(DeSmog) Scientists Who Issued ‘Climate Emergency’ Declaration In 2019 Now Say Earth’s Vital Signs Are Worsening

DeSmog - Nick Cunningham

A rapid and urgent phaseout of fossil fuels is needed, scientists warn, in order to avoid crossing dangerous climate tipping points.

Wildfires in Chubut, Argentina, March 2021. Credit: Greenpeace Media

From devastating wildfires to rising methane emissions, Earth’s vital signs are continuing to deteriorate, scientists warn.

An urgent global phaseout of fossil fuels is needed, they say, reiterating calls for “transformative change,” which is “needed now more than ever to protect life on Earth and remain within as many planetary boundaries as possible.”

The warning comes roughly a year and a half after a global coalition of 11,000 climate scientists declared a climate emergency, warning that global action was needed to avoid “untold suffering due to the climate crisis.”

The new paper examining Earth’s vital signs, published in the journal BioScience, is authored by some of the same scientists who helped spearhead the climate emergency declaration.

“There is growing evidence we are getting close to or have already gone beyond tipping points associated with important parts of the Earth system, including warm-water coral reefs, the Amazon rainforest and the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets,” William Ripple, a professor of ecology at Oregon State University (OSU) and one of the paper’s lead authors, said in a statement.

The team of researchers and scientists, collaborating from Massachusetts in the U.S., Australia, the U.K., France, the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and Germany, took stock of 31 variables that collectively offer a gauge for the planet’s health. Many of those metrics have worsened since the group originally declared a climate emergency in 2019.

Both methane and carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have reached new record highs, the study reveals.

Sea ice has dramatically shrunk, and so too has the ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica.

Wildfires in the U.S. are burning more acreage.

And deforestation in the Amazon is occurring at its fastest rate in 12 years.

Ruminant livestock — cows, sheep and goats — now exceed 4 billion, and their total mass exceeds that of humans and wild animals combined.

Cows in particular are huge contributors to climate change due methane emissions released from belching, and deforestation resulting from clearing land for livestock.

Forests cleared in Brazil for agriculture. Credit: CIFOR. CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

The global pandemic offered only a modest and brief respite from some of these trends, the scientists note, such as a short drop in the use of fossil fuels as the world went into lockdown, but a quick rebound in oil and gas consumption demonstrates that the world remains stuck on a dangerous track.

The worsening vital signs “largely reflect the consequences of unrelenting business as usual,” the authors said in a statement.

Not every data point was negative, however, and there were some signs of hope. The level of fossil fuel subsidies has declined since 2019, although part of that was due to the collapse of energy use and market prices during the pandemic.

Fossil fuel divestment also picked up pace, increasing by $6.5 trillion between 2018 and 2020. And a growing number of governments have officially recognized the climate emergency — pledging to cut emissions and accelerate a push towards clean energy.

The authors also note that the share of global greenhouse gas emissions coming under some form of carbon pricing — a way of discouraging unchecked greenhouse gas emissions — also increased from 14.4 percent to 23.2 percent, largely due to expanding carbon pricing in China.

While that offered some hope, the scientists found that the global average carbon price under these programs stood at around US$15.49 per ton, much too low to ratchet down emissions.

The authors said global carbon pricing needs to increase “severalfold to be highly effective” in cutting the use of fossil fuels, and it should be linked to a “socially just green climate fund to finance climate mitigation and adaptation policies in the Global South.”

The scientists said the world needs to rapidly phase out fossil fuels, scale up carbon pricing programs at the global level, and develop climate reserves to protect natural carbon sinks such as forests, wetlands, and mangroves.

“Policies to alleviate the climate crisis or any of the other threatened planetary boundary transgressions should not be focused on symptom relief but on addressing their root cause: the overexploitation of the Earth,” the authors wrote in their paper.

The warning comes as politicians continue to drag their feet on ambitious climate action.

On July 22, a report from BloombergNEF was released, finding that G20 countries — the richest nations in the world — subsidized fossil fuels by roughly $3.3 trillion between 2015 and 2019.

The following day, the environment ministers of G20 countries met in Naples, Italy.

They failed, however, to reach a consensus on calling for a global phaseout of coal, and they also could not agree on tightening up the climate goals laid out in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

The summit in Naples is meant to lay the groundwork for the much more important climate negotiations to be held in Glasgow later this year.

Flood damage in Germany. Credit: Greenpeace Media.

The Ponina Fire in Oregon, April 2021. Credit: National Interagency Fire Center.

Meanwhile, governments are also not following global calls to shift their pandemic-related economic recovery programs to forms of “green stimulus.”

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said only 2 percent of global fiscal stimulus is being funneled into clean energy.

“Not only is clean energy investment still far from what’s needed to put the world on a path to reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century, it’s not even enough to prevent global emissions from surging to a new record,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said.

The lagging response to a worsening climate crisis comes despite the destruction from disasters becoming more pronounced, with record heat in the Pacific Northwest, wildfires across the American West and in Siberia, and horrendous floods in China, Belgium, and Germany.

“Climate change is not abstract right now. It is in our face,” Ripple of OSU told DeSmog. “Just seeing the suffering around the fires, the floods, the heat waves and the drought … it’s accelerating a lot faster than I personally thought even two years ago when we made our scientist warning of a climate emergency declaration.”

“I think we’re all sitting back and reassessing,” Ripple said. “A lot of us are shocked about the speed and magnitude of what’s happening right now.”

Links

• World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2021
• Climate Crisis: 11,000 Scientists Warn Of ‘Untold Suffering’ 
• Most countries' climate plans 'totally inadequate' – experts
• BioScience: World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency
• Climate Emergency Declarations In 1,123 Jurisdictions And Local Governments Cover 285 Million Citizens
• Most countries’ climate plans ‘totally inadequate’ – experts
• World 'gravely' unprepared for effects of climate crisis – report
• Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think
• Climate Scientist: Our Profession Is Letting Down Humanity – We Must Change The Way We Approach The Climate Crisis
• Climate Change Is Accelerating, According To A New UN Report
• Ahead Of UN Summit, Leading Scientists Warn Climate Change ‘Hitting Harder And Sooner’ Than Forecast
• 40 Years Ago, Scientists Predicted Climate Change. And Hey, They Were Right
• Here’s How The Hottest Month In Recorded History Unfolded Around The World
• Human-Caused Global Heating Breaks Clear From Nature, Studies Find
• Recent Warming ‘Unmatched In The Past 2000 Years’
• 2,000 Years Of Records Show It’s Getting Hotter, Faster 

(AU ABC) Legal Challenge Launched Against Federal Government's $21 Million Beetaloo Basin Grant

ABC News - Kate Ashton

Opening up the Beetaloo Basin has been identified as a priority in the Federal government's "gas-led recovery". (Supplied: Empire Energy)

Key Points The government grants were awarded as part of a $50 million program to speed up gas exploration in the NT Environmentalists will argue the decision did not consider climate change  Minister Keith Pitt says the lawsuit is baseless and will threaten jobs

Environmental groups are challenging a federal government decision to award millions of dollars in grants to a fracking company searching for gas buried deep in the Beetaloo Basin.

The Environment Centre NT and the Environmental Defenders Office have filed urgent legal action against Minister for Resources and Water, Keith Pitt, alleging he did not consider the potential risk to climate change or Australia's obligations under the Paris Agreement in his bid to expedite gas exploration in the Beetaloo Basin.

Earlier this month, the minister awarded three grants totalling $21 million to energy company Imperial Oil and Gas, a subsidiary of Empire Energy, to support three new exploration wells and "create thousands of jobs".

Documents filed in the Federal Court show lawyers will argue Mr Pitt failed to act in a way that was "reasonable, rational and logical".

Co-director of the Environment Centre NT (ENCT), Dr Kirsty Howey, said the grants were an irresponsible use of public funds.

"We want to see taxpayers money used wisely and with all the consequences being fully considered," she said.

"Granting $21 million to a private fossil fuel company should only be done after all care is taken to examine the impacts on climate change, the environment and the community.

Environment Centre NT co-director Kirsty Howey is asking the government to pause the grants program while the legal challenge takes its course. (ABC: Dane Hirst)

"The law requires the minister to be satisfied that the expenditure is a proper use of money … we say that means inquiries into the risks of a heating climate if the heart of the Northern Territory was opened up to fracking."

Minister Pitt condemned the lawsuit as a threat to thousands of jobs.

"This is another example of activists using the courts with baseless allegations to try and delay a nationally important resources project," he said.

"This latest case of green "lawfare" declared on legitimate projects threatens to delay an estimated 6000 new jobs being delivered for the Northern Territory along with around $37 billion on economic activity."

The Environmental Defenders Office, running the case on behalf of the ECNT, said the court battle would examine if proper process was followed when awarding the grants.

"Before making a decision to grant these funds, the relevant minister needed to make reasonable inquiries into a range of risks, including climate and economic risks, that may arise from the expenditure," Environmental Defenders Office chief executive David Morris said.

"We will argue on behalf of our client that the federal government did not make these reasonable inquiries, and thus the minister's decision is invalid."

The decision by Minister Keith Pitt, pictured with NT Environment Minister Eva Lawler, is facing a new legal challenge from the Environment Centre NT. (ABC News: Michael Donnelly)

The Beetaloo Basin is one of five Australian gas fields the federal government plans to accelerate development under its "gas-led recovery" from coronavirus.

The grants were awarded as part of the $50 million Beetaloo co-operative drilling program, first announced by Mr Pitt and NT CLP Senator Sam McMahon in December last year.

Mr Pitt said the grants were administered in line with proper process.

"Grants are provided to companies that possess the highly specialised skills to meet the challenges of developing the Basin as determined by an expert assessment panel," he said.

Empire Energy declined a request by the ABC to comment on the legal action, but at a senate hearing on Wednesday said it had not yet received the grant money.

The Environment Centre NT has called on the minister to halt the grants until the matter has been considered by the court.

Links

• (AU ABC) Human Rights Issue Or 'Green Lawfare'? Citizens Take To The Courts To Fight Climate Change
• (Legal) Climate Change Cases Doubled Past Six Years
• (AU ABC Law Report) Climate Change Litigation
• (AU The Guardian) 'One More Mine Does Make A Difference’: Australian Children Argue For The Climate – And The Law Agrees
• (AU The Guardian) Australian Government To Appeal Ruling That It Must Protect Children From Climate Harm
• (AU The Guardian) Australian Government Must Protect Young People From Climate Crisis Harm, Court Declares
• (AU SBS) In A Critical Year For Climate Justice, These Torres Strait Islanders Are Leading The Fight
• Lethal Heating: Legal Posts

(Modern Diplomacy) Sink Or Swim: Can Island States Survive The Climate Crisis?

Modern Diplomacy - MD Staff

The aftermath of Hurricane Irma in Barbuda. UNDP/Michael Atwood

Small island nations across the world are bearing the brunt of the climate crisis, and their problems have been accentuated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has severely affected their economies, and their capacity to protect themselves from possible extinction.

We take a look at some of the many challenges they face, and how they could be overcome.

Low emissions, but high exposure

The 38 member states and 22 associate members that the UN has designated as Small Island Developing States  or SIDS are caught in a cruel paradox: they are collectively responsible for less than one per cent of global carbon emissions, but they are suffering severely from the effects of climate change, to the extent that they could become uninhabitable.

Although they have a small landmass, many of these countries are large ocean states, with marine resources and biodiversity that are highly exposed to the warming of the oceans.

They are often vulnerable to increasingly extreme weather events, such as the devastating cyclones that have hit the Caribbean in recent years, and because of their limited resources, they find it hard to allocate funds to sustainable development programmes that could help them to cope better,for example, constructing more robust buildings that could withstand heavy storms.

The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the economic situation of many island states, which are heavily dependent on tourism. The worldwide crisis has severely curtailed international travel, making it much harder for them to repay debts.

“Their revenues have virtually evaporated with the end of tourism, due to lockdowns, trade impediments, the fall in commodity prices, and supply chain disruptions”, warned Munir Akram, the president of the UN Economic and Social Council in April. He added that their debts are “creating impossible financial problems for their ability to recover from the crisis.”

Most research indicates that low-lying atoll islands, predominantly in the Pacific Ocean such as the Marshall Islands and Kiribati, risk being submerged by the end of the century, but there are indications that some islands will become uninhabitable long before that happens: low-lying islands are likely to struggle with coastal erosion, reduced freshwater quality and availability due to saltwater inundation of freshwater aquifers.

This means that small islands nations could find themselves in an almost unimaginable situation, in which they run out of fresh water long before they run out of land.

Furthermore, many islands are still protected by reefs, which play a key role in the fisheries industry and balanced diets. These reefs are projected to die off almost entirely unless we limit warming below 1.5 degrees celsius.

Despite the huge drop in global economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic, the amount of harmful greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere increased in 2002, and the past six years, 2015–2020, are likely to be the six warmest on record.

Climate finance (climate-specific financial support) continues to increase, reaching an annual average of $48.7 billion in 2017-2018. This represents an increase of 10% over the previous 2015–2016 period.

While over half of all climate-specific financial support in the period 2017-2018 was targeted to mitigation actions, the share of adaptation support is growing, and is being prioritized by many countries. 

This is a cost-effective approach, because if not enough is invested in adaptation and mitigation measures, more resources will need to be spent on action and support to address loss and damage.

Switching to renewables

SIDS are dependent on imported petroleum to meet their energy demands. As well as creating pollution, shipping the fossil fuel to islands comes at a considerable cost. Recognizing these problems, some of these countries have been successful in efforts to shift to renewable energy sources.

For example, Tokelau, in the South Pacific, is meeting close to 100 per cent  of its energy needs through renewables, while Barbados, in the Caribbean, is committed to powering the country with 100 per cent renewable energy sources and reaching zero carbon emissions by 2030.

Several SIDS have also set ambitious renewable energy targets: Samoa, the Cook Islands, Cabo Verde, Fiji, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Vanuatu are aiming to increase the share of renewables in their energy mixes, from 60 to 100 per cent, whilst in 2018, Seychelles launched the world’s first sovereign blue bond, a pioneering financial instrument to support sustainable marine and fisheries projects.

The power of traditional knowledge

The age-old practices of indigenous communities, combined with the latest scientific innovations, are being increasingly seen as important ways to adapt to the changes brought about by the climate crisis, and mitigate its impact. 

In Papua New Guinea, local residents use locally-produced coconut oil as a cheaper, more sustainable alternative to diesel; seafaring vessels throughout the islands of Micronesia and Melanesia in the Pacific are using solar panels and batteries instead of internal combustion; mangrove forests are being restored on islands like Tonga and Vanuatu to address extreme weather as they protect communities against storm surges and sequester carbon; and in the Pacific, a foundation is building traditional Polynesian canoes, or vakas, serving as sustainable passenger and cargo transport for health services, education, disaster relief and research.

Strategies for survival

While SIDS have brought much needed attention to the plight of vulnerable nations, much remains to be done to support them in becoming more resilient, and adapting to a world of rising sea levels and extreme weather events.

On average, SIDS are more severely indebted than other developing countries, and the availability of “climate financing” (the money which needs to be spent on a whole range of activities which will contribute to slowing down climate change) is of key importance. 

More than a decade ago, developed countries committed to jointly mobilize $100 billion per year by 2020 in support of climate action in developing countries; the amount these nations are receiving is rising, but there is still a significant financing gap. A recently published UN News feature story explains how climate finance works, and the UN’s role.

Beyond adaptation and resilience to climate change, SIDS also need support to help them thrive in an ever-more uncertain world. The UN, through its Development Programme (UNDP), is helping these vulnerable countries in a host of ways, so that they can successfully diversify their economies; improve energy independence by building up renewable sources and reducing dependence on fuel imports; create and develop sustainable tourism industries, and transition to a “blue economy”, which protects and restores marine environments.

Fighting for recognition

For years, SIDS have been looking for ways to raise awareness of their plight and gain international support. As the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in 1990, they successfully lobbied for recognition of their particular needs in the text of the landmark UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) two years later.

Since then, the countries have continued to push for a greater emphasis on ensuring that international agreements include a commitment to providing developing countries with the funds to adapt to climate change.

An important step was ensuring that climate change negotiations address the issue of “loss and damage” (i.e. things that are lost forever, such as human lives or the loss of species, while damages refers to things that are damaged, but can be repaired or restored, such as roads or sea walls etc.).

SIDS continue to urge developed nations to show more ambition and commitment to tackling the climate crisis, and strongly support calls for a UN resolution to establish a legal framework to protect the rights of people displaced by climate change, and for the UN to appoint a Special Rapporteur on Climate and Security, to help manage climate security risks and provide support to vulnerable countries to develop climate-security risk assessments.

SIDS have also advocated for eligibility to development finance to recognize the vulnerabilities they face, including from climate change hazards. The UN will release its recommendations in a report due to be released in August 2021.

Links

• (AU Canberra Times) Australia Can No Longer Bluff Its Neighbours On Climate Change
• (AU) Australia Trails Pacific Nations In Fight Against Climate Change
• (NZ) Climate Change Refugees: The Landmark Case Of Teitiota V New Zealand
• (AU) 'Sacrificial Canary': Fiji Warns Australia Not To Let Pacific Sink
• (AU) Torres Strait Islander Complaint Against Climate Change Inaction Wins Backing Of UN Legal Experts
• (AU) Pacific Leaders Condemn Australia's Climate Target As 'One Of The Weakest' In Open Letter
• Preparing For When Climate Change Drives People From Their Homes
• Wildfires in Turkish tourist regions are the highest recorded
• The problems of climate change, part 1
• The Only Way to Stop Global Warming
• Floods in Europe, Turkey, China and India
• Climate change could spark floods in world’s largest desert lake
• Six things you can do to bring back mangroves
• Oil, acid, plastic: Inside the shipping disaster gripping Sri Lanka
• Reusing 10% Will Stop Almost Half of Plastic Waste From Entering the Ocean
• Pandemic and climate change: The search for new models of sustainable development

(USA NBC) Earth's Energy Imbalance Removes Almost All Doubt From Human-Made Climate Change

NBC News - Denise Chow

Researchers studying Earth's absorption of the sun's energy found a less than 1 percent probability that the recent changes occurred naturally.'

Earth's horizon seen from the International Space Station as it orbits above the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Chile, on Nov. 21. NASA

For decades, Earth’s energy system has been out of whack.

Stability in Earth's climate hinges on a delicate balance between the amount of energy the planet absorbs from the sun and the amount of energy Earth emits back into space. But that equilibrium has been thrown off in recent years — and the imbalance is growing, according to a paper published Wednesday in the journal Nature Communications.

The changes to Earth's energy system have major ramifications for the planet's future climate and humanity's understanding of climate change.

The Princeton University researchers behind the paper found that there's a less than 1 percent probability that the changes occurred naturally.

The findings undercut a key argument used by people who do not believe human activity is responsible for the bulk of climate change to explain trends in global warming, demonstrating that the planet's energy imbalance cannot be explained just by Earth's own natural variations.

The research also offers important insights into how greenhouse gas emissions and other consequences of human-caused climate change are upsetting the planet's equilibrium and driving global warming, sea-level rise and extreme weather events.

"With more and more changes to the planet, we've created this imbalance where we have surplus energy in the system," said Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, a graduate student in atmospheric and oceanic sciences at Princeton and lead author of the study. "That surplus manifests as different symptoms."

Emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases from human activities trap heat in the atmosphere, meaning the planet absorbs infrared radiation that would normally be released into space.

Melting sea ice, changing cloud cover and differences in the concentration of tiny atmospheric particles called aerosols — all of which are affected by climate change — also mean Earth is reflecting less of the sun's radiation back into the cosmos.

"There isn't this equilibrium between energy coming in from the sun and energy going out," Raghuraman said. "The question is: Are these natural planetary variations, or is it us?"

The researchers used satellite observations from 2001 to 2020 to determine that Earth's energy imbalance is growing. They then used a series of climate models to simulate the effects on Earth's energy system if human-caused climate change was taken out of the equation.

The scientists found that natural fluctuations alone could not explain the trend observed over the 20-year period.

"It was almost impossible — a less than 1 percent probability — that such a large increase in the imbalance was from Earth's own oscillations and variations," Raghuraman said.

The study focused on cause and effect, but Raghuraman said the findings have critical societal and policy implications.

Oceans store approximately 90 percent of the planet's excess heat, which causes rising seas and can trigger hurricane formation and other extreme weather events. The remaining heat is taken up by the atmosphere and land, which increases global surface temperatures and contributes to melting snow and ice.

If Earth's energy imbalance continues to grow, consequences that are already being felt today will likely be exacerbated, said Norman Loeb, a physical scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, who was not involved with the study.

"We're going to see temperatures rise, sea levels rise, more snow and ice melting," Loeb said. "Everything you see in the news — forest fires, droughts — those just get worse if you add more heat."

Loeb led a joint study by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that found Earth's energy imbalance approximately doubled from 2005 to 2019. The paper was published last month in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Loeb said the Princeton study confirms what was outlined in his own research, which used 14 years of observations from satellite sensors and an array of instruments in the ocean.

He added that human activities, or what's known as anthropogenic forcing, are undeniably having an effect but some natural variation is likely also at play. For instance, some planetary oscillations can operate on cycles that last multiple decades, which can make it tricky to tease out the fingerprints of climate change.

"Anthropogenic forcing is there for sure," he said, "but the ocean is a key player in climate and it operates on much slower time scales. Ideally, you really want to be able to have these types of measurements over 50 years or more."

Links

• NASA Just Released The First Direct Evidence That Humans Are Causing Climate Change
• Explainer: Man-Made Climate Change, Is It Real Or Fake?
• Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth’s Heating Rate
• Anthropogenic forcing and response yield observed positive trend in Earth’s energy imbalance
• (USA Salon) Humans Are Causing Mass Extinction At A Rate Not Seen Since The Last Major Extinction Event
• Climate Fight 'Is Undermined By Social Media's Toxic Reports'
• (AU) Lessons From The Past
• Humanity’s Immense Impact On Earth’s Climate And Carbon Cycle
• Big Disasters Make Headlines. But The Most Dangerous Part Of Climate Change Is That You Barely Notice It’s Happening
• Causes Of Global Warming: How Scientists Know That Humans Are Responsible
• Blue Acceleration: Our Dash For Ocean Resources Mirrors What We’ve Already Done To The Land

(AU The Guardian) Climate Crisis Cuts Australian Farm Profits By A Quarter Over Past 20 Years

The Guardian - Adam Morton | AAP

Report finds profits could fall by up to 50% within three decades if global emissions are not significantly reduced and farmers don’t adapt to changing climate

A farm in New South Wales. The new report says the impact of future declines in winter rainfall are expected to be most severe in the state’s west and central Queensland. Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images

Seasonal changes linked to the climate crisis have reduced annual average farm profits by 23% - or about $29,000 per farm - over the past 20 years, according to the federal government’s agricultural research agency.

The drop in average profitably over 2001 to 2020, compared to the period between 1950 and 2000, came as Australia’s climate warmed and winter rainfall declined in the continent’s south-west and south-east.

A new report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) found farm profits could fall by up to 50% over the next three decades if global greenhouse gas emissions were not significantly reduced and producers did not adapt to the changing climate.

Scenarios under which emissions were cut more significantly were projected to lead to smaller reductions in farming profitability.

The bureau’s executive director, Dr Jared Greenville, said the report – based on projections by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO – showed seasonal conditions over the past two decades had been “pretty rough for Australian farmers”.

“Lower average rainfall and higher average temperatures have had a negative impact on farm productivity and profit,” he said. “The good news is that farmers have made some remarkable progress in adapting to these hotter and drier conditions.”

Greenville said that after accounting for climate impacts, productivity growth in broadacre farming had increased by 28% since 1989.

“The cropping sector has seen a huge gain of 68%,” he said. “New technologies and practices mean that farmers are able to grow crops under lower rainfall conditions than they could in the past.”

The bureau report suggested Western Australian cropping farmers could face more pressure than those in eastern states under most scenarios as they were expected to face more substantial declines in winter rainfall. It said the impact on inland livestock farmers was expected to be most severe in central Queensland and parts of western New South Wales.

It said the average farm size was likely to increase as smaller farmers would face greater pressure from climate change. Greenville said investing in research, development and climate data would be crucial in preparing for what lay ahead.

He said future climate projections of the extent to which rising temperatures would reduce rainfall varied markedly – from 3% to up 30% by 2050 compared with pre-2000 levels.

One month in the global climate crisis and what it means for Australia, with Lenore Taylor – video 2min16sec

“This uncertainty over future rainfall is itself an important constraint on farmer adaptation,” he said. “While farmers have made significant progress to date, further adaptation will be required to maintain our competitiveness, particularly if other nations are not impacted to the same extent.”

The report lands amid debate within the Morrison government over how agriculture is treated under a potential 2050 net-zero emissions target. Some Nationals opposed to the target have suggested they could be swayed if farming was heavily subsidised.

While Australia continues to resist, more than 120 countries and most major business and industry lobby groups including the National Farmers Federation say they support the 2050 goal. The G7 group of major developed countries have pledged to reach net zero by 2050 at the latest and turned their attention to plans to make much deeper cuts by 2030.

The governor of the Reserve Bank, Philip Lowe, last month told the Australian Farm Institute conference that reducing emissions would be important for Australia’s agricultural sector as up to 70% of its output was exported and international investors were highly focused on decarbonisation.

“Agriculture has tremendous opportunities here, but we need to find ways to disclose to global investors and global customers the decarbonisation strategy and how successfully we are doing that,” he said.

“It is a really important issue and it’s going to become more important.”

Links

• ABARES Says Changing Climate Is Costing Every Farm, On Average, $30,000 Every Year
• ABARES: Climate change impacts and adaptation on Australian farms
• These farmers want to get their farm to net zero and think it could make them money
• $1b 'wiped off farm incomes from 20 years of climate change'
• (AU The Conversation) US Scheme Used By Australian Farmers Reveals The Dangers Of Trading Soil Carbon To Tackle Climate Change
• (AU New Daily) Australian Farmers Line Up To Demand Action On Climate Change
• (AU The Conversation) Pay Dirt: $200 Million Plan For Australia’s Degraded Soil Is A Crucial Turning Point
• (AU) Climate Change To Force Farmers To Become More Efficient
• (AU) The Five Principles Of Regenerative Farming And How To Apply Them
• (AU) A Bit Rich: Business Groups Want Urgent Climate Action, After Resisting It For 30 Years
• (AU) Climate Crisis: Business, Farming And Environment Leaders Unite To Warn Australia 'Woefully Unprepared' 
• Australian businesses ‘hungry’ to pay farmers to protect biodiversity in world-first scheme, says Littleproud
• ‘Living climate change now’: how WA farmers are trying to turn the tide

(AU ABC) ABARES Says Changing Climate Is Costing Every Farm, On Average, $30,000 Every Year

ABC Rural - Kath Sullivan

ABARES has found the risk that Australian farmers will receive a very low income has doubled since 2000. (ABC Western Queensland: Kelly Butterworth)

Key Points Farmers have been losing, on average, $29,200 per farm, every year due to changing climate conditions ABARES' latest report says growers are adapting to weather, growing more from less It predicts the average farm size could increase as farmers meet the challenges of climate change

Australian farms have lost on average almost $30,000 each a year in profits over the past 20 years due to climate change, relative to earnings in the latter part of last century, says the Australian Bureau ofAgricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

In its latest report, ABARES finds that the decline in rainfall from 2001 to 2021, compared to 1950-2000, saw farm profits reduced, on average, by 23 per cent, or $29,200, as the risk doubled of farmers receiving very low returns due to climate variability.

 But it also found that Australian farm productivity had significantly increased, with broadacre farmers producing almost 30 per cent more than they did in 1989.

ABARES' executive director Jared Greenville said the research had shown that, over the same period, despite the weather challenges, grain growers had increased productivity by 68 per cent.

"New technologies and practices mean that farmers are able to grow crops under lower rainfall conditions than they could in the past," Dr Greenville said.

What future looks like

The report has also made projections about the pressure climate change could place on Australian farmers in the next 30 years.

It says cropping farms in Western Australia would be "more heavily impacted than other regions under most climate scenarios, due largely to the more substantial projected declines in winter rainfall and the resulting effects on crop yield".

For livestock producers, ABARES forecast the impact of climate change would not be as great and more likely to be most severe on the northern edge of WA's cropping zone, parts of New South Wales and central Queensland.

"While the most severe projections show large reductions in farm profits – up to 50 per cent nationally – these results do not account for adaptation," Dr Greenville said.

The ABARES report said that, while technology was likely to drive productivity gains further, "Climate change could still reduce the international competitiveness of Australian farmers, relative to other nations, particularly if Australia's main competitors are not affected by climate change to the same extent."

Pressure on smaller farms

ABARES said that it was likely smaller farmers would face greater pressure from climate change compared to larger farms and that the average farm size could grow.

Other major changes forecast for Australian farms as result of climate change included investment in on-farm grain storage and other climate-change mitigation tools.

"This could include the emergence of new land use activities — such as carbon abatement, biodiversity conservation or renewable energy generation — as complements to traditional farming," ABARES said.

The report has been released as the federal government calls for expressions of interest for its drought-resilience innovation grants, which will be funded by the Future Drought Fund.

That fund has set aside $34 million for the latest round of grants.

Links

• Climate Crisis Cuts Australian Farm Profits By A Quarter Over Past 20 Years
• ABARES: Climate change impacts and adaptation on Australian farms
• These farmers want to get their farm to net zero and think it could make them money
• $1b 'wiped off farm incomes from 20 years of climate change'
• (AU The Conversation) US Scheme Used By Australian Farmers Reveals The Dangers Of Trading Soil Carbon To Tackle Climate Change
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(AU The Guardian) Having Spent A Decade Framing Emissions Reduction In Apocalyptic Terms, The Coalition Now Has To Present Different Facts

The Guardian -  Katharine Murphy

If Scott Morrison is inclined to execute the pivot he’s spent months telegraphing – towards net zero by 2050 – a report out this week contains some helpful fodder

The federal government led by Scott Morrison hopes to have something concrete to say at the Cop26 in Glasgow in November. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP

With 14 million people in lockdown and the news in Sydney going from bad to worse, and with Scott Morrison steadfastly avoiding an apology for moving too slowly on vaccinations until the moment the word sorry crossed his lips, all eyes were on the pandemic.

This was a week where any other interesting insights sank like a stone, so let’s clear some space for one of the lost insights.

On Tuesday, the group Beyond Zero Emissions released a report based on economic analysis from ACIL Allen.

This work found that establishing renewable energy industrial precincts in two Australian regions would create 45,000 new jobs and generate revenue of $13bn a year by 2032.

The two regions the report identified were the Hunter in New South Wales and Gladstone in central Queensland. If you follow politics closely, you’ll know these regions will be heavily contested at the next federal election.

In the world envisaged by this report, dedicated renewable energy zones would support energy intensive businesses during the transition to low emissions. I might need to repeat that sentence because the Coalition has spent more than a decade telling Australians that renewables and heavy industry are fundamentally incompatible.

In case that cacophony of mendacity has messed with your cognition, allow me to repeat: new renewable energy industrial precincts would be created to support activity like aluminium smelting, hydrogen and chemical production and manufacturing for the new energy economy.

This conversation is about re-industrialising Australia for the low emissions global economy, using the existing industrial precincts that have been domestic employers and export powerhouses for generations because these regions have skilled workers, deepwater ports, existing transport infrastructure, and access to renewable energy resources.

The report says a renewable precinct in the Hunter could unlock new capital investment of $28bn in the region, including $8.6bn for storage/firming capacity, as well as transmission lines, freight networks and renewable hydrogen infrastructure and export facilities.

There is an aluminium smelter in the Hunter, which the report notes will need 800-900 megawatts of firmed energy.

In Gladstone, which has Australia’s second largest aluminium smelter (at Boyne Island), the analysis points to new manufacturing activities attracting additional capital investment of $7.8bn to the region, including $1.7bn for key infrastructure such as storage and firming facilities.

If Morrison is inclined to execute the pivot he’s spent months telegraphing – the creep towards a net zero commitment by 2050 – this week’s report contains some helpful fodder. Forecasting the future is always a function of inputs and outputs, with a heavy overlay of uncertainty.

But drilling into the opportunities for two industrialised regions that sit on the frontline of Australia’s deranged carbon wars marks a welcome break from the weaponised hyper-partisan windbaggery about the costs of the transition.

Morrison, armed with his “preference” to achieve net zero by mid century, had already entered this territory – the territory of opportunity rather than cost – before the Barnstorm hit a month ago. But Barnaby Joyce has returned to the Nationals leadership and the first run of prognostications associated with the resurrection suggested net zero was now dead, buried and cremated.

Perhaps it is, but Morrison has not folded the tent.

Before Joyce ran down Michael McCormack, generic discussions had begun in the relevant cabinet sub-committee about the direction Morrison wanted to go. But people insist there was no specific proposal on the table, and no decisions were made at that time.

The current talk around the government is four different options are being worked up with a view to getting the Nationals on board – options informed by obvious organising questions, like what can we say on longer term targets? Is agriculture in or out? What do you do with methane?

The ambition remains having something concrete to say at the Cop26 in Glasgow in November. But before anyone gets to Glasgow, the government first has to square its own circle.

Having spent a decade framing emissions reduction in apocalyptic terms, the Coalition now has to present different facts. It has to present a transition plan where transition looks more like an opportunity than armageddon.

Senior players believe that Joyce is open to a deal on net zero (despite his daily word salad, which rollercoasters from nick-off mate to maxims and reflections on menu pricing). Lest this sound like rash optimism, history furnishes a precedent.

It’s long forgotten now, but Joyce was actually disciplined in a policy sense during the period when Malcolm Turnbull tried to get sign-off on the national energy guarantee. Turnbull’s problem during the Neg crusade, predominantly, was in the Liberal party room, not so much with the Nationals.

That’s one of the reasons Joyce felt bruised after Turnbull turned on him forcefully once the deputy prime minister’s private travails exploded in the public domain. Joyce felt he’d been a good soldier on a tough assignment.

After that conscious uncoupling, Joyce, sitting mulishly on the backbench, reverted to his meandering populism. It will be genuinely fascinating to see what he does now, with the full responsibility of Coalitionism resting once again on his shoulders.

Joyce’s party room is split. Some will support signing on to net zero at a price. Other colleagues are hard noes, and the hard noes will not be persuaded by modelling that says coal and gas workers can transition to be hydrogen producers, or wind turbine manufacturers.

If Joyce ultimately chooses deal rather than no deal, we can expect the hand grenades to come out.

Speaking of hand grenades, the Liberals are nursing some of their own. A number of metropolitan Liberals do not want to endure another uncomfortable election like they endured in 2019 when they experienced the anger of constituents sick to death of the Coalition’s decade of wrecking on climate action.

These MPs want to be able to point to tangible action, not smoke signals and fudges, and patience is not in abundance.

These are difficult times for the Coalition. The coming election was supposed to be framed by a booming economy, and underpinned by exceptionalism when it came to the management of the pandemic. But the emergence of the Delta strain has punctured a significant hole in that plan.

Government MPs say, right at the moment, it is bad on the ground – as bad as the opinion polls suggest. Voters are angry about the slow pace of the vaccination rollout, and they are also articulating doubts about Morrison.

When you talk to MPs you get the same situation report: the mob has moved, we are behind, particularly with younger voters; if the Pfizer turns up, it’s possible we can pull out of this downdraught and reap the benefits of incumbency, but it’s not clear whether there’s enough time to shift people back.

When it comes to climate and energy policy, Labor has its own difficult internal debates to land. But Anthony Albanese isn’t letting any grass grow under his feet.

Unburdened by the ceaseless requirements of governing, and thus far, one step ahead of quarantining restrictions – the Labor leader has been running a faux campaign, pinging between Tasmania and Queensland, going to pubs and cafes and worksites, trying to connect with the voters who abandoned Labor in 2019.

Labor strategists report the reception on the ground in Queensland is better than it has been for some time, and noticeably better than 2019. Albanese isn’t being peppered by questions about the future of coal in central Queensland anymore.

The culture wars of the Adani election are, of course, dangerous and ever-present – but right now, the issues don’t feel as resonant as they did even 12 months ago.

Camp Albanese knows the Coalition has a big electoral buffer in Queensland because of the significant positive swings in 2019.

People also know the positive reception sits at the point of voters working out whether Labor can be trusted rather than expressions of rapture.

But as the government grinds through a tough winter, in Camp Albanese, the current mood is bending toward optimism.

Links

• Beyond Zero Emissions
• Renewable Energy Industrial Precincts: Economic Analysis
• Repowering Australian manufacturing through renewable energy industrial precincts
• (AU The Guardian) US, European And UK Diplomats Meet To Encourage Australia To Ramp Up Climate Action
• (AU ABC) How The Carbon Tax Has Come Back To Haunt The Australian Government
• (SMH) Crunch Time Looming For Morrison On Climate As The World Looks To Australia To Act(AU The Guardian) Net Zero By 2050? Over Our Dead Body, Bolshie Nationals Tell Scott Morrison
• (AU The Guardian) Wealthy Countries’ Climate Shift Leaves Australia Isolated From Closest Allies
• (AU Canberra Times) Scott Morrison And G7+ Leaders Implored To Act On Climate Change As 'Colossal' Risk To Humanity
• (AU SMH) The Sleeper Election Issue That Could Bite Morrison And Albanese
• (AU Canberra Times) John Hewson: Reckless Morrison Government Must Move On Climate Change