03/11/2025

Vehicle-to-Grid Technology: How Electric Cars Can Help Fight Climate Change - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
  • Vehicle-to-Grid lets parked electric vehicles export electricity to the grid. [1]
  • V2G helps integrate variable renewables and reduce fossil backup generation. [2]
  • V2G supplies services such as peak-shaving and frequency regulation. [3]
  • Barriers include charger standards, market rules and battery life concerns. [4]
  • Australian pilots show practical benefits for households and the grid. [5]
  • Scaled V2G could turn millions of parked EVs into distributed storage. [6]

Electric vehicles are emerging as climate allies, feeding power back into the grid to cut emissions and support renewable energy.

Vehicle-to-grid or V2G is a technical and commercial approach that allows plug-in electric vehicles to supply power back to the electricity network when they are parked and plugged in. [1]

Most of the time, an average passenger vehicle is parked, which means its battery capacity is a largely untapped resource for the grid. [3]

Bidirectional chargers and supporting communications allow controlled two-way power flow between vehicle and grid in a V2G system. [8]

By aggregating many parked EVs, system operators can access distributed storage to smooth demand and absorb variable renewable generation. [2]

That smoothing reduces reliance on fossil-fuel peaking plants that otherwise run when renewable supply dips or demand spikes. [4]

In practical terms, V2G can provide services such as peak-shaving, valley-filling, emergency support and frequency regulation. [3]

Those grid services are the same sorts of value that stand-alone batteries and pumped hydro provide but distributed across many vehicles. [3]

When V2G displaces fossil-fuelled generation during high demand, the result is lower system emissions, supporting climate mitigation. [4]

V2G is therefore best understood as a tool that links two major decarbonisation pathways: electrifying transport and integrating renewables into electricity systems. [2]

How V2G Works

At the technical level, V2G requires a bidirectional inverter that can manage power flow from battery to grid and vice versa. [8]

Control software coordinates when vehicles should charge, discharge or remain idle according to market signals and owner preferences. [3]

Aggregators can combine many vehicles to offer services at a utility scale that a single vehicle could not provide on its own. [3]

Smart scheduling lets vehicles charge when solar generation is high and export during evening peaks, increasing renewable utilisation. [5]

Security and communications standards are essential to ensure safe operation and to protect against cyber risks as vehicles participate in markets. [11]

Climate Benefits and Emissions Impact

The principal climate benefit of V2G is enabling greater penetration of wind and solar by providing flexible demand and distributed storage. [2]

By using existing vehicle batteries, V2G can deliver storage capacity without the immediate need for new large-scale battery farms. [3]

That reduces the marginal need for fossil fuel peakers that run at high carbon intensity when renewables cannot meet demand. [4]

Empirical and modelling studies indicate V2G participation can lower system emissions when the electricity mix still contains fossil generation. [4]

The size of the emissions benefit depends on local generation mix, market design and how V2G charging is scheduled against renewable availability. [2]

Economic and Consumer Implications

V2G opens new income streams for EV owners who allow their batteries to be used for grid services during profitable periods. [5]

Aggregators and utilities must design remuneration that fairly compensates vehicle owners while keeping services affordable for networks. [12]

Households that pair rooftop solar with V2G can store midday solar energy in their car and export it during the evening peak. [5]

That combination increases self-consumption of low-carbon electricity and reduces reliance on the grid at expensive times. [5]

Technical and Regulatory Barriers

Standards for connectors, communications protocols and safety vary between regions and must be harmonised for scale. [4]

Concerns about accelerated battery degradation from additional cycling are common, though recent analyses suggest the effect can be modest under managed regimes. [8]

Regulators also need to decide how V2G revenues are treated in markets, and whether distribution networks should be compensated for additional flows. [7]

Without clear market rules and consumer protections, uptake will remain limited even where the technology exists. [4]

Evidence from Pilots and Early Deployments

Australian trials led by research agencies and utilities have demonstrated home V2G use with rooftop solar and commercial grid services. [5]

International projects including commercial fleets in Europe have shown real-world benefits in balancing local networks. [6]

These pilots show the technical concept is viable and that early business models can reward participants while aiding the grid. [6]

Systemic Risks and Lifecycle Thinking

To be climate-positive, V2G must be assessed across battery manufacture, in-service use and end-of-life recycling. [4]

If additional cycling shortens battery life substantially, the embodied emissions per service unit could erode benefits, which is why rigorous lifecycle studies are required. [8]

Designing V2G contracts that cap cycling and preserve battery health is one practical way to manage that risk. [3]

Policy and Market Pathways

Policymakers can accelerate V2G by clarifying market participation rules, enabling aggregator models and incentivising bidirectional hardware. [7]

Standards bodies and industry consortia must work quickly to avoid fragmentation that would slow adoption and increase costs. [4]

Networks can pilot targeted V2G programs in constrained areas to test benefits and refine regulatory approaches before wide rollout. [5]

Outlook and the Role in Climate Strategy

V2G will not by itself solve climate change, but it can be a material enabler of higher renewable penetration and lower power-sector emissions. [2]

As EV adoption rises, the potential aggregate storage represented by parked vehicles becomes large enough to influence system planning and investment decisions. [6]

To realise that potential requires coordinated action from vehicle makers, charger suppliers, grid operators, regulators, and consumers. [12]

When implemented responsibly, V2G complements other climate measures by making transport electrification an active contributor to a decarbonised power system. [2]

Summary

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G): This technology combats climate change and global warming primarily by enabling the widespread integration of renewable energy sources and enhancing grid stability, thereby reducing reliance on fossil fuels and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Integration of Renewable Energy: Solar and wind power are intermittent, meaning they only produce energy when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing, which creates instability in the energy system. V2G systems turn electric vehicles (EVs) into a vast, decentralised energy storage network ("batteries on wheels") that can store excess renewable energy when production is high and release it back to the grid when generation is low. This allows a higher proportion of clean energy to meet demand.

Grid Stabilisation: V2G-enabled EVs provide essential "ancillary services" to the grid, such as frequency and voltage regulation and provide spinning reserves. This helps balance supply and demand in real-time, reducing the risk of blackouts and the need for expensive, carbon-intensive "peaker" power plants that typically fire up to meet sudden spikes in demand.

Decarbonisation of the Transportation Sector: The technology supports the broader shift to electric mobility, a crucial step in reducing the significant GHG emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles. As the electricity grid itself becomes cleaner due to increased renewable energy, the environmental benefits of EVs (and V2G) grow.

Peak Load Management: EVs can be programmed to charge during off-peak hours (often at night when demand is low and electricity is cheaper) and discharge power during peak demand periods (typically in the morning and evening). This "peak shaving" and "valley filling" smooths out the overall load profile, making the energy system more efficient and reliable.

Reduced Infrastructure Costs: By leveraging the existing battery capacity in parked EVs, V2G can defer or eliminate the need for expensive new grid infrastructure upgrades or large stationary energy storage projects, thereby optimising the use of existing resources.

Emergency Power: V2G-capable vehicles can act as a reliable backup power source during power outages caused by extreme weather or grid failures, improving community resilience to climate change impacts.

In essence, V2G technology transforms EVs from passive energy consumers into active participants in a smart, sustainable energy ecosystem, accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels and directly mitigating global warming.

References

  1. Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G): Everything you need to know
  2. A comprehensive review of vehicle-to-grid integration in …
  3. Electric Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Technologies: Impact on the Power Grid and Battery
  4. Additional emissions of vehicle-to-grid technology …
  5. New study brings vehicle-to-grid technology a step closer in Australia
  6. Dutch car sharing firm adds Renault EVs capable of powering local grid
  7. Australia paves way for vehicle-to-grid charging by the end of the year
  8. Electric Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Technologies: Impact on the Power Grid and Battery
  9. Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G): Everything you need to know
  10. Data-Driven Assessment of Vehicle-to-Grid Capabilities in Supporting Grid During Emergencies: Case Study of Travis County, TX
  11. Automakers hope for a cut as two-way EV charging becomes real
  12. Vehicle-to-Grid Integration: Ensuring Grid Stability, Strengthening Cybersecurity, and Advancing Energy Market Dynamics 

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02/11/2025

Earth on Edge: 2025 Critical Climate Trends - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
  • 2025 is on track to be among the warmest years ever recorded[1]
  • Global climate-related health and mortality impacts are accelerating [2]
  • Investment flows hit record highs yet fossil-fuel financing persists [3]
  • Sea-level rise and extreme events increasingly threaten social, cultural and economic systems [4]
  • Transition risk and governance are emerging as major societal challenges [5]
  • Cultural and political momentum is shifting but still falls short of global targets [6]

Global climate change is accelerating across ecological, social, economic and political realms and it demands immediate, multi-level responses.

The year 2025 is shaping up to be among the warmest on record as the planet crosses key temperature thresholds. [1]

Human health outcomes are worsening as climate-driven hazards, exposures, and impacts increase globally. [2]

Massive investment in clean energy and climate finance is rising, yet emissions reductions and fossil-fuel support remain inconsistent. [3]

Coastal, cultural, and economic systems are facing rising sea levels, extreme weather and compound risks that challenge adaptation. [4]

Financial and governance systems are under growing strain from transition risks, stranded assets and regulatory uncertainty. [5]

Societal and cultural shifts towards climate action are gaining ground, but still lag the scale required to meet global goals. [6]

Across all sectors, the interconnections of ecological, economic, political and cultural change underscore the crisis of climate change. [1][2][3][4][5][6]

In Australia and globally, these trends signal that incremental action is no longer sufficient and that transformative responses are now required. [4][5][6]

The following article explores five major developments and trends in climate change and global warming as of 2025, covering social, ecological, economic, political and cultural dimensions.

1. Global Temperature Milestones and Ecological Stress

The global average surface temperature in 2025 is projected to rank as the second or third highest on record. [1]

According to Carbon Brief analysis, the chance of 2025 exceeding 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels in a single year is less than 10 per cent, but long-term warming continues upward. [1]

Meanwhile, in Australia the State of the Climate Report 2024 confirms increased extreme heat events, longer fire seasons, heavier rainfall and sea-level rise. [4]

These warming trends are triggering ecological stress such as the ongoing global coral bleaching event that affects the majority of reef systems. [6]

The ecological consequences extend beyond immediate systems into cascading effects on biodiversity, livelihoods, and cultural heritage. [4]

2. Human Health, Social Justice and Climate Impacts

The Lancet Countdown 2025 Report finds that millions of people die needlessly each year due to fossil-fuel dependence and climate-driven risks. [2]

Heat-related deaths have risen by around 23 per cent since the 1990s, reaching an estimated 546,000 annual fatalities globally. [2]

The interplay of health, climate and socioeconomic disadvantage is intensifying, with low-income and marginalised communities bearing disproportionate burdens. [2]

This social justice dimension means climate adaptation and mitigation must integrate public health, equity and cultural resilience, not just emission reduction. [6]

3. Investment, Economy and Transition Finance

Global climate finance flows reached USD $1.9 trillion in 2023, growing around 26 per cent annually between 2021–2023, according to the Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025. [3]

Investment in the energy transition exceeded USD $2 trillion in 2024, with major allocations to renewables, electrified transport and grids. [3]

Yet banks and financial institutions simultaneously devoted USD $869 billion to fossil-fuel firms in 2024, a sharp contradiction in the financing landscape. [3]

As economies shift away from carbon-intensive systems, transition risk - stranded assets, regulatory changes and market disruption - has become a major economic threat. [5]

For Australia, modelling signals that a disorderly transition could reduce living standards and job prospects if action stalls. [3]

4. Social, Cultural and Ecological Vulnerabilities

Sea-level rise and extreme events are placing a strong burden on coastal and cultural communities, especially Indigenous and low-income populations. [4]

The intersection of ecological change with social and cultural systems means climate impact is not only physical but also relational, threatening heritage, connection to Country and community identity. [6]

Australia’s unique ecosystems, including the Torres Strait Islands and Great Barrier Reef, are emphasising vulnerability to warming and sea-level rise. [4]

This synergy of climate stressors means adaptation must span infrastructure, social systems and cultural resilience, not just technical fixes. [6]

5. Governance, Politics and the Tipping-Point Danger

Governance systems are showing signs of stress as the pace of climate change outstrips policy responses and institutions struggle to keep up. [5]

The risk of crossing tipping points in Earth systems is rising, meaning thresholds beyond which change becomes self-amplifying and effectively irreversible. [1][4]

The Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is increasingly under threat given present trajectory and insufficient global commitments. [1]

At the same time, cultural and political mobilisation is growing: youth movements, Indigenous stewardship, and grassroots climate justice efforts are gaining voice but must scale faster. [6]

Conclusion

The developments above demonstrate that climate change is no longer a single issue but a polycrisis—entwined across ecology, economy, society, culture and politics.

Each of the five arenas described - ecological thresholds, human health, finance and economy, cultural-social vulnerability, governance and tipping points - is interconnected and reinforcing.

For Australia this means building responses that integrate emission reduction, adaptation, equity, finance and cultural resilience.

The window for incremental change is closing; the unaddressed legacy of warming and the inertia in systems mean adaptation and transformative action must proceed now.

From local community planning to national policy and international cooperation, climate action must become systemic, rapid and socially inclusive.

In short, the world must not only reduce greenhouse gases but build resilient and equitable societies that can thrive through change.

References

  1. State of the climate: 2025 on track to be second or third warmest year on record (Carbon Brief)
  2. The 2025 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change: Climate change action offers a lifeline
  3. Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (Climate Policy Initiative)
  4. State of the Climate 2024 (CSIRO Australia)
  5. FSB Roadmap for Addressing Financial Risks from Climate Change 2025 (Financial Stability Board)
  6. A path to mobilising $1.3 trillion in climate finance for developing countries (E3G, June 2025)

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01/11/2025

‘Hurtling towards climate chaos’: Feedback loops are accelerating global heating - The Age

The Age Caitlin Fitzsimmons , Nick O'Malley
Clarence River flood, March 2025
The Clarence River flood in northern NSW in March 2025. Credit: Louise Kennerley

Planetary heating is accelerating because of dangerous feedback loops which are already contributing to global instability, top climate scientists write in the seventh annual State of the Climate report, while the most effective levers to avert catastrophe include deploying renewable energy, protecting forests and improving farming practices.

“We are hurtling toward climate chaos,” say the opening lines of the paper published in BioScience on Thursday. “The planet’s vital signs are flashing red. The consequences of human-driven alterations of the climate are no longer future threats but are here now.”


Listen to this article 7 min

A collaboration by climate scientists from North America, South America, Europe, Asia and Australia, the paper notes that 2024 set a new average global surface temperature record and was probably the hottest in 125,000 years based on the glacial record.

This was driven by ecological overshoot from human activity, with population, livestock, meat consumption, gross domestic product and fossil fuel energy consumption all at record highs, the paper says, noting an extra 1.3 million humans and 500,000 cattle or other ruminants join the planet every week.

Combined solar and wind consumption also set a record, but was 31 times lower than fossil fuel energy consumption. Coal, oil and gas were all at peak levels last year.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide is at a record level so far this year, probably worsened by a sudden drop in land carbon uptake partly due to intense forest fires including in Canada, Europe, China and the Amazon. Global fire-related tree cover loss reached an all-time high, with fires in tropical primary forest up 370 per cent over 2023, fuelling rising emissions and biodiversity loss.

So far in 2025, Greenland and Antarctic ice mass are at record lows, and the paper notes that Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets may be passing tipping points, potentially committing the planet to metres of sea-level rise.

Contributing author Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a professor of climate science in the Fenner School of Environment and Society at the Australian National University, said the report added to the “overwhelming evidence that climate change is accelerating” because of the amount of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere as well as new emissions.

The report comes as Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, who has funded climate action through his philanthropic work, wrote a post rejecting a “doomsday view of climate change” and argued for human welfare to be at the centre of climate strategies.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick said communicating climate science was a difficult balance.

“We do have to be careful of not being alarmist. Otherwise, it just immobilises people – they get so scared and so overwhelmed by the whole situation that they’re not going to do anything,” she said.

“We’ve also got to be honest and realistic – we’re not doing enough to reduce our emissions, even in Australia where we’ve got net zero targets by 2050 … let alone in the US, where it’s a dumpster fire.”

The paper identifies which climate solutions would have the greatest impact, based on analysis of global data from US-based non-profit Project Drawdown. Solar energy was at the top, followed by reduced conversion of forests and other ecosystems, wind energy and carbon sequestration in agriculture.

The 43 solutions, which also include a suggestion to encourage plant-based diets, collectively could account for more than half the mitigation needed to limit warming to the Paris Agreement target of no more than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, rather than the 2.7-degree rise the planet is on track to reach by 2100 under current policies.

The Climate Council warned on Wednesday that any deal between the Albanese government and the Coalition on national environment law reform was risky given that the opposition was debating whether to oppose the net zero target.

“Partnering with a party still struggling with climate denial would be a dangerous bet with Australia’s future,” said Climate Council chief executive Amanda McKenzie in a statement.

Climate Council analysis suggests that abandoning net zero, as advocated by some members of the Coalition, could unleash 6.3 billion tonnes of climate pollution and align with 3 degrees of global heating.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick said global heating was accelerating because of feedback loops – “where an event happens, and then it starts a chain of events that amplifies that first effect”.

“For example, we’re having more carbon [dioxide] in the atmosphere and that’s warming the planet,” she said. “That’s causing the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice to melt, and because it’s exposing darker ocean, this absorbs more heat, amplifying the original warming that happened in the first place.”

The oceanic heat also devastated marine ecosystems that were not equipped to deal with hotter water.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick said the atmospheric temperature was rising as a global average, but it was faster over land than sea and big continental land masses in the northern hemisphere were copping it worst, with deadly heatwaves and forest fires.

“Australia’s average temperature is rising a bit faster than average, but we’re not as bad as southern Europe, which is warming twice as fast as the global average, or some parts in the Arctic that are warming three times faster,” she said.

A separate paper collating research on the health impacts of pollution, disease and heat, published by the medical journal The Lancet on Wednesday, reported that deaths caused by global warming have increased by 23 per cent to 546,000 since 1990.

Australians, on average, endured 8.1 heatwave days in 2024, with 5.4 of these directly attributable to climate change, contributing to deaths, heat stress and lost labour hours.

The annual number of deaths linked to heat in Australia surged by 44 per cent from the 1990–1999 decade to the 2012–2021 decade after adjusting for the increased total deaths from population growth.

Globally, 2.5 million deaths every year are caused by fossil-fuel air pollution, while governments collectively spent US $956 billion (A $1.45 trillion) on fossil-fuel subsidies in 2023.

The COP30 Presidency last week called for countries to “consider adaptation as the next step in human evolution”. 

References

  1. World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2025 — BioScience
  2. Change Course Now: Humanity Has Missed the 1.5°C Target, Says UN Head — The Guardian
  3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Synthesis Report
  4. Australia’s Rising Heat Deaths and Health Impacts — Climate Council Report 2025
  5. Feedback Loops and the Acceleration of Global Warming — Nature Climate Change
  6. The 2025 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change
  7. Project Drawdown: The Most Effective Climate Solutions
  8. Without Adaptation, Climate Change Becomes a Multiplier of Poverty — COP30 Presidency

31/10/2025

‘Change course now’: humanity has missed 1.5C climate target, says UN head - The Guardian

The Guardian 

Exclusive: ‘Devastating consequences’ now inevitable
but emissions cuts still vital 
says António Guterres in sole interview before Cop30

A flooded village in Kiribati
A flooded village in the low-lying island nation of Kiribati. The UN secretary general says Indigenous communities
must be better represented at Cop climate summits.
 Photograph: Jonas Gratzer/LightRocket/Getty Images

Humanity has failed to limit global heating to 1.5C and must change course immediately, the secretary general of the UN has warned.

In his only interview before next month’s Cop30 climate summit, António Guterres acknowledged it is now “inevitable” that humanity will overshoot the target in the Paris climate agreement, with “devastating consequences” for the world.

He urged the leaders who will gather in the Brazilian rainforest city of Belém to realise that the longer they delay cutting emissions, the greater the danger of passing catastrophic “tipping points” in the Amazon, the Arctic and the oceans.

UN chief António Guterres: 'We don't want to see the Amazon become a savannah' - video

“Let’s recognise our failure,” he told the Guardian and Amazon-based news organisation Sumaúma. “The truth is that we have failed to avoid an overshooting above 1.5C in the next few years. And that going above 1.5C has devastating consequences. Some of these devastating consequences are tipping points, be it in the Amazon, be it in Greenland, or western Antarctica or the coral reefs.

He said the priority at Cop30 was to shift direction: “It is absolutely indispensable to change course in order to make sure that the overshoot is as short as possible and as low in intensity as possible to avoid tipping points like the Amazon. We don’t want to see the Amazon as a savannah. But that is a real risk if we don’t change course and if we don’t make a dramatic decrease of emissions as soon as possible.”

The planet’s past 10 years have been the hottest in recorded history. Despite growing scientific alarm at the speed of global temperature increases caused by the burning of fossil fuels – oil, coal and gas – the secretary general said government commitments have come up short.

Fewer than a third of the world’s nations (62 out of 197) have sent in their climate action plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement. The US under Donald Trump has abandoned the process. Europe has promised but so far failed to deliver. China, the world’s biggest emitter, has been accused of undercommitting.

António Guterres at Cop29
António Guterres giving his speech at Cop29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November 2024.
Photograph: Anatoly Maltsev/EPA

Guterres said the lack of NDC ambition means the Paris goal of 1.5C will be breached, at least temporarily: “From those [NDCs] received until now, there is an expectation of a reduction of emissions of 10%. We would need 60% [to stay within 1.5C]. So overshooting is now inevitable.”

He did not give up on the target though, and said it may still be possible to temporarily overshoot and then bring temperatures down in time to return to 1.5C by the end of the century, but this would require a change of direction at and beyond Cop30.

He called for governments to rebalance representation at Cops so that civil society groups, particularly from Indigenous communities, will have a greater presence and influence than people paid by corporations.

“We all know what the lobbyists want,” he said. “It’s to increase their profits, with the price being paid by humankind.”

He said a transition away from fossil fuels was a matter of economic self-interest, because it was clear that the era of fossil fuels was coming to an end: “We are seeing a renewables revolution and the transition will inevitably accelerate and there will be no way in which humankind will be able to use all the oil and gas already discovered,” he said.

Asked if he had raised this with the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whose government has just given the green light for oil exploration near the mouth of the Amazon, he said: “Not yet. I’ll take advantage of the Cop [to do this].”

One of Brazil’s initiatives at Cop30 will be the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, which aims to raise $125bn for the protection of standing forests. A fifth of any money disbursed will go directly to Indigenous communities, whose territories contain most of the best-preserved biodiversity and most effective carbon sinks.

On several occasions, Guterres stressed the essential importance of Indigenous voices at Cop30. The UN said this was the first time the secretary general had given an exclusive interview to a journalist from an Indigenous community, Wajã Xipai, a Sumaúma reporter from the Xipai people who was joined by the Guardian.

“It is fundamental to invest in those who are the best guardians of nature. And the best guardians of nature are precisely the Indigenous communities,” Guterres said.

World leaders should also be schooled by Indigenous peoples in how to achieve a balance with nature, the secretary general said. 

“Political leaders are often more concerned with the day-to-day problems of society, especially at times when the economic situation is complex and aggravated by climate change, by disasters, by catastrophes. So sometimes there is no notion of the importance of a harmonious relationship with nature and therefore it is necessary to permanently maintain a pedagogy with the political leaders, and there is no one better than the Indigenous communities to do this pedagogy,” he said

Despite growing pressure on the Cop system of global environmental governance, Guterres said it played a crucial role.

“The alternative is a free-for-all,” he said. “And we know what free for all means. Free for all means that there will be a small privileged elite, people and companies that will be able to always protect themselves, even if disasters will spread. Floods will spread, communities will be destroyed, but there will always be a group of rich people and rich companies that will be able to protect themselves as the planet is being progressively destroyed.”

Next year will be Guterres’s last as secretary general. Looking back on his nine years in the post, he said he wished he had focused on climate and nature earlier, though it was now a priority. 

He said: “I will never give up on my commitment to climate action, on my commitment to biodiversity, on my commitment to the protection of nature, on my commitment to help and support all the democratic movements that around the world are fighting and fighting hard to preserve the most precious possession that we have, which is our mother nature.”

Links 

30/10/2025

A Planet Under Pressure: New Data Shows the Climate Emergency Deepening in 2025 - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
  • September 2025 ranked the third-warmest on record globally for both land and sea surface temperatures. [1]
  • Temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels for the next five years, with a substantial chance of exceeding 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. [2]
  • New national climate plans (NDCs) show emissions may begin to decline over the coming decade but still fall far short of what is needed to hit the 1.5 °C target. [3]
  • Only about one-third of national climate pledges explicitly support a transition away from fossil fuels. [4]
  • Australia’s 2035 climate target has drawn criticism as being insufficient despite new ambitions. [5]
  • The world remains “off-track” to meet the 2035 emissions reductions required under the Paris Agreement pathway for 1.5 °C. [6]

Global temperatures continue to rise, and the planet faces an urgent climate crisis.

September 2025 ranked as the third-warmest month globally for land and ocean surface temperatures. [1]

Greenhouse-gas accumulation continues to drive unusual heat patterns worldwide. [1]

Sea-surface temperatures remain near record highs, stressing marine ecosystems. [1]

Long-term forecasts predict that global temperatures between 2025 and 2029 will likely exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. [2]

There is a high probability that at least one year in the next five will set new temperature records. [2]

National climate plans show the potential for declining emissions, but current commitments fall far short of limiting warming to 1.5 °C. [3]

Only a third of countries explicitly support a shift away from fossil fuels in their pledges. [4]

The Paris Agreement goals remain at risk unless stronger and faster action is taken globally. [6]

These trends underline the urgency for governments, industry, and civil society to accelerate mitigation and adaptation measures worldwide. [6]

Humanity has entered a high-stakes decade where delayed action could lock in devastating warming and irreversible climate impacts. [2]

Global Temperatures: A Stark Signal

September 2025 was the third-warmest September on record, with both land and sea surface temperatures continuing at unusually high levels, according to recent data. [1]

The Copernicus Climate Change Service reports that global surface air temperatures for September were approximately 0.66 °C above the 1991–2020 monthly average and about 1.47 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline. [1]

Sea-surface temperatures averaged near 20.72 °C for the month, ranking among the highest ever recorded for September and reflecting widespread marine heat stress. [1]

These persistently high temperatures across both land and ocean point to the continuing influence of greenhouse-gas accumulation in the atmosphere. [1]

Warming oceans can fuel marine heatwaves, reduce carbon absorption and amplify extreme weather risks. [1]

Outlook For The Next Five Years

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) projects that average global temperatures between 2025 and 2029 are likely to be 1.2–1.9 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. [2]

There is an 80 % chance that at least one year in that period will exceed the warmest year on record so far, and an 86 % chance that one year will exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. [2]

The WMO notes a roughly 70 % chance that the five-year average warming over 2025–29 will exceed 1.5 °C. [2]

While the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C limit refers to multi-decadal averages, these forecasts show the narrowing window for keeping warming below that threshold. [2]

Arctic regions continue to warm much faster than the global average, increasing risks of ice melt, sea-level rise and permafrost thaw. [2]

National Climate Plans: Progress, But Insufficient

The latest UNFCCC assessment shows that if countries meet their current climate plans, global emissions may start to decline this decade—for the first time in modern history. [3]

Emissions could fall around 10 % by 2035 compared with 2019 levels, but that remains far short of the 60 % reduction needed to limit warming to 1.5 °C. [3]

Only one-third of national climate plans explicitly commit to a transition away from fossil fuels. [4]

Some countries are still expanding fossil-fuel production, locking in long-lived carbon-intensive infrastructure. [4]

Australia’s Position & Global Implications

Australia’s proposed 2035 target aims for a 62–70 % reduction in emissions from 2005 levels, but experts warn this ambition may be insufficient. [5]

Critics argue Australia lacks a defined renewables share target despite projections showing over 90 % renewables may be required. [5]

Many major economies are similarly delaying or weakening mid-century climate targets, heightening risks of stranded assets and delayed adaptation. [6]

Impacts & Amplifying Risks

High global temperatures are driving more frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, floods and coral bleaching events. [1]

Marine heatwaves are stressing ocean ecosystems and reducing the ocean’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide. [1]

Climate models warn that each additional degree of warming increases the risk of triggering major tipping points such as ice-sheet collapse or permafrost thaw. [2]

What Needs To Happen Now

Countries must not only update their commitments but implement them rapidly across energy, transport, land and industry sectors. [3]

Accelerating investment in renewable energy, electrification, energy efficiency and storage will be critical. [4]

Adaptation must also scale up to protect vulnerable populations, infrastructure and ecosystems. [1]

Whether the 2020s become a turning point or a lost decade will depend on global cooperation and domestic follow-through. [6]

Conclusion

September’s record-level heat and multi-year forecasts of sustained warming underline that the world remains off-track. [1] [2] [3]

In Australia and beyond, raising ambition and embedding delivery into policy are essential. [5] [6]

The message from scientists and agencies is clear: the signals are flashing red, and the time for action is now.

References

  1. September Sees Persistently High Land and Sea Surface Temperatures Globally
  2. Global Climate Predictions Show Temperatures Expected to Remain at or Near Record Levels in the Next Five Years
  3. Countries’ New Climate Plans to Start Cutting Global Emissions, UN Says
  4. Only a Third of National Climate Pledges Support Transition Away from Fossil Fuels
  5. Australia’s 2035 Climate Target Will Strike a Middle Path: Will It Be Sufficient?
  6. Nations Must Close Huge Emissions Gap in New Climate Pledges and Deliver Immediate Action, or 1.5 °C Lost

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29/10/2025

Has climate policy peaked? The rise and fall of a political cause - The Mandarin

The Mandarin - David Stadelmann    Benno Torgler

Big promises are fading.
Adaptation, proven tech, and smarter climate change policies
are taking centre stage in Australia.

Environment Minister Murray WattEnvironment Minister Murray Watt. (AAP Image/Fraser Barton)
Authors

David Stadelmann
is a professor of economics at the University of Bayreuth, Germany; a senior fellow at the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy; a fellow at the Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts; a fellow at the ARC Training Centre for Behavioural Insights for Technology Adoption; a fellow at the Ostrom Workshop, Indiana University; and a member of the Walter Eucken Institute. 

Benno Torgler is a professor of economics at the School of Economics and Finance, QUT, and the Director of the ARC Training Centre for Behavioural Insights for Technology Adoption. He is also a senior fellow at the Institute for Swiss Economic Policy, a fellow at the Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts, and a fellow of the CESifo Research Network and the Global Labor Organization.

Australia has long been a proving ground for climate policy.

Governments have announced ambitious targets, introduced complex regulatory schemes, and committed substantial subsidies to renewable energy. Outcomes, however, are mixed. 

Australia remains one of the world’s largest coal exporters. Although coal-fired generation is declining, the pace of the transition to wind, solar, and storage has been slower than anticipated, and the rollout of electricity generation and transmission infrastructure is struggling to meet the 2030 target.

Debates intensified with the release of the National Climate Risk Assessment in 2025, presented as a sober appraisal of future risks. 

However, critics argued that the report relies on implausible scenarios of runaway coal use and global population growth, citing disaster cost projections attributed to climate change, even though an underlying review links rising losses primarily to increased population and property exposure rather than Australian CO₂ emissions. 

Such framing may generate headlines but risks undermining credibility and the international collaboration that effective climate policy would require.

Climate protection is the textbook case of a global public good: non-rivalry and non-excludability create strong incentives to free ride, leading to suboptimal collective outcomes. 

Unilateral Australian policies and actions have negligible direct effects on global temperatures; their value rests largely on demonstration, technology development, and diplomatic leverage rather than on measurable climate impacts per se. 

Countries and individuals who cut emissions bear the costs themselves, while the benefits are distributed worldwide. The incentives for any one country to act independently and substantially are therefore weak. Citizens care less about the global average temperature than about the local consequences — what they experience in their own environment.

Although international agreements could, in theory, solve this dilemma, in practice, they have so far failed to deliver fully. Many signatory states are authoritarian or unwilling to implement costly treaties. Democratic countries also retreat when domestic costs bite, as the United States did when it temporarily withdrew from the Paris Agreement under President Trump.

Behavioural and political economy considerations

There is evidence that 'peak climate policy' may already have passed in many jurisdictions, and Australia may not be an exception. A behavioural economics and political economy lens helps explain why enthusiasm is cooling after years of moralised rhetoric about existential risk. Governments and voters now confront high fiscal costs, limited near-term climate benefits, and costly economic distortions created by complex policy instruments. 

As competing priorities — defence, pensions, infrastructure — press on limited budgets, grand narratives are giving way to more modest, pragmatic debate. Two questions follow: how climate policy rose to public prominence, and why doubts are now growing.

How climate policy rose to the top

Until recently, climate protection dominated public discourse around the world and particularly in Europe. National politicians and representatives of the United Nations warned of an 'existential threat' and 'the greatest challenge in human history'. Yet, despite the warnings and massive climate protests, fossil fuel use, global greenhouse gas emissions, and average temperatures continue to rise. By contrast, climate protests have dwindled, if not disappeared; only media attention to 'climate catastrophes' has not yet waned.

In the 1990s, it seemed unlikely that climate protection would become a guiding political theme. Reducing CO₂ emissions and other greenhouse gases imposes immediate costs, while the benefits are distant and uncertain. Politics and society generally prefer the opposite: benefits first, costs later. Despite these obstacles, climate protection became a dominant political cause, influencing elections and mobilising the streets. 

Modern politics, combined with behavioural economics, helps explain why: the harder a problem is to solve and the longer it persists, the more it lends itself to being a political and moral topic. Thus, climate protection became a business and climate change offered opportunities for spending, regulation and posture, with limited accountability for results. Six mechanisms were central.

  1. Expressive behaviour. Because one nation’s contribution to emissions hardly matters for climate change, the effectiveness of its emissions reduction policies is almost irrelevant. Public discourse thus revolved not around efficiency but around climate change as a moral issue. Governments pledged long-term 'net zero' targets decades away, while the true costs would fall on future administrations. 
    Symbolism, not substance, often dominated. In Australia, periodic ratcheting of targets fits this pattern. The latest goal — cutting emissions by 62–70% below 2005 levels by 2035 — may prove overly ambitious. Emissions are currently about 28% below 2005 levels, with only modest progress in recent years. Critical assessments have followed.
  2. Beneficiaries in politics. Politicians who championed climate policy early gained moral authority and media dominance. Criticism was often dismissed as immoral or 'anti-science', even though it was clear from the start that climate protection could only work globally, not merely nationally. At the same time, subsidies and levies expanded government revenue and offered room for patronage. Climate protection became a platform for redistribution and client politics.
  3. New sources of money. Early climate measures and promises created immediate business opportunities. It is estimated that the electricity sector would require substantial capital investment to cover essential electricity infrastructure by 2050. Subsidies for wind and solar, along with government contracts, fuelled new industries that profited from the money. 
    Other companies thrived on selling 'sustainable' products, consulting and certification services. Australia’s renewable energy subsidies have produced fortunes for a few, while leaving ordinary households with mounting bills.
  4. Bureaucracy loves regulation. Each new climate initiative generated tasks for departments, agencies and regulators. As mandates and compliance regimes multiplied, Australia’s dual layers of Commonwealth and state authority made duplication and jurisdictional overlap more likely, driving up administrative complexity and costs.
  5. Scapegoating. Climate change provided a convenient excuse for national policy failures. Following floods or bushfires, leaders often face pressure to 'do something', a classic action bias in behavioural economics, and the attribution question — 'was this climate change?' — can crowd out harder discussions about planning, land use and hazard management. In Australia, national leaders faced backlash during the 2019 bushfire crisis for declining to engage substantively with climate questions.
  6. Passing on costs. Climate-related regulations raised costs for companies, but because their competitors nationally and in several Western countries faced similar regulations, those costs were often passed on to consumers. In some cases, firms profited. Australia’s Safeguard Mechanism and renewable obligations can produce analogous dynamics where consumers shoulder costs and industries find ways to profit.

The turn: Why climate policy is losing steam

Now, however, the underlying economic logic is reasserting itself: genuine climate protection to reduce global warming would require effective global cooperation. But this global cooperation has failed to materialise in practice, even though many climate treaties have been signed and numerous climate conferences have been held. 

After years of political grandstanding, ambitious policy targets, and vast amounts of subsidies, the climate issue is now losing its appeal. Six developments explain why 'peak climate policy' has likely already passed.

  1. The return to cost-benefit realism. More than 30 years after the Kyoto Protocol, politically set climate targets are drawing nearer, and the costs of compliance are rising rapidly. Moralising slogans are giving way to more sober cost-benefit analysis. Many citizens are noticing how inefficient and expensive past strategies have been and how little they have contributed to slowing climate change.
  2. Competition from other pressing issues. As the climate discourse loses its 'monopoly' in public debate, other priorities take centre stage: ageing populations, pension security, and defence spending in an unstable geopolitical world. In Australia, billions for renewable subsidies will compete with other funding such as defence. The war in Ukraine has shifted political and public opinion to view defence as, in the short run, a larger priority than climate change.
  3. Everything is relative. Climate damages can look frightening in absolute terms. But relative to growing economic output, they are relatively modest. Sound economic policy that generates decent growth rates has the potential to offset much of the negative impact of climate change. Recent evidence reports an environmental-Kuznets-type pattern: as incomes rise, environmental pressures tend to intensify initially and then diminish.
  4. A change of perspective. Knowledge about climate change and climate science has advanced. People recognise that the 1.5°C 'target' of the Paris Agreement is increasingly difficult; it has always been challenging from a socio-economic perspective. They also understand that today’s especially rich societies have far greater capacity to cope with change than in 1850.
  5. Adaptation instead of prevention. Since large-scale global emissions cuts remain unlikely in the near future, adaptation is moving to the forefront of the debate. Unlike distant promises of prevention, adaptation delivers immediate, tangible benefits. Investments in infrastructure, cooling technologies, water management, and urban design are visible, practical, and often cost effective. 
    In Australia, measures such as risk-appropriate zoning, fuel management, and improved land use likely deliver greater near-term payoff than symbolic targets.
  6. Climate technologies. New approaches, such as carbon removal or geo-engineering (for example, enhanced weathering), are drawing growing attention. Their complexity brings 'known unknowns', such as potential effects on the global water cycle and other Earth-system feedbacks, but support for model-based research and robust governance frameworks is increasing. 
    Politically, the prospect of technological breakthroughs can be attractive because it signals progress without immediate economy-wide sacrifices.

Toward rational policy

Thus, global climate protection, until recently cast as humanity’s defining task, is increasingly giving way to approaches that are more realistic, tangible, and enforceable. The key question is whether a better economic design is available.

The answer proposed is efficient cost transparency. Every country could adopt a universal CO₂ price. Such a mechanism would create the right incentives for producers and consumers without relying on subsidies, mandates, or complex regulations. Revenues could be returned to citizens, for example via tax reductions on labour or consumption. 

This approach would be more efficient and more socially acceptable. The burden of a universal carbon price would be far lower than today’s labyrinth of subsidies and levies. Internationally, a simple and universal mechanism offers the best chance for effective cooperation.

Yet a CO₂ price that displaces subsidies and regulations deprives politicians, bureaucrats, and favoured industries of their privileges. The welfare-enhancing path remains blocked — not by economic logic, but by political incentives.

A mature approach

Climate change is real. But the politics of climate change — often marked by apocalyptic rhetoric, moral posturing, and costly symbolism — appears to have peaked. The experiences show both zeal and flaws: contested projections, generous subsidies, and rising household costs. Around the world, voters are beginning to ask harder questions, weighing real trade-offs, and prioritising issues closer to home.

What lies ahead is not the end of climate policy, but its transformation: fewer exaggerations and grand promises, more emphasis on adaptation and proven technologies, and potentially a shift toward economic and behavioural rationality via transparent, economy-wide pricing of emissions. 

Welcoming this shift is not cynicism; it is policy maturity — the recognition that effective climate action is less about headlines and more about solving problems efficiently, transparently and fairly.

Links

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28/10/2025

Australia’s Climate Crossroads: Building a Just and Resilient Future - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
  • Australia must pair decarbonisation with adaptation to build resilience across ecologies and communities[1]
  • The economic transition must protect jobs and regions reliant on high-emission industries[2]
  • Vulnerable and Indigenous communities require tailored support and culturally safe decision-making[3]
  • Ecological systems need legal reform, nature-positive targets and stronger biodiversity protection[4]
  • Political and community engagement are essential to ensure legitimacy and equitable outcomes[5]
  • Australia’s global standing depends on aligning climate policy with credible targets, law reform and regional leadership[6]

Australia stands at a pivotal moment to adapt to and mitigate worsening climate impacts while transforming its economy and protecting its people.

The nation must respond to intensifying climate change by simultaneously managing risks, cutting emissions and ensuring no community is left behind.[1]

Australia's economic structure needs to shift away from fossil-fuel dependence towards clean industries while safeguarding jobs and regional economies.[2]

Communities most vulnerable, particularly Indigenous peoples and those in remote or low-income areas, must be central to adaptation planning and support.[3]

Australia’s unique ecology and biodiversity face severe strain from climate stress and require legal and institutional reform to bolster protection.[4]

Cultural impacts, from loss of Indigenous heritage to community disruption, must be addressed through inclusive policy and law reform.[3]

Broad political debate and genuine community action are critical for legitimacy, fairness, and effective implementation of climate strategies.[5]

Laws need reform to embed nature-positive goals, strengthen climate accountability, and foster equitable outcomes.[4]

Australia’s global standing depends on aligning climate ambitions with credible targets, regional partnerships, and leadership in clean growth.[6]

The path ahead demands an integrated, just, and multi-layered strategy spanning economy, society, ecology, culture, and governance.

1. Transitioning the Economy

Australia is committed to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions by 43 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 and reaching net-zero by 2050.[2]

The federal budget outlines multi-billion-dollar investments in clean energy infrastructure, electrification, and industrial transformation to support this shift.[2]

A successful transition will require retraining programs, regional economic diversification, and support for communities currently dependent on coal, gas, and high-emission industries.

Equally, adaptation investments for infrastructure, resilient design, and risk management must go in parallel with mitigation measures to avoid locking vulnerable sectors into future hardship.[1]

This dual strategy ensures the economy can both adapt to inevitable climate impacts and create new growth in emerging green industries.

2. Protecting Vulnerable Communities

The health, well-being, and livelihoods of Australians are already under pressure from heatwaves, floods, bushfires, and droughts linked to climate change.[3]

Australia’s national adaptation framework emphasises social, economic, and built and natural domains, and recognises that adaptation is a shared responsibility across governments, businesses, and communities.[5]

Indigenous peoples face disproportionate risks due to historical, cultural, and geographic factors and require governance models aligned with their own values and knowledge systems.[7]

To protect the most vulnerable, policy must include targeted funding, insurance reform, climate risk disclosure, home upgrades for low-income households, and equitable infrastructure planning.[5]

Without such tailored actions, adaptation may reinforce existing social inequalities rather than improving them.

3. Safeguarding Ecology

The latest assessment of Australia shows ecosystems have already crossed critical thresholds of irreversible harm in some cases and that biodiversity loss is accelerating.[7]

Ecological resilience depends on restoring healthy habitat, managing invasive species, protecting water systems, and embedding nature-positive targets in law and policy.[4]

Reforming key legislation such as the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999, strengthening land-use regulation and establishing mandatory biodiversity targets will be essential for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.[4]

Nature-based solutions, such as restoring wetlands, regenerating forests, and re-establishing Indigenous land-care practices, can isolate carbon and build ecological resilience.[7]

Australia must align its ecological protection with its emissions reduction and adaptation frameworks to ensure the natural systems that support human and cultural well-being are preserved.[1]

4. Cultural Impacts and Indigenous Leadership

Climate change threatens cultural heritage, Indigenous knowledge systems and the connection of First Nations peoples to land, sea and community.[7]

The IPCC notes that for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples of Australia, climate change worsens longstanding inequalities and impacts cultural well-being and governance networks.[7]

Policies must incorporate Indigenous leadership, co-design of adaptation programs, recognise ongoing custodianship and safe participation in decision-making.[3]

Cultural resilience is intertwined with ecological and social resilience and cannot be treated as an optional extra in climate strategy.[7]

Failure to integrate cultural perspectives risks eroding rights, identity, and long-term community stability.[7]

5. Political Debate and Community Action

Effective climate action relies on democratic legitimacy, informed public debate, and widespread community engagement.[5]

Yet recent analysis shows adaptation is undervalued in electoral discussion and suffers from institutional inertia and short-termism.[5]

To bolster legitimacy, governments must provide transparent risk assessments, decentralised decision-making, local community funding, and structured opportunities for civic participation.[1]

Community-led initiatives, from local renewable cooperatives to neighbourhood resilience hubs, give practical meaning to adaptation and mitigation policy.[5]

Encouraging grassroots action not only builds resilience but also helps embed climate literacy and social cohesion essential for fair transitions.[1]

6. Law Reform, Governance and Global Standing

Australia has recently adopted the Climate Change Act 2022 which sets out binding emissions targets, annual climate statements and a legislative basis for oversight and future review.[4]

The federal government’s adaptation strategy outlines seven systems, including economy, infrastructure, natural environment, health, communities, food, and security, to frame comprehensive action across policy domains.[10]

Legal reform should extend to embedding adaptation obligations in law, enabling climate reparations and giving communities legal recourse for climate harm.[8]

In an international context, Australia’s credibility depends on aligning policy with science-based targets, honouring regional commitments, particularly in the Pacific, and demonstrating leadership in clean-energy export and climate resilience.[6]

Failing to reform governance and law risks undermining global standing, trade relationships, and Australia’s ability to shape 21st-century green market opportunities.[6]

Conclusion

Australia’s challenge is multi-dimensional but also resolvable: a nation can both cut emissions and adapt equitably if strategy is coherent, inclusive, and urgent.[1]

Ensuring the economic transition uplifts rather than disrupts vulnerable communities and sets the tone for fairness and shared prosperity.[2]

Safeguarding ecology and cultural systems ensures the deeper foundations of Australian social and environmental life persist in a changing climate.[4]

Law reform, community action, and broad political participation combine to deliver legitimacy and durability for climate policy.[5]

Australia can maintain and enhance its global standing by demonstrating how climate ambition, justice and regional responsibility can go hand in hand.[6]

The time to act is now: delays compound risk, erode trust, and magnify costs for people, nature, and economy alike.[1]

References

  1. Climate adaptation in Australia – DCCEEW
  2. Australian Government Climate Change Commitments, Policies and Frameworks – AOFM
  3. Climate change, environmental extremes, and human health in Australia – The Lancet
  4. Australian government climate policies – Australia Pathways
  5. Climate adaptation – a multi-billion-dollar problem invisible in Election 2025 – Monash Lens
  6. 2035 Climate Targets in Australia: Fact Sheet – Climate Council
  7. Chapter 11: Australasia – Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability – IPCC WGII
  8. Climate Reparations in Australia: Obstacles and Opportunities – Law Ecology Politics
  9. Adaptation planning – National Adaptation Plan – DCCEEW

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