28/10/2016

Australia Climate Report Predicts More Hot Days and Harsher Fire Seasons

New York Times - Michelle Innis

Drought-affected farmland in New South Wales, Australia, last year. Credit David Gray/Reuters
SYDNEY, Australia — Australia will have more extremely hot days and a longer and fiercer fire season, and parts of the continent will spend more time in drought as rainfall decreases, according to a report by top government scientists released on Thursday.
Surface temperature has increased about 1 degree Celsius since 1910, the report said, and rainfall through the growing season for winter crops has dropped almost 20 percent in some regions. Sea levels are also rising as ocean temperatures warm, leading to higher chances of inundation and coastal flooding. Oceans absorb large amounts of the world's excess heat.
Extreme weather events are increasingly common, said Steve Rintoul, interim director of Australia's climate science center at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and an author of the report. And that trend will continue.
"Although a 1-degree-Celsius rise in air temperatures seems small, it is enough to shift base-line averages," Dr. Rintoul said, referring to an increase equal to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.
He added, "It increases the odds those events will happen."
The biennial report, by scientists at Csiro and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, draws on data collected at Cape Grim, Tasmania, where greenhouse gases caught in the atmosphere are measured, and from a program called Argo that tracks temperatures and other conditions in the world's oceans.
Australia is viewed as a leading example of a developed country being hit hard by climate change, and the report hints at the complex effects the rest of the world may face as climate change alters weather patterns.
"The whole globe is subject to change," said Karl Braganza, of the Bureau of Meteorology, another author of the report. "It is sobering to look at other countries, countries like Bangladesh, or African nations, where their ability to deal with drought is much more reduced than ours."
Up to 75 percent of ocean warming occurred in the Southern Hemisphere, the report said. As oceans absorb carbon dioxide and water temperatures increase, they expand, contributing to a rise in sea levels. Warmer oceans have also prompted a shift in large-scale weather patterns, which in turn affects rainfall. Although precipitation across Australia varies year to year, Csiro said the recent drying out of southern Australia was the strongest recorded large-scale change in rainfall since national records began in 1900. Years with lower-than-average growing-season rain would be more frequent in some regions, the report said.
Rainfall in the southwest reached such lows that Perth, the capital of Western Australia, mostly relied on water from desalination plants, Dr. Rintoul said. Long-term averages have declined 19 percent since 1970, but that has accelerated to 25 percent since 1996. Perth, an isolated city on the far western coast, has a population of about two million.
Water that flows through streams and rivers also declined sharply. In the food-growing Murray-Darling Basin, in southern New South Wales and Victoria, stream flows were 41 percent lower than average, and in some parts of Victoria, they declined more than 70 percent.
The report also said that since 1993, sea levels to the north, west and southeast of Australia surpassed the global average. Ocean warming contributed to about a third of that rise, of about 20 centimeters, or 7.8 inches, since the late 1800s. The remainder was attributed to melting sea ice and changes to water stored on land.
The scientists, who said carbon dioxide emissions were largely because of the burning of fossil fuels like coal, refrained from urging the government to increase its commitment to lowering pollution targets. Australia has yet to ratify the Paris accord on climate change.
In August 2015, Australia agreed to an emissions cut of between 26 and 28 percent from 2005 levels by 2030. But state authorities have pushed ahead with plans for an immense coal mine in Queensland, inland from the Great Barrier Reef.
For almost a decade, Australia has fought bitterly over efforts to curb polluters. Two years ago, the country repealed carbon laws requiring large companies to pay for greenhouse gas emissions, a measure intended to penalize hundreds of its biggest producers of carbon emissions. During his successful campaign for prime minister a year earlier, Tony Abbott, then the leader of the Liberal Party, said the tax pushed up electricity prices for consumers. That claim contributed to his party's win. The emission targets that he put in place, derided as too low by environmental groups, remain in effect under his successor, Malcolm Turnbull.
Dr. Rintoul said historical emissions meant temperatures in Australia would continue to rise. Temperatures in the spring hit highs for three consecutive years starting in 2013, he noted. And agreements reached in Paris would not limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, he said, adding that carbon emissions were at peak levels in 2015 and would rise.
"We have to go further," he said.

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State of the Climate 2016: Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO

The Conversation -  | 

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO have released their fourth biennial State of the Climate Report.
Australia’s oceans are heating up. Richard Rydge/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND
State of the Climate 2016 provides an update on the changes and long-term trends in Australia’s climate. The report’s observations are based on the extensive climate monitoring capability and programs of CSIRO and the Bureau, which provide a detailed picture of variability and trends in Australia’s marine and terrestrial climates. The science underpinning State of the Climate informs impact assessment and planning across all sectors of the economy and the environment.
One of the report’s key observations is carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. A key component of global CO₂ monitoring is the joint Bureau and CSIRO atmospheric monitoring station in Cape Grim, Tasmania, one of three premier global baseline monitoring stations in the world, along with Mauna Loa in Hawaii and Alert in Nunavut, Canada.
CO₂ concentrations at Cape Grim passed through 400 parts per million for the first time in May 2016, and global concentrations are now at their highest levels in the past two million years.
It takes time for the climate system to warm in response to increases in greenhouse gases, and the historical emissions over the past century have locked in some warming over the next two decades, regardless of any changes we might make to global emissions in that period. Current and future global emissions will, however, make a difference to the rate and degree of climate change in the second half of the 21st century.
State of the Climate focuses on current climate trends that are likely to continue into the near future. This acknowledges that climate change is happening now, and that we will be required to adapt to changes during the next 30 years.
While natural variability continues to play a large role in Australia’s climate, some long-term trends are apparent. The terrestrial climate has warmed by around 1℃ since 1910, with an accompanying increase in the duration, frequency and intensity of extreme heat events across large parts of Australia. There has been an increase in extreme fire weather, and a lengthening of the fire season in most fire-prone regions since the 1970s.
Annual mean temperature changes across Australia since 1910. State of the Climate 2016

Trends from 1974 to 2015 in annual 90th percentile of daily Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) at 38 climate reference locations. Trends are in FFDI points per decade and larger circles represent larger trends. Filled circles represent statistically significant trends. Trends are upward (in red), except for Brisbane airport (in blue). State of the Climate 2016
Observations also show that atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere have led to an average reduction in rainfall across parts of southern Australia.
In particular, May–July rainfall has reduced by around 19% since 1970 in the southwest of Australia. There has been a decline of around 11% since the mid-1990s in April–October rainfall in the continental southeast. Southeast Australia has had below-average rainfall in 16 of the April–October periods since 1997.
Australia’s oceans have also warmed, with sea surface temperature increases closely matching those experienced on land. This warming affects both the marine environment and Australia’s terrestrial climate, due to the large influence of surrounding oceans on our weather systems. Sea levels have risen around Australia, which has the potential to amplify the effects of high tides and storm surges.
Trends in sea surface temperature in the Australian region from 1950 to 2015. State of the Climate 2016
Estimates of the change in ocean heat content over the full ocean depth, from 1960 to present. Shading provides an indication of the confidence range of the estimate. State of the Climate 2016
The report has new findings compared to State of the Climate 2014.
Significantly, we report that warming in the global oceans now extends to at least 2,000 metres below the surface. These observations are made possible by the Argo array of global floats that has been monitoring ocean temperatures over the past decade. When we talk about the climate system continuing to warm in response to historical greenhouse gas emissions, that is almost entirely due to ongoing ocean warming, which these observations show is now steadily in train.
The other new inclusion is the science of extreme event attribution.
In the past five years, an increasing number of studies, using both statistical and modelling techniques, have quantified the role of global warming in individual extreme events. This complements previous science which partly attributes a change in the frequency of extreme weather, such as an increase in the number of heatwaves, to global warming.
In Australia, this includes studies that used the Bureau’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) to essentially predict observed extreme events in a modelled climate with and without an enhanced greenhouse effect.
In particular, studies of record heat experienced during Spring in 2013 and 2014 have shown that the observed high temperatures received an extra contribution from background global warming.
These studies are an initial step towards understanding how climate change could affect the dynamics of the climate and weather system. In turn, this work provides greater intelligence for those managing climate risks.

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Great Barrier Reef: Most Coral Now Dead North Of Port Douglas Off Far North Queensland, Scientists Say

ABC News - Ben Millington

A return trip to the same reefs this month show most of that coral was now dead. (Justin Marshall/coralwatch.org - file photo)
What is coral bleaching?
  • Occurs when abnormal environmental conditions cause coral to expel tiny photosynthetic algae, called zooxanthellae
  • Loss of colourful algae causes coral to turn white and "bleach"
  • Bleached coral can recover if the temperature drops and zooxanthellae are able to recolonise them, otherwise it may die
Source: ARC Centre of Excellence
Eighty to 100 per cent of coral reefs surrounding Lizard Island off far north Queensland are now dead as a result of coral bleaching, scientists say.
The ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University visited 83 reefs stretching from Townsville to the Torres Strait earlier this year and revealed the worst recorded mass bleaching event in the reef's history.
Professor Andrew Baird said researchers conducted the same survey this month and had already visited the first 50 reefs between Townsville and Lizard Island.
He said the results were confronting.
"What we're seeing now is lots and lots of dead corals," he said.
"On most of the sites around Lizard Island between 80 to 100 per cent of corals are gone — there's not much coral at all, north of Port Douglas".
Professor Baird said there was a slim chance the northern third of the Great Barrier Reef could rejuvenate, but it would depend on the health of the southern sections.
"There's still a lot of reef here which could supply the propagules for the reef up north to recover, but it's likely to take a very long time because the scale of the event around Lizard Island and further north was so large," he said.
"It will also depend on it not bleaching again, particularly in those areas that are still in good condition."
However, Professor Baird said most of the reefs surveyed off the coast of Townsville and further south were only lightly bleached and now in reasonably good condition.
"That's a positive, but with the current trajectories of carbon dioxide and ocean temperatures, there's nothing to say that those areas might not bleach as soon as next year," he said.
The researchers said the final death toll from the bleaching in the north would not be known until all surveys were completed in mid-November.
They said it was already clear that this event was much more severe than the two previous bleachings in 2002 and 1998.

Links
Bleak report card delivered for Great Barrier Reef
Damselfish relocate to adapt to rising temperatures on Great Barrier Reef: study
Only 7pc of Great Barrier Reef escapes bleaching: survey

27/10/2016

Watch Leonardo DiCaprio’s Climate Change Doc Online for Free

EcoWatch - 

By now, you have probably heard that Leonardo DiCaprio has a new documentary about climate change coming out. So how can you watch it?


The Fisher Stevens-directed documentary will make its television debut on National Geographic's channel in 171 countries and 45 languages on Sunday, Oct. 30.
Additionally, in an unprecedented move, National Geographic also announced today that Before the Flood will premiere commercial free across digital and streaming platforms around the world as part of the network's commitment to covering climate change.
That means not only can you catch the critically acclaimed film on cable, from Oct. 30 through Nov. 6, you can also watch it on just about any website or device where you regularly stream online videos. The exhaustive list includes: Natgeotv.com, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon, iTunes, Hulu, Sony PlayStation, GooglePlay, VOD/Video On Demand (through MVPD set-top boxes), MVPD Sites and Apps, Nat Geo TV Apps (iPhone, iPad and Apple TV, Roku, Android phones, Xbox One and 360, Samsung Connected TVs) and more.
Here's DiCaprio himself making the announcement:
Proud to announce that #BeforetheFlood will be available to stream for free on October 30th! @FisherStevens and I set out to create a film that would educate people on the urgent issues of #climatechange and inspire them to be part of a solution. We applaud @NatGeoChannel’s commitment to bringing this film to as many people as possible.

The idea behind this historic premiere is to educate as many people around the world about climate change and to also bring the topic to the forefront before the Nov. 8. election where a number of candidates seeking public office—including a certain orange-hued Republican—denies that climate change is even real.
"There is no greater threat to the future of our society than climate change, and it must be a top issue for voters this election season," said DiCaprio, an Oscar-winning actor-winning actor and prominent environmental activist. "Fisher and I set out to make a film to educate people around the planet on the urgent issues of climate change and to inspire them to be part of the solution. I applaud National Geographic for their commitment to bringing this film to as many people as possible at such a critical time."
"The level of support National Geographic is providing to create awareness about climate change is exactly what Leo and I were looking for when we made this film," Stevens added. "Climate change is real, and we are feeling its effects more and more every day; it's time we stop arguing its existence, and do everything we can to bring this issue to the forefront of people's minds so that real action is taken to combat climate change."
The documentary has already made its theatrical release in New York and Los Angeles on Oct. 21. It has also been shown at international film festivals, the United Nations and at the White House South By South Lawn event before President Obama.
The film is also screening at more 250 colleges and universities nationwide and being made available to churches and religious institutions via Interfaith Power and Light, National Geographic said. The network has partnered with Rock the Vote and theSkimm to allow people who attend screenings of Before The Flood to register to vote and to become informed on the issues.
"In our minds, there is no more important story to tell, no more important issue facing our planet than that of climate change," said Courteney Monroe, the CEO of National Geographic Global Networks. "At National Geographic, we believe in the power of storytelling to change the world, and this unprecedented release across digital and streaming platforms is not only a first for our network but also in our industry, underscoring how exceptional we think this film is and how passionate we are about it. We are committed to ensuring as many people as possible see this film as we head into U.S. elections."
Before The Flood, as well as the award-winning documentary series Years of Living Dangerously, will kick off the National Geographic Channel's "Earth Week"—a week of programming starting Oct. 30 dedicated to bringing awareness to issues surrounding climate change.
Before The Flood depicts how Earth is changing due to rising temperatures and how individuals and society-at-large can help preserve our precious environment. DiCaprio travels around the world to interview a number of world leaders and experts about climate change, including President Obama, former President Bill Clinton, Secretary of State John Kerry, U.N. Secretary-General Ki-Moon, Pope Francis, Elon Musk as well as top NASA researchers, forest conservationists, scientists, community leaders and other environmental activists.
The film was produced by DiCaprio, Stevens, Brett Ratner and James Packer and executive produced by Martin Scorsese. Watch the trailer here:

Watch the Before the Flood trailer – video.

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A 1912 News Article Ominously Forecasted The Catastrophic Effects Of Fossil Fuels On Climate Change

Quartz - Akshat Rathi



A short news clip from a New Zealand paper published in 1912 has gone viral as an example of an early news story to make the connection between burning fossil fuels and climate change.
Published Aug. 14, 1912. (The Rodney and Otamatea Times and Waitemata and Kaipara Gazette)
It  wasn’t, however, the first article to suggest that our love for coal was wreaking destruction on our environment that would lead to climate change. The theory—now widely accepted as scientific reality—was mentioned in the news media as early as 1883, and was discussed in scientific circles much earlier than that.
The French physicist Joseph Fourier had made the observation in 1824 that the composition of the atmosphere is likely to affect the climate. But Svante Arrhenius’s 1896 study titled, “On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature on the ground” was the first to quantify how carbon dioxide (or anhydrous carbonic acid, by another name) affects global temperature. Though the study does not explicitly say that the burning of fossil fuels would cause global warming, there were scientists before him who had made such a forecast.
The earliest such mention that Quartz could find was in the journal Nature in December of 1882. The author HA Phillips writes:
According to Prof Tyndall’s research, hydrogen, marsh gas, and ethylene have the property to a very high degree of absorbing and radiating heat, and so much that a very small proportion, of say one thousandth part, had very great effect. From this we may conclude that the increasing pollution of the atmosphere will have a marked influence on the climate of the world.
Phillips was relying on the work of John Tyndall, who in the 1860s had shown how various gases in the atmosphere absorb heat from the sun in the form of infrared radiation. Now we know that Phillips was wrong about a few scientific details: He ignored carbon dioxide from burning coal and focused more on the by-products of mining. Still, he was drawing the right conclusion about what our demand for fossil fuels might do to the climate.
Newspapers around the world took those words published in a prestigious scientific journal quite seriously. In January 1883, the New York Times published a lengthy article based on Phillips’ letter to Nature, which said:
The writer who has partially discussed the subject in the columns of Nature has fixed upon 1900 as the date when the earth’s atmosphere will become entirely irrespirable. This is probably a misprint, for unless the consumption of cigarettes increases unlooked-for rapidly the atmosphere ought to remain respirable until 1910, or even 1912. At the latter date all mankind will have perished, and nothing except the hardier plants will be living on the surface of the earth.
Let’s hope the author of that New York Times article was extant in 1912 to breathe a sigh of relief that such a doomsday hadn’t come to pass. That 1883 article did end up achieving something important though: It made the conversation about the effect of pollution a lot more common.
Jeff Nichols, a historian at the University of Illinois at Chicago, believes the source of the New Zealand news story making the rounds on the internet is an article published in Popular Mechanics in March 1912. Beyond quoting the exact same numbers, its author Francis Molena goes on to say:
A theory has been elaborated, primarily by the great Swedish scientist Arrhenius, that the earth has had a warm climate when the amount of carbon dioxide in the air was abundant, and a cold climate when it was scarce.
Nichols found many examples between 1883 and 1912, where newspapers, including the Philadelphia Inquirer, Kansas City Star, and York Daily, wrote articles about what rising carbon dioxide levels would do the climate.
All through the 19th century, the increasing use of coal was hard to miss. Towns and cities across the world were becoming noticeably polluted because of factories, and later steam trains. In this light, it’s not surprising that a tiny New Zealand newspaper carried an article in 1912 about how the ever-increasing use of fossil fuels might change Earth’s climate.

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US Court Says Animals Can Be Listed As Threatened If Climate Change Poses A Risk

Gizmodo - 

In a groundbreaking precedent that will likely be felt for decades to come, a federal appeals court in the US has ruled that a species can be listed as “threatened” based on climate change projections. (Image: NOAA)
Earlier today, a three-judge panel of the US 9th Circuit Court unanimously rejected an appeal launched by several oil company groups, the state of Alaska and indigenous Alaskans to prevent a Pacific bearded seal subspecies from acquiring environmental protections.
When explaining their decision, the judges said that loss of Arctic sea ice would “almost certainly” threaten the survival of the seals by the end of the century.
 Importantly, the court made its decision by looking at observational and predictive data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which included six climate models.
It’s a big victory for the defendants, the National Marine Fisheries Services and the Center for Biological Diversity, not to mention the seals themselves.
The decision reinstates Endangered Species Act (ESA) protections for the bearded seals, but it also sets an important precedent moving forward.
Protections reinstated thanks to climate models. (Image: NOAA)
“The service need not wait until a species’ habitat is destroyed to determine that habitat loss may facilitate extinction,” wrote Judge Richard A. Paez in the decision (pdf). The fisheries service “adopted the position of the overwhelming majority of the world’s climate scientists”, while rejecting the plaintiffs’ argument against the use of climate projections.
In order for a species to get ESA protections, the court said the evidence doesn’t have to be completely “ironclad and absolute”. It simply needs the NOAA Fisheries agency to “consider the best and most reliable scientific and commercial data and to identify the limits of that data when making a listing determination”.
The Pacific bearded seals depend on winter sea-ice habitat off the coasts of Alaska and Russia. These seals gather on the ice floes over the shallow waters, where mothers give birth to pups and nurse. These flows also provide the seals with close access to food resources (such as animals that live on the ocean floor), and a place from which pups can safely learn to dive, swim and forage away from predators.
Climate scientists worry that summer sea ice across the Arctic could disappear in as little as 20 years, while winter ice could be reduced by at least 40 per cent by 2050. At the same time, the bearded seals face threats from proposed offshore and oil and gas development — areas in which an oil spill would be practically impossible to clean up.
It’s a tough blow for the energy industry, which will have to honour the ESA and rethink its plans in the region. Importantly, indigenous Alaskans will still be allowed to harvest the seas for subsistence.
Looking ahead, this precedent could see other climate change-threatened animals getting the same protections, including polar bears, seabirds, fish and amphibians. And as a reminder that climate change poses a real risk to animals, the Bramble Cay melomys was listed as extinct earlier this year — the first mammal to be wiped out by climate change.

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26/10/2016

Global CO2 Concentration Passes Threshold of 400 ppm—And That’s Bad for the Climate

Time - 

Scientists say humans may need to take some carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere to stop global warming 
Steam rises from the cooling towers of the coal power plant of RWE, one of Europe's biggest electricity and gas companies in Niederaussem, Germany, on Mar. 3, 2016. Wolfgang Rattay—Reuters 
The average level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere across the globe passed 400 parts per million (ppm) last year, a symbolic and worrying milestone in growth of manmade climate change, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed Monday.
The carbon dioxide concentration is unlikely to dip below the 400 ppm mark for at least several decades, even with aggressive efforts to reduce global carbon emissions, according to the WMO report, which confirms similar findings reported last month. Carbon dioxide can last in the atmosphere for thousands of years without efforts to remove it.
“The year 2015 ushered in a new era of optimism and climate action,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas, referring to the landmark Paris Agreement to address climate change. “The real elephant in the room is carbon dioxide, which remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years and in the oceans for even longer.”
Governments from across the globe committed to cutting their carbon dioxide emissions in the Paris Agreement, negotiated at the end of 2015, but most climate policy experts believe that scientists will need to develop cost-effective methods to actually pull the gas out of the atmosphere to keeping the globe from warming more than 2°C (3.6°F) by 2100. That’s the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement and the level that, if crossed, scientists say could bring the worst effects of climate change.
Passing the 400 ppm threshold will not trigger any devastating effect by itself, but it does provide one metric of just how fast humans are emitting carbon dioxide. It is the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere that actually intensifies the greenhouse effect, in turn warming the climate. (On Venus, where carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere reach 30,000 ppm, the average surface temperature is a toasty 864 F (462 C).
Just what level of carbon concentration in the atmosphere poses an irrevocable danger is up for debate. Many scientists pegged 450 ppm as a red line, while others have said 350 ppm—which the Earth passed years ago—is the safe upper limit. (The Bill McKibben-led climate advocacy group 350.org takes its name from that number.)
The reality is that there is no absolute red line—climate change isn’t catastrophic at 401 ppm and safe at 399 ppm. But we do know that the more carbon we put into the atmosphere with no ability to take it out, the warner the world will get.
The finding comes as the globe continues to experience record a series of temperature records. Eleven of the last 12 months have been the hottest on record and 2016 is widely expected to be the hottest year ever recorded. At the same time, governments from around the globe have made significant progress on the issue in the last several months—from quick ratification of the Paris Agreement to passage of new deals on aviation and HFC emissions.

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