12/05/2020

Climate Crisis: Sea Level ‘On Course To Rise By One Metre By 2100’ If Global Emissions Targets Are Missed

The Independent - Kate Ng

Projected ocean surge would 'devastate' coastal areas, researchers warn


NASA Scientific Visualisation Studio

Sea levels could rise by more than one metre by the year 2100 and 5m by 2300 if global emissions targets are not achieved, according to a study.

Scientists at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore modelled projections from over 100 international experts for the global average sea level changes based on two climate scenarios.

In the low emissions scenario, in which global warming is limited to 2C above pre-industrial levels, experts estimate a rise of 0.5m by 2100 and 0.5m to 2m by 2300.

In a high emissions scenario where global warming rises by 4.5C, the estimates surged between 0.6m and 1.3m by 2100 and 1.7m to 5.6m by 2300.

The study, which was published in science journal Nature, notes that melting ice shelves in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are the “largest potential contributors” to global mean sea level rise, as the biggest reservoirs of land-based ice on earth.

“Reference postulates that ice cliffs become unstable at elevations higher than 90 metres above sea level, facilitating the collapse of ice sheets during warm periods” the study states, noting that the Antarctic ice sheet is "particularly vulnerable to this process".

It adds: “The multimeter global mean sea level rise (GMSL) rise projected by some experts… would expose up to hundreds of millions of people to coastal flooding and devastate coastal ecosystems.

“However, the expert projections also clearly illustrate the potential for evading such large GMSL rise through successful reduction of emissions.”

The study was a collaboration between researchers from NTU, the University of Hong Kong, Maynooth University in Ireland, the UK's Durham University, Roward University and Tufts University in the US, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

Professor Benjamin Horton, who led the survey, said: “The complexity of sea level projections, and the sheer amount of relevant scientific publications, make it difficult for policymakers to get an overview of the state of the science.

“To obtain this overview, it is useful to survey leading experts on the expected sea level rise, which provides a broader picture of future scenarios and informs policymakers so they can prepare necessary measures.”

Co-author Dr Andra Garner, an assistant professor of environmental science at Rowan University, said: “We now that the planet will see additional sea level rise in the future. But there are stark differences in the amount of sea level rise experts project for low emissions compared to high emissions.

“This provides a great deal of hope for the future, as well as a strong motivation to act now to avoid the more severe impacts of rising sea levels.”

Dr Niamh Cahill, of Maynooth University, added: “This international study is based on the informed opinions of 106 sea level experts and underlines the critical importance of pursuing a low emissions policy to limit sea level rise.”

Current global emissions targets under the Paris Agreement seek to limit global warming to 1.5C and aim to strengthen participating countries’ abilities to deal with the impact of climate change.

But a number of countries are not on track to meet their obligations, while Donald Trump has withdrawn the US - one of the world's leading carbon emitters - from the agreement entirely.

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Even If Climate Change Wasn't Happening, Phasing Out Coal Is A 'No-Regret' Solution

ScienceAlert -  Carly Cassella

John W Banagan/Stone/Getty Images

The benefits of phasing out coal far outweigh the real-world costs, scientists say, and that's the case even when climate change is left out of the equation entirely.

Of all the fossil fuels in the world, coal is the biggest source of carbon dioxide, and its impacts on air pollution and public health are profound.

Since the beginnings of the Industrial Revolution, large-scale coal burning has cost lives, yet we've been struggling to kick it. Our global reliance on coal runs deep, so deep that even though we know it's bad for us, we continue to burn it at unprecedented levels.

Now, new computer simulations on the regional effects of phasing out coal suggest that continuing on this trajectory is a big mistake, with negative impacts not only on the environment and human health, but also the economy.

"We're well into the 21st century now and still heavily rely on burning coal, making it one of the biggest threats to our climate, our health and the environment," says Sebastian Rauner who researches climate impacts at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

"That's why we decided to comprehensively test the case for a global coal exit: Does it add up, economically speaking? The short answer is: Yes, by far."

The simulation the team has created incorporates information on the full extent of a 'coal exit' scenario, accounting for air pollution as well as the impact on the energy sector as a whole.

Using this thorough modelling, researchers have now examined the direct and indirect effects of three different scenarios: one, where we meet our current emission-cutting pledges by 2030; another, where we limit global temperature rise by the end of the century to 2 °C through carbon pricing; and a third, where we almost completely phase out coal by 2050.

This, of course, would be a substantial transformation of the energy system as we know it, but it may well be worth it.

Monetising the environmental and human health costs for the first time - including how much it would cost to re-wild areas and invest in transforming our energy systems - the authors have come to a stunning 'no-regret' decision.

Cutting off our reliance on coal will be hugely beneficial for most regions in the world, even when you don't take into account the global benefits of slowing down climate change.

In the simulations, the effects on air pollution in the coal exit scenario are at almost similar levels to the 2 °C scenario, improving global public health exponentially, especially in Asia.

In fact, in almost all regions of the world, the direct policy cost of exiting coal was nothing compared to the human health and environmental benefits that will be reaped come 2050.

Only sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Japan faced higher costs than benefits, and the authors think that might be because air pollution isn't as much of a problem in these parts.

Under the scenario where nations put a price on carbon to limit a temperature rise to 2 °C, a somewhat scattered picture emerges. Asia benefits from improved air quality, while Europe, Japan, and the US save on policy costs. The rest of the world, however, falls short of reaping the same direct societal benefits.

But keep in mind, that's only for regional effects. The minute we zoom out and consider climate change on a global level, everyone appears to win.

"We find that, based on all countries' current climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, humanity is so far not on track to keep global warming below 2 degrees," says Rauner.

"Yet, if all countries would introduce coal exit policies, this would reduce the gap to fulfilling the goal by 50 percent worldwide. For coal-heavy economies like China and India, quitting coal would even close the gap by 80-90 percent until 2030."

The authors argue exiting coal is a particularly valuable strategy going forward, because it reduces carbon dioxide emissions at a relatively low cost while also reaping huge local benefits, such as a reduction in air pollution.

Still, even then, coal is just a start, or, as the authors say, a "crucial early entry point." Phasing out our use of it is a way to buy us some time so we can create further climate policies that turn us away from other fossil fuels and towards more renewable forms of energy. Exiting coal is not a solution to the whole problem.

"[A] holistic response to the climate and environmental crisis will eventually have to achieve almost full-scale decarbonization of power supply," the authors conclude, "and thus also entail a deep reduction of not only coal but also oil and gas and address non-electric energy demands in transportation, buildings and industry sectors as well as resource efficiency."

The study was published in Nature Climate Change.

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Can Covid-19 Response Be A Model For Climate Action?

Lowy Institute - Noah Yim | Natasha Kassam

Mass behaviour change, policies guided by science, acting for the greater good: just what the climate crisis needs.

An empty street in San Francisco, 25 April (Liu Guanguan/China News Service via Getty Images)

In 2020, the world will see the largest annual drop in carbon dioxide emissions in history.

The havoc wreaked by the coronavirus and its accompanying lockdowns has seen fleets of planes grounded and factories shudder to a halt.

Levels of mobility in the world’s largest cities have fallen below 10% of usual traffic.

The International Energy Agency predicts that Covid-19 could wipe out international demand for coal, oil, and gas, with only renewable energy showing resilience.

The preliminary data from some of the world’s biggest economies shows that global emissions are in for a sharp, if temporary, decline. Early numbers from Europe suggest that the continent could see a 24% drop in EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) emissions for the whole year. Global emissions will likely only fall by 5% – a reminder that most of the world’s emissions do not come from transportation.

But economies around the world are lifting their lockdowns. China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, saw a 25% decrease in emissions over its four-week lockdown. Factories in China are back online, and as in previous economic disruptions, stimulus packages and increased targets could outweigh the short-term impacts on energy and emissions.
With a few notable exceptions, most politicians and leaders are engaging in informed, rigorous discourse based on scientific advice. This is precisely the kind of discourse the climate crisis has lacked for so long.
Publics recognise the challenge ahead. In China, 87% say that climate change is as serious a crisis as Covid-19 in the long term. While the number in Australia is much lower, the majority – 59% – agree. Given the significant personal and economic sacrifices many publics have made to combat Covid-19, will these concerns finally translate into real progress in addressing climate change, once the current crisis has subsided?

The prospects look good. Covid-19 has put science front and centre. With a few notable exceptions, most politicians and leaders are engaging in informed, rigorous discourse based on scientific advice – whether about sending children to school or the need for onerous social-distancing guidelines. This is precisely the kind of discourse the climate crisis has lacked for so long – an ability to make effective socioeconomic policy arguments on the basis of sound scientific modeling.

And COVID-19 has been met with a resurgence in bipartisanship and political function in many parts of the world, the likes of which haven’t been seen in decades. There are conservative governments instituting utilitarian, Keynesian economic measures that social democrats like Bernie Sanders are praising. Spending bills of historic proportions are passing through legislatures as if they were uncontentious, everyday appropriation bills.

Finally, this pandemic has energised society into acting with consideration for greater public good. Despite the tragic but relatively low numbers of infections and deaths in Australia, the public has galvanised to comply with otherwise illiberal stay-at-home orders, out of recognition for public good.

Science, bipartisanship, and public will: we’re going to need all three to crest the climate crisis. It will need deep, complex engagement with genuinely difficult policy decisions based off rigorous scientific advice, paired with commitments from all political camps to rise above meaningless “gotcha” point-scoring, and acceptance from all members of society to incur relatively small costs today to avoid far greater ones tomorrow.

However, as has been the case in the past few years, this may be too much to ask in a post-coronavirus world. The 1918 flu pandemic has undoubtedly been the most frequently used historical analogy this year.

However, it did not receive this much attention in its immediate aftermath. Gina Kolata, in Flu, writes, “… the flu was expunged from newspapers, magazines, textbooks, and society’s collective memory. … the epidemic simply was so dreadful and so rolled up in people’s minds with the horrors of the war that most people did not want to think about it or write about it once the terrible year of 1918 was over.”

It is entirely possible that after the present pandemic is over, society will want to forget about it as quickly as possible. It is a perfectly understandable reaction. Already, a healthy appetite for escapism exists to distract us from the banality of every day.

So we may forget the overriding public good that we are all so diligently considering in our day-to-day behaviours. There may be antipathy towards wide-scale social mobilisation or aversion to governments calling upon society to incur even more costs for greater public good.

Furthermore, the low price of fossil fuels may see countries revert to less sustainable methods of energy generation to jump-start their economies, relegating the climate crisis to the bench in the name of economic restoration.

Nonetheless, Covid-19 will likely lead to permanent changes, whether in tax policy, the arts industry or the nature of work.

Will the post-Covid world see our rekindled respect for scientific fact, bipartisanship, and a more robust social contract help us confront climate change?

Or will crippling economic burdens and hard borders see more isolationism and environmental destruction for short-term economic benefit?

Some governments are already flagging the need to alter environmental standards to boost economic activity.

But business groups are suggesting that the rebuilding of virus-rattled economies can be done hand-in-hand with the transition to net-zero emissions.

Perhaps climate policy – historically relegated to the “too-hard” basket – stands a chance in the new world.

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11/05/2020

Unsuitable For 'Human Life To Flourish': Up To 3B Will Live In Extreme Heat By 2070, Study Warns

USA TODAY - Doyle Rice

Climate change: How a warmer Earth could mean more snow
Climate change is making winters colder despite rising temperatures and hotter summers. Here’s why.
Just the FAQs, USA TODAY

Key Points
  • By 2070, up to 3 billion people are likely to live in climate conditions 'deemed unsuitable for human life to flourish.'
  • Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could halve the number of people exposed to such hot conditions.
  • The study was prepared by an international research team of archaeologists, ecologists and climate scientists.
If global warming continues unchecked, the heat that's coming later this century in some parts of the world will bring "nearly unlivable" conditions for up to 3 billion people, a study released Monday said.

The authors predict that by 2070,  much of the world's population is likely to live in climate conditions that are "warmer than conditions deemed suitable for human life to flourish."

The study warned that unless greenhouse gas emissions are curtailed, average annual temperatures will rise beyond the climate "niche" in which humans have thrived for 6,000 years.

That "niche" is equivalent to average yearly temperatures of roughly 52 to 59 Fahrenheit. The researchers found that people, despite all forms of innovations and migrations, have mostly lived in these climate conditions for several thousand years.

"We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 years than it has moved (in the past 6,000 years)," the study warned.

These brutally hot climate conditions are currently experienced by just 0.8% of the global land surface, mostly in the hottest parts of the Sahara Desert, but by 2070 the conditions could spread to 19% of the Earth’s land area. LucVi, Getty Images/iStockphoto

The future scenario used in the paper is one in which atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are high. The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas releases “greenhouse” gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane into Earth’s atmosphere and oceans.

The emissions have caused the planet’s temperatures to rise to levels that cannot be explained by natural factors, scientists report.

Temperatures over the next few decades are projected to increase rapidly as a result of human greenhouse gas emissions.

Without climate mitigation or migration, by 2070 a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to average annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today, the study said.

These brutally hot climate conditions are currently experienced by just 0.8% of the global land surface, mostly in the hottest parts of the Sahara Desert, but by 2070 the conditions could spread to 19% of the Earth’s land area.

This includes large portions of northern Africa, the Middle East, northern South America, South Asia, and parts of Australia.

"Large areas of the planet would heat to barely survivable levels and they wouldn’t cool down again," said study co-author Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands.

"Not only would this have devastating direct effects, it leaves societies less able to cope with future crises like new pandemics. The only thing that can stop this happening is a rapid cut in carbon emissions.”

Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could halve the number of people exposed to such hot conditions. “The good news is that these impacts can be greatly reduced if humanity succeeds in curbing global warming,” said study co-author Tim Lenton, a climate specialist from the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom.

“Our computations show that each degree warming (Celsius) above present levels corresponds to roughly 1 billion people falling outside of the climate niche," Lenton said. "It is important that we can now express the benefits of curbing greenhouse gas emissions in something more human than just monetary terms.”

The study, which was prepared by an international research team of archaeologists, ecologists and climate scientists, was published Monday in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

In our current climate, the most extreme heat is restricted to the small black areas in the Sahara Desert region. But by 2070, that area will expand to the shaded areas across portions of Africa, Asia, Australia and South America, according to the study. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences

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Robert De Niro, Madonna Lead Call For Politicians To Avoid Post-Lockdown “Return To Normal”

NME - Charlotte Krol

They urge a "profound overhaul of our goals, values, and economies"

Robert De Niro, Madonna, Cate Blanchett.
CREDIT: George Pimentel/Getty Images; Fabio Diena / Alamy Stock Photo; Isa Foltin/WireImage



More than 200 high-profile actors and creatives have joined scientists in an open letter urging politicians to systematically upend life after the coronavirus to avoid “ecological disaster”.

Robert De Niro, Madonna, Cate Blanchett and others have signed the editorial ‘No To A Return To Normal’ published in Le Monde (May 6) that calls on world leaders and citizens “to undertake a profound overhaul of our goals, values, and economies,” in the wake of COVID-19.

The letter, which was written by Academy Award-winning French actress Juliette Binoche and astrophysicist Aurélien Barrau, states that the pandemic is “inviting us to examine what is essential. And what we see is simple: ‘adjustments’ are not enough. The problem is systemic.”

It warns that “the massive extinction of life on Earth is no longer in doubt, and all indicators point to a direct existential threat. Unlike a pandemic, however severe, a global ecological collapse will have immeasurable consequences.”

They also point to the “pursuit of consumerism” and “an obsession with productivity” which has “led us to deny the value of life itself.”

They add: “We believe it is unthinkable to ‘go back to normal,’” as the COVID-19 outbreak eases.


Robert de Niro


Adam Driver, Willem Dafoe, Rooney Mara, Penelope Cruz, Hirokazu Kore-eda, Alejandro G Inarritu, Paolo Sorrentino, Mikhail Baryshnikov, Pedro Almodovar, Guillaume Canet,  Nathalie Baye and Monica Bellucci are among the others who have lent their signatures to the letter.

Here’s the text in full:

“The Covid-19 pandemic is a tragedy. This crisis is, however, inviting us to examine what is essential. And what we see is simple: “adjustments” are not enough. The problem is systemic.

“The ongoing ecological catastrophe is a meta-crisis: the massive extinction of life on Earth is no longer in doubt, and all indicators point to a direct existential threat.

"Unlike a pandemic, however severe, a global ecological collapse will have immeasurable consequences.

“We therefore solemnly call upon leaders — and all of us as citizens – to leave behind the unsustainable logic that still prevails and to undertake a profound overhaul of our goals, values, and economies.

“The pursuit of consumerism and an obsession with productivity have led us to deny the value of life itself: that of plants, that of animals, and that of a great number of human beings. 

"Pollution, climate change, and the destruction of our remaining natural zones has brought the world to a breaking point.

“For these reasons, along with increasing social inequalities, we believe it is unthinkable to ‘go back to normal’.

“The radical transformation we need – at all levels – demands boldness and courage. It will not happen without a massive and determined commitment. 

"We must act now. It is as much a matter of survival as one of dignity and coherence.”

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Meet The 8-Year-Old Climate Activist Cleaning Up India

Global Citizen - Catherine Caruso

Licypriya Kangujam wants children to have a better, cleaner planet.

The Child Movement

Licypriya Kangujam is the 8-year-old Indian climate activist taking the world by storm.

As the founder of the Child Movement and one of the youngest climate activists to date, Kangujam is known for calling on world leaders and global organizations to take immediate action to combat climate change.

She first began her activism two years ago at the age of 6. She started out by urging the Indian government to change its climate policies to help curb the amount of air pollution in the country.

After attending the Asian Ministerial Conference for Disaster Risk Reduction in July 2018, Kangujam knew she wanted to get more involved in climate change activism.

Since then, she has founded an organization, traveled to 32 countries, attended her first parliament strike, and called on world leaders to take direct action on climate change at the 2019 United Nations Climate Conference (COP25) in Madrid.

The Child Movement

She has also advocated to include climate lessons in school curriculums, which will be implemented in schools in Rajasthan and Gujarat at the start of the next academic year.

Kangujam’s main areas of focus are climate justice and climate education, and she has a list of demands for her government that must be fulfilled to achieve those goals. She also wants fossil fuel and carbon emissions to be regulated.

"This will bring transparency and accountability to our leaders. This will benefit people, especially millions of poor people in the country," Kangujam told Global Citizen.

She wants every student in India to plant a total of 10 trees each upon passing their final exams. With around 350 million students in the country, doing so would result in the planting of 3.5 billion new trees every year.

"All the above ... policies are possible," she said. "This can help to fight climate change and also change the system of the world. This can go a long way."

As a youth activist, Kangujam has had to take some extra steps to make sure that her voice is heard.

Social media, particularly Twitter, has placed an important role in amplifying her voice and ensuring that her message is spread to world leaders and other activists across the globe. The UN has also given her a platform to raise her concerns about the future of the planet.

In doing so, she has been able to meet with political leaders to discuss various climate issues plaguing India, like air pollution and its links to poor health and illness.

"I’m pressuring the government to ensure the health of every child in India. I will continue to put more pressure on our world leaders," Kangujam said. "The future is the children. The world needs to make a better planet for us. Our leaders need to act now before it’s too late."

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10/05/2020

Media Data Shows Covid-19 Has Stolen Climate Change's Thunder

Sydney Morning Herald - Peter Hannam

To get a sense how the impetus for action on climate change has been eclipsed by the COVID-19 pandemic, you only need to look at how the media’s interest on the matter has shifted.

From what looks like an all-time peak in Australia’s interest in a warming world during the bushfire crisis in January - with 4.5 per cent of articles about climate change - interest has since cratered to be less than 1 per cent, according to analysis from Streem, a media monitoring firm.

Stealing their thunder?: A climate change protester in Melbourne during the height of the bushfires. Credit: Chris Hopkins

By April, the number of articles given prominence on the homepage of 12 leading news sites that mentioned climate change in their first 100 words had dropped to 32 from 562 in January, when the bushfire inferno was at its worst.

COVID-19 counted 13,256 slots last month alone."Certainly coronavirus has reached unprecedented levels of media saturation, being mentioned in 80 per cent of stories some days," Conal Hanna, a Streem media analyst, said.

Interestingly, a similar pattern is evident in the United Kingdom, where interest in climate change tracked at levels close to Australia's even though the bushfires had no direct impact other than drawing the media's attention.

Less than one per cent of articles now mention climate change
Percentage of articles published in leading newspapers and websites

Source: Streem



The surge in coronavirus articles in Australia is notable, with four times more articles on the pandemic than all climate change-related news in the past year, Streem data showed.

Previous periods of relatively active interest in climate-related news, such as the address to the United Nations by Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, were similarly dwarfed by articles about COVID-19.

Climate change coverage in April was 0.36% that of coronavirus
There were four times more COVID-19 stories in April
than climate change stories in the past year

Source: Streem




Bushfires devastated much of the forests of eastern Australia and elsewhere during the summer of 2019-20. Credit: Rob Blakers.

Mr Hanna said that while the pandemic was always going to dominate Australia's media landscape, other topics have been gaining reader interest in recent weeks.

"The George Pell verdict, the release of Malcolm Turnbull's memoir and the ongoing discussion about football season resumptions are all topics that have generated considerable prominence in the media despite the pandemic," he said.

How COVID-19 redefined 'blanket coverage'
The percentage of print and online news stories mentioning each topic

Source: Streem



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Lethal Heating is a citizens' initiative