01/04/2021

(AU) 'Delay Is As Dangerous As Denial': Scientists Urge Australia To Reach Net Zero Emissions Faster

The Guardian - 

Heatwaves to double and many properties will be uninsurable if global heating reaches 3C, Australian Academy of Science says

A house surrounded by flood water in Port Stephens. Scientists call on the Morrison government to accelerate the transition to net zero in a report that examines what Australia could look like in a 3C world. Photograph: Darren Pateman/AAP
Global heating of 3C would more than double the number of annual heatwaves in some parts of Australia, leave properties uninsurable due to flood and fire risk, and make many of the country’s ecosystems “unrecognisable”, according to Australia’s leading scientists.

The Australian Academy of Science is calling on the Morrison government to accelerate the country’s transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions in a report that examines what Australia could look like in a 3C world.

The analysis paints a grim picture in which heatwaves in states such as Queensland would occur seven times a year and last for 16 days at a time, and unprecedented fire seasons such as the 2019-20 fire disaster become a regular occurrence.

The report’s authors said what Australia and other countries did to reduce emissions over the next decade would be critical as it would determine what occurred in the second half of this century.

“When we sum up what’s happening, we’re not doing enough and we have to change the game to avoid a very consequential future,” Prof Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a biologist and climate scientist at the University of Queensland, said.

The planet has already warmed by 1.1C since pre-industrial times and, based on current commitments by countries under the Paris agreement, is on track for an average 3C temperature rise.

The report considers how that would affect Australia’s ecosystems, food production, cities and towns, and health and wellbeing – and what Australia’s contribution must be to ensure global heating remains well below 2C, as promised under the 2015 global climate deal.

Prof Mark Howden, from the Australian National University Climate Change Institute, said Australians had already experienced increased heat and reductions in rainfall as a result of the climate crisis.

He said a 3C world could lead to “heat stress” temperatures being a daily occurrence in northern parts of Australia. Nationally, what was once considered a hot year would become a cool year.

He said this would pose significant challenges for food systems and human health but “there are adaptive measures we can put in place”, such as better warning systems for managing the health effects of heatwaves and floods, and designing clean and green hospitals “for the future and not the past”.

While its assessment of a 3C world is bleak, the report paints a much more positive picture of what governments can do now and over the next decade to keep global heating to within 2C.

The scientists write that Australia lags behind the best practice demonstrated by many other countries. Their 10 recommendations include a call for the Morrison government to accelerate the transition to net zero emissions “given how much Australia stands to lose if GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions are not reduced”.

They also recommend governments improve their understanding of climate impacts, including tipping points and the compounding effects of multiple stressors at global heating of 2C or more, so that Australia can develop effective adaptation responses.

The report calls for a systematic exploration of how Australia should prepare its food production and supply for a worsening climate crisis, and improved understanding of the risks of climate change to human health.

Prof Frank Jotzo, from ANU’s Crawford School of Public Policy, said achieving the goals of the Paris agreement would require accelerated investment in renewable energy, energy storage and electricity transmission.

He said reducing transport emissions, which account for about 19% of Australia’s current carbon pollution, was the next major and necessary step, and that an electric vehicle fleet would also present “a handy opportunity for decentralised electricity storage”.

“The costs of reducing global emissions are much less than the cost of adapting to the impacts of unrestrained global warming,” Jotzo said.

Prof Lesley Hughes, an ecologist and pro vice-chancellor at Macquarie University, said there were steps the Morrison government could take immediately to encourage the uptake of electric vehicles, rather than inhibit it.

“Delay is as dangerous as denial,” she said.

“The main message we would have for the federal government is that what we do, as well as the rest of the world, in the next decade ... that’s the critical thing.”

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(AU) Seriously Ugly: Here’s How Australia Will Look If The World Heats By 3°C This Century

The Conversation -   

Shutterstock

Authors
  • Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg is founder and inaugural Director of the Global Change Institute and Professor of Marine Science and Deputy Director of the Centre for Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, University of Queensland.
  • Professor Lesley Hughes is an ecologist in the Department of Biological Sciences at Macquarie University and an expert on the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems.
Imagine, for a moment, a different kind of Australia. One where bushfires on the catastrophic scale of Black Summer happen almost every year.

One where 50℃ days in Sydney and Melbourne are common. Where storms and flooding have violently reshaped our coastlines, and unique ecosystems have been damaged beyond recognition – including the Great Barrier Reef, which no longer exists.

Frighteningly, this is not an imaginary future dystopia. It’s a scientific projection of Australia under 3℃ of global warming – a future we must both strenuously try to avoid, but also prepare for.

The sum of current commitments under the Paris climate accord puts Earth on track for 3℃ of warming this century. Research released today by the Australian Academy of Science explores this scenario in detail.

The report, which we co-authored with colleagues, lays out the potential damage to Australia’s ecosystems, food production, urban centres and human health. Unless the world changes course and dramatically curbs greenhouse gas emissions, this is how bad it could get.



A spotlight on the damage Nations signed up to the Paris Agreement collectively aim to limit global warming to well below 2℃ this century and to pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5℃. But on current emissions-reduction pledges, global temperatures are expected to far exceed these goals, reaching 2.9℃ by 2100.

Australia is the driest inhabited continent, and already has a highly variable climate of “droughts and flooding rains”. This is why of all developed nations, Australia has been identified as one of the most vulnerable to climate change.

The damage is already evident. Since records began in 1910, Australia’s average surface temperature has warmed by 1.4℃, and its open ocean areas have warmed by 1℃. Extreme events – such as storms, droughts, bushfires, heatwaves and floods – are becoming more frequent and severe.

Today’s report brings together multiple lines of evidence such as computer modelling, observed changes and historical paleoclimate studies. It gives a picture of the damage that’s already occurred, and what Australia should expect next. It shines a spotlight on four sectors: ecosystems, food production, cities and towns, and health and well-being.

In all these areas, we found the impacts of climate change are profound and accelerating rapidly.

Perth residents at an evacuation centre during a bushfire in February this year. Such events will become more frequent under climate change. Richard Wainwright/AAP

1. Ecosystems

Australia’s natural resources are directly linked to our well-being, culture and economic prosperity. Warming and changes in climate have already eroded the services ecosystems provide, and affected thousands of species.

The problems extend to the ocean, which is steadily warming. Heat stress is bleaching and killing corals, and severely damaging crucial habitats such as kelp forests and seagrass meadows. As oceans absorb carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere, seawater is reaching record acidity levels, harming marine food webs, fisheries and aquaculture.

At 3℃ of global warming by 2100, oceans are projected to absorb five times more heat than the observed amount accumulated since 1970. Being far more acidic than today, ocean oxygen levels will decline at ever-shallower depths, affecting the distribution and abundance of marine life everywhere. At 1.5-2℃ warming, the complete loss of coral reefs is very likely.

Heat stress is killing corals and marine animal habitat. Shutterstock

Under 3℃ warming, global sea levels are projected to rise 40-80 centimetres, and by many more metres over coming centuries. Rising sea levels are already inundating low-lying coastal areas, and saltwater is intruding into freshwater wetlands. This leads to coastal erosion that amplifies storm impacts and affects both ecosystems and people.

Land and freshwater environments have been damaged by drought, fire, extreme heatwaves, invasive species and disease. An estimated 3 billion vertebrate animals were killed or displaced in the Black Summer bushfires. Some 24 million hectares burned, including 80% of the Blue Mountains World Heritage Area and 50% of Gondwana rainforests. At 3℃ of warming, the number of extreme fire days could double.

Some species are shifting to cooler latitudes or higher elevations. But most will struggle to keep up with the unprecedented rate of warming. Critical thresholds in many natural systems are likely to be exceeded as global warming reaches 1.5℃. At 2℃ and beyond, we’re likely to see the complete loss of coral reefs, and inundation of iconic ecosystems such as the World Heritage-listed Kakadu National Park.

At 3℃ of global warming, Australia’s present-day ecological systems would be unrecognisable. The first documented climate-related global extinction of a mammal, the Bramble Cay melomys from the Torres Strait, is highly unlikely to be the last. Climate change is predicted to increase extinction rates by several orders of magnitude.

Degradation of Australia’s unique ecosystems will harm the tourism and recreation industries, as well as our food security, health and culture.

There are ways to reduce the climate risk for ecosystems – many of which also benefit humans. For example, preserving and restoring mangroves protects our coasts from storms, increases carbon storage and retains fisheries habitat.

Climate change will accelerate species extinctions. Pictured: the critically endangered orange-bellied parrot. Shutterstock

2. Food production

Australian agriculture and food security already face significant risks from droughts, heatwaves, fires, floods and invasive species. At 2℃ or more of global warming, rainfall will decline and droughts in areas such as southeastern and southwestern Australia will intensify. This will reduce water availability for irrigated agriculture and increase water prices.

Heat stress affects livestock welfare, reproduction and production. Projected temperature and humidity changes suggest livestock will experience many more heat stress days each year. More frequent storms and heavy rainfall are likely to worsen erosion on grazing land and may lead to livestock loss from flooding.

Heat stress and reduced water availability will also make farms less profitable. A 3℃ global temperature increase would reduce yields of key crops by between 5% and 50%. Significant reductions are expected in oil seeds (35%), wheat (18%) and fruits and vegetables (14%).

Climate change also threatens forestry in hotter, drier regions such as southwestern Australia. There, the industry faces increased fire risks, changed rainfall patterns and growing pest populations. In cooler regions such as Tasmania and Gippsland, forestry production may increase as the climate warms. Existing plantations would change substantially under 3℃ warming.

As ocean waters warm, distributions and stock levels of commercial fish species are continuing to change. This will curb profitability. Many aquaculture fisheries may fundamentally change, relocate or cease to exist.

These changes may cause fisheries workers to suffer unemployment, mental health issues (potentially leading to suicides) and other problems. Strategic planning to create new business opportunities in these regions may reduce these risks.

Under climate change, drought will badly hurt farm profitability. Shutterstock

3. Cities and towns

 Almost 90% of Australians live in cities and towns and will experience climate change in urban environments.

Under a sea level rise of 1 metre by the end of the century – a level considered plausible by federal officials – between 160,000 and 250,000 Australian properties and infrastructure are at risk of coastal flooding.

Strategies to manage the risk include less construction in high-risk areas, and protecting coastal land with sea walls, sand dunes and mangroves. But some coastal areas may have to be abandoned.

Extreme heat, bushfires and storms put strain on power stations and infrastructure. At the same time, more energy is needed for increased air conditioning use. Much of Australia’s electricity generation relies on ageing and unreliable coal-fired power stations. Extreme weather can also disrupt and damage the oil and gas industries. Diversifying energy sources and improving infrastructure will be important to ensure reliable energy supplies.

The insurance and financial sector is becoming increasingly aware of climate risk and exposure. Insurance firms face increased claims due to climate-related disasters including floods, cyclones and mega-fires. Under some scenarios, one in every 19 property owners face unaffordable insurance premiums by 2030. A 3℃ world would render many more properties and businesses uninsurable.

Cities and towns, however, can be part of the climate solution. High-density urban living leads to a lower per capita greenhouse gas emission “footprint”. Also, innovative solutions are easier to implement in urban environments.

Passive cooling techniques, such as incorporating more plants and street trees during planning, can reduce city temperatures. But these strategies may require changes to stormwater management and can take time to work.

Extreme storms will continue to violently reshape our coastlines. David Moir/ AAP

4. Human health and well-being

 A 3℃ world threatens human health, livelihoods and communities. The elderly, young, unwell, and those from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds are at most risk.

Heatwaves on land and sea are becoming longer, more frequent and severe. For example, at 3℃ of global warming, heatwaves in Queensland would happen as often as seven times a year, lasting 16 days on average. These cause physiological heat stress and worsen existing medical conditions.

Bushfire-related health impacts are increasing, causing deaths and exacerbating pre-existing conditions such as heart and lung disease. Tragically, we saw this unfold during Black Summer. These extreme conditions will increase at 2℃ and further at 3℃, causing direct and indirect physical and mental health issues.

Under 3℃ warming, climate damage to businesses will likely to lead to increased unemployment and possibly higher suicide rates, mental health issues and health issues relating to heat stress.

At 3°C global warming, many locations in Australia would be very difficult to inhabit due to projected water shortages.

As weather patterns change, transmission of some infectious diseases, such as Ross River virus, will become more intense. “Tropical” diseases may spread to more temperate areas across Australia.

Strategies exist to help mitigate these effects. They include improving early warning systems for extreme weather events and boosting the climate resilience of health services. Nature-based solutions, such as increasing green spaces in urban areas, will also help.

Air quality in Canberra was the worst in the world after the Black Summer fires. Lukas Coch/AAP

How to avoid catastrophe

The report acknowledges that limiting global temperatures to 1.5℃ this century is now extremely difficult. Achieving net-zero global emissions by 2050 is the absolute minimum required to to avoid the worst climate impacts.

Australia is well positioned to contribute to this global challenge. We have a well-developed industrial base, skilled workforce and vast sources of renewable energy.

But Australia must also pursue far more substantial emissions reduction. Under the Paris deal, we’ve pledged to reduce emissions by 26-28% between 2005 and 2030. Given the multiple and accelerating climate threats Australia faces, we must scale up this pledge. We must also display the international leadership and collaboration required to set Earth on a safer climate trajectory.

Our report recommends Australia immediately do the following:
  1. join global leaders in increasing actions to urgently tackle and solve climate change

  2. develop strategies to meet the challenges of extreme events that are increasing in intensity, frequency and scale

  3. improve our understanding of climate impacts, including tipping points and the compounding effects of multiple stressors at global warming of 2℃ or more

  4. systematically explore how food production and supply systems should prepare for climate change

  5. better understand the impacts and risks of climate change for the health of Australians

  6. introduce policies to deliver deep and rapid cuts in emissions across the economy

  7. scale up the development and implementation of low- to zero-emissions technologies

  8. review Australia’s capacity and flexibility to take up innovations and technology breakthroughs for transitioning to a low-emissions future

  9. develop a better understanding of climate solutions through dialogue with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples – particularly strategies that helped people manage Australian ecosystems for tens of thousands of years

  10. continue to build adaptation strategies and greater commitment for meeting the challenges of change already in the climate system.
We don’t have much time to avert catastrophe. This decade must be transformational, and one where we choose a safer future.

The report upon which this article is based, The Risks to Australia of a 3°C Warmer World, was authored and reviewed by 21 experts.

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(AU) The risks to Australia of a 3°C warmer world

Australian Academy of Science

Scientists release landmark climate change report



The Australian Academy of Science is calling on the Australian Government to accelerate Australia’s transition to net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next 10 to 20 years to play our part in avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.

The key recommendation is included in a landmark Academy report published today.

The report, which explores the risks to Australia’s future based on the current global trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, states that the world reaching net zero emissions by 2050 is an absolute minimum, if Australia is to avoid potentially insurmountable challenges to its cities, ecosystems, industries and food and health systems.

The report says Australia is well positioned to play its part in meeting this challenge, with a skilled workforce, strong industrial base and plentiful renewable energy resources facilitating easier emission reductions compared to many other countries.

It highlights that even if the world’s governments meet their current Paris pledges on time, Earth is likely to reach average global surface temperatures of 3oC above the pre-industrial period during this century, with catastrophic consequences.

Projected warming by 2100 under various scenarios from top to bottom (Climate Action Tracker 2020; Revill and Harris 2017): ‘Baseline’ models assume no action on reducing GHG emissions while ‘current polices’ are based on current commitments and policies made by the international community. ‘Optimistic polices’ include additional pledges that governments have made as of December 2019. ‘Pledges and Targets’ are conditional and have not yet been implemented. Pathways for ‘1.5°C’ and ‘2°C’ are scenarios based on models run for IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C (IPCC 2018). Temperatures of each scenario are shown as a range arising from different climate models. Figure: Australian Academy of Science. LARGE IMAGE

Further pledges to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 are required for the world to stay well below 2oC of warming, the goal agreed to under the Paris Agreement.

To achieve net zero, the report says Australia will need to rapidly remove greenhouse gas emissions from a range of sectors including electricity generation and distribution; electrify the transport sector, industry and buildings; increase energy efficiency across the board; and reduce non-energy related GHG emissions from all sectors including industrial processes and agriculture.

President of the Australian Academy of Science, Professor John Shine, welcomed the report.

“The Australian Academy of Science is proud to have played an active role in assessing the science of climate change since the 1970s. This new report makes clear that while the planet is well on the path to harmful climate change, as with COVID-19, science has solutions,” Professor Shine said.

“Australia is well positioned to meet the climate change challenge by combining our scientific knowledge with economic opportunities associated with moves to net zero greenhouse gas emissions.
Australia is well positioned to meet the climate change challenge by combining our scientific knowledge with economic opportunities associated with moves to net zero greenhouse gas emissions.
“We urge the Australian Government to implement the recommendations of this report. The Academy stands ready to assist by providing sound scientific advice on climate change to inform the Government’s multifaceted policy response.”

Academy Fellow Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg. Photo: supplied.
Academy Fellow Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg is the chair of the expert panel that developed the report.

He said limiting climate change to 1.5°C is now virtually impossible and that a rapid transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions is required if the international community is to limit warming to well below 2°C.

“Current international commitments to greenhouse gas emission reduction, if unchanged, would result in average global surface temperatures that are 3°C above the pre-industrial period in the lifetimes of our children and grandchildren,” said Professor Hoegh-Guldberg, from the University of Queensland.

“The evidence presented in this risk-assessment report, which is based on peer-reviewed scientific literature, indicates that this would have serious consequences for Australia and the world.
The evidence presented in this risk-assessment report, which is based on peer-reviewed scientific literature, indicates that this would have serious consequences for Australia and the world.
“Australia must revisit its emission reduction commitments and work with other countries to provide the leadership and collaboration required to place Australia and the world on a safer climate trajectory.

“Australia has a stable business landscape. We have a great scientific tradition. We have enormous resources for the next wave of innovative technologies. We not only have a responsibility to be an international leader on climate action but need to grasp the enormous economic opportunities presented by the ‘new’ economy,” said Professor Hoegh-Guldberg.

The report says Australia can become a clean energy exporter and potentially a global renewable energy superpower. It highlights Australia’s relative advantage with its abundant natural resources for solar and other renewable energy generation, as well as significant deposits of new economy minerals critical for developing batteries and other low emission technologies.

The report focuses on the consequences of 3°C of global warming for four areas of importance to Australia’s future: ecosystems; food production; cities and towns; and health and wellbeing. It also focuses on Australia’s contribution to what must be done to stay well below 2°C and thus limit these impacts. 

The impacts of climatic changes on the lives and wellbeing of Australians are also discussed in detail in the report. Several examples across the four key areas are provided in the background information below.

Distinguished Professor Lesley Hughes. Photo: supplied.
The report makes a total of 10 recommendations (see page 13). They include to:
  • scale up the development and implementation of next-generation zero greenhouse gas technologies.
  • systematically explore how our food production and supply systems should prepare for the challenges of climate change under growing extremes including the implications for carbon sequestration.
  • improve our understanding of climate impacts, including tipping points, as well as the compounding effects of multiple stressors at global warming of 2°C or more so that we can develop effective adaptation responses.
Expert panel member Distinguished Professor Lesley Hughes, focusing on ecosystems, said most Australian species cannot evolve quickly enough to cope with the rapid increases in temperatures and associated increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events we now observe and feel.

“The unprecedented bushfire season in 2019–20 and the mass dying of corals on the Great Barrier Reef demonstrate how rapidly and fundamentally our global environment is changing with only 1.1°C of global warming,” said Professor Hughes, who is Pro Vice-Chancellor (Research) at Macquarie University.

“It’s not too late to avoid 3°C. We should still be aiming for a stable global temperature below 2°C but to get to that point, we must reduce emissions very rapidly—in particular accelerating the energy transition in the next decade. This must be one of the most urgent national and international priorities.”
"It’s not too late to avoid 3°C. We should still be aiming for a stable global temperature below 2°C but to get to that point, we must reduce emissions very rapidly—in particular accelerating the energy transition in the next decade. This must be one of the most urgent national and international priorities."
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31/03/2021

Climate Change: Consumer Pose 'Growing Threat' To Tropical Forests

BBC - Matt McGrath

Copyright Getty Images

Rising imports in wealthy countries of coffee, cocoa and other products are a "growing threat" to forests in tropical regions according to a new study.

Research shows consumer behaviour in the UK and other rich nations is responsible for the loss of almost 4 trees per person per year.

Increasing numbers of trees are now being planted in the developed world, the authors say.

But imports of products linked to deforestation undermine these efforts.

This growing international trade is doing more harm than good for climate and for biodiversity say the researchers.

Among the world's forests, trees growing in tropical areas are said to be the most valuable in protecting species and limiting global heating.

Tropical forests are home to between 50-90% of all terrestrial plants and animals.

They are also critical for the climate, soaking up and storing vast amounts of carbon dioxide.

But in the Amazon, central Africa, Indonesia and parts of Asia, growing numbers of trees have been cut down in recent decades so farmers can grow commodity crops like soybeans, and graze cattle for beef.

This new study looks at the global deforestation picture over the years between 2001 and 2015.

Demand for coffee is one of the big drivers of deforestation in parts of the world. Copyright Getty Images

Using high-resolution forest maps and a global supply chain model, the researchers were able to compile a comprehensive and highly detailed account of how deforestation is being driven by consumer behaviour, especially in richer countries.

So while countries like the UK, Germany, China and India have all planted more trees at home in recent years, all are linked to rising deforestation outside their borders, particularly in tropical forests.

The researchers were able to be remarkably precise about the impacts of this trade. Cocoa consumption in Germany poses the highest risk to forests in Cote D'Ivoire and Ghana, in Tanzania it's the demand for sesame seeds among Japanese consumers that's a key driver.

It's not just the wealthier nations - demand in China is responsible for deforestation in Northern Laos as land is cleared for rubber plantations.

"The imports of tropical deforestation-related commodities tend to be increasing, while the global deforestation rate was reported to be decreasing," said first author Nguyen Tien Hoang from the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature in Kyoto.

"Obtaining net forest gains domestically but expanding non-domestic deforestation footprints, especially in the tropics, might do more harm than good for climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation," he told BBC News.

While tree planting in the UK and other countries is making a difference it is being undermined by imports of products linked to deforestation. Copyright Getty Images

While consumers in India and China are responsible for the loss of around one tree per person per year, this rises to almost four in the richer G7 group of countries.

"This figure shows that the consumption of developed countries and the G7 in particular is destroying the world's forests, the planet's lung, and their biodiversity," said Adeline Favrel, from France Nature Environment, who was not involved with the study.

"Our consumption is not destroying our forests, but the forests of other countries, particularly the tropical forest, which is the richest in terms of biodiversity. The main culprits are our consumption of wood, meat, palm oil and soya."

Dealing with the problem though is not easy. The authors say that continued economic growth is not the answer. As richer countries saw their economies grow dramatically over the period of the study, their dependence on tropical forests has increased.

German imports of cocoa beans from Cote D'Ivoire are a growing threat to forests. Copyright Getty Images

"Rich countries should recognize their role in deforestation as a major consumer of forest-risk goods," said Audrey Changoe, an expert on trade at Friends of the Earth Europe.

"Governments need to adopt regulatory measures to oblige companies to assess and mitigate deforestation risks. The EU is now working on an accountability framework to address environmental harms and human rights by business. This must include liability for the harm caused by companies and access to courts for victims of human rights violations and environmental crimes."

The authors argue that paying poorer countries for environmental services has already cut deforestation rates and helped people out of poverty. They are calling for an expansion and increase of these long-term solutions.

The study has been published in the journal Nature Ecology and Evolution.

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The Climate Crisis Will Cause Once-Dormant Viruses To Reemerge

Earth.Org - Jamie Sarao

The climate crisis is causing ancient permafrost to thaw, which could unleash viruses and bacteria that have been dormant for thousands of years, presenting a potentially catastrophic risk to humans and ecosystems alike. 

During the 2016 summer heatwave in the Siberian Tundra, a group of reindeer herders became ill from a mysterious illness, which took the life of 2,500 reindeer and a 12-year old boy.

It was thought that the illness was the “Siberian plague” that was last seen in the region in 1941, and investigations revealed that the disease was anthrax.

Its origin was a reindeer carcass that died from anthrax 75 years previously that became exposed due to melting soil as a result of warming temperatures. 

This reemergence of viruses and bacteria may become more prevalent as the climate crisis progresses. The conditions of permafrost are ideal for bacteria to remain alive for very long periods of time, perhaps as long as a million years.

 Permafrost is a very good preserver of microbes and viruses because it is cold, devoid of oxygen and dark.

Scientists have discovered fragments of RNA from the 1918 Spanish flu virus in corpses buried in mass graves in the tundra of Alaska and it is likely that smallpox and the bubonic plague are buried in Siberia, showing the likelihood of these agents being unleashed. 

A study in 2011 postulated that as a result of melting permafrost, diseases prevalent in the 18th and 19th centuries could come back, especially near the cemeteries where the victims of these diseases were buried.

In a project that began in the 1990s, scientists from the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Novosibirsk have tested the remains of Stone Age people that were found in southern Siberia, as well as samples from the corpses of men who had died during viral epidemics in the 19th century and were buried in the Russian permafrost.

The researchers found fragments of the DNA of smallpox in some of the bodies. 

Additionally, researchers in a 2005 study successfully revived bacteria that had been frozen in a pond in Alaska for over 30 000 years, since woolly mammoths still roamed the Earth. When the ice melted, the bacteria began swimming around, unaffected.

Two years later, scientists were able to revive an 8-million-year-old bacterium that had been frozen beneath a glacier in Antarctica.

Luckily, not all bacteria can come back to life after being frozen in permafrost. Anthrax forms spores, which can survive being frozen for over a century. Similar bacteria include tetanus and the bacteria that causes botulism. 

A 2009 study claimed that residents in the Arctic rely on subsistence hunting and fishing for food sources, as well as a suitable climate to store food. This food storage includes ground air-drying, being placed under ground and in close vicinity to permafrost.

The bacteria that prompts botulism is active in temperatures higher than 4 degrees Celsius and as the climate warms, the potential of food-borne botulism could grow. 

In the Arctic, temperatures have risen faster in the last century compared to the rest of the Northern hemisphere, meaning further rapid melting.

In the past decade, the Arctic has warmed 0.75 degrees Celsius whereas Earth overall has warmed 0.8 degrees Celsius in 137 years.

The warming of the climate will also trigger the migration of species that are carriers of diseases such as the Zika Virus, a mosquito-borne virus primarily carried by Aedes mosquitos and which causes fever, muscle and joint pain and headaches.

Zika virus infection during pregnancy can cause infants to be born with microcephaly and in severe cases, miscarriages. These mosquitoes also transmit dengue fever and chikungunya fever.

Though these mosquitoes primarily reside in tropical southeastern states in America, the increase in temperature could encourage a dispersion of these insects.

A 2017 study focuses on the outbreak of the Zika Virus in Brazil from 2014 to 2016. By the end of 2016, approximately 200,000 cases of Zika Virus were confirmed.

The virus was claimed to be brought to the country in the 2014 World Sprint Championship canoe race in Rio de Janeiro which brought those from the French Polyneisa into the country which triggered Zika transmission.

A year later, once the virus had domiciled in Brazil, it eventually spread throughout Latin America and the Caribbean and the virus had been found in every country that contained the Aedes aegypti mosquito. 

As the climate crisis continues, air temperatures will increase, resulting in quicker thawing. Higher temperatures also encourage the cholera bacteria (Vibrio Cholerae) to duplicate, resulting in a wider spread.

The melting of the soil could contaminate water supplies, therefore spreading water-borne diseases such as cholera and others. 

While we know of the frightening and life-threatening diseases and viruses that could come back to life with the advancement of the climate crisis, there is no way for us to know the full extent of this without experiencing it.

It is imperative that humanity mitigates the climate crisis before unknown and horrific diseases spring back to life.

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(AU) Yes, Achievements Are Important. So What Has Morrison Achieved On Climate?

Canberra Times - Steph Hodgins-May

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his UK counterpart Boris Johnson are ideological bedfellows but have very different ambitions on climate. Picture: Getty Images
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his UK counterpart Boris Johnson are ideological bedfellows but have very different ambitions on climate. Picture: Getty Images

Author
Steph Hodgins-May is Greenpeace Australia's head of Pacific.
She is an environmental lawyer and climate campaigner with extensive experience in strategic planning and advocacy. 
Steph Hodgins-May holds a Bachelor of Law & Arts and a Master of International Relations from Deakin University.
When it comes to climate policy, Australia talks big talk.

A month out from US President Biden's global climate summit, the hot air is rising as our Prime Minister pushes for Australia's climate track record to be vindicated by his international counterparts.

But for all the talk of "practical action" on climate change from Mr Morrison, even the most cursory glance at Australia's climate performance reveals a startling lack of action, practical or otherwise.

Just this month a new policy brief by Canberra climate experts revealed Australia won't meet net-zero emissions by 2050 with its current effort.

Australia's poor climate performance has not gone unnoticed internationally, with our country regularly in the bottom ranks of global climate action trackers.

Now, with renewed climate ambition from the US, a vow from Boris Johnson to put climate change at the forefront of his international policy, and the introduction of carbon border tariffs in the EU, Australia is increasingly looking like a poor player in the global effort to tackle climate change. At the global climate summit, that will all come out in the wash, with Australia set to be embarrassed and isolated. Scott Morrison, one eye to marketing as always, is looking to manage the expected fallout.

Morrison's attempt at expectations management is yet another example of the PM putting politics before policy.

Rather than leading by outlining a vision and plan to get there, Morrison is trying to spin his way out of trouble and claim credit for the work of others, namely state governments that are most responsible for the drop in Australia's emissions through their renewable energy targets.

Strong leaders are ambitious and agenda-setting but like Morrison's handling of sexual assault allegations, the climate issue has exposed him as a man without a plan.

When it comes to climate policy, Morrison agrees that ambition is important but says he wants to be judged on his "achievements". Let's take a look at what the Morrison government has achieved so far on emissions reduction.

Scott Morrison leads a government that has not had a national climate policy for years. Under his leadership, Australia was one of only a handful of countries seeking to use Kyoto carryover credits to meet emissions-reduction targets under the Paris Agreement.

Morrison has encouraged the export of ever more fossil fuels, which are responsible for around five times Australia's massive domestic emissions. His government gifts around $12 billion of taxpayer money to the coal, oil and gas industries every year.

As PM, Morrison has steadfastly opposed measures to reduce emissions, protected members of his government who are straight-up climate-denialist conspiracy theorists, and recently supported climate action-blocker Mathias Cormann to become secretary-general of the OECD.

As other countries around the world, including Australia's major trading partners, take steps to decarbonise their economies and achieve net-zero emissions, Morrison has tried to keep highly polluting coal-burning power stations running, and advocated for Australia's recovery from the pandemic to be powered by another climate-destroying fossil fuel, gas.

But the height of this hypocrisy is reserved for the people that Morrison calls "family", our Pacific neighbours, who stand to be more impacted by climate change than any other region in the world. 

In a recent opinion piece co-authored by Morrison and the leaders of the US, Japan and India, Morrison said "we will work together and with others to strengthen the Paris Agreement, and enhance the climate actions of all nations".

These words mean nothing when Morrison has ignored Pacific leaders' consistent calls for Australia to reduce its emissions, despite his government signing onto communiques and declarations that recognise climate change as the number one threat to the Pacific.

As the world's largest coal exporter and the largest per capita emitter, Australia has a responsibility to help protect Pacific Island nations from the devastating impacts of climate change such as cyclones and sea-level rises that threaten to submerge entire nations beneath the waves.

Morrison has shirked many chances to lead, but as the urgent need to prevent the climate crisis grows, opportunities continue to arise. Biden's climate summit is the first, but soon after there is the Pacific Islands Forum and then COP26 in Glasgow.

Try as he might to avoid it, Morrison could still have greatness thrust upon him. He just has to "step up" to the challenge, listen to his Pacific counterparts and join them in leading on climate.

Looking backwards and side-stepping ambition won't save the Pacific, and it won't save us.

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