‘You Have No Idea’: Minister’s Stunning Answer On Climate Change

NEWS.com.au - Sam Clench

It was a simple question. But the government minister’s answer was so extraordinary, the interviewer had to clarify it twice, just to make sure.

Water Resources Minister David Littleproud. Picture: Kym Smith Source: News Corp Australia

STOP PRESS The Guardian Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, now says he accepts the science on manmade climate change, and “[I] always have”. Littleproud’s comments to the House of Representatives on Thursday were entirely at odds with a written statement he made to Guardian Australia on Tuesday. In response to questions, Littleproud said: “I don’t know if climate change is man-made.” “I’m about practical outcomes, whether that’s about having a cleaner environment or giving farmers and emergency services the right tools to adapt,” the minister said in that statement. “I am responsible for making sure we have the tools we need to adapt to a changing climate.”

Crossbench politicians are calling on the federal parliament to officially declare a “climate emergency” today.
Greens MP Adam Bandt will move a motion to that effect, and it will be seconded by independent Zali Steggall.
Ms Steggall’s fellow independents Helen Haines and Andrew Wilkie also support the motion, along with Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie.
They have at least one ally from the Liberal side of politics as well. Former opposition leader John Hewson is in Canberra today to help them push for the declaration.
Ms Steggall went on Sky News this morning to make her case.
“This isn’t about me expressing an opinion. This is about listening to the experts,” she said.
“It’s only a first step, of course. What we really need is a plan to decarbonise.”
Ms Steggall has previously been accused of hypocrisy because she does not drive an electric vehicle. Her critics say that’s an example of her not practising what she preaches.
Asked about that, she said she could not yet afford to buy one.
“I, like every other Australian, have budget pressures, mortgage pressures,” Ms Steggall said.
“I would really welcome the government taking some steps to make EVs more affordable so I could accelerate the process in which I could transfer my car.
“I am committed to, when it comes time to changing my vehicle, that I will change it to an EV.”
You can expect the government to oppose the climate emergency declaration, meaning it will not pass.
Labor, for what it’s worth, is hedging its bets, saying it will “consider any motions brought forward” through its usual processes.
The timing of this is interesting. It comes after government frontbencher David Littleproud’s stunning admission yesterday that he doesn’t know whether climate change is man made.

Zali Steggall. Picture: Kym Smith Source: News Corp Australia

The Minister for Water Resources, whose job includes responsibility for handling natural disasters — bushfires, for example — first revealed that titbit to The Guardian before doubling down in an interview with Sky News political editor David Speers.
“I don’t know if climate change is man made,” Mr Littleproud told The Guardian.
“I’m about practical outcomes, whether that’s about having a cleaner environment or giving farmers and emergency services the right tools to adapt.”
A short while after those comments were reported, he was interviewed by Speers.
“You say the climate is changing, and that is certainly true. The question is, is this man made climate change?” Speers asked.
“I have no idea, but does it really matter?” Mr Littleproud said.
“Sorry, you have no idea whether?” Speers pressed.
“I am not a scientist. I haven’t made an opinion one way or the other, but I don’t think it really matters,” the minister said.
“Sorry, I just want to be really clear on this. You are not sure whether man made climate change is real?” Speers continued.
“I am going to be honest with you, I don’t have an opinion, but I don’t think it really matters. I think these extremes from both sides have taken away the maturity of debate we should have about keeping, simply, a clean environment and making sure we give our people the tools to be able to go out and protect themselves in a changing climate,” Mr Littleproud said.

David Speers does his best ‘Is that your final answer?’ face. Picture: Sky News Source: Supplied

Australia’s Attitude To Climate Change

• 81 per cent concerned about more droughts and flooding caused by climate change 
• 77 per cent think climate change is already happening 
• Two-thirds think Australia should have a national target of net-zero emissions by 2050.
• Almost two-thirds think humans are responsible for climate change.
• Most Australians think climate change is causing more extreme weather events and hurting food supply.
• Most blame electricity companies and their profit margins for rising power bills.
• Solar power is Australia’s favourite energy source for the fourth year running.
• Young adults are more concerned about climate change and more supportive of reducing emissions than older generations.
• About two-thirds want the federal government to stop building new coal mines.

Links

• Climate of the Nation report 2019
• Labor slams 'climate change denier' David Littleproud over bushfire comments
• Climate change is bringing a new world of bushfires
• John Hewson urges Liberal conscience vote on climate emergency
• Zali Steggall calls for conscience vote on climate change legislation

How Actually Dare People Politicise The Bushfires By Claiming 'Scientifically' It's Linked To The Climate Crisis

The Guardian - First Dog On The Moon

I mean there are good scientists on both sides ...

Cartoon by First Dog on the Moon
LARGE IMAGE

Links

• Brenda The Civil Disobedience Penguin Asks: What Will You Give Up To Save The Planet? 
• Some ‘Sinister Tactics’ Those Brave Protesters In Queensland Could Have Used But Also Didn’t 
• It's a global death sentence to keep eating like this: dinnertime at the Foreclaws
• In Not At All Intimidating News: Adani Wants The Names Of Scientists Investigating It 
• What Did You Do In The Climate Wars Daddy?
• How Do You Hug A Climate Scientist? Follow These Simple Rules And Don't Make It Weird 
• Adani: It All Looks Dodgy As Hell And None Of It Has Been Explained Properly
• As We Struggle To Save The Planet From Climate Collapse, Let's Dance (Dramatic Glockenspiel)
• The Billionaire's Guide To Surviving Global Warming – With Ian The Climate Denialist Potato
• 'Last Year I Gave The Kids Briquettes And Everyone Yelled At Me!' Christmas With Ian 
• The Children Are Rioting In The Streets! They Are Deadly Serious And Perhaps Our Last Hope
• This Is A Call To Arms On Climate Change. And By Arms I Mean Flippers!

Climate Change Is Bringing A New World Of Bushfires

The Conversation - Dale Dominey-Howes

Fires are burning across Queensland and New South Wales. AAP Image/Dan Peled

Spring has barely arrived, and bushfires are burning across Australia’s eastern seaboard. More than 50 fires are currently burning in New South Wales, and some 15,000 hectares have burned in Queensland since late last week.

It’s the first time Australia has seen such strong fires this early in the bushfire season. While fire is a normal part of Australia’s yearly cycle and no two years are alike, what we are seeing now is absolutely not business as usual.
And although these bushfires are not directly attributable to climate change, our rapidly warming climate, driven by human activities, is exacerbating every risk factor for more frequent and intense bushfires.

A mighty welcome sight here at Peregian Beach. A 737 dropping 15,000L of water and fire retardant onto the blaze. #qldfires @abcbrisbane pic.twitter.com/GQsdfP5sUV

— Allyson Horn (@allysonhorn) September 10, 2019

The basics of a bushfire
For some bushfire 101, a bushfire is “an uncontrolled, non-structural fire burning in grass, scrub, bush or forest”. This means the fire is in vegetation, not a building (non-structural), and raging across the landscape – hence, uncontrolled.
For a bushfire to get started, several things need to come together. You need fuel, low humidity (which also often means the fuel itself has a low moisture content and is easier to burn), and oxygen. It also helps to have an unusually high ambient temperature and winds to drive the fire forward.
In Australia, we divide bushfires into two types based on the shape and elevation of the landscape.
First are flat grassland bushfires. These are generally fast-moving, fanned by winds blowing across flattish open landscapes, and burn through an area in 5–10 seconds and may smoulder for a few minutes. They usually have low to medium intensity and can damage to crops, livestock and buildings. These fires are easy to map and fight due to relatively straightforward access.
Second are hilly or mountainous bushfires. These fires are slower-moving but much more intense, with higher temperatures. As they usually occur in forested, mountainous areas, they also have more dead vegetation to burn and are harder to access and fight.
They burn slowly, passing through an area in 2-5 minutes and can smoulder for days. Fires in upper tree canopies move very fast. Mountainous bushfires actually speed up as they burn up a slope (since they heat and dry out the vegetation and atmosphere in front of the fire, causing a runaway process of accelerating fire movement).

About 70 blazes are still burning across Queensland. AAP Image/Dan Peled

Climate change and bushfire risk
To be clear, as previously reported, the current bushfires are not specifically triggered by climate change.
However, as bushfire risk is highest in warm to hot, dry conditions with low humidity, low soil and fuel load moisture (and are usually worse during El Niño situations) – all factors that climate change in Australia affects – climate change is increasing the risk of more frequent and intense bushfires.
Widespread drought conditions, very low humidity, higher than average temperatures in many places, and strong westerly winds driven by a negative Southern Annular Mode (all made worse by human-induced climate change) have collided right now over large areas of the eastern seaboard, triggering extremely unusual bushfire conditions – certainly catching many communities unawares before the start of the official bushfire season.
Different regions of Australia have traditionally experienced peak bushfire weather at different times. This has meant that individual households, communities and the emergency services have had specific periods of the year to prepare. These patterns now seem to be breaking down, and bushfires are happening outside these regular places and times.

Map of bushfire seasons. Bureau of Meteorology

New challenges for the emergency services
While experts recently forecast a worse-than-average coming bushfire season, the current emergency has essentially exploded out of nowhere.
Many Australian communities do know how to prepare but there is always some apathy at the start of bushfire season around getting households and communities bushfire-ready. When it’s still relatively cold and feeling like the last whisps of winter are still affecting us, bushfire preparation seems very far off.
Compounding our worsening bushfire conditions, we are increasingly building in bushfire-prone areas, exposing people and homes to fire. This tips the scales of risk further in favour of catastrophic losses. Sadly too, these risks always disproportionately affect the most vulnerable.
With such extensive fires over wide areas, the current emergency points to an extremely frightening future possibility: that emergency services become more and more stretched, responding to fires, floods, storms, tropic cyclones and a myriad other natural hazards earlier in each hazard season, increasingly overlapping.

Our emergency services do an amazing job but their resources and the energy of their staff and volunteers can only go so far.
Regularly the emergency services of one area or state are deployed to other areas to help respond to emergencies.
But inevitably, we will see large-scale disasters occurring simultaneously in multiple territories, making it impossible to share resources. Our emergency management workforce report they are already stressed and overworked, and losing the capacity to share resources will only exacerbate this.
Immediate challenges will be to continue funding emergency management agencies across the nation, ensuring the workforce has the necessary training and experience to plan and respond to a range of complex emergencies, and making sure local communities are involved in actively planning for emergencies.

Links

• Grim fire season looms but many Australians remain unprepared
• The summer bushfires you didn't hear about, and the invasive species fuelling them
• The air above Antarctica is suddenly getting warmer – here's what it means for Australia
• Natural disasters are affecting some of Australia's most disadvantaged communities

World 'Gravely' Unprepared For Effects Of Climate Crisis – Report

The Guardian - Damian Carrington

Trillions of dollars needed to avoid ‘climate apartheid’ but this is less than cost of inaction

Massive wildfires such as those in Bolivia have been mentioned as evidence that the climate crisis is here. Photograph: David Mercado/Reuters

The world’s readiness for the inevitable effects of the climate crisis is “gravely insufficient”, according to a report from global leaders.
This lack of preparedness will result in poverty, water shortages and levels of migration soaring, with an “irrefutable toll on human life”, the report warns.
Trillion-dollar investment is needed to avert “climate apartheid”, where the rich escape the effects and the poor do not, but this investment is far smaller than the eventual cost of doing nothing.
The study says the greatest obstacle is not money but a lack of “political leadership that shakes people out of their collective slumber”. A “revolution” is needed in how the dangers of global heating are understood and planned for, and solutions are funded.
The report has been produced by the Global Commission on Adaptation (GCA), convened by 18 nations including the UK. It has contributions from the former UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon, the Microsoft founder, Bill Gates, environment ministers from China, India and Canada, the heads of the World Bank and the UN climate and environment divisions, and others.
Among the most urgent actions recommended are early-warning systems of impending disasters, developing crops that can withstand droughts and restoring mangrove swamps to protect coastlines, while other measures include painting roofs of homes white to reduce heatwave temperatures.
In the foreword to the report, Ban, Gates and Kristalina Georgieva, the World Bank chief executive, write: “The climate crisis is here, now: massive wildfires ravage fragile habitats, city taps run dry, droughts scorch the land and massive floods destroy people’s homes and livelihoods. So far the response has been gravely insufficient.”
Ban said: “I am really concerned about the lack of vision of political leaders. They are much more interested in getting elected and re-elected, and climate issues are not in their priorities. We are seeing this in the US with President Trump.”
The report says severe effects are now inevitable and estimates that unless precautions are taken, 100 million more people could be driven into poverty by 2030. It says the number of people short of water each year will jump by 1.4 billion to 5 billion, causing unprecedented competition for water, fuelling conflict and migration. On the coasts, rising sea levels and storms will drive hundreds of millions from their homes, with costs of $1tn (£810bn) a year by 2050.
Patrick Verkooijen, the chief executive of the Global Center on Adaptation, said: “What we truly see is the risk of a climate apartheid, where the wealthy pay to escape and the rest are left to suffer. That is a very profound moral injustice.”
But the moral imperative alone will not drive change, he said, and the report also makes an economic case.
“It is a nation’s self-interest to invest in adaptation,” Verkooijen said. The report estimates spending $1.8tn by 2030 in five key areas could yield $7.1tn in net benefits, by avoiding damages and increasing economic growth.
The chair of the UK’s Environment Agency, Emma Howard Boyd, is a member of the GCA. The agency has warned England could run short of water within 25 years and increased coastal and river flooding may force some towns to be abandoned.

Children paddle a raft through waters in Jakarta, Indonesia, where sea levels are rapidly rising. Photograph: Ed Wray/Getty Images 

In July, the UK government’s official advisers said they were shocked at the lack of proper plans to protect people from the effects of the climate crisis.
Bob Ward, the policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, said: “As one of the governments that commissioned this important GCA report, the UK must heed its conclusions about the large economic benefits from adapting to those impacts of climate change that cannot now be avoided.
“This summer has shown that the UK is not adapted to the changing climate of this century, with heavier rainfall and more frequent and intense heatwaves. Successive environment ministers have failed to give this issue the attention it needs, leading to greater damage to lives and livelihoods.”
Cutting carbon emissions is vital, says the GCA report, but this has received nearly 20 times more funding than adaptation in recent years. Climate effects must be factored into decisions by those who make choices about the future, it says, such as business leaders. Verkooijen said nations should follow France in making it compulsory for large companies to report the climate risks to their businesses.

Coping with the climate storm
The GCA report focuses on several areas of adaptation:

• Early warning systems: Just 24 hours’ warning of a coming storm or heatwave can cut the ensuing damage by 30%, saving lives and protecting assets worth at least 10 times the cost of the alert system. In Bangladesh, such systems, plus shelters and coastal protection, have already saved hundreds of thousands of lives since the Bhola cyclone in 1970 killed at least 300,000 people.
• Climate-ready infrastructure: Such measures can add 3% to the upfront costs but save $4 for every $1 spent. Flood protection is key and Shanghai, and other Chinese “sponge cities” are deploying porous pavements, rooftop gardens and trees in parks to soak up water from downpours. Relatively simple measures can also be effective, such as painting roofs with reflective white paint. In the Indian city of Ahmedabad, this has cut temperatures in the rooms below by 5C.
• Mangrove protection: These coastal forests buffer storms, protecting 18 million people and preventing $80bn a year in flood damage. They also provide nurseries for fish and tourist attractions worth billions. But construction, pollution and global heating have destroyed many mangrove forests, from Australia to Mexico. The GCA says the benefits of mangrove preservation and restoration are up to 10 times the cost.

Links

• The Country's Top Bureaucrats Say Government Appears Unprepared For Climate Change
• Record heatwave 'made much more likely' by human impact on climate
• Climate crisis seriously damaging human health, report finds
• Climate crisis: flooding threat ‘may force UK towns to be abandoned’
• Climate change could make insurance too expensive for most people – report
• Leaders move past Trump to protect world from climate change
• More Saddleworth-style fires likely as climate changes, scientists warn
• Major flooding in UK now likely every year, warns lead climate adviser
• Rising sea-levels could mean conflict in the Indo-Pacific, warns Defence
• 'Is 2 degrees warmer really that bad?': Scientists answer your questions
• Flying fox decline signals dire warning for Tropics in the grip of climate change
• Mass fish kill due to 'exceptional climate conditions', Government's interim report finds
• 'Our climate has already changed': The $1.5b cost of Qld's 'summer of disasters'
• Australia's coal future under threat as more changes hit fossil fuels globally
• Is it time for politicians to listen and promote the planet diet?
• Australia's biggest companies ignore climate change risk: report
• If Pacific nations go under water what happens to maritime boundaries?
• 'It's like Jenga': Evidence of declining insect numbers a 'wake-up call'
• The challenges of understanding impact of climate change in Antarctica

The Country's Top Bureaucrats Say Government Appears Unprepared For Climate Change

ABC Investigations Exclusive - Michael Slezak | FOI Editor Michael McKinnon

The public has increasingly demanded the Government do more to tackle climate change. (ABC News: Taryn Southcombe)

Key points The Secretaries Group on Climate Risk includes some of the country's most senior military figures and the heads of the Federal Government's biggest departments The minutes from the group's meetings noted extreme weather was already "overwhelming" the country's ability to respond to climatic events The group also considered legal risks that climate change could pose for the Government

The most powerful bureaucrats in Australia have been wargaming to prepare the country for "national-scale systemic climate risks" that could impact "the full spectrum of human activity" and are already "overwhelming" the country's ability to respond.
The ABC can reveal a group called "the Secretaries Group on Climate Risk" began meeting in March 2017.
It includes some of the country's most senior military figures as well as the heads of the federal government's biggest departments.
The group has not been formally disbanded, but fell into dormancy. But before that, the group warned the government it was widely seen as trailing the private sector in addressing the impacts of climate change.
The group conducted a set of exercises called "Project Climate Ready", in which the government chiefs wargamed future scenarios that it is expected could occur because of climate change.
Despite the group planning several meetings throughout 2018, it has not met since March of that year.
A meeting planned for July 2018 never occurred, and no meeting has been arranged since, documents obtained by the ABC under Freedom of Information laws show.
A spokesperson for the Department of Environment confirmed there were no plans for another meeting.

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Climate change and the ADF

Australia's Defence Department has spelled out clearly to a Senate inquiry that climate change will create "concurrency pressures" for the Defence Force as a rise in disaster relief operations continues. 

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The spokesperson said the work of the Secretaries Group was now being done by a more junior deputy secretary-led group, called the "Disaster and Climate Resilience Reference Group".
That group existed prior to the Secretaries Group's first meeting, and was described in the FOI documents as "supporting" and "reporting to" the Secretaries Group's work.
Minutes and agendas for the group's meetings show the seriousness with which the federal bureaucracy treated the threat of climate change during a period when then-prime minister Malcolm Turnbull failed to win support in his own party for an emissions-reduction mechanism in the electricity sector.
In establishing the group, the documents note that climate change "influences the full spectrum of human activity".
The minutes from the meetings noted extreme weather was already "overwhelming" the country's ability to respond to climatic events. As examples, they noted:

• The Melbourne asthma storm, in which 10 people died.
• The South Australian blackout, which resulted in the entire state being plunged into darkness.
• The "convergence of floods and bushfires in Tasmania".

Political storm erupts after SA loses power. (Lateline)

Project: Climate Ready
Project Climate Ready was conducted to better understand how to manage the increasing risk of catastrophic events.
It consisted of a series of scenarios jointly developed by the Department of Defence and the Department of Environment and Energy.

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Babies born today will be 22 when warming hits 1.5C. What will life be like?

Meet Casey X. The year is 2040, and she is 22 years old. The town where she lives is in the middle of a heatwave.

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The details of the scenarios have been kept secret, with the government refusing to release them to the ABC under Freedom of Information laws.
But in commissioning them, the group said they "could include modelling a spring at 10 degrees (Celsius) above average" and "relate to concurrent extreme weather events, legal liability, national security or health".
They said the exercise would involve planning for the scenario over a period of "15 to 20 years".
The group noted Project Climate Ready should help the government "identify actions and prompt discussion on what decisions need to be taken to build resilience to climate change, by who, and when."

Government warned on litigation risks
In addition to direct physical risks impacting health and national security, the group also considered legal risks that climate change could pose for the government.
To prepare for the meetings, the heads of the departments were given legal advice by Noel Hutley SC outlining how company directors and trustees of superannuation funds who fail to consider climate risks could be sued, as well as news articles about ongoing climate change-related litigation.

Josh Frydenberg was environment minister when the Secretaries Group on Climate Risk began. (ABC News: Luke Stephenson)

"The intention was to understand what challenges could be presented by such events, in order to inform policy and program design and thinking," a spokesperson for the environment department said.
"Scenarios explored some of the possible impacts of extreme weather events in a number of sectors including health, infrastructure and energy."
In a brief to the then-environment minister Josh Frydenberg in 2017, outlining what the group had found, the secretary of the department of environment said "there is a broad-based perception that the public sector is behind private-sector practice".

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Australian cities are declaring a 'climate emergency'. What does that actually mean?

The City of Sydney has become the latest local government to declare a climate emergency. So does that carry any legal clout?

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"Many private-sector companies, including resource companies … are well advanced in their management of climate risk," the brief said.
"Public sector agencies own and manage large assets, employ staff in locations and provide or support services that are at risk of extreme weather events, which are becoming greater because of climate change."
The ABC contacted the offices of Environment Minister Sussan Ley, as well as former environment minister and now Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.
Minister for Drought and Natural Disasters David Littleproud, who has said he "[doesn't] know if climate change is manmade", was also asked to comment.
A spokesperson for the Department of Environment said the work of the Secretaries Group was being progressed by the deputy secretary group.
"For example, during 2018-19 the Group discussed development of the recently released National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework.
"The Group also supported development of Climate Compass, which is a framework for climate risk management for Commonwealth agencies developed by CSIRO and the Department of the Environment and Energy," the spokesperson said.

Australia 'probably more prone to disasters'

Professor Andy Pitman says climate change needs to be taken seriously because the consequences "are here now". (Supplied: Twitter)

Professor Andy Pitman, head of the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, said wargaming future scenarios was exactly what the public service should be doing.
"Climate change is really, in the context of the government, simply a risk. And risks should always be thoroughly examined," Professor Pitman said.
"The consequences of climate change are here now and are not something to be thought of as just in the future. But obviously with the emissions trajectories as they are it's inevitable that risks will continue."
He said he was not particularly worried whether this group or some other group was carrying on that work.
"What would concern me is if the scenario-planning — the stress-testing — isn't being done in government."
Former deputy commissioner of the NSW Fire Brigade Ken Thompson is more concerned.
"It does worry me because there's a lot of work that needs to be done in this space," Mr Thompson said.
"The problem with Australia is that we're probably more prone to these disasters than many other countries but we're probably one of the least-prepared simply because we don't have this overarching government framework that's needed to help us plan," he said.
Dr Sarah Boulter, a senior researcher at the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, said a high-level group needs to be looking at climate risk at a whole-of government level.
She said both the impacts of climate change — and potential adaptations — have consequences that cut across government departments.
"So if one department says, 'look, the only way that we can protect this part of the coast is to build a seawall' — that will have implications for biodiversity, for fisheries, for transport."

Links

• World 'Gravely' Unprepared For Effects Of Climate Crisis – Report
• Don't leave your climate evacuation plan too late, scientists say
• Rising sea-levels could mean conflict in the Indo-Pacific, warns Defence
• 'Is 2 degrees warmer really that bad?': Scientists answer your questions
• Flying fox decline signals dire warning for Tropics in the grip of climate change
• Mass fish kill due to 'exceptional climate conditions', Government's interim report finds
• 'Our climate has already changed': The $1.5b cost of Qld's 'summer of disasters'
• Australia's coal future under threat as more changes hit fossil fuels globally
• Is it time for politicians to listen and promote the planet diet?
• Australia's biggest companies ignore climate change risk: report
• If Pacific nations go under water what happens to maritime boundaries?
• 'It's like Jenga': Evidence of declining insect numbers a 'wake-up call'
• The challenges of understanding impact of climate change in Antarctica

Climate Change: 'Invest $1.8 Trillion To Adapt'

BBC - Victoria Gill

Investments - like the purchase of a water pump for irrigation - can provide a sustainable farming income for farmers like Sanfo Karim in Burkina Faso. Ollivier Girard/CIFOR 

Investing $1.8 trillion over the next decade - in measures to adapt to climate change - could produce net benefits worth more than $7 trillion.
This is according to a global cost-benefit analysis setting out five adaptation strategies.
The analysis was carried out by the Global Commission on Adaptation - a group of 34 leaders in politics, business and science.
They say the world urgently needs to be made more "climate change resilient".
The commission, led by former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, World Bank chief executive Kristalina Georgieva and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, argues that it is an urgent moral obligation of richer countries to invest in adaptation measures that will benefit the world.

Planting and restoring mangrove forests provides valuable natural protection for vulnerable coastlines. Jelajah Pangandaran

The report says those most affected by climate change "did least to cause the problem - making adaptation a human imperative".


Five things the world needs to invest in to be "climate change resilient"

Its primary aim is to put climate change adaptation on to the political agenda around the world. And to do this, it sets out "concrete solutions" and an economic plan.
There are, it says, five things the world should invest in over the next decade:

1. Warning systems: For the vulnerable island and coastal communities in particular, early warnings about storms, very high tides and other extreme weather can save lives. Better weather monitoring and a simple app for fishing communities in the Cook Islands, for example, allows them to plan according to the sea conditions
2. Infrastructure: Building better roads, buildings and bridges to suit the changing climate. One project in New York City has set out to paint rooftops white - a heat-reflecting strategy to cool buildings and neighbourhoods
3. Improving dry-land agriculture: Something as simple as helping farmers to switch to more drought-resistant varieties of coffee crop could protect livelihoods and prevent hunger
4. Restoring and protecting mangroves: Underwater mangrove forests protect about 18 million people from coastal flooding, but they're being wiped out by development. Restoration projects could protect vulnerable communities from storms and boost fisheries' productivity
5. Water: Protecting water supplies - and making sure that water's not being wasted - will be vital in a changing climate

Each of these investments, the commission says, would contribute to what they call a "triple dividend"- avoiding future losses, generating positive economic gains through innovation, and delivering social and environmental benefits. It is that dividend that the report has valued at $7.1tn (£5.7tn).

Plant experts in Uganda are improving agricultural livelihoods in the country by introducing farmers to crop varieties with better drought and disease resistance. Georgina Smith / CIAT

Flagship Report

Commenting on the report's findings, Mr Ban said climate change "doesn't respect borders".
"It's an international problem that can only be solved with co-operation and collaboration, across borders and worldwide. It is becoming increasingly clear that in many parts of the world, our climate has already changed and we need to adapt with it."
The report calls for "revolutions" in understanding, planning and finance - to "ensure that climate impacts, risks and solutions are factored into decision-making at all levels". Turning its recommendations into action will be the next endeavour; there will be a further announcement about adaptation plans at the UN Climate Summit in September.

Links

• Global Center on Adaptation
• World 'Gravely' Unprepared For Effects Of Climate Crisis – Report 
• Climate change: Five ways to be resilient
• 12 years to save the planet? Make that 18 months
• Big lifestyle changes needed to cut emissions
• Climate change is 'shrinking winter'
• The long history of solar power
  

More Than Climate Change Driving Queensland Fires, Explain Climatologists

ABC News - Ben Deacon | Penny Timms

The negative Southern Annular Mode affecting Australia is set to make conditions difficult for firefighters. (Supplied: Andrew Bedggood)

The record drought has combined with a record warm winter to fuel this year's grim fire outlook, according to climatologists and bushfire experts.
"The forests are in a state where even a small ignition source can cause major problems," warned Richard Thornton from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre.
"And that will only get worse as we move into summer and things dry out even further."
Andrew Watkins from the Bureau of Meteorology says the southern half of Australia has experienced the driest January to August on record.
"When we take into account temperatures as well, which have been highest on record for winter in some of those bushfire areas, we've had high evaporation," he said.
"We have very dry soils and dry fuel as well."

There is a trend in southern Australia where the number of dangerous bushfire days are increasing. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

According the BoM spring outlook, the dry conditions have been driven by cooler than average waters in the Indian ocean, which meteorologists refer to as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD.
Pacific ocean temperatures are not driving Australia's weather right now, with no El Nino or La Nina expected to develop in the coming months.
There is another, less well-known climate driver behind the strong westerly winds fanning the flames.
"We have a period of negative SAM (Southern Annular Mode) affecting us now, as it has on and off for a while," Dr Watkins said.
When the SAM is negative, strong westerly winds like the ones experienced at the weekend reach further north than normal.

What's driving the fire season ahead?
The warm, dry conditions that have led to the early fires are predicted to continue for the rest of the year.

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What to do if bushfire threatens

ABC Emergency has sourced advice from official agencies on how to plan for a bushfire, including preparing a survival kit.

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"Unfortunately, the odds are high of having above normal daytime temperatures right through at least until January," Dr Watkins said.
"And likewise with rainfall, there are increased odds of drier than normal conditions for much of eastern Australia right through until January as well."
On top of this, the recent sudden stratospheric warming over Antarctica is predicted to keep SAM negative for the rest of the year, reinforcing the warm, dry conditions in New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Climate change trends
"Climate change is playing its role here, but it's not the cause of these fires," Dr Thornton said.
"We're seeing a degree on average higher temperatures than the long-term average."
Climate change expert Andrew King from Melbourne University agrees.
"It's quite clear that the type of hot weather associated with bushfires is becoming more frequent and more intense and it's also more likely to occur earlier on in the warm season," he said.

Darker red and yellow colours show an increase in the length and intensity of the fire weather season since 1978. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

But the climatologist said the story is more complicated when it comes to rainfall.
"There's not really a very clear trend," Dr King said.
"Overall, we don't really see a clear trend towards more dry conditions or more wet conditions [in southern Queensland].
"We have really highly variable rainfall in eastern Australia, linked with things like El Nino and La Nina, and also individual weather systems."
But he says further south, drought is linked to climate change trends.

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The science of bushfires

How does a bushfire begin and spread, and what happens to the environment once it's moved through?

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"In the south west of Australia, and in parts of Victoria, there is a decreasing trend in rainfall. Which obviously worsens bushfire conditions, overall, on average."
And when it comes to increased westerly winds like the ones that fanned this week's fires, he said climate science predicts less strong winds.
"The general climate trend is towards more positive SAM conditions, which means that we see those weather systems moving further south away from Australia and associated with that, we wouldn't see the same frequency of westerly winds that we've seen recently in New South Wales and Queensland."

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What do we really think about
taking climate action?

A majority of Australians believe climate change is driving more droughts and floods, and that higher power prices are the result of "excessive profit margins".

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Fire danger on the rise
The Bureau of Meteorology's state of the climate report from last year showed the overall fire danger index had increased over the past 40 years over much of southern Australia.
Dr Thornton expects this trend to continue.
"What climate change will do is it will increase the frequency, or the return rate if you like, of really bad fire weather days," he said.
"So the days like where you had Ash Wednesday or black Saturday, the return period for those sorts of days, will come back and will become shorter.
"So we really need to start thinking about how do we prepare properties better for that?
"How do we make sure that communities stay safe?"



Links

• Australian Flammability Monitoring System
• Queensland's bushfire devastation captured in pictures
• The red-hot question after destructive hinterland fire — can rainforests burn?
• Injured koala and her joey Rupert among hundreds of animals rescued from fires
• Murray-Darling Basin in 'most severe' two-to-three year drought conditions in 120 years of records, BOM says
• Rare weather event over Antarctica driving Australia's hot, dry outlook