Climate Change Is A National Security Issue

The Interpreter Lowy Institute - Pat Conroy

The Morrison government’s Pacific “Step Up” will stumble before it starts unless global warming is taken seriously.

An Australian army vehicle in floodwaters near the Queensland town of Bowen in March 2017 following Cyclone Debbie (Photo: Peter Parks via Getty)

If only a minister of the Morrison government would be as forthright in identifying climate change as a massive destabilising force in Australia’s region as the Chief of the Defence Force Angus Campbell has been.
In a private speech in Bowral in June, General Campbell is reported to have sounded a clear warning that climate change and Australia’s national security are inextricably linked. We live in the most disaster-prone region in the world – he is reported to have said – and a further rise in global temperatures would likely put more pressure on the Australian Defence Force’s ability to respond.
In 2016, Australia’s Defence White Paper identified the risk that climate change would drive natural disasters and political instability in the Pacific. As the number of disasters increase, so do the number of disaster relief missions that are likely to involve the Australian Defence Force.
Since that White Paper the ADF has supported disaster relief missions in Fiji, Tonga, Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and New Zealand, as well as in Queensland and the Northern Territory following cyclones, and New South Wales and South Australia following floods. Those missions involve thousands of troops at a time, some times more than Australia deployed at the height of our involvement in Afghanistan. For example, we sent 1,000 troops to support Operation Fiji Assist, about 1,600 to help after Cyclone Debbie hit Queensland, and close to 3,000 to help North Queensland clean up after floods earlier this year.

Flooding from the sea leaves damaged roads in Kirbati (Photo: Jonas Gratzer via Getty)

Disaster relief takes resources. Indeed, the largest vessels our Navy has ever deployed – HMAS Adelaide and HMAS Canberra – are more often likely to be contributing to humanitarian missions in response to climate-related disasters than fulfilling a traditional combat role. General Campbell reportedly reiterated what Pacific leaders have been telling us for years – that climate change is a threat to their very existence, and they are looking to Australia to do more. Through loss of land, undermined economies, and threatened sustainability, an influx of climate refugees from affected islands would be a humanitarian disaster that could destabilise the region.
As early as 2007, then senior Papua New Guinean diplomat Robert Aisi, representing the Pacific Islands Forum, told the United Nations Security Council that Pacific islands were already impacted by climate change. Aisi spoke about how Cyclone Heta had left one-fifth of the population of Niue homeless in 2004. How the Cook Islands had experienced five cyclones in one month when previously they were uncommon. How PNG was experiencing more malaria and dengue fever. And how rising sea temperatures and winds were expected to push major tuna stocks westwards, causing economic problems. He said:

the impact of climate change on small islands was no less threatening than the dangers guns and bombs posed to large nations.

Leaders from Fiji and the Solomon Islands have made similar pleas. And as recently as last month, New Zealand Foreign Minister Winton Peters said that any country that wanted to “step up” in the Pacific needed to take climate change concerns seriously.

It is not that climate change itself causes conflict, but it puts pressure on natural resources, on the security of land, water, health and food which are critical to human survival.

In the US, the military understands the risk climate change poses to security. US military combatant commands are integrating climate-related impacts into their planning cycles. They are doing this because the Pentagon understands that climate change will “aggravate problems such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership and weak political institutions that threaten stability in a number of countries”.
In April, the US Air Force Chief of Staff General David L. Goldfein, cited the conflict in Syria as an example of how climate change’s impact is already destabilising some nations. “Most don’t remember what caused the Syria conflict to start,” he told a Senate Armed Forces Committee. “It started because of a 10-year drought.”
It is not that climate change itself causes conflict, but it puts pressure on natural resources, on the security of land, water, health and food which are critical to human survival.
The Pacific is a foreign policy priority for the Morrison government, yet its “Step Up” in the region, important as it is, is being undermined by the Government’s inaction on climate change.
The Pacific Islands Forum’s Boe Declaration, signed last year, identified climate change as the number one existential threat to the region, yet it’s well known that the Australian government did everything it could to seek to water down that declaration. In diplomatic forums in the Pacific, Australia is seen to be acting to remove words around climate change from communiques and negotiating positions. This undermines the entire region’s attempts to adapt to climate change, and would appear to undermine what General Campbell says is the ADF’s position, in that they have been preparing for the impact of climate change “for years”.
Recently Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape agreed to work towards elevating the relationship between our countries to the status of a Comprehensive Strategic and Economic Partnership, a move which Labor welcomes.
But without adequate development funding and without addressing climate change, the Morrison Government’s Pacific Step Up stumbles before it starts.
Morrison must, as General Campbell does, recognise the intrinsic link between climate change in the Pacific and Australian national security. The Government must act to mitigate climate change – making sure the Paris Treaty is implemented properly so that we limit global warming, the effects of climate change in the Pacific and the potential destabilisation of our region.

Links

• Australia’s Climate Stance Is Inflicting Criminal Damage On Humanity
• A Brief Introduction To Climate Change And National Security
• Australia’s Strategic Thinkers Can’t Continue To Ignore Climate Change
• Young Climate Activists ‘Most At Risk’ Of Being Spied On By AFP
• Defence Chief Sounds Warning On Surge Of Climate Change Refugees
• Defence Lacks 'Overarching Strategy' To Deal With Climate Change Conflict, Internal Notes Warn
• Defence Chief Sounds Climate Warning
• Climate Change Poses Security Risks, According To Decades Of Intelligence Reports
• Veterans Are Concerned About Climate Change, And That Matters

Here’s How The Hottest Month In Recorded History Unfolded Around The World

Washington Post - Brady Dennis | Andrew Freedman

Icebergs are seen at the seashore of King's Point in July in Newfoundland. Formerly the center of cod fishing, the island province now sees more and more icebergs that made their last trip from Greenland to Newfoundland. (Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images)

During the hottest month that humans have recorded, a local television station in the Netherlands aired nonstop images of wintry landscapes to help viewers momentarily forget the heat wave outside.
Officials in Switzerland and elsewhere painted stretches of rail tracks white, hoping to keep them from buckling in the extreme heat.
At the port of Antwerp, Belgium, two alleged drug dealers called police for help after they got stuck inside a sweltering shipping container filled with cocaine.
On Monday, scientists officially pronounced July 2019 the warmest month the world has experienced since record-keeping began more than a century ago.
How hot was it?
Wildfires raged across millions of acres in the Arctic. A massive ice melt in Greenland sent 197 billion tons of water pouring into the Atlantic Ocean, raising sea levels. And temperature records evaporated, one after another: 101.7 degrees Fahrenheit in Cambridge, England, and 108.7 in Paris. The same in Lingen, Germany.
“We have always lived through hot summers. But this is not the summer of our youth. This is not your grandfather’s summer,” U.N. Secretary General António Guterres told reporters as July gave way to August.

People cool off on a hot afternoon at Flushing Meadows park in New York City on July 21. (Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images)

The Copernicus Climate Change Service, a program of the European Union, calculated that last month narrowly edged out July 2016 for the ominous distinction of hottest month on record. The month beat July 2016 by about 0.07 degrees (0.04 Celsius).
Scientists found that the planet is headed for one of its hottest years, and the period from 2015 to 2019 is likely to go down as the warmest five-year period on record.
“July has rewritten climate history, with dozens of new temperature records at [the] local, national and global level,” Petteri Taalas, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, said in announcing the month’s historic implications. “This is not science fiction. It is the reality of climate change. It is happening now, and it will worsen in the future without urgent climate action."
The Copernicus ranking was generated by taking millions of readings from weather balloons, satellites, buoys and other sources on an hourly basis and feeding them into a computer model.
The results still must be checked against data from thousands of temperature-measuring sites around the world. Those readings ultimately will be reported by NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and other agencies in the coming weeks. While their rankings could vary, the final results are not likely to differ significantly, according to scientists.

An aerial image of beach umbrellas and deck chairs as beachgoers enjoy the hot weather at a beach in the Netherlands on July 24. (Sem Van Der Wal/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

Notably, July’s monthly temperature record comes without the added influence of a strong “El Niño” in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which adds heat to the oceans and atmosphere and helps boost planetary temperatures. The 2016 record, for example, occurred during a year with an extremely strong El Niño.
“While we don’t expect every year to set a new record, the fact that it’s happening every few years is a clear sign of a warming climate,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist with Berkeley Earth.
From scorching heat in Europe to gargantuan wildfires in Siberia and Alaska, the record heat of July 2019 left its mark on people and the ecosystems they depend on.

Surface air temperature anomoly for July 2019 relative to 1981-2010 

Surface air temperature anomalies during July relative to the average from 1981 through 2010. (Copernicus Climate Change Service)

Surface air temperature anomalies during July relative to the average from 1981 through 2010. (Copernicus Climate Change Service)
The monthly temperature spike was driven largely by record warmth in Western Europe, including the searing heat wave that made its way to the Arctic and culminated in one of the most significant melt events ever recorded in Greenland. The Greenland ice sheet poured 197 billion tons of water into the North Atlantic in July alone — enough to raise global sea levels by 0.5 millimeters, or 0.02 inches.
Alaska also saw its warmest month on record. There and elsewhere across the Arctic, simultaneous and massive wildfires erupted, consuming millions of acres and emitting startling amounts of greenhouse gases. Arctic sea ice was at a record low for the month.
In Canada, a military installation in Alert, Nunavut — the northernmost permanently inhabited place on Earth — recorded 69.8 degrees on July 14, breaking a record set in 1956. The average July high for the outpost, some 600 miles from the North Pole, is 44.6 degrees.
In Belgium, one zoo fed its tigers with chickens frozen in blocks of ice. In Paris, local officials set up impromptu “cooling rooms” in each neighborhood where people could find air conditioning and cold water.
In parts of Germany, authorities were forced to lower autobahn speed limits over concerns that the high-speed motorways might suffer heat damage. Undeterred, one motor scooter rider took to the roads of eastern Germany but was stopped after officers spotted him wearing nothing aside from a helmet.
Residents took matters into their own hands in the German capital of Berlin, circulating maps on social media that showed the locations of air-conditioned public spaces. Portable air conditioners and fans quickly sold out, and one company that installs air conditioners suspended its phone service. A recorded voice message cited a flood of calls that it was no longer able to handle.

Brighton beach in Brighton, Britain, on July 25. (Peter Nicholls/Reuters)

Damodhar Ughade, a cotton farmer in the village of Seeras in western India’s Vidarbha region, felt like he was reliving a nightmare in July after a devastating heat wave the month before.
While droughts due to delayed monsoons are not infrequent, this year was the worst since 1972, when scores of people left their arid villages and migrated to cities. As temperatures soared to 102 degrees, Ughade’s fields lay parched, his livestock starved, and the village ran out of drinking water.
“There were two-foot cracks in my field. It was impossible to even walk on it,” he said by phone. The lack of reliable water led women to walk two hours to other villages, carrying earthen pots on their heads in search of water. Men rented small vehicles and carried tankers to nearby cities to buy water.
The scarcity was so severe that there was not enough water to share with the oxen. About 15 died in the village, he said.
In England, 22-year-old Andrea D’Aleo had the unenviable job of shuttling passengers down the River Cam — the main river that flows through Cambridge, a scenic university town about 60 miles north of London. He was standing at the back of a long, flat-bottomed boat, digging a long pole against the river bed. Normally, he said, umbrellas are used to fend off rain showers, but on Thursday, tourists used them as parasols.
“It was challenging,” D’Aleo said of working as a tour guide in the intense heat. “I was talking to a bunch of umbrellas while dying in the sun.”
Four years ago in Paris, world leaders committed to doing all they could to prevent the globe from warming more than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (two degrees Celsius), with the goal of keeping warming to no more than 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 Celsius), compared with preindustrial levels.
But the commitments that countries made in Paris are far too modest to meet those targets. Last week, as the head of the United Nations recognized the likelihood that the world had just experienced its hottest month on record, he pleaded with national leaders to summon the will to take the kind of aggressive action that could put the globe on a more sustainable trajectory.
“This year alone, we have seen temperature records shattered from New Delhi to Anchorage, from Paris to Santiago, from Adelaide and to the Arctic Circle,” Guterres said. “If we do not take action on climate change now, these extreme weather events are just the tip of the iceberg. And, indeed, the iceberg is also rapidly melting.”

An iceberg floats near the seashore of King's Point in July in Newfoundland. (Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images)

 
Links

• July Was the Hottest Month in Recorded History
• Last Month Was the Hottest July in Recorded History
• New data reveals just how hot it was across the globe in July
• What it was like living through the hottest month in Earth’s recorded history
• Greenland Lost 12.5 Billion Tons Of Ice In One Day, A Grave Reminder Of Our Changing Planet

Greenland Lost 12.5 Billion Tons Of Ice In One Day, A Grave Reminder Of Our Changing Planet

Forbes - Trevor Nace

Getty

As many people were looking forward to the weekend last Thursday, Greenland experienced something it has never experienced in our records. The glacier-covered island lost 12.5 billion tons of ice in one day.

Scientists in Greenland took videos of raging rivers of ice melt and endless shallow seas of water on ice sheets. Meteorologists, climate scientists, and geologists all combined data to determine the exact extent of melting on the island and where it sat with regards to the world record of ice melt on Greenland.

A record-setting European heat wave hit Greenland, causing a major melt on 60 percent of its ice sheet. (Associated Press/Caspar Haarløv “Into the Ice”)

Climate Scientist Martin Stendel calculated that the amount of ice melt last Wednesday and Thursday was enough to cover the entire state of Florida in five inches of water.
The loss of 12.5 billion tons of ice in 24 hours was the largest since advance measurements began in 1950. Looking over the entire island, about 60% of the entire island's surface ice experienced melting during those days. With elevations as high as 12,000 feet and the latitude equivalent to the high northern Canadian Arctic, it is surprising that such a large portion of the island reached melting temperatures.

This is a roaring glacial melt, under the bridge to Kangerlussiauq, Greenland where it's 22C today and Danish officials say 12 billions tons of ice melted in 24 hours, yesterday. pic.twitter.com/Rl2odG4xWj

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) August 1, 2019

Many of you remember the record-breaking heatwave in July in Europe. Dozens of records were broken during this event with Paris reaching 109 degrees F. This same heatwave migrated to Greenland and caused temperatures on the island up to 30 degrees above average for this time of the year.
It is well documented by NASA and many others that high latitudes like the Arctic are warming twice as fast as the tropic.
This rapid warming is causing a positive feedback loop. The more warming in the Arctic the more melting. This melting, in turn, causes the landscape to turn from the reflective white ice/snow to sunlight absorbing dark basalts and granites. This means the more ice melts the more it will push the local temperature warmer.

The Naujatkuat River in West Greenland running high in end of July, my gauging station is perched on the bedrock. With the exceptional heat wave coming I have my fingers crossed for it not being washed away. pic.twitter.com/JPofxDIELN

— Irina Overeem (@IrinaOvereem) July 30, 2019

In total, 197 billion tons of ice melted this past month, pouring the equivalent amount of water into the Atlantic Ocean. It was enough water that satellites picked up on the change in global average sea levels from just one month of melt.
While these are summer months in Greenland, ice melt has never been this significant and the addition of ice during the winter months won't overcome the massive loss we've seen this summer and in recent summers.
What is increasingly clear is that these headlines of record-breaking heat, never before seen melting in the Arctic and unprecedented storms are becoming the new normal for our planet.
As we continue to see Earth change and we notice our local communities change we are forced to both adjust to the new normal and take a step back to evaluate how and if we will play a role as stewards on this planet.

Links

• The Greenland ice sheet poured 197 billion tons of water into the North Atlantic in July alone
• Images show staggering extent of melting on Greenland ice sheet because of heat wave
• Here’s how the hottest month in recorded history unfolded around the world
• Before and after pictures show Greenland's rapid ice melt from space
• A Heatwave in Greenland
• Historic Greenland Melt Is a “Glimpse of the Future”

Queensland Police Arrest 56 Climate Change Protesters In Brisbane

The Guardian - Ben Smee

It’s the latest climate protest by environmental group Extinction Rebellion to hit Brisbane

'Tear the system to the ground': Brisbane climate protesters chant, block street video

Queensland police have arrested and charged 56 people at continuing climate protests in Brisbane, amid accusations officers employed heavy-handed and aggressive tactics to deal with the escalating civil disobedience.

The action, which was ongoing in the city centre on Tuesday afternoon, is the latest and largest in a series of protests by the environmental group Extinction Rebellion.
The first “rebellion day” protesters stopped traffic in William Street, near the state parliament, about 7am. Police made arrests for contravening directions, obstructing traffic and breaches of the peace. Those arrested were aged 19 to 73.
One of the protesters, Ben Pennings, was arrested after crashing a press conference by the Brisbane lord mayor, Adrian Schrinner, on Tuesday morning.
Pennings raised concern police were starting to get “heavy handed” in response to the protest and anger from media outlets and the state Liberal National party.

CLIMATE PROTESTS: Police say a member of the public tackled a protester being chased by police during today's "Rebellion Day" protests in the Brisbane CBD. So far 56 people have been charged.

More tonight from 5 on 10 News First. pic.twitter.com/qcfauPBTq9

— 10 News First Queensland (@10NewsFirstQLD) August 6, 2019

“It’s a concern to see police crash tackle a young man simply trying to avoid getting off the road,” Pennings said of an incident early on Tuesday. “A doctor also protesting had to take care of him until an ambulance arrived.”

.@QldPolice starting to get heavy handed, as demanded by the @couriermail and @LNPQLD. Shame to see young people getting injured when all #ExtinctionRebellion folk so peaceful and friendly. #qldpol

— Ben Pennings (@BenPennings) August 6, 2019

Police told Fairfax media it had been “some time” since so many people have been arrested at one time in the city.
Concerns about police response follows the arrest of French journalists at Abbot Point coal terminal last month, and subsequent criticism that their actions, including the imposition of bail conditions were an “abuse of power”.
“The Queensland Police Service acknowledges the right to lawful and peaceful protest, and the QPS is committed to working with groups that are cooperative and facilitating protest through lawful activities,” police said in a statement.
“Police and partner agencies are working closely to manage the protest and minimise as much as possible disruptions to transportation networks.”
Protests, calling for action on climate change and a transition away from thermal coal, have increased in frequency and intensity since the Adani Carmichael coalmine received key approvals from the Queensland government.

Links

• I’m An Ordinary Person Who Joined An Extinction Rebellion Blockade. Here's Why You Should Too
• Young Climate Activists ‘Most At Risk’ Of Being Spied On By AFP
• US Philanthropists Vow To Raise Millions For Climate Activists
• This Is The Only Way To Tackle The Climate Emergency
• Good News For Climate Activists: Marching Might Work
• Environment Leaders Reflect On Their Role In The 'Climate Election'
• Kids Suing The US Over Climate Change Are Getting Global Support
• Students From 1,600 Cities Just Walked Out Of School To Protest Climate Change. It Could Be Greta Thunberg's Biggest Strike Yet

An Urgent Call To Protect The World's "Third Pole"

TED - Tshering Tobgay

Tshering Tobgay Tshering Tobgay is the president of the People's Democratic Party in Bhutan. He served as the leader of the opposition party in the National Assembly of Bhutan from 2008 to 2013 and as Prime Minister from 2013 to 2018. Tshering Tobgay has an undergraduate degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Pittsburgh and a master's in public administration from Harvard University.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya region is the world's third-largest repository of ice, after the North and South Poles -- and if current melting rates continue, two-thirds of its glaciers could be gone by the end of this century.
What will happen if we let them melt away?
Environmentalist and former Prime Minister of Bhutan Tshering Tobgay shares the latest from the "water towers of Asia," making an urgent call to create an intergovernmental agency to protect the glaciers -- and save the nearly two billion people downstream from catastrophic flooding that would destroy land and livelihoods.



TRANSCRIPT
Tshering Tobgay TEDSummit 2019

On the 17th of October, 2009, President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives did something unusual. He held his cabinet meeting underwater. He literally took his ministers scuba diving, as it were, to warn the world that his country could drown unless we control global warming.

Now I don't know whether he got his message across to the world or not, but he certainly caught mine. I saw a political stunt. You see, I'm a politician, and I notice these things. And let's be honest, the Maldives are distant from where I come from -- my country is Bhutan -- so I didn't lose any sleep over their impending fate.

Barely two months later, I saw another political stunt. This time, the prime minister of Nepal, he held his cabinet meeting on Mount Everest. He took all his ministers all the way up to the base camp of Everest to warn the world that the Himalayan glaciers were melting. Now did that worry me? You bet it did. I live in the Himalayas. But did I lose any sleep over his message? No. I wasn't ready to let a political stunt interfere with my beauty sleep.

Now fast-forward 10 years. In February this year, I saw this report. This here report basically concludes that one-third of the ice on the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains could melt by the end of the century. But that's only if, if we are able to contain global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade over preindustrial levels. Otherwise, if we can't, the glaciers would melt much faster.

1.5 degrees Celsius. "No way," I thought. Even the Paris Agreement's ambitious targets aimed to limit global warming to two degrees centigrade. 1.5 degrees centigrade is what they call the best-case scenario. "Now this can't be true," I thought. The Hindu Kush Himalaya region is the world's third-largest repository of ice, after the North and South Poles. That's why we are also called the "Third Pole." There's a lot of ice in the region. And yes, the glaciers, they are melting. We know that. I have been to those in my country. I've seen them, and yes, they are melting. They are vulnerable. "But they can't be that vulnerable," I remember thinking.

But what if they are? What if our glaciers melt much more quickly than I anticipate? What if our glaciers are much more vulnerable than previously thought? And what if, as a result, the glacial lakes -- now these are lakes that form when glaciers melt -- what if those lakes burst under the weight of additional water? And what if those floods cascade into other glacial lakes, creating even bigger outbursts? That would create unprecedented flash floods in my country. That would wreck my country. That would wreak havoc in my country. That would have the potential to literally destroy our land, our livelihood, our way of life.

So that report caught my attention in ways that political stunts couldn't. It was put together by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, or ICIMOD, which is based in Nepal. Scientists and experts have studied our glaciers for decades, and their report kept me awake at night, agonizing about the bad news and what it meant for my country and my people. So after several sleepless nights, I went to Nepal to visit ICIMOD.

I found a team of highly competent and dedicated scientists there, and here's what they told me.

Number one: the Hindu Kush Himalaya glaciers have been melting for some time now. Take that glacier, for instance. It's on Mount Everest. As you can see, this once massive glacier has already lost much of its ice.

Number two: the glaciers are now melting much more quickly -- so quickly, in fact, that at just 1.5 degrees centigrade of global warming, one-third of the glaciers would melt. At two degrees centigrade of global warming, half the glaciers would disappear. And if current trends were to continue, a full two-thirds of our glaciers would vanish.

Number three: global warming means that our mountains receive more rain and less snow ... and, unlike snowfall, rain melts ice, which just hurts the health of our glaciers.

Number four: pollution in the region has increased the amount of black carbon that's deposited on our glaciers. Black carbon is like soot. Black carbon absorbs heat and just accelerates the melting of glaciers.

To summarize, our glaciers are melting rapidly, and global warming is making them melt much more quickly.

But what does this mean? It means that the 240 million people who live in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region -- in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar and my own beloved country, Bhutan -- these people will be directly affected. When glaciers melt, when there's more rain and less snow, there will be huge changes in the way water behaves. There will be more extremes: more intense rain, more flash floods, more landslides, more glacial lake outburst floods. All this will cause unimaginable destruction in a region that already has some of the poorest people on earth.

But it's not just the people in the immediate region who'll be affected. People living downstream will also be hit hard. That's because 10 of their major rivers originate in the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains. These rivers provide critical water for agriculture and drinking water to more than 1.6 billion people living downstream. That's one in five humans. That's why the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains are also called the "water towers of Asia."

But when glaciers melt, when monsoons turn severe, those rivers will obviously flood, so there will be deluges when water is not required and droughts will be very common, when water is desperately required. In short, Asia's water tower will be broken, and that will be disastrous for one-fifth of humanity.

Should the rest of the world care? Should you, for instance, care? Remember, I didn't care when I heard that the Maldives could disappear underwater. And that is the crux of the problem, isn't it? We don't care. We don't care until we are personally affected. I mean, we know. We know climate change is real. We know that we face drastic and dramatic change. We know that it is coming fast. Yet most of us act as if everything were normal. So we must care, all of us, and if you can't care for those who are affected by the melting of glaciers, you should at least care for yourself. That's because the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains -- the entire region is like the pulse of the planet. If the region falls sick, the entire planet will eventually suffer. And right now, with our glaciers melting rapidly, the region is not just sick -- it is crying out for help.

And how will it affect the rest of the world? One obvious scenario is the potential destabilization caused by tens of millions of climate refugees, who'll be forced to move because they have no or little water, or because their livelihoods have been destroyed by the melting of glaciers. Another scenario we can't take lightly is the potential of conflict over water and the political destabilization in a region that has three nuclear powers: China, India, Pakistan.

I believe that the situation in our region is grave enough to warrant the creation of a new intergovernmental agency. So as a native from that part of the world, I want to propose here, today, the establishment of the Third Pole Council, a high-level, intergovernmental organization tasked with the singular responsibility of protecting the world's third-largest repository of ice. A Third Pole Council would consist of all eight countries located in the region as member countries, as equal member countries, and could also include representative organizations and other countries who have vested interests in the region as non-voting members. But the big idea is to get all stakeholders together to work together. To work together to monitor the health of the glaciers; to work together to shape and implement policies to protect our glaciers, and, by extension, to protect the billions of people who depend on our glaciers.

We have to work together, because thinking globally, acting locally ... does not work. We've tried that in Bhutan. We've made immense sacrifices to act locally ... and while individual localized efforts will continue to be important, they cannot stand up to the onslaught of climate change. To stand up to climate change, we must work together. We must think globally and act regionally. Our entire region must come together, to work together, to fight climate change together, to make our voices heard together.

And that includes India and China. They must step up their game. They must take the ownership of the fight to protect our glaciers. And for that, these two countries, these two powerful giants, must reduce their own greenhouse gases, control their pollution, and lead the fight. Lead the global fight against climate change. And all that with a renewed sense of urgency. Only then -- and that, too, only maybe -- will our region and other regions that depend on our glaciers have any chance to avoid major catastrophes.

Time is running out. We must act together, now. Otherwise, the next time Nepal's cabinet meets on Mount Everest, that spectacular backdrop ... may look quite different. And if that happens, if our glaciers melt, rising sea levels could well drown the Maldives. And while they can hold their cabinet meetings underwater to send an SOS to the world, their country can keep existing only if their islands keep existing.

The Maldives are still distant, away. Their islands are distant from where I live. But now, I pay close attention to what happens out there.

Thank you very much.

Links

• This country isn't just carbon neutral — it's carbon negative (video)
• The disarming case to act right now on climate change (video)
• How to grow a glacier: Time-lapse proof of extreme ice loss (video)
• The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment: Mountains, Climate Change, Sustainability and People (book)
• Rising Temperatures Could Melt Most Himalayan Glaciers by 2100 
• Melting Himalayan Glaciers: A Big Drop In A Bucket That’s Already Full 
• First-Ever Everest Drill: World’s Highest Glacier More Sensitive To Climate Change Than Expected 
• Deadly Tensions Rise As India’s Water Supply Runs Dangerously Low 

World Leaders Must Prove They've Listened To Climate Activists: Thunberg

Reuters - Stephanie Nebehay

Swedish teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg attends a news conference during the SMILE meeting (Summer Meeting in Lausanne Europe), with other young climate strike activists from 37 European countries of the FridaysforFuture movement in Lausanne, Switzerland, August 5, 2019. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse

LAUSANNE, Switzerland (Reuters) - World leaders must prove that they have listened to young climate activists after a year of protests has not led to any progress in the reduction of greenhouse emissions, leading activist Greta Thunberg said on Monday.
World leaders have an opportunity at the climate summit in September in New York to address the “ecological emergency”, said the Swedish teenager, who will attend the U.N. talks, crossing the Atlantic by boat.
Some 450 activists from 38 European countries brought their #FridaysforFuture movement to the Swiss city of Lausanne, calling for swift action to reduce emissions including carbon dioxide linked to global warming, especially in Europe.
“During this last year, lots of things have happened. Then of course the global emissions haven’t gone down. So we’re still back on square one,” Thunberg told a news conference.
“So of course we will need to do so much more, we are still only scratching the surface,” the 16-year-old said.
Global warming caused by heat-trapping greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels has already led to droughts and heatwaves, melting glaciers, rising sea levels and floods, scientists say.
Carbon emissions hit a record high last year, despite a warning from the U.N.-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in October that output of the gases will have to be slashed over the next 12 years to stabilize the climate.
The movement must continue to raise the alarm, including in Asia where students have held fewer strikes, Thunberg said.
Referring to the summit, she said: “I think this is a great opportunity for world leaders to show that they have actually listened to us and to the science...Now they will have to prove that”.
Jacques Dubochet, a Swiss who won the 2017 Nobel prize in chemistry, said “fundamental change” was needed, adding: “We know exactly where we have to go - out of carbon as soon as possible.”

Media Conference: Greta Thunberg and Nobel Prize winner Jacques Dubochet

Ernst von Weizsacker, a scientist and former German politician, told reporters: “If we only concentrate our action on Europe we are losing the war.
This was because more than 90 percent of newly-built and planned coal-powered plants are in developing countries, he said. “And unless we persuade them that it could be lucrative and good for them to stop building coal power plants and make money out of renewable energies and energy efficiency, which is a great potential, we are losing.”
Activists urged the European Union to adopt more ambitious climate goals, in line with the Paris agreement, by reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2030 compared to 1990, and aiming to reach net-zero by 2035.
The bloc should not sign any free trade agreement with countries that do not uphold the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, the European Citizens’ Initiative said.

Links

• 'Time To Rebel': Greta Thunberg Adds Voice To New Song By The 1975
• Teen Climate Activist Greta Thunberg Wins France's First Freedom Prize
• Greta Thunberg: ‘They See Us As A Threat Because We’re Having An Impact’
• US Philanthropists Vow To Raise Millions For Climate Activists
• Greta Thunberg Thanks OPEC Chief For Complaining About ‘Threat’ Of Climate Activists
• When Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Met Greta Thunberg: 'Hope Is Contagious'

'Both Sides' Of The Climate Change Debate? How Bad We Think It Is, And How Bad It Really Is

The Guardian - Greg Jericho

It’s time to stop being mealy-mouthed about this. No more silent passes to climate science deniers

‘All efforts at the moment are assuming if we reduce emissions by 45% by 2030 we can limit warming to 1.5C. That might now be rather too optimistic.’ Photograph: Keith Virgo/AP

Over the past couple of weeks things have been happening on the climate change front but, unfortunately, little is changing in parliament, where the government’s direct action policy has continued to be an utter failure and a Queensland LNP MP suggested in his first speech in the House of Representatives that schools should teach both sides of the climate change debate in school – to prevent them being “brainwashed with extreme left or right ideologies”.
Last week came news that BHP was going to spend US$400m over five years on a “climate investment program to develop technologies to reduce emissions from its own operations as well as those generated from the use of its resources”.
Its CEO, Andrew Mackenzie, stated in a speech in London, “Society’s combustion of fossil fuels and industrial processes like steelmaking and agriculture have released greenhouse gases at rates much faster than at any other time in the geological past.”
To ram the message home he concluded: “The evidence is abundant: global warming is indisputable. The planet will survive. Many species may not.”
Just ponder that: many species will not survive.
Thus it was not particularly surprising really to hear this week that the NSW HSC was going to include climate change in geography classes. The surprising element was that it doesn’t already.

The government is utterly failing to achieve even its own pathetically low emissions reduction targets

Neither was it surprising to see conservatives across the media come out against it, arguing that if they are to teach climate change then they need to teach “both sides”. The IPA’s “director of the foundations of western civilisation program” Bella d’Abrera (yeah, I know) suggested on Sky News that “they’re going to hear hopefully that climate change is not necessary manmade”.
Or in other words, students should hear that conspiracy theories are real.
This is the type of guff that you expect to hear from the libertarian romper room that Sky News is now. It’s a station that gives a voice to the likes of Andrew Bolt, who this week devoted a column to calling 16-year-old climate-change activist Greta Thunberg “deeply disturbed” and mocking her autism diagnosis.
She responded by flicking him away with ease – which to be honest was not wholly difficult given I’ve had cases of tinea that have contributed more to our national intelligence than has Bolt’s entire media career. But she did it with class.
In parliament you would hope for better than the dredge we get on Sky News. But no.
On Wednesday, newly elected Queensland MP Terry Young gave his first speech, in which he stated “we want our children and grandchildren to hear the theories of evolution and creation, different religions, climate change advocates and climate change sceptics. I can say what we don’t want for us and our kids is to be brainwashed with extreme left or right ideologies.”
“Theories of creation”? Religion is a theory now?

Liberal member for Longman, Terry Young: “We want our children and grandchildren to hear … climate change advocates and climate change sceptics.” Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP

He continued arguing, “When I hear a school principal stand up at school assembly and say ‘if this government doesn’t do anything about climate change, the world will end in 2030’ I get angry, because we should not indoctrinate our kids with fear mongering.”
Now, firstly, I’d like to know where that happened because I can find no record of it. It sort of happened in the TV show Big Little Lies, so maybe that was it.
But here’s the thing, he should get angry if he hears that – not because it is brainwashing but because his government is not doing anything about climate change.
The world is not going to end in 2030, but if we have not taken massive steps by then, our ability to prevent massive global degradation and harm due to climate change will be beyond us.
This is not extremist, it is science – science that was announced in October by the UN IPCC. Its co-chair said at the time: “This is the largest clarion bell from the science community and I hope it mobilises people and dents the mood of complacency.”
But no, it didn’t.
Young went on to suggest personal responsibility was more important and the fact his family own a hybrid car and have solar panels was a sign of how conservatives go about things the right way.
It is much the same line we have heard by so many conservatives – a variant of if we all plant a tree and recycle then that’s all we can do.
It won’t be anywhere near enough, and it might seem like “common sense” to Young but it is not. Just how lacking the LNP’s climate change policy is in anything approaching substance was revealed this week when its latest auction under the “emissions reduction fund” bought cuts equivalent to only 0.01% of Australia’s annual greenhouse gas pollution.
The government is utterly failing to achieve even its own pathetically low emissions reduction targets.
And time is running out fast.
This week in the Monthly, ANU climate scientist Dr Joëlle Gergis wrote that, while in 2013 scientists had estimated that a doubling of CO2 levels from pre-industrial levels (which we’re on track to do by 2060) would lead to a temperature increase of between 1.5C to 4.5C, now as scientists continue to get more data, their models suggest the temperature increase is more likely to be between 2.8C and 5.8C.
That’s scary because all efforts at the moment are assuming if we reduce emissions by 45% by 2030 we can limit warming to 1.5C. That might now be rather too optimistic.
Add into the mix came further news this week that glaciers appear to be melting 10 to 100 times faster than expected.
It’s time to stop being mealy-mouthed about this and to give silent passes to those peddling climate-change denialism either explicitly or implicitly by demanding we listen to both sides.
But OK, here’s both sides of the debate – for well over 40 years scientists have been researching and testing evidence that climate change is occurring due to CO2 emissions. They have found conclusive evidence that there is a link and that on the current path by 2100 global temperatures will likely reach 3C above pre-industrial levels.
The other side is that they have kept researching and testing the data, and sorry, they were wrong – it’s even worse than they thought.

Links

• BHP boss announces $US400m plan to combat 'indisputable' climate crisis
• We have 12 years to limit climate change catastrophe, warns UN
• Greta Thunberg hits back at Andrew Bolt for 'deeply disturbing' column
• Coalition's emissions reduction fund labelled 'a joke' after first post-election auction
• Alarming Sonar Results Show Glaciers May Be Melting Faster Than We Expected