13/03/2025

Explained: The renewables boom within our reach - Prof. Ross Garnau

Info360

Whether Australia is able to achieve net zero by 2050 will depend on our political choices and the decisions of Australian governments in the next few years. Illustration: 360info
Ross Garnaut AC
Ross Garnaut is an economist whose career has been built around the analysis of and practice of policy connected to development, economic policy and international relations in Australia, Asia and the Pacific. He has held senior roles in universities, business, government and other Australian and international institutions.
Ross Garnaut is:
  • Professor Emeritus within the University of Melbourne in Business and Economics
  • Fellow of the Australian Academy of Sciences
  • Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia
  • Distinguished Life Member of the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society
  • Honorary Professor of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
  • Doctor of Letters, honoris causa, Australian National University
  • Doctor of Science in Economics, honoris causa, University of Sydney
Ross Garnaut is the author or editor (alone or jointly with others) of 48 books in addition to numerous influential articles in scholarly journals and books on international economics, public finance, and economic development.
Donald Trump might be a speed hump on the road to net zero, but the business and climate case for renewables leaves Australia in the box seat to capitalise.

The start of a second Trump US presidency has led many to question the future outlook for energy in Australia and around the world, and what impact the new US administration will have on the move towards net zero.

Economist Ross Garnau, professor emeritus at both the Australian National University and the University of Melbourne, spoke to Info 360 about where things stand.

Q: Last November, you seemed to think there were real prospects for renewables in the world and the move towards net zero. You thought that the political and international settings for the environment were favourable. What’s your feeling today?

A: I certainly thought there were prospects of moving forward. A number of aspects of the international settings were favourable.

China is not only the world’s main producer of capital goods for the new economy, but also by far the world’s biggest user of renewables. 

Last year China produced more renewable energy than the rest of the world combined. Europe and other economies of North-East Asia are also making good progress.

And that creates a huge opportunity for Australia to use some of our renewable energy resources to support new industries exporting goods, especially to Europe and North-East Asia — countries that can’t generate the renewable energy to do it themselves.

The election of Trump doesn’t change the physics [of climate change] one bit. Atmospheric physics doesn’t care who wins American elections or what commentators are saying on Fox News.

Climate change is getting more severe and that will require a response, even though that may be an ignorant response. If it turns out to be an ignorant response, that would undermine our social and political order.

But it may also engender a positive response. I certainly think [Trump’s election] will have a negative effect on the US’s interaction with the international community. It may not have such a big negative effect in the United States, because Trump may not find it easy to repeal all the Biden measures.

Q: One of the first executive orders Trump signed was to withdraw from the Paris Agreement again. How do you see the impact of that decision on the rest of the world?

A: That’s up to the rest of the world. It will be influential. But, the rest of the world can choose to resist that influence. 

If the rest of the world bows to the influence, that could seriously affect commitments towards net zero in major economies generating a large amount of greenhouse gases, such as China, Japan, Korea, the European countries, and India. That would certainly have a big negative effect on international development towards net zero.

But it’s not certain that will be the case. China sees a geopolitical opportunity in America’s withdrawal from Paris. It’s already actively promoting its own decarbonisation. China is a huge ship to turn around, but it’s turning around. And it has momentum now in moving its industries towards a zero-carbon economy.

It will use its industrial strength to enhance cooperation with other countries wanting to move to net zero. And the speed of that move depends on their domestic politics and whether governments of the centre right or centre left, remain in power in the big European countries, such as Germany, France, and the UK. If they do, there is every prospect of the Paris commitments surviving, despite the change in US.

But if the US developments become instrumental in changing political direction in the rest of the world, then that will have a big negative effect on the world’s action on climate change.

Q: For big carbon-emitting businesses will that mean they can do whatever they want in terms of gas and oil exploration in the US? Do you expect that to follow in the rest of the world as well?

A: We still have a lot of business commitments to taking action on climate [change]. But for some businesses those commitments are only skin deep, dollar deep, and we’ve already seen some reversals in the rest of the world. 

Macquarie Bank, for example, headquartered in Australia has retreated on Paris commitments. Many companies around the world will use the US changes to pull back on those commitments.

We can’t rely on voluntary action by business to deliver good outcomes. You need policy and incentives because most businesses will only do what is profitable. Nevertheless, there are opportunities for businesses that are prepared to stay the course on climate commitments and they will be in a strong position when America comes back to the Paris agreements, as it may.

Q: What about business decisions in Australia, particularly for gas and oil exploration?

A: The mood has certainly moved. The barriers to Australia increasing its emissions and not meeting emissions targets has been weakened. However, both the government and opposition remain committed to net zero.

If we in Australia allow too much gas development, it will become impossible for us to achieve net zero by 2050. The outcome depends on our own political choices and the decisions that Australian governments make over the next few years, at a time that Trump is signalling that he has little to no interest in renewables.

Q: How do you see the opportunities for renewable development in Australia? I’m thinking particularly of opportunities for rural Australia.

A: Renewable energy is the cheapest form of energy. There’s lots of smokescreens around that but serious people in business know that you wouldn’t invest now in a coal-based power station because it would not be as cheap as investing in the best renewables backed by storage.

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12/03/2025

Has climate change supercharged Cyclone Alfred?

The Guardian -

Cyclone Alfred formed in the Coral Sea towards the end of February when sea surface temperatures were almost 1C hotter than usual
The surf at Snapper Rocks on the Gold Coast. Sea levels worldwide have risen by 20cm due to climate change, ‘which can make damages worse when storms like Cyclone Alfred hit’, an expert says. Photograph: Jason O’Br

Tropical Cyclone Alfred hit south-east Queensland on Saturday, bringing destructive winds, extreme flooding and storm surges to millions of people around Brisbane, the Gold Coast and northern New South Wales.

After last year was recorded as the hottest on record around the world, and the hottest for Australia’s oceans, what role could the climate crisis be playing in Tropical Cyclone Alfred and its impacts?

Like all weather systems on the planet, tropical cyclones are forming in a world that is heating rapidly, mostly because of the burning of fossil fuels.

The planet – and the world’s oceans – are retaining more of the sun’s energy because of the extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

But tropical cyclones are complex. They need ocean temperatures of at least 26.5C and the right setup of atmospheric conditions to form. In particular, they need low wind shear – that is, very little change in the wind, no matter how high they are blowing.

Studies have found that global heating is expanding the tropical belt – the region where cyclones can form – and other scientists have found that, on average, the point at which cyclones achieve their maximum intensity has been shifting towards the poles.

Dr Savin Chand is an expert on tropical cyclones and climate change in the Australian region. “Climate change isn’t causing tropical cyclones to form because they have been forming for millennia, but the environment in which they’re forming is becoming more hostile [to their formation],” the associate professor at Federation University said.

“But when they do form, we know that sea surface temperatures that are their source of energy are much warmer now than they used to be.”

Chand has led research that has argued the number of tropical cyclones has fallen by 13% in the 20th century. This was in line with expectations from climate scientists that global heating could actually reduce the total number of cyclones that form – but, of those, there will be a shift to higher intensity systems.

“These sea surface temperatures and warming in the atmosphere provide fuel to the systems so, when they do form, they have more energy to feed on and this tends to make them more intense than they used to be,” Chand said.

How could climate change have affected Cyclone Alfred?

Cyclone Alfred formed in the Coral Sea towards the end of February when sea surface temperatures were almost 1C hotter than usual.

The same area of low pressure and rising air known as a monsoon trough that birthed Cyclone Alfred actually spawned two other cyclones, Rae and Seru, which moved east, while Alfred took a path south-east and off the Queensland coastline.

This year was the Coral Sea’s warmest summer on record.

A chart showing the rise in temperatures in the summer in the Coral Sea since 1910. Illustration: BoM/Bureau of Meteorology

Data from the Bureau of Meteorology shows ocean temperatures off Brisbane and to the south have been between 0.5C and 1C hotter than normal in recent days.

On Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred was far enough south to come into contact with a weather system common at lower latitudes – an area of high pressure – that grabbed Tropical Cyclone Alfred and pushed it west towards the south-east Queensland coastline.

On Wednesday, Cyclone Alfred was moving through this area as it approached the coast. It was expected to cross on Saturday morning as a category one system.

What is climate change doing to the impacts from cyclones?

There are three main impacts that scientists and authorities are concerned about from Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s move to the Queensland coast: damage from extreme winds, flooding from intense rain, and damage at the coast from storm surge and damaging waves.

A warmer atmosphere can hold more water that can fall as rain and, generally, the atmosphere can hold 7% more moisture for each 1C of warming. But rainfall intensities can be greater than this because, as raindrops form, they also release energy into a system.

Dr Andrew Dowdy, an associate professor and expert on tropical cyclones at the University of Melbourne, and his colleagues have advised that for Australia, infrastructure or building planners should consider that each degree of warming could increase rainfall by as much as 15%.

Dowdy points to several characteristics from climate change that can make the impacts from Cyclone Alfred worse. “Climate change has heated the oceans so the dice [are] loaded for a greater chance of hot water around Australia, like what we saw this summer,” he said.

“These hot ocean temperatures can help supercharge tropical cyclones with more extreme rainfall and flood risks.”

When ocean heat up from climate change, they expand, pushing up sea levels. The melting of ice attached to land like ice sheets and glaciers also raises sea levels.

Dowdy said sea levels around the globe had already risen by 20cm due to climate change, “which can make damages worse when storms like Cyclone Alfred hit”.

“This includes more severe flood risks in tidal waterways like around the Gold Coast and the Brisbane River, as well as more severe coastal erosion.”

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10/03/2025

Women and girls are on the frontline of climate change – but their stories are seldom heard

Jacob Lund/Shutterstock

The Conversation -

AUTHOR
PhD Candidate in Journalism
City St George's
University of London
Women and girls are disproportionately affected by the climate crisis.

They are more likely to suffer health consequences as a result of floods, droughts, heatwaves, air pollution, wildfires and other environmental disasters.

At the same time, women also tend to be responsible for securing food, water and energy for the rest of their families. When extreme weather makes these resources scarce, their lives and livelihoods are at risk.

Despite all of this, women are alarmingly underrepresented in climate change and environmental reporting. 

A global analysis by the non-profit Media Diversity Institute found that only one in four sources quoted in online news stories about climate change, published between 2017 and 2021, were women. 

That means the stories being told about climate change are mostly through the eyes and experiences of men.

I study how the media covers environmental issues in authoritarian countries like Iran and throughout the Middle East and North Africa, one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, which faces extreme heat, water shortages and sand and dust storms.

As part of research for my recently completed PhD, I have found that women are rarely quoted as sources in news about climate change and environmental degradation, and those that do speak up are often threatened.

Not enough women ‘on record’

Finding sources in authoritarian countries is already difficult, but finding women who are willing to share their testimonies with journalists is even harder.

In Iran, environmental issues are highly politicised. Discussing water shortages or air pollution can be interpreted as criticism of the government. Anyone speaking to a journalist can expect intimidation, arrest or even death. Naturally, many sources hesitate to talk. But for women, the barriers are even greater.

In 2024, I reported on a heatwave in Iran where temperatures exceeded 50°C in some provinces. Through “off-the-record” conversations, I learned that the extreme heat was causing women to suffer heatstroke, menstrual problems, even miscarriages.

Yet, when I analysed the media coverage, there was little mention of this. Most articles focused on how the government had to shut down schools and offices.

I reached out to women in different parts of Iran, including mothers, students and medical professionals. Some spoke to me anonymously, but even women in leadership positions within the government or environment sector wouldn’t talk for fear of a reaction from the state intelligence apparatus.

This is a pattern I’ve seen throughout my research and reporting. If women cannot safely speak out, their struggles remain invisible.

Women are leading, but where’s the coverage?

Here’s the irony: while women are missing from climate reporting, they are in fact leading many environmental efforts. Evidence suggests that women are more likely than men to volunteer for environmental causes or act in an environmentally friendly way, for example. Countries with more women in political leadership tend to have stronger climate policies.

Though, there is some imbalance in media coverage of women too. 

For example, Swedish activist Greta Thunberg has been recognised in media consumed mostly in wealthier countries in Europe, North America and Australasia (what is often called the global north). But in Asia, Africa and Latin America (often called the global south) where climate change is hitting hardest, I have found women leading environmental movements rarely get the same level of attention.

This is despite the fact there are numerous women environmental leaders in this part of the world. 

In Iran, wildlife and conservation activists Niloufar Bayani and Sepideh Kashani were imprisoned and tortured for over six years after being falsely accused of espionage by the intelligence arm of the Islamic revolutionary guard corps.

Their work was dedicated to protecting Iran’s environment, particularly the critically endangered Asiatic cheetah, highlighting the risks faced by those advocating for conservation under repressive regimes. 

Bayani wrote a manifesto about the climate crisis and educated women in Tehran’s notorious Evin prison in 2023, when she was still serving a decade-long sentence. 

Wrongfully imprisoned conservation scientist Niloufar Bayani courageously spoke out against the torture she has endured in #Iran state custody: https://t.co/bs8izkXzzt. #EarthDay #FreeNiloufarBayani pic.twitter.com/lnmDRMXmzh
— Center for Human Rights in Iran (@ICHRI) April 22, 2021
Another woman, Juliet Kabera of Rwanda, is an advocate for banning plastic bags and single-use plastics and attended global treaty negotiations to tackle plastic waste and cut global production. These women, and their work and sacrifices, are often missing from media coverage about the environment.

My PhD research on environmental reporting in the Middle East and North Africa, which echoes other work in this area, found that women are often depicted as victims of climate disasters rather than experts, leaders or solution-makers. Women in the global north are more frequently included in discussions about climate policy, activism or research, than their counterparts in the global south.

When the media misses the perspectives of women living through crises, we miss their ideas and experience. As a result, environmental policies may not reflect the breadth of the problem, or address the needs of those who are most affected.

If women are more impacted by climate change and are leading the fight, why aren’t they also leading the conversation in the media? 

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Australia: Cyclones and Climate Change - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

There is strong evidence linking climate change to changes in cyclone behaviour affecting Australia, particularly demonstrated by recent events like Cyclone Alfred (March 2025). 

Here's the breakdown:

Climate Change Connection to Cyclone Intensity

  1. Warmer oceans fuel stronger cyclones
    Sea surface temperatures off Australia's east coast reached record highs between October 2024 and February 2025, providing energy for Cyclone Alfred to intensify rapidly.
    Warmer waters increase wind speeds and rainfall capacity, with global studies showing cyclones now retain strength longer and move more slowly.

  2. Increased rainfall intensity
    Alfred delivered up to 40% of Brisbane’s annual rainfall in 24 hours, a trend tied to climate-driven evaporation rates.
    For every 1°C of warming, rainfall intensity increases by at least 7%—a factor amplified in slow-moving cyclones like Alfred.

  3. Higher storm surges
    Sea levels have risen 20 cm since 1900 due to fossil fuel emissions, exacerbating Alfred’s storm surge.
    This allowed floodwaters to penetrate further inland, threatening 20,000 homes in Brisbane alone.

Southward Shift in Cyclone Tracks

  • Cyclone Alfred’s path toward Brisbane and northern NSW marks an unusual southward shift, attributed to expanding warm ocean zones.
    Research indicates cyclones are increasingly forming in subtropical regions due to:

    • Poleward expansion of warm ocean currents.
    • A 30 km per decade coastal creep in cyclone intensity zones since 1982.

  • Southern cities like Brisbane lack cyclone-resistant infrastructure, heightening disaster risks.

Slower Cyclones = Prolonged Damage

Alfred’s slowed movement over southeast Queensland resulted from weakened steering winds—a phenomenon linked to climate-driven circulation changes. This caused:

  • Extended heavy rainfall and flooding.

  • Sustained wave heights exceeding 8 meters, worsening coastal erosion.

  • Power outages and infrastructure strain affecting millions.

Scientific Consensus and Uncertainties

While the CSIRO notes that specific cyclone paths remain hard to attribute directly to climate change, key trends are clear:

  • Fewer cyclones overall, but a higher proportion are severe (Category 3+).

  • Slower decay over land, increasing inland flooding risks.

  • The IPCC and Australian Academy of Science warn of more intense cyclones and southward expansion.

Policy Implications

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s assertion that climate change intensifies disasters aligns with Climate Council and ClimaMeter analyses, though CSIRO emphasizes nuanced attribution timelines. Regardless, Alfred’s impacts underscore the urgency of emissions reduction and adaptive infrastructure in southern regions.
Cyclone Alfred exemplifies how climate change is reshaping Australia’s disaster profile, demanding updated preparedness strategies for unprecedented weather extremes.

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09/03/2025

China announces plans for major renewable projects to tackle climate change

A general view of a Taiyuan New Energy Co wind farm, during an organised media tour, in Jiuquan, Gansu province, China October 17, 2024. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo


Reuters

BEIJING: China says it will develop a package of major projects to tackle climate change as it moves to bring its carbon dioxide emissions to a peak before 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060.

The world's largest producer of climate-warming greenhouse gas said it would develop new offshore wind farms and accelerate the construction of "new energy bases" across its vast desert areas, the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's economic planner, said in an official report published on Wednesday.

"China will actively and prudently work towards peaking carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality," the report read.

Among the proposed projects cited in the report by the state planning agency was a controversial hydropower facility on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet, which has raised concerns in India about its potential impact on downstream water flows.

It also said it would develop a direct power transmission route connecting Tibet with Hong Kong, Macao and Guangdong in the southeast.

However, coal will remain a key fuel, with the NDRC report saying the country will continue to increase coal production and supply this year even as it plans for trials of low-carbon technology at its coal-fired power plants and to promote initiatives aimed at substituting fossil fuels with renewables.

China has been struggling to strike a balance between fostering economic growth and meeting its environmental goals.

The NDRC said the 3.4% reduction in the amount of carbon emissions per unit of economic growth last year "fell short of expectations", blaming rapid growth in energy consumption as well as extreme weather.

China is not expected to meet its five-year goal to bring carbon intensity down by 18% by the end of this year, and it has not yet announced an annual target for 2025.

It will also struggle to meet a separate target to cut the amount of energy consumed per unit of growth by 13.5% by the end of this year, despite exceeding expectations with a 3.8% reduction last year, analysts said.

"Despite the world record expansion of renewables, an inconvenient truth is that China's economy hasn't become much more energy efficient in recent years," said Yao Zhe, global policy advisor with Greenpeace in Beijing.
 
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08/03/2025

Cyclone Alfred is slowing – and that could make it more destructive. Here’s how climate change might have influenced it

The Conversation -

Cyclone Alfred has now been delayed, as the slow-moving system stalls in warm seas off southeast Queensland. 

Unfortunately, the expected slow pace of the cyclone will bring even more rain to affected communities.

This is because it will linger for longer over the same location, dumping more rain before it moves on. Alfred’s slowing means the huge waves triggered by the cyclone will last longer too, likely making coastal erosion and flooding worse.

Cyclone Alfred is unusual – the first cyclone in half a century to come this far south and make expected landfall.

When unusual disasters strike, people naturally want to know what role climate change played – a process known as “climate attribution”. Unfortunately, this process takes time if you want details on a specific event.

We can’t yet say if Alfred’s unusual path and slow speed are linked to climate change. But climate change is driving very clear trends which can load the dice for more intense cyclones arriving in subtropical regions. These include the warm waters which fuel cyclones spreading further south, and cyclones dumping more rain than they used to.

So, let’s unpick what’s driving Cyclone Alfred’s behaviour – including the potential role of climate change.

A Bureau of Meteorology update on Cyclone Alfred dated Thursday, March 6.

Not necessarily climate linked: Alfred’s southerly path

Many cyclones make it as far south as Brisbane – but they’re nearly all far out at sea. Weather patterns mean most cyclones heading south are diverted to the east, where remnants can hit New Zealand as large extratropical storms.

The fact that Alfred is set to make landfall is very unusual. But we can’t yet definitively say this is due to climate change. Cyclones are steered by winds and weather patterns, and the Coral Sea’s complex weather makes cyclone paths here very hard to predict.

Alfred’s abrupt westward shift is due to a large region of high pressure to its south, which has pushed it directly towards heavily populated areas of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales. These steering winds are not very strong, which is why Alfred is moving slowly.

In 2014, researchers showed cyclones are reaching their maximum intensity in areas further south in the southern hemisphere and north in the northern hemisphere than they used to. In 2021, researchers also found cyclones were reaching their maximum intensity closer to coasts, moving about 30 km closer per decade.

Climate link: Warmer seas

Cyclones typically need water temperatures of 26.5°C or more to form.

More than 90% of all extra heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions is stored in the seas. The oceans are the hottest on record, and records keep falling. But normal seasonal variability and shifting ocean currents are still at work too, and we can get unusually warm waters without climate change as a cause.

What we do know is that ocean temperatures around much of Australia have been unusually warm.

The northeastern Coral Sea, where Cyclone Alfred formed, experienced the fourth-hottest temperatures on record for February and the hottest on record for January. 

In the Coral Sea, sea surface temperatures were the fourth highest on record in February 2025 and the highest on record in January 2025. This figure shows the trend over time for February. Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

We also know Australia’s southern waters are warming up too.

The energy available to power tropical cyclones in subtropical regions has also increased in recent decades, due largely to rising ocean temperatures. 

Average sea surface temperatures in central and southern Queensland on Thursday March 6th. Point Danger is on the Gold Coast. Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

Climate link: Fewer cyclones but more likely to be intense

In the northern hemisphere, researchers have found a trend towards fewer cyclones over time. But of those which do form, a higher proportion are more intense.

It’s not fully clear if the same trend exists in the southern hemisphere, though we are seeing fewer cyclones forming over time.

This summer, eight tropical cyclones have formed in Australian waters. Six were classified as severe (category 3 and up). Historically, Australia has experienced a higher proportion of category 1 and 2 cyclones, which bring weaker wind speeds.

On average, we see about 11 cyclones form and 4-5 make landfall. There has been a downward trend in the number of cyclones forming in the Australian region in recent decades.

Fewer cyclones, but more likely to be intense: this figure shows the number of severe (Category 3 and up) and non-severe tropical cyclones (Category 1 and 2) since 1970/71. Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND




Climate link: Cyclones dumping more rain

The intensity of a cyclone refers to the speed of the wind and size of the wind-affected area.

But a cyclone’s rain field is also important. This refers to the area of heavy rain produced by storms when they’re at cyclone intensity and afterwards as they decay into tropical lows.

The rate of rainfall brought by cyclones in Australia isn’t necessarily increasing, but more cyclones are moving slowly, such as Alfred. This means more rain per cyclone, on average.

Rising ocean temperatures mean more water evaporates off the sea surface, meaning forming cyclones can absorb more moisture and dump more rain when it reaches land.

Why are cyclones slowing down? This is likely because air current circulation in the tropics has weakened. This has a clear link to climate change. Wind speeds have fallen 5 to 15% in the tropics, depending on where you are in the world. It’s hard to pinpoint the change clearly in our region, because the historic record of cyclone tracks isn’t very long.

For every degree (°C) of warming, rainfall intensity increases 7%. This is well established. But newer research is showing the rate may actually be double this or even higher, as the process of condensation releases heat which can trigger more rain.

Clear climate link: Bigger storm surges due to sea level rise

Sea levels are on average about 20 centimetres higher than they were before 1880.

When a cyclone is about to make landfall, its intense winds push up a body of seawater ahead of it – the storm surge. In low lying areas, this can spill out and flood streets.

Because climate change is causing baseline sea levels to rise, storm surges can reach further inland. Sea-level rise will also make coastal erosion more destructive.

Huge swells have forced beach closures ahead of Cyclone Alfred’s arrival. Jason O'Brien/AAP


What should we take from this?

We can’t say definitively that climate change is behind Cyclone Alfred’s unusual track.

But factors such as rising sea levels, slower cyclones and warmer oceans are changing how cyclones behave and the damage they can do.

Over time, we can expect to see cyclones arriving in regions not historically affected – and carrying more rain when they arrive.

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07/03/2025

Heatwaves, fires, torrential rain, fish kills: Australia’s summer of climate extremes

Sydney Morning Herald - Caitlin Fitzsimmons

Australian summer smashed temperature records yet again, fuelling climate disasters around the country, while the weather bureau has predicted a hot autumn.

A Sydneysider shelters in the shade at Bondi on a hot day in January. Credit: Dion Georgopoulos
The season was marked by bushfires in Victoria and Tasmania, heatwaves that stretched from Sydney to Perth, record-breaking deluges in tropical north Queensland, and marine heatwaves that killed coral and fish around the entire continent.

Scientia Professor Matthew England, a climate scientist at the University of NSW, said climate change had profoundly altered Australian summers over the past couple of decades.

“When I was a kid growing up, summer was the season Australians looked forward to, but these days there’s a collective trepidation about summer because it’s the season where the worst climate extremes are playing out,” England said.

“It’s the season that we’re most fearful or anxious about – what sort of heatwaves will we have, what bushfire risks will come about, where will the flooding rains be?”

There is more to come – the Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast for March to May shows a high likelihood of warmer-than-average days and nights and an increased chance of unusually hot days and nights across the country. Rainfall is likely to be in the typical range for most of Australia, including NSW and Victoria.

While the weather bureau will release a more detailed climate summary next week, a spokesperson said summer had been much warmer than usual for most of Australia.

Heating Australia

Heating Australia: Average temperatures from 1910 to 2024

 Average temperatures from 1910 to 2024. Bureau of Meteorology

“Every state and territory had above-average daytime and night-time temperatures,” the spokesperson said. “Parts of the west and some central areas had their warmest summer on record.”

This comes after 2024 was confirmed as the hottest year on record globally, followed by news from Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service that January 2025 was the world’s hottest ever January.

For Australia, it was the second-warmest January since records began in 1910, with BoM figures showing the average temperature sitting 2.15 degrees above the 1961-90 benchmark. It followed the third-warmest December since 1910, with the national average temperature 1.88 degrees above the long-term average.

An early morning walker exercises in Brighton-le-Sands ahead of a sweltering January summer day. Credit: Sam Mooy
The highest daytime temperature of the summer anywhere in the country was 49.3 degrees at Geraldton Airport in the Mid West of Western Australia on January 20, the weather bureau said. The hottest night-time temperature of the summer was at Leinster Aero in WA, which was 34.8 degrees overnight on February 9.

Summer was wetter than usual for parts of the country’s east and north-west, but drier than average across parts of the country’s south and central areas, including large parts of NSW and the Northern Territory and most of Victoria. Large areas also had summer rainfall that was close to average.

The monsoon did not reach Darwin until February 7, the latest since records began. The previous record was January 25 in 1973.

However, the monsoon trough was established over Queensland from the end of January and also briefly in northern WA. The coastal area between Townsville and Ingham in Queensland had its highest February monthly rainfall on record, with some areas receiving 1.5 metres of rain over three days, causing massive river flooding.

Flooding in Macknade in North Queensland in February. Credit: Nick Moir 
The wettest day of the summer anywhere in the country was February 3 at Paluma Ivy Cottage in Queensland, which recorded 745.2mm in one day.

Australia has had seven tropical cyclones in our region so far this season. On February 14, Tropical Cyclone Zelia was the first of the season to cross Australia’s mainland, causing high rainfall in the Pilbara region of WA.

The extreme weather events and associated natural disasters also included bushfires in Victoria and Tasmania, and a marine heatwave that caused coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef and Ningaloo Reef in WA, the death of about 30,000 ocean fish off the Pilbara coast, and a mass mortality event in salmon farms in Tasmania.

A farmer and Country Fire Authority volunteer monitors the fire beside his property near the Grampians in December. Credit: Justin McManus

The Climate Council has released a heat map tool revealing how Australian electorates would fare under a high-emissions scenario leading to global warming of 4.4 degrees by 2100.

The electorate of Parkes in north-western NSW would face 120 days a year over 35 degrees by 2090, up from an average of 55 days now. In Sydney, north shore electorate Bradfield would have 21 hot days, up from five, while neighbouring Bennelong would increase from six to 23.

The seat of Mallee in Victoria would have 58 days over 35 degrees by 2090, up from 25. The Casey electorate in east Melbourne would increase from three hot days to 14, while bayside Goldstein would increase from seven to 20 hot days.

The hottest electorate in Queensland would be Kennedy, with an increase from 110 days above 35 degrees on average to 214, while the electorate of Brisbane would face an increase in hot days from two to 24, and hot nights above 25 degrees from one to 33.

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