14/03/2020

Coronavirus And Climate Change

New York TimesBrad Plumer

Credit...Spencer Platt/Getty Images






On Monday, oil prices saw their biggest one-day drop since 1991, driven down by coronavirus fears and a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia. If we’re entering an era of really cheap oil, it’s worth asking what that could mean for climate change.

The traditional view is that a plunge in oil prices hurts efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions, as people use more oil and disregard alternatives like electric cars. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, has warned that cheap oil may slow the transition to cleaner energy worldwide.

But there are also reasons to think the old rules may not apply this time, and that the climate impact of cheap oil doesn’t have to be so stark.

Cheap oil, for instance, has often depressed sales of electric cars. But nowadays, a large share of electric vehicle sales is being driven by regulations in places like China, Europe and California. Those aren’t going away. What’s more, battery prices have been quickly falling over time, which means that electric cars are steadily becoming more competitive with conventional cars, even if you ignore fuel costs.

“For most consumers, high upfront prices are the biggest thing holding electric vehicles back,” Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said in an email. “Battery prices matter more than oil prices. If those keep falling, electric vehicle adoption will keep going up.”

He added: “Automakers are unlikely to change their long-term plans as a result of fluctuations in the oil market. Electrification is here to stay.”

Generally, a drop in oil prices also leads to an increase in travel, as people take advantage of low prices at the pump or cheaper airfares. But that’s less likely to happen this time, since worries about the coronavirus outbreak are keeping many people at home.

One big question, said Amy Myers Jaffe, an oil expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, is whether the coronavirus outbreak could permanently alter people’s work and transportation habits as companies get more comfortable with remote work and videoconferencing, reducing oil demand over time. “It will be interesting to see if we see big structural changes once this crisis subsides,” she said.

Another dynamic to watch: The oil crash, which is putting a financial strain on drilling companies, could cause some companies to reconsider their plans to invest in low-carbon technology. Alternatively, some companies may decide that renewable sources like wind and solar are actually a safer investment in a world of unstable oil prices.

But the biggest wild card is how policymakers react to the economic slowdown that’s being driven by coronavirus fears. If countries like China try to revitalize their economy by subsidizing polluting industries like steel and cement, emissions could soar in the coming months. During a period of economic crisis, climate concerns often fade, many analysts have noted.

But there’s another scenario: Governments could seize this moment to enact new climate policies. Low oil prices are often a good opportunity to remove subsidies for fossil fuels, which have been increasing in recent years, or raise taxes on carbon dioxide emissions, since consumers are less likely to feel the impact.

“Policymakers may try to bail out the conventional energy system and continue on as usual,” said Michael Webber, chief science and technology officer at Engie, a French energy company. “Or they could try to scale back subsidies for fossil fuels, help retrain workers into cleaner sectors, and take the moment to try to address the climate problem.”

In other words, it’s really up to us.

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13/03/2020

Women Fighting Climate Change Are Targets For Misogynists

Chatelaine - Chris Turner

Rude jokes, hate mail and violent threats—for climate experts, it’s all part of the job. That’s especially true for the women.

Illustration: Alex Nabaum c/o THEISPOT

Just months after the Alberta NDP’s surprise 2015 election win, Shannon Phillips, the province’s new environment minister, travelled to Paris for what would turn out to be a historic round of global climate change negotiations.

Alberta had long been a climate laggard, but Phillips was an ambitious and relatively young force in the province’s politics—39 years old at the time—and she was part of a wave of fresh faces in leadership. Phillips landed in Paris alongside Alberta’s new premier, Rachel Notley, and Canada’s new prime minister, Justin Trudeau, who were both committed to taking big steps after a decade of foot-dragging under Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.

It was an exciting time to be a cabinet minister working on climate change—the meeting produced what’s known as the Paris Agreement, the first major international pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions since the Kyoto Protocol nearly 20 years earlier. And right away, Phillips noticed a remarkable detail about the negotiations: the number of women present. At every meeting, the tables were crowded with female ministers, female negotiators, female scientists and activists.

“A massive amount of the heavy lifting around the world on this matter is being done by women,” says Phillips, who still represents her Lethbridge-West riding in the Alberta legislature. “You see more women on panels. You see more women in the negotiating spaces. You see more women in leadership positions on climate.”

But, as Phillips learned, that prominence came saddled with an added burden. As her government rolled out its climate change plan, she became a target for misogynistic abuse. There was no communications channel immune to the attacks. Social media platforms provided the greatest volume of vitriol, but occasional hateful messages also arrived via email, written letters and phone calls.

For Phillips, Facebook was the worst. Staff at her Lethbridge constituency office took on the work of scrolling through her feed, deleting enraged, expletive-laden posts and deciding if any represented sufficiently serious threats to alert local police. Lethbridge is a small city and its political circles smaller still, and Phillips’ staff could sometimes trace threatening posts to someone only one or two degrees of separation away from the politician’s family, friends and inner circle.

Lethbridge West politician Shannon Phillips

As a cabinet minister, Phillips couldn’t spend her days engaging in online shouting matches. “You have some constraints that are real,” she says. “It’s hard to fight back. So you just retreat.” The cacophony of abusive language simply became part of the background noise of her job.

That’s a ubiquitous experience for women leading the global climate change effort. From climate scientists who explain scientific facts to the public, to politicians unveiling climate legislation, to teenagers taking to the streets to demand a better future, women have formed the front line in this pitched political battle.

They are among the fiercest advocates for action, and a relentless barrage of abuse is unleashed upon them in response. There is no more important political arena in the world today than addressing climate change, and few as ugly and openly misogynistic. There is real heroism simply in persevering.

The intensity of the hate endured by women working on climate issues is partially due to the overall tenor of the conversation—deeply divisive, freighted with highly technical terminology and thrown off course for decades by ferocious and well-funded efforts to obscure the basic scientific facts of the crisis.

Men working on climate change action, whether as politicians, scientists or activists, also become objects of hate. Michael Mann, an outspoken climate scientist at Penn State University, once received an envelope full of mysterious white powder in the mail (it turned out to be corn starch), among other abuses. He is far from alone.

For women, though, the scale and intensity are orders of magnitude greater. Women exercising authority of any sort endure a certain amount of gender-based vilification, and climate change advocacy inevitably amplifies it. Several recent studies have noted that climate change represents a particularly sharp challenge to traditional ideas about masculinity.

A 2014 Swedish study, for example, found that climate change was seen as a threat to what researcher Martin Hultman has called the male “industrial breadwinner” identity, causing many men “to perceive climate activism as inherently feminine.”

Another study found that men were more likely than women to view acts of environmental stewardship in general as threats to masculinity. A British market research firm has dubbed this the “eco gender gap,” noting that products branded as “green” were much more likely to be purchased by women than by men. Climate change blends all these factors together, creating a uniquely powerful catalyst for gendered abuse.

Climate activist Greta Thunberg speaks to an audience in Germany in February 2020. Photo: Christian Charisius/DPA via ZUMA Press

Every female climate scientist who achieves any prominence has seen her social media mentions fill with schoolyard insults, disparaging descriptions of her appearance and threats of sexual violence.

Every politician in the spotlight on the climate front becomes a target for partisan attacks. Young women who take on leadership roles are met with condescension regarding their abilities and contempt regarding their motives. And once such abuse reaches a particular volume and pitch, it spills over from the online world to real life.

Last October, Swedish student activist Greta Thunberg landed in Alberta to participate in one of the climate strikes her leadership has inspired around the world. While she was there, a camera-wielding contributor to the right-wing outlet Rebel Media tracked her to her Edmonton hotel. In a video that’s still up on YouTube, he follows her down a hallway and clearly identifies her location—a shocking intrusion on the safety of a 16-year-old girl. In climate politics, nothing appears to be out of bounds.

In Canada, Rebel Media has loomed large in the deterioration of the discourse around climate change. If there was an initial flashpoint for climate misogyny in this country, it was early 2016, when the outlet began using the term “Climate Barbie” to refer to then federal environment minister Catherine McKenna.

The phrase, alongside the usual load of misogynistic abuse hurled at female cabinet ministers, had burbled in the background during the first months of McKenna’s tenure. On the advice of her staff, McKenna had largely ignored the taunts and the condescending name. But once Rebel Media began popularizing it, usage rapidly amped up. And one particular day in September 2017, McKenna decided she’d had enough.

“I was at the UN,” McKenna says, “and it was late. We had had a day of meetings with international leaders on climate change and I came back [to my hotel] and I saw my Twitter feed had exploded.” The reason? The Conservative MP Gerry Ritz had replied to a news story about the Paris emissions cuts with a tweet reading, “Has anyone told our climate Barbie!”

Photo: Courtesy Catherine McKenna

In the lingo of social media, McKenna decided to clap back. “Do you use that sexist language about your daughter, mother, sister?” she wrote. “We need more women in politics. Your sexist comments won’t stop us.” In the face of a barrage of criticism, Ritz deleted the tweet and apologized for using a term that “is not reflective of the role the Minister plays.”

From then on, McKenna took on her critics from time to time. In a press scrum a few weeks after Ritz’s tweet, she confronted a Rebel Media contributor directly. In response to a question about Canada’s electricity mix, she replied, “So you’re the Rebel Media that happens to call me ‘Climate Barbie.’ I certainly hope that you will no longer use that hashtag.”

“I realized that calling these things out every once in awhile is actually good,” she says now. “Because I felt that I had to bite my tongue a lot, and I didn’t think it was okay. And it’s not that it’s all about me . . . It’s about girls and women who want to get into politics who would see these horrible things.” McKenna says pushing back makes her feel “empowered,” but the consequences of the abuse could not be so readily contained.

After several encounters with angry strangers—including having profanities hurled at her from a passing car as she walked with her children—she was required to take on a security detail for her public appearances as environment minister.

Even for women with platforms much less prominent, talking about climate change in public is a powerful magnet for misogynistic abuse. Leah Stokes, a Canadian-born professor at the University of California at Santa Barbara, began making media appearances in early 2019 to discuss how to transform the energy sector. She noticed a distinct shift as her social media following grew. “When you get to 10,000,” she says, “things start to get crazy for women on Twitter.”

Her response has been to put hours of conscious effort into building community and encouraging civility on social media. Stokes thanks colleagues for mentioning her work, goes out of her way to post praise of theirs and makes regular recommendations of other scientists to follow.

“I see so many women advocates doing that,” says Stokes, adding it’s partly an effort to share the spotlight, and ensure a diversity of voices. “I think the darker side of it is that it’s a way of protecting ourselves. It’s the kind of extra emotional labour we have to do . . . that I just don’t think men have to do at all.”

University of California at Santa Barbara professor Leah Stokes. Photo: Courtesy Leah Stokes

Even with that extra labour, Stokes sometimes finds the climate battlefield more than she wants to take on.

In the fall of 2019, a New York Times reporter contacted Stokes for an analysis of the climate and energy policies being floated by Democratic leadership candidates. She decided not to go on the record with her thoughts.

“If I took a position different from some of the activists…I would get attacked,” Stokes says. The Times reporter spoke to several other women for the story, but none agreed to be quoted. When the piece ran, it was criticized for failing to include the voices of female experts.

Stokes, like many women working in climate advocacy today, points to another Canadian climate scientist, Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University, as a role model. Hayhoe has become a widely cited voice on how to talk to a reluctant public about climate change—in part because she is an unabashed Christian and political moderate in a field whose most prominent spokespeople tend to be neither of those things. Hayhoe also has an extraordinary gift for delivering calm, clear messages in the midst of the climate crossfire.

“What’s at the bottom of all of this is fear,” Hayhoe says. “Fear that the world is changing really fast. And it’s changing in ways that make a lot of people uncomfortable, because they feel like they’re being left behind.” All those fears have triggered a multivalent storm of toxic, reactionary politics—nationalism, sexism, racism and hostility toward expertise of all sorts.

As Hayhoe notes, a female scientist talking about a need for dramatic socio-economic changes in order to address an issue associated with progressive causes becomes a lightning rod for virtually the entire turbulent mess of grievances.

Hayhoe has come in for constant abuse and threats. She has removed personal information from her online bios because she was receiving strange packages and letters both at work and at home. The less frightening sexism takes a toll, too. In June 2019, when Hayhoe was called to give testimony before the United States Congress, congressmen who had addressed her male colleagues as “doctor” condescendingly referred to her as “young lady.”

“When I’m the second oldest person on the panel, and I am an expert with 25 years of experience testifying in my field, to address me in that manner is frankly unprofessional and inappropriate,” says Hayhoe, who has a PhD, more than 100 peer-reviewed climate science publications and is the director of Texas Tech’s Climate Center, among other things. “Yet, it’s common.”

She’s stopped trying to defend her expertise. “I had to consciously give up the right to be respected and correctly represented,” Hayhoe says. “I don’t like it, but that’s not what I’m here for. I’m here to reach the people who can engage in respectful dialogue.”

Katharine Hayhoe. Photo: Ashley Rodgers, Texas Tech University

The task is admirable, and it is bearing fruit—climate change has moved firmly into the centre of the political arena across North America and support for action is building.

At the same time, the greater visibility of both the issue and the women who carry on the fight almost certainly means that misogynistic blowback will get worse before it gets better. And it continues to transpire in a rapidly evolving social media environment in which there are still no established norms, let alone government protocols or law-enforcement strategies.

McKenna says her office and her government have brought up the abuse directly with social media companies. The response has been rote expressions of regret and suggestions to report every transgression—which, she notes ruefully, would’ve occupied her entire staff all day, every day, at the peak of her visibility as environment minister.

Otherwise, there is no promise of action on the horizon, and police are often no more help. Phillips says nothing was done to investigate the threatening messages her office reported, which she calls “a form of intimidating people who are duly elected.” She wonders—without much hope—if CSIS or the RCMP will ever see it that way.

In the meantime, there is the everyday heroism of the women engaged in the climate change battle—who are all quick to insist the duty to act and the opportunity to carve out an even larger space for female leadership balances out the abuse. “Change is worth it,” says Phillips. “And from my perspective of being a partisan politician, being the boss is worth it.”

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Want To Go For Inclusive Climate Action? Then Start With Integrating Gender Equality Into Climate Finance

Inter Press Service News AgencyVerania Chao | Koh Miyaoi

Credit: We Can International
  • Verania Chao is Programme Specialist, Climate Change and Gender Equality/Inclusion, United Nations Development Programme
  • Koh Miyaoi is United Nations Development Programme Asia-Pacific Gender Team Leader/Regional Gender Advisor
UNITED NATIONS - Gender equality and women’s rights have progressed immensely since the adoption of the most visionary agenda on women’s empowerment, the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, 25 years ago.
However, gender equality experts across the world are signaling that we need to identify additional paths for a sustainable world, including in our response to climate change.
This year, we have the opportunity to make a real difference in our climate response and to recognize its critical links to gender equality.
In addition to the 25th anniversary of the Beijing Declaration this year, 2020 is also the year when countries are requested to deliver stronger climate action plans to adapt and cut their emissions further and faster under the global Paris Climate Accord.
As United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) plays a central role in strengthening countries’ capacity to plan and implement their climate targets, the organization has worked with countries on gender-responsive climate action and climate finance.UNDP’s Strengthening Governance of Climate Change Finance Programme (GCCF), supported by the Government of Sweden, has worked with countries to include gender in climate change policies and budgets in Asia and the Pacific since 2012.

Meanwhile, the Governments of Germany, Spain and the European Union have joined forces to support a pilot on integrating gender equality and women’s empowerment in 17 countries through UNDP’s NDC Support Programme.
With a focus on national climate plans as an entry point, the pilot is elevating the integration of gender aspects from the project or programme-level to a more systemic, sectoral level.
As countries are approaching the deadline to deliver more ambitious, gender-responsive climate plans later this year, UNDP has also stepped up its efforts by offering additional support to 100 countries through the Climate Promise, a global initiative aimed to enhance NDCs and raise ambition.
This also offers an opportunity to improve and embed the integration of gender into the next generation of national climate plans.
To make this a reality, however, we must better integrate gender into the various areas of climate financing – public, private and multilateral.
Climate action is attracting a large volume of funding through increasingly diverse funding streams, but often ignores its impacts on gender equality and misses to benefit from women’s leadership and expertise on climate-related issues.
If countries’ climate actions are to involve the whole population, climate finance needs to become gender-responsive. So, what does it mean to integrate gender into climate finance?
Many countries trying to implement gender-responsive climate action have found that even if capacities are in place, data has been collected and analyzed, and policies have been formulated, implementation bottlenecks remain.
One such bottleneck is the lack of an effective system to ensure planned actions are budgeted for and implemented on the ground.
Therefore, a robust and compelling framework for the integration of gender into climate finance streams is needed. In particular, there is a need to better understand how these different funding streams complement and reinforce each other, and how the experiences of gender integration in one funding stream can be leveraged for scaling up gender equality outcomes in the others so that broader development priorities can be more effectively addressed.

Budgeting can be a powerful tool to advance the implementation of gender-responsive climate actions. While ministries of finance can directly advance this goal through by preparing the budget and proposing financial policy, they alone cannot ensure the embedding of gender-responsive climate actions in the policy and budget cycle.
Key ministries, such as Gender Equality, Women’s Empowerment, Energy, Transport, Planning, and Environment, have a vital collective role to play through integration processes in their respective sectors.
By the end of 2020, UNDP will not only have supported 100 countries on preparing more ambitious climate plans, but also with the embedding of gender-responsive climate measures.
To make a transformative change in a world that is being increasingly marked by deepening inequalities, climate change and natural disasters, it is also time to recognize the vital link between gender equality and financing for climate change to accelerate progress on our climate response.
In 2020, we have a real opportunity to make this happen.

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Wind And Solar Plants Will Soon Be Cheaper Than Coal In All Big Markets Around World, Analysis Finds

The Guardian

Report raises fresh doubt about viability of Australia’s thermal coal export industry

Building new wind and solar plants will soon be cheaper in every major market across the globe than running existing coal-fired power stations, according to a new report that raises fresh doubt about the medium-term viability of Australia’s $26bn thermal coal export industry.

While some countries are moving faster than others, the analysis by the Carbon Tracker Initiative, a climate finance thinktank, found renewable power was a cheaper option than building new coal plants in all large markets including Australia, and was expected to cost less than electricity from existing coal plants by 2030 at the latest.

Solar photovoltaics and wind energy were already cheaper than electricity from about 60% of coal stations, including about 70% of China’s coal fleet and half of Australia’s plants, it said.

In Japan, where Australia sells nearly half its exported thermal coal, wind power was found to cost less than new coal plants and was expected to be cheaper than existing coal by 2028. Solar power in Japan was forecast to be a better option than new coal by 2023 and existing coal by 2026.
The story was similar in China and South Korea, which each take about 15% of Australia’s exported thermal coal. In China, wind was already cheaper than any coal power, and solar electricity was forecast to on average cost less than existing coal later this year. Renewable energy in South Korea was expected to be cheaper than existing coal within two years.

The report acknowledged this trend did not necessarily mean coal power would be pushed from the market within a decade. It said some governments were effectively incentivising or underwriting new coal power through regulatory programs that either directly subsidised coal operators or passed the higher cost on to consumers.

But the group found that coal power would struggle if markets were priced fairly. It called on governments to block new coal projects and phase our existing coal plants, in part by changing regulations to allow renewable energy to compete on a level playing field.

Carbon Tracker’s Matt Gray, a co-author of the report, said proposed coal investments risked becoming stranded assets that locked in increasingly expensive power for decades. The analysis found that developers risked wasting more than $600bn if all mooted coal-fired plants were built.

“The market is driving the low-carbon energy transition but governments aren’t listening,” Gray said. “It makes economic sense for governments to cancel new coal projects immediately and progressively phase out existing plants.”

Christiana Figueres, a former head UN climate chief who oversaw negotiations on the Paris agreement and is in Australian on a book tour, said demand for coal had been diminishing, having been overtaken by cheaper gas-fired power in the US and outpriced by solar in India. She said the price of solar and onshore and offshore wind were falling consistently.

“No one should not assume that the demand for thermal coal from Australia is actually elastic. It’s not,” Figueres said.

Australia is the world’s second largest thermal coal exporter after Indonesia, and is the biggest trader in metallurgical coal, which is used in steel making.

The export value of both forms of coal dropped notably last year. The spot price of thermal coal slumped more than a third from US$100.73 to US$66.20, its biggest fall in more than a decade.

Before the coronavirus outbreak, the government’s latest resources and quarterly energy report estimated the declining price would cut earnings from thermal coal exports from a record A$26bn in 2018-19 to A$20.6bn this financial year.

In terms of coal use, the International Energy Agency found it declined last year, but forecast a slight increase over the next five years due to rising demand from India.

A more detailed analysis by several thinktanks found that coal-fired electricity fell about 3% in 2019, the biggest drop on record after more than four decades of near-uninterrupted growth in which coal power has been a primary driver of the climate crisis. China’s use of coal plants continued to climb while generation in the US and Europe fell by 16% and nearly a quarter.

Within Australia, black and brown coal provide about two-thirds of the electricity used in the five eastern states, but this is expected to fall as old plants continue to close. According to federal government projections, renewable energy is expected to meet nearly 50% of national demand by 2030.

In 2018 the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change examined how rapidly global coal power needed to be phased out to give the world a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C , a goal referenced in the Paris agreement.

It found this would require a cut of 59% to 78% below 2010 levels by 2030, before declining to zero.

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12/03/2020

Report Finds 76 Solutions Available Right Now To Slow Down Climate Change

ScienceAlert Tessa Koumoundouros

Biogas is one of the 76 suggested solutions. (ollo/Getty Images)
We have all the solutions we need to avoid catastrophic warming, right now, claims a new report by Project Drawdown. And, not only are they easy to implement, they're far cheaper than doing nothing.
The Drawdown Review is a comprehensive analysis of the currently available solutions to the climate crisis, based on the work of scientists and researchers around the world, across many sectors, from finance to climate science.
The aim of the nonprofit Project Drawdown is to guide us all towards a future where the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere stop climbing and start to decline - the moment they refer to as 'drawdown'. That means we must start extracting fossil fuel emissions, such as CO2 and methane, from the atmosphere as well as stop spewing them into it.
"Drawdown is a critical turning point for life on Earth, and we must strive to reach it quickly, safely, and equitably," says the report.
Having already lost an entire decade to inaction, and recently receiving a glimpse of some very frightening consequences - the devastating loss of wildlife from Australia's unprecedented summer of fires - the urgency of such solutions are surely clear.
"The current path we are on is beyond dangerous," the report warns, "and it's easy to be paralyzed by that perilousness. Yet possibility remains to change it."
Project Drawdown estimates that by implementing the 76 solutions they've outlined, it would result in savings of up to around US$144 trillion of avoided climate damage and pollution-related healthcare costs. While the upfront cost could be up to US$26.2 trillion, this plan would allow us to achieve peak carbon dioxide by as early as the mid-2040s.
When they scientists grouped their solutions by sector, they were ranked like this:
  1. Energy
  2. Food waste, agriculture, land rehabilitation
  3. Industry
  4. Building efficiency
  5. Transport
"We found that when we add together the 80-plus solutions to climate change, and these already exist, we have enough to get drawdown by between the 2040s and the 2060s depending on how decisively we act," co-author and climate scientist Jonathan Foley told the ABC.
The review outlines three key areas: reducing emission sources, protecting and increasing the natural systems that cycle these chemicals, and how to achieve these things while simultaneously improving society.
It of course calls for a rapid shift in how we generate electricity, with 30 percent of the solutions involving increasing efficiency in our energy use and another 30 percent on how to replace fossil fuels.
In what has come to be a heavily debated topic, the report maintains a role for nuclear in a rapid progress towards a carbon-free future.
A recent analysis from Stanford researchers also suggests such a shift is entirely possible with current technology, but unlike Project Drawdown, they believe this can be achieved entirely with renewable energy and do not agree nuclear power is necessary.
Some of Project Drawdown's suggested solutions, like switching to LED lighting and battery storage power, create nearly immediate savings.
The report highlights the importance of not only preserving but increasing our natural carbon sinks, including protecting ecosystems and changing agricultural practices. Unfortunately though, world leaders from Australia to Brazil are allowing destruction of these vital carbon sinks to continue.
The report acknowledges this aspect, pointing out current commitments for mitigating climate change fall far short of what we need and some aspects are "politically unrealistic" at present. But it offers little analysis on how to counter this beyond a brief mention of "building people" power.
It also notes that other powerful solutions, often overlooked, include reducing food waste and providing women with better education and access to healthcare - which empowers them to have smaller families.
"What these results show is the utmost importance of all solutions implemented in parallel," explained Chad Frischmann, Vice President of Project Drawdown.
"The impacts of these technologies and practices occur only as part of an interconnected, integrated system. It is the implementation of this system of solutions that is the real solution to climate change."
Rather than argue in favour of changing our rampant consumerist culture or curtailing economic growth, they point out money is fuel for change. As such, the researchers favour shifts towards a circular economy and moving capital from the sources of problems to the solutions.
Nevertheless, it is a useful guide for individuals, communities and businesses ready to forge ahead with much needed changes, regardless of the challenges.
The review acknowledges that facing the climate crisis is an overwhelming task, but reminds us it is "also an invitation into deeply meaningful work."
"Business leaders can really step up and lead, not just be followers, not just be pushed by governments, but maybe help shape what regulations could be in the future to take advantage of this new emerging economy," Foley told Fast Company. "The smart businesses are not going to be just dragged kicking and screaming to a climate-safe future. They're going to be leading it."
If enough of us take on this challenge, then perhaps we can still make significant positive progress, despite the powerful institutions still trying to get in our way.
You can read the analysis of all 76 solutions in The Drawdown Review.

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Guest Post: World’s Intact Tropical Forests Reached ‘Peak Carbon Uptake’ In 1990s

Carbon Brief - Simon Lewis

Amazon forest canopy at dawn, Brazil. Credit: Dr Peter Vander Sleen.
Simon Lewis
Prof Simon Lewis is a researcher of global change science at the University of Leeds and University College London and is a contributing editor for Carbon Brief.
The world’s land surface currently removes around 30% of all human-generated CO2 emissions, with tropical forests playing a major role in this “carbon sink”.
Of particular importance are intact tropical forests, which, according to a landmark paper published in 2011, absorbed 15% of all human-generated CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2007.
This research found that intact tropical forests that are undisturbed by either logging or fires were, on average, getting larger over time – thought to be driven by rising atmospheric CO2 levels boosting photosynthesis.
However, new research published this week in Nature, by myself and colleagues, paints a much more alarming picture of the role of tropical forests in slowing climate change.
Utilising two large forest datasets in Africa and South America spanning 300,000 trees, we show that the carbon sink in tropical forest is in rapid decline.
In fact, according to our analysis, the ability of intact tropical forests to remove CO2 from the atmosphere reached its peak in the 1990s and has since been in decline.

Tropical turmoil
Forests act as a net carbon sink when the amount of carbon gained through tree growth and the establishment of new trees is larger than the amount lost through tree mortality.
To evaluate how the sink is evolving over time, we made use of tree data stretching back 30 years. Every few years in the study period, research teams measured every tree in 565 patches of intact forest across the Amazon, the Congo Basin and West Africa.

Measuring trees in Lope National Park, Gabon (left) and in the Peruvian Amazon (right). Credit: Prof Simon Lewis (left) and Dr Roel Brienen (right)
The results show that, in the 1990s, the average undisturbed tropical forest removed 0.57 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year from the atmosphere. But this figure declined to an estimated 0.38 tonnes of carbon by the 2010s.
This is a one-third reduction in the carbon sink strength of intact tropical forests in just two decades.
If we extrapolate our results to consider all of the planet’s remaining intact tropical forests, we find that carbon uptake peaked at 1.26bn tonnes of carbon per year in the 1990s. This figure represents around 17% of all human-generated CO2 emissions at that time.
By the 2010s, the global uptake ability of tropical forests declined to 0.68bn tonnes of carbon per year. This is equivalent to just 6% of human-caused CO2 emissions in the 2010s.
It is worth noting that, over the study period, both the per unit area sink strength declined by 33% and the area of intact tropical forest declined by 19%, which also reduced the total rate of carbon uptake.
Tropical forests are still an important carbon sink. However, according to our results, the feared sink-to-source transition of one on Earth’s major carbon sinks has begun. This is decades earlier than any climate-driven vegetation model has predicted.

Dying trees
To understand why the carbon sink is decreasing, we analysed various factors that could be affecting tree growth and death.
Models typically predict that rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere will boost plant growth. This is because plants use CO2 during photosynthesis, the process needed to fix carbon to grow trunks, branches, roots and leaves. The impact of rising CO2 levels on plant growth is known as the “CO2 fertilisation effect”.
Our analysis shows, for the first time using inventory data, that across Africa and the Amazon, more CO2 in the atmosphere is boosting forest growth and this effect is not diminishing over time – just as models predicted.
However, despite the CO2 fertilisation effect, the sink is in decline.
This is because of the climate impacts of rising CO2 levels. Namely, higher temperatures and stronger drought conditions are slowing plant growth – and killing trees.
Overall, our analysis reveals that the balance of the ongoing positive impact of CO2 on photosynthesis and the increasingly negative impacts of temperature and drought is progressively moving in the direction of shutting down the sink over time.
Another factor playing a role is the life history of trees. Dynamic forests where trees die younger see their carbon sink saturating sooner than less dynamic forests, which tend to be dominated by very large trees.

Africa vs Amazonia
As part of our analysis, we looked at how the rate of carbon uptake differs between the world’s two largest areas of intact tropical forest: the Amazon region and in equatorial Africa.
Our results show that the Amazon sink started declining first, starting in the 1990s, followed by Africa, where we see a sink decline in the best-monitored plots beginning about 2010.
Amazon forests are declining earlier and faster than African forests because of three groups of factors.
First, trees in Amazonia tend to be more dynamic than those in Africa, with trees dying at a higher rate, meaning that past gains growth leave the system sooner resulting in an earlier saturating sink.
Second, the Amazon tends to experience higher temperatures because it is closer to sea level, faster temperature rises, and more frequent and severe droughts than African forests have experienced over recent decades.
Third, Amazon forest species appear less resistant to droughts than African forests. This may be because of the long-term climate history of African forests. The region has weathered large range contractions in glacial periods of Earth’s history, leaving more adaptable species that have survived past episodes of rapid environmental change.
Overall, African forests are more robust to recent contemporary environmental change than Amazon forests, our analysis suggests. While African forests cover much less area than Amazon forests, for the period 2000-10, the carbon sink was the same on both continents.

Forest forecast
For the final part of our study, we used the knowledge gleaned from our datasets to construct statistical models for forecasting changes to future tropical forest carbon uptake.
Using future CO2, temperature and rainfall estimates alongside our models, we predict that, on average, the per unit area carbon sink in African forest will be 14% smaller by 2030 compared to 2010-15 levels, while the average Amazon forest sink will reach zero by 2035.
Parts of the intact Amazon that are affected by drought could turn from a carbon sink to a carbon source, according to our analysis. This will be because carbon losses from tree mortality overtake carbon gains from growth.
Overall, we predict a sink-to-source transition of one of Earth’s major carbon sinks, with the Amazonia sink saturating first, followed later by the African sink.
The chart below shows how the ability of African forests (blue) and Amazonian forests (red) to uptake carbon is projected to change by 2040, calculated using our measurement-based statistical models.
(The chart also shows how our measurement-based assessment of carbon uptake in Amazonian and African forests from 1990 to present compares with projections from statistical models, which are shown in light blue for Africa and pink for Amazonia.)

Estimates and projections of tropical carbon sinks. The study’s measurement-based estimates of carbon uptake in Amazonia and Africa are shown in red and blue, respectively. Light blue and pink show projections from statistical models. Source: Rammig et al. (2020) Data source: Hubau et al. (2020)
Policy implications
Our findings highlight several key messages for policymakers. First, on-the-ground tropical forest monitoring programs need funding, as the changes we predict are subtle and cannot be deduced from satellite data alone.
Second, tropical forests matter. For now, they are still a carbon sink and will always be a large store of carbon. Forests’ resistance to climate change is relatively high if left undisturbed. Controlling logging and fires is essential.
Third, the need to reduce emissions to net zero just got more urgent. If society leaves it too late to tackle emissions, nature will make the job of controlling climate change much more difficult.
Finally, avoiding a transition to a carbon source will require stabilising the climate by reaching net-zero emissions. If tropical forests sequester less carbon than models predict, an earlier date by which to reach net zero will be required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

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(AU) Scientists Warn Of 'Critical Gaps' In Australia's Climate Science Capability

The Guardian

Exclusive: Australia needs the expertise to predict changes which have a major impact across the country, a review finds
Cattle on a drought-affected property in NSW. There are gaps in Australia’s ability to understand the processes that underpin climate change, scientists say. Photograph: David Gray/Reuters 
A government-backed review of Australia’s climate science capability has identified “critical gaps” in the nation’s ability to understand the processes that underpin climate change, with atmospheric modelling lagging other countries.
It found Australia was in danger of losing “critical expertise” needed to predict changes in major climate patterns, such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole, that have a major impact across the continent.
On atmospheric modelling, it found research had fallen “well behind those that lead the world”, partly because of a “lack of computational power and data storage”.
The report, seen by Guardian Australia and expected to be released this week, was requested by the government-appointed National Climate Science Advisory Committee to help develop a strategy in the area.
It was co-ordinated by the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (Clex), and finalised after a workshop and survey of researchers at academic institutions and government agencies.
The report focused on research into “climate processes”, which cover issues including the behaviour of clouds and how air moves in the atmosphere, and the dynamics of oceans and ice-covered regions.
It concluded the research effort across Australia was substantial, including a “very strong, world-leading effort” in observing the oceans. But while the country had a good foundation of research, coordination was lacking.
The survey found there were 466 full-time equivalent staff and students dedicated to investigating climate processes, but there was a “sub-critical mass” of research into aspects of atmospheric physics that were integral to phenomena like heatwaves and the cycle of El Niño and La Nina, a natural cycle that can have major influence on Australian rainfall and heat.
The report said: “The loss of expertise in these areas represents a critical threat to Australia’s ability to understand and predict such phenomena into the future. The shortage of expertise in these areas requires urgent correction.”
It said there was also evidence efforts to develop climate models were “approaching critical thresholds of under-resourcing and capacity limits”. While Australia was putting a “significant effort” into understanding the processes of the cryosphere – parts of the planet covered in ice – the efforts were fragmented.
In a summary, the report says: “The report concludes that a transformation of climate processes research into a community working collectively towards national goals in a common science framework is essential.
“Given the underpinning role of processes research for all other climate research this transformation provides the foundation for providing solutions to the climate-related societal challenges ahead.”
To combat the issues, the report suggested a “community-wide research network” be created, and short-term “accelerator institutes” funded to tackle key knowledge gaps.
In 2017, the Australian Academy of Science issued a report into Australia’s climate science capability that also identified risks. It said the team developing Australia’s weather and modelling system – Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (Access) – was a “small fraction of the size of groups building equivalent models for their regions in other countries”.
The report was requested by the National Climate Science Advisory Committee, which itself issued a report in June 2019 that was not made publicly available until 19 December 2019.
A Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment spokesman said the report was commissioned by the environment minister, Sussan Ley, and the science minister, Karen Andrews, after they received recommendations from the National Climate Science Advisory Committee.
He said it would “help ensure the government’s climate science activities are better coordinated and prioritised to maintain and strengthen Australia’s climate research capability”.
“The government is committed to climate science investment and is progressing the establishment of an enhanced climate science advisory group that will build on the work of the National Climate Science Advisory Committee to ensure that Australian decision makers have continued access to world class scientific information,” the spokesman said.

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