(UK BBC) Climate Change: Time Running Out To Stop Catastrophe - Alok Sharma

BBC - Francesca Gillett

Former Business Secretary Alok Sharma is now leading COP26, the climate summit in Glasgow in November. PA Media

The world is "dangerously close" to running out of time to stop a climate change catastrophe, the UK government's climate chief Alok Sharma has said.

Mr Sharma - who is leading COP26, the climate summit hosted by the UK this year - said the effects were already clear with floods, fires and heatwaves.

"We can't afford to wait two years, five years, 10 years - this is the moment," he told the Observer.

But he did not condemn the government for allowing more fossil fuel projects.

And he defended his decision to travel to more than 30 countries in seven months.

Mr Sharma's interview with the Observer comes ahead of a major report being released on Monday from the United Nations' climate change researchers.

The report is set to be the strongest statement yet from the UN group on the science of climate change - and will likely give details about how the world's oceans, ice caps and land will change in the next decades.

The summary has been approved in a process involving scientists and representatives of 195 governments, which - having signed off on the findings - will be under pressure to take more action at COP26 in November.

Doug Parr, chief scientist with Greenpeace UK, said "world leaders have done a terrible job of listening" to warnings about climate change.

"This year, this has to change. We don't need more pledges, commitments and targets - we need real action right here right now."

Wildfires are currently raging in Greece, forcing thousands to evacuate their homes - and fires have also been burning in Turkey and California in the US. This summer, western Europe also saw its worst flooding in decades, which killed dozens of people.

Mr Sharma said if urgent action was not taken, the consequences would be "catastrophic".

"I don't think there's any other word for it," he said. "You're seeing on a daily basis what is happening across the world. Last year was the hottest on record, the last decade the hottest decade on record."

What is climate change? 3min 14sec

He added: "We're seeing the impacts across the world - in the UK or the terrible flooding we've seen across Europe and China, or forest fires, the record temperatures that we've seen in North America. Every day you will see a new high being recorded in one way or another across the world."

 Mr Sharma said the report released on Monday is "going to be the starkest warning yet that human behaviour is alarmingly accelerating global warming".

"I don't think we're out of time but I think we're getting dangerously close to when we might be out of time. We will see [from the IPCC] a very, very clear warning that unless we act now, we will unfortunately be out of time."

"Africa has been waiting for the rest of the world to catch up and act on climate change for years," Fredrick Njehu, Christian Aid's senior climate change and energy adviser for Africa, highlighting the "changing rainfall patterns or overbearing heat" endured by the continent in recent years.

He added: "The important thing now is that rich world governments make up for lost time and act quickly to reduce emissions and deliver promised financial support for the vulnerable."

Fossil fuel criticism

Glasgow is set to host the COP26 summit in November - which is the UN climate change conference.

The summit is seen as vital if climate change is to be brought under control, and leaders from 196 countries will meet to try and agree action.

But campaigners have accused the UK of hypocrisy, as there are plans to tap a new oil field off Shetland. The government has also said more oil and gas wells can be drilled in the North Sea, and there are plans for a new coal mine in Cumbria.

Earlier this year, the global energy watchdog the International Energy Agency said there cannot be any new investment in oil, gas or coal projects if we want to limit global warming to 1.5C. Experts say the impacts of climate change are far more severe when the increase is greater than 1.5C.

Mr Sharma refused to criticise the government's plan for the projects, saying: "Future [fossil fuel] licences are going to have to adhere to the fact we have committed to go to net zero by 2050 in legislation.

"There will be a climate check on any licences."

Climate change: How 1.5C could change the world. 2min 21sec

Mr Sharma's interview comes after he was criticised for flying abroad for meetings - and visiting more than 30 countries in seven months.

However, since then some environmental campaigners including Greenpeace have defended him, saying face-to-face meetings are important to persuade other nations to tackle climate change.

Mr Sharma told the Observer that in-person meetings were "incredibly vital and actually impactful".

"It makes a vital difference, to build those personal relationships which are going to be incredibly important as we look to build consensus," he said.

It also emerged in the Sunday Mirror that Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab did not self-isolate after returning from France, which was on the amber plus list meaning all arrivals must quarantine.

A government spokesman said it was Mr Raab's job to represent the UK abroad and he followed Covid guidelines on return.

There is an exemption for ministers to avoid quarantine when returning from abroad.

Links

• What is COP26 and what needs to be agreed?
• A really simple guide to climate change
• Climate-related words and phrases explained
• How much warmer is your city?
• What is your diet's carbon footprint?
• Where we are in seven charts

(AU The Conversation) Australians Are 3 Times More Worried About Climate Change Than COVID. A Mental Health Crisis Is Looming

The Conversation - Rhonda Garad | Joanne Enticott | Rebecca Patrick

Shutterstock

Authors Rhonda Garad is Senior Lecturer and Research Fellow in Knowledge Translation, Monash University Joanne Enticott is Senior Research Fellow, Monash Centre for Health Research and Implementation (MCHRI), Monash University Rebecca Patrick is Director, Sustainable Health Network, Deakin University

As we write this article, the Delta strain of COVID-19 is reminding the world the pandemic is far from over, with millions of Australians in lockdown and infection rates outpacing a global vaccination effort.

In the northern hemisphere, record breaking temperatures in the form of heat domes recently caused uncontrollable “firebombs”, while unprecedented floods disrupted millions of people. Hundreds of lives have been lost due to heat stress, drownings and fire.

The twin catastrophic threats of climate change and a pandemic have created an “epoch of incredulity”. It’s not surprising many Australians are struggling to cope.

During the pandemic’s first wave in 2020, we collected nationwide data from 5,483 adults across Australia on how climate change affects their mental health. In our new paper, we found that while Australians are concerned about COVID-19, they were almost three times more concerned about climate change.

That Australians are very worried about climate change is not a new finding. But our study goes further, warning of an impending epidemic of mental health related disorders such as eco-anxiety, climate disaster-related post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and future-orientated despair.

Which Australians are most worried?

We asked Australians to compare their concerns about climate change, COVID, retirement, health, ageing and employment, using a four-point scale (responses ranging from “not a problem” to “very much a problem”).

A high level of concern about climate change was reported across the whole population regardless of gender, age, or residential location (city or rural, disadvantaged or affluent areas). Women, young adults, the well-off, and those in their middle years (aged 35 to 54) showed the highest levels of concern about climate change.

The latter group (aged 35 to 54) may be particularly worried because they are, or plan to become, parents and may be concerned about the future for their children.

The high level of concern among young Australians (aged 18 to 34) is not surprising, as they’re inheriting the greatest existential crisis faced by any generation. This age group have shown their concern through numerous campaigns such as the School Strike 4 Climate, and several successful litigations.

Of the people we surveyed in more affluent groups, 78% reported a high level of worry. But climate change was still very much a problem for those outside this group (42%) when compared to COVID-related worry (27%).

Recent flooding in Germany and Belgium killed more than 200 people. Boris Roessler/dpa via AP 

We also found many of those who directly experienced a climate-related disaster — bushfires, floods, extreme heat waves — reported symptoms consistent with PTSD. This includes recurrent memories of the trauma event, feeling on guard, easily startled and nightmares.

Others reported significant pre-trauma and eco-anxiety symptoms. These include recurrent nightmares about future trauma, poor concentration, insomnia, tearfulness, despair and relationship and work difficulties.

Overall, we found the inevitability of climate threats limit Australians’ ability to feel optimistic about their future, more so than their anxieties about COVID.

How are people managing their climate worry?

Our research also provides insights into what people are doing to manage their mental health in the face of the impending threat of climate change.

Joining protests, such as the School Strike 4 Climate, helps some Australians deal with their anxiety about climate change. AAP Image/James Ross

Rather than seeking professional mental health support such as counsellors or psychologists, many Australians said they were self-prescribing their own remedies, such as being in natural environments (67%) and taking positive climate action (83%), where possible.

Many said they strengthen their resilience through individual action (such as limiting their plastic use), joining community action (such as volunteering), or joining advocacy efforts to influence policy and raise awareness.

Indeed, our research from earlier this year showed environmental volunteering has mental health benefits, such as improving connection to place and learning more about the environment.

It’s both ironic and understandable Australians want to be in natural environments to lessen their climate-related anxiety. Events such as the mega fires of 2019 and 2020 may be renewing Australians’ understanding and appreciation of nature’s value in enhancing the quality of their lives. There is now ample research showing green spaces improve psychological well-being.

Walking in nature can improve your mental well-being. Sebastian Pichler/Unsplash

An impending epidemic

Our research illuminates the profound, growing mental health burden on Australians.

As the global temperature rises and climate-related disasters escalate in frequency and severity, this mental health burden will likely worsen. More people will suffer symptoms of PTSD, eco-anxiety, and more.

Of great concern is that people are not seeking professional mental health care to cope with climate change concern. Rather, they are finding their own solutions. The lack of effective climate change policy and action from the Australian government is also likely adding to the collective despair.

As Harriet Ingle and Michael Mikulewicz — a neuropsychologist and a human geographer from the UK — wrote in their 2020 paper:

For many, the ominous reality of climate change results in feelings of powerlessness to improve the situation, leaving them with an unresolved sense of loss, helplessness, and frustration.

It is imperative public health responses addressing climate change at the individual, community, and policy levels, are put into place. Governments need to respond to the health sector’s calls for effective climate related responses, to prevent a looming mental health crisis.

Links

• Health and medical groups call for Prime Minister to scale up climate action to avoid escalating health threats
• Research: Australians report climate change as a bigger concern than COVID-19
• What Australians really think about climate action
• Exploring the co-benefits of environmental volunteering for human and planetary health promotion 
• The rise of 'eco-anxiety': climate change affects our mental health, too
• In a landmark judgment, the Federal Court found the environment minister has a duty of care to young people
• New polling shows 79% of Aussies care about climate change. So why doesn't the government listen?

(Climate News Network) Flood Risk Will Rise As Climate Heat Intensifies

Climate News Network - Tim Radford

A warmer world will be a wetter one. Ever more people will face a higher flood risk as rivers rise and city streets fill up.

July 2021: High water on the River Rhine as it flows through flooded Germany. Image: By Gerda Arendt, via Wikimedia Commons

LONDON − In a world of climate change, the flood risk will be more intense and more frequent, presenting higher danger to ever more people in a greater number of countries.

In this century alone, the global population has increased by 18%. But the number of people exposed to damage and death by rising waters has increased by more than 34%.

This finding is not based on mathematical simulations powered by weather data. It is based on direct and detailed observation.

Researchers report in the journal Nature that they looked at more than 12,700 satellite images, at a resolution of 250 metres, of 913 large flood events between the years 2000 and 2015.

During those years, and those floods, water spilled from the rivers to inundate a total of 2.23 million square kilometres.

This, considered as one event, would cover a total area larger than Saudi Arabia.

And during those first 15 years of the century, the number of people directly affected by the floods was at least 255m, and possibly 290m.

“Governments across the world have been too slow in reducing greenhouse gas emissions . . . This, alongside the current floods in Europe, is the wake-up call we need”

In those 15 years, the numbers of people in the way of the ever more devastating floods rose by at least 58m, and possibly as many as 86m. That’s a rise of as much as 24%.

It will get worse. According to the researchers, climate change and the multiplication of human numbers will extend the reach of flood risk: 32 nations already experience ever more flooding. By 2030, another 25 countries will have joined them.

The humans caught up in the sickening flow of mud, sewage and silt spilling from the rising rivers will mostly be in south and south-east Asia − think of the Indus, Ganges-Brahmaputra and Mekong Rivers − and many of them will have migrated to the danger zones: poverty and population pressure will leave them no choice.

None of this should come as a surprise.

In the past 50 years, according to a new compilation by the World Meteorological Organisation, weather, climate and water were implicated in 50% of all disasters of any kind; in 45% of all reported deaths and 74% of all economic losses.

Floods have claimed 58,700 lives in the last five decades.

Between them, floods and storms − the two are often linked − cost Europe at least US$377bn in economic losses.

Higher flooding frequency

And things will certainly get much worse for Europe as global average temperatures continue to rise in response to ever higher greenhouse gas emissions from ever greater use of fossil fuels. That is because what had once been relatively rare events will grow in force and frequency.

More heat means more evaporation, and a warmer atmosphere has a greater capacity to absorb water vapour. So it will rain harder.

And the arrival, say researchers in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, of intense, slow-moving storms that precipitate devastating flash floods of the kind that swept Belgium and Germany this summer will by the close of the century become 14 times more frequent.

“Governments across the world have been too slow in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and global warming continues apace,” said Hayley Fowler, a climate scientist at Newcastle University in the UK, and one of the researchers.

“This study suggests that changes to extreme storms will be significant and cause an increase in the frequency of devastating flooding across Europe. This, alongside the current floods in Europe, is the wake-up call we need.” 

Links

• Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods
• Water-related hazards dominate disasters in the past 50 years
• Climate change to bring more intense storms across Europe
• Quasi-Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change
• Death toll exceeds 180 as Germany and Belgium hit by devastating floods
• Record-smashing heat extremes may become much more likely with climate change -study
• Pacific Northwest heat wave 'virtually impossible' without climate change -research
• As floods hit western Europe, scientists say climate change hikes heavy rain

(AU SMH) Global Warming Pushing Emperor Penguins To Brink Of Extinction By 2100

Sydney Morning Herald - Miki Perkins

The US is now considering listing the emperor penguin as endangered because of climate change. A picture of the Emperor penguin colony in Antarctica’s Atka Bay. Credit: Stefan Christmann

It was aboard the gutsy Russian icebreaker Kapitan Khlebnikov, sailing between the Antarctic peninsula and Ross Sea, that the passengers discovered a new emperor penguin colony in the old-fashioned way: with their eyes.

Mary-Anne Lea, who was then a guide aboard the vessel and is now a professor in marine ecology at the University of Tasmania, has that moment 15 years ago etched in her memory.

With a colleague, Professor Lea managed one quick flight to the colony aboard an ageing Russian helicopter and they waded through thigh-deep snow to take this photo.

A picture of the Siple Island emperor colony discovered by passengers aboard the Kapitan Khlebnikov. Credit: Lisa Trotter

“It took my breath away. It was a real voyage of discovery for everyone on board to see them in on the ice,” says Professor Lea. “They are such beautiful birds that live in some of the harshest conditions on earth, breeding in the middle of the Antarctic winter. I was just in awe.”

But climate change is threatening emperor penguins with extinction in much of their range, and this week federal wildlife officials in the United States announced a proposal to protect them under the Endangered Species Act.

Professor Lea was aboard the Kapitan Khlebnikov when it discovered a new colony of emperor penguins.

The Antarctic scientific community has been raising the alarm on global warming and climate change for around 40 years, Professor Lea says. She finds it shocking that scientists were discovering new emperor colonies until only a few years ago, and now are charting their demise as a result of the climate emergency: “It’s so devastating that’s the situation we’re now in.”

Emperor penguins live for most of the year on sea ice - which is essentially frozen ocean - and need it to breed, raise their young in the dark Antarctic winters and escape from predators like orca and sea leopards.

Scientists like Professor Mary-Anne Lea, (shown here with gentoo penguins), say it’s still possible to prevent emperor penguins becoming functionally extinct within 100 years.

But this vast sea ice is disappearing or breaking apart because the human use of fossil fuels has caused global temperatures to rise.

Population modelling by a United States study led by Dr Stephanie Jenouvrier forecasts that emperor penguins will become “quasi-extinct” by 2100 if sea ice declines at the projected rate. The report was published this week in Global Change Biology.

Sea ice is breaking apart and melting because of human-induced climate change. Credit: Mary-Anne Lea

The study was led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and authored by 14 international scientists, including Australian scientist Barbara Wienecke, an emperor penguin expert with the Australian Antarctic Division.

“If global warming alters the patterns of ice break-out or stability, the ice may disappear before the chicks are ready to go to sea,” says Dr Wienecke. “Sea ice is also critical for prey species of emperor penguins such as krill.”

But the report’s authors also stressed that emperor penguin (affectionately known as “emps” amongst Antarctic scientists) extinction is not inevitable. If action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris climate agreement, enough sea ice will be left to support a reduced population of emperor penguins, they found.

“We need to act now, before it’s too late,” said Stephanie Jenouvrier, the study’s lead author and a seabird ecologist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

The tallest of all penguins, emperors stand almost 1.2 metres. After laying a single egg, females go off to hunt, and males nurture the egg through sub-zero temperatures by holding it on their feet and covering it in a feathered pouch.

Climate policy

Warming sparks penguin breeding boom but experts sound note of caution

Professor Lea said an endangered listing would enable national programs in Antarctica to prioritise research and conservation of the species more generally.

And she remains an optimist: “This is the first step. I really hope we can galvanise to save this iconic species.”

Of the 60 known emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica, 22 are located within Australia’s areas of operation in East Antarctica.

“This is the first step. I really hope we can galvanise to save this iconic species.”
Professor Mary-Anne Lea

Australia is currently involved in an international process to review the conservation status of emperor penguins in Antarctica and mechanisms for their protection.

Global warming

What will happen to our cities (and beaches) at 3 degrees of warming?

In 2016, the Antarctic’s second-largest colony lost more than 10,000 chicks in an area that had been thought safe.

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s Red List of Threatened Species currently categorises emperor penguinsF as “near threatened” with a decreasing population.

On Monday evening the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change will publish its sixth assessment on the state of the climate and is expected to reveal more bad news on the extent global warming since the last major assessment in 2014.

Links

• Virtually all emperor penguin colonies doomed for extinction by 2100 as climate change looms, study finds
• Climate Change Could Devastate Emperor Penguins, U.S. Officials Warn
• 98% of emperor penguin colonies could be extinct by 2100 as ice melts – can Endangered Species Act protection save them?
• Almost all emperor penguins will die if no changes made to greenhouse gas emissions, study warns
• Emperor penguins may be listed as threatened under Endangered Species Act due to climate change's impact
• Climate Change Poised to Push Emperor Penguins to the Brink of Extinction
• Climate change risk to emperor penguins

(AU The Conversation) Monday’s IPCC Report Is A Really Big Deal For Climate Change. So What Is It? And Why Should We Trust It?

The Conversation - David Karoly

Chinatopix via AP

Author David Karoly is a Chief Research Scientist in the CSIRO Climate Science Centre and an honorary Professor at the University of Melbourne. From 2018 until June 2021, he was Leader of the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub in the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program, based in CSIRO. He is an internationally recognised expert on climate change and climate variability and a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science.

On Monday, an extremely important report on the physical science of climate change will be released to the world.

Produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the report will give world leaders the most up-to-date information about climate change to inform their policies.

It is an enormous undertaking, and has been a long time coming.

This report is the culmination of a marathon five-year assessment, writing, review and approval process from 234 leading scientists hailing from more than 60 countries.

These scientists have worked together to rigorously evaluate the world’s climate change research papers — more than 14,000 of them.

I’ve been involved with the IPCC reports in multiple roles since 1997. For this current report, I was a review editor for one of the chapters.

This IPCC assessment report is the sixth overall, and the first since 2013. A lot has changed since then, from major governments setting ambitious climate targets, to the devastating floods, fires and heatwaves across the world.

So what is the IPCC is and why does this report matter so much? And given the report is commissioned and approved by national governments, should we trust it?

What is the IPCC? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was first established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization. Their aim was to provide policymakers with regular and comprehensive scientific assessments on climate change, at a time when climate change was becoming a more mainstream concern around the world.

These reports assess the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. They’re required to be policy-relevant yet policy-neutral. They contain findings, and state the confidence with which the finding is made, but do not recommend action.

This report is the sixth since the IPCC was established in 1988. Shutterstock

The first assessment was completed in 1990, and found 

emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the concentrations of […] carbon dioxide [and other greenhouse gases]. These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth’s surface.

Since then, new assessment cycles have been completed every five to seven years.

The overall assessment — the Sixth Assessment Report — is divided into three main parts. Monday’s report is the first part on the physical science basis for climate change, and was delayed by almost a year due to COVID restrictions.

The next two parts will be released in 2022. One will cover the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of, for example, people, ecosystems, agriculture, cities, and more. The other will cover the economics and mitigation of climate change.

The Sixth Assessment Report will culminate in a synthesis report, combining the first three parts, in September 2022.

What will we learn? The report will provide the most updated and comprehensive understanding of the climate system and climate change, both now and into the future. For that reason, it’s relevant to everyone: individuals, communities, businesses and all levels of government.

It will tell us how fast carbon dioxide emissions have been rising, and where they’re coming from. It’ll also tell us how global temperatures and rainfall patterns have changed, and how they are expected to change this century, with associated confidence levels.

Compared to the previous report in 2013, this report puts greater emphasis on regional climate change, on changes in extreme events, and how these events are linked to human-caused climate change.

Devastating fires in California, US, have levelled multiple historic buildings and homes. AP Photo/Noah Berger 

This greater emphasis on extreme events at regional scales makes it even more important to policy makers and the public.

In recent months the world has watched in horror as heatwaves, bushfires and floods toppled homes and buildings, killing hundreds across China, Europe and North America.

The report will help put disasters like these in the context of climate change, noting that similar events are expected to be more frequent and severe in a warming world.

The report also examines the effects of different levels of global warming, such as 1.5℃ and 2℃. It also looks at when such warming is likely to be reached.

Why should I trust it?

The scope of each IPCC report is prepared by scientists and approved by representatives of all governments. The 234 scientists who wrote the report are selected based on their expertise, and represent as many countries as possible.

The reports go through multiple stages of drafting and review. The first draft of the current report had more than 23,000 review comments from experts. Each comment received an individual response.

The second draft had more than 50,000 review comments from experts and governments, and these guided the preparation of the final draft.

#IPCC’s next #ClimateReport is due to be released on 9 August. The Working Group I report was prepared by a diverse team of 234 authors from all over the world.

🖊️ 234 authors
🗺️ 66 countries
📚 31% new to the IPCC

➡️ https://t.co/qPv5EUTxOx pic.twitter.com/e5FPlQBO7M

— IPCC (@IPCC_CH) August 5, 2021

You may be thinking that the IPCC reports should not be trusted because they involve government inputs and approval. However, this is probably one of their strengths. Involving government representatives ensures the reports are relevant to the policy interests of all governments.

Indeed, the multi-stage review and revision process used for the IPCC reports has been used as a model for international assessments of other scientific topics.

Can I read it? The report will be released and free to read at 6pm Australian Eastern Standard time (10am Paris time) on Monday. But each chapter in the final report will be more than 100 pages long in a small font, so few people will read it all.

The most accessible part of the report is its Summary for Policymakers, aimed at a general readership and drafted by the expert authors.

The approval meeting for this report has been taking place over the last two weeks in Paris, as a video conference meeting of government representatives. The meeting approves each chapter, but most time is spent considering and approving the Summary for Policymakers.

Every line in this summary is considered separately, comments from government representatives are considered, and changes must be approved by consensus of all governments. Sometimes reaching consensus can take a long time.

It’s clear the IPCC brings the best of global science together. It’s vital that governments keep the findings of this report front of mind in their decision-making, if the world is to avoid the worst-case climate scenarios.

Links

• Climate explained: how the IPCC reaches scientific consensus on climate change
• 5 things to watch for in the latest IPCC report on climate science
• Top climate scientist: I put myself through hell as an IPCC convening lead author, but it was worth it
• History of the IPCC
• IPCC Sixth Assessment Report is underway
• IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

(Phys.org) Global Economic Policies Driving Toward A Climate Crisis

Phys.org - Autonomous University of Barcelona

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

International research into global climate models involving the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB) shows that current worldwide economic policies are in danger of leading nations away from emission and global warming targets.

The study, carried out by leading international academics and published in Nature Energy, shows that existing growth-driven economic scenarios rely heavily on increased energy use in the future, and the use of carbon capture and storage technologies which are as-yet untested on a commercial scale.

The article calls instead for diversification in these existing models and highlights the need to consider alternative post-growth scenarios in order to meet climate and emissions obligations set by the Paris Agreement.

Growth-driven economic scenarios assume that nations must continue to raise their gross domestic product (GDP) by increasing the production of goods and services in order to progress economically and socially.

Subsequently this creates an increase in the demand for energy and an inevitable rise in carbon emissions.

Authors state that these increases will need to be offset if the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels, is to be achieved.

Existing scenarios of climate mitigation rely on unproven technologies and improved efficiency of our economies, but do not consider the need for societal and economic transformations. "Take for example the question of negative emissions.

Most scenarios assume it is perfectly feasible to transform the land of the size of India into a bioenergy plantation yet find it impossible to assume that rich countries could at some point stop growing their economies, even though growth is proven to be a major driver of environmental impacts," says Giorgos Kallis, ICTA-UAB researcher and co-author of the study.

Other strategies—such as direct air carbon capture and storage—consume massive amounts of electricity, creating difficulties in decarbonising energy supply.

New research shows that alternative scenarios need to be considered in order to deliver on existing targets.

There is now a growing call for high-income nations to pursue post-growth economic models instead, which take away the focus on increasing GDP and look to prioritize human needs and an improved standard of living.

Researchers explain that post-growth policies maintain a stable economy and support the social and societal needs of the population without economic growth. As an example, Spain outperforms the U.S. in certain key social indicators such as life expectancy despite having 55% less GDP per capita.

They insist on the need for policy interventions in areas such as transportation, industry, agriculture, construction and city planning.

"These include extending product warranties, rights to repair, minimizing food waste, reducing reliance on industrial farming methods, promoting maintenance over new construction, and improving the energy efficiency of existing buildings," says Jason Hickel, researcher at the London School of Economics, who will join the ICTA-UAB next academic year.

"In the article, we propose an alternative approach to avoiding dangerous climate change which does not depend on the success of dystopian 'technofixes'", explains Aljoša Slameršak, researcher at the ICTA-UAB.

He adds that "post-growth calls for rich countries to move away from economic growth and focus instead on provisioning for human needs and well-being, such as by reducing inequality, ensuring living wages, shortening the working week to maintain full employment, and guaranteeing universal access to public healthcare, education, transportation, energy, water and affordable housing."

Researchers consider that their findings are relevant for the ongoing debate on Spain's fair contribution in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreements.

"Support for the plans of El Prat airport expansion, the bid for hosting the 2030 Winter Olympics in Barcelona-Pyrenees, and hostile reactions to the appeal of the Spanish Minister of Consumption to reduce the consumption of meat reveal the dangerous degree of denial and mismanagement of the climate emergency by the Catalan and Spanish authorities," states Slameršak.

Researchers also point out that the ongoing forest fires in Catalonia are just one aspect of the climate emergency that is about to get much worse unless we face the uncomfortable reality that we must fundamentally transform our economy, our energy system and our lifestyles, to avoid dangerous climate change.

Links

• Smart transfer rules can strengthen EU climate policy
• No breakthrough during 'exhausting' online climate talks
• Study examining biodiversity loss calls for urgent global economy 'rethink'
• (Forbes) Climate Change Could Batter World’s Wealthiest Economies Twice As Badly As Covid, Oxfam Says
• (United Nations) Green Transformation Will Rival Industrial Revolution: US Climate Envoy
• (AU) Crooked Consulting: EY And Deloitte Spruik Climate On One Hand, The Explosion In New Coal Projects On The Other
• (UK) ‘We Are Seeing A Crisis In Values’ – An Exclusive Extract From Mark Carney’s Book
• Preparing For When Climate Change Drives People From Their Homes

(The Guardian) Wildfires Burn Out Of Control In Greece And Turkey As Thousands Flee

The Guardian - Associated Press

Protracted heatwave continues as flames threaten populated areas, electricity installations and historic sites

Kourkouli village during the night amid the wildfires, in Evia, Greece, on 5 August 2021.

Thousands of people have fled wildfires that are burning out of control in Greece and Turkey, including a large blaze just north of Athens that left one person dead, as a protracted heatwave turned forests into tinderboxes and flames threatened populated areas, electricity installations and historical sites.

Turkey’s wildfires, described as the worst in decades, have swept through swathes of the southern coast for the past 10 days, killing eight people.

In Greece, firefighters were battling 56 active wildfires on Friday, Civil Protection chief Nikos Hardalias said.

Multiple evacuation orders were issued for inhabited areas of the mainland and the nearby island of Evia, while the fire near Athens burned forests and houses in its path heading toward Lake Marathon, the capital’s main water reservoir.

“We continue our effort hour by hour to tackle the multiple fires we face today,” Hardalias said. “Conditions are exceptionally dangerous.” The wind picked up on Friday afternoon in many parts of Greece, increasing the risk of fires.

Athens’s main trauma hospital said a 38-year-old man had died after sustaining a head injury from a falling utility pole in Ippokrateios Politeia, one of the neighbourhoods north of Athens affected by the fire.


Greek prime minister says 'worst is yet to come' as wildfires rage around Athens – video 1min 34sec

On Evia, the coastguard mounted a major operation to evacuate hundreds of people by sea, using patrol vessels, fishing and tourist boats and private vessels to rescue residents and holidaymakers overnight and into Friday.

Dozens of other villages and neighbourhoods were emptied in the southern Peloponnese region and just north of the Greek capital as blazes raced through pine forests.

“We’re talking about the apocalypse, I don’t know how [else] to describe it,” Sotiris Danikas, head of the coastguard in the town of Aidipsos on Evia, told state broadcaster ERT, describing the sea evacuation.

The coastguard said 668 people had been evacuated from beaches in north-east Evia by early Friday afternoon after flames cut off all other means of escape. Coastguard vessels continued to patrol the coastline.

A coastguard vessel was also rescuing another 10 people trapped on a beach by another fire near the town of Gythio in the southern Peloponnese region.

Greek and European officials have blamed the climate crisis for the multiple fires burning through swaths of southern Europe, from southern Italy to the Balkans, Greece and Turkey.

Massive fires have been burning across Siberia in the north of Russia for weeks, while hot, bone-dry, gusty weather has also fuelled devastating wildfires in California, destroying whole towns in some cases.

Eight dead as wildfires continue to rage across southern Europe.  Read more

Greece has been baked by its most protracted heatwave in three decades, with temperatures soaring to 45C (113F).

Thousands have fled homes and holiday accommodation, while at least 20 people, including four firefighters, have been treated for injuries.

Two of the firefighters were in intensive care in Athens, while another two were in hospital with light burns, the health ministry said.

More than 1,000 firefighters and nearly 20 aircraft are battling huge fires across Greece, while extra firefighters, planes, helicopters and vehicles were arriving from France, Switzerland, Romania, Cyprus, Croatia, Israel and Sweden.

In Turkey, authorities on Friday evacuated six more neighbourhoods near the Mugla province town of Milas as a wildfire fanned by winds burned 3 miles (5km) away from a power plant. At least 36,000 people were evacuated to safety in Mugla province alone, officials said.

Meanwhile, several excavators cleared strips of land to form firebreaks in a bid to stop flames from reaching the Yenikoy power plant, the second such facility to be threatened by wildfires in the region.

Wildfires near the tourism resort of Marmaris, also in Mugla province, were largely contained by late Thursday, officials said, while by Friday afternoon, the two main fires in neighbouring Antalya province were brought under control and cooling efforts were under way, agriculture and forestry minister Bekir Pakdemirli tweeted.

In Greece, firefighters went door-to-door in areas about 12.5 miles north of Athens telling people to evacuate, while helicopters dropped water on towering flames and thick smoke blanketed the area.

Authorities sent push alerts to mobile phones in the area urging residents to leave, while a refugee camp on the outskirts of the capital was evacuated overnight. Constant flare-ups that threatened inhabited areas hampered the work of hundreds of firefighters there.

The fire halted traffic on the country’s main highway connecting Athens to northern Greece and damaged electricity installations. The power distribution company announced rolling cuts in the wider capital region to protect the electrical grid.

In the Drosopigi area, resident Giorgos Hatzispiros surveyed the damage to his house on Friday morning, the first time he was seeing it after being ordered to evacuate the previous afternoon.

Only the charred walls of the single-storey home remained, along with his children’s bicycles, somehow unscathed in a storeroom. Inside, smoke rose from a still-smouldering bookcase.

“Nothing is left,” Hatzispiros said. He urged his mother to leave, to spare her the sight of their destroyed home.

In southern Greece, dozens of villages and settlements were evacuated, where a blaze was stopped before reaching monuments at Olympia, birthplace of the ancient Olympic Games.

The fires also disrupted Covid-19 vaccinations. The health ministry announced the suspension of vaccinations at centres in fire-affected areas, saying appointments could be rescheduled when conditions allowed.

In a televised address on Thursday night, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the prime minister, said: “Our priority is always the protection of human life, followed by the protection of property, the natural environment and critical infrastructure. Unfortunately, under these circumstances, achieving all these aims at the same time is simply impossible.”

He said the wildfires displayed the reality of the climate crisis.

In 2018, more than 100 people died when a fast-moving forest fire engulfed a seaside settlement east of Athens. Some of them drowned trying to escape by sea from the smoke and flames after becoming trapped on a beach. 

Links

• Thousands in Greece and Turkey flee wildfires that display the "reality of climate change"
• Europe fries in a heat wave made ‘more intense by climate change’
• UN report says Mediterranean ‘climate change hotspot’ will see temps 20% higher than global average
• Ground Temperatures Reach a Blistering 53 Degrees Celsius in Turkey
• Two killed as wildfires threaten Athens and spread across Greece, Turkey and Italy amid extreme weather
• Europe is burning: Four explanations
• Firefighters Battle Major Blazes In Russia, Southeastern Europe, Turkey