02/01/2021

Is Nuclear Fusion The Answer To The Climate Crisis?

The Guardian

Promising new studies suggest the long elusive technology may be capable of producing electricity for the grid by the end of the decade

A rendering of Sparc, a nuclear fusion reactor currently under development. Scientists behind Sparc hope it will be capable of producing electricity for the grid by 2030. Photograph: T Henderson/CFS/MIT-PSFC/Wikimedia


If all goes as planned, the US will eliminate all greenhouse gas emissions from its electricity sector by 2035 – an ambitious goal set by President-elect Joe Biden, relying in large part on a sharp increase in wind and solar energy generation. 

That plan may soon get a boost from nuclear fusion, a powerful technology that until recently had seemed far out of reach.

Researchers developing a nuclear fusion reactor that can generate more energy than it consumes have shown in a series of recent papers that their design should work, restoring optimism that this clean, limitless power source will help mitigate the climate crisis.

While the new reactor still remains in early development, scientists hope it will be able to start producing electricity by the end of the decade.

Martin Greenwald, one of the project’s senior scientists, said a key motivation for the ambitious timeline is meeting energy requirements in a warming world. “Fusion seems like one of the possible solutions to get ourselves out of our impending climate disaster,” he said.

Nuclear fusion, the physical process that powers our sun, occurs when atoms are pushed together at extremely high temperatures and pressure, causing them to release tremendous amounts of energy by merging into heavier atoms.

Since it was first discovered last century, scientists have sought to harness fusion, an extremely dense form of power whose fuel – hydrogen isotopes – are abundant and replenishable. Moreover, fusion produces no greenhouse gases or carbon, and unlike fission nuclear reactors, carries no risk of meltdown.

Fusion seems like one of the possible solutions to get ourselves out of our impending climate disaster
Martin Greenwald
Harnessing this form of nuclear power, though, has proven extremely difficult, requiring heating a soup of subatomic particles, called plasma, to hundreds of millions of degrees – far too hot for any material container to withstand. To work around this, scientists developed a donut-shaped chamber with a strong magnetic field running through it, called a tokamak, which suspends the plasma in place.

MIT scientists and a spinoff company, Commonwealth Fusion Systems, began designing the new reactor, which is more compact than its predecessors, in early 2018, and will start construction in the first half of next year.

If their timeline goes as planned, the reactor, called Sparc, will be capable of producing electricity for the grid by 2030, according to researchers and company officials. This would be far faster than existing major fusion power initiatives.

Existing reactor designs are too large and expensive to realistically generate electricity for consumers. Through the use of cutting-edge, ultra-strong magnets, the team at MIT and Commonwealth Fusion hope to make a tokamak reactor that is compact, efficient and scalable. “What we’ve really done is combine an existing science with new material to open up vast new possibilities,” Greenwald said

Having demonstrated that the Sparc device can theoretically produce more energy than it requires to run in the research papers published in September, the next step involves building the reactor, followed by a pilot plant that will generate electricity onto the grid.

Scientists and entrepreneurs have long made promises about fusion being just around the corner, only to encounter insurmountable problems. This has created reluctance to invest in it, particularly as wind, solar and other renewables — although less powerful than fusion — have become more efficient and cost effective.

But the tide is changing. In Biden’s $2tn plan, he named advanced nuclear technologies as part of the decarbonization strategy, the first time the Democrats have endorsed nuclear energy since 1972. There is also significant investment coming from private sources, including some major oil and gas companies, who see fusion as a better long term pivot than wind and solar.

According to Bob Mumgaard, chief executive of Commonwealth Fusion, the aim is not to use fusion to replace solar and wind, but to supplement them. “There are things that will be hard to do with only renewables, industrial scale things, like powering large cities or manufacturing,” he said. “This is where fusion can come in.”

The plasma science community is generally enthusiastic about Sparc’s progress, though some question the ambitious timeline, given engineering and regulatory hurdles.

Daniel Jassby, who worked as a research scientist at the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab for 25 years, is skeptical about whether a fusion reactor like SPARC will ever provide a feasible alternative source of energy. Tritium, one of the hydrogen isotopes that will be used as fuel by Sparc, is not naturally occurring and will need to be produced, he said.

The team at MIT propose that this substance will be regenerated continuously by the fusion reaction itself. But Jassby believes that this will require a huge amount of electricity, which will make the reactor prohibitively expensive. “When you consider we get solar and wind energy for free, to rely on fusion reaction would be foolish,” he said.

Mumgaard concedes that the challenges that lie ahead are daunting. But he remains confident.

“There is a broader trend in acknowledging how important climate is and that we need all hands on deck,” he said. “We got into this problem with technology, but with fusion there are big opportunities to solve this with technology.”

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(AU) Cabinet Papers: How Howard Government Could Have Avoided Climate Wars

NEWS.com.au - Finn McHugh

The dogged opposition of a key minister helped block an emissions trading scheme throughout the 2000s, paving the way for two decades of climate wars. 

The 2000 cabinet papers show John Howard’s cabinet had an almost unanimous view of an ETS as effective and inevitable. Source: News Limited

Australia could have avoided two decades of climate wars had the Howard government pushed ahead with its majority view of an emissions trading scheme (ETS), newly released documents reveal.

The National Archives has released the 2000 cabinet papers, showing John Howard’s cabinet had an almost unanimous view of an ETS as effective and inevitable.

The scheme was ultimately scuppered by internal divisions.

Historian Chris Wallace said the lack of climate change scepticism in the 2000 cabinet was in stark contrast to the current Coalition, which has been mired by factionalism over the issue.

“The distinctive thing about these papers is that they don’t show any science versus politics binary,” she said.

The 2000 cabinet papers reveal John Howard’s cabinet viewed an ETS as effective and inevitable, but the scheme was ultimately sunk. Source: News Limited

“The picture the papers show is one where the science is not questioned, it’s not even mentioned.

“There’s just a broad expectation coming through cabinet submissions … that there was likely to be a neutral market solution to this issue, and that an ETS was only a matter of time.”

The documents reveal cabinet wanted to act decisively to end uncertainty for investors, a problem that continues to hinder the energy sector today.

The government conducted a feasibility study into an ETS in 2000, and then Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson said the debate “lined people up in unusual ways”.

“People you would not have thought of as economic rationalists around the table argued the economic rationalist position,” Mr Anderson said.

“Those who we might have thought of as being deeply committed to a free enterprise model were surprisingly interventionist.”

Industry Minister Nick Minchin staunchly opposed the ETS. Picture: Michael Jones

Chief among those was Industry Minister Nick Minchin, who attempted to derail an ETS by insisting cabinet should only approve it if there was an established international trading scheme.

“Minchin’s perspective was … that we not make ourselves cleaner but poorer and others dirtier but richer,” Mr Anderson said.

A tug of war between Mr Minchin and Environment Minister Robert Hill continued all year.

Mr Minchin ultimately prevailed, defining the Coalition’s climate policy for two decades.

Treasurer Peter Costello’s proposal for an ETS was rejected by cabinet in 2003 before Prime Minister John Howard lost the 2007 election after embracing the scheme.

In 2009, Mr Minchin was crucial in toppling Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership over his support for an ETS.

Dr Wallace said under Mr Turnbull’s successor, Tony Abbott, the Coalition “harked back to a less sophisticated, pre-Howard era of coalition government” on emissions.

Nick Minchin (right) helped topple Malcolm Turnbull over an emissions trading scheme. Picture: Mark Graham / AAP Image

Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s term was partly defined by her acrimonious rollout of a carbon tax, which Mr Abbott savaged as a “great big new tax”.

But Dr Wallace said the Coalition’s experience in rolling out the controversial goods and services tax (GST) showed an ETS would have become “an accepted, unremarked upon aspect of finance in Australia” had Mr Howard won in 2007.

Mr Anderson agreed that a 2007 win would have led to an ETS but denied the “devilishly difficult” issue would have been put to bed.

“Take Melbourne and central Queensland: Australians’ aspirations in this area are miles apart and remain so. As some people worry desperately about their jobs and industries, others want climate change action,” he said.

“I don’t think those arguments would have gone away. There would have been ongoing disputes about the need to intervene at certain times to save this industry, or those jobs, or whatever.

“Every intervention, as was pointed out at the time, would throw more weight on domestically focused industries and households.”

Climate change is already here and it's getting worse

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(AU) Australia Records Fourth-Warmest Year In 2020, Despite La NiƱa

The Guardian

Climate scientist says another top 10 year is a ‘no shit, Sherlock’ moment, as temperatures across the country were 1.15C above average

Ploughing near Gunnedah in north-west New South Wales in May. La NiƱa brought much-needed rain to parts of Australia in 2020, but it was still the fourth-warmest year on record.  Photograph: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images



Last year was the fourth warmest on record for Australia, continuing a run of record warm years over the past decade, according to provisional data released by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Across the country, temperatures in 2020 were 1.15C higher than average, putting the year behind 2005, 2013 and 2019, which remains the hottest year on record.

The data is gathered from the bureau’s ACORN-SAT dataset that takes readings from 112 weather stations across the country and goes back to 1910.

Eight of the 10 hottest years on record for Australia have occurred since 2013, the data shows. Climate scientists said the heat was driven by human-caused climate change.

Dr Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist at the University of New South Wales specialising in extreme events, said human-caused climate change had reliably delivered another top 10 year.

The hottest and driest year on record remains 2019, when mean temperatures were 1.52C above the 30-year average taken between 1961 and 1990.

Australia experienced droughts, heatwaves and devastating bushfires that carried on into 2020.

In March, abnormally high sea surface temperatures across the Great Barrier Reef caused the third mass coral bleaching event in five years.

The hottest spring on record occurred in 2020, with temperatures 2.03C above average. That ended with a November 2.47C warmer than average – the hottest November on record.

The bureau will check the latest provisional data before making a formal climate statement on 8 January.

The bureau declared a La NiƱa event in September and in late December said its influence was likely reaching its peak, with climate models suggesting a return to neutral conditions around late summer or early autumn.

La NiƱa is the cooler phase of a cycle known as Enso (El NiƱo Southern Oscillation), with the warmer phase known as El NiƱo.

Blair Trewin, senior climatologist at the bureau, told Guardian Australia La NiƱa’s influence on temperatures tended to come the year after the phenomenon was declared.

But he said: “Clearly 2020 was significantly warmer than a normal year. But it was a return to some level of normality after an exceptional 2019.”

While November was a record hot month, Trewin said it was likely that December had been relatively cool.

Rainfall and cloud cover in the north-west and central parts of the country had brought temperatures down.

Across the year, Trewin said, the underlying warming trend expected from human activity was the main driver of the higher temperatures.

La NiƱas are associated with lower ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and can bring higher rainfall for northern, eastern and central parts of the country, as well as cooler daytime temperatures.

The provisional data shows the previous hottest year to be associated with a La NiƱa was 1998, when Australian temperatures were 0.97C above average.

The most recent year that temperatures failed to get above the 1961 to 1990 average was 2011 – the middle year of a La NiƱa that spanned three years.

Perkins-Kirkpatrick said the record hot November had been a surprise because it was expected that La NiƱa would have kept temperatures lower.

She said: “2019 was in a league of its own and 2020 I think was not as extreme. The tone for the year was far more placid.

“Even with a La NiƱa end to the year, La NiƱas now are warmer than El NiƱos were without climate change. We are seeing each year come into the top 10, and each year will shift ever warmer.”

She said human activity – mainly from burning fossil fuels that were loading the atmosphere with extra carbon dioxide – was generating the extra heat.

“It is absolutely us causing this warming. It couldn’t be occurring naturally.”

In December the World Meteorological Organization released a preliminary report saying 2020 was likely to be among the three hottest years globally, using an average across five global temperature datasets.

The UN agency said the warmth of 2020 would mean the past six years were likely to be the six warmest years on record.

Bureau of Meteorology Climate and Water Outlook

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01/01/2021

Floods, Storms And Searing Heat: 2020 In Extreme Weather

The Guardian

While Covid has dominated the news, the world has also felt the effects of human-driven global heating



This year has broken a series of unwelcome weather records. Last month was the warmest November in history. This followed the hottest January, May and September. All-time temperature peaks were registered from the Antarctic to the Arctic. Since the start of the year, Australia, Siberia and California have suffered record fires. The Atlantic has generated record storms. Ice in the Laptev Sea has started forming later than ever.

The coronavirus pandemic may have dominated the news and temporarily reduced emissions. But 2020 has also demonstrated the increasingly evident impact of human-driven global heating. The six hottest years in human history have all occurred since 2014. That sequence will certainly continue for a seventh year. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) will soon know whether 2020 will take first, second or third place in the all-time ranking.

Scientists are surprised temperatures have been so high in the absence of an El NiƱo, the phenomenon that boosts warmer years such as the current record, 2016. On the contrary, the latter half of this year there was the emergence of a cooling La NiƱa, which churned up chillier-than-normal waters in the equatorial Pacific. Petteri Taalas, the secretary-general of the WMO, said that without this influence, 2020 would certainly have been the warmest year ever measured.

In climate terms, the long-term trend is more important than individual records, but it is the latter that directly affects lives and livelihoods. Unusual heat, drought, fires or storms can be caused by natural variation, local factors or industrial emissions, but scientists are increasingly able to identify that extreme weather events are more frequent and intense as greenhouse gases build up in the atmosphere.

How each month of 2020 compares with the 140-year temperature record
+1.5C Monthly temperature anomaly from 20th century average


“2020 has been another very hot year. We see very strongly the impact of what that means on the changing intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events,” said Friederike Otto, the associate director of the Environmental Change Institute at University of Oxford and co-lead of the World Weather Attribution initiative (WWA). “Every year of more emissions and increasing global mean temperature has an impact on people.”

Humankind’s fingerprint was particularly evident in the Siberian heatwave, which was made at least 600 times more probable by humans, and the Australian bushfires, which were made more than 30% more likely.

Here is how this year unfolded with global heating at 1.1C above pre-industrial levels. This toll may seem horrifying, but it is just a sample – and will be modest compared with a future world on course for more than 3C of warming.



JANUARY
Hottest January on record

Flooding in Jakarta, Indonesia, in January. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

1 January
Record floods in Indonesia kill at least 19 people, with 62,000 evacuated. The national meteorological agency reports the highest daily rainfall seen in Jakarta since records began in 1866: “This is not ordinary rain.”

4 January
Temperatures in the Sydney basin hit a new high of 48.9C, the latest in a series of records in Australia. Bushfires create a 620 miles (1,000km) wide, 21 miles high smoke cloud, three times bigger than anything seen in the world before. It spreads so far that black charcoal reaches Antarctica. Scientists describe it as “a new benchmark on the magnitude of stratospheric perturbations”.



FEBRUARY
Second-hottest February on record

Gentoo penguins at the Argentinian research base Esperanza, where the hottest temperature ever in Antarctica was reportedly recorded on 6 February. Photograph: Abbie Trayler-Smith/Greenpeace

6 February
Record mainland Antarctic heat. The Argentinian research base Esperanza on the northern tip of the Antarctic peninsula, measures a new high for the southern continent of 18.4C (65.3F).

9 February
Record Antarctic island heat. The 20.75C logged by Brazilian scientists at Seymour Island is almost a full degree higher than the previous record of 19.8C in 1982. This has still to be confirmed by the WMO.



MARCH Second-hottest March on record

Firefighters battle bushfires around the town of Nowra in New South Wales, Australia, on 31 December 2019. Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images

31 March
The Australian bushfire season comes to an end after more than six months of destruction – 33 fatalities, 3,000 homes burned, and more than 10m hectares (25m acres) razed. Wildlife deaths are estimated at more than 1bn mammals, birds and reptiles combined, and hundreds of billions of insects. From the beginning of September 2019 to 23 February 2020, bushfires have emitted 434m tonnes of carbon dioxide, equivalent to about three-quarters of the discharges of Australian industry. Studies by the WWA indicate the bushfires were made at least 30% more probable by human-driven climate change. The summer of 2019-2020 is the second-hottest ever, after the previous year’s summer.
 
Nineteen of the 20 warmest years all have occurred since 2001, with the exception of 1998
Change in global surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 average temperature
Annual mean temperature anomaly in degrees






APRIL Second-hottest April on record

A flock of sheep roam along the Siling Lake in Naqu City in south-west China’s Tibet Autonomous Region. Photograph: Xinhua/REX/Shutterstock

30 April
Asia and Europe record their warmest first four months ever. In China, Yunnan reports the worst drought in 10 years. The Yunnan drought sparks seven forest fires and leaves 1.5 million people with water shortages.



MAY
Joint-hottest May on record

Residents gather on the safe grounds with their belongings after the River Nzoia burst its banks in Busia County, Kenya. Photograph: Thomas Mukoya/Reuters


11 May
Devastating floods in Kenya and Uganda after heavy rain lead to 200 deaths, and the displacement of at least 400,000 people.

20 May
Super-cyclone Amphan is the fiercest storm to hit the Bay of Bengal this century, with winds of 118mph (190kmh). Two million people are evacuated, 129 killed. It is the costliest tropical cyclone on record, with losses in India of $14bn (£10bn).



JUNE
Third-hottest June on record

A map showing land surface temperature anomalies from 19 March to 20 June 2020. Reds depict areas that were hotter than average for the same period from 2003-2018; blues were colder than average. Photograph: Nasa Handout/EPA


20 June
Record Arctic heat. The Russian town of Verkhoyansk registers 38C (more than 100F) amid a freakishly prolonged Siberian heatwave. Siberian wildfires cover almost 1m hectares and release 59m tonnes of carbon dioxide, surpassing last year’s record. On average, temperatures in this region of the Arctic have been 5C above average in the first six months of the year. Scientists from the WWA say this was made at least 600 times more probable by human emissions.



JULY
Second-hottest July on record

Volunteers and residents work to repair a damaged dam following the landfall of Cyclone Amphan in Burigoalini. Photograph: Munir Uz Zaman/AFP/Getty Images

24 July
A third of Bangladesh is underwater after the most prolonged monsoon flooding this century, killing 550 and affecting 9.6 million people across the subcontinent.

31 July
Lowest Arctic sea ice extent for July since the beginning of satellite observations in 1979. The 7.1m km2 is 27% below the 1981-2010 average for this time of year.



AUGUST
Second-hottest August on record

Death Valley national park in California recorded 54.4C on 16 August. Photograph: John Locher/AP

13 August
Two months of record rainfall in southern China kills 219 people, prompts the evacuation of 4 million, and causes $26bn in economic losses. The Three Gorges Dam inflow hits a record 72,000 cubic meters a second. The megacity of Chongqing is put on its highest flooding alert since 1981. 

16 August
Hottest summer ever in the northern hemisphere. Death Valley records a temperature of 54.4C (129.9F), the third-highest on Earth since 1931 (and the two previous records are in question).

26 August
Record fires in California. More than 405,000 hectares burn in nine days – more than three times the average in the “normal” wildfire season. At least five people are killed, and more than 100,000 evacuated.

28 August
Record rain in Karachi of 231mm (9 in) in a single day. Pakistan has the wettest month in its history.



SEPTEMBER
World’s hottest September on record

A dead crocodile in the town of Porto Jofre in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, after fires devastate the region. Photograph: Carlos Ezequiel Vannoni/EPA




4-12 September
Record flooding in the Sahel region of Africa affects 500,000 people. The White and Blue Nile burst banks. The average level of the Blue Nile reaches 17.43 metres (57.19ft), the highest since Sudan started measuring in 1912. Senegal records 124mm of rain over a seven-hour downpour – the amount that would usually be expected across the entire rainy season from July to September. Sudan imposes a three-month state of emergency on 4 September, after rains destroys about 100,000 houses and kills more than 100 people. In Nigeria, flooding damages 500,000 hectares of farm produce, amounting to about 5bn naira (£9.8m), according to NKC African Economics.

12 September
Record fires, blazing since August, consume 28% of the Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetlands, spanning Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay. Fires also consume 2.2m hectares of the Amazon.



OCTOBER
World’s fourth hottest October on record

The October 2020 sea ice concentration in the Arctic. The yellow line shows 1981- 2010 median. Photograph: NASA

3 October
The UK has its wettest day on record after Storm Alex, with enough rain to fill Loch Ness.

4 October
Wildfires in California spread over 1.6m hectares , a new annual record for the most hectares burned in a single year.

31 October
The lowest Arctic sea ice extent for the month of October, after the latest ever start to ice formation in Laptev Sea.



NOVEMBER
World’s second-hottest November on record

Residents walk across debris floating in floodwaters in a submerged village, as Typhoon Vamco hits in Rodriguez, Rizal province, Philippines. Photograph: Ezra Acayan/Getty Images


2 November
Philippines hit by Typhoon Goni, one of the strongest storms in history with gusts of up to 192 mph. At least 20 people are killed and almost a million evacuated.

17 November
Iota, the strongest hurricane on record to strike Nicaragua, triggers catastrophic flooding and landslides. At least 40 people die across Central America and Colombia. It follows Hurricane Eta – the first time on record the Atlantic has had two major hurricanes in November.

22 November
Somalia is devastated by Cyclone Gati, the strongest storm to hit this part of world since records in this region began five years ago. Rainfall in two days equals the two-year average. At least eight dead.



DECEMBER
Residents inspect an area filled with plastic rubbish after the passing of Hurricane Iota, in Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. Photograph: Oswaldo Rivas/Reuters


1 December
Record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season ends. Thirty storms grew strong enough to earn a name, beating 2005’s record of 28 storms. The WMO ran out of storm names by September, turning to the Greek alphabet for labels for the first time since 2005.

4 December
The bushfire season starts early in Australia with devastating wildfires on Fraser Island as experts worry that the months ahead could be disastrous.

12 December
The World Meteorological Agency says 2020 is certain to be among the three hottest years ever recorded. Although global emissions are likely to have fallen by 7% this year, carbon concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise. The UN reports global heating in on course to reach 3.2C by the end of the century because governments are not taking sufficient climate action to keep temperatures to the Paris Agreement target of 1.5C to 2C. All eyes are now on the UN climate conference (Cop26) in Glasgow next year.

30 December
Almost one year on from the first reported case of Covid-19 in Wuhan, China, the worldwide death toll of the pandemic has passed 1.6 million people and is estimated to cause $28tn of losses. Scientists have warned such outbreaks will become more common as the world’s natural life support systems, including the climate, break down as a result of rising temperatures, deforestation and the illegal wildlife trade. The UN secretary general says humanity has been waging war on nature, and that making peace will be the defining task of the 21st century

Atmospheric CO2 continues to rise despite a drop in emissions this year
 

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(AU) Australia Is The Last Western Hold Out On The Climate Crisis. But Some States And Businesses Are Calling For Change

CNNHelen Regan

Thousands protest government's climate policies in Australia (02:28)

Deep in northeast Australia's outback, underneath grassy eucalypt woodlands and vast grazing lands scattered with cattle stations, lies one of the world's largest known untapped coal reserves.

Queensland's Galilee Basin, an area roughly the size of Britain, is set to produce its first coal in 2021, to be moved by rail 300 kilometers to the coast, where it will be loaded onto cargo ships that will sail through the Great Barrier Reef to ship it to Asia.

The controversial Carmichael mine has become a symbol of the environmental split that has emerged in 21st century Australia.

As the country experiences devastating bush fires and record temperatures, public opinion is in favor of greater action on the climate crisis, protecting the country's precious natural heritage, and investments in renewable energy, surveys show, but Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his government remain entwined with the powerful fossil fuel industry.

That's made Australia an outlier among the big global economies. Earlier this year, US President-elect Joe Biden pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2050. China, South Korea, and Japan all made similar pledges this year, as did the UK and the EU in 2019.

The beginning of the Carmichael River, which will be cut by the void of the Carmichael Coal mine.

Coal awaiting export at the Abbot Point coal terminal, in Queensland, Australia, July 5, 2017. Australia has approved the Adani Group's Carmichael coal mine project, which would export through this port.

Australia has made no such pledge. It hasn't yet updated its Paris Agreement targets -- already considered weak -- of cutting planet-heating emissions by 26% to 28% from 2005 levels by mid-century.

And Australia's emissions per capita are nearly three times higher than the G20 average. Recently, Morrison said Australia was aiming to reach zero emissions as soon as possible, but wouldn't give a timeline. 

But outside Canberra it's a different picture.

Every Australian state and territory has pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

In the private sector, businesses are investing in innovative renewable mega-energy projects, taking advantage of Australia's world-class wind and solar resources.

One project is set to power a large chunk of Singapore's electricity needs via an undersea cable, and another aims to build a huge renewable power station that could be a game changer for Australia in becoming a leading exporter of green hydrogen.

With states and industry forging ahead on climate solutions, the country's most impactful climate action might not come from the man leading the nation.

Australian states forging ahead

In November, New South Wales announced a plan to support 12 gigawatts of wind and solar and 2 gigawatts of energy storage through the construction of renewable energy zone to replace its aging coal plants.

The state government estimates the plan would drive $32 billion in investment to the region, lower electricity prices and create more than 6,000 more jobs in the next 10 years. These zones are like traditional power stations but transmit, store and generate electricity from renewable sources like solar, wind and pumped hydro.

Sheep graze in front of wind turbines on Lake George on September 1, 2020, on the outskirts of Canberra, Australia.

Speaking to Sky News, NSW Minister for Energy and Environment Matt Kean said: "The reality is 70% of our two-way trade are now with countries committed to achieve net zero emissions," adding that the new projects will "set us up to not only be an energy superpower but an economic superpower."

Neighboring Queensland is investing $145 million to establish its own renewable energy zones and Victoria, which has had success in installing thousands of rooftop solar panels on homes and businesses across the state, is supporting a further 600 megawatts of renewable energy. The state government claims this would be enough to power every hospital and school in the state.

"There's a push also to put batteries on both of those pieces of public infrastructure so that they would essentially be able to sell their electricity to the grid too, which would offset some of their costs -- providing more opportunity for them to spend their resources on vital, services like education and health," said Amanda McKenzie, CEO of the Climate Council.

Victoria will also be home to the world's largest battery to ensure grid security. The Tesla battery will generate 300 megawatts and will help the state meet its renewable energy targets of 50% by 2030.

"There's a growing enthusiasm for the economic opportunities associated with renewable energy," said McKenzie. "I think that states are starting to see the scale of economic opportunity that can come with the transition."

Solar panels array, Ceres Environmental Park, Brunswick East, Melbourne, Australia

Exporting Australian sunshine

The private sector in Australia is also seeking to capitalize on the abundance of sunshine and wind in the country. Some of these projects are breathtaking in their scale.

In the red desert of the remote Northern Territory, two of Australia's richest people are backing a $20 billion plan to build the world's biggest solar farm and battery storage facility, which will span 12,000 hectares (29,600 acres) and, they claim, be visible from space.

When completed, it will export enough electricity through a 3,711 kilometer-long undersea cable to power a fifth of Singapore's energy needs. The Sun Cable initiative has been given major project status -- meaning the government has formally recognized the significance of the project to the Australian economy.

Sun Cable aims to provide renewable energy to the Northern Territory by the end of 2027, with solar exports worth around $2 billion every year. It eventually aims to link up to Indonesia, too.

"If it comes off, it would be really a ground-breaking system," said Bill Hare, CEO of climate science and policy institute Climate Analytics.


In Western Australia's Pilbara region, the sun shines hot and strong winds blow throughout the day and night: ideal conditions to build the world's biggest power station.

The Asian Renewable Energy Hub will cover a 6,600 square kilometer area space -- about six-and-a-half times the size of Hong Kong. Funded through a consortium of backers, the $36 billion project is expected to have a capacity of 26 gigawatts -- the equivalent of 40% of Australia's electricity consumption.

A vast swathe of solar panels will soak up the sun's rays and, together with 1,743 wind turbines, generate round the clock renewable energy. That will mostly power electrolyzers that split water into green hydrogen. The hub said it plans to turn this hydrogen into ammonia so, as a liquid, it's easier to transport.

Hydrogen is already used in a vast array of industries, from rocket fuel, to fertilizing crops, to making plastics and pharmaceuticals. But extracting hydrogen is traditionally done with fossil fuels, causing planet-warming emissions.

Green hydrogen is manufactured with renewable energy -- such as solar or wind -- so it would eliminate those polluting emissions. While the technology has been around for decades, rapidly falling prices of solar and wind means the electrolyzing process is now financially viable, though still expensive.

Alex Tancock, founder and managing director of Intercontinental Energy, a partner in the hub, said the project "has shown the world what is possible."

"It has leapfrogged this whole discussion of scaling up pilot stage projects. And it has shown that oil and gas-scale projects are possible that are green," he said.

Green hydrogen is gaining traction among governments and businesses pledging to slash their emissions completely by 2050, and has the potential to clean up energy-intensive industries such as transport and construction that are more difficult to electrify.


Hare notes that currently 75% to 80% of Australia's fossil fuels go to Japan, Korea and China. "We know each of those countries is looking at hydrogen for the future," Hare said. "As an Australian, we just cannot afford to wait to develop these markets."

McKenzie of the Climate Council adds that "a lot of Australian businesses now, are committing to 100% renewable energy," and calling on the federal government to do more.

Coal country and a tense transition

Recently, the Australian government has made some good noises on green energy.

In September, the government announced a technology-focused roadmap and a $1.4 billion energy investment package, which including driving down the price of hydrogen to under $2 a kilogram, battery storage and carbon capture and storage. It planned to invest $18 billion in low emissions tech over the next ten years.

"Australia has a plan to put the technology in place to reduce emissions and ensure we achieve the Kyoto commitments, as we already have demonstrated, and, importantly, the Paris commitments before us. What matters is what you get done, and Australia is getting it done on emissions reduction," Morrison told parliament on December 10.

But there are still parts of Australia's energy policy that trouble climate experts.

For example, within the series of recent announcements was support for a gas-fired economic recovery from the pandemic fallout, which included unlocking five gas basins. "Gas is a critical enabler of Australia's economy," Morrison said.

But investing in natural gas -- a fossil fuel -- is not in line with the government's own commitments to reduce emissions.

A recent report from the Grattan Institute, found that natural gas use is in decline, prices -- especially on the east coast -- will become expensive, and its benefits to manufacturing were "overstated."

"If the government tries to swim against this tide by directly intervening in the market, taxpayers will pay the price via big subsidies," the report said.

CNN has reached out to the Prime Minister's office for comment.

A coal mine in Bulga, the Hunter Valley north of Sydney on November 18, 2015.

Australia has another abundant natural resource: coal.

The country is the world's second largest exporter of coal and in states such as Queensland and New South Wales mining is a big industry -- and employer -- in rural communities.

Climate scientists say it will be necessary to phase out coal power in developed countries by 2030, and in the rest of the world by 2040, if the world wants to avoid catastrophic climate change.

But according to the Climate Action Tracker, Australia's coal production is set to increase by 4% from 2020 to 2030.

Despite that in Queensland's Galilee basin, mining giant Adani's new Carmichael thermal coal mine would produce 10 million metric tons of coal every year over its 60 year lifetime. Much of that will be supplied to India, which still depends on coal to meet most of its energy needs.

The project, which has been in the works for several years, was given the green light by the government last year, in part, to create jobs in a high unemployment area.

But it has enraged environmental campaigners, who say it will be a "death sentence" for the Great Barrier Reef because of the high levels of carbon pollution that coal produces. Large parts of the reef have already been destroyed by rising ocean temperatures linked to global warming.

Climate activists and scientists also say the mine and rail link could open the way for five other mines in the basin to go ahead, and coal produced from this mine could directly impact global emissions.

Adani, which renamed its Australian operations last month to Bravus Mining and Resources, said the mine and rail project has already created 2,000 jobs.

When asked for comment about the emissions it will produce, the company directed CNN to a statement disputing that emissions from its coal will have an impact on the reef.

"The process of mining 10 million tonnes of coal per annum at the Carmichael mine will produce 240,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions," the company said in a statement.

"Adani's Carmichael mine is a much smaller mine than many others in Queensland and when the coal is used overseas the amount of carbon dioxide that will be produced will represent less than 0.04% of Australia's emissions and less than 0.0006% of global emissions, which is not enough to have an impact on the Great Barrier Reef."

At the heart of Australia's potential green energy transition is this tension between the nation's history as a fossil fuel powerhouse and its obligation reduce emissions to stop catastrophic climate change.

Pressure to commit to stronger climate action is increasing from the states, from business, from communities, Pacific Island nations, and western countries. And there does appear to be some softening.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks during a press conference on October 16, 2020, in Sydney, Australia.

Morrison, who was left out of a major virtual climate summit this month hosted by the UN, UK and France because of his lack of climate ambition, has said he won't use controversial Kyoto carryover credits to achieve Australia's emissions targets.

Carryover credits are a carbon accounting measure and Australia had argued that because it did well in reducing emissions in the Kyoto period (2008 to 2012), it can offset that amount to meet its Paris Agreement commitments. No country has taken these seriously, however.

While states and business are making strong moves, if Australia is going to become a leader in the renewable revolution, experts say the federal government has to step up, too.

For the electrification of transport -- especially heavy trucks or buses -- or to make efficiency improvements in industry, experts say federal incentives are needed, as well as a carbon tax.

Hare said that while some energy-intensive industries -- such as mining -- are moving to renewables for some of their operations, "it isn't at scale yet, and it won't happen at scale until governments all get on the game with the right type sort incentives."

With a strong renewable energy and emissions target, the federal government could capitalize on the economic opportunities that Australia's natural advantages offer -- and protect the country from an onslaught of climate damage such as worsening bushfires and droughts, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather.

The government "needs to accelerate and coordinate all the efforts that are going on, to make sure that it can be ratcheted up very quickly, so that Australia's very high emissions can plummet, if we're going to protect our national interest," said McKenzie.

"If we can demonstrate how to make transition happen quickly in a coal-dependent economy," she said. "Australia could be the testing ground and a model in this new world." 

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