AAP FactCheck - George Driver | Peter Bodkin
AAP FactCheck Investigation: Does foreign coal produce 50 per cent more
emissions than Australia’s?
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Then treasurer Scott Morrison wielding a lump of coal in parliament
in 2017.
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THE STATEMENT
"Because Australian coal compared to the coal that is sourced from other
countries, the other countries have 50 per cent higher emissions than
Australian coal."
Scott Morrison, Liberal Party leader and Australian prime minister,
December 15, 2020.
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THE VERDICT
AAP FactCheck found Mr Morrison's statement that coal from other countries
produced 50 per cent higher emissions than Australian coal to be
false.
While carbon dioxide emissions from burning thermal coal are linked to
its energy content, this relationship is not linear and the replacement
of Australian coal with lower-grade coal from another country would have
only a small impact on emissions, based on the available data.
Several countries also export coal of primarily the same or higher
energy content than Australia, meaning an export ban from China would
not necessarily lead to the local commodity being replaced with a
lower-grade product.
False - The checkable claim is false.
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THE ANALYSIS
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has claimed that coal from rival exporters
produces 50 per cent more emissions than the local product, leading to a
"lose-lose" scenario for the environment and the economy if Australia's supply
was displaced.
The prime minister made the statement during
a press conference on December 15
when he was asked about reports China was introducing a ban on some Australian
coal imports.
"If this were to be the practice, the four billion-odd that goes into coal-fired
power generation in China, it really is a lose-lose here," Mr Morrison said.
"Because Australian coal compared to the coal that is sourced from other
countries, the other countries have 50 per cent higher emissions than Australian
coal. As a result, that would be a bad outcome for the environment. It would be
a bad outcome for the trading relationship between Australia and China, that
both countries benefit from."
The comments were reported in
The Australian, the
Australian Financial Review
and the
ABC.
AAP FactCheck examined Mr Morrison's statement that coal from
other countries produces 50 per cent higher emissions than Australian coal.
When asked about the basis of the statement, the prime minister's office did not
provide a source but claimed it had already been
fact-checked by the ABC
and found to be accurate.
The ABC fact check investigated a
2015 statement from then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull
that global emissions could rise if Australia stopped exporting coal as "our
coal, by and large, is cleaner than the coal in many other countries".
The fact check said: "Australia's coal is on average high quality as a result of
its low moisture and ash content, and high carbon content, compared with other
countries, particularly Indonesia, the largest coal exporter in the world."
However, it largely focused on ash content and levels of polluting trace
elements. It did not include analysis of the relative greenhouse gas emissions
of coal from various exporters, and none of its sources showed that other
countries' coal produced 50 per cent higher emissions than Australian coal.
Mr Morrison's office did not respond to further questions from
AAP FactCheck about the basis for the statement.
Australia exports both
metallurgical coal, used to make steel, and
thermal coal, used in coal-fired power stations. As the prime minister referred to coal
used in Chinese power stations,
AAP FactCheck focused on carbon
emissions from thermal coal.
According to estimates
from the
International Energy Agency
(IEA), Australia was the second-largest exporter of thermal coal in 2020,
accounting for 20 per cent of exports, behind Indonesia with 40 per cent.
Australia was the sixth-largest overall producer of thermal coal.
AAP FactCheck contacted
Geoscience Australia, the
Minerals Council of Australia
and the
Australian Coal Association Research Programme, however none were able to provide information comparing coal emissions or
research on the emissions produced by Australian coal.
However, experts said emissions from coal were generally tied to the product's
grade and its energy content - although this relationship was far from linear.
A report provided by the Minerals Council for the
ABC fact check
noted that Australia was "a significant exporter of high energy-content thermal
coals" which "produce fewer emissions per unit of electricity produced".
The IEA provided
AAP FactCheck with
provisional 2019 figures
comparing the energy content of coal exports from several of the world's top
coal exporters and producers.
These showed that the energy content of the two main types of thermal coal for
export - "other bituminous" and the lower-grade "sub-bituminous" - was broadly
similar across all countries, with the exception of India, which generally
produced lower-quality coal.
The figures did show, however, that Australia only exported higher-energy
bituminous coal, while its main competitor, Indonesia, mainly exported
lower-grade sub-bituminous coal.
When
AAP FactCheck weighted the IEA's data for export volumes,
the energy content of Australian thermal coal was third-lowest - but still 13.2
per cent higher than Indonesian coal and 64.7 per cent higher than Indian coal.
However, it should be noted that India exported a negligible amount of thermal
coal - around 0.3 per cent of Australia's volume - therefore it is unlikely a
trade dispute would result in China burning significantly more Indian coal.
Dale Hazelton, head of Asia Pacific thermal coal at energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, told
AAP FactCheck it was important to note there wasn't a linear
relationship between emissions and energy content, which meant that emissions
from similar power plants burning different grades of coal may be little
different.
"Generally speaking, all bituminous (high-quality) coals are the same in terms
of carbon emissions," he said.
"If you compare Australian bituminous coals to every other country's bituminous
coals, they're roughly equivalent in energy content. So Russia and Australia are
going to have roughly the same combustion emissions.
"Australian coal tends towards bituminous in rank, which is lower-emitting,
while the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, Indonesia, tends towards the
lignite (higher-emission) side."
Mr Hazelton cited 2006
guidelines from the International Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) which estimated the emissions from different coal grades when used in
"energy industries" (page 2.16).
The guidelines said emissions from coal ranged from 94,600kg of greenhouse gas
per terajoule of energy from other bituminous coal to 96,100kg for
sub-bituminous coal - a difference of just 1.6 per cent. The figure for lignite
was 101,000kg - 6.8 per cent higher than the bituminous grade.
One of the authors of the IPCC guidelines,
Gregg Marland, an adjunct research professor at North Carolina's Appalachian State
University, told
AAP FactCheck via email that the heat produced
by coal increased with its carbon content, which in turn increased carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions.
This meant that while higher-grade coals produced more energy, they also
produced more emissions relative to their weight due to their higher carbon
content.
"If we measure CO2 emissions (against) units of (energy), then all coals are
indeed pretty closely the same," he said.
Dr Marland referred to
a 2006 report
he co-authored for the
then-US Climate Change Science Program
which said the carbon content of coal was directly linked to its heat output
(figure 2, page II-14).
A 2016
US Environmental Protection Agency guidance document
gave similar figures to the IPCC guidelines, with bituminous coal producing
93.28kg of carbon dioxide per energy unit, compared to 97.17kg for
sub-bituminous coal - a difference of 4.2 per cent (table A-3, page 19).
AAP FactCheck found few sources directly comparing the
emissions from various grades of coal,
however one 1994 article
from the US Energy Information Administration compared the CO2 emission factors
- the amount of the gas produced for the same energy output - for different coal
samples from across the country.
It found the difference in carbon emissions between the lowest-emission
bituminous coal and the highest-emission lignite nationwide was only 9.6 per
cent (table FE4).
Meanwhile, a
2015 report
on the quality and environmental impact of Australian coal by the US-based
Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
(IEEFA) showed Australia's export thermal coal had the same or lower energy
content than Russian and South African coal but higher energy than Indonesian
and Indian coal, based on 2014 figures from
energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie
(page 2).
Report author
Tim Buckley, the director of Australia/South Asia energy finance studies at IEEFA, said
the prime minister's claim that other countries' thermal coal produced 50 per
cent more emissions was "nonsense".
Mr Buckley said the development of modern, efficient coal power plants also
meant the quality of the coal had less of an impact on emissions than in older
plants, adding that a ban on Australian coal exports to China would make no
difference to global emissions.
"If our coal isn't burned in China, then someone else will burn our coal. The
idea that (a ban) will increase emissions is nonsense."
A 2013
Congressional Research Service report
noted CO2 emissions from coal-fired plants could be reduced by burning higher
grades of coal, however it also noted a strong link between the type and
efficiency of coal plants and emissions.
University of Adelaide associate professor Liam Wagner, who researches energy markets, agreed that in general, emissions produced
from burning other countries' thermal coal would not be 50 per cent higher than
emissions from Australian coal.
"Australian black steaming coal is just as dirty as high-quality black steaming
coal from anywhere else, and by quality I mean energy per tonne of coal," Dr
Wagner said.
"But to say in general Australia's coal is better or worse than coal in China
is, again, a nonsense."
Editor's note: AAP FactCheck has expanded its ability to
fact-check environmental issues with the support of the Australian Conservation
Foundation. AAP FactCheck retains full editorial independence in this project
and continues to apply the rigorous standards required for accredited members of
the
International Fact-Checking Network.
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