30/07/2020

Climate Explained: Are We Doomed If We Don’t Manage To Curb Emissions By 2030?

The Conversation

Is humanity doomed? If in 2030 we have not reduced emissions in a way that means we stay under say 2℃ (I’ve frankly given up on 1.5℃), are we doomed then?

Thongden Studio/Shutterstock

Author
 is Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey University.

Climate Explained
Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre.
Humanity is not doomed, not now or even in a worst-case scenario in 2030.

But avoiding doom — either the end or widespread collapse of civilisation — is setting a pretty low bar.

We can aim much higher than that without shying away from reality.It’s right to focus on global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ in the first instance.

The many manifestations of climate change — including heat waves, droughts, water stress, more intense storms, wildfires, mass extinction and warming oceans — all get progressively worse as the temperature rises.

Climate scientist Michael Mann uses the metaphor of walking into an increasingly dense minefield.
Good reasons not to give up just yet

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change described the effects of a 1.5℃ increase in average temperatures in a special report last year. They are also nicely summarised in an article about why global temperatures matter, produced by NASA.

The global average temperature is currently about 1.2℃ higher than what it was at the time of the Industrial Revolution, some 250 years ago. We are already witnessing localised impacts, including the widespread coral bleaching on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef.

This graph shows different emission pathways and when the world is expected to reach global average temperatures of 1.5℃ or 2℃ above pre-industrial levels. Global Carbon Project, Author provided

Limiting warming to 1.5℃ requires cutting global emissions by 7.6% each year this decade. This does sound difficult, but there are reasons for optimism.

First, it’s possible technically and economically. For example, the use of wind and solar power has grown exponentially in the past decade, and their prices have plummeted to the point where they are now among the cheapest sources of electricity. Some areas, including energy storage and industrial processes such as steel and cement manufacture, still need further research and a drop in price (or higher carbon prices).

Second, it’s possible politically. Partly in response to the Paris Agreement, a growing number of countries have adopted stronger targets. Twenty countries and regions (including New Zealand and the European Union) are now targeting net zero emissions by 2050 or earlier.

A recent example of striking progress comes from Ireland – a country with a similar emissions profile to New Zealand. The incoming coalition’s “programme for government” includes emission cuts of 7% per year and a reduction by half by 2030.

Third, it’s possible socially. Since 2019, we have seen the massive growth of the School Strike 4 Climate movement and an increase in fossil fuel divestment. Several media organisations, including The Conversation, have made a commitment to evidence-based coverage of climate change and calls for a Green New Deal are coming from a range of political parties, especially in the US and Europe.

There is also a growing understanding that to ensure a safe future we need to consume less overall. If these trends continue, then I believe we can still stay below 1.5℃.

The pessimist perspective

Now suppose we don’t manage that. It’s 2030 and emissions have only fallen a little bit. We’re staring at 2℃ in the second half of the century.

At 2℃ of warming, we could expect to lose more than 90% of our coral reefs. Insects and plants would be at higher risk of extinction, and the number of dangerously hot days would increase rapidly.

The challenges would be exacerbated and we would have new issues to consider. First, under the “shifting baseline” phenomenon — essentially a failure to notice slow change and to value what is already lost — people might discount the damage already done. Continuously worsening conditions might become the new normal.

Second, climate impacts such as mass migration could lead to a rise of nationalism and make international cooperation harder. And third, we could begin to pass unpredictable “tipping points” in the Earth system. For example, warming of more than 2°C could set off widespread melting in Antarctica, which in turn would contribute to sea level rise.

But true doom-mongers tend to assume a worst-case scenario on virtually every area of uncertainty. It is important to remember that such scenarios are not very likely.

While bad, this 2030 scenario doesn’t add up to doom — and it certainly doesn’t change the need to move away from fossil fuels to low-carbon options.

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(AU) Heavy Industry Co-Operates To Take On Climate Change Challenge

Sydney Morning HeraldNick O'Malley

A group of Australia’s largest industrial companies has joined a new initiative designed to help them co-operate to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from operations and supply chains.

Companies including BHP, Woodside, BlueScope Steel, BP Australia, Orica, APA Group and Australia Gas Infrastructure Group — which together represent 13.6 per cent of Australian industrial greenhouse gas emissions — have signed on to the Australian Industry Energy Transitions Initiative, which hopes more will soon join.

Simon McKeon: "This [initiative] is not about corporate window dressing." Credit: Jesse Marlow

The initiative is to be chaired by Simon McKeon, Chancellor of Monash University, former CSIRO Chairman and 2011 Australian of the Year.

He said that the Australian business and industry community was deeply concerned about climate change and over the years had at times felt constrained rather than supported by governments in its efforts to address it.

“This [initiative] is not about corporate window dressing; it is about growth and success and in some cases even survival,” he said.

He said industry leaders were aware that public scrutiny of every aspect of business operations and their impact on climate change was high and would rapidly increase, leaving those who could not demonstrate how they were rapidly pursuing net zero emissions at significant risk.

Professor McKeon said that the group’s members had already decided that in its decision-making and public positions it would pursue a majority-rules principle and would not be constrained by interests of individual members.

The group aims to help its members decarbonise crucial industrial processes that provide high-export earnings for Australia but remain stubbornly carbon intensive, such as the manufacture of products such as steel, aluminium and other metals such as lithium, copper and nickel, and chemicals including explosives and fertiliser.

The group has also been joined by financial and services sector representatives such as NAB and Australian Super, and has research ties with the CSIRO and The Rocky Mountain Institute, a leading United States research group specialising in resource and energy efficiency.

It is convened by the not-for-profit bodies ClimateWorks Australia and Climate-KIC Australia in collaboration with the Energy Transitions Commission.

ClimateWorks chief executive Anna Skarbek, one of the driving forces of Initiative’s creation, said such initiatives were crucial because emissions were a threat that did not observe national boundaries and because there were commercial advantages in addressing the problem.

“That’s why a supply chain approach is vital,” she said. “Globally, many countries and businesses are already moving to decarbonise supply chains in heavy industry sectors. There are huge opportunities for Australian businesses if they take a proactive approach to getting into this race.”

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(AU) Almost 3 Billion Animals Affected By Australian Bushfires, Report Shows

The Guardian |


Almost 3 billion animals affected by Australian bushfires – video report

Nearly 3 billion animals were killed or displaced by Australia’s devastating bushfire season of 2019 and 2020, according to scientists who have revealed for the first time the scale of the impact on the country’s native wildlife.

The Guardian has learned that an estimated 143 million mammals, 180 million birds, 51 million frogs and a staggering 2.5 billion reptiles were affected by the fires that burned across the continent. Not all the animals would have been killed by the flames or heat, but scientists say the prospects of survival for those that had withstood the initial impact was “probably not that great” due to the starvation, dehydration and predation by feral animals – mostly cats – that followed.

An interim report based on work by 10 scientists from five institutions, commissioned by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), suggests the toll from the fires goes much further than an earlier estimate of more than 1 billion animals killed.

Scientists from the University of Sydney, University of New South Wales, University of Newcastle, Charles Sturt University and Birdlife Australia contributed to the study.

Dermot O’Gorman, WWF-Australia’s chief executive, said: “It’s hard to think of another event anywhere in the world in living memory that has killed or displaced that many animals. This ranks as one of the worst wildlife disasters in modern history.”

Chris Dickman, a professor in ecology at the University of Sydney and fellow of the Australian Academy of Science who oversaw the project, said its central finding was a shock even to the researchers. “Three thousand million native vertebrates is just huge. It’s a number so big that you can’t comprehend it,” he said. “It’s almost half the human population of the planet.”

Dickman said the project showed the impact of the fires was much greater than the devastating loss of koalas, which became the public face of the disaster to international audiences. Many of the reptiles affected were smaller species, such as skinks, that can live in densities of more than 1,500 individuals per hectare.


'We're helpless': thousands of koalas probably dead after wildfires – video

Lead researcher Lily van Eeden, of the University of Sydney, said the study was the first to attempt a continent-wide assessment of the impact of bushfires on animals. The analysis is based on a burned zone of 11.46m hectares (28.31m acres), an area nearly the size of England. It includes about 8.5m hectares of forest, mostly in the southeast and southwest but including 120,000 hectares of northern rainforest.

The study showed the extent to which megafires were reducing the country’s biodiversity, and underlined the need to address the climate crisis and stop the clearing of land for agriculture and development, said Dickman.

“We really need to start thinking about how we can rein in this demonic genie that’s out of the bottle,” he said, referring to climate change. “We need to be looking at how quickly can we decarbonise, how quickly can we stop our manic land-clearing.”

A dead native bird washed up among ash and fire debris on Boydtown Beach, Eden. Photograph: Tracey Nearmy/Reuters 

Since the late 1980s Australian scientists have been warning that adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere would increase bushfire risk.

An analysis in March found the risk of the kind of hot and dry conditions that helped drive Australia’s catastrophic fires had increased by a factor of more than four since 1900, and would be eight times more likely if global heating above pre-industrial levels reached 2C.

In evidence to a royal commission into the bushfires in May, the Australian meteorology bureau presented data showing dangerous fire weather in southeast New South Wales and Victoria was now starting in August, three months earlier than in the 1950s.

An endangered Rosenberg’s monitor after being rescued from the fires. Photograph: David Mariuz/EPA

The WWF-backed analysis is the latest of several papers to map the devastating impact of the bushfires.

A peer-reviewed study by three ecology professors in June concluded that the fires had caused “the most dramatic loss of habitat for threatened species and devastation of ecological communities in postcolonial history”.

This month a separate paper drawing on the work of more than 20 leading Australian scientists found that 49 native species not currently listed as threatened could now be at risk, while government data suggested 471 plant and 191 invertebrate species needed urgent attention.

The WWF report says several techniques were used to estimate animal numbers. Mammal numbers were based on published data on the densities of each species in different areas; bird numbers were derived from BirdLife Australia data based on nearly 104,000 standardised surveys; reptile estimates were modelled using knowledge of environmental conditions, body size and a global database of reptile densities.

The scientists said their estimates were conservative due to limitations in the methodologies used. The number of invertebrates, fish and turtles affected was not estimated due to a lack of relevant data. A final report is due next month.

Several scientists have called for an overhaul of threatened species protection in the wake of the bushfires, including better monitoring of biodiversity. Conservationists have linked Australia’s limited monitoring of its wildlife to a funding for environment programmes being cut by more than a third since the conservative Coalition government was elected in 2013.

O’Gorman said the report should be considered as part of an ongoing independent review of Australia’s national environment laws. “Following such a heavy toll on Australia’s wildlife, strengthening this law has never been more important,” he said.

An injured koala rests in a washing basket at the Kangaroo Island wildlife park. Photograph: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

An interim report from the review released last week said the country was losing biodiversity at an alarming rate and had one of the highest rates of extinction in the world. It said existing laws were not fit to address current or future environmental challenges.

Scott Morrison’s government responded by announcing it would introduce new national environmental standards against which major development approvals would be judged.

But the government has been criticised for pushing to change the laws to allow it to devolve approval decisions to state and territory governments before completion of the review and before the new standards were ready to improve biodiversity protection.

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29/07/2020

(AU) ‘A Wake-Up Call’: Why This Student Is Suing The Government Over The Financial Risks Of Climate Change

The Conversation | 

Shutterstock

Authors

As the world warms, the value of “safe” investments might be at risk from inadequate climate change policies.

This prospect is raised by a world-first climate change case, filed in the federal court last week.

Katta O’Donnell – a 23-year-old law student from Melbourne – is suing the Australian government for failing to disclose climate change risks to investors in Australia’s sovereign bonds.

Sovereign bonds involve loans of money from investors to governments for a set period at a fixed interest rate. They’re usually thought to be the safest form of investment. For example, many Australians are invested in sovereign bonds through their superannuation funds.

But as climate change presents major risks to our economy as well as the environment, O'Donnell’s claim is a wake-up call to the government that it can no longer bury its head in the sand when it comes to this vulnerability.

Katta O'Donnell is bringing the class action lawsuit against the Australian government. Molly Townsend
O'Donnell’s arguments

O’Donnell argues Australia’s poor climate policies – ranked among the lowest in the industrialised world – put the economy at risk from climate change.

She says climate-related risks should be properly disclosed in information documents to sovereign bond investors.

O'Donnell’s claim alleges that by failing to disclose this information, the federal government breaches its legal duty.

It alleges the government has engaged in misleading and deceptive conduct, and government officials breached their duty of care and diligence.

This is a standard similar to that owed by Australian company directors.

Analysis from leading barristers indicates that directors who fail to consider climate risks could be found liable for breaching their duty of care and diligence.

O'Donnell argues government officials providing information to investors in sovereign bonds should meet the same benchmark.

Climate change as a financial risk

Under climate change, the world is already experiencing physical impacts, such as intense droughts and unprecedented bushfires. But we’re also experiencing “transition impacts” from steps countries take to prevent further warming, such as transitioning away from coal.
Combined, these impacts of climate change create financial risks. For example, by damaging property, assets and operations, or by reducing demand for fossil fuels with the risk coal mines and reserves become stranded assets.

This thinking is becoming mainstream among Australian economists. As the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s Geoff Summerhayes put it:
When a central bank, a prudential regulator and a conduct regulator, with barely a hipster beard or hemp shirt between them, start warning that climate change is a financial risk, it’s clear that position is now orthodox economic thinking.
Why safe investments are under threat

Sovereign bonds are a long-term investment. Katta O’Donnell’s bonds, for example, will mature in 2050. These time-frames dovetail with scientific projections about when the world will see severe impacts and costs from climate change.

And climate change is likely to hit Australia particularly hard. We’ve seen the beginning of this in the summer’s ferocious bushfires, which cost the economy more than A$100 billion.

Over time, climate risks may impact sovereign bonds and affect Australia’s financial position in a number of ways. For example, by impacting GDP when the productive capacity of the economy is reduced by severe fires or floods.

Frequent climate-related disasters could also hit foreign exchange rates, causing fluctuations of the Australian dollar, as well as putting Australia’s AAA credit rating at risk. These risks would reduce if the government took climate change more seriously.

Already, some investors are voting with their feet. Last November, Sweden’s central bank announced it had sold Western Australian and Queensland bonds, stating Australia is “not known for good climate work”.

Unprecedented, but not novel

O’Donnell’s case against the federal government is an unprecedented climate case, even if its arguments are not novel.

Australia has been a “hotspot” for climate litigation in recent years, but the O'Donnell case is the first to sue the Australian government in an Australian court.

Previous cases suing governments have often raised human rights, such as the high-profile Urgenda case in 2015 against the Dutch government – the first case in the world establishing governments owe their citizens a legal duty to prevent climate change.

A Dutch court ordered the government to cut the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 25 percent by 2020. AP Photo/Peter Dejong

The O'Donnell case is also unique in its focus on sovereign bonds. But cases alleging misleading climate-related disclosures are themselves not new.

In Australia, shareholders sued the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in 2017 for failing to disclose climate change-related risks in its 2016 annual report. The case was settled after the bank agreed to improve disclosures in subsequent reports.

In another headline-making case, 23-year-old council worker Mark McVeigh is taking his superannuation fund, Retail Employees Superannuation Trust, to court seeking similar disclosures.

The O'Donnell case builds on this line of precedent, extending it to disclosures in bond information documents. As such, courts will likely take it seriously.

What precedent might it set?

If the O'Donnell case is successful it could establish the need for disclosure of climate-related financial risks for a range of investments.

At a minimum, a ruling in O'Donnell’s favour may compel the Australian government to disclose climate-related risks in its information documents for investors. This might make people think twice about how they choose to invest their money, especially as investors seek to “green” their portfolios.

It could also give rise to litigation using the same legal theory in sovereign bond disclosure claims against other governments, much in the way that the Urgenda case has spawned copycat proceedings from Belgium to Canada.

Whether the case provides the impetus for further government action to improve the effectiveness of Australia’s climate policies remains to be seen.

Still, it’s clear climate-related financial risks have entered the corporate boardroom. With this case, they’ve now come knocking at the government’s door.

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It’s Been A Landmark Year For Investor Action On Climate Change

Los Angeles Times - Attracta Mooney | Patrick Temple-WestFinancial Times

A resolution calling on Chevron to disclose its lobbying on global warming passed this year. (Chevron)

As 2020 kicked off, Dan Gocher at the Australasian Center for Corporate Responsibility, a shareholder advocacy organization, was feeling “pretty optimistic” about its plans to force big Australian energy companies to tackle climate change.

BlackRock, the $6.8-trillion asset manager, and other large investors had proclaimed an urgent need to arrest global warming. With the renewed focus on climate change following devastating bush fires in Australia, the ACCR was hopeful several climate-related resolutions filed at oil and gas producers Santos and Woodside would gain strong shareholder support at their annual meetings in April.

Then came the COVID-19 pandemic. “Once the virus hit, we said, ‘God, we won’t get anything done [on climate change] for 18 months,’” Gocher said.

Like many others, Gocher feared investors would swiftly retreat from recent climate pledges as markets plummeted. Critics had long argued that the fund industry’s nascent love affair with environmental, social and governance investing, or ESG, was in reality a marketing ploy that would be dumped at the first sign of trouble.

Instead, in spite of the pandemic, 2020 has proved to be a landmark year for investor action on climate change, with significant resolutions being passed and investment pouring into sustainable funds. With regulators and clients increasingly calling for change, asset managers are broadening their remit beyond energy-intensive industries such as oil.

Rather than drive investor attention away from climate change, the pandemic has cemented interest, with many investors fearing the economic fallout seen during the pandemic could be replicated if the world fails to halt global warming, said Mirza Baig, global head of governance at Aviva Investors.

Until the coronavirus outbreak, “there was still a significant portion of the investor base” that believed tackling climate change “could wait until tomorrow,” he said. “That has changed. Companies and investors are starting to look at the importance of acting now.”

At Santos, 43% of shareholders supported a resolution to require the energy company to set targets in line with the Paris agreement to tackle climate change — the first time a targets-based resolution had received such a high level of support in any country. More than half of shareholders voted in favor of a similar motion at Woodside a few weeks later. “We were very much surprised by the support,” Gocher said.

In Japan, 35% of shareholders supported the country’s first-ever climate change proposal at Mizuho Financial, calling on the banking group to disclose a Paris agreement plan.

In the U.S., a resolution calling on Chevron to disclose its lobbying on global warming passed, while almost half of shareholders backed a climate proposal at JPMorgan, the U.S. bank.

The fact that only a few of these resolutions passed demonstrates that the arguments within the investment world are far from settled. But pressure on energy companies from the world’s most powerful investors is rapidly increasing. Ordinarily for resolutions of this type, 99% of shareholders vote according to management recommendations, according to Follow This, a green shareholders’ group that filed resolutions at European energy companies BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Equinor.

Overall, in the U.S. and Canada, average investor support for environmental resolutions during the first six months of 2020 was 32.7%, up from 21.9% in 2019, according to Proxy Insight, a data provider.

“We have had the most successful [annual general meeting] season ever [for climate resolutions], but because of COVID it didn’t get much attention,” said Mark van Baal of Follow This. “One by one, these investors see that climate change is such a threat to their assets.”

The Greta factor

Since the Paris agreement was drafted in 2015, the $85-trillion asset management industry has slowly awoken to the growing risks of global warming.

The enormous publicity surrounding the campaigns of Greta Thunberg and Extinction Rebellion in 2019 forced even the most skeptical of big investors to pay attention, said Wolfgang Kuhn, director of financial sector strategies at ShareAction, a responsible investment charity.

“You suddenly have every asset manager talking about how deeply ingrained ESG is in their DNA,” he said. “There is good work going on, but it is also true that if you are seen to be responding to this trend and introducing the right products, you can make money from this.”

European asset managers including Nordea, Legal and General Investment Management, BNP Paribas Asset Management, Aviva Investors and Robeco have been at the forefront of this movement.

Investment companies from the U.S. to Australia have been slower to react. A study by ShareAction found that 38 of the world’s 75 largest asset managers scored badly on ESG issues, including BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street. The three firms are hugely influential and control about a quarter of U.S. markets alone through the popularity of their passive funds and other investment products, meaning their views drive change in the corporate boardroom.

After years of criticism over alleged inaction, BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, in January revealed plans to put climate change at the center of its investment process by rolling out new ESG funds, divesting some coal holdings and taking a tough line on global warming during boardroom discussions with businesses around the world. At the time, BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink warned that global warming represented a risk to markets unlike any previous crisis.

This prospect of a financial hit has galvanized many investors. In an open letter in March, pension fund executives, including Hiro Mizuno, who was at the time chief investment officer of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest, said climate change has the potential to destroy $69 trillion in global economic wealth by 2100.

Regulators such as Mark Carney, former head of the Bank of England, have also warned of a big investment risk from “stranded assets” — where investors have holdings that become unsellable because of climate change.

For others, their new foray into climate issues has been driven by demand from clients, including younger investors who want their investments to do good as well as generate a return. Even as investors retreated from mainstream funds during the pandemic, ESG products continued to attract cash. Sustainable funds in Europe pulled in nearly $35 billion in the first quarter of 2020, compared with outflows of $172 billion across all European-based funds, according to Morningstar, the data provider.

ESG fund performance has been strong. Research from BlackRock in May found that sustainable strategies have outperformed during this year’s period of intense volatility, with 94% of leading sustainable indices beating their parent benchmarks in the first quarter.

With a growing business case, more than 450 asset managers, with $40 trillion in assets, have signed up to an initiative called Climate Action 100+ to force the world’s biggest carbon emitters to tackle global warming. BlackRock joined the group in January.

“There has been a big shift in the past five years: The understanding, the awareness of climate change has grown enormously, particularly in the last year,” said Eugenia Unanyants-Jackson, ESG research head at Allianz Global Investors.

“It is a physical risk to people, it’s a big risk to our investment portfolios, and we need to do something.”

Growth in ESG expertise

With their newfound interest in global warming and other ESG issues, asset managers have gone on a hiring spree. The number of investment professionals specializing in holding boards to account on issues such as climate change and corporate governance almost doubled at the world’s biggest asset managers over the last three years, according to Financial Times research, while they have also invested heavily in building new systems to examine climate risk.

Their interactions with companies on climate issues are also changing. For years, small religious organizations or advocacy groups spearheaded climate change agitation at companies. These lonely crusades, though supported by a handful of other mainstream investors, failed to rattle most boardrooms.

“A lot of faith-based investors have been raising these issues for years and years,” said Kate Monahan at Friends Fiduciary, a nonprofit investment firm for 400 Quaker communities with more than $500 million in assets under management in Philadelphia.

These religious investors now have company, with big asset managers also taking a more active approach at annual meetings. BNP Paribas Asset Management, for example, filed this year’s environmental lobbying proposal at Chevron.

Asset managers are also more willing than ever to use their vote to push for environmental change. “It was almost a rule that [asset managers] don’t vote for an NGO [climate] resolution. But it looks like that is changing now,” Van Baal said.

Still, there is a divide in how big asset managers vote. BlackRock and Vanguard supported no environmental resolutions in the U.S. in 2015, but those figures rose to 13.8% and 16.7% respectively in 2019, according to Proxy Insight. BNP Paribas Asset Management and Allianz Global Investors, in contrast, backed at least 90% of environmental resolutions in the U.S. last year.

BlackRock was criticized for failing to support the climate resolutions at Woodside and Santos. But it supported other environmental proposals this year, including the lobbying motion at Chevron. It has also begun voting against the reelection of board directors over climate concerns, taking this approach at 50 companies globally this year.

“Because we believe climate risk is investment risk, we are most focused on companies that face material financial risks in the transition to a low-carbon economy and, as a result, present the greatest risks to our clients’ investments,” said Amra Balic, head of BlackRock investment stewardship for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Not everyone is convinced by BlackRock’s approach. The chief executive of a rival asset manager, who declined to be named, said targeting directors over global warming, whether through boardroom discussions or voting at annual meetings, was a good step, but often it was necessary to join other investors in sending a big signal to companies through climate resolutions.

“There are a lot of [asset managers] who say they do [care about climate change] but can’t prove it,” he said. “There are people who say they do [factor it into their investments], but look at the voting record. Look at BlackRock’s voting record.”

Eli Kasargod-Staub, executive director of Majority Action, a nonprofit shareholder advocacy organization, added that support from the world’s largest asset manager could have swung climate-critical resolutions at Delta Air Lines, Dominion Energy and JPMorgan Chase to majority support.

Increased scrutiny

With public pledges and increased staff, companies now face the prospect of intense shareholder scrutiny. Small shareholders such as Monahan at Friends Fiduciary were easy to ignore, but large asset managers cannot be easily brushed aside.

The jump by large investment firms into the climate change fight “will send a shiver up the spine of the companies that have not dealt with this before or are ignoring the issue,” said Jamie Bonham, director of corporate engagement at NEI Investments, a small Canadian investment manager with $5.8 billion of assets under management.

“You will see corporate boards a lot more willing to negotiate with shareholders on avoiding proposals,” he said. For companies, “they see the writing on the wall. If they go to the annual general meeting, then it is quite possible they are going to lose the vote.”

As well as increased scrutiny, investors are asking tougher questions. The focus previously was getting companies to disclose the risks they face from climate change, but shareholders are now increasingly demanding they outline a plan for a transition to a low-carbon economy.

Rakhi Kumar, head of ESG investments and asset stewardship at State Street Global Advisors, said: “Four or five years ago, you would probably debate [with companies] if climate change was a risk or not. Now you are no longer debating that. Most companies have got the message that this is a concern for investors.”

It marks a big shift for companies, many of which have lobbied heavily for a relaxation of tough climate rules and a reduction in shareholder power.

In response, some European oil companies such as BP and Shell have outlined so-called net zero ambitions in response to investor pressure. But in many cases, this has not been enough to appease all investors — resolutions calling for several European oil companies to set hard targets on climate change received more support this year than last, despite the companies’ pledges.

It is not just carbon-intensive companies such as oil, petrochemicals and mining that are feeling the pressure. Barclays, the U.K. bank, was forced to unveil a new climate plan this year after shareholders targeted it. JPMorgan said in May that board member Lee Raymond, a former chief executive of ExxonMobil, would step down after intense pressure from activists and shareholders.

“It was part of every conversation in Davos. I’m talking about climate, in particular,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said at his bank’s investor day in February. “We’re taking it very seriously.”

The path to greener investment is not assured, with other companies still shrugging off asset managers’ new threat. “Our companies are not worried,” said Charles Crain at the National Assn. of Manufacturers, whose members include ExxonMobil.

In the U.S. there is growing pushback against investors acting as climate warriors. Asset managers are gearing up for a fight with the Trump administration over a new proposal that threatens investors’ ability to incorporate ESG principles into pension portfolios. At the same time, many well-known asset managers are still reluctant to vote against management, meaning the vast majority of climate resolutions do not pass.

Tom Quaadman at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said that although there has been more support for environmental shareholder proposals this year, behind-the-scenes conversations between companies and investors tend to resolve climate change concerns before a proxy vote, convincing worried investors not to vote against management.

“Clearly asset managers are being more vocal,” Quaadman said. “Even with an uptick this year, the fact that there has been a low level of those proposals passing indicates that companies are having very serious discussions with their investors on this.”

Gocher, of the Australasian Center for Corporate Responsibility, said it remains to be seen whether companies will listen to shareholders.

“Getting these votes doesn’t mean companies will change,” he said. “Really the test comes in the next 12 to 18 months to see if investors demand the things they voted for.” That will be the test of whether companies “heed that warning investors have given them.”

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Deutsche Bank Says It Will No Longer Invest In Fracking Or Arctic Oil As Banks Turn Away From Fossil Fuels

Business InsiderShalini Nagarajan

Getty

Key Points
  • Deutsche Bank said it will no longer finance oil sand or energy projects in the Arctic as part of its new fossil fuels policy.
  • The German lender is cutting ties with fracking projects in countries with scarce water supply, and aims to end business activities in coal mining by 2025.
  • By the of end 2020, Deutsche Bank will review all existing oil-and-gas businesses in Europe and the US, it said.
  • For businesses in Asia, a review is expected to conducted in 2022 but that will likely take longer as the region is highly dependent on coal power.
Deutsche Bank said on Monday it would no longer fund oil sand or new energy projects in the Arctic region, as banks become more conscious of their carbon footprint, and contributions to climate change.

The German bank also said it would end all fracking projects in countries with short water supply, and halt global business activities in coal mining by 2025.

By the end of 2020, Deutsche Bank said it would review all planned business activities that are highly dependent on coal in Europe and the US.

A similar review of businesses in Asia is scheduled to begin in 2022, although this is expected to take longer owing to the region's high dependence on coal power compared to much of the world.

The moves are part of the bank's new fossil fuels policy that contribute to wider sustainability targets set in May this year.

The revamped fossil fuels policy provides a "strict framework" for financing and capital market transactions towards bank activities tied to coal, oil, and gas.

Chief executive Christian Sewing said the policy sets the bank's "ambitious targets" and will help "the EU to achieve its goal of being climate neutral by 2050."

Deutsche Bank issued its first own green bond, a bond tied to an environmental project, in June.

In February, JPMorgan said it would stop all business with coal companies and restrict financing to those that drill in the Arctic.

The bank still provides some loans to coal businesses, but aims to phase those out by 2024.

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis last year estimated that over 100 financial institutions would move away from coal lending "including 40% of the top 40 global banks and 20 globally significant insurers."

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28/07/2020

Just How Sensitive Is The Climate To Increased Carbon Dioxide? Scientists Are Narrowing In On The Answer

The Conversation |  | 

NASA/Reid Wiseman

Authors
  •  is Met Office Head of Climate Impacts Research and Professor, University of Exeter
  •  is Principal Fellow, Met Office Hadley Centre and Professor, Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds
  • is Research Scientist in Atmospheric Physics, Met Office Hadley Centre
At the dawn of the industrial revolution, the Earth’s atmosphere contained 278 parts of CO₂ per million.

Today, after more than two and a half centuries of fossil fuel use, that figure is around 414 parts per million (ppm).

If the build-up of CO₂ continues at current rates, by 2080 it will have passed 560 ppm – more than double the level of pre-industrial times.

Exactly how the climate will respond to all this extra CO₂ is one of the central questions in climate science.

Just how much will the climate actually change?

A major new international assessment of the Earth’s climate sensitivity, now published in the journal Reviews of Geophysics, addresses this question. This research has improved our understanding of how much the world will eventually warm if the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is maintained at double the level of pre-industrial times.

While an exact figure is still not possible, low levels of warming are now found to be far less likely than previously thought. Very high values are slightly less likely too. There is much greater certainty that, if left unchecked, global warming would be high enough to bring very severe impacts and risks worldwide.

The study, which was organised by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and involving many leading climate scientists (including one of us: Tim), looks at a measure called “equilibrium climate sensitivity”. This refers to how much global average temperatures will increase by in the long-term following a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations. It can be estimated using three main lines of evidence:
  1. Temperature measurements made with thermometers from 1850 (when enough global coverage began) to the near present. By comparing temperatures, CO₂ levels and the effect of other climate drivers in the past and present, we can estimate the longer-term changes.

  2. Evidence from paleoclimate records from the peak of the last ice age 20,000 years ago, when CO₂ was lower than now, and a warm period around 4 million years ago when CO₂ was more comparable to today. We can tell how warm the climate was and how much CO₂ there was in the atmosphere based on the make-up of gases trapped in air bubbles in ancient ice cores.

  3. Present-day observations – for instance from satellite data – and evidence from climate models, theory and detailed process models that examine the physics of interactions within the climate system.
Despite its importance, equilibrium climate sensitivity is very uncertain and for many years the standard estimate has been 1.5°C to 4.5°C. In its 5th Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gave these values as the “likely range”, which meant it considered there was at least a 66% chance that it fell within this range. Or, in other words, it judged there was up to a 33% chance that warming would either be less than 1.5°C or more than 4.5°C.

The new study suggests that this “likely range” has narrowed to, at most, 2.3°C to 4.5°C – or possibly an even narrower range*. The lower end of the range has therefore risen substantially, meaning that scientists are now much more confident that global warming will not be small.

Global warming assessments old and new

Ranges of equilibrium climate sensitivity from the IPCC and the new study.

We won’t be saved by low sensitivity

An important implication is that humans would be taking an even bigger risk than previously thought if we relied on low climate sensitivity to allow us to meet the Paris Agreement target of keeping global temperatures to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to “pursue efforts” to limit warming to 1.5°C.

This is therefore further confirmation that CO₂ emissions need to be rapidly reduced and ultimately reach net zero if the Paris targets are to have a good chance of being met.

According to the study, if CO₂ does reach double the pre-industrial level and stays there (or to be precise, if the total effect of all human impact on greenhouse gases and other climate drivers reaches an equivalent level), then there is up to an 18% chance that temperatures will rise to 4.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and a no more than 5% chance that they will go above 5.7°C.

This has important implications for climate change risk assessments. In a risk assessment, it is normal to consider outcomes that are possible even if they are not the most likely.

The latest climate models have a wide range of climate sensitivities, with our own Met Office models at the high end. This happens because climate sensitivity is not something that scientists input to the models, but rather it emerges from the same complex interactions the models simulate.

This diversity of models lets us understand the regional changes in climate and extreme weather associated with different climate sensitivities, and assess their potential impacts. This includes the high sensitivities that are less likely but still possible. At the other end of the range, seeing the minimum changes we can expect will help inform climate change adaptation measures.

The new study allows a key aspect of climate models, their climate sensitivity, to be seen in the context of other evidence. While there is still more to be done to assess more precisely how the global climate will respond to further increases in greenhouse gases, these advances provide a much more solid base of evidence on which climate change policy can be further developed.

* WCRP provides two sets of ranges. The first is based on a “baseline” calculation which represents a single interpretation of the evidence and may be over-confident. The second set of “robust” ranges are designed to bound the range of plausible alternative interpretations of the evidence and statistical modelling assumptions. The numbers quoted in this article are from the robust range. For further details, see Sherwood et. al, 2020

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