This Is How Climate Change Will Increase Human Conflict

VICE - James Greig

Water wars, state repression, an Arctic 'Gold Rush' and other ways humans will be tearing each other apart as the planet heats up.

Whether or not climate change will exacerbate conflict is no longer a hypothetical question: according to the Red Cross, it’s already happening.

As long ago as 2018, Peter Maurer, the head of the organisation’s International Committee, told the Guardian: “When I think about our engagement in sub-Saharan Africa, in Somalia, in other places of the world, I see that climate change has already had a massive impact on population movement, on fertility of land. It’s very obvious that some of the violence that we are observing… is directly linked to the impact of climate change and changing rainfall patterns.”

A recent article in the Washington Post agreed with this gloomy analysis: “Climate and climate change have had modest effects on past conflicts, but these effects are expected to get much larger in the future.” A 2013 study, published in Science, confirmed the clear link between climate events and human conflicts.

All of this points to an increase in hostility as the world heats up. But why is it the case that global warming should have such a dramatic effect? And just how bad can we expect things to get?

Migration

Climate Change will create 1.5 billion migrants by 2050 and we have no Idea where they'll go. Izzie Ramirez

Global warming will increase migration for a number of reasons: there will be droughts, crop failures, water scarcity and a rise in sea levels to an extent that makes many coastal areas uninhabitable.

Discussing the threat posed to the US coastline, climate change scientist Orrin Pilkey told VICE: “We should be planning and executing the beginning of a retreat from the shoreline in response to sea level rise and increased storm severity.”

This situation is not limited to the US. In many cases, rising sea levels will affect nations in the Global South that are far less-equipped to deal with the impact. A 2016 study showed that, in countries reliant on agriculture, a 1C temperature increase correlates with a 5 percent increase in outward migration. All of this means that in the years ahead, we can expect to see migration on a scale unparalleled in human history.

Unfortunately, migration almost invariably causes tension; although not in the way you might expect (if you're a xenophobe, anyway). The problem is not migrant communities causing trouble or committing crimes but rather the treatment they receive.

For instance, the only type of terrorism that increases with immigration is the domestic, right-wing kind. To find out more about how climate change might affect conflict, I spoke with Nate Bethea, a writer and US army veteran who runs What a Hell of a Way to Die – a leftist podcast about military and veteran issues.

“I was never in Iraq,” Bethea says, “but there were a number of people who I met who were very disillusioned by their experiences there. They felt that what was done to the Iraqi people would be done to Americans sooner rather than later. It was the idea that, 'It won't be long before they have an Abu Ghraib for Americans.' I think what we're seeing in the US now, with the reactionary right basically getting top cover to run concentration camps for immigrants – and even their US citizen children – is, in some ways, a confirmation of that. I can only see that rhetoric, and the militarisation that comes along with it, getting more and more severe.”

And what does this have to do with climate change? “Global warming is going to drive huge numbers of people to flee into more temperate climates. The US and UK are pretty similar in terms of their hostility to immigration, and you're seeing this militarised response even now when immigration rates aren't particularly high.

“If it's this bad already,” he continues, “with the US letting toddlers die of influenza in concentration camps for minors, and the UK aggressively deporting elderly children of 1940s immigrants – who are very clearly British citizens – what is it going to look like when climate change worsens?"

Scarcity

These climate change arguments need to die. Joe Sandler Clarke

Climate change is expected to cause a disastrous scarcity of resources, which we may start to feel the bite of sooner – and closer to home – that we had previously anticipated.

The head of the Environmental Agency recently warned that the UK could run out of water in as little as 25 years. This would, obviously, be a disaster: an armageddon of troops on the street, evacuations, outbreaks of disease and a lot of portaloos.

We could, however, conceivably get a three-day week in which basically everything is shut except the pub – so there is some silver lining for the lazy pissheads among us.

Armed Kenyan fishermen prepare to sail their boat during a fishing expedition on Lake Turkana, northern Kenya. Photo: Siegfried Modola / Alamy Stock Photo

It makes sense that a scarcity of resources will increase tensions internally; people may find themselves forced to fight for food or water simply to survive. But it’s also likely to happen at an international level. Bethea says, “I absolutely think you will see regional conflicts due to water scarcity, but I think a prelude to that will be significant disorder and violence within affected countries.”

But for all the catastrophes that climate change will undoubtedly cause, there will be opportunities too. We could be at the beginning of a new gold rush. Take the Arctic, where the melting ice caps are expected to reveal a wealth of resources; chiefly fossil fuels but also diamonds and platinum. One government source, who wished to remain anonymous, told me, “Everything changes as a result of higher temperatures in the Arctic, from mass fish migration to fights over fossil fuels.

“As fish move in search of colder waters,” he continues, “fights between fishermen over increasingly sparse catches will become commonplace. On the international stage, there will be a scramble for the Arctic from both regional and international actors in pursuit of the fossil fuels to which that melting ice gives easier access. This same melting ice also allows easier transport of these fossils fuels once they are extracted; the first cargo ship in history sailed through Russia’s Arctic north in August last year and many more look to follow in its wake.”

Already, the US, China and Russia are jostling for dominance over the region, with the UK changing its defence policy accordingly. With so many spoils to be won, and so many Arctic territories already being contested, it wouldn't be surprising if the region becomes a major source of conflict.

The Heat

There is plenty of evidence to suggest that hot weather increases violence. Given that heat has been proven to make people more aggressive on an individual level, it's not too much of a stretch to imagine this may affect foreign policy, something that is ultimately decided by individuals. Ideally, we don’t want the people in charge of military decisions to be suffering from heat stroke.

But the impact is more likely to be felt at an intra-state level. Hot weather has served as the backdrop to a number of riots in the UK, from Brixton in 1981 to the disorder in 2011 that began in Tottenham before spreading throughout the country. Admittedly, there were no riots during the heatwave last year. But when England beat Sweden at the World Cup, a group of people did storm and trash a branch of IKEA – which is a pretty odd thing to do.

There are a number of factors at play, but if temperatures increase worldwide (as they’re predicted to) we could well see an attendant increase in civil disturbance and violent crime.

Links

• The Planet Is Probably in Worse Shape Than We Can Even Predict
• It's Clear Who's to Blame for Australia's Fires, and It's Not Arsonists
• Here's Exactly How a Trump 2020 Win Would Spark a Nightmare Climate Scenario
• 'You're Killing Us': Mozambique's Deadly Cyclones Are Only Getting Worse
• Buongiorno. It Was Really Hot in Europe This Winter
• The Arms Trade Is Reacting to the Climate Crisis Just How You'd Expect
• The 2010s Killed Off the Polite Climate Change Conversation
• The Climate Change Solution That Climate Deniers Can Get Behind

Earth Just Had Its Warmest May On Record Amid Startling Siberian Heat Wave

Washington Post - Andrew Freedman

Parts of Siberia had a monthly average temperature of 18 degrees above normal.

Global average surface temperature departures from average during May 2020, compared with 1981-2010. (Copernicus Climate Change Service)

Astonishing warmth in Siberia helped propel global average surface temperatures to a record high during May, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, a science division of the European Union.

In addition, the January through May period was the second-warmest such period on record since at least 1979, scientists found. This is likely to be confirmed in the coming days by other science agencies whose data extends back to the late 19th century, such as NASA.

Globally, May was 1.13 degrees (0.63 degrees Celsius) above average compared with average May temperatures from 1981-2010, beating the previous record set in 2016. The past 12-month period (June 2019 through May 2020) was close to 1.3 degrees (0.7 Celsius) above average, matching the warmest 12-month period that was set during October 2015 through September 2016.

This is significant because 2016 was the warmest calendar year on record, boosted to the No. 1 spot by both human-caused global warming and a strong El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Such events, which feature above-average sea surface temperatures and altered weather patterns across large parts of the globe, are associated with temporary increases in global average temperatures.

Copernicus reports that the 12-month period is about 2.3 degrees (1.3 Celsius) above preindustrial temperatures, which is of importance to policymakers who are working to limit global warming to well below 3.6 degrees (2 Celsius) above the preindustrial average, with an aspirational goal of holding warming to 2.7 degrees (1.5 Celsius) above preindustrial levels. Scientists have shown that steep and urgent emissions cuts would be required to meet both of these goals.

The regions of the globe that were most above average during May include the areas you’d expect to be cold, even at that time of year, namely Siberia, Alaska and Antarctica. In Siberia, average temperatures were up to 18 degrees (10 Celsius) above typical values for the month, which have been associated with melting snow and ice cover, “zombie wildfires” that may have reignited from the last fire season after a winter spent burning in peatlands below ground, as well as thawing permafrost that may have contributed to a recent oil spill.

Other areas, such as Australia, were unusually cool for the month.

Copernicus uses a technique involving the reconstruction of global weather called reanalysis, which in the past few years grew sophisticated and accurate enough to use to track global climate conditions in near-real-time.

Projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as well as NASA show that the odds favor 2020 setting a new global annual temperature record, beating 2016. However, a periodic cooling in the waters in the tropical Pacific, known as La Niña, could drop it back to a top three warmest year.

Carbon dioxide record

Illustrating the challenges facing the world to limit the severity of global warming, carbon dioxide levels at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii hit a record high during May, registering a level of 414.7 parts per million.

That’s the most carbon dioxide that’s been in the atmosphere in about 3 million years, back when early human ancestors were beginning to emerge in Africa and sea levels were at least 50 to 80 feet higher than they are now.

Insight into our future comes from paleoclimate evidence about that period, known as the Pliocene epoch, as well as others. The unsettling findings show that there was little to no ice on Greenland at the time of the Pliocene, and a drastically reduced Antarctic Ice Sheet as well.

These conditions were associated with carbon dioxide levels at the time and indicate where our current climate may be headed, though the source of the carbon emissions back then were natural, and not added by human activities as they are now.

Links

• 12,000 Year Temperature Record
• (AU) Just How Hot Will It Get This Century? Latest Climate Models Suggest It Could Be Worse Than We Thought
• ‘We’re Worried.’ Scientists Predict Nearly Unlivable Heat For Billions Of People In 2070
• (AU) ‘If You’re Not Sweating’ In This Town, ‘There’s Something Wrong’
• (AU) These Are The Places Across Australia People Will Soon Struggle To Live In Without Serious Challenges
• Arctic fuel spill prompts Russia’s Putin to declare emergency and slam slow response
• ‘Zombie fires’ are erupting in Alaska and likely Siberia, signaling severe Arctic fire season may lie ahead
• Earth’s carbon dioxide levels hit record high, despite coronavirus-related emissions drop

(US) Renewables Surpass Coal In US Energy Generation For First Time In 130 Years

The Guardian - Oliver Milman

‘We are seeing the end of coal,’ says analyst as energy source with biggest impact on climate crisis falls for sixth year in a row

The Four Corners Power Plant in Waterflow, New Mexico, one of the country’s largest emitters of carbon dioxide, is one of 13 coal plants to have announced closure plans. Photograph: Susan Montoya Bryan/AP

Solar, wind and other renewable sources have toppled coal in energy generation in the United States for the first time in over 130 years, with the coronavirus pandemic accelerating a decline in coal that has profound implications for the climate crisis.

Not since wood was the main source of American energy in the 19th century has a renewable resource been used more heavily than coal, but 2019 saw a historic reversal, according to US government figures.

Coal consumption fell by 15%, down for the sixth year in a row, while renewables edged up by 1%.

This meant renewables surpassed coal for the first time since at least 1885, a year when Mark Twain published The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn and America’s first skyscraper was erected in Chicago.

Electricity generation from coal fell to its lowest level in 42 years in 2019, with the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting that renewables will eclipse coal as an electricity source this year.

On 21 May, the year hit its 100th day in which renewables have been used more heavily than coal.

“Coal is on the way out, we are seeing the end of coal,” said Dennis Wamsted, analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “We aren’t going to see a big resurgence in coal generation, the trend is pretty clear.”

US renewable energy consumption has surpassed coal for the first time
in over 130 years

British thermal units (trillion)

Guardian graphic
US Energy Information Administration (EIA)

The ongoing collapse of coal would have been nearly unthinkable a decade ago, when the fuel source accounted for nearly half of America’s generated electricity.

That proportion may fall to under 20% this year, with analysts predicting a further halving within the coming decade.

A rapid slump since then has not been reversed despite the efforts of the Trump administration, which has dismantled a key Barack Obama-era climate rule to reduce emissions from coal plants and eased requirements that prevent coal operations discharging mercury into the atmosphere and waste into streams.

Coal releases more planet-warming carbon dioxide than any other energy source, with scientists warning its use must be rapidly phased out to achieve net-zero emissions globally by 2050 and avoid the worst ravages of the climate crisis.

Countries including the UK and Germany are in the process of winding down their coal sectors, although in the US the industry still enjoys strong political support from Trump.

“It’s a big moment for the market to see renewables overtake coal,” said Ben Nelson, lead coal analyst at Moody’s. “The magnitude of intervention to aid coal has not been sufficient to fundamentally change its trajectory, which is sharply downwards.”

Nelson said he expects coal production to plummet by a quarter this year but stressed that declaring the demise of the industry is “a very tough statement to make” due to ongoing exports of coal and its use in steel-making.

There are also rural communities with power purchase agreements with coal plants, meaning these contracts would have to end before coal use was halted.

The coal sector has been beset by a barrage of problems, predominantly from cheap, abundant gas that has displaced it as a go-to energy source.

The Covid-19 outbreak has exacerbated this trend.

With plunging electricity demand following the shutting of factories, offices and retailers, utilities have plenty of spare energy to choose from and coal is routinely the last to be picked because it is more expensive to run than gas, solar, wind or nuclear.

Many US coal plants are ageing and costly to operate, forcing hundreds of closures over the past decade.

Just this year, power companies have announced plans to shutter 13 coal plants, including the large Edgewater facility outside Sheboygan, Wisconsin, the Coal Creek Station plant in North Dakota and the Four Corners generating station in New Mexico – one of America’s largest emitters of carbon dioxide.

The last coal facility left in New York state closed earlier this year.

The additional pressure of the pandemic “will likely shutter the US coal industry for good”, said Yuan-Sheng Yu, senior analyst at Lux Research. “It is becoming clear that Covid-19 will lead to a shake-up of the energy landscape and catalyze the energy transition, with investors eyeing new energy sector plays as we emerge from the pandemic.”

Climate campaigners have cheered the decline of coal but in the US the fuel is largely being replaced by gas, which burns more cleanly than coal but still emits a sizable amount of carbon dioxide and methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, in its production.

Renewables accounted for 11% of total US energy consumption last year – a share that will have to radically expand if dangerous climate change is to be avoided. Petroleum made up 37% of the total, followed by gas at 32%.

Renewables marginally edged out coal, while nuclear stood at 8%.

“Getting past coal is a big first hurdle but the next round will be the gas industry,” said Wamsted. “There are emissions from gas plants and they are significant. It’s certainly not over.”

Links

• US generates more electricity from renewables than coal for first time ever
• Energy analysts forecast 'the end of coal' in Asia as Japanese investors back renewables
• Natural gas killed coal – now renewables and batteries are taking over
• British power generation achieves first ever coal-free day
• Global investment in energy falls but renewables remain strong
• Surge in renewable energy stalls world greenhouse gas emissions
• Coal 'isn't going anywhere' despite renewables boom, says industry head
• China coal production falls for first time this century

NASA Climate Change Warning: Rising Sea Levels Accelerating

The Express - Sean Martin

NASA has warned of climate change and rising sea levels, stating the ice caps are melting at an accelerating rate.

The poles are melting. (Image: EXPRESS)

Globally, as it stands, sea levels are rising at about 8mm a year due to melting ice and climate change, and while that does not seem like much, the implications for future generations could be huge. Between 1993 and 2014, sea levels rose by 66mm (2.3 inches) – or roughly 3mm per year.

If it continues at the current rate, or gets faster, it could mean coastal cities such as New York could be submerged by the end of the century.

Global warming is contributing to a loss of ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic circles and researchers believe Greenland could be one of the worst affected.

The ice covering Greenland is up to three kilometres thick in certain places, covering an area seven times the amount of the UK.

If all of this ice were to melt, it would cause sea levels to rise by a staggering seven metres, which could have major implications for the UK.

NASA has now revealed that the ice is melting at an accelerating rate in what could be a devastating snowball effect.

NASA climate change warning: Rising sea levels ACCELERATING (Image: NASA)

Earth is heating up. (Image: EXPRESS)

NASA said: "A small glacier in the Arctic region of Norwegian archipelago Svalbard, as photographed by NASA's Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX). This is one of the seven regions where ice loss is accelerating, causing the depletion of freshwater resources.

"Seven of the regions that dominate global ice mass losses are melting at an accelerated rate, a new study shows, and the quickened melt rate is depleting freshwater resources that millions of people depend on.

"The impact of melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica on the world's oceans is well documented.

"But the largest contributors to sea level rise in the 20th century were melting ice caps and glaciers located in seven other regions: Alaska, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, the Southern Andes, High Mountain Asia, the Russian Arctic, Iceland and the Norwegian archipelago Svalbard. The five Arctic regions accounted for the greatest share of ice loss."

The planet is continuing to warm, with scientists stating the global temperature has risen by roughly 0.15-0.20C per decade.



This has led to the visible loss of ice in the polar caps but frozen water is also melting beneath the surface, scientists have warned.

Permafrost is a permanently frozen layer beneath the surface, which affects 18 million square kilometres in the upper reaches of the northern hemisphere.

The layer of ice contains rocks, soil, sand and stores the remains of plants and microbes which have been stored in the permafrost for millions of years.

However, with this means the carbon dioxide (CO2) from dead plants and microbes has also become trapped in Earth’s natural freezer – and with permafrost beginning to melt at an alarming rate, this CO2 will eventually be released into the atmosphere.

Current estimates suggest there is up to 1.5 trillion metric tons of carbon stored in permafrost.

Links

• (AU) Land Projected To Be Below Annual Flood Level In 2050
• Doomsday: By 2300, Global Sea Levels Could Rise by An Astounding 16 Feet
• (AU) Erosion From Surging Seas Threatens Roads, Homes And Beaches
• Climate Crisis: Sea Level ‘On Course To Rise By One Metre By 2100’ If Global Emissions Targets Are Missed
• Satellites Show Melting Ice Sheets In Antarctica And Greenland Have Contributed To 14 mm Sea Level Rise In 16 Years
• ’A Life Too Often Lived Underwater’: How Tidal Flooding Is Wreaking Havoc In Bangladesh
• (US) Climate Change Turns The Tide On Waterfront Living
• Sea level rises MAP: What UK spots will be wiped out by rising seas?
• Ancient Antarctic ice melt caused EXTREME sea level rise
• UK rising sea levels: Flooding 'biggest threat to UK'

(AU) Shared Community Battery May Be Trialled In Solar-Powered Canberra Suburb To Stabilise Energy Supply

ABC News - Markus Mannheim 
 

Solar power will be mandatory in the new Canberra suburb of Jacka, on the city's northern fringe. (ABC News: Briana Shepherd)

Key Points The ACT Government is considering a community battery for the suburb of Jacka, to be shared among households Research suggests shared, mid-sized batteries are a cheaper, more effective way for homes to store solar energy The network operator is looking for ways to stop households flooding the grid with excess solar power

Australia is home to the planet's biggest battery. 

It is also the world's leading market for household batteries.

But Canberra researchers suggest medium-sized batteries — shared between several hundred homes — could be just as crucial for the energy grid's future.

The ACT Government is considering giving residents of a new suburb shared access to such a battery, which would be about as big as a shipping container.

The proposal would benefit up to 500 homes in Jacka, a community that will have solar cells on every roof.

If it goes ahead, it will store households' unused energy, earning them more money and preventing their excess electricity from destabilising the power grid — a problem of growing concern to the grid's operator.

It will also allow more people to benefit from battery technology, which to date has been used almost exclusively by wealthy households.

A concept image of a residential community battery. (Supplied: ARENA/Synergy)

'Cheaper and more efficient'

Community-scale batteries are not yet used in Australia's biggest energy network, which includes South Australia and all eastern states.

However, modelling by Australian National University (ANU) researchers shows the mid-sized batteries can be cheaper and more effective than household batteries.

A research leader of the ANU's battery and grid integration program, Marnie Shaw, says Australia has the world's highest rate of rooftop-solar generation, and needs ways to store that electricity.

"Batteries save households money because they allow you to use solar energy that you produce during the day later in the evening when you need it, and that energy will be cheaper than buying energy from the grid," she said.

"So having any kind of battery storage will be cheaper for households.

"But community batteries can provide that household storage for potentially more houses more efficiently, and potentially be less costly."

Dr Marnie Shaw's modelling suggests community batteries can save households more money and better protect the power grid. (ABC News)

 An ANU simulation of a battery linked to 200 homes suggested each household would save about $15 a month in power costs in today's energy market.

But one of the main beneficiaries would be the power network itself, as the battery would substantially reduce the amount of solar energy flooding the grid during daylight hours.

Batteries can stabilise the grid

Last month, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) said it needed the power to stop households exporting their excess electricity at critical periods, to avoid damaging the grid.

Its chief executive, Audrey Zibelman, said AEMO would do this only during emergencies.

"This is very temporary, very limited and, really … a last-resort control we need if we were worried the system would otherwise go black," she told 7.30.

However, the growing use of batteries is already beginning to solve this problem.

Dr Shaw's early modelling suggests household batteries can lessen potentially damaging energy flows during peak periods by about 25 per cent, while a community battery can be up to twice as effective.

But she says all types of power reserves — home, community and large-scale — are important for the network.

"We need storage at different levels across the electricity grid for the best outcomes."

One of the Hornsdale Power Reserve's biggest successes has been in protecting the grid from voltage surges. (ABC News)

Government keen, but deal not yet done

The ACT passed a milestone last year when its entire electricity use was matched by purchases from renewable sources.

This means Canberra is now effectively 100 per cent powered by green energy, though still reliant on Australia's main grid.

Deputy Chief Minister Yvette Berry said suburban planning was an important part of fighting climate change.

However, the Jacka battery remained a proposal at this stage, which the Government was examining with the ANU and power utility Evoenergy.

"There's a lot of work to do in that space, because innovation is happening every day in battery storage and solar energy," she said.

"So we want to make sure we get it right.

"But we've got a really great opportunity here in the ACT through the development of a new suburb in Jacka, to try some new and different things."

The Government is also trialling other ways to improve green energy use and efficiency in new suburbs.

In Whitlam, for example, it is subsidising home owners who buy rooftop solar, electric vehicle charging points and efficient appliances.

However, Dr Shaw said one of the main advantages of a community battery, compared with other initiatives, was it could benefit a wider range of people.

"This is one of the problems with household batteries — they require a large upfront investment and that's out of reach for some people."

Links

• Solar Upgrades For ACT Public Housing, First Batteries For Schools
• Community Batteries Benefit The Grid More Says Latest Research
• Canberra will be home to one of Australia's biggest batteries as ACT weans off fossil fuels
• 10 Hot Trends Shaping Australian Clean Energy
• Coal To Be Kaput In Australia By 2050, As Renewables, Batteries Take Over
• How Elon Musk's Big Tesla Battery Is Changing Australia's Power Landscape
• Stunning Drops In Solar, Wind Costs Mean Economic Case For Coal, Gas Is ‘Crumbling’
• Charging Ahead: How Australia Is Innovating Battery Technology
• Natural Gas Killed Coal – Now Renewables And Batteries Are Taking Over
• 'Paying for the mistakes of others': Why energy bosses want to be able to shut down household solar
• Power grab: Authorities look to control household solar systems to stabilise the grid
• Here's how the ACT has 100 per cent renewable power from today

12,000 Year Temperature Record

Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO)

Key Points A continuous record of global temperatures dating back 12,000 years that is linked to regional areas provides an important resource for understanding current climatic changes AN ANSTO environmental scientist assisted with locating records from the Australia and New Zealand zone for the database The publicly available online resource includes quality-controlled, published, proxy records from lake and ocean sediment, peak and glacial ice among others directly linked to temperature as a driver

A comprehensive global database of climate records extending back 12,000 years to the Holocene period, has been published.

The resource, which is available online, is needed to place recent warming events into the longer-term context of variability in natural climate.

The research supporting the database was published in Nature Scientific Data.

“On World Environment Day, a database might not be the most dramatic example of scientific research, but the availability of a resource such as this, is, in fact, great news for those of us who are trying to understand the history of our planet’s climate and the challenges we face today,” said Prof Henk Heijnis, Leader of environmental research at ANSTO.

“This repository, which has been established according to the most rigorous protocols, is a thing of scientific beauty and an essential resource for environmental researchers here and elsewhere,” said Heijnis.

Climate change is one part of ANSTO's research to understand environmental change, which also includes landscape reconstruction and human impacts.


Credit: NOAA.Climate.gov
Data: NCEI World Data Service Paleoclimatology

The database includes Australia and other areas in the Southern Hemisphere.

“As well as the 90 plus scientists who worked on the compilation of this database, it captures the contribution of many hundreds of researchers who have collected and analysed environmental samples at sites around the world over many years.”

The compilation of quality-controlled, published, proxy records linked to temperature in this database enables researchers to extract temperature records linked to specific locations on a regional scale.

A large group of close to 100 international contributors led by Prof Darrell Kaufman of Northern Arizona University, which included ANSTO environmental scientist Dr Krystyna Saunders, compiled data from natural archives at 679 global sites according to strict criteria on time frames and record quality.

Saunders, who has expertise in the use of environmental proxies to reconstruct climate and ecosystems, assisted in identifying records from the Southern Hemisphere to complete the repository.

Few global temperature data sets have been compiled based on evidence from such a wide variety of environmental proxies that include ecological, geochemical and biophysical evidence from lake (51%) and marine (31%) sediments, peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), among others.

The synthesised data can be compared with model-based simulations of climate to evaluate if the models provide accurate insights into the mechanisms and feedbacks associated with climate change.

For example, it is expected to be useful in understanding how the ocean-atmosphere circulation has evolved along with past global climate changes.

“There have been composites of temperature reconstructions from sites around the world before, but this is the most comprehensive. There is now a resource available for everyone. For example, if you are interested in Australasia, you can look up sites in the region and choose which are most relevant for your purposes, knowing the data have been assessed and are comparable” said Saunders.

Approximately 10 per cent of the database comprises records from the Southern Hemisphere but only a small proportion comes from Australia.

“The small number from Australia highlights the need for further work. This is something ANSTO environmental researchers and their collaborators are working on; not only for Australia, but at sites around the world.”

“In the past, researchers have been limited to a time slice, whereas now we have a comprehensive and continuous time series, in which temperature has been the main driver of the environmental information in the proxy records,” explained Saunders.

The database includes descriptions of the criteria used to include the records and extensive evidence of their statistical rigour to validate the accuracy of record standardisation. This involves a uniform suite of metadata descriptors across a wide variety of proxy data types.

The database complements the PAGES 2k Consortium database of global paleo-temperature records, which extends back 2000 years and is formatted similarly within the Linked PaleoData structure (LiPD1). Saunders’ previous work was included in this as the only example of a temperature record based on lake sediments that met the criteria for inclusion in Australia.

A diverse group of ANSTO scientists collaborates with academic partners to provide high-resolution data on environmental proxies using X-ray fluorescence scanning and other technique, adding to the database of environmental records in Australia.

ANSTO expects to make the data and related resources available to students through its education program.

Links

• A global database of Holocene paleotemperature records
• National Centers for Environmental Information Database
• ANSTO: Climate Change
• ANSTO: Environmental Change
• ANSTO: Environmental Change - Human Activities
• ANSTO: Environmental Change - Landscape

Climate Change: How A Green New Deal Really Could Go Global

BBC - Justin Rowlatt

The big attraction for politicians at this time of crisis is jobs. Getty Images

Justin Rowlatt is the BBC's Chief Environment correspondent.

Good news is in short supply at the moment, so brace yourself for a rare burst of optimism about climate change.

World leaders know their countries face one of the most severe recessions in history thanks to the coronavirus restrictions.

That presents a unique challenge, but also a massive opportunity.

Politicians know they are going to need to spend huge amounts of money to kick-start economic activity as the threat of coronavirus finally recedes.

It is a one-off, never-to-be-repeated chance to transform their economies. So the question is, what will they spend it on?

'Europe's moment'

This week the European Union put its cards on the table. On Wednesday it unveiled what it is billing as the biggest "green" stimulus package in history.

"This is about all of us and it is way bigger than any one of us," announced Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, when she told European Parliament members what was planned. "This is Europe's moment," she said.

As well as being a big step towards federalism, the recovery package puts fighting climate change at the heart of the bloc's recovery from the pandemic.

The scale of what is being proposed is mind-boggling. The headline figure is €750bn, but add in spending from future budgets and the total financial firepower the European Commission says it will be wielding is almost €2tn ($2.2tn).

There will be tens of billions of euros to make homes more energy efficient, to decarbonise electricity and phase out petrol and diesel vehicles.

The idea is to turbo-charge the European effort to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2050.

"If we do not do it we will be taking much more risk," Teresa Ribera, the deputy Prime Minister of Spain told me.

"The recovery should be green or it will not be a recovery, it will just be a short-cut into the kind of problems we are facing right now."

Ursula von der Leyen: The numbers she announced are huge. Getty Images

A Green New Deal

If you are thinking this is just something that sandal-wearing European liberals might get behind, think again.

Donald Trump may be an avowed supporter of fossil fuels, but his Democratic opponent in the November presidential election is not.

Joe Biden is reckoned to be planning a similarly huge green stimulus package for the US.

The model is the vast investment projects of the New Deal that helped lift America out of the Great Depression in the 1930s.

That was the defining policy of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

Biden is reportedly preparing for his own "FDR-size presidency", according to New York magazine.

"He knows he needs youth enthusiasm, he knows he needs the left, he knows he needs the core democratic base, and he knows climate is probably the best issue to get that," explains energy and climate analyst David Roberts of the US website Vox.

"Climate polls the best across all those groups, climate even polls pretty well among wavering Trump voters," he says.

This is not just about rallying voters. There are sound economic reasons why politicians see green technology as a prudent investment.

First off, renewables are now often cheaper than fossil fuels in large parts of the world.

The technologies are proven and can be built at scale today.

And most importantly, their cost follows the logic of all manufacturing - the more you produce, the cheaper it gets.

The same logic applies to hydrogen and to electric vehicles. But it does not apply to fossil fuels, whose cost ultimately relies on mining ever more difficult and dwindling resources.

And that contains the seductive promise that a huge government push to scale up solar and wind will make them even more affordable compared with coal, oil and gas - not just in the US, but globally.

So the argument goes that renewables provide a pathway for clean growth in the future.

Develop innovative new electric vehicles, wind turbines, ways of making homes energy-efficient, energy storage technologies or even new ways of configuring electricity grids and you are likely to find ready markets around the world in coming years.

Equally importantly, renewable technologies offer something else that will be needed in the years to come: the potential to create huge numbers of new jobs.

The Covid-19 crisis has driven joblessness to near Great Depression levels around the world - worse even than in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

Around 40 million Americans are unemployed.

Worldwide, 1.6 billion people are reckoned to be in immediate danger of losing their livelihoods, according to the International Labour Organisation.

That means governments need to find ways to employ lots and lots of people.

Renewable technologies offer precisely the kind of "shovel-ready", large-scale and labour-intensive infrastructure projects politicians are looking for.

There is the obvious stuff - building wind turbines, solar farms and the foundations of a hydrogen economy - but think also about installing networks of charging points for electric vehicles, the need to insulate homes or revamp urban transport systems.

Just like the road and dam building of the American New Deal, projects like these could employ tens of thousands of people in high-skilled and - crucially - local jobs.

China ramped up coal-fired power stations after the 2008 crash. Getty Images

The China question

But here's the rub. China currently looks set to take a very different route to recovery.

It remains the biggest piece of the climate change puzzle. China produces almost a third of the world's emissions, as much as the US and the EU combined.

Last week, the country's top legislative body, the annual National People's Congress, was in full session.

The country already has a big expansion of coal-fired electricity generation underway. There was no suggestion this would be reversed.

After the financial crisis in 2008, China ramped up coal-fired power stations as a key part of its stimulus package. But there is still a lot to play for this time round, says Li Shuo, an energy expert with Greenpeace East Asia in Beijing.

Few details of the Covid recovery plan were announced at the NPC, and he says much will depend on what American voters decide in November.

"The US position looms very large in China's political calculus," explains Mr Li.

He believes President Trump's energy policies are one of the major barriers to China raising its climate ambitions.

"I think there is a feeling here in China that it is unfair for Beijing to move forward with its climate agenda at the same time as the US is moving backwards."

That said, the Chinese public certainly seems to support measures to decarbonise the economy.

Eighty-seven percent of Chinese people see climate change as serious a threat as Covid-19, according to a poll conducted in 14 countries by Ipsos MORI in April.

Even in America, where support was lowest, 59% of people agreed that the risks of climate change matched those of the coronavirus in the long term.

Nearly two-thirds of all respondents and 57% of Americans said it was important that government actions aimed at economic recovery prioritised action on climate change.

A green deal could create a momentum that's hard to resist. Getty Images

Knock on effects

And once big economies like Europe and the US adopt policies like these, there is good reason to think other countries will follow suit.

One of the most striking - and controversial - aspects of the European plan is that it will be funded in large part by debt raised by the European Commission itself.

That represents a significant deepening or European integration that some member states have already signalled they will resist.

Under the proposal the hundreds of billions of euros of debt would be serviced by new EU-wide taxes.

One option being discussed is a carbon tax that would include levies on imported goods with a high carbon footprint.

Think about what that means.

Countries that want to sell into the largest economy in the world would now face penalties unless they make efforts to clean up their energy systems.

Now imagine that America embarks on a Green New Deal. It might choose to introduce a similar tariff.

But I opened this piece offering optimism, so let me present an alternative path.
The countries that decarbonise first could lead by example. Remember, the more renewables you produce, the cheaper they get.

As low carbon technologies increasingly undercut the fossil fuel alternatives, you won't need a stick to beat other countries into changing their ways - they will just follow the money.

You see where this is headed.? Maybe we are not as far away from widespread coordinated action on climate change as many people fear.

As I said at the start, a rare opportunity for optimism amongst the gloom of this present crisis.

Links

• European Green Deal - Wikipedia
• (US) Green New Deal - Wikipedia
• Australia needs a Green New Deal 
• Coronavirus: Five charts about the biggest carbon crash
• Coal power developers 'risk wasting billions'
• Record drop in energy investment, warns IEA
• Car surge could see CO2 rebound after Covid-19
• Top 10 tips for combating climate change revealed
• How coronavirus is driving a revolution in travel