24/09/2017

Solar Batteries: Australians See Energy Storage As The Future, Poll Finds

ABC NewsSarah Farnsworth | Rebecca Armitage

Murray Green installed a solar battery in his Sydney home last year. (ABC News: Rebecca Armitage)
Key points:
  • A survey found almost three-quarters of people believe solar batteries will become commonplace
  • 68 per cent of households with solar panels are considering purchasing a battery
  • The price of storage batteries in the first half of 2017 only dropped by 5 per cent
As power prices continue to surge, Australians believe household solar storage batteries are the key to cheaper and more reliable energy, according to a new poll of 2,000 households.
The Climate Council found nearly three-quarters of those surveyed believe batteries, coupled with solar systems, would become commonplace within 10 years.
Of those who already had solar systems, 68 per cent were considering adding a household storage battery.
Most said the primary motivation for buying a solar battery was to reduce power bills.
Only 6 per cent believed consumers were driven by the need to protect their homes from blackouts.


What do you think is the primary motivation for people
adding batteries to their home or business?
What Australians understand about solar batteries Source: Climate Council Get the data Embed
More than half said they expected large-scale batteries like the one being built by Elon Musk in South Australia would also become common in the next 10 years.
"It shows that Australians do understand that renewables — particularly solar and increasingly battery storage — provide a solution to high power prices," the Climate Council's Andrew Stock said.
"I think it's very encouraging that Australians really do get the importance of new technology. There is very little appetite for keeping aging coal fire stations running in the Australian populace, frankly," he said.
'It protects us against price rises'
Murray Green is keeping track of his power bills, which he says have halved since installing a battery (ABC News: Rebecca Armitage)
New South Wales resident Murray Green installed a home battery last year.
"Right now, it's not really worth it to feed the electricity back into the grid so using the battery to store the power and then consume it yourself, it just seemed like a better way to use the solar panels," he said.
"Power prices are going up and so it makes sense to try to reduce the amount of power you're buying from the grid. I think now for me, the higher the prices go, the sooner the system will pay off."
"It protects us against price rises in the future."
The price of storage batteries in the first half of 2017 only dropped by 5 per cent on the back of a significant fall at the end of last year.
Consultancy firm Sunwiz founder Warwick Johnston said while the number of battery installations had doubled from last year, many people were waiting for the price of batteries to drop significantly.
"We expect to see a price reduction of 30 per cent in the next couple of years," Mr Johnston said.
It's currently estimated to take 10 years to pay back the initial outlay for a solar and storage system, with batteries only having a decade-long shelf life.
Mr Johnston said he expected there would be a surge in uptake when it took only seven years to recoup the cost of the battery.
Should you wait for battery prices to drop?
Murray Green installed 20 solar panels on his roof and a Tesla battery in his garage in August 2016 (Supplied: Murray Green)
Andrew Stock, who has more than 40 years of experience in the energy industry, said in some areas people should not wait for the price to drop.
"In some states that have high power prices, analysis shows it's economical now to install batteries. Sunny states like South Australia and Queensland have relatively high power prices, so its quite economic to install battery systems," Mr Stock said.
Tesla is one of the more popular solar batteries in Australia (ABC News: Alex Mann)
"It is many, many times more expensive to import [electricity] so if you can install batteries, if they are modest in size and you have solar on your roof, that will allow you to offset that expensive power you draw from the grid," he said.
Energy economist and director of Carbon and Energy Markets, Bruce Mountain, agreed South Australians would benefit from installing batteries sooner rather than later.
"That is simply because battery and solar prices have come down, and in South Australia energy prices have gone up so much," Mr Mountain said.
Mr Mountain said he wanted the Federal Government to invest more in the local industry to bring down solar battery costs, instead of seeking to subsidise coal fire power generators like Liddell.
"They can accelerate the installation of these batteries, they can grow a local equipment suppliers and often than incentive creates new industry and scale economies," Mr Mountain said.
"The household would benefit, but the system as a whole would benefit as well, because a household of battery and solar gives to the grid a far more stable demand," he said.

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Where’s the Great “Climate Change Novel”? A Conversation with Amitav Ghosh

Los Angeles Review of BooksSteve Paulson*


Novelist Amitav Ghosh
THE EVIDENCE of climate change is all around us — record temperatures, superstorms, the crack in the Larsen B Ice Shelf. The news keep getting grimmer, and once you really take in the worst-case scenarios of the next few decades, it’s hard not to feel numb. But if global warming is the most pressing problem facing the planet, why do we see so few references to it in contemporary novels, apart from post-apocalyptic science fiction? Where is the great Climate Change Novel?
These questions haunt the acclaimed novelist Amitav Ghosh. He believes artists of all kinds — but especially writers — have a moral responsibility to confront the issue, and so far, they’ve failed abysmally. In his recent nonfiction book, The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable, he makes the case that climate solutions can’t be left to scientists, technocrats, and politicians. “The climate crisis is also a crisis of culture, and thus of imagination,” he writes. We need radically new ways of thinking, even a new paradigm, to see how the Anthropocene is already transforming our lives. And who’s best equipped to show us this reimagined landscape? Artists, of course.
It’s a nuanced and often dazzling argument. Ghosh draws on a wide range of sources — climate scientists, philosophers like Bruno Latour and Timothy Morton, Pope Francis’s encyclical letter, postcolonial theorists. He believes the inward turn of modern art has cut it off from the natural world, and that we desperately need a new approach.
Ghosh is steeped in the cultural and political dimensions of literature. In his own novels like The Glass Palace and Sea of Poppies, he has chronicled the lives of the dispossessed and the powerless. But as he admits, his fiction has only indirectly tackled climate change. And the challenge is daunting. How do you make a compelling story out of an abstract idea like gradual climate change? Even cataclysmic events like floods and hurricanes — what Ghosh calls the “fingerprints of climate change” — present their own artistic problems.
I talked with Ghosh about the failure of contemporary art, why culture cannot be separated from nature, and his own traumatic experience of severe weather.
You can listen to his interview with Ghosh here.
¤

STEVE PAULSON: You tell a story from 1978 when you were a student in Delhi and a storm came whipping through the city. What happened?
AMITAV GHOSH: It was really something much stranger than a storm. It was a time of year when there aren’t any storms in that part of the world. But that day there was a hailstorm. I was, I think, 21, and I decided to pack up my books and head back to my room in the university. The weather suddenly got worse. When I looked over my shoulder, I saw this sort of strange finger extruding from a cloud. That was really the only word I had for it at that time, because such phenomena were completely unprecedented in northern India in those days. Suddenly I saw this thing whipping down directly at me and I had the presence of mind to look for a place to hide. If it were today, I’d probably stop to take a selfie and would not live to tell the tale, but I did have the sense to go and hide. It was a tornado — the only tornado in the recorded meteorological history of Delhi. And it went down that one road for a quarter of a mile or so. And I happened to be there on that road that day, just at that time.

You write that you almost stopped to seek shelter in a place that was destroyed by the tornado.
Yes, that’s right. Other people were huddling against a glass door under an awning. I could tell that there wouldn’t be much shelter for me there. So I ran around the corner and managed to find a little balcony to shelter under. All of this literally took about a minute, though in my memory it lasted forever. After the tornado had passed, I went back and looked, and those people had been sucked through the door. I think dozens were killed. Many had been terribly hurt. It was a disaster scene like I’ve never witnessed. It was extraordinary. When I looked down the road, buses had been carried into colleges, whole sides of buildings had been ripped out. One was just dumbstruck.

When you look back at that experience, what do you make of it?
It’s a very strange thing. For many years I did try to write about that experience. I’m a novelist, and novelists like to put stuff like this in their books. And I’ve often tried but I was never able to do it simply because the very bizarreness of the experience, the very improbability of it, was such that it was really impossible to put it in a book. The novel has its own conventions of probability and believability. So someone is walking down a road and at just that moment this completely unprecedented thing happens. How do you put that into a novel?

You’re saying truth really is stranger than fiction.
That is exactly the case. Truth is much, much stranger than fiction. In fact, most of the time fiction is a very watered-down version of the world. In a novel you try to create a world that will make sense to the reader and somehow events that have such an extreme degree of improbability don’t seem to belong within those parameters.

It’s not just novelists who don’t want to deal with these extreme events. It’s our larger intellectual culture. We really don’t know how to talk about cataclysmic events. Sure, there’s the occasional major storm or earthquake, but those are usually written off as unique occurrences. For the most part, we assume that what happens in nature is gradual. It’s not sudden and huge.
It’s something even stranger than that. This whole question has become very pressing for me, especially in the context of contemporary climate change. I often find myself asking my friends — many of whom are writers and artists — how they respond to events that have a clear climate change fingerprint. It’s such an extraordinary thing that you’ll see any number of books and films that visualize the projected drowning of New York City at some point in the future.

We’re flooded with apocalyptic stories!
We are. And yet if you ask yourself or your friends, has anyone responded to the actual drowning of New York City in 2012 with a novel or story or film or a painting? There’s nothing. Absolutely zero.

Hurricane Sandy did not spawn a lot of novels?
Nothing. I don’t know of a single story in which Hurricane Sandy plays a part. And that’s an extraordinary thing because New York City has an incredible concentration of writers, filmmakers, and artists of all kinds, and many of them were very badly affected by Hurricane Sandy. Hurricane Sandy hit the Chelsea part of New York, which has been a major arts neighborhood for the last 20 years. Many artists live there. Many of them lost work. Many of the major galleries lost stuff. Yet if you ever ask an artist, have you produced any kind of work in relation to this, most of them will look at you in astonishment. It just hasn’t entered their minds.

How do you explain this?
[Laughs.] I struggle to explain it. I’m saying this about New York, but the same is true of Mumbai. Mumbai is a city with a huge film industry. Many writers, artists, and painters live there. I recently met a friend and his wife, who are two of India’s most important artists. There was a terrible rain bomb event in Mumbai some years ago. Their house was flooded. They were separated from their daughter for several days and were traumatized by this event. I asked them if this trauma had ever shown up in their work and again, they just were completely astonished. It’s just not what the modern creative imagination is about.
I’ll tell you why. If you ask any artist or writer what their work is about, or what the sphere of art or literature is, the first thing they would say is that it’s a sphere of absolute freedom. And what does freedom mean in the Western tradition? In some very important respect it’s freedom from nature. Only people who are free of nature were thought to be capable of creating their own history, creating their own art. People who had to respond to nature constantly were thought to be without consciousness, without history, without art.

That’s the traditional definition of culture. Culture is what is not nature.
But just traditional since the late 18th century. That’s when these divisions were put in place. Before that, these distinctions never applied. Within the Enlightenment you have this deification of humanity, the centrality of the human and the exclusion of the nonhuman from everything. And if you think of the way our universities are set up now, what do we have? We have the sciences, which deal with nature, and we have the humanities, which deal with the human. So what about all those things that are not human? Well, you might as well say, “To hell with them.”
I would say climate change really dissolves this completely false distinction between the human and the natural. What we see now is an environment, a nonhuman world, which is completely animated by human actions. It’s the stuff we put into the atmosphere that is actually creating these incredible perturbations all around us, like Hurricane Sandy. They are not something that we could call “natural.” They are something on which we have left our own fingerprints and they’re coming back to visit us in these ways.

We often think of climate change as a science problem. We’ve emitted too many greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and we need a technological fix. You’re saying it’s much more than that?
It’s much, much deeper than that. In my view science can only tell us about the symptoms. These are only symptoms that we see around us. Science is very important because it’s alerting us to these symptoms. And if the scientists weren’t out there telling us about this, we would want to ignore them, because all these things go so profoundly against our intellectual makeup, our history, our education.

If the climate crisis is not essentially a science problem, what is it?
I would say it’s really a problem of culture. It’s a problem of our desires. I can give you so many examples of that, but just to take a small example: if you travel to the Middle East or to water-stressed parts of Australia, you’ll see people trying to grow lawns. They use these fossil fuels to make water. They purify seawater and create, through very energy intensive processes, very expensive water to create lawns.
And really, why? People who lived in these areas 200 or 300 years ago didn’t know about lawns, didn’t care about lawns, didn’t want lawns. So where does this desire for the lawn come into being? You have to think about a whole history and culture of people reading, perhaps, Jane Austen and imagining English greensward all around them. That becomes the model of the good life. What we are all chasing is a model of the good life that comes to us from culture.
Fiction very powerfully shapes our desires and our imagination. But even more powerfully, when fiction is translated into film. If you just think of images of freedom, what does freedom mean to us today? So often the imagery of freedom has to do with an automobile or a motorcycle.

Life on the road, when you’ve chucked the trappings of civilization and you’re off on your own wild ride.
That’s right. You’re speeding down an open road with your hair blowing in the wind. That’s really what freedom has come to mean to us. Yet we never consider that this kind of freedom is dependent on the road, on the machine that some giant corporation produces for you, and on the gas that an even more enormous corporation produces for you. So it’s really not freedom at all.

Do we need a totally different idea of freedom?
Of course. We have to rethink the centrality that freedom has within our conceptions of modern culture and the good life, and we have to start thinking about alternative ways of imagining our lives. For example, California is perhaps the ultimate example of a place where people were always encouraged to think of absolute freedom, to buy and consume as they pleased. Yet when California hit this drought a couple of years ago, they instituted water rationing and people didn’t really complain. They managed to adjust their lives around it. So we really have to think about these things. Freedom doesn’t consist of how much you consume or buy. It’s something more essential. It’s located in your mind, your body, your soul.

So to really come to grips with climate change, we need a whole new way of thinking about fundamental values, whether it’s freedom or this notion that humans are at the center of everything. We need a leap of the imagination.
Yes. We need to imagine our lives in a completely different way. And the technological fixes aren’t going to solve the matter for us. Of course, technology can help. But the reason we can’t just depend on alternative energy is because of what we learned in the mid-19th century. There was an economist named Samuel Jevons, one of the earliest energy economists. He was famous for finding the Jevons Paradox, which demonstrates that greater energy efficiencies actually lead to greater consumption of energy. It’s the same phenomenon as the paperless office paradox. Once the internet came into being, everybody thought people would use less paper. But to the contrary, they actually use a great deal more. So we can’t depend on efficiencies. We have to look at the other end. And that’s consumption. We have to look at it through the prism of our desires and our modes of living.

You said novelists don’t write about cataclysmic storms and natural events because they don’t seem to be the stuff of fiction. Yet there has been a recent surge in what’s been called “cli-fi” climate fiction. What do you think of those novels?
It’s certainly true that there is a lot being written about projections of what might happen. But again, let me just come back to the example that I started with. There are any number of novels and films about the possible drowning of New York. And yet there’s nothing about the actual drowning of New York.
It really troubles me. When our only way of dealing with these issues is by projecting them into a landscape of fantasy, what we’re really doing is denying the reality of our lives because climate change is not in the future. Climate change is now. It’s happening all around us. It’s affecting and impacting our lives very powerfully. When we project these things so much into the future, we actually give people a way of not trying to cope with these issues as they unfold around us. The Day After Tomorrow, that famous Hollywood film that came out over 10 years ago, was actually a very good film. And yet do you think it had any impact at all in alerting people to climate change? It probably had none, because it projected all of these events into a future. So people tend to lump climate change in the same box as extraterrestrials and visitations from vampires.

So what we call “serious fiction” literary fiction has pretty much stayed away from climate change. It’s been left to fantasy and science fiction.
Yes. It’s not entirely the case. Ian McEwan has written about climate change in his book Solar. Barbara Kingsolver has written a wonderful novel in which climate change plays a part. It’s called Flight Behavior. So it’s not entirely absent, but if you look at the mainstream of literary fiction today, it’s carrying on much as it was 20 or 30 years ago and there seems to be absolutely no recognition of the profound rupture that divides the world of today from the world of 1990.

Has climate change figured in your own fiction?
It has in oblique ways. And let me just say here that this book I’ve written, The Great Derangement, is an introspection in a way. It’s really me trying to cope with my own inability to grapple with climate change. So I’m not pointing the finger at anyone nor is it in any way my intention to reprove other writers for what they choose to write about. That’s none of my business. So I’m trying to explore my own limitations.
I have written about climate change obliquely. But when I look around the world now and see the impacts that are actually unfolding around us in such profound and important ways, how is it possible that I have not paid enough attention to this? You know, people of my generation used to ask our parents, what did you do in World War II? And our children are going to say to us, how did you respond to this? I think the world of the arts and culture will not have a very convincing response.

You said that your goal is not to point fingers, but you do point a finger at John Updike, who in a book review once defined the purpose of the novel as an “individual moral adventure.” You take issue with that idea, right?
Very much so. But let me say that Updike’s description is correct in relation to his own practice and the practice of the great majority of writers around the world today. They are writing about individual moral adventures. They are writing about people’s individual lives. But what is so interesting to me is that Updike’s statement really comes at exactly the same time that we have this invention of neoliberal economics, where everything is really about individual choices.

So the economic system filtered into what was expected of a novelist?
That’s absolutely the case. This neoliberalism that started in the late ’80s has had a profound effect on all our thinking in so many ways. It profoundly affected the ways that artists and novelists think about their work. Look at earlier novels. Take an iconic, really great American novel like The Grapes of Wrath. How could you possibly call that an “individual moral adventure”? The Grapes of Wrath is perhaps the single most influential novel written by an American in the 20th century. It’s in every way a novel about a collective predicament. If you take the first chapter, it’s really what I would call a climate novel before its time. That first part is such a powerful piece of writing. You take another great iconic American novel, Moby-Dick, which to me is perhaps the greatest novel of the 19th century, if not of all time. In what way would you describe this as an individual moral adventure? It’s not. It’s about a collective predicament. So the very idea that someone like Updike, who was not only a novelist but also an American critic — the sort of authoritative voice speaking on behalf of American literature — that he could make such a statement is itself a kind of absurdity. It just shows an utter blindness to what in fact an American tradition has produced over the years.

Updike was reviewing the 1984 novel Cities of Salt by Abdul Rahman Munif. He described that novel as insufficiently Westernized, so he believed the novel by definition is supposed to have this Western value of the individual moral adventure. Are you saying there are many other kinds of novels?
Absolutely. It seems to me that if you take the world that we are going into now, it’s very hard to treat it as an individual moral adventure. How is the life of someone running away from some terrible hurricane, how can you treat that as an individual moral adventure? We’re responding to all these crises around us.

Yet if you go back in the history of the novel — and I guess we’re talking about the Western novel — isn’t that what happens in novels? These tend to be stories about how individual lives change over time.
No, I don’t really think that’s the case. Look at some of the great novels of the Western canon. You look at Les Misérables, for example. The list is endless, actually, of novels that are really about collective predicaments. But again let me say that Updike’s summation of the novel was correct for his time, for his practice, for the practice of the great majority of his contemporaries.

If we’re living in a different age now and we need a new mindset, a different imaginative space, what would it mean to write about a universe that is animated by nonhuman voices?
That’s really the problem, isn’t it? Because the nonhuman has no place within novels, a genre that really grew out of this whole process of separating the human from the nonhuman. Again, let me let me return to Moby-Dick. One reason why Moby-Dick really is such an extraordinary novel is because it doesn’t make the separation between the human and the nonhuman. To Melville the whale is very much a creature with intention and perhaps with even greater agency than the human beings that it’s dealing with. Melville never makes a distinction in that sense between the world of the human and the nonhuman. In his book he returns time and time again to telling us what whales do, what whales are. That’s so hard to imagine in the world of today’s literature. Yet that’s exactly what makes Moby-Dick such a transcendent piece of writing. Melville was in a sense a pantheist. For him, every part of the world of man and nature was animated by forces that were divine.

Your critique is not just about the modern novel. It’s really about the humanistic philosophy that most of us have come to believe in the contemporary era. Human beings are at the center of everything, and what we come up with in our own minds is what matters. Do we need an entirely different way of thinking about art?
I certainly believe that. For me, it’s troubling and distressing because after all I’m very much a part of that world. And suddenly you realize that so much of it is completely hollow in relation to the world we face, a complete turning away from what is actually pressing upon our lives so urgently. I mean, how do you really cope with that?

But isn’t climate change hard to turn into a compelling story? It’s very abstract. It’s hard to wrap your head around this concept of very gradual change that will have catastrophic consequences. How do you do that well in a novel?
That is exactly the point. It’s not that human beings have not in the past dealt with these issues. In fact, humans have always dealt with these issues. Think of the part that storms and clouds play in the Odyssey. Think of the cataclysmic weather events that are in the Bible or even in Milton’s writing at a time of great climatic perturbation. There’s a darkness in his writing.
I think the most important thing is that novelists shouldn’t write about climate change. I mean, that’s the whole point. As soon as you conceive of your object as something called “climate change,” your work dissolves. What you have to be writing about is actually your changed reality. This is what novelists have always done. Novelists have written about war, about famine, about all sorts of things. This is the changed reality that we have to try to confront. When we try to think of this thing in terms of a single object, it does in fact become very abstract and dull. But if you look at the actual impacts that are unfolding around us, they’re anything but abstract and dull. They’re incredibly powerful, overwhelmingly powerful. It’s so interesting that Hurricane Katrina resulted in so many important documentaries and nonfiction books. And even Hurricane Sandy has resulted in some good nonfiction work. But where is the fiction? Where’s the culture? Bill McKibben pointed to this decades ago, asking where is the culture that reflects our changing reality.

Is it a matter of writing stories where, say, Hurricane Katrina figures into the plot? Or are you talking about something even more fundamental?
I don’t think I can offer any kind of program. That really is the problem. Every writer has to try and reimagine their work and think about their craft in a different way. There is just not a single program that will lead you there. If you sit around trying to write the big climate change book, you’re almost inevitably going to end up writing a kind of apocalyptic science fiction. That’s not actually the reality of the world that we live in.

In The Great Derangement, you say Asia is central to the story of climate change, but those of us in the West don’t realize that. Why is Asia so important?
For any number of reasons, but it’s actually been very interesting to immerse myself in this whole climate change literature. It’s a discourse almost completely centered on the West. It’s very strange because nobody would deny that the climate crisis has been precipitated by the very rapid growth of China, India, and Indonesia over the last 20 years. That’s actually what precipitated the crisis we’re in. Yet everybody wants to think this crisis grows entirely out of the West, whereas historically it’s perfectly possible to demonstrate that it’s not. In India, people were incredibly eager to take up the carbon economy in the early 19th century. The small country of Burma had an oil economy going back a millennium.

What changes if we bring Asia more centrally into this story?
For one thing, the history of it changes. Secondly, it also makes us very aware of issues of climate justice. Asians were denied the fruits of the fossil fuel economy through acts of power.

Because the occupying colonial powers didn’t allow certain kinds of development.
That’s right. People in India and elsewhere were very eager to take up the fossil fuel economy, but they were literally kept out of it through administrative, financial, and military means. So the inability of the rest of the world to tune into the fossil fuel economy wasn’t because of any lack of interest or capacity on their part. It was because they were actively forced out. So yes, it makes the arguments for climate justice even stronger. It really does change our thinking about these things. At the same time it’s important for people in Asia and Africa to acknowledge that this is a common human problem. This isn’t a problem that you can just ascribe to one part of the world and say all the rest of the world figure merely as victims.

To come back to your native country, India, you lay out a scenario of what could happen in Mumbai, a city of 20 million people, if a Category Four or Five storm swept through it. We really have not come to grips with what might happen.
I started thinking about Mumbai’s vulnerability because of Hurricane Sandy. I spend part of my time in India, not far from Mumbai. And when I saw what Hurricane Sandy did to the New York region, it occurred to me to ask what would happen if a similar storm hit Mumbai. Let’s remember that although Hurricane Sandy was a superstorm, it wasn’t an incredibly powerful storm by the time it actually hit New York. Similarly, it wouldn’t necessarily have to be a Category Four or Five storm that could have a devastating impact on Mumbai. Even a Category Two or Three storm, if it were to make a direct hit on Mumbai, would have a devastating effect.
You see, Mumbai was originally six or seven islands. It was an estuarine landscape just like New York. But unlike New York, Mumbai has been built up into this promontory by filling in huge stretches of land. These are called reclamations, but in a world of sea level rise, it’s the sea that’s going to do the reclaiming. We can see this scenario play out on a daily basis in Mumbai. Already many times of the year at exceptionally high tides, many roads and some neighborhoods are subject to floods. Now, if a major storm were to hit Mumbai — which is not an entirely unlikely scenario because of intensifying cyclonic activity in the Arabian Sea — it would be absolutely catastrophic.

Are you talking about millions of people dying?
One doesn’t want to put a number on it, but yes, I think it would result in very serious casualties. With cyclone warnings as we have nowadays, we have perhaps four or five days to evacuate Mumbai. But Mumbai is actually connected to the mainland only by a couple of arterial roads. So just logistically to evacuate everybody out of Mumbai would be very difficult. The most exposed part of Mumbai has a population of perhaps 10 or 11 million people but to remove all of them would be a Herculean task. And we know from the experience of Katrina and Sandy and other storms that many people don’t actually leave.
They don’t have the means. And where will they go? They decide they’ll take the risk and try and ride it out. Besides, many people are afraid of having their belongings looted, especially middle-class people. So much of their assets consist of their apartment and their car that they don’t want to leave those things. You can be sure that several million would actually stay behind to experience this storm. So I think people would be completely unprepared. One thing that became apparent to me while writing this book is that I went through all the disaster preparation scenarios of the local governments and it’s perfectly clear that they’re not prepared for a major cyclone.

Isn’t there also a nuclear facility in Mumbai?
Two nuclear facilities. The city is literally jammed between two major nuclear facilities, both of which sit directly on the water. Think of what happened with Fukushima. So it’s something one really doesn’t want to think about. But one good thing that’s come out the book is that a major climate scientist, Adam Sobel at Columbia — who’s written a very important book about Hurricane Sandy — got involved with Mumbai. He’s got a team now doing impact studies on what a major storm would mean for Mumbai. And various citizens groups have also started responding.

This is quite a bleak assessment. How would you assess our prospects for surviving the climate crisis?
I don’t think we have a choice. It’s on us. We have to cope as best we can. And even if we make all the necessary changes today — if today we were to stop emitting fossil fuels altogether — we know that some of the impacts are inevitable. A sea level rise, for example, can’t be halted at this point. There are other very scary phenomena. It appears that the traditional carbon sinks — the oceans, forests, and soils — have actually passed their absorption point and are now emitting carbon dioxide. So all of this is very troublesome. You know, I’m not a scientist. I can’t make projections about what’s going to happen in the future but it’s perfectly clear that at an experiential level, human beings just have to be ready.
I was in Phoenix, Arizona, earlier this year, where they have a very good climate change group. Many of them told me that this is a place that should never have been settled. It was only possible to settle Phoenix because of air conditioning. But you recently saw the heat wave in Phoenix. At a certain point even air conditioning is not going to serve you. How do you manage when the outside temperature is over 50 degrees [Celsius] as it was recently in Kuwait? So these impacts are upon us. They are unfolding on a day-to-day basis all around us. And that’s why it’s so strange that we only treat this as something that’s projected into the future.
¤

*Steve Paulson is the executive producer of Wisconsin Public Radio’s nationally syndicated show To the Best of Our Knowledge. He’s the author of Atoms and Eden: Conversations on Religion and Science.

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Pumped Hydro Storage 'Could Make Australia Run On Renewable Energy Alone Within 20 Years'

ABC NewsStephen Smiley | Caroline Winter


Pumped Hydro: Australia's energy future? (Lateline)

Key points:
  • Investment in renewables will see an increased need for hydro storage, researchers say
  • Study found at least 22,000 suitable locations for pumped hydro sites
  • Researchers say Australia could transition to 100pc renewable energy in 20 years if just a few of those sites were built
Australia has the capacity to store up to 1,000 times more renewable energy than it could ever conceivably need, according to an analysis by researchers at the Australian National University (ANU).
ANU engineering professor Andrew Blakers has conducted a study looking into pumped hydro sites and has concluded that there are at least 22,000 suitable locations nationwide.
Professor Blakers said if storage was built at just a tiny fraction of those places, Australia could transition to 100 per cent renewable power within two decades.
"No matter where you are in Australia, you will find a good pumped hydro site not very far away from where you, or your wind or your solar farm is located," he said.
"We only need to build about one or two dozen to support a 100 per cent-renewable electricity grid."
Pumped hydro works by pumping water uphill between two connected reservoirs when power is plentiful, and dispatching power to the grid when demand is high or when wind and solar do not work.
ANU engineering research fellow Matthew Stocks said a typical pumped hydro facility could deliver maximum power for between five hours and one full day.
The power could be quickly dispatched to the grid, when needed.
"It can go from zero to full power in about one minute," Dr Stocks said.
How pumped hydro works. (Supplied: EnergyAustralia)
The technology behind pumped hydro is not new — a facility was opened in the 1970s at the Tumut 3 Power Station at Talbingo in New South Wales.
Pumped hydro is also widespread in Europe, especially in the alpine parts of Italy, Germany and France, and in Scandinavian countries like Norway. It is also widely used in Japan and the United States.
Professor Blakers said as investment in renewable sources of energy like wind and solar increases in Australia, the need for pumped hydro storage would grow.
"We have so little solar and wind in the system at the moment that we don't need the storage," he said.
"Maybe now South Australia, at 50 per cent wind and solar PV, is just getting to the stage where it does need either strong interconnection or a pumped hydro or both.
"But the other states will catch up and will be at the 50 per cent level by the early 2020s I think, so they also need to start planning with pumped hydro now."

'Australia could be fully electrified within two decades'
For the report, Professor Blakers, Dr Stocks and their colleagues looked closely at tens of thousands of sites Australia-wide.
They found the greatest density of pumped hydro storage sites was in New South Wales, where they estimated there was potential to build 29,000 gigawatt hours' worth of storage capacity across 8,600 sites.
In Victoria they estimated there were 4,400 potentially suitable sites capable of storing 11,000 gigawatt hours' capacity, while Tasmania could theoretically support 2,050 sites, adding 6,000 gigawatt hours' of storage.

Professor Blakers said the ANU study located at least 22,000 suitable locations for pumped hydro sites across Australia (Image supplied: ANU) (ABC News)

"The Great Dividing Range is the best place," Professor Blakers said.
"All the way from North Queensland down to near Melbourne has thousands and thousands of sites."
Professor Blakers said if pumped hydro storage facilities were built at just a handful of sites spread out nationwide, Australia could run on renewables alone.
"Pumped hydro, high-voltage DC interconnectors between the states, solar photovoltaics, wind, batteries and demand management can do the whole job," he said.
"Not just the whole job for electricity, but the whole job for energy — electrify land transport, electrify heating and cooling and you could make 75 per cent cuts in Australia's greenhouse gas emissions.
"And I think this is going to happen over the next 15 or 20 years."

Major expansion of hydro storage: Frydenberg
The ANU researchers' work was funded by a $500,000 grant made by the Federal Government's Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA).

Pumped hydro and its potential role in SA

ARENA is itself already funding feasibility studies into pumped hydro storage in Tasmania, and in the Upper Spencer Gulf in South Australia and Kidston in north Queensland.
ARENA's CEO Ivor Frischknecht said while additional research was now needed into the 22,000 sites identified by the study, the message was clear — Australia could have 100 per cent renewable power.
"There's no question that wind and solar investment are going to keep going," he said.
"The challenge is to ensure that we end up with a reliable system that is also affordable, and that's where this study comes in.
"This study shows that it would be relatively affordable to run the entire system on wind, solar and pumped hydro."
In a statement to AM, Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg welcomed the study's findings.
He said the Government was already delivering a "major expansion" of the Snowy Hydro scheme and cited the on-going feasibility studies in Tasmania, South Australia and Queensland.
The Minister also indicated that the Government was working on a "new priority funding round for large scale storage and other flexible capacity projects including pumped hydro".

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23/09/2017

The World's Soaring CO2 Levels Visualized As Skyscrapers

CityLab

This unusual animation gives an architectural twist to the history and possible dark future of climate change.
A new visualization highlights areas where C02 has soared. PIK/FHP
If you want an unusual but punchy telling of the world’s explosion of climate-warping gases, look no further than this visualization of CO2 levels over the past centuries soaring like skyscrapers into space.
A Brief History of CO2 Emissions” portrays the cumulative amount of this common greenhouse gas that humans have produced since the mid-1700s. It also projects to the end of the 21st century to show what might happen if the world disregards the Paris Agreement, an ambitious effort to limit warming that 200 countries signed onto in 2015. (President Donald Trump still wants to renege on it.) At this point, the CO2-plagued atmosphere could see jumps in average temperature as high as 6 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit, the animation’s narrator warns, displaying a model of Earth looking less like planet than porcupine.


A Brief History of CO2 Emissions. FH Potsdam on Vimeo

“We wanted to show where and when CO2 was emitted in the last 250 years—and might be emitted in the coming 80 years if no climate action is taken,” emails Boris Mueller, a creator of the viz along with designer Julian Braun and others at Germany’s University of Applied Sciences Potsdam and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “By visualizing the global distribution and the local amount of cumulated CO2, we were able to create a strong image that demonstrates very clearly the dominant CO2-emitting regions and time spans.”
The visualization begins with a small, white lump growing on London around 1760—the start of the Industrial Revolution. More white dots quickly appear throughout Europe, rising prominently in Paris and Brussels in the mid-1800s, then throughout Asia and the U.S., where in the early 1900s emissions skyrocket in the New York region, Chicago, and Southern California.
(PIK/FHP)
By the time the present day rolls around, the world looks home to the biggest construction project in existence, with spires that’d put the Burj Khalifa to shame ascending in the U.S., China, and Europe—currently the worst emitters in terms of volume of CO2.
(PIK/FHP)
For this project, the team pulled historical data from the U.S. Department of Energy-affiliated Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. The “CO2 emission estimates are deduced from information on the amount and location of fossil-fuel combustion and cement production over time,” says Elmar Kriegler, the viz’s scientific lead. “Therefore, the visualization also tells the history of the Industrial Revolution which started in England, spread across Europe and the United States, and finally across the world.”
Astute observers will notice a couple of troubling things, such as the huge amount of emissions pouring out of urban areas like London, New York, and Tokyo. Cities and the power plants that keep them humming remain the world’s largest source of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Also notable: the relative absence of emissions in some parts of the planet. That isn’t necessarily a good thing. “Some regions, in particular Africa, still do not show a significant cumulative CO2-emissions signal,” says Kriegler, “highlighting that they are still in the beginning of industrialization and may increase their emissions rapidly in the future, if they follow the path of Europe, the U.S., Japan, and recently China and Southeast Asia.”
How likely is it the worst-case scenario portrayed in this viz is nearing our doorstep? The viz’s creators argue that some current damage is here to stay. But they have some cause for optimism, too. “Reducing CO2 emissions to zero in the second half of the century can be achieved with decisive, global-scale emissions-reductions policies and efforts,” Kriegler says. “The Paris Agreement can be an important [catalyst] for this development if embraced fully by the world’s leading emitters and powers. But as we say in the movie, the time to act is now.”

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The Entrepreneurs Turning Carbon Dioxide Into Fuels

The Guardian

The race is on to prove that CO2 can be taken from the air and recycled into profitable, carbon neutral fuels. But cost and investment obstacles remain
Climeworks, the world’s first direct air capture plant, opened in June. It hopes to sell its concentrated CO2 to companies producing fuels. Photograph: Julia Dunlop
In an industrial greenhouse about 30km from Zurich, plump aubergines and juicy cherry tomatoes are ripening to perfection. Growing Mediterranean crops in Switzerland would traditionally be energy intensive but these vegetables are very nearly carbon-neutral. The greenhouse uses waste energy from a nearby refuse plant, and carbon dioxide from the world’s first commercial direct air capture plant.
The facility, designed by Zurich-based start-up Climeworks, pumps the gas into greenhouses to boost the plants’ photosynthesis and increase their yield, it hopes, by up to 20%. Climeworks says it will extract around 900 tonnes of CO2 a year from the air.
The company’s end game is not plumper tomatoes but something far more ambitious – proving that carbon dioxide can be recycled from the atmosphere and turned into something useful. If this installation is a success, Climeworks wants to sell its concentrated carbon dioxide to companies producing carbon-neutral hydrocarbon fuels.
The greenhouse supplied by Climeworks. Photograph: Julia Dunlop/Climeworks
With concentrations of CO2 at their highest in the last 400,000 years, the world needs to remove the greenhouse gas from the atmosphere – as well as cut emissions – if we are to avoid catastrophic climate change.
Of course, nature has been recycling carbon dioxide for millions of years. Photosynthesis turns sunlight, carbon dioxide and water into sugars which fuel plants, which provide us with food, wood and complex sugars for fuel. But most plants turn less than 1% of the solar energy they receive into useful energy-rich compounds.
Scientists and entrepreneurs are working on technologies that they hope will improve on nature and make recycling carbon dioxide a profitable industry.
The World Economic Forum and Scientific American recently named an artificial leaf as one of the top emerging technologies of 2017. Dan Nocera, a chemist at Harvard University, is one of the scientists working on developing this “leaf”, which looks like a small, plain computer chip.
Nocera’s leaf has an energy efficiency of around 10%, according to his paper published last year in Science, a peer-reviewed academic journal. It has two processes. The first is an electrochemical system that uses metal catalysts and electricity from solar panels to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. Then the hydrogen, along with carbon dioxide, is fed to bacteria commonly found in soil and water. The bacteria convert the gases into alcohols like methanol and ethanol that are the precursors to liquid fuels.


Bionic Leaf Turns Sunlight Into Liquid Fuel

These “solar fuels” – so called because they are made from nothing more than sunlight, water and air – could be a carbon neutral drop-in replacement for today’s fossil fuels.
Nocera’s ultimate vision is a cheap, standalone solar-powered system for developing countries to turn water into fuel for vehicles, cooking or power generation. His initial target market is India, where he hopes local scientists and entrepreneurs will help to commercialise the system, although he admits that his technology is years from commercialisation.
In the meantime, several start-ups are trying to beat Nocera to a practical system to recycle CO2 into useful products. Like Nocera’s leaf, all are designed to run on a trickle of electricity from solar panels.
In 2015, Staff Sheehan left Yale University and founded Catalytic Innovations to use metal catalysts like Nocera’s to turn carbon dioxide and water into ethanol, a biofuel that is already added to petrol in many countries to reduce its carbon footprint.
Another start-up, Opus 12, recently spun out of Stanford University in Silicon Valley says it’s “recreating photosynthesis, but at warp speed”. The company says its tech can be used at any source of CO2 emissions to produce syngas. This mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide can be burned like natural gas or used to produce a range of industrial chemicals.
And at the annual American Chemical Society meeting in Washington DC last month, a small company called Dioxide Materials said that it had developed electrolysis technology that could split carbon dioxide into oxygen and carbon monoxide – a precursor for methanol – with twice the efficiency of previous systems.
In order for CO2 recycling systems to operate efficiently, however, the gas has to be captured and concentrated from sources such as factories and power stations – or extracted from the air using a system like Climeworks’. And that isn’t cheap.
Capturing CO2 at a factory chimney could cost up to $80 per ton, according to research from the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. Extracting from thin air is pricier still. Climeworks says it currently costs around $600 to extract a ton of CO2, although it expects that price to halve in its second-generation plant.
“Technologies to capture CO2 from the air, like Climeworks’ units, have the potential for the sort of steep price declines that we’ve seen from solar, wind, and batteries, which are also factory manufactured products,” says Matt Lucas of the Center for Carbon Removal, a non-profit dedicated to curtailing climate change.
“But if we want to compete with gasoline,” says Sheehan, “that cost has to be practically nothing.”
 There are a couple of dozen large-scale projects underway to capture and store carbon dioxide from industrial facilities, including a pilot in India turning CO2 into baking soda. However, the International Energy Agency says they are not on track to meet its objective for more than 100 projects by 2020.
Another challenge is the swift change in the political climate. “Traditionally, solar-fuelled artificial photosynthesis has been a government-funded effort,” says Dick Co, director of the Solar Fuels Institute, a global team of scientists working to recycle CO2 into fuels. “But accelerated by the US election last year, we’re seeing a quick shift from government money to philanthropists like Bill Gates and Tom Steyer.” It’s unknown whether these philanthropists will be committed to funding solar fuels over the years and decades they will need to reach commercial reality.
For young companies like Catalytic Innovations, that means seeking out every source of funding. Sheehan’s start-up has made it to the semi-finals of the NRG Cosia Carbon XPrize, a $20m competition to recycle waste carbon dioxide from power plants into valuable fuel or building materials. He is now looking for money to build a larger prototype in the hope of making it to the final round – which would come with half a million dollars seed money.

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Developing Countries Can Prosper Without Increasing Emissions

The Conversation*

A worker inspects solar panels at a solar farm in China. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

One of the ironies of fighting climate change is that developed countries – which have benefited from decades or centuries of industrialisation – are now asking developing countries to abandon highly polluting technology.
But as developing countries work hard to grow their economies, there are real opportunities to leapfrog the significant investment in fossil fuel technology typically associated with economic development.
This week, researchers, practitioners and policy makers from around the world are gathered in New York city for the International Conference on Sustainable Development as part of Climate Week. We at ClimateWorks will be putting the spotlight on how developing countries can use low- or zero-emissions alternatives to traditional infrastructure and technology.

Developing nations are part of climate change
According to recent analysis, six of the top 10 emitters of greenhouse gases are now developing countries (this includes China). Developing countries as a bloc already account for about 60% of global annual emissions.
Explore world's greenhouse gas emissions by country & sector

If we are are to achieve the global climate targets of the Paris Agreement, these countries need an alternative path to prosperity. We must decouple economic growth from carbon emissions. In doing so, these nations may avoid many of the environmental, social and economic costs that are the hallmarks of dependence on fossil fuels.
This goal is not as far-fetched as it might seem. ClimateWorks has been working as part of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project, a global collaboration of researchers looking for practical ways countries can radically reduce their carbon emissions – while sustaining economic growth.
For example, in conjunction with the Australian National University, we have modelled a deep decarbonisation pathway that shows how Australia could achieve net zero emissions by 2050, while the economy grows by 150%.
Similarly, data compiled by the World Resources Institute shows that 21 countries have reduced annual greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously growing their economies since 2000. This includes several eastern European countries that have experienced rapid economic growth in the past two decades.
PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Low Carbon Index also found that several G20 countries have reduced the carbon intensity of their economies while maintaining real GDP growth, including nations classified as “developing”, such as China, India, South Africa and Mexico.

‘Clean’ economic growth for sustainable development
If humankind is to live sustainably, future economic growth must minimise environmental impact and maximise social development and inclusion. That’s why in 2015, the UN adopted the Sustainable Development Goals: a set of common aims designed to balance human prosperity with protection of our planet by 2030.
These goals include a specific directive to “take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts”. Likewise, language in the Paris Climate Agreement recognises the needs of developing countries in balancing economic growth and climate change.
The Sustainable Development Goals are interconnected, and drawing these links can provide a compelling rationale for strong climate action. For example, a focus on achieving Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) that also considers Goal 13 (Climate Action) will prioritise low or zero-emissions energy technologies. This in turn delivers health benefits and saves lives (Goal 3) through improved air quality, which also boosts economic productivity (Goal 8).
Therefore efforts to limit global temperature rise to below 2℃ must be considered within the context of the Sustainable Development Goals. These global goals are intrinsically linked to solving climate change.
But significant barriers prevent developing countries from adopting low-emissions plans and ambitious climate action. Decarbonisation is often not a priority for less developed countries, compared to key issues such as economic growth and poverty alleviation. Many countries struggle with gaps in technical and financial expertise, a lack of resources and inconsistent energy data. More fundamentally, poor governance and highly complex or fragmented decision-making also halt progress.
It’s in the best interest of the entire world to help developing countries navigate these problems. Creating long-term, lowest-emissions strategies, shaped to each country’s unique circumstances, is crucial to maintaining growth while reducing emissions. Addressing these problems is the key to unlocking the financial flows required to move to a just, equitable and environmentally responsible future.

* is Acting CEO of ClimateWorks, ClimateWorks Australia

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22/09/2017

US Solar Plant Costs Fall Another 30 Per Cent In Just One Year

RenewEconomy -  (PV Magazine)


Only ten days before the U.S. solar industry finds out whether or not it will have to deal with trade remedies imposed by the Trump Administration, the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratories (NREL) put out a new report showing new low costs for solar in the first quarter of 2017.
U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System Cost Benchmark: Q1 2017 shows PV system prices falling roughly 30 per cent in only one year for utility-scale solar, to an average price of $1.03 per watt-DC for fixed-tilt systems and $1.11 per watt for systems with tracking.


This is a dramatic slide in prices even for an industry that has been greatly successful in reducing prices, and appears to come mostly from the collapse in PV module prices over the same period.
This in turn is largely due to a mismatch between supply and demand in China, which has caused significant pain for module makers, and it is not coincidence that there is currently a case before the U.S. government on potential trade protection for U.S. solar cell and module makers.
NREL has estimated that this translates to levelized costs of electricity from $50-66 per megawatt-hour (MWh) for fixed tilt systems and $44-$61/MWh for tracking systems, excluding the effect of the U.S. federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC).
These prices show that utility-scale solar has already beaten the 2020 targets set by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) SunShot Initiative, which has led the new head of the DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to shift the focus of SunShot away from cost reduction and towards integration of high levels of renewable energy (please see our interview with EERE head Daniel Simmons here).
As the bulk of cost reductions were driven by the module price collapse, prices in other sectors have not fallen as quickly. NREL found that prices for commercial and industrial (C&I) systems fell a still-impressive 15% over the last year to an average of $1.85 per watt-DC, while prices for residential systems fell only 6% to $2.80 per watt.
This means LCOE of $92-120/MWh for C&I systems, and $129-167/MWh for residential systems. This is still well below SunShot goals for unsubsidized solar and given the current rate of price declines residential solar may not meet its SunShot target in 2020.
However, when the effect of the ITC is calculated, such costs fall significantly, putting the average cost of residential PV below $100/MWh.


NREL notes that this points to the difficulty in reducing non-hardware “soft” costs, which have increased to two-thirds of the cost of residential systems and 59% of C&I systems.

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