AFR - Lisa Murray
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| Jeff Goodell: "The Adani coal mine is arguably the stupidest energy project in the world right now." Peter Braig |
Jeff Goodell strolls into Kensington Street Social looking tanned and
relaxed in a black T-shirt and matching blazer, with a backpack slung
over his shoulder.
I am less relaxed having just finished his latest book,
The Water Will Come: Rising Seas, Sinking cities, and the Remaking of the Civilised World.
The
tan, I discover, comes straight from the Great Barrier Reef where
Goodell, who has written six books and is a contributing editor to
Rolling Stone magazine, has been diving with his 15-year-old daughter, Grace, ahead of the Sydney Writers Festival this weekend.
We order wine as I ask what he thinks about the government's recently announced half-billion-dollar
rescue package for the reef that will be part of next week's federal budget.
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| "Places like Sydney have a lot of money so they're going to be able to adapt in interesting ways," says Goodell. Peter Braig |
"It's like giving someone a band-aid for cancer. It's not addressing the problem. The problem is burning coal," he says.
"No one is complaining
about taking care of some of these secondary causes and there needs to
be investment in that stuff but to the degree that it's political cover
for the real action, that's a big problem."
Goodell has been
writing about the coal industry and climate change for over a decade and
this is his fourth trip to Australia. On one of the most memorable
trips in 2011, he recalls being holed up in a "shack of a hotel" in
Proserpine just as Cyclone Yasi hit the north Queensland coast.
His latest book, which was included in
The Washington Post's 50 best non-fiction books of 2017,
tackles the issue of rising sea levels. Goodell travelled to 12
countries speaking with scientists, politicians, real estate developers
and those living in flood-prone areas in Miami, Venice, Rotterdam and
Lagos about how they were preparing and adapting for the changes. It is
estimated that as ice sheets feel the heat from global warming, sea
levels could rise up to 2.4 metres by 2100 after an increase of just
15cm in the 20th century.
"Australia is behind the curve in a
pretty profound way," Goodell warns. "I don't think there's much
thinking going on about seriously mitigating the risk of sea level
rise."
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| Jeff Goodell says the government's rescue package is "like giving someone a band-aid for cancer". Alamy |
He points to government support for
Adani's plans to invest in a large coal mine in Queensland's Galilee basin.
"The
Adani coal mine is arguably the stupidest energy project in the world
right now. Mining coal in Australia to ship to India to power
Bangladesh, which is one of the most at-risk nations in the world from
climate change and the government is supporting this. If you're going to
put your finger on why we humans are in trouble, it's stuff like that."
Creative solutions
Goodell
says he was walking along Manly Beach and found himself contemplating
that a sea level rise of one metre could wipe out the Sydney landmark.
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| "I remember sitting at Apple and thinking this is so boring," says Goodell. Peter Braig |
While places like Manly
Beach or Circular Quay would probably be defended, Goodell says cities
around the world will have to operate "a kind of triage".
"What are we going to try and save and what are we going to let go? Where are we going to spend the money?
"Places
like Sydney have a lot of money so they're going to be able to adapt in
interesting ways and find creative solutions," he says in an effort to
lighten the mood.
But the moment is fleeting.
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| "We deal with uncertainty about risk all the time," Goodell says. Wolter Peeters |
"It's not like
everything's OK and then there's sharks in the Sydney Opera House. It's a
slow-motion disaster. The real concern is the accumulating economic
costs over the next decade or two."
Outside, the sun is shining
ominously on a warmer-than-average day for May after Sydney's hottest
April on record. But diners inside the Chippendale restaurant are
oblivious. There is a noisy, social atmosphere to this warehouse-style
bistro with the clatter of the open kitchen, slightly too loud
background music and energetic table conversation bouncing off the
concrete walls.
As
our tartare of kingfish arrives, I ask Goodell, who is staying in the
Old Clare Hotel upstairs, whether he considers himself an environmental
activist.
"Not at all," he says quickly.
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| "We're really going to have to change the way we live with water," says Goodell. Peter Braig |
"I write about it
because I think it's a great story. How we're going to reinvent our
energy system and how we're going to deal with this rapidly changing
climate that we're creating for ourselves is the great story of our
time."
Apple manuals
Goodell grew up in Sunnyvale,
California, but goes out of his way to downplay his green credentials.
He says far from being a tree-hugger, he raced motorcycles as a kid and
was a member of the National Rifle Association.
Living
in the heart of Silicon Valley, one of his first jobs was writing
technical manuals for a little-known computer company called Apple.
"At that time it was a company of 50 people with Steve Jobs running around barefoot and it was a mile from my house.
"I
remember sitting at Apple and thinking this is so boring," he says with
a wry smile. "I thought I've got to go somewhere where there's
something happening."
That ended up being a casino in Lake Tahoe,
where he dealt blackjack at night and skied all day, until he tired of
the decadent lifestyle and headed off to Berkeley and later Columbia to
study fiction writing.
He worked as a journalist in New York writing about cops, AIDS and politics. And after working on a story for the
New York Times Magazine
about the American coal industry's rebirth under George W Bush, Goodell
says he never looked back and has been writing in and around the topic
ever since.
For Goodell, the Great Barrier Reef encapsulates the global problem.
"I
came off Heron Island and had just had a dive in this amazing
underwater world of sharks and manta rays and I visited the research
centre which is looking at how coral reefs are adapting to increasing
heat stress. We spent the day there and then we get in the boat and we
go right by these giant coal transport stations. It was mind-boggling
and heartbreaking simultaneously."
Economic impact
Goodell
says his latest book has sold much better than expected for two
reasons. The first is its release at the end of last year came against
the backdrop of three of the most devastating and expensive hurricanes
in the US – Harvey, Irma and Maria.
The second reason is that
people have started to become more interested in the economic impact of
climate change and sea level rises.
"It's really the economics
that's driving the interest in my book. People are thinking about real
estate values and rising insurance premiums."
"When I look at
Miami Beach right now, or other places that are very vulnerable, I see a
landscape of stranded assets. I think about the subprime mortgage
crisis where you had a lot of risk in these mortgage loans that was not
priced in the market. It's the same thing.
"What's going to happen
is that risk will get priced in and that will be well before the water
comes. The value of real estate on the water is going to go down. My
goal is to make these risks transparent."
I suggest that because
the water is rising gradually, and the size of the increase is up for
debate, people are less clear how and when to respond. But Goodell is
annoyed by this suggestion.
"We deal with uncertainty about risk
all the time. We had 9/11 which was a devastating event and no one knows
how big the risk is of another terrorist attack but we take actions to
reduce those risks even in that uncertainty. It's the same thing here.
It might be two feet by 2100. It might be two feet by 2030. If you look
at the science, the risk is becoming greater. It's all in one direction.
The book is called
The Water Will Come because it's going to happen.
"Doing things like still building real estate right on the water, that's really dumb."
The
main meal is being placed in front of us by a chirpy waitress and my
fried chicken sandwich turns out to be a burger stacked high and
surrounded by a mountain of fries.
"Wow. Good luck with that," is Goodell's advice as he tucks into his moderately sized plate of mushroom and spinach pasta.
Warming and rising
Goodell
is not interested in converting climate deniers. He says his book is
aimed at helping people who do understand the basic fundamentals to
realise the urgency of the risk.
Up to now, Goodell has been very
pragmatic, almost detached, in laying out the challenges associated with
global warming and rising sea levels so I'm surprised when he becomes
quite emotional talking about his recent trip to the reef with his
daughter.
"How do you talk to a
15-year-old girl about the amazing place that she's seen and explain to
her that by the time she's able to bring her kids there, it won't be
there."
Goodell says he was conflicted about dwelling on the
gravity of the situation because he didn't want to turn the trip into
"some kind of a death watch". However, he says being aware of the
potential environmental damage has enriched his own experiences.
"I
pay attention to stuff. I look at the reef and it almost brings me to
tears. Not what we're doing to it, even though that bothers me, but it's
the beauty of it. I get to see that and show my daughter. I'm really
grateful for that.
"We're really going to have to change the way
we live with water," he says. "We're going to have to retreat from the
coastlines and reinvent urban life in coastal cities and I think that
can be really wonderful. But it's also going to be really messy and
there's going to be a lot of economic loss.
"Risk is basically a
function of money and elevation. If a city has both you're in good
shape. If you have one or the other you're OK. If you have neither
you're really in trouble."
Over coffee, Goodell says he has been accused by some climate sceptics of being hysterical to sell books.
"Are
you kidding? If I was trying to sell books I would love to write this
is all a hoax. I would sell gazillions of books. But the deeper you get
into this you realise that not only is it not a hoax, the real truth is
we don't know how bad it is."
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