26/07/2019

'Time To Rebel': Greta Thunberg Adds Voice To New Song By The 1975

The Guardian

On band’s latest single, 16-year-old activist urges young people to act on climate emergency
 ‘The rules have to be changed’ ... Greta Thunberg, left, with Matt Healy of the 1975 
Greta Thunberg’s Speech

We are right now in the beginning of a climate and ecological crisis.
And we need to call it what it is. An emergency.
We must acknowledge that we do not have the situation under control and that we don’t have all the solutions yet. Unless those solutions mean that we simply stop doing certain things.
We admit that we are losing this battle.
We have to acknowledge that the older generations have failed. All political movements in their present form have failed.
But homo sapiens have not yet failed.
Yes, we are failing, but there is still time to turn everything around. We can still fix this. We still have everything in our own hands.
But unless we recognise the overall failures of our current systems, we most probably don’t stand a chance.
We are facing a disaster of unspoken sufferings for enormous amounts of people. And now is not the time for speaking politely or focusing on what we can or cannot say. Now is the time to speak clearly.
Solving the climate crisis is the greatest and most complex challenge that homo sapiens have ever faced. The main solution, however, is so simple that even a small child can understand it. We have to stop our emissions of greenhouse gases.
And either we do that, or we don’t.
You say that nothing in life is black or white.
But that is a lie. A very dangerous lie.
Either we prevent a 1.5 degree of warming, or we don’t.
Either we avoid setting off that irreversible chain reaction beyond human control, or we don’t.
Either we choose to go on as a civilisation or we don’t.
That is as black or white as it gets.
Because there are no grey areas when it comes to survival.
Now we all have a choice.
We can create transformational action that will safeguard the living conditions for future generations.
Or we can continue with our business as usual and fail.
That is up to you and me.
And yes, we need a system change rather than individual change. But you cannot have one without the other.
If you look through history, all the big changes in society have been started by people at the grassroots level. People like you and me.
So, I ask you to please wake up and make the changes required possible. To do your best is no longer good enough. We must all do the seemingly impossible.
Today, we use about 100 million barrels of oil every single day. There are no politics to change that. There are no rules to keep that oil in the ground.
So, we can no longer save the world by playing by the rules. Because the rules have to be changed.
Everything needs to change. And it has to start today.
So, everyone out there, it is now time for civil disobedience. It is time to rebel.
Greta Thunberg has made her musical debut on a single by the 1975.
 On a track called The 1975, a version of which traditionally opens each of the British band’s albums, the 16-year-old environmental activist restates her position on the need to act on the climate emergency.
Over minimal orchestral backing, Thunberg says: “We have to acknowledge that the older generations have failed.
"All political movements in their present form have failed. But homo sapiens have not yet failed. Yes, we are failing, but there is still time to turn everything around.”
She continues: “We are facing a disaster of unspoken sufferings for enormous amounts of people. And now is not the time for speaking politely or focusing on what we can or cannot say. Now is the time to speak clearly.”
Thunberg concludes: “So, everyone out there, it is now time for civil disobedience. It is time to rebel.” (Full text opposite.)
The proceeds from the track will go to Extinction Rebellion at Thunberg’s request. Thunberg is the first outside party to feature on a recording by the band.
The track was recorded in Stockholm in late June and is the first song to be released from the 1975’s forthcoming album, Notes on a Conditional Form.
The band manager and founder of the label Dirty Hit, Jamie Oborne, said the group and the label were making efforts to minimise their environmental impact.
Dirty Hit’s office has phased out all single-use plastic, will no longer produce plastic products including CD jewel cases and is working to minimise the impact of vinyl production.
“Rather than ignoring that it’s a pollutant, we’re minimising it by only doing lightweight vinyl from now on,” Oborne said.
“That isn’t very trendy, but one heavyweight LP is the equivalent of making two or three [standard thickness LPs].”
Dirty Hit’s CDs and vinyl are contained in paper packaging and not wrapped in non-degradable shrink wrap.
Oborne said they had sourced a biodegradable shrink wrap which they would integrate fully once their production plants had full access to it. The 1975’s next merchandise line will also be environmentally friendly, repurposing unsold merchandise into new garments.
Oborne dismissed peers’ suggestions that the organisation could be labelled hypocritical for taking a stance on the climate crisis before becoming 100% carbon efficient.
“That’s why we’re in this situation where everyone’s standing around and it takes a child to point out that we can make these changes,” he said, referring to Thunberg.
“We’re not going to have touring worked out in six weeks because everything’s working against you, but we are going to have it sorted out in a period of time, and 50% is better than nothing. If everyone pushes responsibility onto other people because they can’t completely solve [the issue], we’re already fucked.”
The track release follows Thunberg’s address to French politicians on 23 July, in which she urged them to “unite behind the science” of climate change.
After rightwing legislators said they would not attend her appearance at the National Assembly, she said youth climate activists have become “the bad guys” for stating “uncomfortable things”.
“Just for quoting or acting on these numbers, these scientific facts, we receive unimaginable amounts of hate and threats,” she said.
“We are being mocked and lied about by members of parliament and journalists.”
 On 20 September, Thunberg and other young environmental activists will lead a climate strike around the world.
The 1975’s new album is the second in their Music for Cars series, which began in November 2018 with A Brief Inquiry Into Online Relationships.
The group will headline this year’s Reading and Leeds festivals in August.

Greta Thunberg addresses the French National Assembly in Paris on 23 July 2019.
Photograph: JP Pariente/SIPA/Rex/Shutterstock

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Foreign Minister Marise Payne Defends Australia's Climate Change Policies

ABC NewsMelissa Clarke

Foreign Minister Marise Payne defends Australia's climate change policies. (ABC News)

Key points:
  • Ms Payne defended the Coalition's credentials on reducing greenhouse gas emissions
  • The Pacific region is emerging as a battleground for influence in global politics
  • She said the changing power dynamic in the Asia-Pacific isn't cause for concern
Foreign Minister Marise Payne has rejected demands from Pacific countries for Australia to do more to combat climate change, as she heads to Fiji for a regional meeting of foreign ministers.Pacific nations have identified climate change as the single greatest threat to their security, with leaders such as Tuvalu's Prime Minister Enele Sopoage warning Australia needs a "more progressive response".But Senator Payne has brushed off suggestions Australia isn't doing enough on climate change, stating Pacific leaders "should be pleased" with Australia's commitments under the UN's Paris Agreement.
"I think that they should be pleased that Australia is meeting our Paris commitments, that is something we are absolutely locked in to doing," Senator Payne said.

Climate change and the ADF
Speaking to the ABC ahead of her departure, she defended the Coalition's credentials on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
"We are very serious and meeting our Paris commitments is the best symbol of that, in my view."
The Pacific Islands Forum Foreign Ministers Meeting in Suva comes at a time of renewed focus on the Pacific.
The region is emerging as a battleground for influence in global politics, with Australia trying to maintain its pre-eminence as an economic and strategic partner against China's growing assertiveness.
"Well I think one of the things I think we can say, is that we live here, this is our region," Senator Payne told the ABC.
"These countries are our Pacific family and that is a very important starting point."
China has stepped up its diplomatic efforts in the region, providing more development assistance, economic loans and private sector investment.

An island's race against time
Beijing is presenting a challenge to the United States' long-running dominance as the super-power of the Asia-Pacific region.
But Senator Payne said the changing power dynamic isn't cause for concern.
"Our relationship with Indonesia has changed significantly in the last 10, 20 years, so I don't think relationships such as this are immutable," she said.
"The important thing for governments is to work with the changes, work with those developments.
"I think it's a busy space and I don't think that's a bad thing. The growth in partnerships in the region is a good thing.
"We welcome all-comers, if you like, as long as they're contributing to the things that are important to the region — to security, to stability and to prosperity."
Foreign Minister Marise Payne says Australia is "very serious" about meeting the UN's climate change agreement. (ABC News: Luke Stephenson)


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Climate Change: 12 Years To Save The Planet? Make That 18 Months

BBC

CLINT SPENCER
Do you remember the good old days when we had "12 years to save the planet"?
Now it seems, there's a growing consensus that the next 18 months will be critical in dealing with the global heating crisis, among other environmental challenges.
Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C this century, emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut by 45% by 2030.
But today, observers recognise that the decisive, political steps to enable the cuts in carbon to take place will have to happen before the end of next year.
The idea that 2020 is a firm deadline was eloquently addressed by one of the world's top climate scientists, speaking back in 2017.


The jet stream drags tropical continental air from Africa over to Europe

"The climate math is brutally clear: While the world can't be healed within the next few years, it may be fatally wounded by negligence until 2020," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and now director emeritus of the Potsdam Climate Institute.
The sense that the end of next year is the last chance saloon for climate change is becoming clearer all the time.
"I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival," said Prince Charles, speaking at a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently.

So why are the next 18 months so important?
The Prince was looking ahead to a series of critical UN meetings that are due to take place between now and the end of 2020.
Ever since a global climate agreement was signed in Paris in December 2015, negotiators have been consumed with arguing about the rulebook for the pact.
But under the terms of the deal, countries have also promised to improve their carbon-cutting plans by the end of next year.
Prince Charles has stressed how important the next 12 months are in tackling climate change. Getty Images
One of the understated headlines in last year's IPCC report was that global emissions of carbon dioxide must peak by 2020 to keep the planet below 1.5C.
Current plans are nowhere near strong enough to keep temperatures below the so-called safe limit. Right now, we are heading towards 3C of heating by 2100 not 1.5.
As countries usually scope out their plans over five and 10 year timeframes, if the 45% carbon cut target by 2030 is to be met then the plans really need to be on the table by the end of 2020.

What are the steps?
The first major hurdle will be the special climate summit called by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, which will be held in New York on 23 September.
Mr Guterres has been clear that he only wants countries to come to the UN if they can make significant offers to improve their national carbon cutting plans.
This will be followed by COP25 in Santiago, Chile, where the most important achievement will likely be keeping the process moving forward.
But the really big moment will most likely be in the UK at COP26, which takes place at the end of 2020.
The UK government believes it can use the opportunity of COP26, in a post-Brexit world, to show that Britain can build the political will for progress, in the same way the French used their diplomatic muscle to make the Paris deal happen.
"If we succeed in our bid (to host COP26) then we will ensure we build on the Paris agreement and reflect the scientific evidence accumulating now that we need to go further and faster," said Environment Secretary Michael Gove, in what may have been his last major speech in the job.
"And we need at COP26 to ensure other countries are serious about their obligations and that means leading by example. Together we must take all the steps necessary to restrict global warming to at least 1.5C."

Reasons to be cheerful?
Whether it's the evidence of heatwaves, or the influence of Swedish school striker Greta Thunberg, or the rise of Extinction Rebellion, there has been a marked change in public interest in stories about climate change and a hunger for solutions that people can put in place in their own lives.
People are demanding significant action, and politicians in many countries have woken up to these changes.
The rise of school strikers like Greta Thunberg has reflected growing interest in the climate question. Getty Images
Ideas like the green new deal in the US, which might have seemed unfeasible a few years ago have gained real traction.
Some countries like the UK have gone even further and legislated for net zero emissions by 2050, the long-term goal that will keep temperatures down.
Prince Charles' sense that the next 18 months are critical is shared by some climate negotiators.
"Our group of small island developing states share Prince Charles's sense of the profound urgency for ambitious climate action," said ambassador Janine Felson from Belize who is the chief strategist for the Alliance of Small Island States group in the UN.
"All at once we are witness to a collective convergence of public mobilisation, worsening climatic impacts and dire scientific warnings that compel decisive climate leadership."
"Without question, 2020 is a hard deadline for that leadership to finally manifest itself."

Reasons to be fearful?
With exquisite timing, the likely UK COP in 2020 could also be the moment the US finally pulls out of the Paris agreement.
But if Donald Trump doesn't prevail in the presidential election that position could change, with a democrat victor likely to reverse the decision.
Either step could have huge consequences for the climate fight.
Right now a number of countries seem keen to slow down progress. Last December the US, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Russia blocked the IPCC special report on 1.5C from UN talks.
Just a few weeks ago in Bonn, further objections from Saudi Arabia meant it was again dropped from the UN negotiations, much to annoyance of small island states and developing nations.
The US and Saudi Arabia have joined forces to restrict the use of IPCC science reports in climate talks. ANADOLU AGENCY
There will be significant pressure on the host country to ensure substantial progress. But if there's ongoing political turmoil around Brexit then the government may not have the bandwidth to unpick the multiple global challenges that climate change presents.
"If we cannot use that moment to accelerate ambition we will have no chance of getting to a 1.5 or 2C limit," said Prof Michael Jacobs, from the University of Sheffield, a former climate adviser to Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
"Right now there's nothing like enough understanding of, or commitment to, this among leading countries. That's why the UN Secretary General is holding a summit in September.
"It's great that the COP might be in UK because we have a big civil society ecosystem and much higher climate awareness than in most other countries. But the movement here has barely started to think about how to apply sufficient pressure."
There's also been a strong warning shot from the UK's Committee on Climate Change (CCC).
At the launch of their review of progress made by the UK government on tackling climate change, the country was found not to be on track despite legislating for net zero emissions by 2050.
"The government must show it is serious about its legal obligations…[its] credibility really is at stake here," said CCC chief executive Chris Stark.
"There is a window over the next 12-18 months to do something about this. If we don't see that, I fear the government will be embarrassed at COP26."

And it's not all about climate change
While the decisions taken on climate change in the next year or so will be critical, there are a number of other key gatherings on the environment that will shape the nature on preserving species and protecting our oceans in the coming decades.
Earlier this year a major study on the losses being felt across the natural world as result of broader human impacts caused a huge stir among governments.
The IPBES report showed that up to one million species could be lost in coming decades.


To address this, governments will meet in China next year to try to agree a deal that will protect creatures of all types.
The Convention on Biological Diversity is the UN body tasked with putting together a plan to protect nature up to 2030.
Next year's meeting could be a "Paris agreement" moment for the natural world. If agreement is found it's likely there will be an emphasis on sustainable farming and fishing. It will urge greater protection for species and a limit on deforestation.
Next year, the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea will also meet to negotiate a new global oceans treaty.
This has the potential to make a real difference, according to UK Environment Secretary Michael Gove.
"We have been convinced by the evidence of environmental degradation which occurs without adequate protection," he said in a speech last week.
"And that is why the United Kingdom has taken the lead in ensuring at least 30% of the ocean we are responsible for is protected by 2030 - a trebling of the present target. We will be asking all nations to sign up to that goal."
If all this comes to pass, the world might have a fighting chance of preserving our natural environment.
But the challenges are huge, the political involvement patchy.
So don't hold your breath!

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25/07/2019

BHP Boss Announces $US400m Plan To Combat 'Indisputable' Climate Crisis

The GuardianAustralian Associated Press

The mining giant’s chief executive Andrew Mackenzie endorses drastic action to tackle global warming
BHP chief executive Andrew Mackenzie says carbon pricing is not enough to combat the looming threat of mass extinctions and major sea rises. Photograph: Dean Lewins/AAP 
The chief executive of the world’s largest mining company has endorsed drastic action to combat global warming, which he calls “indisputable”, and an emerging crisis.
“The planet will survive. Many species may not,” the BHP chief executive officer, Andrew Mackenzie, told a business breakfast in London on Tuesday. “This is a confronting conclusion but as a veteran geologist once said, ‘you can’t argue with a rock’.”
Mackenzie endorsed carbon pricing but said it was not enough to combat the looming threat of mass extinctions and major sea rises.
He announced BHP was spending $US400m ($A570m) to create a climate investment program to reduce emissions from its own operations as well as those generated from its resources.
BHP has been working to reduce its emissions since the 1990s but still directly produced 16.5m tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions in the 2017/18 fiscal year, mostly from energy and diesel use at its operations.
That’s the equivalent to the greenhouse gas emissions from 3.5m cars or 4.2 coal-fired power stations for a year, according to a calculator on the US Environmental Protection Agency’s website.
But when one adds to the equation customers’ use of BHP’s products – most notably the processing of iron ore and the burning of coal and crude oil – BHP’s indirect emissions dwarfed that, totalling 596.4m tonnes of carbon dioxide for the fiscal year.
That’s equivalent of the emissions produced in a year by 126m cars or 153 coal-fired power plants, according to the EPA calculator.
“Use of emissions-intensive products from the resource industry have contributed significantly to global warming,” Mackenzie said, while noting that BHP’s emissions in 2017 were less than those in 2006.
BHP has a short-term goal to cap 2022 emissions at 2017 levels, and a long-term goal of achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century.
It is also strengthening the link between emissions performance and executive renumeration from 2021, and has invested $6m in Carbon Engineering Limited, a Canadian company focused on developing ways to capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Mackenzie said that “like most scientists” he believes that global warming will tend to the upper end of forecasts, while conceding there was a chance it would not. But he said prudent risk management meant BHP was planning to protect against the downside.
Global warming required a “coordinated global response” and no single solution could combat it, Mackenzie said . “While we endorse a carbon price this is not enough in isolation.”
Electric vehicles, renewables, reforestation and replacing single-use plastics all have trade-offs, such as simply moving fossil fuel emissions up the chain if energy production is not also decarbonised.
“An ‘all of the above’ solution barely gets us there,” Mackenzie said. “All emitters, resource companies, customers, consumers must play their part together with governments to meet the climate challenge.”

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I’m An Ordinary Person Who Joined An Extinction Rebellion Blockade. Here's Why You Should Too

The Guardian - Anonymous*

It was way out of my comfort zone, but as a scientist I can tell you that the climate emergency is much more terrifying
‘We need to wake people up, fast. This requires massive, sustained media attention. Disruption is very effective at creating this, especially by blockading major urban centres.’  Photograph: Darren England/AAP 
I am an ordinary mid-career professional. I work a nine-to-five job in the city, and I’m well respected and growing in my career. I have never broken the law. And recently, I joined Extinction Rebellion, blockading traffic.
I have never done anything like this before. It was way out of my comfort zone, and I felt like vomiting at the idea. But climate change makes me want to vomit even more. I am a scientist, and I can say with confidence: the science is absolutely terrifying. So I went.
Here’s my reflections on the experience: I found it surprisingly calm, peaceful and friendly. The heavy media and police presence was intense, but I felt safe, and I didn’t feel like I was at risk of being arrested at any point. I just followed clear instructions from organisers and the police. Those who were arrested chose to be arrested, and even that was very calm. I’d genuinely feel safe bringing a child, just like to any other peaceful rally.
Also, it was fun! There was lots of chanting, and it felt positive and upbeat. I’m really glad I had courage and went, despite feeling so nervous. I don’t intend to get arrested, but there are a hundred other ways to support and contribute, and I intend to do them.
Until recently, I thought that these sorts of tactics are ridiculous and just irritate people and lead to more divisiveness. I thought blocking traffic was no way to develop consensus and get things done.
But then I saw the news on Extinction Rebellion blockading London for more than a week, with more than 1,000 arrests. Soon after, the UK government adopted a climate emergency resolution.
I started reading about Extinction Rebellion. I found out that it’s been carefully and deliberately constructed, drawing upon the best research on how to create massive social change, of the kind we need to address the climate emergency.
Let me tell you a story. Many of us already know the climate catastrophe story, so let me tell you a different one
I found out that the suffragettes got women the vote by smashing windows and chaining themselves to railings, facing hate and ridicule in the media. And how Martin Luther King combated racial inequality by rallying people to violate laws and provoke mass arrests, and was arrested 29 times. And this was deliberate, carefully orchestrated and inspired by the nonviolent activism of Mahatma Gandhi.
I learned how the research shows nonviolent civil disobedience can bring rapid and sweeping changes, and that we’ve never seen an example fail once 3.5% of the population becomes actively involved.
I started to hope.
Let me tell you a story. Many of us already know the climate catastrophe story, so let me tell you a different one.
Right now, we are sleepwalking. We go about our daily lives assuming that buying a house and putting money in our superannuation are appropriate ways to plan for the future. If we hear about the climate crisis, we tell ourselves, surely it can’t be that urgent if no one is doing anything?
We need to wake people up, fast. This requires massive, sustained media attention. Disruption is very effective at creating this, especially by blockading major urban centres. The aim is to make people pay attention, and they’re much more likely to do so when it impacts their daily lives. If there are arrests, that’s great too, because that’s also newsworthy.
Most people will hate the disruption tactics, and get irritated or angry. They’ll ridicule the people involved and say negative things in the media. A small percentage will join the movement. It’s OK that this is only a small percentage. Remember that we only need 3.5% of people to get active.
We do, however, need most people to be sympathetic.
People start by discussing tactics (with lots of hate), but then move on to the issue (“but we really should be doing something about climate, it’s actually quite scary”). More people start to realise that this is an actual emergency.
Proper debate starts happening, and people are talking about it everywhere. As more people wake up, more of them join the protests. And there’s safety in numbers, so as it gets bigger, more people feel they can join.
Politicians can no longer ignore the issue. More and more people are getting arrested for nonviolent and relatively harmless activities, and they have growing public support for their sentiments. Grandfathers are glueing themselves to roads because they want a safe future for their grandchildren. Economic activity is suffering from longer blockades, and businesses are demanding that the government does something.
Politicians are forced to address the issue. And now, we finally start working together in collaboration with other countries. People all around the world have been inspired to rebellion.
I have no idea if this story will ever happen but I think there’s a chance. It depends entirely on how many of us get on board. It’s uncomfortable to disrupt people’s lives, but the courageous folks doing it are putting themselves on the line to save us all.
I still benefit from the sacrifices of those suffragettes and all the others who’ve fought so hard, at great personal cost. Now it’s my turn.

*The author of this article is a scientist living in Australia

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'No Limits': Victoria's Biggest Solar Farm Paves Way For More

Sydney Morning HeraldPeter Hannam

Victoria's largest solar farm has reached full-capacity, with its French owner Neoen declaring the plant to be operating "slightly above" expectations as it eyes 3 gigawatts of new renewable developments in Australia.
The $198-million Numurkah solar farm in the state's north took just a year to build and employed about 300 people in the construction phase.
The plant's 128 megawatt-capacity includes 373,839 photovoltaic panels spread over 515 hectares, and it will partly power Melbourne's tram network.
Victoria's biggest solar farm, Neoen's Numurkah plant, brings 128 megawatts of capacity to the grid, and was constructed in just a year. Credit: Neoen
Louis de Sambucy, who took over as managing director of Neoen Australia this month, said technology costs were continuing to fall, making Australia increasingly attractive as an investment location because of its "incredible" wind and solar resources.
"We don't see the limits – things are continuously improving, delivering better and better results," Mr de Sambucy told The Age.
"We are at the very beginning of the energy transition.
"We look at projects where we can be 20 per cent up to 40 per cent lower than the current [wholesale electricity] price."
Energy minister, Lily D'Ambrosio, who was expected to attend Friday's formal opening of the plant, said the project would supply about 255,000 megawatt-hours to the grid each year.
"The Numurkah solar farm will play an important role in supporting the transformation of our energy system towards clean, renewable energy and reaching our renewable energy target of 50 per cent by 2030," she said.
The avoided greenhouse gas emissions from the solar farm amount to the equivalent of taking 75,000 cars off the road or planting 390,000 trees.
Support for the plant included a 38 megawatt green certificate purchase agreement from the government, and $56 million in loans from the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.
Also underpinning the project was a 15-year power purchase agreement with SIMEC ZEN Energy to supply electricity to the Laverton Steelworks in Melbourne's west, which helped to almost quadruple the original size of the plant.
Neoen's Numurkah solar farm will partly power a steel works and Melbourne's tram network. Credit: Neoen
The Victorian government's renewable energy target (VRET) is expected to draw in $7.2 billion to meet its 2025 goal of supplying 40 per cent of the state's electricity from renewables by 2025.
Some 10,000 jobs will also be spurred by those projects, according to government estimates.
Neoen is also developing a $350 million, 200MW wind farm, including 56 turbines, on an old gold mine site at Bulgana, near Stawell in western Victoria.
The company also operates the successful Hornsdale battery in South Australia, which has been helping to stabilise the grid for almost two years.
Despite that project's success, Neoen is wary of building additional capacity for now given "the shallow market" that currently exists for such projects, Mr de Sambucy said.

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24/07/2019

40 Years Ago, Scientists Predicted Climate Change. And Hey, They Were Right

The Conversation

It’s been four decades since the first credible, global report on the effect of carbon dioxide on the global climate.Shutterstock
This month the world has been celebrating the 50th anniversary of Neil Armstrong setting foot on the Moon. But this week sees another scientific anniversary, perhaps just as important for the future of civilisation.
Forty years ago, a group of climate scientists sat down at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts for the first meeting of the “Ad Hoc Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate”. It led to the preparation of what became known as the Charney Report – the first comprehensive assessment of global climate change due to carbon dioxide.
It doesn’t sound as impressive as landing on the Moon, and there certainly weren’t millions waiting with bated breath for the deliberations of the meeting.
But the Charney Report is an exemplar of good science, and the success of its predictions over the past 40 years has firmly established the science of global warming.


Why reducing our carbon emissions matters (a little story about climate change)

What is this ‘greenhouse gas’ you speak of?
Other scientists, starting in the 19th century, had already demonstrated that carbon dioxide was what we now call a “greenhouse gas”. By the 1950s, scientists were predicting warming of several degrees from the burning of fossil fuels. In 1972 John Sawyer, the head of research at the UK Meteorological Office, wrote a four-page paper published in Nature summarising what was known at the time, and predicting warming of about 0.6℃ by the end of the 20th century.
But these predictions were still controversial in the 1970s. The world had, if anything, cooled since the middle of the 20th century, and there was even some speculation in the media that perhaps we were headed for an ice age.
The meeting at Woods Hole gathered together about 10 distinguished climate scientists, who also sought advice from other scientists from across the world. The group was led by Jule Charney from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, one of the most respected atmospheric scientists of the 20th century.
The Report lays out clearly what was known about the likely effects of increasing carbon dioxide on the climate, as well as the uncertainties. The main conclusion of the Report was direct:
We estimate the most probable warming for a doubling of CO₂ to be near 3℃ with a probable error of 1.5℃.
In the 40 years since their meeting, the annual average CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere, as measured at Mauna Loa in Hawaii, has increased by about 21%. Over the same period, global average surface temperature has increased by about 0.66℃, almost exactly what could have been expected if a doubling of CO₂ produces about 2.5℃ warming – just a bit below their best estimate. A remarkably prescient prediction.


Reception of the article
Despite the high regard in which the authors of the Charney Report were held by their scientific peers at the time, the report certainly didn’t lead to immediate changes in behaviour, by the public or politicians.
But over time, as the world has continued to warm as they predicted, the report has become accepted as a major milestone in our understanding of the consequences our actions have for the climate. The current crop of climate scientists revere Charney and his co-authors for their insight and clarity.

Strong science
The report exemplifies how good science works: establish an hypothesis after examining the physics and chemistry, then based on your assessment of the science make strong predictions. Here, “strong predictions” means something that would be unlikely to come true if your hypothesis and science were incorrect.
In this case, their very specific prediction was that warming of between 1.5℃ and 4.5℃ would accompany a doubling of atmospheric CO₂. At the time, global temperatures, in the absence of their hypothesis and science, might have been expected to stay pretty much the same over the ensuing 40 years, cooled a bit, possibly even cooled a lot, or warmed a lot (or a little).
In the absence of global warming science any of these outcomes could have been feasible, so their very specific prediction made for a very stringent test of their science.
The Charney Report’s authors didn’t just uncritically summarise the science. They also acted sceptically, trying to find factors that might invalidate their conclusions. They concluded:
We have tried but have been unable to find any overlooked or underestimated physical effects that could reduce the currently estimated global warmings due to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ to negligible proportions or to reverse them altogether.
The report, and the successful verification of its prediction, provides a firm scientific basis for the discussion of what we should do about global warming.
Over the ensuing 40 years, as the world warmed pretty much as Charney and his colleagues expected, climate change science improved, with better models that included some of the factors missing from their 1979 deliberations.
This subsequent science has, however, only confirmed the conclusions of the Charney Report, although much more detailed predictions of climate change are now possible.

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