More Rain On The Horizon As Climate Change Affects Australia, Study Finds

Fairfax - Rachel Browne

Australians will need to batten down the hatches with more intense rain storms predicted as a result of higher humidity driven by a rise in global temperatures.
New findings from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, published in Nature Climate Change on Tuesday, reveal that a two-degree rise in average global temperatures would lead to a 10-30 per cent increase in extreme downpours.

The state of our climate in 2016
Australia is already experiencing an increase in extreme conditions from climate change - and it's projected to get worse.

The study's authors predict that while some parts of the continent will become wetter, others will experience increasing drought.
Steve Sherwood, a professor at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of NSW who contributed to the research, said global warming would have a clear impact on rainfall.

More heavy rainstorms are on the horizon, according to climate scientists. Photo: Dominic Lorrimer

"There is no chance that rainfall in Australia will remain the same as the climate warms," he said.
"With two degrees of global warming, Australia is stuck with either more aridity, much heavier extreme rains, or some combination of the two."
The findings come as Sydney prepares for two days of above average temperatures with a maximum of 31 degrees forecast for Tuesday and 36 degrees forecast for Wednesday. The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting rain towards the end of the week.
The scientists examined the heaviest rainstorms across Australia, focusing on the different climates of Sydney, Melbourne and Darwin.
They found greater average humidity led to an increase in heavy downpours. Even in areas where humidity and rainfall was lower, a two degree increase in global temperature led to an 11 per cent increase in total rainfall.
The study's lead author Jiawei Bao said most parts of Australia would be affected by an increase in global temperatures.
"Extreme precipitation is projected to increase almost everywhere in Australia from tropical regions in the north to mid-latitudes in the south and from dry deserts in the centre to wet places along the coast," he said.
"Rising air temperature is the primary reason for this change. Australia's infrastructure will need to be prepared to adapt to these more extreme rainfall events even if we act to moderate the global temperature rise to within two degrees."
Australia is a signatory to the 2015 Paris Agreement, a global aim to keep average temperature increases to well below two degrees.
Professor Sherwood warned that current policies worldwide are not enough to meet the Paris targets.
The study found that a four per cent rise in global temperature, possible based on current increases in the rate of carbon emissions, would lead to a 22-60 per cent increase in extreme rain storms.
"It is likely we face even greater changes unless policies are strengthened," Professor Sherwood said. "Australia can not use past observations alone to develop rainfall infrastructure.  This research tells us we need to be prepared to adapt to a world of far more intense rainfall extremes, if we can."

Links

• It's official: Sydney has its hottest year ever
• Explosion of Ross River virus prompts mosquito warning for Victoria
• Companies' climate change negligence will cost us all
• The eight weather events this year that shook world
• Arctic just had its warmest year on record 'by far'
• 'Earth On The Edge': EU Agency Confirms 2016 As Hottest Year On Record
• 2016 Was The Hottest Year Ever On Australia's East Coast, Confirms Bureau Of Meteorology
• 2017 To Be Third Hottest Year On Record, Scientists Say

Epic Antarctic Voyage Maps Seafloor To Predict Ocean Rise As Glacier The Size Of California Melts

The Guardian - Calla Wahlquist

Global research group will trace Totten glacier’s history back to last ice age, in hope of predicting future melting patterns

The Totten glacier is under threat from warming ocean temperatures, scientists say, and a team has left for the Antarctic region on a research voyage. Photograph: Department of Environment/AAP

In East Antarctica, 3,000km south of the West Australian town of Albany, an ice shelf the size of California is melting from below.
The concerning trend was confirmed by Australian scientists in December, who reported that warming ocean temperatures were causing the rapid melt of the end of the Totten glacier, which is holding back enough ice to create a global sea rise of between 3.5 metres and six metres.
On Saturday, a team of international scientists left Hobart aboard the Australian research ship Investigator to map the seafloor ahead of the glacier to trace its history back to the last ice age, in the hopes of predicting its future melting patterns.
The 51-day mission is one of the longest ever voyages by Australian scientists to Antarctica and will involve mapping the unexplored Sabrina Coast seafloor and taking samples of piles of glacial sediment left behind by the retreating ice sheet.
It has been four years in the planning for the chief scientist Dr Leanne Armand, an associate professor with Sydney’s Macquarie University.
The focus will be the area around the base of the Totten glacier, which is usually surrounded by ice. Reports from researchers aboard the Aurora Australis, which was in the area in December, show that fast ice has melted back.
“If that goes, then we’ll be able to get in and provide the very first seafloor maps on the continental shelf itself and that will be really critical to a whole bunch of different sciences,” Armand said.
She will head a team of 22 researchers from Australia, Italy, Spain and the United States. They will be assisted by 12 support staff from the Marine National Facility, a subdivision of the CSIRO, which operates the Investigator; a Tasmanian high school science teacher; and 20 crew.
Also on board is Dr Tara Martin, a CSIRO scientist who helped design the Investigator and will act on this mission as the ship’s geophysicist, monitoring the sonar and seismic equipment used to map the seafloor.
Martin said the seismic equipment, borrowed from the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia in Italy, would be used to examine the composition of the sediment layers to help researchers pinpoint the best locations for extracting rock cores, which will in turn be used to map past glacial melting patterns.
“One of the things we’re trying to understand here is, is this [glacial] retreat normal, has this kind of retreat happened before, and has this speed of retreat happened before,” Martin said. “If it’s not normal, how much of what we’re observing today can we isolate from what is normal, and therefore maybe see what could be an anthropogenic effect.”
The worst scenario, Martin said, was that the ice tongue of the glacier could disappear.
“If you remove that ice tongue, in theory you’re releasing the break on the rate of flow of the glacier,” she said. “So the concern is ... if the whole ice tongue melts away, potentially the whole glacier could rush out to sea over a geological timescale, and we don’t know what that timescale is. Losing an ice tongue and having it break off – it’s already in the water, that doesn’t add to sea level rise very much. But losing a glacier the size of California that’s currently on land and dumping that in the water – that’s going to change sea level rise estimates.”
The expedition is authorised to take a maximum of 15 cores, measuring 10cm in diameter and up to 24 metres long.
The cores will be cut into one metre lengths in an area known as the “wet and dirty lab”, capped at both ends, and placed in cold storage until they can be transported to Geoscience Australia, where interested researchers will hold a party to divide up the samples.
It is Armand’s ninth voyage to the Antarctic, and Martin’s 14th. Both have refined their list of items to bring to stave off boredom on the lengthy voyage, in the little downtime provided at the end of a 12-hour shift.
The ship is kitted out with a gym, a video and games room, and twin bunk rooms with en suites, as well as sophisticated scientific equipment and laboratories.
The bunk beds have curtains to help roommates on opposite shifts.
But even in those comparatively comfortable environments, Armand says, most people bring some form of creature comfort.
Armand’s must-have is natural raspberry cordial, followed by a box of her favourite muesli and her own mug. Martin’s is more extensive: a “a seriously embarrassing amount of books,” as well as a camera, binoculars and field guide for spotting wildlife. She also brings knitting.
Her list of books is eclectic: Dickens, Austen, a few popular science geology books recommended to her by a “geeked out” pack of geoscientists on her last sub-Antarctic voyage, the memoirs of Philip Law, who directed the Australian Antarctic Division in the 1950s, and a “standard range of fiction”.
On top of personal luxuries, and Martin’s small library, everyone on board is required to bring, at minimum: two pairs of gloves (one waterproof, one woollen); one beanie; two pairs of woollen or thermal pants, two woollen or thermal tops, three pairs of woollen socks; one polar fleece jacket; one pair of polar fleece pants; one pair of steel-toe boots; and one pair of polarised sunglasses.
A strap for said sunglasses, a balaclava, a snood, an insulated down jacket, and steel-toe gumboots are highly recommended.
Other safety gear, such as hard hats and high-visibility jackets, is provided.

Links

• World's largest marine park created in Ross Sea in Antarctica in landmark deal
• Sea ice extent in Arctic and Antarctic reached record lows in November
• UK's Antarctica research base to relocate as 'precautionary measure'
• New studies show Rex Tillerson is wrong about climate risks
• Giant iceberg poised to break off from Antarctic shelf
• Antarctic expert and HIV research pioneer among scientists made dames
• Experience: I survived a power cut in Antarctica
• Briton swims Antarctic in campaign for three marine sanctuaries
• Sea ice extent in Arctic and Antarctic reached record lows in November
• World's largest marine park created in Ross Sea in Antarctica in landmark deal

Koalas Are At The Centre Of A Perfect Storm. The Species Is Slipping Away

The Guardian - Kevin Evans

Australia is one of the worst performing countries in terms of protecting its ecoregions. Koalas are a litmus test for conservation of a habitat in crisis

‘As you may expect from a species inhabiting a crisis ecoregion, the koala is not faring so well.’ Photograph: Alamy Stock Photo

In 2016 koalas were sighted for the first time in decades at Mount Kembla, Wollongong and in Kosciuszko national park in New South Wales. Although these sightings are a source of hope, it’s important we don’t get lulled into a false sense of security about the extent to which nature, including koalas, is threatened in Australia. We have serious work to do to protect our unique plants and animals.
Most environment news these days focuses on climate change. In many ways this isn’t surprising. Climate change threatens to alter our entire environment as rainfall patterns change, temperatures rise and extremes become more common. Many species are already finding their habitats shrinking – just look at polar bears and the rapidly vanishing Arctic sea ice.
Yet amid this climate emergency “mere” species extinctions have largely been pushed out of mind. Of course the issues are intertwined as climate change can cause extinctions: in July the Bramble Cay melomys (a rodent) was reported as the first animal to have been made extinct primarily due to climate change. In its case, its single-island habitat had been repeatedly inundated by rising sea levels destroying the native vegetation and ultimately the species itself. And of course climate change threatens to exacerbate and amplify other threats to species like bushfires and heatwaves.
But human destruction of habitat is, at least in the short term, a much greater threat to species than climate change. In mid-December, scientists from the University of Queensland were part of a team that found, of all developed countries on Earth, Australia was performing worst in protecting its ecoregions (areas containing broadly similar habitat). The researchers identified “crisis ecoregions” where habitat loss is greatest. A crisis ecoregion in Australia? Temperate forests.
Enter the koala. Undoubtedly the most famous inhabitant of Australian temperate forest ecosystems, and arguably the world’s favourite species. But as you may expect from a species inhabiting a crisis ecoregion, it’s not faring so well. Historical accounts describe large numbers of koalas being seen regularly in the late 1800s in NSW. In 1921, 200,000 koala pelts passed through Sydney and in 1924 two million pelts were exported from eastern Australia.
Yet now all koala populations, bar a few in eastern Australia, are in decline. Some sharply so. So whether or not you find, as we do, the most recent estimate of 329,000 in Australia (36,000 koalas in NSW) to be optimistic one thing is clear: koala numbers are a fraction of what they once were and the species is slipping away.
In NSW, koalas are in the centre of a perfect storm largely of the government’s own making: changes to land clearing laws have already devastated bushland in Queensland and history threatens to repeat itself in NSW with the Baird government recently passing its land-clearing legislation.
Much remaining high-quality koala habitat is either on private land, thus at risk of clearing, or in state forests and thus subject to ever more intense state-sanctioned logging. Urban development is eating into koala habitat up and down the coast. And following this habitat destruction, koalas are vulnerable to dog attacks and vehicle strike as they spend more time on the ground.
If this were happening to a snail, or even a frog, it would probably be ignored. But koalas are one of the few animals whose plight the government finds it hard to ignore. That’s why the NSW government is currently beginning the development of a whole of government koala strategy and asking for community feedback on planning issues and its Saving Our Species conservation strategy. At a federal level, the National Koala Conservation and Management Strategy expired in 2014. Word is that a new strategy is in the pipeline but at the moment we’re flying blind.
The best way to protect koalas is a tried and tested one. The scientists that identified the crisis ecoregion problem also identified the solution: large, well-connected protected areas. Only by protecting and connecting remaining koala habitat can the government enact meaningful conservation. Everything else is tinkering round the edges.
And only by demonstrating that it can effectively protect koalas can we have any confidence that the government can protect the rest of Australia’s extraordinary wildlife that doesn’t share the koala’s high profile.

Links

• Koalas 'under siege' from policy changes set to destroy habitat, report finds
• 'We have to stop the bulldozers': swaths of koala habitat lost, say activists
• Revealed: first mammal species wiped out by human-induced climate change
• Animals Threatened By Climate Change

Prince Charles Co-Authors Ladybird Climate Change Book

BBC

The cover of the book was based on an image of flooding in Uckfield, East Sussex. Penguin

Prince Charles has co-authored a Ladybird book on the challenges and possible solutions to climate change.

It is part of a series for adults written in the style of the well-known children's books that aims to clearly explain complicated subjects.
The 52-page guide has been co-authored by former Friends of the Earth director Tony Juniper and climate scientist Emily Shuckburgh.
Mr Juniper said he hoped the book would "stand the test of time".
Ladybird produced a series of books for children in the 1960s and 1970s and has recently found renewed success with a range of humorous books for adults.
Titles include the Ladybird Book of the Mid-Life Crisis and the Ladybird Book of the Hangover.
The latest series involves experts explaining complex subjects in simple form.
The prince previously co-authored a book with Mr Juniper and Ian Skelly called Harmony: A New Way of Looking at Our World. He also wrote a children's book entitled The Old Man of Lochnagar.

The full cover of the climate change book, which goes on sale later in January. Penguin

Mr Juniper told the Mail on Sunday: "His royal highness, Emily and I had to work very hard to make sure that each word did its job, while at the same time working with the pictures to deliver the points we needed to make.
"I hope we've managed to paint a vivid picture, and, like those iconic titles from the 60s and 70s, created a title that will stand the test of time."
A publishing director for Penguin, which produces Ladybird books, revealed Clarence House had put the latest idea to the publisher.
Rowland White told the Sunday Times: "It was a coincidence where we were thinking about a new series for adults after the huge success of the spoof books, but this time wanted some factual books by experts on science, history and arts subjects."
Penguin Books said the title, which will be released on 26 January, had been read and reviewed by figures within the environmental community.
The other books in the series are Quantum Mechanics by Jim Al-Khalili, and Evolution by Steve Jones.
Asked how the book might be received in the academic community, Dr Phillip Williamson, an associate fellow at the University of East Anglia's School of Environmental Sciences, said: "There's the obvious danger that this won't be taken seriously.
"But if the style is right, and the information is correct and understandable, the new Ladybird book with royal authorship could be just what is needed to get the message across that everyone needs to take action on climate change."

Ladybird Books has recently had renewed success with a range of humorous books for adults. Ladybird

Links

• Prince Charles pens Ladybird book on climate change
• Ladybird Books
• What Prince Charles gets wrong – and right – about climate change and conflict in Syria
• ‘Unprecedented level of cooperation’ needed to tackle climate change, says Prince Charles

Climate Change Fallout in Bangladesh: 9.6m people to migrate by 2050

Daily Star - Staff Correspondent

Increased natural disasters and loss of livelihoods due to climatic factors are forcing people to migrate internally, according to a study of the International Organisation for Migration (IOM).
Costal districts are very vulnerable to cyclones, storm surges, tidal floods, salinity intrusion and sea level rise, while drought, flash floods and riverine floods have made public life very difficult in the north and northeast region of Bangladesh, it says.
The IOM yesterday shared the information at a Regional Dissemination Meeting of “Assessing the Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Migration Nexus in South Asia” jointly organised by the Ministry of Environment and Forests in the capital's Bangabandhu International Conference Centre.
The IOM conducted the study in Bangladesh, the Maldives and Nepal. In Bangladesh, the research was carried out among 320 households in four upazilas of Khulna, Patuakhali, Rajshahi and Sunamganj.
Around 9.6 million people in Bangladesh, excluding temporary and seasonal migrants, will migrate internally due to climatic factors between 2011 and 2050, says the IOM in its study referring to a report of the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) done in 2015.
Referring to another report of Displacement Solutions, an international organisation dedicated to resolving cases of forced displacement throughout the world, the IOM also mentioned that around six million people have been displaced from their houses due to climate change effects in Bangladesh.
Increased temperatures and variations in rainfall are the most prevalent climate change elements affecting the lives and livelihoods of people in Bangladesh in recent years, it mentioned.
Golam Rabbani, a leading consultant at Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, led the team for conducting the study in Bangladesh.
As he was presenting his research findings, he said 92 percent respondents felt that the impacts of internal migration had made women more vulnerable as men could go for work in another district.
Referring to the IDMC report, he said more than 19 million people across the world were displaced internally in 2015 due to sudden-onset of disasters.
Of the global total, 7.9 million or 41 percent were from South Asia, he added.
Bangladesh and Nepal are the countries of origin of many less skilled international migrants, while the Maldives is identified as the destination of many migrants from both Bangladesh and Nepal. However, all three countries are also destination for skilled migrants originating from within the region.
Prof Ainun Nishat, an eminent expert on climate change issues and former vice-chancellor of BRAC University, however, said it was essential to ensure alternative livelihoods for the affected people instead of encouraging them in migration.
Environment and Forests Ministry Secretary Istiaque Ahmad and Chief of Mission of IOM Bangladesh Sarat Dash, among others, spoke on the occasion.

Links

• International Organization for Migration
• The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
• Climate change influencing migration flows in Bangladesh: IOM
• IOM: Bangladesh likely to see hike in climate migration
• Climate change will cost Bangladesh $121 billion

Climate Change: 90% Of Rural Australians Say Their Lives Are Already Affected

The Guardian - Calla Wahlquist

Overwhelming majority believe they are living with the effects of warming and 46% say coal-fired power should be phased out

The Climate Institute says 82% of poll respondents in rural and regional Australia and 81% of those in capital cities were concerned about increased droughts as a result of climate change. Photograph: kristianbell/Getty Images/RooM RF

Ninety per cent of people living in rural and regional Australia believe they are already experiencing the impacts of climate change and 46% believe coal-fired power stations should be phased out, according to a new study.
A poll of 2,000 people conducted by the Climate Institute found that 82% of respondents in rural and regional Australia and 81% of those in capital cities were concerned about increased droughts, flooding and destruction of the Great Barrier Reef due to climate change, and 78% of all respondents were concerned there would be more bushfires.
About three quarters of all respondents – 76% in capital cities and 74% in rural or regional areas – said ignoring climate change would make the situation worse and about two-thirds said they believed the federal government should take a leading role.

Level of concern for the effect of climate change on scenarios for capital city population compared to regional and rural

Guardian graphic | Source: Climate Media Centre

However, only a third of respondents said the federal government should be contributing to action on climate change.
Instead, two-thirds, (67% in capital cities and 71% in regional areas) said individuals should be contributing to action on climate change and about half said state and local governments and businesses should be contributing to action on climate change.
The majority of people – 59% in capital cities and 53% in regional areas – said solar was their preferred energy source, followed by wind and hydro.
Only 3% of respondents in the city and 4% in regional areas said coal was their preferred energy source.
Nicky Ison, the director of the Community Power Agency, which represents 80 grassroots groups, said the results showed that concern about climate change was not limited to inner-city suburbs.
“I think there’s a misconception that concern is mainly held in the city and I think there are some strong voices, particularly in rural and regional Australia, that have exaggerated or stoked that misconception,” Ison said.
“A vocal minority gets a lot of traction, probably because they have a greater access to megaphones.”

Most preferred energy source for capital city population compared to regional and rural

Guardian graphic | Source: Climate Media Centre

Matthew Charles-Jones is a co-president of Totally Renewable Yackandandah, a community-run initiative that aims to make the small town, 300km north-east of Melbourne, entirely run on renewable power by 2022.
Charles-Jones said the group was motivated by energy security and rising electricity costs but members were also concerned about the effects of climate change.
“We have been threatened by bushfire roughly every three years for the last decade,” he said.
The last bushfire was in December 2015. “It’s very real for us in Yackandandah,” Charles-Jones said.

Links

• Farmers want action on climate change, new survey shows
• NFF modernises climate change thinking
• Farmer survey reveals concern, shifting attitudes on climate change
• Betting the Farm: Farmers confront climate change
• Adani coalmine activists gear up to fight: ‘This will dwarf the Franklin blockade’

Early Skirmishes Point To A War Over Renewable Energy Lasting Well Into 2017

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Just before last year's federal elections, Jay Weatherill, the South Australian premier, was ruminating about what it would take to finally get attention paid to the nation's looming energy crunch.
Would it be the closure of the brown coal-fired Hazelwood power station, which accounted for a fifth of Victoria's power and a supplier to SA when the wind didn't blow? Or perhaps the shutdown of the ageing Portland aluminium smelter – a huge consumer of electricity adjacent to his state?

Wind farms supply more than 40 per cent of South Australia's electricity and have become a political hotspot.

"It may be those sorts of events that might precipitate that discussion," Weatherill told Fairfax Media in his parliamentary office in Adelaide.
The Premier wasn't to know that within months, a series of mishaps would thrust energy – and in particular, his state's relative dependence on renewable sources such as wind and solar – into the spotlight.
The events included a massive September storm that spawned at least seven tornadoes and knocked out a key transmission line, triggering a "system black" power outage for all of SA. And just days before the tempest, Fairfax revealed Hazelwood's French owner Engie would close the 1600-megawatt plant by April 2017, news that sent wholesale power prices surging.
Trenches are now being dug for what looms as a political battle that will probably last through 2017.On one side lie the Turnbull government, fossil fuel suppliers and right-wing pundits, who say the priority has to be affordable and reliable power.
On the other, Labor and the Greens and clean-energy backers who argue ageing coal-fired power stations need to prepare for an orderly if not accelerated exit to meet Australia's commitments agreed in the Paris climate treaty.

The Hazelwood power station in Victoria is to close by the end of March 2017. Photo: Eddie Jim

Josh Frydenberg, environment and energy minister, ended holidays early on Thursday to rail against states for curbing unconventional gas exploration, which also feeds into higher electricity prices. That's especially true in SA where gas provides all the power that's not from wind or the sun.
He took particular aim at Queensland, where the Labor government under Annastacia Palaszczuk is aiming for a 50 per cent share of renewable by 2030, up from 4.4 per cent in 2015.
"It's going to dramatically send their prices up," Frydenberg told Macquarie Radio on Thursday. "It will inevitably lead to a reduction in the amount of coal-fired power."

'Hard right'
Frydenberg's Labor counterpart, Mark Butler, though, says the Coalition's energy policy was "being dictated by the hard right of the party with the likes of Tony Abbott and Cory Bernardi".
"The culture-war element starts to blind people to pretty clear policy," he says, noting three-quarters of Australia's fleet of power stations were operating beyond the end of their design life and needed to be replaced.
"The Turnbull government leaves a policy vacuum at the federal level, the states will fill the void," he says.
Federal Labor remains committed to a 50 per cent renewable share by 2030, he said, noting the Turnbull government has no target beyond 2020 nor is a target among the terms of reference for its 2017 climate policy review.
For her part, Lily D'Ambrosio, Victoria's energy minister, batted off criticism that her government's policies caused Hazelwood to close.
 "Victorians expect us to work together to take this action [on an orderly exit of coal-fired power] - but it seems like the Commonwealth is more interested in taking political pot shots," D'Ambrosio told Fairfax.
"It's time Josh Frydenberg showed some backbone and stood up to the extreme elements within the Liberal Party by supporting more renewable energy."
Abbott, as if on cue, weighed into the renewables debate on Saturday, declaring that the Turnbull government's "first move this year should be to introduce legislation to protect existing renewable generation but to remove all further mandatory use requirements".
"Despite the reduction that my government secured to the renewable energy target, Australia is still supposed almost to double renewable energy supplies over the next four years," he wrote in a News column. "If it goes ahead, it will be the death knell for the heavy ­industries of Whyalla and Port Pirie in South Australia and will ­almost certainly destroy the aluminium industry everywhere."

Energy prices rise
What is certain is that energy bills are on the rise – although the causes are highly debated.
The closure of Hazelwood alone is likely to raise annual power bills by $30-$200 during the three years to 2018-19 across the eastern states that make up the National Electricity Market, the Australian Electricity Market Operator said late last year. That amounts to an increase of 2-10 per cent.
For NSW, a typical bill that in 2015-16 was $1403 before GST, will rise 9.8 per cent in 2016-17. This rise will slow to an average 3.9 per cent for the following two years, AEMO predicts.
In Victoria, a typical residential bill in 2015-16 was $1358 before GST, and can be expected to rise 0.7 per cent this year. Market offer prices should rise 8.4 per cent in 2017-18 but drop 1.3 per cent the following year, AEMO said.
Bruce Mountain, an energy economist with CME Australia, says rising energy prices will prompt more people to add solar panels and also batteries as prices continue to tumble – much faster than regulators predict.
Tesla's new 13.5-kilowatt-hour Powerwall 2, costing about $8800 before installation, already offers a lower battery price than AEMO had predicted for 2040, he says
An average household in Adelaide, where power prices have doubled in the past eight years to be among the highest in Australia, would now be better off with panels and storage.
While panels alone typically slash demand for electricity from the grid by a third, adding a battery will reduce grid purchases by about 95 per cent, he said.

'Existential threat'
Dylan McConnell, a research fellow at the Melbourne Energy Institute, notes AEMO is predicting 15.5 gigawatts of coal-fired power plants  will be shut by 2030. That's about half of such stations and equivalent to 10 Hazelwoods.
Importantly, AEMO is betting 12GW of new gas-fired power will come on stream "assuming no alternative technologies come to fruition", Mr McConnell said.
However, the open-cycle gas plants that can provide peaking power to complement variable suppliers such as wind and solar farms "face an existential threat from batteries", he said.
The problem for gas is made worse by the current high price in Australia as supplies get exported, doubling cost for local consumers as international rather than domestic prices now apply.
"You know the price of wind in 25 years' time but with gas, you don't know the price six months out," Mr McConnell said.
Matthew Warren, chief executive of the Australian Energy Council, which represents major generators and retailers, says it is unlikely Australia will see another coal-fired power station built "unless there are major technological developments".
"From the industry's perspective, the key is consistent and integrated, national energy and emission reduction policy," Warren said.
 "This is not about good guys versus bad guys, [but] about reducing emissions at the lowest cost without compromising reliability," he said.
Without clear signals, investors won't have the confidence to invest the billions needed to bring new, more efficient capacity online.

RET challenges
Bloomberg New Energy Finance underscored the scale of the challenge even meeting the 2020 Renewable Energy Target of supplying 33,000 gigawatt-hours from clean energy annually from 2020.
Last year, investment in large scale renewables under the RET bounced back from a meagre $US10 million in 2014 and 2015 after the Abbott government's review of the sector threw it into a panic. In 2016, it recovered to $US1.1 billion ($1.45 billion).
 "However it is still well below the $US2.9 billion per annum now needed to satisfy the notional 20 per cent target by 2020," Bloomberg said.
Greens energy spokesman Adam Bandt says the Coalition will be tempted to stir up fears of rising electricity prices "in the hope that they can repeat 2013", when Tony Abbott swept to power in part because of the carbon tax issue.
"They'll try to beat the electricity bill drums but the prices are going up on their watch," he says.
Tennant Reed, national policy adviser to the Australian Industry Group, doubts the renewable energy issue will become as fraught as the carbon tax debate.
 "I don't think there's the same degree of political uniformity on renewable energy as there developed on carbon pricing," Reed said, adding it's a lot more concrete an issue, especially for those panels on their roofs.
There's also a wide recognition that it's an important issue to resolve, not least because renewables will play "a gigantic part of the future energy system", he said.

Links

• NSW drops off the solar pace as demand shifts towards business
• It's official: Sydney has its hottest year ever
• 'Vicious cycle': the biggest global risks over the next decade
• Funding boost for renewable sector to prepare ACT for green future
• The real cost of Trump's climate change denials