Red Cross Urges People To Act Now To Adapt To Climate Change

Red Cross

Disasters such as recent Cyclone Debbie are more frequent and more severe

With natural disasters striking more frequently and with greater severity a new Climate Ready Communities Guide has been launched letting people know how they can take action to avoid being a casualty of climate change.

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The guide, produced by Red Cross with funding from the South Australian Government, aims to help communities prepare for a changing climate with more frequent and extreme weather events.
Red Cross Acting Director South Australia Jai O'Toole said climate change is happening and it's here to stay.
"Right now we're seeing along the eastern seaboard just how widespread Cyclone Debbie's devastation was. The poor and most vulnerable are often the hardest hit so it's essential that people are equipped to adapt and thrive in the changing conditions," he said. "The changes we are seeing impact just about every aspect of society. Many people are already doing things to adapt to a changing climate - even if they don't label it as such. It's important we build upon these actions and support all communities to become climate ready."
SA Climate Change Minister Ian Hunter said resilience is the responsibility of the whole community.
"This helps everyone understand how climate change will affect them and what we can all do to help our communities adapt," he said. "South Australia has been an early leader in climate adaptation, not only in preparing our communities but through encouraging them to take advantage of the significant opportunities that taking action on climate change brings."
This summer's heatwaves and record temperatures in South Australia highlight the risk communities face. Extreme temperatures contribute to the deaths of more than 1,000 people aged over 65 each year in Australia, according to the Climate Institute. That number is due to increase substantially in line with Australia's increasing temperatures and more frequent and intense heatwaves. Macquarie University risk scientist Lucinda Coates estimates that, "since 1900, extreme heat events have been responsible for more deaths in Australia than the combined total of deaths from all other natural hazards, barring disease epidemics."
The Red Cross Climate Ready Communities Guide helps people take control over what can seem to be an issue that is beyond their control. It's broken into four parts:

• Understanding what climate change means in your local community 
• Working out who in your community to connect with 
• Shaping a conversation about adapting to a changing climate 
• Taking the conversation into action.

Mr O'Toole said every day Red Cross sees the impacts of climate change on those least able to cope.
"Older people all alone. People who are homeless or without adequate housing or living in hot boxes without any cooling. People with a disability, mental health, alcohol or drug issues. These are the people who most feel the brunt of these weather extremes," he said. "Adapting everything we do to a new and changing climate is a shared responsibility. No one person, group, business or government can do it alone."
The guide was funded from a grant provided by the Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources, and is available on the Red Cross website.

Links

• Climate-Ready Communities: A Guide to Getting Started
• Gender and Climate Change
• Climate change messages across the Pacific
• Pacific leaders unite to address climate change and disasters
• Framework for Resilient Development in the Pacific

When Political Fantasy Trumps Scientific Fact

Millennium Alliance for Humanity and Biosphere - Julian Cribb

March for Science Portland, Oregon US | Another Believer | Wikipedia | CC BY-SA 3.0

During the 1930s, around ten million Russians and Ukrainians starved to death in a horrific event known as Holodomor. Historians have attributed this disaster in part to the quack theories of Trofim Lysenko, Stalin’s hand-picked boss of Soviet agricultural science.  It was a disastrous case of politics distorting the objectivity of science, for its own ends.
Today, ‘Lysenkoism’ – the deliberate suppression of science by politics – is alive and kicking, not in totalitarian states, but in supposedly enlightened democracies such as the United States and Australia.
In its course, scientists in both countries are being purged, intimidated, their funding axed, their institutions dismembered and their findings suppressed – all because the objective scientific evidence they discover doesn’t support the political delusions of ruling elites and their corporate masters.
The aim is to keep the well-evidenced facts of climate change out of the media and public eye by choking off the flow of trustworthy information. The method is simple: shoot the messenger. In the case of Lysenko, some 3000 Russian biologists, including the great Nikolai Vavilov, were persecuted, purged, forced to recant their science, sent to the Gulag or in some cases, actually shot.

Trofim Lysenko

Trofim Lysenko was an obscure Ukrainian plant breeder who rejected Mendelian genetic theory, and claimed he could revolutionise agriculture by transmitting superior acquired traits from one generation of wheat to the next. With the USSR facing crop failure and widening hunger, his claims impressed the leadership of the Communist party, including Stalin, who appointed him director of Genetics for the Academy of Sciences. From this power base, Lysenko began systematically to eliminate his rivals – all those who adhered to the science of genetics.
Cunningly, he invited scientists to speak at prestigious conferences, then purged all whose views departed from his own. This set back the delivery of improved crop varieties, which could have prevented starvation, by a generation or more. Not until the mid-1960s did the USSR cut itself loose from Lysenko’s crank theories, and food self-sufficiency began to recover.
Today, public-spirited scientists in America and Australia are being purged for similar reasons – for speaking out about the evidenced truths of science in the face of right wing politics which denies those truths and wants them stamped out.
In the US, Trump is in the process of:

1. Drastic cuts to science funding
2. Placing his own ‘Lysenkos’ at the head of key Federal agencies and departments
3. Abandoning the US commitment to the world plans to limit greenhouse emissions
4. Revoking Obama’s measures to prepare America for climate change
5. Applying political censorship to the public science statements of government departments and agencies
6. Deleting public advice about climate change and US carbon emissions from government websites.

His main instrument of enforcement is a $7 billion cut to the science budget affecting, among others, the US National Science Foundation, the Environment Protection Agency, the National Oceans and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), NASA, the Department of Energy, the US Geological Survey, the Departments of Agriculture and of Energy, all of which are involved either in climate science, environmental or renewable energy research.
“Make no mistake: these numbers would be crippling to much of the federal science apparatus,” Matt Hourihan, director of budget and policy at the American Association for the Advancement of Science commented.
Drinking from the same stagnant well of anti-science, Australia’s LNP government has overseen the purging of CSIRO climate and water scientists and the closure of its atmospheric research division, as well as ongoing moves to cut down renewable energy funding and science, delaying tactics over climate action and ongoing efforts to open up new sources of carbon pollution such as the Adani mine and gas extraction.
Redundancies at the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority – significantly in its climate change group – suggest that coral science is also on the hit-list, as the Government moves to suppress public discussion of the devastation to Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. A new twist is the proposal of  ‘technofixes’ – like pumping cold water onto tiny parts of the Reef – with little or no real impact, but providing a political smokescreen to justify continued inaction and fossil fuels development.
Commenting on the Turnbull Government’s recent science statement, Dr. Peter Tangney of Finders University lamented “the current government’s track record of endorsing scientific research and promoting investment only when it is politically expedient to do so, and ignoring or seeking to discredit science when it is not.”
Ordinary people are sometimes amazed at the ease with which politicians lie about issues like climate change. The answer is that, in the heightened adversarial context of today’s politics, the only ‘truth’ many of today’s diminutive politicians acknowledge is political expediency – not facts.
The problem with scientific facts is they cannot be manipulated or discarded quite as easily as political ‘truths’. They are supported by hard evidence –often truckloads of it– by peer review, and by scientists making confirmatory findings all around the planet. Faced with such solid certainties, the recourse of desperate politicians is now to shoot the messenger, to try to intimidate or shut down public good science and gag it when it tries to warn us about what is really happening to our planet.
Lysenkoism was the manifestation of a Soviet political delusion that ended up costing millions of lives. The historical irony is that the same sort of irrational, ideology-based delusion has now captured Australia’s Liberal and America’s Republican parties.
Climate denial is a contemporary political fantasy that will cost billions of lives, in the famines, disasters, refugee tsunamis and wars that will accompany an unchecked 4-5 degree rise in global temperatures by 2100. No intelligent government on the planet supports it – only the blindly irresponsible.
It is time we all stood up for our scientists. They are only trying to serve society by giving us the facts. We may not like the truths they deliver – but suppressing them will not make those facts less real.
On Earth Day, April 22, there were protests across America and Australia and around the world in  defence of science. Over 600 communities took part to speak up for reason and rationality in the face of the politicians’ denialism and suppression. On April 29, the People’s Climate Movement provides another opportunity to support a vision for a future that protects our families, our communities, and the climate –to speak for our grandkids, who otherwise will pay the price of the current ruinous leadership.

Links

• Surviving the 21st Century
• Experts Speak Out About The Government's National Science Statement: What Does It Mean For Australia?
• The Trump budget assault on science, in one chart
• World Facing A Water Crisis

Retirement Savings At Risk From Climate Change: John Hewson

Fairfax - Clancy Yeates

Australian retirement savings could be put at risk unless regulators force the financial sector to be more transparent in managing the investment risks created by climate change.

Billion dollar reef risk
The impact of climate change and Tropical Cyclone Debbie could cost the Queensland tourism industry $1 billion according to a new report form the Climate Council. Courtesy ABC, the Climate Council.

That is is the view of former Liberal leader John Hewson, who is calling for regulators to take a much tougher line on how the financial sector handles the risks associated with global warming.
Dr Hewson, chair of the Asset Owners Disclosure Project, made the call as new rankings showed many of the world's 500 largest asset owners, including some of Australia's biggest superannuation funds, were taking a more active approach to protecting their portfolios from climate change risks.
Even so, the AODP's annual rankings still labelled many financial giants as "bystanders" in their response to climate risks, and Dr Hewson said mandatory disclosure of climate risks was needed to prevent an "Australian train wreck".
Because of the country's high carbon intensity at a time when vital trade partner China is also trying to shift towards renewable energy, he argued Australia was particularly exposed to "systemic financial risk" caused by climate change.
"With the Australian government missing in action, the RBA, APRA and ASIC must drive change in fund and company reporting. Failure to do so may cost us our retirement savings," Dr Hewson said.
The AODP, a not-for-profit body that produces the annual ranking, is part of a growing international push among investors and regulators for greater action to avoid the risks of a "carbon bubble".

Former Liberal party leader Dr John Hewson says regulators must require financial firms to disclose their climate change risks. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

Much of this activity is focused on greater disclosure, in the belief more information would allow markets to "price in" the risks created by climate change.
The survey by the AODP said there had been a 19 per cent increase in the number of pension funds, insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds that were taking action in response to climate change. Yet there were still 201 asset owners that were ignoring climate risk, and 187 judged "bystanders" – those taking only the first steps in acknowledging these risks.

Avoiding a 'carbon bubble' is front of mind for a growing number of investors. Photo: Simon Bosch

Australian funds were ranked among global leaders, with the Local Government Super fund reclaiming the top position, First State Super in third place, and Australian Super ranked 18th.
For the first time, the survey also ranked the world's 50 largest asset management businesses.

With the Australian government missing in action, the RBA, APRA and ASIC must drive change in fund and company reporting
John Hewson

The only Australian manager included in this list was Macquarie Group, which the AODP report gave a D or "bystander" rating on its management of climate change risks, partly because the bank did not complete its survey.
Macquarie said it "rejects any suggestion it does not recognise the financial risks of climate change," pointing to its disclosure of carbon exposure, and its large investments in renewable energy.
"As a significant global asset manager, Macquarie is fully committed to ensuring environmental risks are identified and managed responsibly in our business activities and relationships, and each member of staff shares the responsibility for identifying and managing these risks as part of normal business practice," a Macquarie spokeswoman said.
"As one of the world's largest investors in renewable energy, having invested or arranged over $A14 billion into renewable energy projects since 2010, Macquarie is particularly aware of the opportunities and responsibilities that will continue to accompany the transition to a low-carbon economy."
Macquarie was this month given the green light to buy the United Kingdom's Green Investment Bank in a $3.9 billion deal, despite some critics doubting the bank's commitment to carrying out the company's environment goals.
The AODP ranked asset owners and managers on the basis of their governance and strategy, portfolio risk management, and their metrics and targets.
The report comes after a committee including Coalition, Labor and Greens Senators last week recommended several policy changes to improve how financial risks of climate change are disclosed to investors.
The Senate inquiry, which reported on Friday, said the corporate watchdog should review its guidance to directors on climate risks, while the Australian Securities Exchange should provide guidance on when disclosure of climate risks was needed.
The inquiry also said the government should review the Corporations Act to consider whether financial reporting obligations should be changed to force companies to make a "holistic" consideration of the viability of their business model.
In February, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority executive board member Geoff Summerhayes​ also said it would keep a closer eye on how banks, insurance companies and asset managers responded to the financial risks of global warming.

Links

• Investors pushing business to avoid a carbon-bubble bust
• Macquarie Group Reaffirms Commitment To Climate Change
• Risky Business: How Companies Are Getting Smart About Climate Change
• World Bank To Focus Future Investment On Clean Energy
• The Burning Issue In Climate Change
• Australian Super Funds Lose $5.6 Billion On Fossil Fuel Investments
• Climate Change 2016: Investors Vow To Pour Trillions Of Dollars Into Clean Energy Transition
• Climate Change Offers Huge Investment Opportunity, Al Gore Tells World Bank
• Fake News, Politicians' Dishonesty Skewing Climate Debate, John Hewson Warns
• It's Not Easy Being Green On The ASX

Adani Coalmine At Heightened Risk Of Becoming A Stranded Asset, Report Says

The Guardian - Gareth Hutchens

Carmichael project likely to be ‘cash flow negative’ for most of its operating life, according to Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

People protest against Adani’s Carmichael coalmine outside the Indian high commission in Canberra. Coral scientists have argued the coal needs to stay in the ground if the Great Barrier Reef is to be protected from the impacts of climate change. Photograph: Lukas Coch/AAP

The risk of the controversial Adani Carmichael coalmine becoming a stranded asset has increased in the last 12 months, according to a new report.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), says the Carmichael project is likely to be “cash flow negative” for the majority its operating life, even with concessional loans.
The IEEFA’s new report, Adani’s Remote Prospects, warns Adani Enterprises is not in a strong financial position.
It has thrown into doubt the wisdom of lending the project $1bn worth of taxpayers’ dollar through the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF).
It comes a week after John Hewson, a former Liberal party leader, warned the Carmichael coalmine was already a “stranded asset” and the last thing the Turnbull government should be doing is lending Adani $1bn.
The report, released on Tuesday, shows Adani Enterprise Ltd’s equity market capitalisation has declined from over US$10bn in 2015 to US$1.9bn, while its net debt has grown to US$2.5bn.
Adani Enterprises Ltd owns the Carmichael coal project via its Australian subsidiary Adani Mining Pty Ltd.
It shows Adani Mining has current debt of US$1.1bn secured against shareholders’ equity of a negative A$236m, with the company only remaining solvent due to the ongoing annual support of its Indian parent entity.
“[Which is] a serious financial risk for any existing or prospective external creditor or supplier,” the report warns.

The report also shows the leveraged nature of Adani Enterprises is mirrored across the whole Adani Group. Since early 2015, it says the Adani group has seen estimated net indebtedness rise by US$3bn to US$15.9bn.
The report argues that, beyond the estimated A$1.4bn already sunk in the Carmichael coalmine project, the project may require a further A$5.3bn of investment to get the project operating, and Adani Enterprise will struggle to contribute equity to the project.
“The project risks over-stretching the balance sheet of Adani Enterprises to an extreme degree, creating a high level of financial risk to both shareholders and potential financiers,” the report warns.
Tim Buckley, the director of energy research at IEEFA, a former top-rated equities analyst at Citigroup, said the Carmichael project had the fundamentals of a “feckless entrepreneurial scheme equivalent to those last seen in Australia in the 1980’s”.
“Absent massive taxpayer subsidies, no independent investor would give the proposal a second glance given its strategic and financial predicament, particularly set against a rapidly declining market for seaborne thermal coal,” Buckley said.
“Adani took a calculated business risk on this speculative project in 2010 but the world has changed.
“No longer strategically aligned nor financially robust, today it is less a gamble, more a shot in the dark,” he said.
In December last year, the government’s NAIF granted Adani “conditional approval” for a $1bn loan to Adani to build a rail line between its proposed Carmichael coalmine and the Abbot Point shipping terminal in Queensland.
The rail line, if built, would allow Adani to build the country’s biggest coalmine and open up the Galilee Basin to further mines by linking them to an export terminal.
Coral scientists have argued the coal needs to stay in the ground if the Great Barrier Reef is to be protected from the impacts of climate change. The economic benefits of the proposed mine are also disputed.
Hewson, a professor in economics, has criticised the Turnbull government for considering lending Adani nearly $1bn in taxpayer money via the NAIF.
Hewson said the fund should only be used to help projects become commercially viable but the $1bn would be used by Adani to build a railway to a coalmine that Australia’s major banks have refused to fund.

Links

• John Hewson says $1bn loan to Adani the 'last thing' Coalition should be doing
• Adani is not just another coalmine, it is a turning point for the nation
• 'Irreversible consequences': Adani coalmine granted unlimited water access for 60 years
• Former Greens leader Bob Brown to launch alliance to oppose Adani coalmine
• Adani coalmine activists gear up to fight: ‘This will dwarf the Franklin blockade’
• Adani coalmine 'covertly funded' by World Bank, says report
• Fossil fuel divestment is worth $7tn globally yet Australia still clings to coal
• Barnaby Joyce endorses loan for Adani's Carmichael coalmine
• Adani Carmichael mine: Australia Institute demands answers from Turnbull in full-page ad
• Opposition to public funding for Adani rail link outweighs support, poll finds

Climate Change Offers Huge Investment Opportunity, Al Gore Tells World Bank

AFR - Sophie Hares (Reuters)

Former US vice-president Al Gore after meeting Donald Trump at Trump Tower in December. AP

Climate change should be grasped as an opportunity to attract vast capital flows into low-carbon investments, create jobs and spur economic growth, rather than viewed as a money-absorbing burden, top officials and experts say.
Trillions of dollars are potentially available for climate investments and countries like India are blazing a trail in bringing cheap solar power to millions, but making sure the world's poorest benefit will prove a big challenge, a World Bank meeting heard late last week.
"It's the biggest opportunity in the history of the world - it's the biggest investment opportunity, but we have to have a clear vision, we have to have policy leadership... to bring the world community together to get the financing that is needed to move the momentum more quickly," former US Vice President Al Gore told the discussion.
World Bank president Jim Yong Kim said financing climate action could offer a more lucrative home for $US8.5 trillion ($11.2 trillion) in negative interest rate bonds, $US24.5 trillion in very low-yielding government-type bonds and a further $US8 trillion in cash, though a clear strategy still needed to be hammered out.
"Quite apart from what you think about climate change, there are opportunities for investments that will give you higher yield than any of those investments in which over $US40 trillion is sitting right now," Kim said.
Swedish Minister for Finance Magdalena Andersson said her country - which introduced a carbon tax 25 years ago - had combined significant emissions cuts with economic growth.
"We really need to mainstream climate policies in all investments and all political decisions," she said. "But we know that the most cost-effective way of getting investments in the right direction... is to put a price on carbon."
In the United States, 70 per cent of new electricity generation capacity last year came from solar and wind, noted Gore, outlining an opportunity to create a global industry based on clean energy sources, retrofitting buildings and adopting sustainable agriculture and forestry.

'Exponential growth'
"What the world needs is the vision that the solution to our global economic malaise is precisely the solution to the climate crisis," said Gore, who thought the United States was more than 50 per cent likely to remain in the Paris climate change agreement.
The key is how to unlock financing for economic growth that also brings climate benefits, according to former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres.
Friday's launch of a $US2 billion green bond fund backed by the International Finance Corporation and asset management firm Amundi could help drive climate investments in developing countries, she added.
"Thinking that climate action is expensive and a burden, and is a responsibility, is so five minutes ago," she said. "The exponential growth of technologies and the drop in prices (have) made this the best opportunity - and this is (the) story of growth of this century."
Following China's lead, countries like India are utilising solar power to "leapfrog" expensive electrification programmes and roll out cheap, clean supplies to those without access to power, the experts said.
Ensuring the world's poorest countries can tap investment to develop climate-resilient infrastructure and agriculture remains crucial, said the World Bank's Kim.
"The poor say we have the boot of climate change on our necks every day," he said.
The world is already dealing with crises linked to climate change pressures, from famine in Africa to Louisiana declaring a state of emergency due to coastal erosion, noted the panel.
"We cannot forget the social justice element of climate action," said Kim. "We've got to maintain our focus and make sure it doesn't all go towards fancy new technology, but (is) going towards, for example, making sure that every time it rains, people don't lose their homes."

Links

• Macquarie Group Reaffirms Commitment To Climate Change
• Risky Business: How Companies Are Getting Smart About Climate Change
• World Bank To Focus Future Investment On Clean Energy
• The Burning Issue In Climate Change
• Australian Super Funds Lose $5.6 Billion On Fossil Fuel Investments
• Climate Change 2016: Investors Vow To Pour Trillions Of Dollars Into Clean Energy Transition

Shaping Conflict In The 21st Century—The Future Of Food And Water Security

Hydropolitic Academy - Sinéad Lehane*

A Turkana woman scoops water from a dry river bed in Nasder, Kenya. A first downpour relieved pastoralists in the drought stricken Kenyan Turakana region after a twelve month span that pushed livestocks and communities to the brink of another looming humanitarian crisis. Photo: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images

Food and water security will shape the 21^st century. The interconnection between the availability and access to natural resources, political and economic stability, community wellbeing and the potential for conflict are indisputable. Those who view security through a traditional lens risk overlooking the complexities of conflict triggers as we move further into the 21^st century.
Over the next 35 years, population growth, reduced access to fresh water and declining arable land will place mounting pressure on global food and water security. The greatest pressure will be on those countries least equipped to deal with these challenges, increasing the risk of both inter- and intra-state conflict.
Food and water insecurity is not necessarily about a dearth of resources—we have enough food and water globally to meet demand. But demand for food and water is expected to outpace the supply of globally available resources. The majority of the world’s population growth to 2050 is expected to occur in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, but both regions are ill-equipped at present to access the required resources and meet the basic needs of their growing populations.

Population Growth and Movement
By 2050, an increasing number of countries will be unable to feed their people or quench their thirst for water. Land and water won’t move, but food and people can—and will—in response to resource scarcity. Consequently, food systems and markets around the world will continue to become progressively interdependent. In the case of food shortages, we can expect increased migration, across states and regions—but this is likely to intensify the potential for conflict.
The challenge of dealing with refugees largely falls on ill-equipped countries struggling with their own land, food, and water insecurity. For example, Yemen already houses a large number of internally displaced persons due to civil conflict, as well as a large number of refugees from the food-insecure and war-torn Horn of Africa. And now it is expected to become the world’s first source of water-refugees. Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, will likely become the first major city in the world to run out of water in the coming decades.

Land and water won’t move, but food and people can—and will—in response to resource scarcity.

Water Security
Increased resource scarcity will encourage states with arable land or freshwater shortages to become more aggressive in their efforts to expand their resource base. This will most likely manifest in states encroaching on shared resources such as transboundary river basins. There are 263 international basins that cross the political boundaries of two or more countries. These basins cover approximately half of the earth’s surface area and account for an estimated 60 percent of the global freshwater flow.
The Himalayan region is fast emerging as the most likely region for transboundary water disputes and competition in the world. Located about 4,500 meters above sea level, the Tibetan Plateau in the Himalayan Region is the largest repository of fresh water in the world after the Arctic and Antarctic regions. The source for a number of the world’s greatest river systems, this watershed supports close to half the world’s population across China, South Asia and Southeast Asia.
China, driven by severe water shortages and polluted water systems, has begun to harness the plateau’s water resources and divert it to the state’s industrial and densely populated northeast. This has led to heightened tensions with downstream riparian states that rely on the Tibetan Plateau as a means of livelihood, food and water security. Any diversion or damming upstream has the potential to negatively affect downstream riparian states. As water scarcity and degradation rises in many of these states, tensions over water allocations and control will grow. Efforts to find mutually beneficial solutions to water sharing issues will be necessary to reduce the risk of conflict and improve regional water security.

Food Security
Most food motivated conflict between now and 2050 is likely to take the form of civil unrest, largely because more than 80 percent of food produced is consumed within its country of origin.
Egypt, for example, has a strong historical link between civil unrest and food security. Bread riots are not uncommon. Rising prices and poor access to food triggered riots in 2008 and were a key contributing cause for the revolution in 2011. Currently, the state is stuck in a downward spiral; desperately requiring the phasing out of food and fuel subsidies to ensure economic stability and growth, the very act of doing so could lead to increased protests and insecurity. Food security and pricing will continue to play a critical role in Egyptian politics.
In his book, The Coming Famine, Julian Cribb writes that the wars of the 21^st century will involve failed states, rebellions, civil conflict, insurgencies and terrorism. All of these elements will be triggered by competition over dwindling resources, rather than global conflicts with clearly defined sides.
More than 40 countries experienced civil unrest following the food price crisis in 2008. The rapid increase in grain prices and prevailing food insecurity in many states is linked to the outbreak of protests, food riots and the breakdown of governance. Widespread food insecurity is a driving factor in creating a disaffected population ripe for rebellion. Given the interconnectivity of food security and political stability, it is likely food will continue to act as a political stressor on regimes in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Addressing Insecurity
Improving food and water security and encouraging resource sharing is critical to creating a stable and secure global environment. While food and water shortages contribute to a rising cycle of violence, improving food and water security outcomes can trigger the opposite and reduce the potential for conflict.
With the global population expected to reach 9 billion by 2040, the likelihood of conflict exacerbated by scarcity over the next century is growing. Conflict is likely to be driven by a number of factors and difficult to address through diplomacy or military force. Population pressures, changing weather, urbanization, migration, a loss of arable land and freshwater resources are just some of the multi-layered stressors present in many states. Future inter-state conflict will move further away from the traditional, clear lines of military conflict and more towards economic control and influence.
Any efforts to limit or mitigate inter- and intra-state conflict must necessarily include proactive, collaborative and global solutions. Taking action on climate change, adopting greater long-term sustainability practices across all industries, and responding to scarcity as and where it occurs, are only a handful of the preventative measures required. National interests may need to be supplanted by the necessity to prioritize what is best for an increasingly globalized system. Food and water insecurity in any part of the world affects everyone. What is ultimately required is unprecedented international cooperation.

*Sinéad Lehane is research manager for Future Directions International’s Global Food and Water Crises Research program. Her current research projects include Australia’s food system and water security in the Tibetan Plateau region. More broadly, she is responsible for research and strategic analysis of food and water security in the Indian Ocean region.

Links

• Conflict, Climate Change and Record High Food Prices Contribute to Rising Global Food Insecurity
• Report says climate change poses risk to national and international security
• Is Climate Change Behind the Syrian Civil War?
• How Climate Change Helped Lead to the Uprising in Syria
• Food and Water Security in the Middle East to 2030: An Overview of FDI’s Landmark Study
• Strategic Competition in Afghanistan: Why Leveraging Kabul’s Food and Water Security Situation Must be Earned, not Expected
• Crisis in the Horn of Africa: Are we seeing the Normalisation of Food and Water Insecurity?

Climate Change And Health Are Inextricably Linked

Huffington Post - Dr. Tedros Adhanom

Graphic courtesy of World Health Organization Climate change and human health programme.

This year’s Earth Day theme promotes environmental and climate literacy. Global citizens need to be empowered with information and facts to act in defense of our planet.

WHO estimates that 12.6 million people die each year as a result of living or working in an unhealthy environment, contributing to nearly one-quarter of deaths around the world. Similarly, a WHO assessment concluded that climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2050. This is a future we must avoid if we are to achieve our universal health coverage targets. That is why the health impacts of climate change are among my five priorities as candidate for Director-General of the WHO.
Climate change and variations particularly impact many aspects of life that are inextricably linked to health: food security, economic livelihoods, air safety and water and sanitation systems. Gender differences in health risks are likely to be worsened by climate change. There is evidence to show women and men suffer different negative health consequences following extreme weather events.

Fortunately, there is renewed global commitment to tackle climate change and implement the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement underlines the urgency to implement climate action in support of sustainable development. Opportunities exist not only to tackle environmental health risk factors, including air safety, food security and water and sanitation, but also to transform the development of health care delivery systems by using low-carbon, and more environmentally friendly approaches.

I’ve seen firsthand that shifts in weather patterns wrought by climate change are devastating millions in my country Ethiopia. In communities affected by extreme weather events or climate variations, vulnerable populations suffer most. Ethiopia has a robust response, designing development policies with a view to mitigating the impact of climate change. I am proud to say that in the fifth edition of the Global Green Economy Index released in September 2016, Ethiopia is ranked 14 globally in terms of climate change performance. In 2014, we were the 26th position on the same list.

My experience in Ethiopia helped shape my vision for WHO. We need to promote evidence-based decision-making and awareness. Specifically, we need to advocate for research and development, champion and support global and regional coalitions, and strengthen national capacity. Another necessary action is to secure funds to address health impacts of climate change. We must advocate for increased financial allocations at the global, regional and national levels. Finally we need to promote sustainability by championing the use of low-carbon approaches in the health sector, including in facility construction, waste management, transportation and water, as well as procurement and supply chain systems.

Putting environmental and climate literacy in the public debate will lead to innovative solutions and increased country commitment. This is how we will fully honour the Paris Agreement. Now is the time to take the positive and concrete actions that can still avert the possible catastrophe of climate change before it is too late.

Links

• World Health Organization Climate change and human health programme
• Donald Trump’s Earth Day Statement Is Shameful
• Happy Earth Day! Here Are All The Terrible Things Donald Trump Has Done So Far.
• Thousands Across The U.S. And The Globe March For Science In Defiance Of Donald Trump