26/04/2017

Climate Change Offers Huge Investment Opportunity, Al Gore Tells World Bank

AFR - Sophie Hares (Reuters)

Former US vice-president Al Gore after meeting Donald Trump at Trump Tower in December. AP
Climate change should be grasped as an opportunity to attract vast capital flows into low-carbon investments, create jobs and spur economic growth, rather than viewed as a money-absorbing burden, top officials and experts say.
Trillions of dollars are potentially available for climate investments and countries like India are blazing a trail in bringing cheap solar power to millions, but making sure the world's poorest benefit will prove a big challenge, a World Bank meeting heard late last week.
"It's the biggest opportunity in the history of the world - it's the biggest investment opportunity, but we have to have a clear vision, we have to have policy leadership... to bring the world community together to get the financing that is needed to move the momentum more quickly," former US Vice President Al Gore told the discussion.
World Bank president Jim Yong Kim said financing climate action could offer a more lucrative home for $US8.5 trillion ($11.2 trillion) in negative interest rate bonds, $US24.5 trillion in very low-yielding government-type bonds and a further $US8 trillion in cash, though a clear strategy still needed to be hammered out.
"Quite apart from what you think about climate change, there are opportunities for investments that will give you higher yield than any of those investments in which over $US40 trillion is sitting right now," Kim said.
Swedish Minister for Finance Magdalena Andersson said her country - which introduced a carbon tax 25 years ago - had combined significant emissions cuts with economic growth.
"We really need to mainstream climate policies in all investments and all political decisions," she said. "But we know that the most cost-effective way of getting investments in the right direction... is to put a price on carbon."
In the United States, 70 per cent of new electricity generation capacity last year came from solar and wind, noted Gore, outlining an opportunity to create a global industry based on clean energy sources, retrofitting buildings and adopting sustainable agriculture and forestry.

'Exponential growth'
"What the world needs is the vision that the solution to our global economic malaise is precisely the solution to the climate crisis," said Gore, who thought the United States was more than 50 per cent likely to remain in the Paris climate change agreement.
The key is how to unlock financing for economic growth that also brings climate benefits, according to former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres.
Friday's launch of a $US2 billion green bond fund backed by the International Finance Corporation and asset management firm Amundi could help drive climate investments in developing countries, she added.
"Thinking that climate action is expensive and a burden, and is a responsibility, is so five minutes ago," she said. "The exponential growth of technologies and the drop in prices (have) made this the best opportunity - and this is (the) story of growth of this century."
Following China's lead, countries like India are utilising solar power to "leapfrog" expensive electrification programmes and roll out cheap, clean supplies to those without access to power, the experts said.
Ensuring the world's poorest countries can tap investment to develop climate-resilient infrastructure and agriculture remains crucial, said the World Bank's Kim.
"The poor say we have the boot of climate change on our necks every day," he said.
The world is already dealing with crises linked to climate change pressures, from famine in Africa to Louisiana declaring a state of emergency due to coastal erosion, noted the panel.
"We cannot forget the social justice element of climate action," said Kim. "We've got to maintain our focus and make sure it doesn't all go towards fancy new technology, but (is) going towards, for example, making sure that every time it rains, people don't lose their homes."

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Shaping Conflict In The 21st Century—The Future Of Food And Water Security

Hydropolitic Academy - Sinéad Lehane*

A Turkana woman scoops water from a dry river bed in Nasder, Kenya. A first downpour relieved pastoralists in the drought stricken Kenyan Turakana region after a twelve month span that pushed livestocks and communities to the brink of another looming humanitarian crisis. Photo: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images


Food and water security will shape the 21st century. The interconnection between the availability and access to natural resources, political and economic stability, community wellbeing and the potential for conflict are indisputable. Those who view security through a traditional lens risk overlooking the complexities of conflict triggers as we move further into the 21st century.
Over the next 35 years, population growth, reduced access to fresh water and declining arable land will place mounting pressure on global food and water security. The greatest pressure will be on those countries least equipped to deal with these challenges, increasing the risk of both inter- and intra-state conflict.
Food and water insecurity is not necessarily about a dearth of resources—we have enough food and water globally to meet demand. But demand for food and water is expected to outpace the supply of globally available resources. The majority of the world’s population growth to 2050 is expected to occur in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, but both regions are ill-equipped at present to access the required resources and meet the basic needs of their growing populations.

Population Growth and Movement
By 2050, an increasing number of countries will be unable to feed their people or quench their thirst for water. Land and water won’t move, but food and people can—and will—in response to resource scarcity. Consequently, food systems and markets around the world will continue to become progressively interdependent. In the case of food shortages, we can expect increased migration, across states and regions—but this is likely to intensify the potential for conflict.
The challenge of dealing with refugees largely falls on ill-equipped countries struggling with their own land, food, and water insecurity. For example, Yemen already houses a large number of internally displaced persons due to civil conflict, as well as a large number of refugees from the food-insecure and war-torn Horn of Africa. And now it is expected to become the world’s first source of water-refugees. Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, will likely become the first major city in the world to run out of water in the coming decades.
Land and water won’t move, but food and people can—and will—in response to resource scarcity.
Water Security
Increased resource scarcity will encourage states with arable land or freshwater shortages to become more aggressive in their efforts to expand their resource base. This will most likely manifest in states encroaching on shared resources such as transboundary river basins. There are 263 international basins that cross the political boundaries of two or more countries. These basins cover approximately half of the earth’s surface area and account for an estimated 60 percent of the global freshwater flow.
The Himalayan region is fast emerging as the most likely region for transboundary water disputes and competition in the world. Located about 4,500 meters above sea level, the Tibetan Plateau in the Himalayan Region is the largest repository of fresh water in the world after the Arctic and Antarctic regions. The source for a number of the world’s greatest river systems, this watershed supports close to half the world’s population across China, South Asia and Southeast Asia.
China, driven by severe water shortages and polluted water systems, has begun to harness the plateau’s water resources and divert it to the state’s industrial and densely populated northeast. This has led to heightened tensions with downstream riparian states that rely on the Tibetan Plateau as a means of livelihood, food and water security. Any diversion or damming upstream has the potential to negatively affect downstream riparian states. As water scarcity and degradation rises in many of these states, tensions over water allocations and control will grow. Efforts to find mutually beneficial solutions to water sharing issues will be necessary to reduce the risk of conflict and improve regional water security.

Food Security
Most food motivated conflict between now and 2050 is likely to take the form of civil unrest, largely because more than 80 percent of food produced is consumed within its country of origin.
Egypt, for example, has a strong historical link between civil unrest and food security. Bread riots are not uncommon. Rising prices and poor access to food triggered riots in 2008 and were a key contributing cause for the revolution in 2011. Currently, the state is stuck in a downward spiral; desperately requiring the phasing out of food and fuel subsidies to ensure economic stability and growth, the very act of doing so could lead to increased protests and insecurity. Food security and pricing will continue to play a critical role in Egyptian politics.
In his book, The Coming Famine, Julian Cribb writes that the wars of the 21st century will involve failed states, rebellions, civil conflict, insurgencies and terrorism. All of these elements will be triggered by competition over dwindling resources, rather than global conflicts with clearly defined sides.
More than 40 countries experienced civil unrest following the food price crisis in 2008. The rapid increase in grain prices and prevailing food insecurity in many states is linked to the outbreak of protests, food riots and the breakdown of governance. Widespread food insecurity is a driving factor in creating a disaffected population ripe for rebellion. Given the interconnectivity of food security and political stability, it is likely food will continue to act as a political stressor on regimes in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Addressing Insecurity
Improving food and water security and encouraging resource sharing is critical to creating a stable and secure global environment. While food and water shortages contribute to a rising cycle of violence, improving food and water security outcomes can trigger the opposite and reduce the potential for conflict.
With the global population expected to reach 9 billion by 2040, the likelihood of conflict exacerbated by scarcity over the next century is growing. Conflict is likely to be driven by a number of factors and difficult to address through diplomacy or military force. Population pressures, changing weather, urbanization, migration, a loss of arable land and freshwater resources are just some of the multi-layered stressors present in many states. Future inter-state conflict will move further away from the traditional, clear lines of military conflict and more towards economic control and influence.
Any efforts to limit or mitigate inter- and intra-state conflict must necessarily include proactive, collaborative and global solutions. Taking action on climate change, adopting greater long-term sustainability practices across all industries, and responding to scarcity as and where it occurs, are only a handful of the preventative measures required. National interests may need to be supplanted by the necessity to prioritize what is best for an increasingly globalized system. Food and water insecurity in any part of the world affects everyone. What is ultimately required is unprecedented international cooperation.

Climate Change And Health Are Inextricably Linked

Huffington PostDr. Tedros Adhanom

Graphic courtesy of World Health Organization Climate change and human health programme.
This year’s Earth Day theme promotes environmental and climate literacy. Global citizens need to be empowered with information and facts to act in defense of our planet.
WHO estimates that 12.6 million people die each year as a result of living or working in an unhealthy environment, contributing to nearly one-quarter of deaths around the world. Similarly, a WHO assessment concluded that climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2050. This is a future we must avoid if we are to achieve our universal health coverage targets. That is why the health impacts of climate change are among my five priorities as candidate for Director-General of the WHO.
Climate change and variations particularly impact many aspects of life that are inextricably linked to health: food security, economic livelihoods, air safety and water and sanitation systems. Gender differences in health risks are likely to be worsened by climate change. There is evidence to show women and men suffer different negative health consequences following extreme weather events.
Fortunately, there is renewed global commitment to tackle climate change and implement the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement underlines the urgency to implement climate action in support of sustainable development. Opportunities exist not only to tackle environmental health risk factors, including air safety, food security and water and sanitation, but also to transform the development of health care delivery systems by using low-carbon, and more environmentally friendly approaches.
I’ve seen firsthand that shifts in weather patterns wrought by climate change are devastating millions in my country Ethiopia. In communities affected by extreme weather events or climate variations, vulnerable populations suffer most. Ethiopia has a robust response, designing development policies with a view to mitigating the impact of climate change. I am proud to say that in the fifth edition of the Global Green Economy Index released in September 2016, Ethiopia is ranked 14 globally in terms of climate change performance. In 2014, we were the 26th position on the same list.
My experience in Ethiopia helped shape my vision for WHO. We need to promote evidence-based decision-making and awareness. Specifically, we need to advocate for research and development, champion and support global and regional coalitions, and strengthen national capacity. Another necessary action is to secure funds to address health impacts of climate change. We must advocate for increased financial allocations at the global, regional and national levels. Finally we need to promote sustainability by championing the use of low-carbon approaches in the health sector, including in facility construction, waste management, transportation and water, as well as procurement and supply chain systems.
Putting environmental and climate literacy in the public debate will lead to innovative solutions and increased country commitment. This is how we will fully honour the Paris Agreement. Now is the time to take the positive and concrete actions that can still avert the possible catastrophe of climate change before it is too late.

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25/04/2017

South Australia Heading To 80% Wind And Solar By 2021/22

Renew Economy - 


South Australia is not just likely to have already met its target of 50 per cent renewables some eight years ahead of time, it is now heading for an extraordinary penetration rate of 80 per cent wind and solar by 2021.
That, at least, is the presumption of the Australian Energy Market Operator in a series of scenarios that it prepared for its submission into the Tamblyn review on the proposed second link from Tasmania to the mainland.
AEMO considered three different scenarios to assess whether that new link to Tasmania would be a good deal, and translated those into its own estimates of how much wind and solar would be built in each state over the next 5, 10, 15 and 20 years.
South Australia was an important factor in the AEMO’s deliberations on the extra link to Tasmania, because it suggested that it would make more sense if there was an extra link to South Australia, to take advantage of that state’s growing wind and solar output.
In two of the scenarios that it contemplated – the neutral one (above) based on current policies, and the ambitious climate goal of a 45 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030 (below) – South Australia’s wind and solar capacity doubled over the next five years, before coming to a halt over the following 10 years.
Consider what that means. Its current capacity of around 1,600MW of large-scale wind energy meets just over 40 per cent of total state demand, and the 720MW of rooftop solar adds another 7 per cent. When Hornsdale 2 is completed later this year, that percentage will go beyond 50 per cent.
AEMO’s forecasts suggest the capacity of wind and solar (now that it is cost competitive with wind) will double to around 3,100MW by 2121/2022. Given that the state’s rooftop solar installation is also expected to soar, this suggests at last 80 per cent of the state’s electricity demand could be met by wind and solar.
That’s not necessarily something to worry about, if properly managed, given that the CSIRO and the Energy Networks Australia canvassed a similar scenario in their Future Grids work, which they said would not affect system reliability, although they were suggesting it would happen more than a decade later.
However, it should be noted that AEMO’s forecasts were completed before the state government unveiled its energy security target, which requires that 36 per cent of its local demand be met by local dispatchable resources, and 50 per cent by 2025 – which suggests that wind and solar will need to come with storage attached.
That looks achievable, given that the state is already holding one tender for 100MW/100MWh of battery storage, and many of the new solar proposals are coming “battery ready”. One developer, Reach Solar, says solar and storage is already cheaper than gas and will be “well below” $100/MWh – the current level of wholesale prices – within a few years.
AEMO has already canvassed the likelihood that rooftop solar, alone, could account for 100 per cent of minimum demand on some occasions within the next five to six years, a situation that is likely to be repeated in Western Australia and Tasmania. Even north Queensland is building so much large-scale solar and wind that its capacity will equate to minimum within a few years.

The only scenario where South Australia’s large-scale wind and solar capacity did not double was in the “low demand” scenario, where much of future demand is met by “distributed energy”, primarily rooftop solar and storage, and energy efficiency.

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How Corruption Affects Climate Change

Transparency International


Climate change, like corruption, is a matter of life or death.  
The evidence is hard and clear. 2016 was the hottest year ever on record, extreme “once in a generation” weather events are becoming more regular, and fragile ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef are dying. Climate change is no longer a future threat; it is here.   
As part of the negotiations leading to the Paris Agreement, world leaders agreed to mobilise US $100 billion in climate finance by 2020, and the same amount each year thereafter. How these funds are spent could save the lives of millions now, and ensure billions in the future are set on a safe path.  
The Paris Agreement has come too late to stop the early impact of climate change. Even now the world’s ability to meet the Agreement's targets depend on a real surge of political will, which is shockingly absent from the current US Administration.  
Transparency International's role in this to help ensure that the  billions of dollars already pledged go where they’re needed. This requires transparency.  
"Climate change and corruption share many symptoms. They hit the poorest first and worst. They are caused by powerful individuals or entities seeking short term gain. In the long term, they put livelihoods at risk and threaten entire economies. They thrive on the flaws of national governments: you need strong global cooperation to stop them.”
Vania Montalvo, Transparencia Mexicana
Unfortunately, governance structures managing the response to climate change are under threat. Some of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world fare worst on our Corruption Perceptions Index. The money intended to improve and save lives could be lost through corruption.  
If this happens it could derail the world's efforts to deploy the billions of dollars needed to stop and mitigate climate change. 

What is Climate Finance?
Climate finance is money invested to help countries prevent climate change and adapt to its worst effects.  
This money is pledged by rich, carbon-emitting countries (who have the greater share of responsibility in causing climate change) to poorer, climate-vulnerable countries.  
This money falls into two categories:  
  • Mitigation finance: that’s money to stop climate change getting worse overall (for example, renewable energy, clean transport, carbon markets or reforestation projects) 
  • Adaptation finance: that’s money to help countries and communities already suffering (for example, build flood defenses, irrigation systems or emergency shelters) 
Around the world, journalists and civil society have a huge part to play in sounding the alarm. This is where we come in. There’s a lot we can do and are doing to protect the money and make sure communities on the frontline of climate change have their say in the process and the money is used wisely. 
Transparency International chapters around the world are monitoring climate finance as it enters and is distributed throughout their countries.  
  • Transparency International Bangladesh visited a cyclone shelter site and discovered homes built without walls.  
  • In the Maldives, the lowest-lying nation in the world, millions of dollars have vanished from a tsunami relief fund. People are now trying to find out where it went. 
Where we detect a risk that mismanagement or corruption might occur, we’re calling for reforms. 
We've also created a Handbook for communicators and journalists on climate change and corruption. This guide provides a thorough background on all things climate finance and helps turn complex, technical narratives into compelling stories.  
Remember: 
  1. Climate finance is a matter of life and death 
  2. There is a lot CSOs and governments are doing already - and can still do - to prevent corruption 
  3. That’s why it’s so important to call out corruption and close down loopholes
Tackling climate change and corruption means taking on two of the greatest threats to people and the planet. But if corruption siphons off the money meant to tackle climate change, we threaten the lives of today’s most vulnerable people and of all future generations.

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Labor Fossil Fuel Policy: Lobby Group's Push To Leave Coal In The Ground

Fairfax

Labor is poised to shake up its position on fossil fuels, with a key internal lobby group pushing for Bill Shorten to "start a global conversation" on the future of mining, and leaving coal in the ground.
After months of internal debate, the Labor Environment Action Network (LEAN) has drafted a policy for the party to follow, which would put a ban on any public funds being used to subsidise the fossil fuel industry and shift communities reliant on mining into other industries.
Labor is being asked to implement a fossil fuel policy which would look at leaving fossil fuels in the ground.  Photo: Robert Rough
Federally, Labor has attempted to walk the line between pushing for a shift to renewable energy while remaining in support of fossil fuel mining, with electorates, particularly in Western Australia and Queensland, still heavily reliant on the sector.
But the party has so far resisted pressure, particularly from the Queensland Labor government, to support using the Northern Australian infrastructure fund to help private mining companies build a train line deemed critical to opening the Galilee Basin up to coal mining.

Government 'should get smashed': Jones
The government using taxpayers' dollars to support the Adani coal mine is the kind of policy that will see it "smashed in an election", says 2GB's Alan Jones.

Indian giant Adani has applied for a $900 million concessional loan from the government fund, to help finance a train corridor which would lead from the isolated mine site to the Abbot Point port.
Quarantining public funds from being used to help the fossil fuel industry is crucial to any Labor policy moving forward, LEAN co-ordinator Felicity Wade said, a move she said "most reasonable Australians" would support.
"The fossil fuel industry is a mature industry, these projects should stand or fall on their own financial merits. LEAN also believes existing fossil fuel subsidies should be dismantled," she said.
"If the private sector won't fund the Adani infrastructure, it is an irresponsible government that steps in with taxpayers' funds to prop up an un-economic proposal for private profit."
But she added it was an "uncomfortable fact" that for Australia, and the world, to meet the emissions reduction agreement adopted in Paris in 2015, which aims to keep warming well below 2 degrees celsius, "a significant proportion" of the globe's – and Australia's – fossil fuel reserves would need to remain untouched.
While the draft policy does not specifically address the Carmichael mine – billed as potentially the southern hemisphere's biggest, Ms Wade said "opening a new coal field in a time of spiralling climate change is a major problem".
But despite concerns from some within Labor and LEAN over the Adani project, the group was not going so far as to push Bill Shorten to abandon support for the mine, which is seen as critical to re-invigorating Queensland's economy.
"No individual mine is going to push climate change beyond 1.5 degrees," she said.
"The entire globe has to decide how to limit the exploitation of fossil fuels and how to do it fairly. It's hard to see how it's in our national interest to go it alone."
"Labor policy is built within the international framework in which fossil fuels are counted in the country in which they are burnt, not the source country.
"We need a coherent public policy response that deals with the fact that the carbon budget is finite and a significant percentage of fossil fuels still in the ground can never be exploited if we are to avoid disastrous climate change."
To meet the Paris Agreement, Ms Wade said the international community would have to address the "supply side" of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as limiting what each country used itself.
"Australia should use its middle-power status to lead this conversation," she said.
"With Canada, Australia is one of the only developed countries with large reserves of fossil fuels. It is in our national interest to ensure limits on fossil fuel extraction are fair while also ensuring the globe acts collectively to avoid the disaster of unfettered fossil fuel exploitation."
The proposed policy shift is expected to face fierce opposition from some quarters within the party, with fossil fuel mining still considered a bedrock of the Australian economy.

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24/04/2017

Neil deGrasse Tyson Slams Science Deniers For 'Dismantling Of Our informed Democracy'

EcoWatch - Lorraine Chow

Neil deGrasse Tyson
Neil deGrasse Tyson has an urgent message for Americans, especially for some of our most powerful politicians.
In a video posted April 19 on his Facebook page, which already has more than 16 million views, the famed astrophysicist warns that science denial could ultimately destroy democracy.


Neil deGrasse Tyson Slams Science Deniers for 'Dismantling of Our informed Democracy'

Alongside the video post, Tyson wrote:
"Dear Facebook Universe, I offer this four-minute video on 'Science in America' containing what may be the most important words I have ever spoken. As always, but especially these days, keep looking up."
The video shows how the U.S. rose from—as Tyson calls it— a "backwoods country" to "one of the greatest nations the world has ever known" because of science.
"But in this, the 21st century, when it comes time to make decisions about science, it seems to me that people have lost the ability to judge what is true and what is not," he laments.
"When you have an established scientific emergent truth it is true, whether or not you believe in it," he says. "And the sooner you understand that, the faster we can get on with the political conversations about how to solve the problems that face us."
The video then shows debates on heated scientific topics, including GMOs, climate change and vaccines, as well as a clip of Vice President Mike Pence, then a congressman, saying on the House floor, "Let us demand that educators around America teach evolution not as fact, but as theory."
Tyson says this shift in attitudes is a "recipe for the complete dismantling of our informed democracy."

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Lethal Heating is a citizens' initiative