16/04/2019

Renewable Energy Could Save $160 Trillion In Climate Change Costs by 2050

Forbes - James Ellsmoor

Key Points
  • In the face of rising global emissions, intensified electrification and an increase in renewable energy could make the difference that ensures we reach future climate goals
  • The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) recommends that nations take more aggressive actions to ensure a quick and effective transition away from fossil fuels.
In the face of rising global emissions, intensified electrification and an increase in renewable energy could make the difference that ensures we reach future climate goals.
With development and energy demands soaring worldwide, there is an opportunity for clean, renewable energy to supplant fossil fuels and take over as the main form of electricity generation.
New findings published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) have emphasized the need to scale up efforts to transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy.
The Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050 outlines how the world can successfully implement large-scale renewable programs that will not only help reduce carbon emissions but improve global socioeconomic development.
A demonstrator is detained for sitting in the road at Oxford Circus in London, Friday, April 12, 2019. Young protestors took to the streets after a government report has revealed that the nation is set to miss its emissions targets. ASSOCIATED PRESS
The analysis provided by IRENA shows that global energy demands are expected to double by 2050, and that 86% of global electrical needs could be met by renewable energy within that same timeframe. A large scale up from current levels, the extra energy load would be carried mostly by wind and solar installations.

Barriers To Change
Despite the optimistic outlook, IRENA warns that more needs to be done in order to reach the goal they anticipated. IRENA’s Director-General Francesco La Camera explains that, “The energy transformation is gaining momentum, but it must accelerate even faster, The UN’s 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda and the review of national climate pledges under the Paris Agreement are milestones for raising the level of ambition. Urgent action on the ground at all levels is vital, in particular unlocking the investments needed to further strengthen the momentum of this energy transformation. Speed and forward-looking leadership will be critical – the world in 2050 depends on the energy decisions we take today.”
Donald Trump says he is imposing new tariffs to "protect American jobs and American workers." Trump acted to impose new tariffs on imported solar-energy components and large washing machines in a bid to help U.S. manufacturers. ASSOCIATED PRESS
Whilst the push for renewable energy certainly has its benefits, there remains a wide range of obstacles in the way of their large-scale development and implementation. For example, the past two years have seen the United States’ solar industry lose momentum over President Donald Trump’s tariffs, whilst lawmakers in Australia are failing to adhere to the nation’s COP21 emissions reduction goals and have continued on with their plans to open the world’s largest open-air coal mine despite widespread public condemnation. These political setbacks are relatively widespread and have been reducing the ability of the renewable energy sector to efficiently evolve and develop, and could have a lasting impact on global emissions.

A Time For Action
IRENA’s report has noted that transitions have been slow and that current rates of emission reduction are not in line with global climate goals. The report recommends that nations take more aggressive actions to ensure a quick and effective transition away from fossil fuels that will help reach the previously agreed-upon goals and ensure that mitigation of climate change remains a priority. In order to do so, IRENA advocates for stronger national policy focusing on long-term zero-carbon strategies as well as promoting innovation in the fields of renewable energy, technology and smart-grids.
Commenting on the report’s findings, La Camera said that “The race to secure a climate safe future has entered a decisive phase. Renewable energy is the most effective and readily-available solution for reversing the trend of rising CO2 emissions. A combination of renewable energy with deeper electrification can achieve 75% of the energy-related emission reduction needed.” What La Camera is describing has already happened in many places worldwide - many islands have been leading the charge in renewable energy transitions, and are becoming incubators for energy innovation.

Race Against The Clock
The benefits stemming from embracing clean, renewable energy go a lot farther than just reducing pollution and carbon emissions. IRENA has illustrated the risks of a slow transition, and every year that carbon emissions increase is another year that negatively affects the environment, social welfare, and the wider economy. Likewise, IRENA has also been quick to point out the knock-on effects of a renewable energy transition in its report, outlining how a rapid transition could save the global economy US$160 trillion in costs associated with climate change.
A chinstrap penguin walks past the Quito Glacier near Ecuador's Pedro Vicente Maldonado Research Station on Greenwich Island, Antarctica, which conducts research, develop sscientific exploration and to documents the environmental impacts on glaciers, flora and fauna in the region.
“The shift towards renewables makes economic sense,” emphasizes La Camera. “By mid-century, the global economy would be larger, and jobs created in the energy sector would boost global employment by 0.2%. Policies to promote a just, fair and inclusive transition could maximize the benefits for different countries, regions and communities. This would also accelerate the achievement of affordable and universal energy access. The global energy transformation goes beyond a transformation of the energy sector. It is a transformation of our economies and societies.”
With time of the essence as nations grapple to reduce the current and future effects of climate change, IRENA’s report punctuates the emergency of the situation - but also how beneficial an efficient transition away from fossil fuels will be for the economy.

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Poll Shows 50% Of Australians Support Shifting All Sales Of New Cars To Electric Vehicles By 2025

The Guardian - 

Transition to electric vehicles to cut carbon emissions has dominated climate policy debate in the Australian election campaign
Bill Shorten charges an electric car after launching Labor’s climate change action plan. A car manufacturer has called for an end to Coalition ‘fear-mongering’ over electric vehicles. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
One in two Australians would support shifting all sales of new cars to electric vehicles by 2025, according to polling by the Australia Institute.
The progressive thinktank surveyed a nationally representative sample 0f 1,536 Australians about their attitudes to electric vehicles. It found support was similar across all states and territories, including 52% in Victoria and Western Australia, 49% in Queensland and 48% in New South Wales.
Twenty-eight per cent of those surveyed were opposed to the idea.
The poll was conducted online between 20 February and 4 March, with representative samples by gender, age and state and territory.
Release of the polling comes at the end of a week in which the transition to electric vehicles in order to cut Australia’s carbon emissions from transport, which make up 19% of all emissions, has dominated debate about climate policy before the election.


Federal election week one roundup: Coalition short-circuits over electric cars.

Carmakers have signalled they are making the shift, with Hyundai Motor Group calling for an end to “fear-mongering” over new vehicle technologies.
On Friday, the independent senator Tim Storer, who chaired a Senate committee inquiry into electric vehicles, said he was “deeply concerned” by what he saw as an anti-technology scare campaign being run by some within the government and the media.
“It is akin to someone in 1990 arguing mobile phones were not going to take off. It flies in the face of fact, and the public should not buy it.”
Several countries have already announced they will ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars in coming years, including Norway, the Netherlands, India, Ireland, Israel, the UK, France, Spain and China.
In the Australia Institute’s poll, more than half of Labor voters (56%) supported the idea that 100% of new vehicle sales be electric by 2025, and 65% of Greens voters.
Forty-two per cent of Coalition voters were in favour, versus 38% who were opposed, with the remainder unsure.
Respondents were also asked if they would support or oppose a national program to switch to an electrically charged transport system, including public transport.
Overall, 62% supported this idea, including 55% of Coalition voters, 71% of Labor voters, 78% of Greens voters and 54% of those who vote for other parties or independents. Some of the strongest support for this idea was among Queensland (62%) and Western Australia (68%) respondents.
“Australians already have a strong appetite for electric vehicles, with 50% interested in purchasing an electric vehicle by 2025 – a full five years earlier than Labor’s EV target and significantly faster than the government’s strategy” Richie Merzian, the climate and energy program director at the Australia Institute, said.
“Australia Institute research shows that Australians across all parties support a national electric vehicle policy – all that’s missing is policy leadership.”
The major parties have clashed over electric vehicle policy this week, with the prime minister, Scott Morrison, criticising Labor’s target for 50% of new vehicles to be electric by 2030.
He later backtracked to say the issue “isn’t about electric cars, this is about the fact that Bill Shorten can’t explain what his policies mean to Australians”.
Australia lags behind most other OECD countries in implementing clear emissions policies for transport.
Hyundai said this week the next government needed a clear policy on vehicles, including vehicle emissions standards that have driven the switch to EVs in the northern hemisphere.
Merzian said Australia could also look to countries such as Norway, which has introduced incentives such as making electric vehicles exempt from sales tax, waiving fees for road tolls and parking, and providing rebates on registration of electric vehicles.
Merzian said such targets only seemed out of reach for Australia because the country was so far behind in policy and infrastructure.
“Instead of driving Australia backwards by preserving our gas-guzzlers, any future government should look to the fine example of countries like Norway who already reached 50% of new car registrations as EVs in 2018 by using popular public incentives to accelerate electric vehicle uptake,” he said.

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Doctors Warn Australian Health System Not Prepared For Climate Change

National Geographic - Angela Heathcote

These doctors join in a chorus of outcries about climate change from some of the country’s most respected professions.
WITH MORE bushfires, floods and other natural disasters predicted for Australia’s future, some Australian doctors say the country’s health system is unprepared for the fallout.
Today, doctors and public health experts published an article in the Medical Journal of Australia, the official journal of the Australian Medical Association (AMA), calling for a more resilient health system, recommending three fundamental changes.
  • A whole-of-system approach, integrating all elements of population health and health care throughout the continuum of preparedness, response, and recovery.
  • Improve the timeliness of surveillance as current disease notification systems are slow.
  • Determine the standards of care relevant to particular situations.
Dr Gerard J. Fitzgerald, from QUT’s School of Public Health and Social Work, Professor Anthony Capon from the University of Sydney and psychiatrist Dr Peter Aitken of Queensland Health says that natural disasters of the 2018-19 summer made it clear that the health system has to be strengthened.
Dr Fitzgerald believes that the medical profession understands climate change and the impacts it may pose to the health system.
“The vast majority understand climate change and its impacts on the health profession. Doctors are scientifically trained. Anyone scientifically trained gets it. But there’s need for awareness about its impacts on the health system.”
The article was published in advance of the 21st biennial congress of the World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WADEM), which will be held in Brisbane in May.

How will climate change affect the health of Australians?
According to the researchers, the health threats presented by climate change will vary according to geographic location.
“The rise in temperatures will not be consistent across the planet, and may increase or reduce local rainfall, depending on other factors,” they write.
“The effects of climate change will also vary regionally as individuals and societies adapt behaviourally, structurally, and physiologically.”
The primary threats, specifically caused by rising temperatures include heat stress, hyperpyrexia and heat stroke, and indirectly through their impact on individuals with
chronic cardiovascular, respiratory and renal diseases or mental health problems.
Rising temperatures also has been shown to change the distributions of allergens and pathogens and their vectors.
“These effects can be moderated by adaptive strategies but exacerbated by other factors, such as pollution and humidity, as well as by dehydration, exercise, and infectious diseases and other health conditions,” they say.

Mental health impacts
According to Dr Fitzgerald, the medical profession has to increase its awareness of not just the direct impacts of natural disasters, but also the indirect impacts.
“If you think of a disaster, such as a cyclone or flood, there are people directly affected. The directly affected are those who might drown in a flood or are injured by a falling building during a cyclone.
“The indirect effects are less obvious. There are mental health consequences if someone loses their home or a loved one. What’s even more stressful is fighting with insurance companies three years after the event. They’re battling with questions such as where to live or what they’re going to do with the kids.”
Those most adversely affected by the indirect and direct impacts of climate change, Dr Fitzgerald says, are people of poorer communities.
“It’s too late to reverse climate change so now we have to adapt. The people who have the economic power to adapt will cope better. People who can’t afford that are the people at greater risk from heat waves and other natural disasters.
“People living in low lying easily flooded areas such as those in Queensland, where property is cheap, hits poorer populations. Natural disasters are well known to affect poorer populations.”

The recommendations
One of the three recommendations put forward in article is “a whole-of-system and comprehensive approach” to help the Australian health system prepare for climate-related disasters and emergencies, according to Dr Fitzgerald.
“Identifying immediate direct effects (injuries and deaths) is relatively straightforward but longer term impacts and indirect health consequences are less clear,” he says.
“For example Hurricane Maria killed 64 people in Puerto Rico in 2017 but the estimated all-cause increased mortality for the following three months was 4645.”
The example of Hurricane Maria prompted the researchers to advocate for a whole-of-system approach that starts with preparedness through to recovery.
The second recommendation requires an improvement in disease notification systems, which currently rely on individuals recognising and reporting emerging problems, according to the researchers.
“Enhanced real time surveillance of ambulance, emergency department and hospital capacities and of patterns of demand should enable more timely recognition of new problems and increase the response capability of the health system,” they write.
Lastly, they say the standards of care relevant to particular situations need to be determined. “In extreme events, this includes sympathetic care for people who cannot be saved,” the paper reads.
“Every day 22,000 people attend hospital emergency departments in Australia – we have never had an event with 22,000 casualties,” says Dr Fitzgerald. “We need to have scalable arrangements which can deal with the full range of challenges from the routine to the totally unexpected using standardised policies and procedures.”

Doctors, lawyers and firefighters raising their voices
The doctors behind this most recent paper join a slew of outcries concerning Australia’s lack of preparedness for the impacts of climate change from some of the country’s most respected professions.
Last week, 20 former fire and emergency chiefs warned Australia is unprepared for the impacts of climate change, asking for more “national firefighting assets.”
The second-longest serving fire and rescue commissioner in New South Wales Greg Mullins, who is now a councillor with the Climate Council, said he could no longer predict the seasons.
“I started firefighting in 1971 and the bushfire seasons were extremely predictable.
“You knew when there was a bad season coming because there was an El Nino and drought. In the 90s, I stopped being able to predict it.”
Dr Fitzgerald will speak at the 21st World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine congress on disaster preparedness.

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15/04/2019

Antarctica Is Losing Ice At An Accelerating Rate. How Much Will Sea Levels Rise?

PBS NewsHour -  |  | 

The frozen continent of Antarctica contains the vast majority of all freshwater on Earth. Now that ice is melting at an accelerating rate, in part because of climate change. What does this transformation mean for coastal communities across the globe? William Brangham reports from Antarctica on the troubling trend of ice loss and how glaciers can serve as a climate record from the past.



TRANSCRIPT
  • Judy Woodruff:
    We continue now with our series from Antarctica.
    The ice-covered continent is being transformed in part by climate change. Antarctica's ice, which contains the vast majority of freshwater on Earth, is melting at an accelerating rate.
    William Brangham and producers Mike Fritz and Emily Carpeaux traveled there and have this report on how coastal communities all over the world could be impacted.
    It's part of our occasional series of reports, Peril and Promise: The Challenge of Climate Change.
  • William Brangham:
    For as far as the eye can see, Antarctica is covered by thick sheets of ice. In some places, that ice is several miles deep.
    This massive continent, as big as the U.S. and Mexico combined, has, for millions of years, been home to some of the most breathtaking landscapes of ice on the planet.
    What you can see behind me here is a very good cross-section of a glacier in Antarctica. And what you can see, with all those different layers that is hundreds and thousands of years of snowfall and precipitation stacking up, one on top of the other, and slowly exerting pressure downward on those layers of snow. And that's basically how a glacier is formed.
    But Antarctica's ice is now increasingly being threatened, and most researchers believe it's because of climate change. According to one recent study, the continent's ice is slipping away six times faster than it was 40 years ago.
  • Joseph  MacGregor:
    And Antarctica is now losing 252 gigatons of ice per year.
  • William Brangham:
    Glaciologist Joe MacGregor is part of the team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center that's studying Antarctica's ice.
    Using radar and lasers, they measure the thickness of the ice, how it's moving, and whether it's growing or shrinking.
    This animation they built shows a sped-up version of how the ice flows on the continent.
    Help me understand what that means, 252 gigatons.
  • Joseph  MacGregor:
    A gigaton is a billion metric tons of ice. And when you do the math, you wind up with the Antarctic ice sheet is out of balance by more than three-and-a-half swimming pools per second.
  • William Brangham:
    Every second, three Olympic-sized swimming pools worth of ice is disappearing from Antarctica?
  • Joseph  MacGregor:
    Yes, when considered on average over the year.
  • William Brangham:
    Just to put that in perspective, in the amount of time it takes to watch this story, Antarctica will shed more water than New York City uses every day.
    The warming that is causing this ice loss varies in different parts of the continent. Here on the peninsula, the long branch of land coming on the northwest corner of the continent, warming has been especially pronounced.
    At the Vernadsky research station, which is run by the Ukrainian government, meteorologists like Oleksandr Poluden have been keeping some of the longest-term temperature records on the continent. While it's warmed and cooled at different times, Poluden says the overall trend here on the peninsula is clear.
  • Oleksandr Poluden (through translator):
    You will notice that the temperature doesn't tend to increase all the time, as there are certain fluctuations from year to year. However, it becomes evident that, over about 70 years, the average year-round temperature has increased by 3.5 degrees.
  • Michael Oppenheimer:
    It's becoming clearer that parts of Antarctica appear to be unstable and are losing ice much faster than we expected.
  • William Brangham:
    Michael Oppenheimer is a climate scientist and professor of geoscience at Princeton University. He says this ice loss will only accelerate sea level rise, which happens for two reasons.
    One, a warming atmosphere warms the oceans, and warmer water expands and rises. Secondly, warming also melts ice and glaciers all over the world, sending new water into the ocean.
  • Michael Oppenheimer:
    So, ultimately, if we lose all the ice that's vulnerable to a warming of only a few degrees, we're talking about a very, very, very big sea level rise.
  • William Brangham:
    The most recent U.N. report predicts a foot of sea level rise this century if we continue burning oil and gas and coal at our current pace.
    But a growing number of researchers believe that, because of the emissions we have already put up into the atmosphere, that prediction understates the threat.
  • Alexandra Isern:
    the continent's warming from below and also, you know, from above.
  • William Brangham:
    Alexandra Isern oversees all Antarctic science for the National Science Foundation, who, for the record, is a "NewsHour" underwriter.
    She says that, in West Antarctica, two huge glaciers, Pine Island and Thwaites, are considered at serious risk of collapse.
  • Alexandra Isern:
    There's some researchers that study Pine Islands and the Thwaites Glacier that feel that it's become sufficiently destabilized that it won't — that we won't be able to recover.
  • William Brangham:
    Michael Oppenheimer says, if just one of those glaciers winds up in the ocean, sea levels will rise five times higher than the U.N. predicted.
  • Michael Oppenheimer:
    The current estimates are, if Thwaites Glacier were to totally disintegrate into the ocean, that, ultimately, sea level would rise by something like five feet.
    In areas around some of our biggest cities, New York, Boston, Miami, where you have got a lot of development, homes, buildings, infrastructure, like roads, very close to sea level, how do you defend those?
    How would Bangladesh protect itself? It's got many hundred of miles of coastline. It's all right at sea level. You can't build a wall to protect that whole coast. There's actually nothing that can be done.
  • William Brangham:
    That's millions of people that are going to have to move.
  • Michael Oppenheimer:
    Right. There are 150 million people that live in Bangladesh, and probably a few million of them would have to move back. Where are they going to go in such a densely populated country?
    And there's already strife when people try to move into India. People get killed trying to do that now. What's going to happen when you have a few million people that all of a sudden try to move? It's not a pretty picture.
  • William Brangham:
    Part of the reason Antarctica's glaciers are threatened is that they have been losing some crucial protection. Many glaciers form what are known as ice shelves, huge platforms of ice, some as wide as Texas and hundreds of stories tall, that grow out over the ocean and help hold their much larger glaciers up on land.
    They hold it back and not let it slide into the sea.
  • Robin Bell:
    Imagine a piece of ice the size of Texas. Pretty thick. It's going to slow the ice as it tries to flow into the ocean.
  • William Brangham:
    Robin Bell of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory has been studying Antarctica's ice for over 20 years.
  • Robin Bell:
    Ice shelves are very important. They are essentially acting as bouncers in the bar, leaning up against the door and keeping the ice from flowing into the ocean.
  • William Brangham:
    But as the atmosphere keeps warming, major ice shelves in Antarctica have also been collapsing. In 2002, the Larsen B Ice Shelf, the size of Rhode Island, completely disintegrated. These are satellite images of it breaking into hundreds of pieces.
    As predicted, the glaciers that Larsen B anchored up on land began accelerating towards the ocean. And then, two years ago, the even bigger Larsen C Shelf — this is it from the air — developed that miles-long crack in it. This shelf, which sits in front of the Thwaites Glacier, is also crumbling. And part of the Brunt Ice Shelf is expected to break off any day now, releasing an iceberg that'll be twice the size of Manhattan.
    There's still some debate over whether human-induced warming is the only thing causing these changes. Antarctica has lost ice many times before, and that also caused the seas to rise. Researchers are now trying to determine how much warmth it takes to cause truly catastrophic sea level rise.
    That massive glazer that you see behind me connects all the way up above those peaks to the enormous West Antarctic Ice Sheet. And all of that ice and snow contains a remarkable history of Earth's past climate.
  • Alexandra Isern:
    It's like a tape recorder, a 10,000-foot tape recorder in places. And so scientists have drilled ice cores through the layers as far down as they can get, and then they analyze those layers.
  • William Brangham:
    Glaciologist Robert Mulvaney — that's him in the black cap — works for the British Antarctic Survey. He and a small team have been drilling over 2,000 feet down into the ice sheet, and pulling out these ice cores.
  • Robert Mulvaney:
    What we have been trying to do is recover a climate record over the last glacial cycle, so the last 120,000 to 140,000 years, to try to understand how our climate might change over the next hundred years or so, as we — as the climate responds to increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
  • William Brangham:
    The evidence from these cores and many others indicate that when the Earth's climate was just a little bit warmer than it is today, the world's oceans were over twenty feet higher.
  • Robert Mulvaney:
    So, 120,000 years ago, when the climate was probably two degrees warmer than today, the sea level was maybe six to nine meters higher than today.
  • William Brangham:
    Given the uncertainties over how serious sea level rise will be, and over what time span it'll occur, Michael Oppenheimer argues that there's still time to act and to prepare.
  • Michael Oppenheimer:
    It doesn't mean we should all throw up our hands and run.
    Let's start thinking straight, let's start thinking fast about how we're going to help people, how we're going to help settlements, how we're going to help countries deal with the outcome, because a lot of it is not going to be pretty. It's going to be expensive, and it's going to be disruptive, if we don't get our act together now.
  • William Brangham:
    This year, teams from several different nations are studying the Thwaites Glacier, trying to determine whether it's past the point of no return, and, if so, how soon its ice could end up in the ocean.
    For the "PBS NewsHour," I'm William Brangham in Antarctica.
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What Survival Looks Like After The Oceans Rise

New York Times - Photographs Andrea Frazzetta

At the site of a Bangladeshi town lost to devastating storms, locals make do by scavenging what remains.
Hunting for bricks on the flooded coastline of Bangladesh. Andrea Frazzetta/Institute, for The New York Times
Standing sometimes waist-deep in seawater on the shores of the Bay of Bengal in Bangladesh, they work to find bricks, dig them out of the sludge and cart them to the side of the road to sell. The job is new, a result of devastating storm surges a little more than a decade ago. In 2007, and then again in 2009, cyclones battered the coastline just south of Kuakata, destroying homes and structures and drowning entire villages. The storms submerged forests of mangroves and left 99 local residents dead.
The sisters Kulsum and Komola Begum survived. Now they scavenge, looking for debris. They wait until low tide, when the receding waves reveal the rubble. Once they’ve wheeled bricks to the embankment, they break them into small, chestnut-size pieces. These shards are used in the foundations for homes in the new village, a mile up the shore.
Despite being responsible for only 0.3 percent of the emissions that cause global warming, Bangladesh is near the top of the Global Climate Risk Index, a ranking of 183 countries and territories most vulnerable to climate change. When scientists and researchers predict how global warming will affect populations, they usually use 20- and 50-year trajectories. For Bangladesh, the effects of climate change are happening now. Cyclones are growing stronger as temperatures rise and are occurring with more frequency.
Researchers warn that within a few decades, Bangladesh may lose more than 10 percent of its land to sea-level rise, displacing as many as 18 million people. Decisions to leave coastal communities aren’t really decisions at all. Families leave because there are no other options. There is no work. There are no homes. Over the past decade, an average of 700,000 Bangladeshis a year migrated because of natural disasters, moving to Dhaka to live in sprawling slums as climate refugees. Kulsum and Komola have managed to forge opportunity from disaster; they will stay, for now. They will continue to collect bricks to build the new village, even if the new village will most likely meet the same fate as the old one. — Jaime Lowe
A gathering at Komola Begum’s home, from left: Her father, Abdul Latif Howlader; Komola; her son Nur-un-Nabi; her sister Kulsum Begum; and a neighbor. Andrea Frazzetta/Institute, for The New York Times
 Making a Living in the Ruins
The sisters Kulsum and Komola Begum make a living scavenging bricks, which they sell to construction workers for roughly $1.40 a sack.
During monsoon season, when currents are stronger and tides wash away the sand, the family can bag 60 to 70 sacks. Over all, they earn enough to send the children to school and buy uniforms and books.
A neighbor. Andrea Frazzetta/Institute, for The New York Times
Kulsum Begum and her granddaughter Marium. Andrea Frazzetta/Institute, for The New York Times
Komola Begum’s sons sometimes help their mother collect the bricks. “When I can earn, my children can eat. If I don’t, they will starve,” Komola said. “I do this for my kids.”
Nur-un-Nabi and Bellal Nabi. Andrea Frazzetta/Institute, for The New York Times
Her son Nur-un-Nabi plays outside his family’s home, which is surrounded by fields of rice and grasses. When he is not at school, and not helping his mother on the shore, Nur-un-Nabi can often be found running on thin slippery dams, occasionally chasing a water snake slithering out of the flooded rice fields.
Andrea Frazzetta/Institute, for The New York Times
The dozen miles of beach crowns the tourist town of Kuakata, roughly two hundred miles south of Dhaka. The beach is surrounded by forests of mangroves and palm plantations, which are falling victim to increasingly aggressive cyclones, tidal surges and rising seas. ‘‘When we were young, the old people used to say that the sea was very far from here,’’ Komola said. ‘‘They packed up their meals and walked their way to the sea. But now you can reach it in no time.’’
Andrea Frazzetta/Institute, for The New York Times
Komola Begum loads bricks onto a cart that her son Bellal Nabi will pedal a few hundred yards along a path of hard-beaten earth up to an embankment where the bricks will be unloaded and broken into smaller chunks.
Andrea Frazzetta/Institute, for The New York Times
Nur-un-Nabi breaks bricks, while his aunt Kulsum does the same a short distance away. The piles of bricks rest on an embankment that was recently raised to make it more resistant to cyclones. The Begum families’ homes are about a hundred yards from the embankment — which the more pessimistic local residents expect will withstand just a few more cyclones before being washed away.
Andrea Frazzetta/Institute, for The New York Times
Komola and Kulsum Begum load a bag of brick for a client. A bag can be as heavy as 40 kilos, and the two sisters often help each other with the task. “It is a good business so far,” Komola said. “Sometimes we get pre-orders, and this is good money.”
Andrea Frazzetta/Institute, for The New York Times
At each low tide, new scraps of bricks are revealed in the mud. A few decades ago, Komola Begum recalled, there were fishing villages here, and roads, rice fields and plantations.
“Some bricks come from the fishing nets,” where they are used as weights, she said. “We don’t know where the others come from.” She assumes that many come from homes that have been swept away. “Now everything is under the sea,” she said from the beach, pointing toward the ocean.
Andrea Frazzetta/Institute, for The New York Times
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Radical Climate Action 'Critical' To Great Barrier Reef's Survival, Government Body Says

Fairfax - Nicole Hasham

Australia’s top Great Barrier Reef officials warn the natural wonder will virtually collapse if the planet becomes 1.5 degrees hotter – a threshold that scientists say requires shutting down coal within three decades.
This federal election campaign is a potential tipping point for Australia’s direction on climate action, as the major parties pledge distinctly different ambitions for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
However neither party has rejected the proposed Adani mine outright or promised to phase out coal, an export on which Australia is heavily reliant.
The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority says limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees is "critical".
Climate change has already wrought devastating effects on the World Heritage-listed Great Barrier Reef, including two consecutive years of mass coral bleaching in 2016 and 2017.
In response to the threat, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority – the federal government’s lead agency for managing the reef – has prepared a climate change position statement.
The document, obtained by the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age under freedom of information laws, has not been released to the general public despite being in development for the past 15 months.
It states that limiting the average global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees or below since industrial times began – the higher end of the Paris agreement target - “is critical to maintain the ecological function of the Great Barrier Reef”. The world has already warmed by 1 degree.
Ecological function refers to roles performed by the reef's plants, animals and habitats, including providing a tourist experience. The authority has said these processes are necessary for the reef to exist.
The document cites scientific evidence that the reef could experience temperature-induced bleaching events twice per decade by about 2020 and annually by 2050 under high-emissions scenarios.
The IPCC says the global coal industry must virtually shut down by 2030 to prevent catastrophic climate change. Credit: Fairfax Media
The authority has long said climate change is the greatest threat facing the reef. However climate action advocates say to date, it has not sufficiently emphasised the repercussions of exceeding a 1.5-degree temperature rise.
A report prepared by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in October last year said it was possible to keep warming below 1.5 degrees, but only with "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society".
This included phasing out coal-generated electricity globally by 2050, unless unproven technology to capture carbon dioxide from coal plants was deployed.
The Morrison government has pledged to cut Australia’s emissions by 26 per cent by 2030, based on 2005 levels. Experts say the target is not in line with keeping global warming below even 2 degrees.
The government has been plagued by internal divisions over emissions and insists coal has a strong future in Australia.
It has backed the controversial Adani mine and is considering underwriting new coal-fired generation projects in a bid to boost energy reliability and affordability.
By 2030, Labor wants half of Australia’s electricity needs met from renewable sources and a 45 per cent cut to national emissions. It says a transition away from coal is inevitable, but has no plans to shut down the industry. It has expressed scepticism about the Adani mine's future but has not pledged to stop it if Labor wins government.
The Greens say that by 2030, thermal coal exports and coal burning in Australia should cease.
WWF-Australia head of oceans Richard Leck said the reef authority’s explicit recognition of the need to stay below 1.5 degrees of warming was a “long time coming”.
“Now [a government agency] has made it absolutely clear that we need a climate policy that is consistent with 1.5 degrees or lower. We absolutely need to see that backed up by substance,” he said.
Fish swim among bleached coral in the Great Barrier Reef. Credit: Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
University of Queensland marine scientist Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a lead author on IPCC reports, said the Morrison government was displaying “cognitive dissonance” by signing the Paris treaty but not taking strong climate action.
“You can’t have the Great Barrier Reef and the Adani mine, and what that [mine] represents in terms of future resource extraction. It is simply a big contradiction.”
Professor Hoegh-Guldberg said Labor’s 45 per cent target aligned “with the very best science coming from the international community”.
Labor’s climate change and energy spokesman, Mark Butler, said the party “agrees that climate change poses a severe risk to the Great Barrier Reef and real action is long overdue”.
A spokesman for Environment Minister Melissa Price said limiting climate change was important for the reef but it was "a global problem requiring a global solution, and Australia is playing its part".
He cited the Coalition's $3.5 billion carbon solutions package and commitment to the Paris treaty and the $443.3 million grant to the Great Barrier Reef Foundation to improve the reef's health.

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14/04/2019

Tip The Planet: Tackling Climate Change With Small, Sensitive Interventions

The Conversation - Matthew Carl Ives | Penny Mealy | Thom Wetzer

Sonpichit Salangsing/Shutterstock
Search online for “climate change” and “tipping points” and you’ll find some scary results. Melting ice sheets, the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation , the permafrost methane “time bomb” and the die-back of the Amazon rainforest threaten to exacerbate the climate crisis and send global warming spiralling out of control.
But what if we could leverage similar tipping point dynamics to solve the climate problem? Like physical or environmental systems, socioeconomic and political systems can also exhibit nonlinear dynamics. Memes on the internet can go viral, loan defaults can cascade into financial crises, and public opinion can shift in rapid and radical ways.
In an article just out in Science, we outline a new approach to climate change that tries to find areas in socioeconomic and political systems that are “sensitive” – where modest but well-timed interventions could generate outsized impacts and accelerate progress towards a post-carbon world.

Sensitive Intervention Points (SIPs)
These “Sensitive Intervention Points” – or SIPs – could trigger self-reinforcing feedback loops, which can amplify small changes to produce outsized effects. Take, for example, solar photovoltaics. As more solar panels are produced and deployed, costs fall through “learning-by-doing” as practice, market testing and incremental innovation make the whole process cheaper.
Cost reductions lead to greater demand, further deployment, more learning-by-doing, more cost reductions and so on. However, the spread of renewables isn’t just dependent on technology and cost improvements. Social dynamics can also play a major role. As people observe their neighbours installing rooftop solar panels they might be more inclined to do so themselves. This effect could cause a shift in cultural and social norms.
Financial markets are another key area where SIPs could help accelerate the transition to post-carbon societies. Many companies are currently failing to disclose and account for climate risks associated with assets on their balance sheet. Climate risk can entail physical risks, caused by extreme weather or flooding. They can also entail the risk of assets such as fossil fuel reserves becoming stranded as economies transition to limit warming to 1.5℃ or 2℃, when such resources are no longer valuable.
Oil and other fossil fuel reserves could become stranded assets. The Sun photo/Shutterstock
Most of the world’s current fossil fuel reserves can’t be used if the world is to limit warming and they become effectively worthless once this is acknowledged. By not accounting for these risks to fossil fuel assets, high-emission industries are effectively given an advantage over low-carbon alternatives that shouldn’t exist. Relatively modest changes to accounting and disclosure guidelines could make a significant difference.
If companies are required to disclose information about the climate risks associated with their assets – and if such disclosure is consistent and comparable across companies – investors can make more informed decisions and the implicit subsidy enjoyed by high-emission industries is likely to rapidly disappear.
Opportunities for triggering SIPs in a given system can also change over time. Sometimes “windows of opportunity” open up, where very unlikely changes become possible. A key example in the UK was the political climate in 2007-2008 which enabled the 2008 UK Climate Change Act to pass with near unanimous support. This national legislation was the first of its kind and committed the UK to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% relative to 1990 levels by 2050.
The act also created a regular ratcheting cycle which encourages more ambitious future climate action. Since 2008, emissions in the UK have fallen dramatically. However, the UK Climate Change Act’s influence beyond the UK is also significant as it encouraged similar legislation in other countries, including the Paris Agreement, which contains the same self-reinforcing ratcheting mechanism.



Using SIPs for rapid change
Thinking about SIPs in policy and business could accelerate the post-carbon transition – but much work lies ahead. The first step is to systematically identify potential SIPs and the mechanisms by which they can be amplified.
Unfortunately, traditional economic models commonly used to evaluate climate policy are poorly equipped to do this, but new analytical methods are increasingly being used in policy.
These new methods could provide more accurate insights into the costs, benefits and possibilities of SIPs for addressing climate change. As SIPs could be present in all spheres of life, experts in social and natural sciences will need to work together.
The window to avert catastrophic climate change is closing fast, but with intelligent interventions at sensitive points in the system, we believe success is still possible. Since the stakes are so high – and the time frame so limited – it is not possible to chase every seemingly promising idea. But with a smart, strategic approach to unleashing feedback mechanisms and exploiting critical windows of opportunity in systems that are ripe for change, we may just be able to tip the planet onto a post-carbon trajectory.

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