as chief executive of the Investor Group on Climate Change, says the consistent message from regulators is that climate change risks are "material, foreseeable, and actionable."
“The key message for the businesses is don’t get distracted by the political debate. Look at what your regulators are telling you," she says.
Why are the regulators so concerned to see action on climate change?
No doubt part of it is a sense of trying to do their part to help us avoid catastrophic environmental costs for future generations, but their more immediate worries concern financial stability.
APRA board member Geoff Summerhayes, speaking in his capacity as chair of the Sustainable Insurance Forum, last month said climate change was quickly moving from a "purely partisan or moral issue" to one that is "distinctly financial in nature."
Insurance companies are the most immediately affected by more frequent and severe natural disasters. Global insured losses in 2018 were only half of those of 2017, Sumerhayes said, but he added that "2018 was still the fourth most costly year on record".
Banks and financial markets would also be exposed to dramatic changes in the values of trillions in fossil fuel assets. There is a risk many of these assets could become "stranded" as a result of policies to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions, or from advances in renewable energy technology. That risk is especially relevant to big fossil fuel producers like Australia, and it's a reason why banks have been getting more wary about coal financing in recent years.
Longer term, banks' massive mortgage books could also be exposed to risks because of hazards made worse from climate change, such as floods or cyclones.
For several years, regulators have been pushing big financial institutions to collect and publish more data on such climate risks, and run scenarios on how they would fare under various "transition" scenarios.
Now, APRA says it wants to see a move from "awareness to action." It wants banks, insurers and wealth managers to look at climate risks just like any other part of their risk management framework — not as a social responsibility issue.
Bank of England governor Mark Carney, a global leader in this area, last week gave us a taste of where APRA and other local regulators will probably go. Carney said he expected climate risks to be given consideration at board level, and that the United Kingdom regulators would start conducting climate "stress tests" on insurers and banks.
Carney acknowledged these sorts of changes - which are likely coming here as well - won't be enough on their own to move the world to a low-carbon economy. That will be up to governments, and business.
But however dysfunctional our domestic debate is on climate change, it's abundantly clear the financial sector needs to give this issue growing attention.

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AustralianSuper targets dirty dozen in Climate Action 100+ push

25/03/2019

Banks Funneled $1.9 Trillion Into Fossil Fuels Since Paris Agreement

CleanTechnica - 

A new report published this week shows that 33 global banks provided $1.9 trillion to fossil fuel companies since the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement at the end of 2015 and that the amount of fossil fuel financing has increased in each of the past two years.


The new report, Banking on Climate Change 2019, is the tenth annual fossil fuel report card and the first-ever analysis of funding from the world’s major private banks for the fossil fuel sector as a whole. The report was released Wednesday by Rainforest Action Network, BankTrack, Indigenous Environmental Network, Oil Change International, Sierra Club, and Honor the Earth, and endorsed by over 160 organizations around the world.
In addition to finding that 33 of the world’s top banks are supplied $1.9 trillion to fossil fuel companies since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the report also found that of that $1.9 trillion, $600 billion went to 100 companies that are most aggressively expanding fossil fuels, highlighting business-as-usual practices that fly in the face of the latest scientific warnings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which warned that “Limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society.”
That same report not only outlined the dangers ahead if we remain committed to business-as-usual practices but also highlighted the fact that we need $2.4 trillion worth of clean energy investments each year up to 2035 to stave off the worst of the effects of climate change. That so much money is still being funneled towards the fossil fuel energy sector speaks volumes about how banks and energy companies are responding to the need for renewable energy.
“Alarming is an understatement. This report is a red alert,” said Alison Kirsch, Climate and Energy Lead Researcher at Rainforest Action Network. “The massive scale at which global banks continue to pump billions of dollars into fossil fuels is flatly incompatible with a livable future. It’s an insult to logic, to science and to humanity that since the groundbreaking Paris Climate Agreement, financing for fossil fuels continues to rise. If banks don’t rapidly phase out their support for dirty energy, planetary collapse from man-made climate change is not just probable — it is imminent.”
Tellingly, the report also found that the four biggest global bankers of the fossil fuel energy sector are all US banks — JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citi, and Bank of America. This is not to say that banks in the rest of the world aren’t also making nuisances of themselves, with Barclays of England, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) of Japan, and RBC of Canada all continuing to heavily finance the industry. But, as highlighted by the authors of the report, “The massive economic weight of the US oil and gas industry can be easily seen in the fact that the top four bankers of climate change are all headquartered in the United States” and, further, two more US banks — Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs — serve to fill out the top 12, meaning that “all six of the US banking giants are in the top dirty dozen fossil banks” and “account for an astonishing 37% of global fossil fuel financing since the Paris Agreement was adopted.”
US banking giant JPMorgan Chase is also highlighted in the report as “very clearly the world’s worst banker of climate change,” having funneled $196 billion into the fossil fuel industry between 2016 and 2018 “is nearly a third higher than the second-worst bank, Wells Fargo” — another US bank.
Total Fossil Fuel Financing by Year
LARGE IMAGE
“We’re faced with ever-worsening climate change impacts worldwide, and the latest IPCC report provides a stark 2030 deadline for the deep cuts in global CO2 emissions needed to avoid full climate breakdown,” said Johan Frijns, Director of BankTrack. “Yet banks continue to throw their billions at the fossil fuel industry while announcing minor policy tweaks here and endorsements of the latest toothless ‘responsible finance’ initiative there. One wonders what on earth it will take for banks to finally change course and fully abandon the fossil fuel sector. Campaigners will be demanding exactly this at this year’s upcoming bank AGMs, armed with this report’s shocking new findings.”
RBC of Canada was ranked fifth and is the world’s top banker of tar sands and funneled a total of $101 billion into the fossil fuel industry. England’s Barclays is the top European banker of fracking and coal and is the worst European bank for climate change, having poured $85 billion into fossil fuels and $24 billion into expansion. Japan’s worst fossil fuel bank was MUFG, which funneled $80 billion into fossil fuels overall and $25 billion into fossil fuel expansion specifically, while China’s top banker of coal power was Bank of China, qualifying it as the country’s worst banker of fossil fuels with $17 billion poured into expansion.
“At a time when science tells us we need to rapidly transition to clean energy, major American banks are placing themselves on the wrong side of history by continuing to offer a blank check to the fossil fuel industry,” concluded Ben Cushing, Sierra Club Beyond Dirty Fuels Campaign Representative. “The global outcry for financial institutions to stop financing climate destruction will only grow louder and more powerful until these banks get the message and pull their support for dirty fossil fuels once and for all.”

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Water Is A Growing Source Of Global Conflict. Here’s What We Need To Do

World Economic Forum - Kitty Van Der Heijden | Callie Stinson

In 2017, water was a major factor in conflicts spanning 45 countries - including Syria
Image: REUTERS/Bassam Khabieh
Kitty Van Der Heijden
Kitty Van Der Heijden is Africa and Europe Director, World Resources Institute
Callie Stinson
Callie Stinson is Project Lead, Water Initiative, World Economic Forum
The most intensive drought ever recorded in Syria lasted from 2006 to 2011. Water scarcity hit households, businesses and infrastructure, while in the countryside crops failed, livestock died, and entire families moved to the country’s cities. The subsequent eruption of civil war in 2011 led to as many as half a million deaths, as well as massive migration flows to neighbouring countries and beyond, and untold misery. Syria’s war has been a tragic illustration of the central, driving role that water insecurity can play in instability and conflict.
This is no surprise. In 2017 alone, water was a major factor in conflict in at least 45 countries, including Syria. Its importance as a resource means that water-related insecurity can easily exacerbate tensions and friction within and between countries. It can be weaponized; nefarious actors can gain control of, destroy, or redirect access to water to meet their objectives by targeting infrastructure and supplies. Advancements in cyber attacks on critical infrastructure raise further concerns as to the security of water systems.
The World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report (GRR) has listed water crises among the top-five risks in terms of impact for eight consecutive years. In the most recent version of the report, it remains nested among a cluster of other risks that are rated as having both a very high likelihood and a very high impact. These include extreme weather events, natural disasters, the failure of climate change adaptation and mitigation, man-made environmental disasters, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, interstate conflict and large scale-involuntary migration.


These risks are increasingly interconnected. Failure to mitigate climate change could lead to more extreme weather events, ecosystem collapse and a greater likelihood of man-made environmental disasters. All of these can exacerbate food and water insecurity, which in turn can lead to human deprivation, and could make these and other risks like migration and conflict more likely in a negative feedback loop. Around two thirds of the world’s population, or 4 billion people, currently live without sufficient access to fresh water for at least one month of the year.
Further complicating the picture is the reality that securing water for food and economic activity will only become more difficult over time. As economies develop, their water consumption patterns shift and overall demand rises dramatically to meet the needs of food production, thirsty manufacturing and other industries, thermal power plants and households. However, water supplies are often damaged by poor management, pollution and over-consumption, in addition to supply-side reductions due to climate change impacts and the ecosystem degradation mentioned above.
Many of these drivers of insecurity can be seen in the Inner Niger Delta area of Mali, a marshy wetlands along a stretch of the Niger river. Disruptions to the Delta’s waters, for instance through the construction of two upstream dams, risk destroying fragile ecosystems and further destabilizing the entire region. Altering downstream flows can jeopardize traditional economic activities that underpin the viability of Delta fishing villages, destroying livelihoods and exacerbating social tensions such as intergenerational friction.
Combined with reductions in available farmland associated with rising temperatures and desertification, such environmental degradation risks further fuelling mass migration to the Malian capital Bamako and Europe. The journey is not a safe one, with criminalised trafficking routes that pass nearby between the West African coast and the Sahara. The history of radicalization in the region by extremist groups that have established themselves in northern Mali further illustrates the vulnerabilities facing the displaced and disenfranchised. People whose access to water is limited risk becoming increasingly marginalized, and a target for recruitment by radical groups. Water is critical to the region’s security.
The Inner Niger Delta illustrates the critical role that water insecurity can play in exacerbating other risks, and the necessity of holistic policy approaches. Unfortunately, water insecurity is not yet taken seriously enough by all actors, despite its central role in our economies and in human lives and livelihoods. In most scenarios, the true security threat caused by water insecurity is not a ‘water war’, but rather in its secondary impact on associated human security, that which can then exacerbate local, regional and international security threats.
It can impede or reverse economic development, and prevent countries from playing their art in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. It can also affect the private sector, for instance by affecting critical parts of complex supply chains. Robust solutions to the water security challenge are critical for everybody from public policymakers and businesses to the wider public and the international community. A new generation of public-private partnerships can be part of the solution to such complex and interrelated risks, responding with urgency and innovation to manage the ‘less for more’ challenge of reduced supply and increased demand.
Advances in technology can play an important role in this new era of collaboration. Real-time data is already being used to generate insights about the interplay of risk factors, allowing the development of sophisticated early-warning tools. The Water, Peace and Security Partnership partnership, for instance, crunches vast amounts of data, using machine-learning and other technologies to identify patterns that indicate the high risk of a conflict situation developing. It does not simply flash a warning light, but points to the factors that need to be addressed through capacity-building and stakeholder engagement to mitigate any potential conflict.
The tool, presented to the UN’s Security Council in 2018, aims to build cohesion for collective action among diplomats, defence analysts, development and humanitarian experts and environmental scientists. Another partnership, Digital Earth Africa, is developing an open-access platform of analysis-ready geospatial data for public use that will enable African nations to track environmental changes across the continent in unprecedented detail, including flooding, droughts, soil and coastal erosion, agriculture, forest and land-use change, water availability and quality, and changes to human settlements.
Such insights can help governments, businesses and communities better understand and address the interconnected web of environmental risks, in particular the impacts of climate change. From variations in rainfall patterns to extended periods of extreme weather events, building resilience across agricultural, industrial and domestic water supplies is a key priority for increasing water security.
The complex challenges and impacts of water crises will certainly make it difficult to shift from the top of future global risk lists. But real progress can be made, especially through cross-sectoral partnerships and platforms that can engage with such complexity. The 2030 Water Resources Group, which works across a network of more than 600 partners to tackle the water supply-demand gap in 14 different geographies, is a promising blueprint for effective public-private cooperation.
Access to better data can bolster such collaborations and lead to more effective solutions, for instance through mapping water risk, and generating greater understanding of how physical water shortages affect societal tensions, political disruptions and cross-border migration. These are just a few examples of how the world is already developing the types of ‘next generation’ insights, tools and partnerships needed to tackle water insecurity. But what the Global Risk Report makes clear is that any solution needs to be underpinned by an increased awareness of the scale and interconnectedness of the water security challenge before us.

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Book Reviews: The End Of The World Is Coming, And You Are Responsible

Tablet - Sean Cooper

New climate-change narratives ordain humans with godly powers to undo and repair the planet. Is it science, or a new religion?
Flames close in on cars parked along a country road at the Blue Cut Fire, Wrightwood, California, in August 2016.
Photo: David McNew/Getty Images
Let us now gather round the steel drum of fire and remember the moments of our lives before the climate apocalypse. It is perhaps 2045 or 2075, predicting the future is never an exact science, and you and I are among the lucky half billion, or not so lucky, to have survived the collapse of civilization. We avoid wolf packs, ration freeze-dried meals, and reminisce about mundane comforts, like long hot showers and take-out Vietnamese food.
It’s almost difficult to recall the high-volume chatter that had once streamed through our mind’s eye, the news websites and social platforms that had begun to monetize the uptick in climate disaster media, the bundled up packages of commissioned and crowdsourced videos and images of towns made uninhabitable, evacuations captured in real-time courtesy of omnipresent drones. We hashtagged our outrage and dismay. Some of us took out our Amazon credit cards to donate to the most worthy cause or charity, but we had otherwise internalized the agony and drama of global suffering as content, clicking off when bored.
This certainly could have all been avoided. If only the political class of the Western world hadn’t become the plaything of fossil fuel corporations! We are conversant with the basic factual one-two-three on climate change because we feel dutifully obligated to know, and we keep our fingers crossed that we won’t wind up dead in biblical floods or worse as survivors of whatever comes after. We know that our use of fossil fuels emits too much carbon into the atmosphere; it’s heating the world and pushing us ever closer to mass calamity, casualties, pain; the only way to stop it is an enforceable global treaty getting us off of fossil fuels, onto renewables.
In the narrative of our great slide over the cliff’s edge the present moment is notable in that it offers glimmers of quiet hope in the potential of a Green New Deal, with the United States finally leading the way. Concurrent to any social and political movement there’s a rash of topical books hitting the shelves. Every month brings us a new slate of titles informing us in great detail of how exactly civilization will end, or not end, thanks to the ingenious and industrious effort of other people. But let us not forget the truism, born out as always by recent memory, that we should be cynical and suspicious in our current affairs, if only to temper the disappointment that never seems to go away.


The two most prominent titles of this year—The Uninhabitable Earth, by David Wallace-Wells, and Losing Earth, by Nathaniel Rich—began as blockbuster magazine articles. A deputy editor at New York Magazine, Wallace-Wells wrote for that publication in 2017 a graphic account of the scope of suffering that unmitigated climate change will soon bring, which per Wallace-Wells is now the most-read story of all time on the magazine’s website. For Rich, a novelist, his article on the missed opportunity in the 1970s and ’80s, when U.S. politicians failed to midwife a global treaty at a key climate change summit, appeared last year in The New York Times Magazine, which gave over an entire issue for the effort. Perhaps with the acute awareness of our imminent demise the authors turned them into books with unusual haste.
Penguin Random House
In the padding of the original articles with fresh statistics and extended commentaries, both books carry with them a brooding quality, a heavy guilt not so much the authors’ as one that’s projected upon an audience already quite aware of climate change. Indeed, these books are not written to convince those in denial or uncertain of the science. These are for the well-initiated, and in their pairing we have something of a unified view of how we’ve gotten to where we are and where we’re going. Or, if not that, then at least an idea of how our past and future will be successfully packaged and sold to us, the knowing general audience.
In an unusual gambit Rich concedes at the outset to the redundant futility of a detailed narrative on a world altered by climate change. “Nearly every conversation that we have in 2019 about climate change was being held in 1979,” he writes. “We are well-enough acquainted by now with the political story of climate change, the technological story, the economic story, the industry story. They have been told expertly, exhaustively, by journalists and scholars.” To compensate for the climate-soaked reader’s inevitable fatigue Rich deploys a twinkling cinematic plot, a three-act hero tale with an unusual ending.
The hero, in this case, is Jim Hansen, the folksy son of an Iowa waitress and bartender who after a studious youth montage of classroom and graduation scenes found himself in the 1970s at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in Manhattan, running computer simulations of our warming planet. According to Hansen’s models, we were on track for a 3-degree-Celsius warming by around 2035, which was a critical threshold for untold global destruction. Although scientists knew man’s fossil fuel habits were dangerously warming the planet as early as the 1930s, for the sake of dramatic tension Rich sets Hansen’s discovery of the approaching 3-degree rise as revelatory. For Hansen, “a guileless atmosphere physicist,” the challenge is to try to “warn humanity of what was coming.”
Amazon
Hansen is aided in his quest to defeat ignorance by a group of top scientists and science agency officials, a boy’s club called The Jasons. “The Jasons were like one of those teams of superheroes with complementary powers that joins forces in times of galactic crisis,” Rich writes, addressing himself to the audience for Marvel Comics superhero movies. Together, The Jasons and Hansen seek to convince Washington that we are doomed. Through a series of conference room meetings with slide projectors, meetings in backroom offices, and meetings before congressional subcommittees, Rich shows Hansen and his squad of scientists quibbling over report language and how best to communicate the stakes of their findings to a political body that would only take “decisive action … during a crisis.”
Rich keeps reminding the reader of his story template, writing that while “Hansen could occupy the role of hero,” there were worthy foes to oppose him. “A villain was emerging too: Fred Koomanoff, Reagan’s new director of the Energy Department’s carbon dioxide program, a wolf asked to oversee the henhouse.” Koomanoff and other administration figures hostile to the factual claims of the science community do what they can to undercut Hansen, chopping at his NASA funding and spinning his congressional testimony. But Hansen’s warnings, widely covered in the media, garner support from the public as well as both sides of Congress. Then-presidential candidate George H.W. Bush seizes on the groundswell of publicity around climate change during his campaign, and vows to enact regulations on carbon emission once in office.
Once elected, however, Bush is at best uninterested in environmental policy, and his chief of staff, John Sununu, takes up the job of super villain, doing whatever he can to blunt Hansen and his widening coalition seeking a global agreement on carbon regulation. The climatic showdown between Hansen and Bush’s administration takes place at a 1989 diplomatic summit in the Netherlands, where representatives of 65 countries have come together to sign a binding treaty to reduce carbon emissions by 20 percent before 2005. In the end, Hansen and the others lose out to the White House, which had roused Russia, other Soviet republics, and Great Britain to join them in endorsing a toothless treaty with no enforceable limits.
The point Rich wishes to make with the book is that in 1989 there was never a better time for political action on climate change. The public was in favor of emissions regulation. Politicians from both sides knew it was prudent. And even fossil fuel corporations had resigned themselves to the inevitable fate of regulation. So what happened? Despite their public statements of support, the political establishment didn’t think the long-term stability gained by curbing emissions was worth the painful cost of short-term changes to a society built on fossil fuels.
Since then, there have been similar diplomatic summits, the Paris Accord included, but the agreements have been weak at best, while carbon emissions continue to climb. As Rich notes, since the 1989 gathering in the Netherlands, “more carbon has been released into the atmosphere … than in the entire history of civilization preceding it.” Like Bush on the presidential campaign trail in the ’80s, nations have recently taken up the mantle as world leaders in climate change action, Canada, Denmark, and Australia included, but they continually fail “to honor their commitments.” Because, even when there are agreements made, Rich points out, they’re inherently flawed by the lack of enforcement. ‘There is no global police force, and no appetite for economic sanctions or military action triggered by a failure to meet emissions.”
A strong wind blows embers around a resident hosing his burning property 
during the Creek Fire on Dec. 5, 2017, in Sunland, California. 
Photo: David McNew/Getty Imagess
Rich’s ultimate solution to the broken political system is a peculiar one. As “we face the prospect of civilizational death,” he writes, “it brings into relief a dimension of the crisis that to this point has been largely absent: the moral dimension, which is to say, the heart of the matter.” But for Rich the moral responsibility doesn’t fall squarely upon the political class elected to serve and protect its constituents. Rather, the moral failure is found among us, the constituents. ‘“Nobody who lives on the electrical grid can be let entirely off the hook; certainly not any American,” Rich says. From the “moderator of a presidential debate” who doesn’t ask candidates hard enough climate change questions to the magazine “editor who fails to assign” enough climate change articles—everyone is complicit. Even the destitute among us are villains, as “a homeless person in the U.S. today consumes twice as much energy as the average global citizen.”
Elevating the issue of climate change above simple party politics or fossil fuel greed and into the rarefied moral strata follows Rich’s fetishization of the hero storybook model. “We can call the villains villains, the heroes heroes, the victims victims, and ourselves complicit,” he writes, endeavoring to pen a suprahero narrative whereby you and I, the morally bankrupt citizens, can rise above our own inherent flaws and help create a society that is more morally pure.
“A human problem requires a human solution,” Rich says with chilling, ominous undertones. “One of the most effective weapons is mortal shame. Shame may have no influence on the handyman of industry, but an appeal to higher decency can work on the human beings who vote in elections.”
Once society no longer tolerates those weak enough to still desire fossil fuels, then the political and industrial class will have to follow. Otherwise, pragmatic appeals to those who control the power and money will be meaningless.


Like Rich, David Wallace-Wells wants to cut through the deadlock on climate change with a direct appeal to the human condition. However, rather than run the risk of promoting an elite moral class that bestows upon itself the privilege of shaming others, Wallace-Wells seeks to rouse us into action by making us afraid. Very afraid. Because as he opens the book: “It is worse. Much worse than you think.”
“The mass extinction we are now living through has only just begun; so much more dying is coming,” Wallace-Wells writes of our shared future, for we are “a civilization enclosing itself in a gaseous suicide, a running car in a sealed garage.” Over 12 snappy sections Wallace-Wells documents in horrendous, suffocating detail the biblical events of death and decay that await us right around the corner. We’re stepping onto an entirely new planet, one ravaged by fires, floods, tsunamis, droughts, famines, and temperatures so hot that “humans at the equator and in the tropics would not be able to move around outside without dying.”
Perhaps because Wallace-Wells is the bearer of such bad news, he connects with us as a complicit bad actor. “I toss out tons of wasted food and hardly ever recycle,” he confesses. “I leave my air-conditioning on.” For those fastidious eco-lads and green ladies of the Western world, Wallace-Wells points out that all their effort to save the Earth one person at a time doesn’t really matter. In the grand scheme of carbon emissions, “the climate calculus is such that individual lifestyle choices do not add up to much.”
It doesn’t matter how we change our day-to-day bad habits, Wallace-Wells assures us. We are all together hurtling toward a world of “suffering beyond anything that humans have ever experienced through many millennia.” The ominous tone and details of our pain is his operating principal. “If this strikes you as tragic, which it should, consider that we have all the tools we need, today, to stop it all,” Wallace-Wells writes, noting that currently available technology combined with proper emissions regulation and a shift to greener production of food and energy can save civilization from collapse.
Similar to Rich’s shaming of the commonwealth, Wallace-Wells hopes that a critical mass can be terrified into mass action, engendering “a renewed egalitarian energy” that uses “technology to chase every last glimmer of hope for averting disastrous climate change.” In this way, Wallace-Wells mimics Rich’s suprahuman hero tale; he just sees fear to be more effective than shame to rouse the citizenry, in order to achieve a more elevated state of being. “We have an idiomatic name for those who hold the fate of the world in their hands, as we do: gods.”
The temptation to confront the realities of climate change by venerating those engaged with the confrontation is one that has been indulged by climate change observers for quite some time, going back to Bill McKibben, a former New Yorker staff writer, whose 1989 The End of Nature is an obvious touchstone for both Rich and Wallace-Wells. In his book, McKibben evokes the post-nature capacities of modern man as an all-powerful being that must no longer use its powers for evil. “We are in charge now, like it or not. As a species we are as gods—our reach global,” he writes.
With a nod to McKibben’s idolization of the progressives who posit themselves capable of correcting an ill society, Wallace-Walls concludes that if “humans are responsible for the problem, they must be capable of undoing it.” But the path Wallace-Wells sees to successful implementation of the proper technologies and regulations is a familiar one: “voting and organizing and political activity deployed at every level.”
Yet, if we are already fully capable of fixing the problem with the tools at hand, and our political system is in fact equipped to enact the changes once they’re demanded by the majority of the voting public, one might fairly question whether shame and fear are the best or even the only methods to catalyze us into action. To put it another way, perhaps the hero tales are themselves nothing more than distractions, useless provocations of a readership that already knows what’s at stake—a knowledge that will be slower to convert into meaningful action if it is driven by fear of what might come and shame of what we are already. Tormented by author-induced fear and shame, it wouldn’t be surprising if guilty readers chose to have another hamburger.

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24/03/2019

Harvard Scientists Want To Limit How Much Sunlight Reaches Earth's Surface In Order To Curb Global Warming

Business Insider - Melina Seiler | Ruqayyah Moynihan
  • Climate change and global warming are among the greatest challenges mankind has faced up until now.
  • Researchers at Harvard have put forward a new solution — they want to reflect some of the sun's heat back out to space.
  • The process is referred to as "solar geoengineering" or "solar geotechnics".
How we can curb the devastating effects of climate change is still hotly debated among politicians and scientists alike. NASA/SDO
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges mankind has faced up until now.
How we'll be able to curtail global warming and its devastating consequences is still very much a hot potato among politicians and scientists alike — and so far, the outcome of all these debates hasn't been particularly fruitful.
However, researchers at Harvard may have come up with a solution that sounds just a little too good to be true.
In conjunction with researchers from MIT and Princeton, the group has suggested slowing down global warming by diminishing the amount of sunlight that reaches Earth's surface.
Yes, you read that right. The technology is called solar geoengineering or solar geotechnics.
According to a study published in Nature Climate Change, the researchers are considering what might happen if they were to introduce sunlight-reflecting particles into Earth's atmosphere.
Researchers at Harvard have suggested dimming the sun as a partial solution to help slow down global warming. Shutterstock
 The most important thing to note is that the researchers aren't suggesting the method is a solution to rising global warming trends; it isn't designed to bring temperatures back to pre-industrial levels nor does it address the real crux of the problem — the amount of carbon dioxide we're producing.
In fact, too high a dose of "dimming" could even worsen the situation.
Postdoctoral research fellow at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Peter Irvine, was the lead author of the study.
As well as this measure, carbon dioxide emissions still need be reduced worldwide. J. David Ake/AP
 "The analogy is not perfect," he explained, "but solar geoengineering is a little like a drug which treats high blood pressure. An overdose would be harmful, but a well-chosen dose could reduce your risks. Of course, it's better to not have high blood pressure in the first place but once you have it, along with making healthier lifestyle choices, it's worth considering treatments that could lower your risks."
The study suggests that this technology could the rate at which temperatures are increasing in half, which could offer global benefits without exacerbating problems in other parts of the world.
Alongside this measure, however, carbon dioxide emissions would still need to be reduced across the globe.

More water and fewer hurricanes 
The scientists found that halving global warming with solar technology not only cools the planet but would also compensate for over 85% of hurricane intensity. David Goldman/AP
In order to better understand which regions might end up worse off if this geoengineering technology were combined with emission reductions, the researchers used a state-of-the-art, high-resolution model to simulate extreme rainfall and tropical hurricanes.
This is the first time a model of this sort has been used to look into the possible effects of solar geotechnics.
The researchers studied temperature and precipitation extremes, water availability, and also measured the intensity of tropical storms.
The researchers emphasised that our main response to climate change still ought to be to cut back on carbon dioxide emissions. Gian-Reto Tarnutzer/Unsplash
They found that halving global warming via geoengineering would not only cool the planet but also moderate changes in water availability and extreme precipitation in many places.
While the science surrounding geoengineering technology is over half a century old, it's only recently — since our attention has been drawn Earth's climate change — that scientists have intensified their researched the field.
Researchers at Harvard University have stressed, however, that our main response to climate change should be to curb carbon dioxide emissions; geoengineering alone simply wouldn't be capable of fully remedying the root of the environmental problems.

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