Australia sets 2035 emissions target at 62–70% below 2005 levels - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

The Federal Government has unveiled a new climate target, committing Australia to cut emissions by 62–70% from 2005 levels by 2035.
The range, described as ambitious but achievable, falls slightly below recommendations from independent climate advisers.
The package includes billions in funding for clean energy, low-carbon fuels, and industrial decarbonisation programs.
Officials emphasised the plan keeps Australia on track for its net-zero by 2050 commitment while balancing economic realities.

2035 Emissions Target

Main decisions

• 2035 target: Set a national emissions reduction target of 62–70% below 2005 levels by 2035. — source: Reuters.
• Net zero reaffirmed: Government reaffirmed Australia’s commitment to reach net zero by 2050. — source: AP News.
• Ambition caveat: Government described the range as the maximum feasible ambition now, saying targets above ~70% are not realistic at present. — source: Reuters.

Funding, programs and specific allocations

• National Reconstruction / Net Zero Fund: $5.0 billion to support industrial decarbonisation and low-emissions manufacturing. — source: BeefCentral (reporting on government package).
• Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC): $2.0 billion additional support to back clean energy projects and help moderate electricity prices. — source: Reuters.
• Clean fuels support: ~$1.1 billion to accelerate local clean fuels production and related industries. — source: BeefCentral.
• EV charging rollout: $40 million to speed kerbside and fast-charger deployment in suburban and regional areas. — source: BeefCentral.
• Household/business energy programs: $85 million for frameworks and tools to help households and businesses lift energy performance. — source: BeefCentral.

Policy levers, sectoral priorities and modelling context

• Electricity transition: Emphasis on scaling renewables, transmission upgrades, storage and household batteries to decarbonise the grid. — source: BeefCentral.
• Electrification & efficiency: Push on electrifying transport and industry, improving appliance and building efficiency and supporting EV uptake (including vehicle standards). — source: BeefCentral.
• Clean fuels and hydrogen: Support for domestic low/zero carbon liquid fuels, hydrogen and other emerging fuels as part of industry decarbonisation. — source: BeefCentral.
• Carbon removals & ACCU reform: Focus on scaling net carbon removals including through landholder programs and improvements to the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) framework. — source: BeefCentral.
• Modelling context: Treasury and Climate Change Authority modelling previously suggested ranges around 65–75% by 2035, so the announced 62–70% sits slightly below some expert upper scenarios. — source: Reuters.
• International timing: The announcement updates Australia’s near-term ambition ahead of upcoming UN climate processes, including COP meetings. — source: Reuters.

Media coverage

• Reuters: Australia announces lower than expected 2035 emissions reduction target of 62%-70% 
  A country has announced a new 2035 emissions reduction target of 62–70% below 2005 levels, a figure lower than some advisory ranges and modelled recommendations.
• AP News: Australia targets at least 62% emissions cut in the next decade 
  Australia has announced a new climate target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 62% to 70% below 2005 levels by 2035, reinforcing its longer-term net-zero commitment.
• The Daily Telegraph: Anthony Albanese announces a 62 to 70 per cent emissions reduction target 
  Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a national emissions reduction target of 62% to 70% by 2035, framed as part of the pathway to net zero by 2050.
• The Australian: Emissions reduction target for 2035 set at between 62% to 70% 
  On 18 September 2025 the federal government announced a new 2035 emissions reduction target aiming for a 62%–70% cut from 2005 levels.
• news.com.au: 2035 climate target: Treasury warns of hit to living standards in disorderly transition 
  A Treasury report published with the government's updated 2035 target warns of severe economic consequences if the transition to lower emissions is disorderly or delayed.
• ABC News: Business and climate groups stand at opposite ends on 2035 climate target 
  Climate advocates say the government should aim higher, while business representatives warn that an over-ambitious target could risk jobs and exports if not managed carefully.
• SBS News: Australia urged to adopt more 'ambitious' emissions reduction target Observers and some climate groups are urging the government to adopt a more ambitious 2035 target, warning that the economic cost of inaction could be far higher in the long term.
• The Guardian: Albanese unveils ‘responsible’ new climate target to slash emissions over next decade
  Australia will aim to cut greenhouse gas emissions between 62% and 70% on 2005 levels by 2035, the PM has announced.

Commentary

Experts and Academia

• Dr. Kat O'Mara, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Management and Sustainability at Edith Cowan University, said: "It was pleasing to see that the Prime Minister has acknowledged the need to increase our commitment to reducing carbon emissions, and the impact that our current approach would have on the economy and jobs."
• Professor Deanna D'Alessandro, Director of the Net Zero Institute, University of Sydney, called the announcement a "major opportunity for Australia to use bold solutions for decarbonisation."
• Dr. Wesley Morgan, Research associate from the Institute for Climate Risk & Response at the University of New South Wales, noted that to meet Australia's share of global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C, "our 2035 target should have been a cut of at least 75% on 2005 levels by 2035." 

Advocacy and Environmental Groups

• Climate Analytics said the new target "simply doesn't match the level of action required to stave off many of the extreme climate change impacts warned Australians about in this week's Climate Risk Assessment."
• Greenpeace Australia Pacific stated that the government's plan "prioritizes fossil fuel profits and business interests over people," and effectively abandons Australia's commitment to 1.5°C.
• The Australian Conservation Foundation called the target "timid" and argued that the range "condemns Australian communities to ongoing climate harm and is embarrassing in the face of the climate leadership being shown by our Pacific neighbours and states like Victoria and New South Wales. 

Political Leaders

• Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated, "This is a responsible target backed by the science, backed by a practical plan to get there and built on proven technology."
• Opposition Leader Sussan Ley said the target "fails on both counts" when it came to cost and credibility, adding, "you cannot trust a single thing this government says".
• Greens Senator Larissa Waters said the government's "actual target was 62%, which she described as 'appallingly low'," and that "Labor have sold out to the coal and gas corporations with this utter failure of a climate target."

Media and Commentators

• Michelle Grattan, a Professorial Fellow at the University of Canberra and commentator for Australian Geographic, wrote that the "wide range seeks to straddle, to the extent possible, those in business pressing for the target to be kept relatively modest and environmentalists who want more ambition".
• Giles Parkinson, editor of RenewEconomy, wrote that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese "has set a 2035 emissions reduction target of 62 to 70 per cent, at the lower end of expectations following an intense campaign by big business interests, and despite a catastrophic forecast of climate impacts released earlier this week".

Australia’s Climate Risk Assessment: Media and Sector Commentary - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

David Pope, The Canberra Times

The release of the First National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) has sparked significant reactions across media and sectors including agriculture, energy, insurance, and finance. 

Below are summaries of major perspectives, highlighting risks, responses, and what organisations want to see happen.

The Guardian

The Guardian described the NCRA as delivering a “stark warning about the multifaceted and intensifying risks of climate change across the country” ^[1].

It emphasised projections such as heat-related deaths increasing up to 444% in Sydney if warming reaches 3 °C, and the economic burden reaching $40 billion annually by 2050 ^[1].

The Guardian used the phrasing “cascading, compounding, and concurrent” risks, arguing that multiple impacts (on health, infrastructure, emergency services etc.) are likely to overlap and worsen each other ^[1].

It also warned of threats to biodiversity, observing that at least 17 ecosystems are already showing signs of collapse ^[1].

Reuters

Reuters reported the NCRA warned that “no community will be immune to the cascading and compounding effects of climate change” ^[2].

It quoted Climate Minister Chris Bowen saying that while some impacts are unavoidable, moving toward net-zero emissions by 2050 can still reduce future damage ^[2].

Reuters flagged that northern, remote, and outer urban areas are particularly vulnerable to multiple overlapping climate risks ^[2].

It noted that the NCRA is paired with a national adaptation plan aimed at improving coordination across levels of government to address these risks ^[2].

Zurich (Mandala-Zurich Climate Risk Index)

Zurich’s Climate Risk Index found that over a quarter of Australia’s energy generation assets are already in the highest risk categories, and that this proportion is expected to grow significantly by 2050 ^[3].

The Northern Territory grid is especially exposed, with about 96% of its existing generation capacity in the top three risk tiers under an intermediate warming scenario ^[3].

Western Australia’s grid was also identified as highly vulnerable to climate extremes ^[3].

These findings stressed the need for energy sector investment and planning to be risk-aware and responsive to climate hazards ^[3].

Climate Change in Australia (ESCI Project)

The ESCI (Electricity Sector Climate Information) project came up as a tool to integrate climate risk into electricity planning and modelling ^[4].

It emphasises that climate modelling should align with decision-making horizons in the energy sector ^[4].

ESCI identifies pathways for embedding extreme weather and other climate hazards into standards for grid reliability, infrastructure design, and investment strategy ^[4].

Its work complements the NCRA by providing sector-specific insights that help manage growing hazard exposure ^[4].

Insurance Council of Australia / APRA

The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) and APRA are conducting a Climate Vulnerability Assessment involving major general insurers like IAG, Suncorp, QBE, Allianz and Hollard ^[5].

This initiative aims to understand how affordability and availability of general insurance may evolve under climate scenarios out to 2050 ^[6].

ICA has warned that many homeowners in high-risk areas are already exposed to growing hazard risk, pushing for a long-term agenda for disaster resilience ^[7].

There is concern that some properties or regions may become uninsurable unless risk reduction, better planning, resilient building and regulatory standards are improved ^[8].

Reserve Bank of Australia

The RBA flagged that climate change could amplify financial system stress, especially via insurance, property markets, and non-bank intermediaries ^[9].

It noted that insufficient insurance coverage for properties can introduce ripple effects through mortgages and lending when disaster hits ^[9].

APRA emphasised that its insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) will deepen national understanding of how climate risk affects affordability and the protection gap ^[6].

Analysts warn that rising premiums and underinsurance will disproportionately affect poorer and more vulnerable communities, increasing inequality and economic risk ^[10].

References

1. The Guardian — Key takeaways from Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment
2. Reuters — Australia faces cascading climate risks, government report says
3. Zurich — Climate Risk Index finds energy assets highly exposed
4. Climate Change in Australia — ESCI Project
5. Insurance Business — APRA’s climate risk study to shape future of insurance affordability
6. APRA — Details on Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment
7. Insurance Business — Climate risk hits millions of Australian homes
8. EBM Insurance — Climate change vs insurance
9. RBA — Resilience of the Australian Financial System
10. Reuters — Australian homeowners struggling to afford insurance

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Australia issues ‘terrifying’ climate warning - Julian Cribb

AUTHOR

Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

Higher global warming will bring ‘terrifying impacts’ to human health, infrastructure, the environment, national security and the economy, the Australian Government has warned.

The First National Climate Risk Assessment summarises the threats to Australia – and, indeed every country on the Planet – from a wild climate that is increasingly out-of-control.

Key findings include:

• No part of the country is immune from climate impacts

• A hotter climate brings greater risks to all

• Future changes may be sudden and large

• Every small increase in temperature brings greater chances of multiple impacts, unleashing tipping points

• Even small changes create feedbacks that make other factors worse

• Stabilising global warming will not prevent all climate impacts, some of which will persist for centuries.

The report identified over 60 intensifying risks facing the nation in areas such as the economy, food security, defence, health, communities, infrastructure, the natural environment, indigenous people and trade.

By 2050 it said all these risks would be rated “very high”. Risks to health and the environment were rated at the extreme end of “very severe”, while defence and community risks were “severe”.

Figure 1. Rising severity of climate risks to Australia. Source: Australian Government 2025.

The report stated that parts of the environment were already in danger of collapse, notably the ability of forests, wetlands and oceans to function as carbon sinks.

Importantly, too, it warned of rising food insecurity in Australia, a country endowed with a generous food surplus which feeds 60 million people worldwide. This will result from falling crop yields, rising heat stress for livestock, increasing loss of water for irrigation, declining output from forestry and fisheries and biosecurity threats.

While the report focuses mainly on the role of the Australian Defence Force in disaster prevention and relief, it also noted the scope for wider security impacts in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond, as more countries struggle to deal with unmanageable climate impacts.

Commenting on the government’s report the Admiral Chris Barrie, head of the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group, said “It reveals a level of threat that now demands a fundamental shift in national planning, energy, and budget priorities.”

“The NCRA paints a terrifying picture of climate impacts in a future Australia that will fundamentally change how and where Australians live and work, with even more severe storms and flooding, unbearable heatwaves and deeper droughts, and pressure on industry, infrastructure, agriculture and vulnerable communities.

“It is shocking that 1.5 million Australians will be at risk from sea level rise by 2050., and 597,000 will be at risk just five years from now. Parts of northern Australia will become unliveable, and it is likely that climate impacts will drive a permanent food cost-of-living crisis.”

While written exclusively for Australia, the Future Climate Report has profound implications for other nations, notably the USA. The Trump regime has implemented over 140 policies designed to promote fossil fuels, gag government and university climate research, and cripple the shift to clean energy.

Deprived of the truth, in future citizens of counties like the US and Russia may have to rely on official warnings emanating from countries like Australia, Germany, Sweden and New Zealand to cope with their own mounting domestic crises.

The report comes at an important time for Australia, whose successive LNP and Labor governments have consistently placed the interest of oil and coal companies above those of the nation itself. It presents the Australian government with an acute dilemma – to side with its people or to side with foreign-owned fossil corporates.

According to the research thinktank the Australia Institute, the nation already spends over $15 billion a year – equal to a quarter of its defence budget – on propping up largely foreign-owned coal and oil companies.

On top of this the current Australian Government has approved of over 6 billion tonnes of new coal and gas emissions since taking office in 2022, making Australia the world’s third worst carbon export villain. It has 29 new fossil fuel projects in the approval pipeline.

Amid all this, Australia is currently competing with Türkiye to co-host the next United Nations Climate COP31 conference, due in November, with the support of the Pacific Island nations it is trying to drown with its energy policies.

For the past four years the COP conference has been corrupted by dominant fossil fuels interests and it remains to be seen whether Australia is serious about fixing the climate – or merely acting as another stooge for planet-wide destruction. 

The First National Climate Risk Assessment makes it clear that actions which promote the continued use of fossil fuels by Australia are inimical to the interests of its people and, indeed, to all citizens of Earth. It provides a test of political integrity at a time when the phrase has become almost meaningless.

At the least it offers an honest appraisal of the consequences for Australia – and most other countries – of persistently ignoring one of the gravest perils of our age. An opportunity to change, and to side with humanity against the forces of greed and darkness that surround us.

Links

• Australia's first National Climate Risk Assessment
• Fossil fuel subsidies - The Australia Institute
• “Australia faces cascading climate risks, government report says” — Reuters 
• “‘Cascading, compounding’: five key takeaways from Australia’s national climate risk assessment” — The Guardian 
• “Australia climate report: Millions face devastating coastal flooding risk” — The Australian 
• “Apocalyptic report a ‘wake-up call’ on climate impacts: PM” — Australian Financial Review 
• “First National Climate Risk Assessment report released | Ministers” — Official government media release 

 

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National Climate Risk Assessment 2025 Reveals Escalating Threats Across Australia - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Federal Government Analysis
Australia’s Climate Risk
A Nation Confronts a Warming Future

Report

The National Climate Risk Assessment 2025 is the first government-wide assessment of climate threats to Australia’s society, economy, and environment. It was commissioned by the Commonwealth Government to provide a structured understanding of the risks climate change poses across critical systems. The assessment was coordinated by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW), drawing on data and expertise from agencies including CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, Infrastructure Australia, and health authorities. Its purpose is to inform national decision-making by identifying priority risks and vulnerabilities that require urgent attention. The report also integrates consultation with states, territories, industry, and Indigenous communities to ensure diverse perspectives are represented. Ultimately, it is intended as a foundation for future national adaptation planning, guiding policy, investment, and community resilience.

Key Points

Heat, drought, and fires disrupt daily life[1] Insurance and housing pressures are rising[6] Indigenous communities face severe cultural risks[13] Economic costs from climate damage are escalating[5] Policy decisions in the next five years are critical[23]

Social Impacts

The Climate Risk Assessment warns that vulnerable populations, including the elderly and outdoor workers, face disproportionate health risks^[1].

The report notes that without intervention, social divisions could deepen^[2].

This adds pressure to healthcare systems that are already stretched^[3].

Economic Consequences

Farmers in the Murray-Darling Basin are already reporting crop losses and water scarcity^[4].

A single disruption in coal or gas exports could trigger billions in losses^[5].

This creates a feedback loop of declining property values and social stress^[6].

Ecological Pressures

Coral loss threatens biodiversity and undermines tourism revenue^[7].

Species with limited mobility, including koalas, are particularly vulnerable^[8].

This has already contributed to mass fish kills in inland river systems^[9].

Political and Policy Challenges

Critics argue that approving new gas and coal projects undermines Australia’s credibility in global negotiations^[10].

Others remain tied to resource exports, creating a fragmented national strategy^[11].

Failure to respond effectively risks fuelling political disillusionment^[12].

Cultural and Indigenous Dimensions

Traditional knowledge offers adaptive insights, but communities often lack structural support^[13].

Many Indigenous leaders call for co-management of climate adaptation plans^[14].

Exhibitions, literature, and performances increasingly frame climate change as a shared cultural struggle^[15].

Community Responses

Communities in fire-prone regions are creating volunteer networks to build resilience^[16].

Yet critics warn that voluntary action is insufficient without systemic regulation^[17].

Younger generations are driving advocacy, demanding urgent reforms across politics and business^[18].

Global Context

The report warns that continued reliance on carbon exports risks long-term economic isolation^[19].

This vulnerability underscores the need for resilience planning^[20].

Australia’s response will shape regional alliances and influence global negotiations^[21].

Outlook

Climate impacts will test not only physical infrastructure but also the resilience of democratic institutions and cultural identity^[22].

The choices made in the next five years will be decisive^[23].

The report argues that collective action across all sectors of society can still bend the trajectory^[24].

References

1. Australian Department of Health – Climate and Health
2. ABS – Income and Wealth Inequality
3. Beyond Blue – Mental Health Statistics
4. Department of Agriculture – Drought and Farming
5. Infrastructure Australia – National Risks
6. ABC News – Insurance Retreat
7. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority – Reef Health
8. CSIRO – Bushfire Research
9. MDBA – Fish Deaths
10. The Guardian – Climate Politics
11. Victoria Energy – Renewables
12. Sydney Morning Herald – Federal Politics
13. Torres Strait Regional Authority – Communities
14. NIAA – Indigenous Affairs
15. Australia Council for the Arts – Climate and Culture
16. Australian Local Government Association – Climate Policy
17. Australian Financial Review – Climate Finance
18. Department of Education – Climate Education
19. Department of Industry – Climate Strategy
20. Australian Parliament – Committees on Climate
21. Pacific Islands Forum – Regional Climate
22. Climate Council – Resources
23. CSIRO – Climate Change Projections
24. UNEP – Emissions Gap Report

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Bendigo Victoria 2050: Extreme Heat, Drought, and Fire Risks - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Bendigo faces rising heat, fires,
floods, and drought by 2050

Key points

Annual mean temperature up by 1.1–1.5 °C 1 Days over 38 °C quadruple by 2050 2 Fire danger days rise 60% 3 Cool season rainfall decreases, floods intensify 4 Heatwaves and droughts grow hotter, longer 5 Current local action lags Victoria's targets 6

Rising Temperatures

By 2050, Bendigo’s average annual temperature is projected to rise by around 1.1–1.5 °C, turning current warm spells into frequent heat events.¹

Days exceeding 38 °C could quadruple, from just over four per year now to approximately 16 each year by mid-century.²

Extreme heat will threaten public health, especially for vulnerable groups, and strain local infrastructure, hospitals, and energy networks.¹

Surging Fire Risks

Fire weather is expected to worsen, with the number of high fire danger days increasing by up to 60% by 2050.³

Longer, hotter fire seasons will raise the likelihood of catastrophic bushfires, threatening homes, forests, and biodiversity.³

Community resilience will hinge on stronger emergency planning, clearing fuel loads, and investing in fire education.³

Changing Rainfall and Flooding

Rainfall trends show Bendigo, and much of Victoria, becoming drier, especially during autumn and winter.⁴

Cool season rainfall could decline by 10% or more, stressing farm yields and diminishing water supply.⁴

Meanwhile, extreme rainfall events are forecast to intensify, driving up flood risk and damaging both urban and rural infrastructure.⁴

Intensifying Heatwaves and Droughts

Heatwaves will grow more frequent, intense, and longer, with the typical heatwave season starting earlier and lasting longer.⁵

Recent droughts have warmed rapidly, affecting Bendigo’s agriculture and increasing pressure on local water management.⁵

This combination could force farmers toward new crop varieties and irrigation strategies, or even prompt shifts in livelihoods.⁵

Socio-Economic Challenges

The economic ramifications are stark: rising temperatures and erratic rainfall will challenge Bendigo's farms, reduce harvest reliability, and drive up costs for water and energy.⁵

Insurance premiums for homes and businesses may rise, while some properties in flood-prone areas could become uninsurable.⁵

Rural jobs dependent on cropping and grazing risk decline unless adaptation and diversification accelerate.⁴

Ecological Disruption

Local bushland faces mounting threats as fire seasons lengthen and species like woodland birds, mammals, and invertebrates struggle to adapt.³

Drier conditions could reduce habitat for frogs and wetland species, and frequent fires may transform native vegetation.³

Land managers will require robust conservation and restoration strategies to safeguard biodiversity.³

Social and Cultural Impacts

Heatwaves and fires will make outdoor community events riskier; sports, festivals, and outdoor work may need rethinking—or rescheduling.²

Older residents and children face elevated health risks, especially in periods of extreme heat.²

Local identity tied to family farms and bush landscapes may shift as residents adapt new ways of living.⁴

Political Response and Local Action

Victoria has legislated a net zero by 2045 target, with interim milestones aiming for steep emission reductions by 2030 and 2035.⁶

Local projects include solar rollouts, waste reduction, and some progress on flood management.⁶

However, Bendigo lags in deep emission cuts and in adapting housing and infrastructure to fire and flood risks.⁶

Urgent priorities include tightening building codes, investing in renewable energy, increasing tree canopy, and supporting farmers with drought-resistant technologies.⁶

Sea Level Rise

Though Bendigo is inland, Victoria’s coastal cities face rising seas, which is projected to continue regardless of emission scenarios.⁴

Displacement from coastal flooding and bushfires could see population flows to regional hubs like Bendigo, influencing housing and job markets.⁴

Beyond 2025: What’s Needed?

If Bendigo maintains current climate action levels, the region risks greater damage, loss, and hardship.⁶

Meeting 2050’s challenges will demand wide collaboration across council, state government, business, and communities.⁶

Clearer policies, ongoing citizen involvement, and integrated disaster planning can ensure resilience and protect Bendigo’s unique social and ecological character.⁶

References

1. Victoria's changing climate projections, 2024
2. Climate change impacts for Bendigo region
3. Fire risk data: Climate Science Report 2024, Victoria
4. Rainfall & flooding trends, Victoria’s climate summary 2024
5. Heatwaves, drought trends, and socio-economic risks
6. Victoria’s climate action targets

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Australia’s Gas Gamble: Global, Cultural, Legal, and Climate Fallout - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Woodside North West Shelf Gas Project Approval
ignites climate cultural and legal backlash at home and abroad

Key points

The extension enables 90 million tonnes of emissions per year1 Murujuga rock art faces ongoing acid gas risk1 Energy prices in WA have already tripled since last export expansion1 The project is royalty-free, gifting up to $215 billion in gas1 Australia’s international legal exposure is likely to increase2 Project will consume 6% of the global 1.5°C carbon budget2 Direct conflict with Pacific Island climate priorities2

Social Impacts

The North West Shelf project promises jobs and secure energy supply for some, but will disproportionately affect marginalised communities near the gas hub.¹

Indigenous leaders and heritage advocates fear lasting damage to the Murujuga petroglyphs, with government conditions seen as vague and industry-driven.¹

Pacific nations see the expansion as an existential threat, with warming and sea-level rise directly tied to expanded fossil gas output.²

Economic Impacts

Federal and Western Australian authorities tout economic security, yet analysis shows a looming domestic gas shortage, even as exporters are given royalty-free rights to enough reserves to supply WA for 90 years.¹

Wholesale gas and electricity prices have already tripled in WA since the last wave of gas exports, and the manufacturing sector remains exposed to the volatility of international energy markets.¹

The Australia Institute calls the no-royalty arrangement “the greatest giveaway of Australian resources ever”, a windfall for Woodside but a fiscal hit for the taxpayer equivalent to four years of the national defence budget.¹

Ecological Impacts

Projected greenhouse emissions—90 million tonnes a year—will make this extension equivalent to twelve new coal power stations.¹

Climate scientists warn Woodside’s full Burrup Hub, including the North West Shelf, will consume 6% of the world’s remaining 1.5°C carbon budget, with ongoing warming consequences lasting centuries.²

Heat-related damages globally are projected to reach A$272 billion as emissions fuel more extreme temperatures and Arctic sea ice loss.²

Political Impacts

The decision’s timing—immediately after the Pacific Islands’ annual climate summit—was read as a rejection of regional climate priorities and leadership aspirations.²

Fossil fuel interests appear favoured over climate targets, and critics say the move undermines both Prime Minister Albanese’s climate promises and international Paris Agreement obligations.²

Legal experts cite Australia’s exposure to action in international courts under the recent ICJ advisory opinion classifying such approvals as “wrongful acts”.²

Cultural Impacts

Murujuga, recently declared a UNESCO World Heritage site, faces decades of acid gas accumulation eroding its ancient petroglyphs.¹

Indigenous custodians and climate advocates are demanding tighter controls and transparency regarding emissions and corporate influence over heritage management.¹

Many Australians consider the approval a betrayal of both cultural stewardship and intergenerational fairness.^1  2

Global Reverberations

Australia’s approval sets a precedent for fossil expansion in advanced economies, risking reputational damage just as world leaders urge accelerated emissions reduction.²

Critics say the project will leave Australia out of step with renewable energy leadership and climate diplomacy.²

Climate Analytics: North West Shelf and Woodside's Burrup Hub Quick Facts

• Total emissions from Woodside's full Burrup Hub project (the North West Shelf and Pluto projects combined) will consume 6% of the remaining global carbon budget for 1.5˚C. It will impose six billion tonnes of CO2 removal obligations on future generations.
• The NWS approval to 2070 allows Woodside to emit double its historical emissions
• It could allow about twice the cumulative GHG emissions to occur from 2026 until 2070 than have occurred since the project started in the 1980s.
• The total cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from the NWS LNG plant until 2070 will be 80% of the 1.5°C aligned pathway emissions for Australia as a whole.
• Woodside's plant will be still emitting greenhouse gases 20 years after Australia is supposed to have reached net zero.
• Woodside’s Burrup Hub will cause 16,000 km² loss of Arctic sea ice.
• NWS emissions could cost US$176 billion in extreme heat-related damages globally and Burrup Hub US$272 billion.
• Warming from NWS emissions will continue for thousands of years: 30-40% of NWS CO2 emissions will remain in atmosphere in 100 years,10-20% in 10,000 years.

References

1. Australia Institute. “North West Shelf final approval a climate, economic and energy security disaster”, Sept. 2025
2. Climate Analytics. “Australian government gaslights the nation as it puts Woodside ahead of the World and the Pacific”, Sept. 2025
3. Lyrebird Dreaming. "Gas, Coal and Greenwash: Why Australia Doesn’t Deserve to Host COP31", Sept. 2025
4. SBS. Fossil fuel project that threatens cultural treasures approved with conditions to run to 2070. Sept. 2025

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Geelong 2050: Rising Heat, Floods, and Fires Threaten the City’s Future - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Geelong faces rising heat, floods,
fires, and coastal threats by 2050

The projected impacts of climate change on Geelong, Victoria, by 2050 will radically reshape every facet 
of the city, from the weather and ecology to its economy and daily life.¹

Key Points
Days over 35°C may double by 2050 in Geelong.	1
Sea level rise of at least 24cm expected by 2050.	2
Statewide emissions reduction targets: 75–80% below 2005 by 2035, net zero by 2045.	3
Heatwaves, drought, and bushfire will increase in frequency and severity.	4
Geelong’s current strategy prioritises climate action, renewable energy, and a circular economy.	5
Without rapid new action, climate hazards could double and costs soar.	6

Geelong must adapt quickly or face escalating climate dangers by 2050.

Residents will feel the bite of more frequent and longer heatwaves.¹

Experts project that days exceeding 35°C may double in number for communities across southeastern Australia by 2050, and Geelong will not be spared.¹

Heat stress will threaten the health of vulnerable populations, increasing ambulance callouts and emergency room visits.¹

The expanded risk of bushfire, even this close to the coast, will disrupt urban services and public events, forcing schools to close and putting neighbourhoods on edge.⁴

Mental health strains—driven by climate anxiety and the stress of adapting to uncertain seasons—will become common.⁶

Flood risk will increase, especially for parts of the city built along low-lying creeks and the Barwon River, raising insurance costs and forcing new social policies in housing and risk management.⁴

As these hazards accelerate, equitable adaptation and community resilience strategies will be necessary to protect those most at risk.⁶

Economic Impacts

Geelong’s economy is uniquely diversified, but climate disruption threatens all its pillars.

The Victorian Government’s emission reduction targets provide scope for future job growth in renewable energy, zero-carbon transport, and land restoration.³

Manufacturing, logistics, and agriculture will need to adapt as temperatures and rainfall patterns shift: heatwaves will disrupt supply chains and force up cooling costs, while water scarcity could hit agricultural yields hard.⁴

Floods and fires will periodically damage infrastructure, require expensive upgrades, and stress insurance and recovery budgets.⁴

Meanwhile, opportunities will emerge for climate-tech start-ups, circular economy initiatives, and restoration projects that can help Geelong transition towards a “net-zero” future.⁵

Every dollar spent on adaptation in 2025 could save multiples by mid-century, but only if ambitious policy and local business action continues.³

Ecological Impacts

Already, Geelong’s coastal ecology faces mounting pressure from the warming climate.

By 2050, average temperatures are likely to rise by at least 1.5°C above the 1960-1990 baseline, with regional projections warning that 2°C may be reached if global emissions remain high.¹

Native vegetation, including wetlands and coastal reserves, will be threatened by shifting rainfall patterns and sea level rise—24cm is a baseline projection for the Victorian coast by mid-century, with greater rises possible.²

Increased bushfire risk will damage woodland biodiversity and force changes in wildlife corridors and habitat conservation.⁴

Estuaries and coastal waters will experience higher salinity and lower oxygen levels, stressing fisheries and reducing the resilience of saltmarshes and mangroves.²

Without immediate ecological restoration and managed retreat at vulnerable sites, losses to biodiversity and ecosystem services are likely to accelerate.⁵

Political Impacts

Victoria has legislated aggressive emissions reduction targets: 28–33% below 2005 levels by 2025, 45–50% by 2030, 75–80% by 2035, and net zero by 2045.³

Geelong’s own climate plan aligns with these, prioritising renewable energy uptake, circular economy action, sustainable cities, and climate-safe building standards.⁵

However, gaps remain between goals and real action.

While emissions have fallen statewide, continued political mobilisation is needed so regional cities like Geelong receive sustained investment and policy attention—even as climate hazards worsen.³

By 2050, climate politics will increasingly drive local government strategies, influence election platforms, and reshape spending priorities in housing, health, and urban design.³

Regional adaptation must focus as much on “justice”—not just energy or emissions—as vulnerable communities will need the strongest protections.⁶

Cultural Impacts

Geelong’s unique coastal lifestyle is at risk, as cherished beach events, community sports, and outdoor festivals become more vulnerable to extreme weather.

Sea level rise will reshape the city’s foreshore, imposing costs on heritage conservation and requiring stronger community-led stewardship.²

Festivals and surf culture may see disruptions, forcing new traditions to form in response to unseasonable storms and heat.⁴

Climate change will redefine storytelling—artists, journalists, and educators in Geelong will help to forge new narratives of hope, resilience, and activism.⁵

Australian culture will increasingly measure itself not by the absence of disaster, but by the ingenuity shown to adapt and thrive under new climatic conditions.⁶

Weather and Hazards

By 2050, projections see Geelong’s annual temperature increasing up to 2°C above the historical mean, with a trend toward longer and more severe heatwaves.¹

Rainfall will likely decrease overall, with drier winters but potentially more extreme downpours producing flash floods.¹

Fire weather days will become more frequent, and bushfire risk will extend into months previously considered “safe”.¹

Sea level rise of at least 24cm is locked in for the Victorian coast; further increases are possible if emissions remain high.²

Extreme events—storms, heatwaves, floods—will become the “new normal,” demanding much more robust emergency planning and built environment adaptation.⁶

Contrasting Current and Future Action

Geelong in 2025 is mobilising fast—its sustainability strategy stresses urgent action and grassroots projects, aligning with statewide climate action plans.³

But many policies remain in early stages, including large-scale renewable uptake, circular economy infrastructure, and comprehensive resilient-city planning.³

To meet 2050’s challenge, Geelong will need to dramatically expand energy transition efforts, green its built environment, unroll nature-based solutions, and embed adaptive measures in transport, health, and public spaces.³

Inaction, or slow progress, will leave the city exposed to compound climate risks—from heat stress and power outages to ecological loss and culture shock.⁴

The window to secure a resilient, sustainable Geelong is closing fast, making every year’s action—and political courage—critical.

References

1. Climate Council: How hot will your neighbourhood be by 2050?
2. Climate Change in Australia: Victoria State Climate Statement
3. Victoria's climate action targets
4. Victoria's changing climate
5. Geelong Sustainability Strategy 2025 & Action Plan
6. Built Environment Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan (2022-2026)

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