10/02/2021

(AU) Australia's Climate Wars Were Always Stupid. Now They've Got Even Dumber

The Guardian - 

Climate action wreckers who used to rant about real things – carbon pricing, a national energy guarantee – are spouting about policies that don’t even exist

‘Michael McCormack has (sort of) advocated carving out agriculture from the government’s non-existent mechanism to reach net zero emissions by 2050.’ Photograph: Sam Mooy/Getty Images

Author
Katharine Murphy is Guardian Australia's political editor. She has worked in Canberra's parliamentary gallery for 15 years.
Given Australian politics has transited back to climate change, stupid isn’t really a shock. Stupid is the default.

But even though stupid is to be expected – and stupid always gets supercharged when the Coalition fuses its climate change “debates” with internal leadership tension – I’m still gobsmacked that somehow, over the past 72 hours, we have managed to move to somewhere even dumber. Let me explain what I mean by this.

In the past, the climate action wreckers nestled comfortably at the heart of Australia’s political system have spent years conducting hyperbolic post-truth seminars at taxpayer expense about various policy mechanisms required to reduce greenhouse emissions – policy mechanisms that were floated, worked up bureaucratically, and legislated.

Fully fleshed out mechanisms. Carbon pricing. A national energy guarantee. Real things.

But over the past few days, we’ve broken new ground.

Now, the same self-appointed Luddites of the low emissions revolution, folks with elbows sharper than wits, are posturing hyperbolically about policy mechanisms that, wait for it, [narrator whispers] don’t actually exist.

Wreckers have replaced ranting about something with ranting about nothing.

Given this all might sound implausible to anyone still in possession of their sanity, allow me to step you through the past 72 hours.

Michael McCormack, the federal Nationals leader, opened the batting during a television interview on Sunday when he (sort of) advocated carving out agriculture from the government’s non-existent mechanism to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

We’ll get back to the non-existent mechanism shortly, but first we need to complete the roll call. Given McCormack had taken a hapless swing at a shadow, the Nationals’ interminable leadership soap opera then cranked into gear.

Joyce and Canavan Bush Lawyers turned up on cue to one-up McCormack. Matt Canavan and Barnaby Joyce thought they might cross the floor against net zero.

Stirring stuff. A volley of verbs in a wind tunnel of nothingness.

In case you’ve missed the trigger for Flamboyant Incoherence: the Musical (also known as the meltdown within the Nationals), Scott Morrison has been warming up to the idea that the government (might) do something to possibly nudge Australia in the direction of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 – as long as technology magics this transition and not a terrible tax that no one is advocating.

Morrison’s frequent tyre kicking and market testing on net zero is promising for those of us who dare to hope. But substantively, the government’s position has not changed.

Let me repeat that: nothing, zip, zero has changed. There is no concrete commitment, no mechanism, no nothing.

Even if Morrison were to replace his musing with a concrete undertaking to sign up to net zero tomorrow, and was prepared to back that with a legislated commitment, it’s entirely unclear how Australia would get there.

This begs obvious questions. Agriculture should be exempted from … what exactly? Exempted from the technology roadmap the Nationals welcomed? Exempted from a nominal, highly caveated, possible mid-century target that Morrison hasn’t committed to adopting, and hasn’t even begun to talk about legislating?

Are people now proposing to cross the floor to oppose periodic prime ministerial emissions of what Tony Abbott was fond of calling colourless, odourless, weightless gas?

Are they crossing the floor against Morrison’s feeling that he might do something? Will we see the first floor cross against a prime ministerial feeling recorded in Hansard?

Is McCormack proposing an emotional carve-out for agriculture: a carve out you feel in your gut? I can see the advertisements now. “I feel like farmers should be out of this thing. Whatever it is. Don’t mind me, I just occupy the second highest office in the land. I’m Michael McCormack, thanks for listening. The end.”

I suppose there is a slim chance these characters are actually on to something.

Perhaps all this hostile warbling has uncovered Morrison’s secret plan to do something (rather than talk about doing something in order to establish whether he can get away with some action without ending up like Malcolm Turnbull).

Perhaps Morrison hasn’t been flying kites.

Perhaps a mid-century white paper with targets, trajectories, mechanisms and enforceable regulations is going to fall, fully formed, out of a cupboard in the prime minister’s office within days. Dare to dream.

But while we are busy dreaming, and hoping that one day what passes for a debate about climate action in this country can be something other than recurrent cycles of post-truth hell, trapped outside this circus are the people the Nationals claim to represent – people trying to make a living on the land.

Regional communities are increasingly embracing regenerative farming and sustainability as a matter of self-preservation. Some days, they must wonder whether or not there are any truth-tellers left in public life.

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(AU) View From The Hill: Michael McCormack Buffeted By Nationals Climate Battle

The Conversation - 

Dave Hunt/AAP

Author
 is Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra     
The Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack will have to navigate a slippery path when the Nationals begin discussing Scott Morrison’s evident desire to embrace a 2050 net-zero emissions target.

Although Morrison has not adopted the target, and has put conditions on his move towards it, all the signs are that he wants to do so in coming months.

But this would require the minor Coalition partner to sign up. Nationals sources say they expect the issue to be canvassed at next Monday’s regular party meeting.

The Nationals are divided, putting McCormack, whose leadership is perennially under attack from a group within the party, in a very difficult position.

Some Nationals are sceptical of the assurance given by Morrison last week that regional Australia would not be left worse off in any change in the government’s climate policy. He insisted any change would only be driven by technology and not involve higher taxes.

The minimum price for a Nationals’ sign up would be the exemption of agriculture, which accounts for about 13% of total emissions.

Adopting the 2050 target would boost Australia’s currently low international credibility on climate change, which has been further highlighted by the election of the Biden administration with its big ambitions.

Agriculture Minister David Littleproud would be disposed to finding a way to adopting the target.

Littleproud told the ABC on Monday: “The National Party’s made it very clear, that until we can be honest with the Australian public about how you reach net zero by 2050, we’re simply signing up to platitudes”.

But even with the carve out of agriculture, and other aid for farmers, a move to the target is being strongly resisted by former resources minister Matt Canavan and some other Nationals backbenchers. Canavan, interviewed on Sky, said he was prepared to “fight like hell”.

“I don’t think we should be talking about the weather in 30 years time” but instead concentrating on more pressing matters, he said.

Former leader Barnaby Joyce told The Conversation Morrison was being very clever.

He “has inspired the Nationals to have negotiations on what they will or won’t accept on a policy he has not even announced”.

Joyce said there was concern among Nationals “if we get this wrong and go to an election, it could be catastrophic”.

He said McCormack “has to be tough enough to say ‘no’ and mean it – otherwise you are going to get whatever they dish up”.

The National Farmers Federation reiterated on Monday “farming and agriculture cannot be worse off going forward with any carbon commitments or emissions reduction schemes”.

CEO Tony Mahar said: “The NFF has a clear climate change policy that supports an economy-wide [net carbon zero] 2050 target with two clear caveats – that there is an economically viable pathway forward and agriculture is not worse off”.

Mahar said farmers were well placed to seize the opportunities from a reduced emissions future, and many were doing so.

He said much work was being done, led by government and industry, on measuring agriculture’s contribution to sequestering and reducing emissions, particularly in the complex area of soil carbon.

“It is important this work is completed before determining agriculture’s role in any national emissions reduction target,” he said.

“Care needs to be taken that agricultural land does not get transferred into carbon sinks that are subeconomic, havens for feral plants and animals and a fire risk.

"Offsetting is a legitimate solution that must meet economic viability thresholds that allow benchmarked income and proper management.”

NSW environment Minister Matt Kean last week criticised as “ridiculous” Morrison’s saying he wouldn’t commit to the 2050 target before he could say how it would be achieved.

“[US president John] Kennedy didn’t know how to get to the moon when he set the target,” Kean said.

“Let’s set the goal — and I have every confidence in the Australian people, our industry and their enterprising nature to be able to hit that goal.”

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(AU) Europe Is Planning A Fancy New Climate Club And Australia WILL NOT BE INVITED!

The Guardian - First Dog On The Moon

Sorry no weirdy denialist LOSERS allowed 

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09/02/2021

(AU) Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack Flags Excluding Agriculture From 2050 Climate Target

ABC News - Jade Macmillan

Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack said his immediate focus was on issues other than climate targets. (ABC News: Sean Davey)
Key Points
  • The Prime Minister says it's "preferable" to reach net zero emissions by 2050 but hasn't set a target
  • Deputy PM Michael McCormack has suggested agriculture could be excluded
  • Labor argues Australia needs to reach carbon neutrality "across the economy"
Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack says the Government might consider excluding agriculture from future long-term climate change targets.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has declared his goal is to reach net zero emissions "as soon as possible, and preferably by 2050", although he has not committed to it.

Mr McCormack said Australia could follow New Zealand's lead in exempting emissions from the agriculture sector.
"Indeed, that could well be one of the options, but as I say, it's a long way off," the Nationals leader told Sky News.

Australia’s peak farm body has thrown its weight behind an aspirational economy-wide target of net carbon zero by 2050.

Members of the National Farmers’ Federation (NFF) have voted in favour of the landmark policy – which includes strict caveats regarding fair implementation and economic viability – at an online meeting this month.

NFF President Fiona Simson said the strengthening of the NFF’s climate goals was a strong reminder of the role farmers already played in tackling emissions.

“Australia’s farm sector continues to be a leader in reducing greenhouse gas emissions,” Ms Simson said.

“In the past decade, agriculture has consistently reduced its emissions intensity and net emissions within the Australian economy."

Read more ...
"New Zealand, well yes they've said that 2050 is a target but they've also had that caveat with their agriculture.

"Well if that's what it takes, well that's what it takes, but we're not going to hurt regional Australia, we're not going to hurt those wonderful people who've put food on our table."

New Zealand has set a 2050 target of reaching net zero emissions "of all greenhouse gases other than biogenic methane".

McCormack 'not worried about what might happen in 30 years'

Mr McCormack said he did not want to see regional areas disproportionately affected by Australia's climate change response but argued his immediate focus was on other issues.

"There are huge challenges in 2021 and we're not worried, well I'm certainly not worried, about what might happen in 30 years' time," he said.

"The concentration at the moment indeed for me, for the National Party and indeed for regional Australia is getting back on our feet after what's been a very challenging year."

Richard Marles said Australia needed to reach carbon neutrality. (ABC News: Matt Roberts)

Asked whether agriculture should be exempted from a potential 2050 target, Deputy Labor leader Richard Marles said Australia needed to reach carbon neutrality "across the economy".

"That's what Paris requires and that's the commitment that we have made," he told the ABC's Insiders program.
"Labor has made a commitment, we didn't hear that from the Government this week.
"I'm not sure what he heard from the Prime Minister, it might have been a hope, an aspiration, 'inching' I think is the word, but what we did not hear was a commitment."

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Water Scarcity Likely In The Himalayan Catchment If Warming Continues

The Hindu - Aswathi Pacha



The coldly white snowpacks and glaciers of the Himalayas that make for a picturesque panorama are also important sources of water for about a billion people who live in the basins of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers.

But with rising global temperatures, these snowpacks and glaciers, which are highly sensitive, are affected.

This, in turn, affects the Himalayan hydrology. India, Nepal, Pakistan and China hugely depend on these Himalayan rivers for their daily needs and energy production.

Himalayan rivers

A new paper published last month studied how these Himalayan rivers are affected by the different components – rainfall-runoff, snow-melt and glacier-melt – and notes that if drier and warmer scenarios continue in the near future (2031–2050), we are more likely to face water stress in these catchment areas.

They also note that if there is increased rainfall, this could lead to a water surplus situation.

The team studied five basins in the central Himalaya – Sutlej, Thulo Bheri, Kali Gandaki, Dudh Kosi and Arun. They analysed the daily precipitation, maximum and minimum daily temperatures, wind speeds, land cover, elevation and soil properties.

“We developed a new glacier melt model and integrated it to the currently used land surface model. The currently used land surface model – used even by the Ministry of Earth Sciences – does not take into account glacier melt. This could lead to serious errors in the study of north-Indian rivers. Our model helps make the current one complete and turns it into a more advanced and better one,” explains Subimal Ghosh, the corresponding author of the paper published in Water Resources Research. He is from the Department of Civil Engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay.

Wetter scenario

The results show that the glacier-melt increases about 15% to 70% in a warmer environment with its present volume, but then decreases to 3%–38% substantially when the glacier volumes shrink. However, such a decrease can be compensated if there is increased rainfall and if a wetter scenario persists.

“Snowpacks and glaciers are two important water storage units in the Himalaya. Though snow is lower density and will melt easily in a warming climate, the reduced snowfall will in turn reduce the amount of snow-melt. Though glacier melt will increase initially, they will shrink in size quickly and the amount of glacier melt will also decline in the latter end of the century,” adds Vikram S. Chandel, first author of the paper. He is a research scholar of Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, IIT Bombay. The future study will focus on understanding the predictability of the land-atmospheric processes.

The team notes that proper water-management and governance are urgently required. “Changing patterns of precipitation systems — Indian Summer Monsoon and Western Disturbances — are important for the future situation of water resources in Himalayan catchments,” adds the paper.

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(India) Climate Change Behind Uttarakhand Glacier Burst, Experts Feel

Times of India - Krishnendu Bandyopadhyay

A massive flood in the Dhauli Ganga river was triggered by a glacial burst in Uttarakhand's Chamoli district on Sunday. (Photo: PTI)

KOLKATA: The glacier burst at Uttarakhand is an outcome of climate change in the Himalayan region which is warming up faster than the other mountain regions, say experts.

Incremental use of reinforced concrete cement structures replacing the traditional wood and stone masonry is accelerating a heat-island impact in the mountain region. There are more than 8000 glacial lakes in the Himalayas of which 200 are classified as dangerous. 

The glacier collapse at Joshimath on Sunday led to a massive flood in the Dhauli Ganga river and caused large-scale devastation in the upper reaches of the ecologically fragile Himalayas. 


“Glacier retreat and permafrost thaw are projected to decrease the stability of mountain slopes and increase the number and area of glacier lakes (high confidence). Resulting landslides and floods, and cascading events, will also emerge where there is no record of previous events (high confidence),” says the Special Report on Oceans and Cryptosphere (SROCC) by Inter governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC).



“There is high confidence that current global glacier shrinkage caused new lakes to form and existing lakes to grow in most regions, for instance in South America, High mountain Asia and Europe,” the report says.

“There is also high confidence that the number and area of glacier lakes will continue to increase in most regions in the coming decades, and new lakes will develop closer to steep and potentially unstable mountain walls where lake outbursts can be more easily triggered by the impact of landslides,” it adds.

The IPCC reports that climate change has altered the frequency and magnitude of the natural hazards. In some regions snow avalanches involving wet snow have increased while the rain on snow floods have also increased at lower elevations in springs.

"We do not have the data now to give you information on what has caused the avalanche in the Chamoli district but what we know, prima-facia, is that this looks very much like a climate change event as the glaciers are melting due to global warming," said said Dr. Anjal Prakash, Research Director and Adjunct Associate Professor at the Indian School of Business (ISB), Hyderabad.

The impact of global warming on glacial retreat is well documented.

The recent assessment report called the HI-MAP report facilitated by ICIMOD has also pointed these out. The report shows that temperatures are rising in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region and the rise in global temperature will have more impact in the Himalayan region due to elevation-dependent warming.

"If the world can keep the temperature rise to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, in the HKH region it would translate to at least a rise of 1.8 C, and in some places, above 2.2 C," said Prakash who was Coordinating Lead Author of the special report on Oceans and Cryosphere, 2018 and Lead Author of the ongoing 6th Assessment report of IPCC.

Calling it a "very rare incident," Dr Mohd Farooq Azam, Assistant Professor, Glaciology & Hydrology, IIT Indore, said it is unlikely that this was a cloud burst.

"Weather reports in Chamoli district show sunny weather till today with no record of precipitation. There is no doubt that global warming has resulted in the warming of the region," says Azam.

"Climate change driven erratic weather patterns like increased snowfall and rainfall, warmer winters has led to the melting point of a lot of snow. The thermal profile of ice is increasing, where earlier the temperature of ice ranged from -6 to -20 degree C, it is now -2, making it more susceptible to melting," Azam said.

Prakash wants the government to spend more on monitoring the Himalayan region.

"Himalayan regions area are also least monitored region and this event actually shows how vulnerable we could be. Spending more will ensure we have more information about the change process. The result would be that we are more aware and could develop better adaptation practices," he further said.

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08/02/2021

(AU) Wealthy Victorians Least Likely To Support Climate Action: Poll

The Age - Miki Perkins

When former Labor frontbencher Joel Fitzgibbon quit the opposition shadow cabinet last year, he said his party needed to reduce its ambition on climate change to win back blue-collar workers.

“Demonising and blaming blue-collar workers will not stabilise our climate,” he tweeted at the time.

But it’s wealthy Victorians, rather than blue-collar workers, who are least likely to support climate action and the transition to renewable energy, according to new polling commissioned by the Victorian Trades Hall Council, which represents 43 trade unions and eight regional trades hall councils.

Construction worker Tom Shiels with Filamena Bruce and their children Charlie (3 years old) and Hattie (1 month). Credit: Joe Armao

The large poll of 3000 Victorian adults found while those who called themselves working class were not as enthusiastic about climate action as those who described themselves as middle or upper middle class, it was wealthy people who were the most unsupportive.

About 35 per cent of wealthy respondents said they were unconcerned about climate change, compared with about 30 per cent of those who described themselves as working class.

Almost 40 per cent of wealthy Victorians said they didn’t think the government should take action on climate change, compared with about 30 per cent of working class.

Labor MP Joel Fitzgibbon. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

And 45 per cent of wealthy respondents believed that investing in renewable energy will cost jobs, compared with 33 per cent of working class people, 20 per cent of middle class and 29 per cent of upper middle class.

Attitudes to climate change were also deeply partisan: with 62 per cent of Labor voters concerned about climate change, compared with 13 per cent of Liberal voters.

Trades hall council secretary Luke Hilakari acknowledged there were sectors where “big conversations” needed to take place, including with the one-third of blue-collar workers concerned that investment in renewables would cost jobs.

But he said the views of politicians like Joel Fitzgibbon were “totally out of touch” with working people.

Governments should throw more support behind new industries like green hydrogen and large scale wind to provide future jobs, he said. “The people in the Latrobe Valley are not stupid, they know everything is changing.”

In response, Mr Fitzgibbon said working people cared about climate change and renewable energy but didn’t like government policies like a carbon tax, or equivalent, which they saw as a threat to job security.

Mr Fitzgibbon said his electoral area, the Hunter region in NSW, was close to securing a huge solar farm on the site of the former hydro aluminium smelter and was also hoping for a pumped hydro project.

“I don’t know what’s happened to these trade union leaders who once focused on the rights, interests and aspirations of working people but now spend their time obsessing about climate change and renewable energy,” he said.

Conducted last November, the poll is part of the trades hall council’s landmark Transitions from Crisis report, released late last year. Supported by Environment Victoria, it has policy suggestions on responding to climate change in a way that puts affected workers first.

The poll showed that, broadly, about 60 per cent of Victorians want more investment in renewable energy and 75 per cent are concerned about climate.

The response was noticeably gendered, with women more likely to urge greater action. For example, 45 per cent of women were “extremely concerned” about climate change, compared with 36 per cent of men.

These findings are similar to other polling including that done by Australian think tank the Lowy Institute, which has been surveying Australians about their views on global warming and climate change for the past 14 years.

Since 2012, concern about global warming has been rising steadily and in 2020 60 per cent of Australians surveyed said climate change was a risk to Australia’s vital interests, and 77 per cent felt the same way about drought and water storages.

Builder’s labourer Tom Shiels, who lives with his young family in Carlton, has worked on large construction projects in Melbourne’s central business district for the past six years.

Some high-rise projects are incredibly wasteful and energy inefficient, he says, but developers are unlikely to change without a financial incentive.

A long-time Labor voter, but not a member, he has become increasingly disenchanted and feels the party has “lost its way” on climate, failing to advocate strongly enough for blue-collar workers during the economic transition. He said this was a view shared amongst his colleagues.

“Climate change is real and so are workers’ rights. If we can tackle both at the same time we’ll all be better off,” he said.

Last year, faced with public urging from Joel Fitzgibbon to move Labor’s long-time climate spokesperson Mark Butler, opposition leader Anthony Albanese refused to do so. But last week Mr Albanese shifted Butler in favour of the more conservative Chris Bowen.

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