Three reasons why the climate crisis must reshape how we think about war

The Conversation - Duncan Depledge

Rawpixel.com / Shutterstock

Author Duncan Depledge is Senior Lecturer in Geopolitics and Security, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, England.

Earth’s average temperature rose more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2024 for the first time – a critical threshold in the climate crisis. At the same time, major armed conflicts continue to rage in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and elsewhere.

What should be increasingly clear is that war now needs to be understood as unfolding in the shadow of climate breakdown.

The relationship between war and climate change is complex. But here are three reasons why the climate crisis must reshape how we think about war. 

1. War exacerbates climate change

The inherent destructiveness of war has long degraded the environment. But we have only recently become more keenly aware of its climatic implications.

This follows efforts primarily by researchers and civil society organisations to account for the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from fighting, most notably in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as to record emissions from all military operations and post-war reconstruction.

One study, conducted by Scientists for Global Responsibility and the Conflict and Environment Observatory, has made a best guess that the total carbon footprint of militaries across the globe is greater than that of Russia, which currently has the fourth-largest footprint in the world.

The US is believed to have the highest military emissions. Estimates by UK-based researchers Benjamin Neimark, Oliver Belcher and Patrick Bigger suggest that, if it were a country, the US military would be the 47th-largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. This would put it between Peru and Portugal.

These studies, though, rest on limited data. Sometimes partial emissions data is reported by military agencies, and researchers have to supplement this with their own calculations using official government figures and those of associated industries.

There is also significant variation from country to country. Some military emissions, most notably those of China and Russia, have proved almost impossible to assess.

The US military is one of the largest polluters in history. Jeffrey Groeneweg / EPA

Wars can also put international cooperation on climate change and the energy transition at risk. Since the start of the Ukraine war, for instance, scientific cooperation between the west and Russia in the Arctic has broken down. This has prevented crucial climate data from being compiled.

Critics of militarism argue that the acknowledgement of war’s contribution to the climate crisis ought to be the moment of reckoning for those who are too willing to spend vast resources on maintaining and expanding military power. Some even believe that demilitarisation is the only way out of climate catastrophe.

Others are less radical. But the crucial point is that recognition of the climate costs of war increasingly raises moral and practical questions about the need for more strategic restraint and whether the business of war can ever be rendered less environmentally destructive.

2. Climate change demands military responses

Before the impact of war on the climate came into focus, researchers debated whether the climate crisis could act as a “threat multiplier”. This has led some to argue that climate change could intensify the risk of violence in parts of the world already under stress from food and water insecurity, internal tensions, poor governance and territorial disputes.

Some conflicts in the Middle East and Sahel have already been labelled “climate wars”, implying they may not have happened if it were not for the stresses of climate change. Other researchers have shown how such claims are deeply contentious. Any decision to engage in violence or go to war is always still a choice made by people, not the climate.

Harder to contest is the observation that the climate crisis is leading militaries to be deployed with greater frequency to assist with civilian emergencies. This encompasses a wide range of activities from combating wildfires to reinforcing flood defences, assisting with evacuations, conducting search-and-rescue operations, supporting post-disaster recovery and delivering humanitarian aid.

Chinese soldiers stacking sandbags in a flooded area of Hebei province. chinahbzyg / Shutterstock

Whether the climate crisis will result in more violence and armed conflict in the future is impossible to predict. If it does, military force may need to be deployed more frequently. At the same time, if militaries are depended upon to help respond to the growing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters, their resources will be further stretched.

Governments will be confronted with tough choices about what kinds of tasks should be prioritised and whether military budgets should be increased at the expense of other societal needs.

3. Armed forces will need to adapt

With geopolitical tensions rising and the number of conflicts increasing, it seems unlikely that calls for demilitarisation will be met any time soon. This leaves researchers with the uncomfortable prospect of having to rethink how military force can – and ought to be – wielded in a world simultaneously trying to adapt to accelerating climate change and escape its deep dependence on fossil fuels.

The need to prepare military personnel and adapt bases, equipment and other infrastructure to withstand and operate effectively in increasingly extreme and unpredictable climatic conditions is a matter of growing concern. In 2018, two major hurricanes in the US caused more than US$8 billion (£5.95 billion) worth of damage to military infrastructure.

My own research has demonstrated how, in the UK at least, there is growing awareness among some defence officials that militaries need to think carefully about how they will navigate the major changes unfolding in the global energy landscape that are being brought about by the energy transition.

Militaries are being confronted with a stark choice. They can either remain as one of the last heavy users of fossil fuels in an increasingly low-carbon world or be part of an energy transition that will probably have significant implications for how military force is generated, deployed and sustained.

What is becoming clear is that operational effectiveness will increasingly depend on how aware militaries are of the implications of climate change for future operations. It will also hinge on how effectively they have adapted their capabilities to cope with more extreme climatic conditions and how much they have managed to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.

Soldiers delivering humanitarian aid. photos_adil / Shutterstock

In the early 19th century, the Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz famously argued that while war’s nature rarely changes, its character is almost constantly evolving with the times.

Recognising the scale and reach of the climate crisis will be essential if we are now to make sense of why and how future wars will be waged, as well as how some might be averted or rendered less destructive.

Links

• Militarism: A Leading Cause of Environmental and Climate Crises
• Estimating the Military’s Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Threat Multiplier: Climate, Military Leadership, and the Fight for Global Security
• Military Responses to Climate Hazards
• Global Peace Index 2025
• The Utility of Force

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Diesel rebates for miners and a new EV tax? Australia’s climate policy double-think

Lyrebird Dreaming - Gregory Andrews

Author Gregory Andrews is: Founder and Managing Director of Lyrebird Dreaming A former Australian Ambassador and High Commissioner in West Africa Australia’s first Threatened Species Commissioner A leader in Indigenous policy

What?!

Australia gives big miners billions in refunds each year for burning diesel.

And now our government wants to tax EV drivers?

If that feels upside-down to you, you’re not alone. Let’s unpack what’s actually happening.

What the “diesel rebate” really is (and why it’s so big)

Australia’s Fuel Tax Credits (FTC) scheme is a massive rebate program for diesel that’s used off public roads (think mine sites and machinery) and for heavy vehicles on public roads (think trucks).

These diesel users get a taxpayer-funded discount for every litre they burn.

The scheme is enormous. Treasury’s own statements and independent analysis put its annual cost at $10 billion a year, with mining companies pocketing the lion’s share.

The Australia Institute estimates $9.6 billion in 2023–24, with over $1 billion apiece going to iron ore and coal every year. ATO data confirms mining is the largest beneficiary.

Is that a fossil-fuel subsidy? (By United Nations and OECD rules, yes.)

This is where definitions and seeing through the spin and greenwashing matters. Our government ties itself in knots pretending this isn’t a fossil fuel subsidy.

But the OECD says it is. It counts not only cash handouts but also tax expenditures - like rebates and exemptions - as “fossil fuel support”.

The environment sees it that way too! The global climate doesn’t care what names our government uses, this scheme clearly promotes burning fossil fuels.

The OECD has urged Australia to reduce or eliminate fuel-tax exemptions for heavy vehicles and machinery. The International Energy Agency also recognises diesel rebates as a subsidy.

By international norms – and the G20 pledge Australia signed up to – our diesel rebates are squarely subsidies.

Meanwhile: Canberra is gearing up to tax EVs for road use

Back in October 2023 the High Court struck down Victoria’s state-based EV road-user charge as an unconstitutional “excise”, reserving that power for the Commonwealth.

That put the ball in Canberra’s court.

Fast-forward to August 2025: after the recent economic reform roundtable, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said there’s “a surprising degree of consensus” to introduce road-user charging, starting with EVs.

State and territory treasurers are due to consider an options paper this month. It’s not legislated yet, but the policy direction is clear.

So yes, the plan is to charge EVs first while still subsidising diesel for miners.

The government says it’s about fairness – that everyone should “pay their share”. But what about mining companies paying their share for the impacts of climate collapse?!

To be fair, the government has made EVs cheaper: the Electric Car FBT exemption has been in place since July 2022. New Vehicle Efficiency Standards are incentivising cleaner cars. But these policies will be undercut if EVs get a new tax. And most new vehicles on the road are still fossil-fuelled.

The bigger picture (and a better path)

Here’s the inconsistency: internationally we pledged in 2009 to phase out inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies. And our net-zero plans rely on rapid electrification.

Instead of getting fossil fuel subsidies down, our government pretends they don’t exist. And now, while it keeps subsidising diesel, it’s preparing to target EVs with an extra charge.

That’s backwards.

There’s a more coherent way to do this:

1. Call diesel rebates what they are - a multi-billion dollar fossil-fuel subsidy scheme.
2. Set a timetable to wind back diesel rebates, especially in mining. Even industry voices like Andrew Forrest have suggested this to kick-start alternatives.
3. Design one neutral, national road-funding model. If Australia goes to road-user charging, it should apply to all vehicles as the fuel excise declines - so we’re not double-taxing petrol cars or singling out EVs.
4. Hold the line on EV incentives until parity. Keep the FBT exemption for battery-electric cars in the near term, align it with the efficiency standard, and set a clear review point tied to price parity and uptake - not an arbitrary date.
5. Put justice and place first. Use the savings to fund charging in regional, remote, and First Nations communities. That’s how the transition can stay fair while cutting real tonnes.

Bottom line

Yes, Australia needs to fund roads. But taxing EVs first while rebating diesel at a massive scale is like charging people to bring reusable bags to Woolies or Coles while giving the plastic ones away for free.

If we’re serious about a safe climate and a productive and prosperous Australia, we should urgently phase out fossil-era tax breaks and implement technology-neutral road funding. In that order.

Links

• Debunking 'division' on climate change - Gregory Andrews
• What! Culling Koalas in Response to Climate Change? - Gregory Andrews
• More Scientific Evidence that Climate Change is Accelerating - Gregory Andrews
• Tree planting not a panacea on climate change - Gregory Andrews
• Climate change denial and toxic masculinity - Gregory Andrews
• Climate change denial: Lies work! - Gregory Andrews

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Military experts warn of climate wars - Julian Cribb

Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb

AUTHOR

Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

“Accelerating climate disruption is the greatest threat to the human future: our safety and wellbeing, our homes and communities, and how and where we live and work,” a group of leading Australian military and security experts says.

The Australian Security Leaders Climate Group (ASLCG) warns that climate impacts are accelerating faster than expected, at a time when global miliary alliances are ‘in turmoil’, creating a far more dangerous world.

“This risks Australia being dragged into a war with China on the losing side,” the Group, which consists of former military and intelligence top brass, said with devastating bluntness.

“Australia needs a contemporary framing of security that places the biggest threat to our future — climate disruption — at the centre of defense and foreign policy,” it said in ‘A climate-first foreign policy for Australia’.

The report is one of the most honest statements to emerge from the traditionally circumspect security hierarchy anywhere in the world. It applies not only to Australia but to most countries.

It follows ‘Too Hot to Handle’, the Group’s previous admonition on the security threat posed by climate, released in May 2024. This was cold-shouldered by the Albanese Government, which has recently sanctioned a further 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon emissions from coal.

The ASLCG leadership mounts a serious broadside. It includes former Australian Defence chief Admiral Chris Barrie, former Dept of Defence preparedness director Cheryl Durant, former Deputy Chief of the Royal Australian Air Force John Blackburn, and Ian Dunlop, the former chair of the Australian Coal Association.

“We are heading towards levels of warming that will not support humanity as we know it. There will be widespread food insecurity, economic destabilisation, large-scale people displacement, war, failed states and social collapse for which Australia and the world are almost totally unprepared,” they say.

“Climate risks are global, cascading and systemic, and not containable within borders, so the response requires unprecedented international cooperation and a collective mobilisation of resources unprecedented in peacetime to protect humanity’s future.”

The Australian study stands in strident contrast to developments in the US where Trump has gagged the Pentagon, along with other government departments, from even mentioning the word climate. In previous studies US security and defence agencies saw climate as a major security threat. 

Now there are warnings that the US is arming itself for a world that does not exist in reality. These are augmenting perceptions among its former allies that the US is now an untrustworthy friend – and global relationships need to be rethought.

Europe, by contrast, is far more open in acknowledging the military threat posed by climate change, and building it into its defence and diplomatic strategies. 

“Climate change is an accelerator and multiplier of disasters, instability and conflict, requiring European forces to adapt to operations in a changing climate. The increasing risks from climate change mean that it is shifting from being solely a human security threat to a national security threat, both to Europe and to its strategic interests,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies said.

These postures point to the possibility of a major global strategic realignment, with the climate-denying axis led by the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other petrostates on one side and the ‘realists’ led by Europe, Canada, Australia, Japan and China on the other. 

Thus, a new Cold War between the Fossil states and a Green Alliance looms – a fight for the human future.

Setting aside the old political friction points for a moment, China is now the unchallenged global leader in green energy, having installed around 40 per cent of global capacity so far. 

In 2024, its green energy investment topped $818 billion. 

Electric cars, trains, batteries, panels, devices, drones and robots are the bow wave in its transformation to a green, low-carbon electro-economy that will leave the fossil-run US beached like a Basilosaurus.

China is often criticised for continuing to burn coal. It remains the world’s largest coal burner and carbon emitter – but that is changing, fast: coal supplies around 56% of grid power now, down from 90%, and renewables are up to 41%. 

The Chinese oil and gas giant Sinopec anticipates Chinese coal consumption to peak this year and carbon emissions to peak before 2030. 

Parallelling this is spectacular growth in the country’s hydrogen economy.

Whether this track record is enough to make China hegemon of a global green alliance is still open to question – but one fact is unarguable: China is the world frontrunner in electric cars, photovoltaic cells and batteries. 

Anyone who wants to transform to the low carbon economy (as well as save money) will find Chinese technology essential.

China’s switch to green energy will also reduce its dependence on imported Russian oil, and India is likely to follow suit, placing both giants increasingly in the green camp. 

This will strike a heavy blow to global coal and oil exports – and any country that depends on them.

The ASLCG report correctly reads the tectonic shifts now taking place in global geopolitics. 

Its formula for a climate-first foreign and defence policy is one that every country now needs to absorb:

1. Commitment to deep cooperation with nations that prioritise climate disruption risks, with climate-focused agreements on tax, trade, technology, finance, equity and the like.
2. Diplomatic leadership in high-ambition alliances, such as agreements: to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and international financing; to phase out the fossil fuel economy; and for a regional economic climate mobilisation.
3. Understanding the risks with mandated and regular climate-related security risk assessments, with outcomes shared with neighbours.
4. Full integration of climate risk into defence and security planning, humanitarian response, and conflict prevention efforts.
5. Greater support for vulnerable and frontline nations, increased climate finance and leadership legal frameworks to address climate displacement and migration.

The ASLCG report is a trailblazing vision of where an enlightened, informed and caring humanity might go in the face of the brutal escalation in climate impacts. 

It does not canvass the full catastrophic crisis facing humanity by any means. 

But, on its ground, it is a realistic and pragmatic call for a new way to envision our future – and opens the mind to prospects for a new Global Order to bring it about.

Links

• The great dying – Julian Cribb
• Humanity is risking catastrophe, UN warns – Julian Cribb
• The great human brain fade… – Julian Cribb Julian Cribb Substack
• Julian Cribb Official Website 
• What is the Polycrisis?- Scientific American

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Brisbane 2050: Climate’s Crossroads - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points
Temperatures may rise by up to 4°C by 2050 [6] Days above 35°C will more than triple by 2050 [2] Sea levels could rise by up to 0.8m this century [11] Extreme fire weather days will sharply increase [16] Brisbane City Council aims for net zero by 2035 [5]

Brisbane faces a hotter, drier, and more uncertain climate by mid-century.

It will be shaped by the growing force of climate change ^[15].

By 2050, Brisbane will experience hotter days, more extreme weather, sea level rise, ecological shifts, economic disruptions and new cultural challenges ^[15].

Here is what science, policy and society say about the path ahead ^[15].

Hotter Days, Longer Heatwaves

Brisbane’s summers will be hotter ^[15].

Average annual temperatures are expected to rise by 1.2°C to 2.1°C by 2050, depending on emissions policy ^[11].

There may be three times as many days over 35°C, with the city potentially facing several weeks of dangerous heat rather than a handful each year ^[12].

Nights above 25°C will also become more common, reducing relief and increasing health risks ^[12].

Heatwaves will pose a particular hazard for vulnerable groups: the elderly, children, those with chronic illness ^[15].

More Extreme Fire Weather

Brisbane’s future climate will be marked by more severe bushfire conditions ^[15].

Hotter, drier seasons will fuel harsher fire weather, increasing the likelihood that the city’s fringe and regional landscapes will see extreme fire days and longer seasons ^[14].

Scientists predict major increases in fire risk, with councils and emergency services needing more resources and adaptive infrastructure ^[14].

Changing Rainfall, Intense Downpours

Rainfall variability will remain high, but annual rainfall may decrease slightly by mid-century ^[11].

Most of the reduction is likely in winter and spring, while summer and autumn patterns may stay relatively stable ^[11].

One concerning trend is the expected rise in short, intense downpours, with extreme rainfall events likelier and stronger ^[1].

These changes will challenge water management, urban drainage, farming, and emergency response ^[1].

Rising Sea Level and Coastal Risks

Projections suggest a sea level rise of about 26 cm by 2050 for Brisbane’s coast ^[11].

Suburbs, wetlands and infrastructure, including parts of Brisbane Airport, Boondall Wetlands, Albion, Sandgate, and Port of Brisbane, risk inundation, storm surge and erosion ^[11].

These impacts threaten not just homes and public assets but vital hubs ^[1].

Economic Impacts and Industry Risks

Brisbane’s economy, built on services and tourism, will experience new stresses ^[1].

Higher temperatures, storms, floods and fires may disrupt supply chains, raise insurance costs, threaten workplaces and decrease productivity ^[1].

The agricultural sector may face greater water stress, crop heat damage, and more frequent pest outbreaks ^[1].

Tourism, reliant on local natural assets, could suffer as bushfires and extreme weather damage sites and deter visitors ^[1].

Social and Health Strains

Climate change will shape daily life as heatwaves and extremes challenge social cohesion, health, and wellbeing ^[1].

Heat stress and dehydration will increase, particularly among the elderly and disadvantaged ^[1].

Mental health services will encounter higher demand, especially in rural and regional areas ^[1].

Communities will need adaptive public spaces, “cool zones”, and proactive support networks ^[1].

Political Action: Council Targets and Gaps

Brisbane City Council aims to cut emissions by 30% by 2032 (from 2016-17), and reach net zero by 2050 ^[5].

Actions include LED street lighting, solar, net zero buses, recycling and local investment in emissions reduction ^[5].

Still, scientists warn current policy trajectories aren’t enough to prevent dangerous warming ^[16].

Queensland still approves new coal and gas, and lacks robust plans for adaptation ^[16].

Ecology and Biodiversity: Threats to Icons

Brisbane’s rainforests, wetlands, and marine environments are at risk ^[1].

Higher temperatures and less rainfall will stress urban vegetation, with many local species losing habitat ^[1].

Moreton Bay Marine Park and wetlands may suffer rising seas and warming waters, threatening migratory species and fragile ecosystems ^[1].

Efforts to create wildlife corridors and preserve biodiversity are underway, but climate stresses may outpace adaptation ^[1].

Culture and Community: Defining a New Normal

Cultural identity and rituals will change as residents respond to more frequent climate events ^[1].

Floods and bushfires influence festivals, sports and daily patterns ^[1].

Artists, writers, educators and Indigenous leaders will engage with climate themes, inspiring resilience and sustainability ^[1].

The Road Forward: Action Required

By 2050, Brisbane’s climate will be hotter, more turbulent and unpredictable ^[1].

If local and state leaders move fast, including halting fossil fuel, boosting adaptation, and investing in green solutions, the worst impacts might be avoided ^[16].

Otherwise, the new normal will bring disruption, loss and relentless adaptation ^[1].

The city stands at a crossroads, not just of technical solutions, but of collective will and culture ^[16].

References

1. Climate Change in South East Queensland – Impact Summary (Queensland Government)
2. How Hot Will Your Neighbourhood Be by 2050 (Climate Council)
3. Moreton Bay Foundation: Sea Level, Ecosystems
4. Queensland Climate Change Science
5. Brisbane City Council: Climate Action
6. Moreton Bay Foundation: Temperature and Rainfall
7. Mapping Sea Level Rises in Brisbane (Reddit)
8. Climate Council: Disaster Ground Zero

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Darwin 2050: Scorching Days and Rising Seas - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Darwin faces up to 4°C rise by mid century [2] Days above 35°C may exceed 100 annually [1] Sea level rise threatens sacred sites and housing [5] Heat stress undermines health and productivity [3] Adaptation demands urgent coordinated policy [6]

Darwin is edging closer to a climate breaking point as heat intensifies and seas rise.

The city already sweats through longer and more intense heat waves.

This is only the beginning.

By 2050 average temperatures may rise up to 4°C ^[2].

Days above 35°C which numbered about 12 per year before 2000 could top well over 100 by the 2030s ^[1].

The CSIRO warns of up to a fourfold increase in such hot days if emissions continue at the present rate ^[1].

Prolonged heat events will drive up hospital admissions especially for chronic illnesses and place pressure on Darwin’s power and water supplies ^[3].

Fire Rain and Weather Wildness

Heat will fuel bushfire risks in the Top End’s rural fringe.

While the wet season will persist rainfall patterns are set to become increasingly erratic amplifying both drought and deluge ^[4].

Short tropical downpours may intensify, causing flash floods across low-lying suburbs.

The Bureau of Meteorology notes Darwin may resemble Jabiru’s hotter drier build-ups and stormier wet seasons ^[4].

A City at the Shoreline

Sea level rise is no longer theoretical in Darwin’s suburbs.

By 2050 coastal inundation and tidal flooding will reshape foreshore development degrade mangrove buffers and threaten Indigenous sacred sites ^[5].

The Larrakia people face profound loss if culturally significant places erode or drown.

Tourism assets like beach markets and waterfront precincts will demand costly adaptation, while insurance for coastal homes grows increasingly unaffordable.

Social and Economic Disruption

Without serious intervention, Darwin’s economy will feel the heat as much as its streets.

More frequent heat stress days reduce worker productivity and increase operational costs across sectors ^[1][5].

Cattle stations and agriculture will contend with new diseases shifting rainfall and biosecurity threats.

Low income residents often without air conditioning face disproportionate health risks, widening Darwin’s social divide ^[1].

Economic modelling forecasts sharp upticks in cooling health and productivity costs without accelerated action ^[1][2].

Cities and Countryside Culture and Community

As Darwin absorbs rising migrant populations, housing stress compounds especially for First Nations people already facing inequity.

Social practices like night markets and outdoor festivals face interruptions as nighttime minimums rise ^[3].

In the bush fire management becomes more complex requiring blends of Indigenous knowledge and Western firefighting.

Political and Policy Crossroads

The City of Darwin declared a climate emergency in 2019 and targets net-zero by 2040 ^[1].

Local government invests in green shading tree planting and cool roofs with CSIRO collaborations ^[1].

The Northern Territory Climate Change Response envisions net-zero by 2050, but critics argue it lags what is required ^[6].

Environmental advocates call for legislating 100 per cent renewables and rapid infrastructure upgrades ^[6].

Coordinated adaptation across energy water housing and health will determine Darwin’s resilience ^[2][6][1].

The Path to 2050: What Must Change

Darwin’s choices today will either blunt or intensify tomorrow’s hardship.

Scientists insist halving emissions by 2030 and embedding heat reflective and nature based solutions are essential ^[2][6].

Failing to act will transform the city into a test case of global inaction, with each degree amplifying losses ^[2][1].

But bold interventions blending Indigenous knowledge, science, and community engagement could make Darwin a global model of resilience ^[1][2][3].

References

1. Darwin’s projected days above 35°C and climate overview
2. Urban heat islands and adaptation in Darwin
3. Heatwaves and health impacts
4. Seasonal and rainfall projections for Darwin
5. Sea level rise and coastal impacts
6. Required climate action and advocacy in the NT

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Perth 2050: On the Climate Frontline - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Twice as many days above 35 °C by 2050 [1] Winter rainfall to drop up to 29% [2] Sea level rise of 24–30 cm locked in [3] Heat-related deaths could rise >60% [4] Hospital admissions from heat to surge [5] High fire danger days up ~40% [6] Government target, net zero by 2050 [7] Residents concerned about inaction [8]

By 2050, Perth will face hotter temperatures, longer heatwaves, more dangerous fire weather, falling winter rain, and a rising sea level.

This will reshape every facet of life across social, economic, and cultural domains in Perth.^[1][2][3]

The city's climate trajectory hinges on stronger action.

As of 2025, climate policies lag behind the urgency of scientific warnings, with net-zero ambitions needing tougher, faster implementation to avert the harshest future impacts.^[7][8]

The New Heat Era

Perth’s future is set to blaze.

By 2050, the city is projected to endure twice as many days over 35 °C each year, with extreme heat likely to stretch for a whole month or more each summer.^[1]

Average temperatures will rise by 1.7–2 °C or more, depending on emissions trajectory, with heatwaves becoming longer, more intense, and deadlier.^[2]

Water Scarcity and Drought

Winter and spring rainfall are forecast to drop by up to 29% by mid-century in a high emissions scenario.^[2]

The drying trend that’s gripped south-western WA since the 1970s shows no sign of abating.

Heavy rain events may become more intense, but extended droughts will also unravel, reducing inflow into dams, stressing agriculture, and threatening water security.

Rising Seas and Coastal Risk

Sea levels in Perth are locked in to climb 24–30 cm by 2050, even if emissions fall sharply now.^[3]

Iconic beaches, river foreshores, and low-lying suburbs such as Elizabeth Quay and sections of East Perth face mounting inundation, a new frontline in the city’s adaptation challenge.

During storms, coastal flooding will intensify, threatening infrastructure and property, with hundreds of homes at future risk.^[3]

Hotter, Longer Fire Seasons

Climate change will bring about 40% more days of very high fire danger in Perth by 2050.^[6]

Bushfires will start earlier, burn longer, and cover larger areas.

The city will need a dramatic ramp-up of firefighting resources, community preparedness, and hazard reduction strategies to keep pace.

Health and Social Impacts

Heat-related deaths in Perth are projected to rise by more than 60%, with those over 75 most at risk.^[4]

Hospital admissions for heat events are set to surge by an estimated 34%, costing the healthcare system over $30 million annually and straining stretched resources.^[5]

Vulnerable communities, including the elderly, outdoor workers, and those in poorly insulated housing, face elevated health risks and financial hardship.

Economic Fallout

Perth’s famed outdoor lifestyle and livability will come under threat.

Agricultural supply chains, vital for food and jobs, face disruption from heatwaves and water shortages.

Tourism, recreation, and sectors reliant on green spaces all risk decline, unless urgent measures are undertaken to make the city climate-resilient and inclusive.

Insurance premiums are forecast to rise as extreme weather claims climb, coastal businesses must brace for flooding and erosion.

Political Pace and Public Sentiment

In 2025, government policy targets net zero emissions by 2050—but action is slow and fragmented.^[7]

Less than half of Perth’s residents believe current climate strategies will be enough.^[8]

Decarbonisation of the grid, expansion of public transport, urban greening, and stricter building codes are essential but lagging.

Political debate is heated, with increasing demand for bolder leadership and faster adaptation plans focusing on community resilience and renewable energy.

Ecological Transformation

As heat intensifies and rainfall drops, urban tree canopy and native biodiversity are under threat.

Coastal erosion will reshape beaches and foreshore habitats, marine environments will warm and acidify, pressuring fisheries and ecosystems.

A new “urban greenbelt” movement is taking shape, with communities pushing to expand tree cover, restore habitat corridors, and bolster local food production.

Cultural Shifts and Community Response

Perth’s culture is already evolving in response to climate anxieties.

Residents increasingly call for adaptation through sustainable design, climate-resilient infrastructure, and more equitable access to green spaces.^[8]

There is rising activism among youth, artists, and Indigenous leaders seeking to integrate tradition and technology, demanding a safer, cleaner, and fairer future for all.

The Western Australian Government’s urban greening strategy remains a battleground for public advocacy and policy improvement.

Climate Action: Then and Now

At present, Perth’s climate actions are promising but insufficient.

The State Government commits to net zero by 2050, but renewable adoption rates remain among Australia’s lowest, and political debate clouds bolder interim targets.

Residents and experts agree that only rapid, deep emission cuts, robust climate adaptation, and far-reaching social investment will shield Perth from becoming increasingly “unliveable”.^[8]

Perth’s climate is on a knife edge—on action taken between now and 2030 depends whether its future is merely hotter and harder, or the vanguard of global sustainability.

References

1. Climate Council, How hot will your neighbourhood be by 2050
2. WA Government, Western Australian Climate Projections, Summary
3. Climate Impacts Tracker, Sea Level Rise in Australia
4. WA Health, Projecting Heat-related Health Impacts under Climate Change in Perth
5. Committee for Perth, Perth 2050 Report
6. Climate Council, Extreme Heat and Bushfires in WA
7. WA Government, Western Australian Climate Change Policy
8. Committee for Perth, Resident Sentiment 2050

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Adelaide 2050: A City on the Climate Frontline - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Temperatures to rise 1.5–2°C by 2050[1] Rainfall projected to decrease 7%[2] Sea levels rising up to 25 cm[3] Extreme fire days increasing 15–70%[4] SA reduced emissions 42% since 2005[5] 70% renewable electricity generation[6]

Adelaide faces a climate crisis that by 2050 will reshape its society, economy, and environment.

The eucalyptus trees lining Adelaide's boulevards may look the same in 2050, but the city they shade will be fundamentally transformed.

As South Australia's elegant capital approaches mid-century, climate scientists paint a stark picture of a metropolis grappling with unprecedented environmental pressures that will change everything from daily life to the region's economic foundations.

The Heat is On

Adelaide residents will endure significantly hotter conditions, with average temperatures projected to increase between 1.5°C and 2.0°C across all seasons by 2050^[1].

The frequency and duration of heatwaves will intensify dramatically, transforming summer from a challenging season into a potentially deadly ordeal for vulnerable populations.

Climate researchers warn that extreme heat days exceeding 35°C will become increasingly common, with some projections suggesting Adelaide could experience temperatures approaching 50°C during severe heat events.

These temperature increases will fundamentally alter how Adelaide's 1.4 million residents live, work, and socialise, forcing adaptations that previous generations never imagined necessary.

When the Rains Don't Come

Water, already precious in South Australia's Mediterranean climate, will become even more scarce as average rainfall decreases by 7 per cent by 2050^[2].

The greatest decline will occur during spring, traditionally a crucial period for agricultural productivity and urban water storage replenishment.

This reduction, combined with increased evaporation from higher temperatures, will strain Adelaide's water security and force costly investments in desalination and water recycling infrastructure.

The Murray River, Adelaide's primary water source, faces its own climate-driven challenges upstream, potentially compounding the city's water stress.

Rising Seas, Sinking Suburbs

Coastal Adelaide suburbs face an existential threat as sea levels rise up to 25 centimetres by 2050^[3].

Tennyson, West Lakes, and Port Adelaide, areas already at risk, could experience regular flooding during king tides and storm surges, potentially rendering some properties uninhabitable.

The economic implications are staggering, with property values in low-lying areas likely to plummet as insurance becomes prohibitively expensive or unavailable entirely.

Adelaide's iconic coastal lifestyle, from beach cricket at Glenelg to weekend sailing on Gulf St Vincent, will be increasingly disrupted by erosion and infrastructure damage.

Fire and Fury

Perhaps no threat looms larger than the escalating bushfire risk, with days experiencing high-to-extreme fire danger projected to increase by 15–70% by 2050^[4].

The Adelaide Hills, home to thriving wine regions and tree-change communities, will face unprecedented fire weather conditions that challenge current emergency response capabilities.

Traditional prescribed burning windows are shrinking as the climate dries, making fuel reduction increasingly difficult and dangerous for fire management agencies.

The economic cost of bushfire damage is expected to more than double, with insurance premiums and building codes likely to reflect the new reality of living in a fire-prone landscape.

Economic Transformation

Adelaide's economy will undergo profound restructuring as climate impacts ripple through traditional industries.

The renowned Barossa and Adelaide Hills wine regions face existential challenges as changing rainfall patterns and extreme heat threaten grape quality and vineyard viability.

Agriculture across the broader region will require massive adaptation investments, from drought-resistant crops to climate-controlled growing facilities.

Conversely, new economic opportunities will emerge in renewable energy manufacturing, climate adaptation technologies, and sustainable urban design—sectors where Adelaide is already showing leadership.

Social and Cultural Shifts

The rhythms of Adelaide life will change fundamentally as extreme weather events become routine rather than exceptional.

The city's famous outdoor festival culture, from the Adelaide Festival to WOMADelaide, will require radical reimagining as summer events become dangerous or impossible.

Housing design will prioritise cooling over heating, with traditional Adelaide stone cottages potentially requiring costly retrofits to remain liveable during extended heatwaves.

Public health systems will face unprecedented strain as heat-related illnesses surge, particularly affecting elderly residents and those without adequate cooling.

Political Reckoning

The gap between current climate action and what science demands has created a political tinderbox that will likely explode before 2050.

While South Australia has made impressive progress - reducing emissions by 42 per cent since 2005 and generating over 70 per cent of electricity from renewable sources^[5][6] - global emissions continue rising.

The state's recently introduced legislation targeting 60 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050 represents ambitious local action, but Adelaide's fate remains tied to global efforts.

Young Adelaideans, who will bear the brunt of climate impacts, are increasingly demanding transformative action that goes beyond current incremental policies.

Ecological Upheaval

Adelaide's unique Mediterranean ecosystem will face unprecedented stress as native species struggle to adapt to rapidly changing conditions.

The city's famous parklands and street trees will require complete replanting with climate-resilient species, fundamentally altering Adelaide's green character.

Local bird and animal populations will shift dramatically, with some species disappearing while others migrate from northern regions, creating novel ecosystems with unpredictable interactions.

Urban heat islands will intensify, making tree cover and green infrastructure not just aesthetic choices but essential survival infrastructure.

The Path Forward

Adelaide stands at a crossroads where current climate action, though impressive by Australian standards, falls short of preventing severe disruption.

The city's transition to renewable energy provides a foundation, but adaptation measures from flood barriers to cooling centres require massive acceleration.

Urban planning must prioritise climate resilience, abandoning development in high-risk areas while densifying safer zones with climate-smart design.

Whether Adelaide emerges from this transformation as a model of climate adaptation or a cautionary tale of insufficient action will depend on decisions made in the next five years.

The window for gradual change is closing rapidly, and Adelaide's residents must prepare for a future that will test every assumption about life in one of Australia's most liveable cities.

References

1. How City of Adelaide responds to climate change
2. Climate Ready City
3. Temperature trends – Climate
4. Bushfires in Australia: a serious health emergency under climate change
5. Strengthening South Australia's response to climate change
6. Strengthening South Australia's response to climate change

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