Sinking Land And Rising Seas: The Dual Crises Facing Coastal Communities

National Geographic - Madeleine Stone

A double whammy of climate change and human-caused land subsidence means global coastal residents are experiencing extreme sea-level rise.

The Jakarta Bay seawall protects shops, homes, and mosques from being inundated by the sea. Due to rising sea levels and the overextraction of groundwater, the capital is considered one of the world's fastest sinking cities. Photograph by Ian Teh, Panos Pictures/Redux

The world’s coastal residents are experiencing more extreme sea level rise than is widely appreciated because they are concentrated in places where the land is sinking rapidly, a study published Monday in Nature Climate Change has found.

Sea levels are rising globally as Earth’s ice sheets melt and as warming sea water expands. But on a local scale, subsidence, or sinking land, can dramatically aggravate the problem. Cities like New Orleans and Jakarta are experiencing very rapid sea level rise relative to their coastlines—the land itself is sinking as the water is rising.

Now, an international team of researchers has demonstrated that this one-two punch is more than a local problem. Sinking land makes coastal residents around the world disproportionately vulnerable to rising seas: The typical coastal inhabitant is experiencing a sea level rise rate three to four times higher than the global average.

“We are talking about not a forecast; we are saying this is happening today,” says lead study author Robert Nicholls of the University of East Anglia’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. “And it’s quite significant.”

The silver lining, such as it is: Where coastal land is sinking, it’s in large part because of human activities, like groundwater withdrawal, that coastal cities can do something about.

From a local to a global problem

Some of the factors contributing to the fall (or rise) of Earth’s coastlines are beyond human control. Parts of Earth are still adjusting to the disappearance of glaciers that blanketed it during the last ice age, springing up in some places and sinking in others.

In coastal river deltas, land subsides slowly as freshly deposited sediments are compacted.

But in addition to those natural processes, human activities, including groundwater withdrawal, oil and gas extraction, sand mining, and the construction of flood barriers around rivers, can all cause the ground to sink.

Preventing river flooding, a good thing in itself, also stops rivers from spreading sediments that slowly rebuild the land.

In places where people are concentrated, these activities, particularly groundwater removal, often cause the land to subside much more quickly than it would via geological processes alone: Over the 20th century, parts of Jakarta, New Orleans, Shanghai, and Bangkok sank between six and 10 feet.

The problem of subsidence and its effects on sea level rise—where the land sinks, the oceans rise relative to the shore by the same amount—is well documented for certain cities. But prior to the new study the effect hadn’t been assessed at a global scale.

“We wanted to actually understand what is the human experience of relative sea level rise” by taking subsidence into account worldwide, Nicholls says.            

To estimate the rate of sea level rise experienced along thousands of sections of coastline worldwide, Nicholls and his colleagues compiled data from four key sources: satellite observations of climate change-fueled sea level rise; model estimates of how land is adjusting from the last ice age; data on natural subsidence in 117 river deltas, and estimates of human-caused subsidence in 138 large coastal cities.

The findings were dramatic. Satellite measurements put climate-driven sea level rise at about 3.3 millimeters per year (around an eighth of an inch).

Nicholls and his colleagues found that on average, Earth’s coastlines actually experienced a slightly lower relative lift of about 2.6 millimeters per year (0.1 inch) between 1993 and 2015, because so much land is still rising due to glacial rebound.

But that’s not where the majority of people live: Over the same time period, Earth’s coastal inhabitants saw the seas rise by an average of 7.8 to 9 millimeters annually (about half an inch).

This, the authors say, reflects the fact that coastal inhabitants are concentrated in rapidly subsiding areas, including sinking deltas and sinking coastal cities.

The problem is especially acute in southeast Asia, where in 2015, 185 million people lived in coastal floodplains—around 75 percent of the global total. Such people live with the threats of both river flooding and sea level rise.

If subsidence continues at current rates, far more coastal residents could be at risk in the next few decades.

Projected population growth alone will cause the number of people living in coastal floodplains to rise from 249 million in 2015 to 280 million in 2050, the study found.

Climate change-driven sea level rise will place another 25 to 30 million people in that flood zone; ongoing city subsidence adds 25 to 40 million more people on top of that.

University of Miami sea level rise expert Harold Wanless warns that it might not be accurate to suppose that today’s high rates of city subsidence will continue into the middle of the century.

“Shanghai, for example, has been trying for some time to limit theirs,” Wanless writes in an email. “And rising sea level over the next 30 years will force abandonment of portions of these low-lying cities.”

A key climate adaptation strategy

Indeed, a key implication of the study is that coastal cities around the world should be taking immediate steps to limit subsidence, before the combined effects of sinking land and rising seas force residents to retreat inland.

For many cities, Nicholls says that the “fundamental problem” is groundwater extraction, which causes the sediments in aquifers to compact together and the land above to sink.

That was the situation in Shanghai, where land subsidence was first recognized as a problem in the 1920s and has been mitigated greatly in recent decades through better groundwater management.

The same is true for Tokyo, where parts of the city sank more than 13 feet during the 20th century due to rapid groundwater depletion. Today, the city has all but eliminated subsidence through strict water-pumping regulations.

In other places, like coastal Louisiana’s fast-sinking Mississippi River Delta, undoing some of the damage caused by historic flood control measures will be key to reducing subsidence. There, a multibillion-dollar plan is underway to help restore the natural cycle of wetland growth by punching holes in the river’s 20th-century levee system. That would allow sediments to spill over into nearby marshes once again.

“Every locality needs to understand its situation,” says University of Florida oceanographer and coastal engineer Arnoldo Valle-Levinson, who wasn’t involved with the new paper. Valle-Levinson says the study offers “a nice way of reminding coastal municipalities that it’s not only climate-induced sea level rise that they should pay attention to.” Ultimately, he says, adaptation strategies will have to be tailored to local challenges.

Nicholls agrees that understanding and addressing the local causes of subsidence is essential. But he hopes that by framing sinking coastal real estate as a global issue, the new paper will encourage knowledge sharing between regions that have developed successful mitigation strategies, as well as more consideration of the issue by climate policymakers.

“You can think of subsidence mitigation just like climate mitigation,” Nicholls says. “It’s not ‘do one or the other’—it’s ‘do both.’”

Links

• A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure
• (NZ) When Climate Change And Other Emergencies Threaten Where We Live, How Will We Manage Our Retreat?
• Sea Level Data Confirms Climate Modeling Projections Were Right
• Melting Glaciers, Rising Seas: Approaching Climate Tipping Points
• Study Shows Sea Level Will Rise More And Faster Than Previously Believed
• (AU) Victoria Gets Trillion-Dollar Bad News: Sea Level Rises Will Swamp Parts Of The State
• (AU) Rising Sea Levels Visibly Transforming Parts Of Coastal Region Around Kakadu National Park
• Sea-Level Rise From Climate Change Could Exceed The High-End Projections, Scientists Warn
• New way to measure Antarctic snowfall helps predict the ice sheet’s survival
• Planting trees helps fight climate change—but we need billions more seedlings
• Rivers and lakes are the most degraded ecosystems in the world. Can we save them?

(AU) Australian Exporters Could Face Millions Of Dollars In European Tariffs As EU Seeks To Punish Polluters

ABC News - Linton Besser

A session of the European Parliament in Brussels voted that certain exporters will face millions of dollars in new tariffs over their climate policies. (Reuters: Francisco Seco)
  

Key Points The European Parliament has voted to introduce a carbon levy on imports into the EU from countries with weaker emission rules Australian importers could face a carbon levy of up to $77 per tonne under the new scheme The EU and Australia are currently negotiating a multibillion-dollar free trade agreement

LONDON - Australian exporters to Europe are likely to face millions of dollars in new tariffs after the European Parliament voted overnight to move forward with a carbon levy on products from countries lacking serious pollution reduction programs.

The vote came after a top parliamentary committee noted concerns about "the lack of cooperation by some of the EU’s trade partners … to reach the objectives of the Paris Agreement".

Canberra's diplomatic and trade representatives are in the midst of negotiating a multibillion-dollar free trade deal with the European Union.

But MEPs in Brussels are warning they will not ratify any such deal with Australia until it does more to reduce its emissions.

"Australia has to understand that we are really serious," Pascal Canfin, chairman of the parliament's environment committee, told the ABC.

A member of Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party, Mr Canfin said compliance with the Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation was non-negotiable.

"We will not ratify a trade deal if there is no concrete additional climate action from Australia," he said.

Kathleen van Brempt, a key parliamentary trade coordinator, said an FTA was contingent on "a clear vision [from] Australia by when and how they will become climate neutral and by when and how they will phase out of coal".

Until Australia establishes a new scheme to lower emissions, its exporters to Europe face the prospect of paying additional tariffs under the new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is expected to come into force in 2023.

The mechanism is designed to apply tariffs on imports equivalent to the fees paid under the EU's Emissions Trading System by local businesses producing the same product.

"It makes sure that we have … a level playing field between the domestic production and production of products that are coming into Europe," Ms van Brempt said.

In 2016, Australia exported goods to Europe worth more than $20 billion.

The European Parliament says it will not ratify a free trade agreement with Australia until it does more to reduce emissions. (ABC Gippsland: Jarrod Whittaker)

Europe's ETS was introduced in 2005, and now Brussels is rolling out a suite of new climate reforms aimed at cutting Europe's CO2 emissions by 55 per cent by the end of the decade.

On Wednesday afternoon in Brussels, the parliament adopted a resolution outlining its expectations for the CBAM, the details of which are scheduled to be set out by the European Commission in June.

Once the Commission unveils the detailed policy, further parliamentary ratification is required to make the carbon tariffs into law.

The program is expected to begin by targeting a narrow range of industrial sectors including steel, cement and chemicals.

'Australia today is a free rider'

In the past decade, Australia has exported to Europe more than 980,000 tonnes of steel.

At the price of €50 ($77) per tonne of carbon — Brussels' own forecast — exports of the same volume would attract tariffs equivalent to $77 million.

It's expected that Australian steel exports will be hit with tariffs, as well as cement and chemicals. (Supplied: Nathan River Resources)

Ms van Brempt said the carbon tariffs were vital to protect European industry from so-called "free-riders".

"In Europe we consider Australia … is not really very loyal in implementing the Paris agreement," she told the ABC.

"Australia today is a free rider … it continues to make their products based on fossil fuels."

But Europe's ETS has been far from a raging success.

Thanks to extensive lobbying, its carbon price has stayed relatively low, and millions of dollars' worth of pollution permits have been granted for free to heavy industries to cushion them from outside competition.

"The European carbon market has not played its full potential because of the free allowances," Mr Canfin said.

He pledged the program was heading in the right direction, that the carbon price would climb beyond €50 ($77) a tonne and that "we are going to reduce the free allowances".

The new border tariffs would effectively replace them, he said: "Of course we are not going to provide our industries both CBAM … plus free allowances".

"The phasing in of CBAM will go hand in hand with the phasing out of the free allowances."

On Tuesday that pledge looked shaky, after an amendment to the CBAM proposal, which sought to eliminate all free carbon emission allowances, was voted down.

Charles de Lusignan, from the European Steel Association, said the industry only supported the introduction of carbon tariffs "as a supplementary mechanism", and expected that industry would continue to be able to claim pollution allowances to defray other expenses, such as the high costs ofcarbon abatement technology.

An EU employers group, BusinessEurope, said free allowances must continue until CBAM had "proven its effectiveness".

Links

• European Parliament: Carbon levy on EU imports needed to raise global climate ambition
• Australia out of the ‘climate club’ as EU advances carbon border tax
• Big-emitting Australian businesses could soon face costly carbon levy in Europe
• Carbon border levy should be in place no later than 2023, EU lawmakers say
• Australian exporters could face $140 per tonne carbon tax, thanks to weak Morrison targets
• Why the EU’s proposed carbon border levy is an important test for global action on climate change

(AU) Certain Suburbs Being Left To Swelter Under Higher Temperatures Due To Lack Of Vegetation

NEWS.com.au - Charis Chang

Temperatures are expected to hit terrifying highs in the suburbs – but the oppressive heat could be mitigated with a simple solution.

A heatwave in Australia in November 2020. Scientists are predicting the temperature will continue to rise due to global warming. Source: Supplied

Certain suburbs in Australia’s major cities are being left to swelter under higher temperatures – which could be reduced through one simple measure.

Monash University researchers have released a report today commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation that says Australia’s major cities need more trees and vegetation to reduce serious heatwave impacts.

The report notes there can be a “heat gap” or large differences in temperature between suburbs due to the amount of vegetation and built infrastructure.

For example, temperatures in the Sydney council area of Blacktown, which only has 22 per cent vegetation cover, are 5.8C higher due to extra heat from its built infrastructure.


A new report from CSIRO and BOM has warned us about the worsening effects of climate change.

This compares to Mosman, which has a moderately high level of vegetation (43 per cent) and which only experiences an extra 2.2C in temperature from its built environment.

The report says the variation between different areas of Sydney, is much higher than in Melbourne and Brisbane.

Experts say temperatures are forecast to soar during summer thanks to climate change, with hot summer days in Melbourne and Brisbane expected to regularly top 40C by 2060-2080, and up to 50C in Sydney.

Cities in particular will feel the brunt of increasing heatwaves thanks to a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect (UHI).

The microclimate around cities is generally warmer due to a number of factors, including that high rise buildings and narrow streets create canyons where heat gets trapped.

Materials such as concrete, asphalt, steel and glass also retain more heat than natural materials, and a lower proportion of tree cover or vegetation means there is less moisture to cool the air or to create shade.

Blacktown experiences higher temperatures thanks to a lack of vegetation. Source: News Corp Australia

Mosman is a lot leafier, which helps keep temperatures down. Source: News Corp Australia

Areas where there are more people also tend to be warmer because of heat waste from the increased use of things like cars, factories and cooling systems.

“When temperatures go up, we strive to make ourselves more comfortable and rely on more airconditioning and refrigeration. This increases electricity usage and creates more waste heat, further contributing to the UHI effect,” the report states.

There are several ways to reduce the UHI effect including the use of reflective or super-cool materials, devices for solar control and shading, natural temperature sinks, or cooling systems that involve evaporation and transpiration.

However, one simple and cost-effective method is increasing the amount of trees, shrubs and even grass. These plants will help absorb sunlight, release water vapour that evaporates and cools the air, and provide shading.

This could be achieved through creating more open space, parks, wetlands, vertical greenery on building facades and vegetated roofs.

Sadly, the amount of vegetation has declined in all major cities except for Hobart, which is the only capital city to have more tree cover in 2020 than it did in 2013.

In Sydney, there was a 0.8 per cent decline in vegetation cover during this period, and while this may seem small, it is equal to 12.2sq km – or about 570 AFL football fields.

Sydney may be considered one of the most beautiful cities in the world but it’s slowly losing its vegetation. Source: Supplied

“Heatwaves kill more Australians than any other natural disaster and these will get more severe as our climate continues to change,” report co-author Dr Lucy Richardson of Monash University said.

“Our research shows increasing urban vegetation will become essential for our three largest cities – Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane – to reduce serious heatwave impacts by 2060-2080.

“Natural infrastructure takes time to establish to its maximum effectiveness, so acting early is critical for meeting future needs.”

ACF campaigns director Paul Sinclair said Australia’s national environmental law had not been effective in preventing the destruction of native trees.

“In the first 17 years that Australia had a national environment law, 20,212 hectares of urban threatened species habitat – that’s 11,400 MCG footy grounds – was destroyed,” he said.

“Decisions made by Australian governments in the coming months will either lock in permanent and escalating damage to the ecological systems that sustain human health and livelihoods, or they will promote a healthier, fairer and greener world.”

The Monash research is the first study to examine the cumulative effects of future climate change and the UHI effect at local government level across Australia’s three largest cities.

SYDNEY

It may come as a surprise but this city, considered one of the most beautiful in the world, is one of Australia’s least green capitals.

It has an overall 34 per cent vegetation cover and experiences an extra 5.5C in hotter temperatures due to heat trapped by the city’s infrastructure.

The extra heat in some areas can reach as high as 13.5C.

Increasing tree cover will provide shade and cool temperatures. Source: News Corp Australia

Improving the city’s vegetation cover is especially important as the hottest summer days are expected to increase to between 41.7C and 50C for 2060-2080 under a business-as-usual scenario.

In comparison, the summer’s hottest days over the last 50 years at Sydney’s Observatory Hill station averaged 39.1°C.

Sydney can expect around 56 of its average days to reach over 30C each year by 2060–2080, with around 15 average days over 35C and two average days over 40C.

Mosman and North Sydney are expected to have the highest predicted temperature peak, at 50C. The lowest peak was expected to be Burwood at 47.9C.

However, when looking at average temperatures, Blacktown was expected to have the highest mean summer temperature of 31.3C.

BRISBANE

Brisbane is one of Australia’s greenest capital cities with 54 per cent overall vegetation cover.

On average the city experiences an extra 1C temperature due to heat being trapped by the city’s built infrastructure.

However, this can be as high as 6.1C extra in some areas.

Predictions suggest the city’s hottest summer days will sit between 38.3C and 41.8C by 2060–2080, under a business-as-usual scenario.

In comparison, summer’s hottest days over the last 50 years at the Brisbane Airport station averaged 35°C.

There will be around 137 average days over 30C each year and around 14 average days over 35C each year.

This is considerably hotter than the long-term average of 30C and the average for the 2019–2020 summer, which was 30.9C.

Brisbane is one of the greenest cities in Australia. Picture: Richard Walker Source: News Corp Australia

MELBOURNE

Melbourne is one of Australia’s least green capital cities with 23 per cent overall vegetation cover.

The city’s temperatures are typically 5.5C higher due to heat being trapped by the city’s built infrastructure.

This can climb to as much as 13.5C of extra heat in some areas.

Predictions suggest the city’s hottest summer days will sit between 42.9C and 49.4C by 2060-2080, under a business-as-usual scenario.

Casey would have the coolest maximum hottest summer days at 47C, compared with the highest hottest days predicted for Maribyrnong and Brimbank, both reaching 49.4C.

At the moment, summer’s hottest days over the last 50 years at Melbourne’s Olympic Park station averaged 41.9C.

Melbourne should expect around 48 average days to reach over 30C each year, with 17 average days over 35C and three average days over 40C.

Melbourne is one of the least green cities in Australia. Picture: Tony Gough Source: News Corp Australia

Links

• Australians face a hotter future if our cities don't do more to cool 'heat islands', report finds
• Natural solutions needed for our overheating cities
• Bureau of Meteorology: Climate Data Online
• Planning Institute of Australia: Planning in a Changing Climate (pdf)
• Australian Conservation Foundation: Solutions for a hot city
• CSIRO: Track to the future: climate change and your city
• United Nations: Urban Climate Action Is Crucial to Bend the Emissions Curve
• Cities could get more than 4°C hotter by 2100. To keep cool in Australia, we urgently need a national planning policy
• Troubling detail in Aussie weather data
• The climate detail worrying scientists
• What 2C of warming actually looks like

(AU) The Single Most Important Resource Underpinning Australia’s Food Security Is Under Threat

Sydney Morning Herald - Angus Houston

Author Sir Angus Houston is the chair of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority.

I’ve spent the past six months out in the Murray-Darling Basin, listening and learning. During my latest trip – to central and northern NSW – I was struck deeply by the great uncertainty many people are feeling about the future after experiencing the hottest and driest three years on record. 

At the iconic internationally recognised Macquarie Marshes I saw firsthand how dryland vegetation has encroached upon the marshes – a small but significant sign (no doubt replicated in other parts of Australia) that illustrates that our drier and hotter climate is quickly changing our landscapes, communities and industries.

The Darling River at Louth, in far west NSW, in February last year. Credit: Jenny Evans/Getty Images

While the grass may be a little greener now, it temporarily masks a growing genuine concern about the future. What will the next season hold, and the one after that? What does that mean for the younger generations the future of these communities which people quite rightly feel a responsibility to protect. I have seen firsthand how climate and water shortages are a significant threat to the security of our communities.

Climate change acts as a threat-multiplier. More frequent droughts and natural disasters increase pressure on resources, communities, institutions and infrastructure. It can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities within societies, and have a destabilising effect, worsening the factors that generate conflict and social unrest.

Even stable and wealthy nations like ours are exposed. Only 18 months ago, communities in the northern basin were carting drinking water because dams had run dry.


US President Joe Biden signed a raft of executive actions to combat climate change, including pausing new oil and gas leases on federal land and cutting fossil fuel subsidies, as he pursues clean energy policies he billed as a boon to the economy.

Our prosperity and way of life are dependent on our nation’s water and food security. And the Murray-Darling Basin is the single most important resource underpinning this security.

Last year – through the 2020 Basin Plan Evaluation – we shared a range of future climate scenarios the basin could face developed by the CSIRO. The most probable scenario is that average annual streamflow in 30 years’ time will be up to 30 per cent less than what we see today, due to a 10 per cent reduction in rainfall. We released these climate scenarios alongside a commitment to support the basin in adapting to climate challenges and increasing resilience.

Adapting to a challenge of the magnitude of climate change can seem overwhelming, paralysing. But I believe that as a nation, Australia is strong enough and smart enough to rise to the challenge. Many are already doing just that.

---

Australia faces ‘constellation’ of diplomatic pressures over climate.

There are plenty of conversations happening at kitchen tables and board room tables about this challenge and what communities and industries are already doing to adapt.

Whether you call it climate change, or just changing weather patterns, it’s clear that now more than ever we all have to lean in and learn – from other communities, industry groups or governments – so together we’re tackling this complex challenge of water scarcity and hotter temperatures from all angles.

The good news is that we have numerous leaders, industries and groups charging ahead with their adaptation efforts. They are rightly proud of the work they’re doing and the progress they’re making to adapt to a drier and hotter climate.

We are bringing together these leaders from agriculture, natural resource management, tourism, finance, support services and government as part of our Basin Climate Resilience Summit, which starts on Thursday in Canberra.

The MDBA does not have all the answers. Our role is to take a basin-wide view and do what we can to supercharge the climate adaptation efforts already underway. The summit is the beginning of this journey and poses three questions. What are the key focus areas we need to consider for the basin? What impediments or lessons do we need to navigate? What are the opportunities to collaborate, and if so how?

It’s hoped the summit will contribute to the collective preparedness of all in the basin. We will ensure all interested parties are kept informed as we continue to work together so our basin communities can survive and thrive sustainably.

Links

• (AU) Stop Fighting And Start Adapting To Climate Change, Basin Authority Says
• (AU) We Looked At 35 Years Of Rainfall And Learnt How Droughts Start In The Murray-Darling Basin
• (AU) The Mystery Of The Murray-Darling’s Vanishing Flows
• (AU) New FOI Ruling Orders Disclosure Of CSIRO Internal Documents On Its Response To Murray-Darling Criticisms
• (AU) Australia’s Water Is Vanishing
• (AU) 6,000 Years Of Climate History: An Ancient Lake In The Murray-Darling Has Yielded Its Secrets
• (AU) No Water, No Leadership: New Murray Darling Basin Report Reveals States’ Climate Gamble
• Murray-Darling Basin Inspector-General To Oversee Water Efficiency, Compliance And Allegations Of Theft
• Barwon-Darling River Faces 'Collapse' From Government Mistakes: Report
• How Taxpayers Are Funding A Huge Corporate Expansion In The Murray-Darling Basin
• Murray-Darling Report Shows Public Authorities Must Take Climate Change Risk Seriously

(AU) Morrison Locks In ‘Lower Emissions’ Energy

 AFR - Jacob Greber

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has explicitly endorsed the growing need for additional lower carbon energy supply as his government prepares for what he called the “new geopolitics of energy and climate change”.

As business and investors called for a more rapid shift to renewable energy, Mr Morrison told The Australian Financial Review Business Summit that his government was responding to epoch-making changes in the way energy is produced, transported and consumed.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks at the 2021 AFR Business Summit.

Mr Morrison has long promoted the need for “affordable and reliable” power, but on Tuesday pointedly added “lower emissions” energy to his list of must-haves.

“The world’s response to climate change is simultaneously reshaping the global economy, global politics and the global energy system.”

“We are preparing. Australia is preparing. The Australian government is preparing for this new geo-politics of energy and climate change. It’s gone into another gear.”

“We must address the threats, and we must realise the opportunities for Australia.”

The comments come ahead of a busy year on global climate change policy, where Mr Morrison will appear at a number of major summits leading up to the United Nations Glasgow meeting in November.

Coal-rich Australia has been accused of falling behind the world’s leading economies on climate action, putting pressure on Mr Morrison to lift the country’s level of ambition towards net zero emissions by 2050.

Fortescue Metals chief executive Elizabeth Gaines said later during the summit that investors were putting a “strong focus” on climate change action.

“We will need to see a much more rapid transition to renewable energy in all its forms,” Ms Gaines said.

Ms Gaines added that European investors were ahead of many others in the need for a more rapid shift to renewables.

“It’s quite interesting because we actually see a different focus here in Australia than the investors we’re talking to offshore,” she said.

“There is going to be an acceleration of a transition to renewable energy.”

“A lot of governments and whole industries have committed to net zero emissions by 2050.

“But if we want to align with the Paris Agreement, 2050 will be too late.”

David Solomon, the Goldman Sachs chief executive, indicated strong support for a carbon tax, saying it was something that the world needs to “make progress as a society“.

He rejected the idea that financial institutions such as his own were sweating on the need for a carbon price as a way to make money, saying it was about ensuring capital isn’t wasted.

“It’s centred on finding ways that we can get capital allocated to places where the technology or the investment that’s being made is medium- and long-term.”

Mr Morrison encouraged the Summit’s business leaders to read US author Daniel Yergin’s latest book, published late last year – The New Map – which maps out how climate change policy is shaking up technology, infrastructure and even relations between nations.

“[Yergin] said our response to climate change will ‘bring continuing changes in how energy is produced, transported and consumed; in strategies and investment; in technologies and infrastructure; and in relations between countries’.”

“Very true,” Mr Morrison said.

Mohamed El-Erian told attendees that the private sector is moving ahead of governments.

“Any company that doesn’t get on board risks being left behind in a serious fashion,” he said. “It will tun faster than what governments are trying to do.”

Dr El-Erian, the Allianz chief economic adviser, says governments will find themselves “pushing on an open door” when they catch up.

Striking a note of caution, former Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris, said the new Biden administration could fail if it veers “too far left” on issues such as climate change.

Mr Liveris agreed that a carbon pricing system was inevitable.

But he also suggests safe nuclear energy should be on the agenda in the US and Australia.

Mr Liveris added that there was a need for more large-scale batteries, not just ones that can power states for up to five hours.

Links

• (AU) PM’s Claim Australian Coal Produces Much Lower Emissions Is ‘Nonsense’
• (AU) Australian PM Faces Pressure On Climate Policy But Has To Deal With Resistance In His Ruling Coalition
• (AU) As Biden Hits The Accelerator On Climate Action, Australia Remains Stuck In Policy Paralysis
• (AU) ‘Breathtaking’: What Joe Biden’s Sweeping Climate Plan Means For Scott Morrison
• (AU) The Verdict On Australia’s Emissions Targets: Catastrophic
• (AU) Politics Of Carbon Has Ended, Scott Morrison Declares
• (AU) Bob Carr: I wrote to other countries about Australia's obstinance on climate change. Their pressure might save us

Humans Have 'Destroyed Or Degraded' Two-Thirds Of The World's Original Tropical Rainforests

SBS - Reuters

Logging and land conversion for agriculture has wiped out 34 per cent of the world's original old-growth tropical rainforests and degraded another 30 per cent, leaving them more vulnerable to fire and future destruction.

The sun sets as smoke from illegal fires lingers, in Para state, Brazil last year. Source: AFP

Humans have degraded or destroyed roughly two-thirds of the world's original tropical rainforest cover, new data reveals, raising alarm that a key natural buffer against climate change is quickly vanishing. The forest loss is also a major contributor of climate-warming emissions, with the dense tropical forest vegetation representing the largest living reservoir of carbon.

Logging and land conversion, mainly for agriculture, have wiped out 34 per cent of the world's original old-growth tropical rainforests, and degraded another 30 per cent leaving them more vulnerable to fire and future destruction, according to an analysis by the non-profit Rainforest Foundation Norway.

More than half of the destruction since 2002 has been in South America's Amazon and bordering rainforests.

The Amazon #rainforest is still the largest, but shrinking fast due to cattle, agriculture and illegal logging, shows our new report. Great story and graphics by @Reuters & @jakespring https://t.co/CGnWVPfdr6 pic.twitter.com/gCwuoxgWE4

— Rainforest Foundation Norway (RFN) (@RainforestNORW) March 8, 2021

As more rainforest is destroyed, there is more potential for climate change, which in turn makes it more difficult for remaining forests to survive, said the report's author Anders Krogh, a tropical forest researcher.

"It's a terrifying cycle," Mr Krogh said. The total lost between just 2002 and 2019 was larger than the area of France, he found.

The rate of loss in 2019 roughly matched the annual level of destruction over the last 20 years, with a football field's worth of forest vanishing every 6 seconds, according to another recent report by the World Resources Institute.


Two-thirds of tropical rainforest destroyed or degraded globally, NGO says

The Brazilian Amazon has been under intense pressure in recent decades, as an agricultural boom has driven farmers and land speculators to torch plots of land for soybeans, beef and other crops. That trend has worsened since 2019, when right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro took office and began weakening environmental enforcement.

But the Amazon also represents the best hope for preserving what rainforest remains. The Amazon and its neighbors – the Orinoco and the Andean rainforest – account for 73.5 per cent of tropical forests still intact, according to Mr Krogh.

More than 13,000sq km of Brazilian rainforest burned last year. NurPhoto

The new report "reinforces that Brazil must take care of the forest," said Ane Alencar, a geographer with the Amazon Environmental Research Institute who was not involved in the work. "Brazil has the biggest chunk of tropical forest in the world and is also losing the most."

Southeast Asian islands, mostly belonging to Indonesia, collectively rank second in terms of forest destruction since 2002, with much of those forests cleared for palm oil plantations.

Central Africa ranks third, with most of the destruction centered around the Congo River basin, due to traditional and commercial farming as well as logging.

Forests that were defined in the report as degraded had either been partially destroyed, or destroyed and since replaced by secondary forest growth, Rainforest Foundation Norway said.

An aerial view shows a tract of Amazon jungle burning as it is cleared by farmers in Itaituba, Para, Brazil September 26, 2019. REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes/File Photo

That report's definition for intact forest may be overly strict, cautioned Tasso Azevedo, coordinator of the Brazilian deforestation mapping initiative MapBiomas. The analysis only counts untouched regions of at least 500 square kilometres as intact, leaving out smaller areas that may add to the world's virgin forest cover, he said.

Mr Krogh explained that this definition was chosen because smaller tracts are at risk of the "edge effect," where trees die faster and biodiversity is harder to maintain near the edge of the forest. A forest spanning 500 square kilometres can fully sustain its ecosystem, he said.

Links

• Brazil's Amazon rainforest is suffering its worst fires in a decade 
• Amazon fires and deforestation at decade record
• What are the Threats to the Rainforests?
• 3 ways climate change affects tropical rainforests
• Tropical Deforestation and Global Warming
• Deforestation and Climate Change
• What is the Relationship Between Deforestation And Climate Change?
• Climate change in the Amazon
• Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change
• Wikipedia - Deforestation and climate change

(NZ) When Climate Change And Other Emergencies Threaten Where We Live, How Will We Manage Our Retreat?

The Conversation - Christina Hanna | Bruce Glavovic | Iain White

www.shutterstock.com

Authors Christina Hanna is Lecturer, Environmental Planning, University of Waikato Bruce Glavovic is Professor, Massey University Iain White is Professor of Environmental Planning, University of Waikato

Despite living in dynamic environments and facing an uncertain future due to climate change, New Zealanders generally expect their land and property rights will endure indefinitely. But little stays the same.

As last week’s offshore earthquakes and tsunami alerts reminded us, our coasts and the people who live near them are vulnerable to a range of hazards. Such risks will only increase as sea level rises due to climate change.

The government has announced that the Resource Management Act will be replaced by three new laws, including a Managed Retreat and Climate Change Adaptation Act. The writing is on the wall: planners and communities need to prepare for change.

For those living in highly exposed places, managed retreat may be necessary to save lives and secure public safety.

These “managed retreats” — from low-lying shorelines vulnerable to rising sea level, areas that flood regularly and unstable or exposed land — may be a bitter pill to swallow. Especially so in the midst of a national housing crisis and a global pandemic.

But the impacts of climate change are already being felt, and will compound natural hazard risks well into the future. Some existing developments are already proving untenable, exposing people and the things they cherish to severe harm.

So it’s imperative to include the option of managed retreat in adaptation planning for the most at-risk communities.

Once a suburban hinterland, Christchurch’s earthquake ‘red zone’ now lies empty and abandoned. Author provided

What are managed retreats?

 Basically, managed retreats involve the strategic relocation of people, assets and activities to reduce risk.

For obvious reasons, retreats require difficult sacrifices for individuals, families and communities. The process can involve a range of mechanisms, including providing risk maps, official notices on land information memorandums (LIMs), development restrictions and financial incentives to relocate.

Planners and academics have been calling for a national managed retreat strategy, and the law change provides a unique opportunity.

Aside from compulsory acquisition powers used to deliver public works, Aotearoa New Zealand may be the first country to develop specific legislation for managed retreats. The world will be watching with interest.

Managing retreats that are sensitive to the dislocation of people from their homes, livelihoods, landscapes and culture is challenging. Developing the new legislation will involve difficult decisions about why, when, how and where retreats take place — and at whose cost.

Rather than trying to amend the Resource Management Act, an independent review panel says it's best to repeal it and start again.https://t.co/bhxaWwRpMr

— RNZ (@radionz) July 28, 2020

Putting people first

Just how these retreats will be managed, however, is yet to be determined. Our latest research examines who manages retreats and how. It’s a timely cue to examine the broad policy options and planning implications.

The proposed legislation presents an opportunity to transform land use patterns in Aotearoa New Zealand. But as we have seen in Canterbury, Matatā and elsewhere, the way managed retreats are handled matters greatly to the people affected.

At present, local managed retreat interventions are risky – professionally, politically, financially, culturally and socially. The necessary planning frameworks and resources are seldom available to support effective and equitable outcomes.

Some communities exposed to hazards and climate perils also face the risk of maladaptation — paradoxically, their vulnerability is increased by inaction or misguided efforts.

Who manages retreats and how?

Our research distinguishes three approaches to making policy for a spectrum of possible retreats. Broadly speaking, these are:

1. government control: using legislation, standards, policies and regulations, central or local government may restrict certain developments or compulsorily acquire property to enforce retreat
   
   
2. co-operative managed retreats: collaborative decision-making and negotiation between government agencies and affected parties, using instruments such as opt-in buyouts, relocation subsidies or land swaps
   
   
3. unmanaged retreats: individual choices influenced by factors such as loss of insurance cover and other market changes, decisions not to invest more in a property or to sell it (potentially at a loss), or to remain in place and face the risk.

Using our framework, we consider the risks and implications of each form of retreat. We draw on decades of lessons from international practice in disaster resettlement and planned relocation.

Getting the law right

Fundamentally, we argue that facilitating co-operative managed retreats is preferable. This means people and communities are embedded in the retreat strategy design, decision-making and delivery.

Necessarily then, flexible, collaborative and fit-for-purpose policies and practices are important. To manage expectations around at-risk, transient and marginal land, regulation of new development or land use is also required (such as placing time limits on consents).

Managed, co-operative and unmanaged retreats each have a role to play. But their associated practices and policy interventions must be strategically planned. To promote public safety, justice and equity, co-operation must be a central focus when managing the relocation of people.

Aotearoa New Zealand has an opportunity to foster long-term resilience in the face of climate change and many other land use challenges. Determining who manages retreats, how, and who pays is important work.

The shape of the new legislation — the processes and outcomes it encourages — will influence the lives and well-being of current and future generations.

Links

• Rising seas threaten Australia’s major airports – and it may be happening faster than we think
• Sea level rise is inevitable – but what we do today can still prevent catastrophe for coastal regions
• We’ve made progress to curb global emissions. But it’s a fraction of what’s needed
• Melting Glaciers, Rising Seas: Approaching Climate Tipping Points
• Study Shows Sea Level Will Rise More And Faster Than Previously Believed
• (AU) Victoria Gets Trillion-Dollar Bad News: Sea Level Rises Will Swamp Parts Of The State
• (AU) Rising Sea Levels Visibly Transforming Parts Of Coastal Region Around Kakadu National Park
• Sea-Level Rise From Climate Change Could Exceed The High-End Projections, Scientists Warn
• A Race Against Time To Rescue A Reef From Climate Change
• NZ's Climate Change Commission needs to account for the huge potential health benefits of reducing emissions
• Why we should release New Zealand's strangled rivers to lessen the impact of future floods
• New Zealand's COVID-19 stimulus is a 'lost opportunity' to move towards a low-emissions economy