The Future of Farming in a Warming Australia - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia’s farmers are no strangers to adversity. But as the nation warms faster than the global average, the agricultural landscape is reaching a tipping point, one defined by drought, flood, and the urgent need to adapt.

🔍 In Brief Shifting zones: Warmer conditions are pushing crop and livestock zones southward and upslope, making some regions less viable. Adaptation limits: Many farmers are adapting, but rising costs and speed of change risk outpacing capacity, especially in dryland regions. Regenerative potential: It's promising but still niche scaling requires financial incentives, education, and policy reform. Indigenous knowledge: Integration is growing, especially in land management, but needs greater institutional support. Water policy impact: Current frameworks are fragmented and contested—reform is urgently needed to balance competing interests. Mental health toll: Climate stress is contributing to higher anxiety, depression, and suicide risk in rural areas. Support remains patchy. Tech barriers: High costs and poor connectivity limit uptake of smart farming tools in many regions. Export vs. emissions: Tension exists. Emissions from agriculture must fall to meet climate targets, requiring innovation and accountability. Insurance outlook: Insurers are beginning to price in climate risk. Some regions may become uninsurable within decades. Vision gap: No unified long-term strategy exists. The future is being shaped piecemeal by a mix of actors with differing priorities.

🔥 Climate Pressure on the Paddock

Australia's climate is shifting, and it’s hitting farmers first. 

According to the CSIRO, temperatures in Australia have risen by 1.5°C since 1910, with longer dry spells and more frequent extreme weather events becoming the new norm. 

This means crops are failing more often, livestock are under increasing heat stress, and water sources are drying up or becoming salinised.

“Farming has always been about resilience,” says Dr. Rachel Whitmore, a climate agronomist based in Wagga Wagga. “But we’re now dealing with nonlinear shifts. Entire growing seasons are disappearing.”

💧 Water, the New Gold

Access to water is now the most critical variable in Australian farming. 

In the Murray–Darling Basin, mismanagement, over-extraction, and prolonged drought have created a hydrological nightmare. 

Irrigation-dependent crops like cotton and almonds are under scrutiny, while farmers growing wheat and barley are turning to drought-tolerant varieties or abandoning their fields altogether.

Meanwhile, rainfall deficits in eastern Australia are exposing how fragmented water governance fails both farmers and ecosystems.

🌱 Regenerative Agriculture: Trend
      or Transformation?

Out of crisis comes innovation. 

Across the country, a growing number of producers are turning to regenerative agriculture, which focuses on building soil health, storing carbon, and reducing chemical inputs. 

In Central Victoria, some farms have cut emissions by up to 60% while improving yields—even during dry years.

But critics warn that without government support, regenerative methods will remain a niche practice. “It’s not enough to be climate smart,” says sustainability consultant Maya Chen. “We need national-scale reform in subsidies, land use, and water rights.”

🚜 The Role of Tech and Policy

Smart farming tools, like AI-assisted irrigation, drone crop monitoring, and carbon accounting platforms, A are spreading fast. 

Yet rural broadband gaps and high equipment costs are major barriers. 

The Department of Agriculture is promoting innovation hubs, but critics say it’s too little, too late.

In March 2025, a Climate Council report warned that without an integrated national adaptation strategy, many of Australia’s food-growing regions will become economically unviable within 20 years.

🌍 The Big Picture

The future of farming in Australia isn’t just a rural issue. 

It’s about food prices, export revenues, carbon emissions, and national resilience. 

As the climate crisis deepens, farmers will either lead the transformation, or become its earliest casualties.
 

📚Links

• 🔗 Climate Change in Australia – CSIRO
• 🔗 Australian Farmers Facing Climate Change: What Lies Ahead? – ABC News
• 🔗 Murray–Darling Basin Plan – Murray–Darling Basin Authority
• 🔗 Regenerative Agriculture: Growing Solutions to Climate Change – Soils For Life
• 🔗 Climate Change 2023: The Physical Science Basis – IPCC
• 🔗 Climate Change and Agriculture in Australia – Climate Council
• 🔗 Heat Stress in Livestock – Meat & Livestock Australia
• 🔗 Australian Agricultural Innovation Hubs – Department of Agriculture

Climate Change Books: Fact and Fiction

🌍 Climate Fiction (Cli-Fi) Novels
	The Overstory by Richard Powers (2018) Theme: Interconnectedness of humans and trees; ecological activism. Awards: Pulitzer Prize for Fiction. Why Read: A deeply moving novel about people brought together by environmental catastrophe and forest conservation.
	Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson (2020) Theme: Climate policy, geoengineering, global governance. Scope: Realistic and sweeping in scale; near-future speculative fiction. Why Read: Possibly the most comprehensive fictional take on humanity's response to global warming.
	Flight Behavior by Barbara Kingsolver (2012) Theme: Shifting ecosystems and climate denial in rural America. Setting: Appalachian Mountains. Why Read: A poetic and personal exploration of how climate affects both nature and community.
	New York 2140 by Kim Stanley Robinson (2017) Theme: Sea level rise, economic inequality. Setting: A partially submerged New York City. Why Read: A vivid and well-researched vision of urban life post-climate collapse.
	The Drowned World by J.G. Ballard (1962) Theme: Post-apocalyptic world of melting ice caps and flooded cities. Legacy: One of the earliest works of climate-oriented science fiction. Why Read: A surreal, psychological take on climate catastrophe.
	American War by Omar El Akkad (2017) Theme: Climate-induced civil war and displacement. Setting: Future America devastated by rising seas and oil bans. Why Read: A gripping, brutal allegory for the geopolitical impacts of climate change.
🌀 Young Adult & Dystopian Fiction
	Parable of the Sower by Octavia E. Butler (1993) Theme: Societal collapse due to climate change and inequality. Why Read: Visionary and prophetic, Butler explores resilience in the face of environmental and social collapse
	Dry by Neal Shusterman and Jarrod Shusterman (2018) Theme: Water scarcity in suburban California. Why Read: A gripping young adult novel about survival and community in crisis.
📚 Non-Fiction Books About Climate Change
	This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate by Naomi Klein (2014) Focus: Economic systems as drivers of climate crisis. Why Read: A foundational text in environmental justice and climate policy.
	The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming by David Wallace-Wells (2019) Focus: Worst-case scenarios of unchecked climate change. Why Read: Vivid, shocking, and meticulously reported.
	The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History (2014) Focus: Biodiversity loss as a result of human activity. Awards: Pulitzer Prize for General Non-Fiction. Why Read: A sobering examination of humanity's impact on life on Earth.

 Links

📘 Recent Academic Studies on Climate Change

1. A Bibliometric Analysis on the Research Trends of Global Climate Change
   This study examines current directions in climate change research, highlighting areas such as human health risks, societal inequalities, and policy regulations.
2. Critical Environmental Justice in Contemporary Scholarship and Activism
   This paper explores the complex constructions of environmental justice (EJ) in both academic and activist spheres, aiming to map contemporary EJ discourse and identify opportunities for cooperation and real-world change.
3. Climate Smart Agriculture Strategies for Enhanced Agricultural Sustainability
   This research discusses the implementation of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) strategies to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change, aiming to boost resilience in the agricultural sector.
4. Heads, Hearts, and Hands: A Systematic Review of Empirical Studies on Climate Change Education
   This systematic review analyzes empirical studies on climate change education, emphasizing pedagogical approaches that support learners in processing their emotions and taking action.
5. Climate Challenges for Event Management: A Research Agenda
   This study addresses the impacts of human-induced climate change on event management, proposing a research agenda to tackle the challenges posed by more frequent and intense extreme events.
6. Climate-Change-Driven Conflict: Insights from North Wollo, Northeast Ethiopia
   This research investigates the link between climate change and conflict in Northeast Ethiopia, providing insights into how climate-induced stressors can exacerbate existing tensions.
7. Negotiating Climate Change in Public Discourse: Insights from Critical Discourse Analysis
   This paper examines how climate change is communicated in the media, highlighting the importance of discursive constructions in raising public awareness and mobilizing action.
8. A Systematic Review of Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts in the Transport Sector
   This review assesses adaptation strategies to climate change impacts within the transport sector, identifying gaps and proposing future research directions.

📚 Foundational Reports and Resources

• IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) – Synthesis Report (2023)
  An integrated view of climate change, summarizing the latest scientific findings.
• IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) – Ongoing Work
  The IPCC is currently in its seventh assessment cycle, with new reports in development.
• UNSW Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC) – 2024 Annual Report
  Highlights recent research activities and collaborations focused on climate dynamics and extreme weather.

The floods and droughts devastating Australia are fingerprints of a warming planet

The Guardian - Kimberley Reid

It is undoubtedly clear that continuing to burn or export fossil fuels will increase climate change and the risk of extreme weather.

As NSW faces flooding again, Victorian towns enter stage 2 water restrictions. A woman and her dogs pictured paddling past an SES flooding sign on Friday. Photograph: Renee Moore/AAP

Author Dr Kimberley Reid is a postdoctoral research fellow in atmospheric sciences at the University of Melbourne

As New South Wales once again faces heavy rainfall and flooding, the Victorian towns of Euroa and Violet Town will enter stage 2 water restrictions next Wednesday.

The weather pattern bringing heavy rainfall to NSW is a common wet-weather scenario for the coast. A high-pressure system in the Tasman Sea has stalled, and the anticlockwise airflow around the high is pushing moist air from the ocean over land. At the same time, about three kilometres above the surface, a low-pressure system is lifting the moist ocean air up. As moist air rises, it forms clouds, storms, and finally rain.

While this weather pattern itself isn’t unusual, the duration of the pattern is. Typically, high pressure in the Tasman may hang around for one to two days. But the current high has been there for the past four days, bringing unrelenting rainfall to NSW. The rain is falling on already sodden ground, increasing the likelihood of flooding.

This is reminiscent of what we saw during the March 2021 floods. Unfortunately, the forecast for the next few days is also reminiscent of March 2021. After the rain from the east finally moves away, another strong band of rain is forecast to cross NSW from the west on Monday.

Scientists are actively researching how climate change is shaping Australia’s weather systems. We are not sure if weather systems will stall more often or not, mostly because we don’t yet have the computing power to run high-definition climate models needed to study them.

However, climate modelling capability is growing every year. Just last week, Australian climate scientists took part in a global hackathon to analyse data produced by models with about 50 times higher resolution than a typical one.

Earlier studies using lower definition models suggest we may see a decrease in stalled high pressure in the Tasman Sea, and low-pressure systems may also occur less often but produce more intense rainfall when they do happen.

While future high- and low-pressure systems are uncertain, atmospheric moisture is likely to increase in a warmer world.

"Australia’s climate targets are only as good as the action behind them. We need to aim higher Amanda McKenzie Read more

The March 2021 floods prompted my colleagues and me to assess how often Sydney may experience persistently high amounts of atmospheric moisture over the region.

High atmospheric moisture is a key ingredient in heavy rainfall. When it lingers, persistent rainfall and flooding become more likely.

We found that by 2080–2100, the chance of these high moisture events may increase by about 80% under both moderate and high emissions scenarios. With more moisture in the atmosphere, low-pressure systems could trigger more intense rain due to global heating.

As NSW sandbags, Adelaide is ramping up its desalination plant to secure the city’s water supply. Parts of South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, and Western Australia have received very much below average rainfall over summer and autumn.

One to five days of heavy rainfall per year can determine whether drought occurs in Australia, where drought is largely driven by a lack of these events.

Climate patterns in the Indian and Pacific Oceans — which influence year-to-year rainfall variability — have been in neutral or dry phases. Neither El Niño nor La Niña has appeared since autumn 2024. La Niña tried to emerge over summer but didn’t develop.

The visually spectacular northwest cloudband — capable of delivering rain from Broome to Hobart — has been absent this year. Instead, slow-moving high-pressure systems have brought persistently dry conditions to southern Australia.

NSW flooding: PM delivers climate crisis warning as flood-hit region braces for strong winds and fifth body found. Read more

Like flooding, drought frequency in a warming climate remains a leading area of research. Because droughts are rare, identifying trends is more difficult than for more regular indicators like maximum temperature.

The “tinderbox drought” of 2017–2019 was the first in Australia where the severity would not have been possible without global heating. 

In addition, southwest Australia has experienced a robust rainfall decline since the 1970s — a trend projected to continue.

Droughts and floods have long marked Australia’s psyche. But increasingly, the fingerprints of a warming planet are showing in more intense rainfall and more severe drought. 

Continuing to burn or export fossil fuels will only intensify the risk of extreme weather devastating Australia.

Links

• Climate change is supercharging rainfall and floods in Australia – Climate Council
• State of the Climate 2022 – CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology
• Australia’s black summer of fire was not normal – and we can prove it – The Conversation
• Droughts in Australia will become more severe with climate change, scientists say – ABC News
• Human influence on the 2019–2020 “Black Summer” extreme fire weather in eastern Australia – Geophysical Research Letters
• Explainer: Climate change and extreme weather in Australia – Climate Council
• Australia's climate targets are only as good as the action behind them – we need to aim higher 
  

The 89% Climate Solution

Substack — Stephen Leahy

A majority of people know climate change is a serious threat to our health. Time to act and vote accordingly.

Need-to-Know

The vast majority of the human population — 80 to 89% — want governments to do more about climate change.

That’s based on numerous peer-reviewed scientific studies.

However, most people are unaware of this because it hasn’t been widely reported in the media. 

In other words, the global climate majority does not realize it is the majority by far.

Loud, shouty people on digital forums give the impression that climate is a minor, even fringe concern, despite the overwhelming evidence of harm. 

Persistent and widespread disinformation is being pushed by vested interests in the fossil fuel industry and their extremist supporters to deny and delay efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions.

They also want to discourage people from insisting that the majority of people want more climate action by governments and industry.

And we want action now, not 2050!

Need-to-Know

75% of Americans understand climate change harms health, and the health risk is increasing.

In a brand new survey of Americans, 75% of registered voters want federal agencies to maintain or increase their efforts to protect people from the health harms of global warming.

The survey was conducted in December 2024—after the presidential election, but before the Trump administration took office. 

It is the latest Climate Change in the American Mind survey by George Mason University.

Many Americans understand that climate change harms health, and an increasing percentage believe climate-related health harms will become more common in their community over the next 10 years.

Americans who want federal agencies to increase their efforts to protect people outnumber those who want fewer efforts by more than 3 to 1.

Need-to-Know

Only a tiny minority of Americans want to see less climate action.

Some other results of the survey:

• 55% of registered voters said federal agencies should do more than they are currently doing to protect people from the health harms of global warming.

• 20% said agencies should continue to do the same amount, and only 15% said they should decrease their efforts.

Taken together, 75% of registered voters want federal agencies to maintain or increase their efforts to protect people from the health harms of global warming. (See NtK: Harmful Air Pollution is Getting Worse: Pollutants from Road Transportation and Wildfires on the Rise)  

Across the political spectrum, most registered voters want federal agencies to maintain or increase their efforts to protect people from the health harms of global warming.

Even more evidence

Last June, I wrote about the largest-ever global survey, which included over 73,000 people speaking 87 languages across 77 countries. 

It yielded similar results. 

For example, 86% of people want their countries to set aside geopolitical differences and collaborate on climate change. (See NtK: You are not alone. Most people in 77 countries want stronger, faster climate action.)

What can you do?

1. Share the fact that 80 to 89% of people around the world want more action on climate to protect our health and the health of our children.
   For example: “Did you know that the vast majority of people want their governments to reduce CO₂ emissions to protect their families’ health?”

2. Share this post on your social media.

3. Be confident that you are in the majority and are doing the right thing for your family and our shared home.

4. Vote for and support candidates who represent the climate majority.

Links

• A silent majority of the world’s people wants stronger climate action. It’s time to wake up
• Globally representative evidence on the actual and perceived support for climate action
• A majority of registered voters want federal agencies to increase their efforts to protect people from the health harms of global warming
• Climate Change in the American Mind: Public Perceptions of the Health Harms of Global Warming, Fall 2024
• Harmful Air Pollution is Getting Worse
• You are not alone. Most people in 77 countries want stronger, faster climate action
• 100% Renewable Energy for the World: Possible and It's Happening
  

Drowning in the Deluge: New South Wales Confronts a Flood Crisis Amidst Climate Change - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

New South Wales is reeling under one of its most destructive floods in decades.

Torrential rains have turned highways into rivers and townships into islands.

Entire communities, especially across the Hunter and Mid North Coast, have been cut off, emergency services stretched, and residents forced into evacuation centres.

Emergency services have performed more than 600 rescues. 

Four lives have been lost, and dozens remain unaccounted. 

Residents numbering in the tens of thousands are isolated, and critical infrastructure, from roads to power lines, lies in ruins.

The scale of destruction is immense, affecting humans, livestock, and the broader environment. 

Sydney’s Warragamba Dam, a crucial reservoir, is at 97% capacity, stoking fears of overflow and additional downstream flooding.

Is Climate Change to Blame?

Experts widely agree: yes.

The pattern of intensifying floods mirrors what climatologists have predicted for decades. 

Climate change is fueling more intense rainfall events by loading the atmosphere with moisture.

“This isn’t an act of nature alone—it’s a human-influenced catastrophe,” said one climate policy analyst. 

NSW’s own reconstruction authority warns that without adaptation, extreme weather events like these will only worsen.

NSW Floods May 2025

• Lives lost: 4 confirmed, several missing
• Communities affected: Over 50,000 residents cut off
• Livestock losses: Thousands, exact figures pending
• Estimated economic impact: Hundreds of millions (growing)
• Cause: Extreme rainfall exacerbated by climate change

Who Pays the Price?

The economic fallout is only beginning to be tallied. Insurance claims have surged beyond 1,600. 

Flood damage in NSW alone historically costs $250 million per year—but this event will far surpass that.

Farmers face wiped-out crops and drowned livestock. Businesses are shuttered. And public services—from hospitals to transit systems—are overwhelmed by both demand and damage.

Government Action: Swift but Sufficient?

Federal and state governments have triggered disaster recovery payments. 

Evacuation orders continue, especially in at-risk areas like Chipping Norton and the Hawkesbury region. 

But many residents feel these are band-aid solutions over long-term negligence.

There are also growing calls to accelerate infrastructure upgrades—levees, better drainage, and early-warning systems—to protect against worsening floods. 

The Insurance Council of Australia is urging a $30 billion investment to future-proof the nation’s flood defenses over the next decade.

Cleanup and the Road Ahead

The cleanup is just beginning and expected to take months. 

Roads are cracked and washed away. Coastal towns like Bellingen face landslides, power outages, and contaminated water. 

Public health warnings over pests and disease-carrying mosquitoes have already been issued.

The scale of environmental damage is harder to quantify—but equally devastating. Estuaries are polluted. Marine life is washing up dead. 

The stress on ecosystems may last for years.

Preventing the Next Disaster

Long-term resilience must be the new policy imperative. 

The NSW State Disaster Mitigation Plan (SDMP) is a step in that direction, aiming to unify disaster risk reduction efforts across government agencies.

But planning documents are only as good as the action they inspire. 

With rainfall intensifying and populations growing in flood-prone regions, the time to act is now—not after the next disaster.

Summary

The 2025 NSW floods are a tragic case study in the cost of climate inaction. 

While emergency responses are vital, building lasting resilience will require political will, public investment, and cultural readiness to confront a future shaped by climate extremes.

Links

• Death toll in Australia floods rises to four
• Floodwaters isolate towns in NSW
• Live updates: NSW flood emergency
• NSW Government: Climate adaptation planning
• NSW flood impact and climate
• Insurers call for $30B flood defense fund

Australia’s Climate Reckoning: Listening, Witnessing, Acting - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

We are being called to attention.
Not by politicians, not by policy papers.
But by rivers that have burst their banks and swallowed whole towns.
By whales giving birth where they shouldn’t.
By rainforests becoming deserts.
By the uneasy silence that follows a summer storm when what should be relief tastes of dread.

Insight: Climate change in so-called Australia is no longer a future threat. It is here, now, shaping the lives and land we inhabit.

A Nation in Disruption

In New South Wales, floods have ravaged the land once more. Over 48,000 people isolated. 23,000 homes impacted. Taree. Gloucester. Port Macquarie. Familiar names, now echoing with grief.

In Tasmania, ancient kelp forests are vanishing. Marine heatwaves push them to extinction. Forests burn where they once thrived. And whales? They calve where they never have before—lost, maybe listening.

Warning: These are not isolated weather events. They are ecological tipping points. The systems we depend on are beginning to unravel.

Politics, Policy, and the Truth Between the Lines

Australia’s political terrain is shifting. The Coalition has split over energy. One side pushes nuclear, another solar. But deeper still lies the question: What kind of future are we choosing? And who is that future for?

We’ve committed to a 43% emissions cut by 2030, with net zero by 2050. Is it enough? Targets mean little without justice, integrity, or cultural truth-telling.

Minister Penny Wong notes we contribute “just over 1%” of global emissions. But what of our exported coal and gas? Our wealth, our legacy? We cannot look away from our impact.

The Earth is Speaking. Will We Listen?

Australia has already warmed more than 1.5°C. The CSIRO warns of more: more heat, more floods, more fire. Microbial ecosystems—foundations of life—are being lost.

We are not separate from this. We are it.

Call to Action: Grief and action can co-exist. Begin with honesty. Stay with discomfort. Let your life become a response to what the Earth is asking of us.

What Now?

Let us not wait for more loss. We can step beyond growth-at-all-costs and into deeper connection—with Country, with each other, with spirit.

This is our moment. To witness. To rise.

Because climate change is not just a scientific crisis. It is a moral one. A spiritual one. A test of whether we can remember how to belong

Links  

• NSW Flood Emergency: 48,000 People Cut Off as Torrential Rains Return
• Tasmania’s Kelp Forests Disappear as Climate Tipping Points Escalate
• Baby Whales Sighted Far South of Normal Calving Grounds: Researchers Alarmed
• Australia’s Climate Policy Tracker 2025: Progress and Pitfalls
• Penny Wong Urges Pacific Patience While Highlighting China’s Climate Role
• Snapshot: Australia Has Warmed Beyond 1.5°C – What That Means
• CSIRO: Climate Change Trends and Projections for Australia
• Microbial Collapse in Australian Lagoons Linked to Warming and Salinity

Sea level rise will cause ‘catastrophic inland migration’, scientists warn

The Guardian - Damian Carrington Environment editor

Rising oceans will force millions away from coasts even if global temperature rise remains below 1.5C, analysis finds

The loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has quadrupled since the 1990s.
Photograph: Bernhard Staehli/Shutterstock

Sea level rise will become unmanageable at just 1.5C of global heating and lead to “catastrophic inland migration”, the scientists behind a new study have warned. 

This scenario may unfold even if the average level of heating over the last decade of 1.2C continues into the future.

The loss of ice from the giant Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has quadrupled since the 1990s due to the climate crisis and is now the principal driver of sea level rise.

The international target to keep global temperature rise below 1.5C is already almost out of reach. 

But the new analysis found that even if fossil fuel emissions were rapidly slashed to meet it, sea levels would be rising by 1cm a year by the end of the century, faster than the speed at which nations could build coastal defences.

The world is on track for 2.5C-2.9C of global heating, which would almost certainly be beyond tipping points for the collapse of the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets. The melting of those ice sheets would lead to a “really dire” 12 metres of sea level rise.

Today, about 230 million people live within 1 metre above current sea level, and 1 billion live within 10 metres above sea level. 

Even just 20cm of sea level rise by 2050 would lead to global flood damages of at least $1tn a year for the world’s 136 largest coastal cities and huge impacts on people’s lives and livelihoods.

However, the scientists emphasised that every fraction of a degree of global heating avoided by climate action still matters, because it slows sea level rise and gives more time to prepare, reducing human suffering.

The century of climate migration:
why we need to plan for the great upheaval

Read more

Sea level rise is the biggest long-term impact of the climate crisis, and research in recent years has shown it is occurring far faster than previously estimated. 

The 1.5C limit was seen as a way to avoid the worst consequences of global heating, but the new research shows this is not the case for sea level rise.

The researchers said the “safe limit” temperature for ice sheets was hard to estimate but was likely to be 1C or lower. 

Sea level rise of at least 1-2 metres was now inevitable, the scientists said. In the UK, just 1 metre of sea level rise would see large parts of the Fens and Humberside below sea level.

“What we mean by safe limit is one which allows some level of adaptation, rather than catastrophic inland migration and forced migration, and the safe limit is roughly 1cm a year of sea level rise,” said Prof Jonathan Bamber of the University of Bristol in the UK. 

“If you get to that, then it becomes extremely challenging for any kind of adaptation, and you’re going to see massive land migration on scales that we’ve never witnessed in modern civilisation.” 

Developing countries such as Bangladesh would fare far worse than rich ones with experience of holding back the waves, such as the Netherlands, he said.

Durham University’s Prof Chris Stokes, lead author of the study, said: “We’re starting to see some of the worst-case scenarios play out almost in front of us. 

"At current warming of 1.2C, sea level rise is accelerating at rates that, if they continue, would become almost unmanageable before the end of this century, [which is] within the lifetime of our young people.”

The average global temperature hit 1.5C for the first time in 2024. But the international target is measured as the average over 20 years, so is not considered to have been broken yet.

Greenland losing 30m tonnes of ice
an hour, study reveals Read more

The new study, published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, combined data from studies of warm periods up to 3m years ago; observations of ice melting and sea level rise in recent decades; and climate models. 

It concluded: “Continued mass loss from ice sheets poses an existential threat to the world’s coastal populations.”

Prof Andrea Dutton of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who was part of the study team, said: “Evidence recovered from past warm periods suggests that several metres of sea level rise – or more – can be expected when global mean temperature reaches 1.5C or higher.”

At the end of the last ice age, about 15,000 years ago, the sea level was rising at 10 times the rate today, driven by self-reinforcing feedbacks that may have been triggered by only a small increase in temperature. 

The last time CO₂ levels in the atmosphere were as high as today, about 3m years ago, sea level rise was 10-20 metres higher.

Even if humanity can bring the planet back to its preindustrial temperature by removing CO₂ from the atmosphere, it will still take hundreds to thousands of years for the ice sheets to recover, the researchers said. That means land lost to sea level rise will remain lost for a long time, perhaps until the Earth enters the next ice age.

Belize moved its capital inland in 1970 after a devastating hurricane, but its largest city is still on the coast and will be inundated with only 1 metre of sea level rise, Carlos Fuller, Belize’s longtime climate negotiator, said: 

“Findings such as these only sharpen the need to remain within the 1.5C Paris agreement limit, or as close as possible, so we can return to lower temperatures and protect our coastal cities.”

Links

• Only strong action on emissions can restore economic stability, UN climate chief says
• Total collapse of vital Atlantic currents unlikely this century, study finds
• Waves are getting bigger. Is the world ready?
• Science Weekly: Is it time to try geoengineering? – podcast
• Activate climate’s ‘silent majority’ to supercharge action, experts say
• Sliver of cool surface water 2mm deep helps oceans absorb CO2, say scientists
• ‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation
• ‘Spiral of silence’: climate action is very popular, so why don’t people realise it?