Reefs in Peril: How Global Warming is Unravelling Coral Life - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Coral reefs provide essential ecosystems, coastal protection and economic value. [1] Warm-water coral reefs are highly vulnerable to ocean warming and acidification. [3] Global projections indicate increasing frequency of bleaching and declining reef carbonate production. [9] The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has seen significant coral-cover declines following recent mass-bleaching events. [2] Bleaching, acidification and biodiversity loss carry profound economic and social consequences. [4] Urgent mitigation and adaptation measures are required to slow reef decline and preserve ecosystem services. [5]

Ocean warming and acidification are pushing coral reefs toward world-wide collapse.

Coral reefs are facing unprecedented pressure from rising sea temperatures, ocean acidification and human impacts.

The global coral-reef crisis is no longer a future risk but a present reality with widespread reef bleaching and degradation.

The Great Barrier Reef off Australia is experiencing especially acute stress, with its coral cover declining sharply following recent heat-waves and mass-bleaching events. ^[2]

Many reef-dependent species are disappearing or failing to recover, undermining biodiversity and ecosystem resilience. ^[6]

These trends are starting to threaten the economic and cultural benefits that reefs deliver to coastal communities and nations. ^[4]

Scientific projections indicate that unless greenhouse-gas emissions fall rapidly, bleaching events will become far more frequent and severe. ^[3]

Local and regional responses offer some hope, but without global mitigation the losses will continue to mount. ^[5]

Policymakers, scientists, and communities must act in concert to defend what remains of these vital ecosystems.

Why coral reefs matter

Coral reefs are built by tiny animals called corals that secrete calcium-carbonate skeletons, which form the reef structure.

They provide habitat for up to one quarter of all marine species despite covering less than 1 % of the ocean floor. ^[1]

Reefs also offer coastal protection by dissipating wave energy, reducing storm damage to shorelines and supporting local fisheries and tourism industries. ^[1]

For example the Great Barrier Reef supports tens of thousands of jobs and contributes billions of dollars each year in economic activity. ^[4]

When reefs degrade the loss of biodiversity, protection and livelihoods can cascade through human communities.

How warming and acidification affect reefs

When sea-surface temperatures rise above normal by about 1 °C to 2 °C for an extended period, corals become stressed and expel their symbiotic algae — a process called bleaching. ^[8]

Bleached corals are not immediately dead, but they are weakened and far more likely to die if stress continues. ^[6]

Ocean acidification occurs as the ocean absorbs more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, reducing carbonate ion availability, which corals need to build their skeletons. ^[7]

Acidified waters thus slow reef growth, weaken structure and hamper recovery from damage. ^[7]

Warming water also increases the frequency of marine heatwaves, which raise stress on reef organisms and reduce resilience. ^[8]

Global projections

Globally, the latest scientific models show coral reefs are increasingly at risk of frequent bleaching and declining carbonate production under continuing warming and acidification. ^[3]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports high confidence that warm-water coral reefs and other calcifying organisms are already impacted by extreme temperatures and ocean chemistry changes. ^[1]

Some modelling studies project that under high emissions scenarios, many reefs could lose their carbonate-producing capacity by mid-century, undermining reef structure and ecosystem services. ^[9]

Observed ocean acidification trends from the late 20th century to the present indicate accelerating change in surface waters that threaten tropical reef ecosystems. ^[9]

The combined drivers of warming, acidification and local human stressors create a “poly-crisis” for coral reefs globally — with cascading ecological, economic and social impacts. ^[1]

Case study: Great Barrier Reef

The 2 400-kilometre long Great Barrier Reef off Queensland is the world’s largest coral-reef ecosystem and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. ^[2]

The reef has experienced multiple mass-bleaching events in recent years, with large spatial footprints recorded across regions. ^[2]

According to the latest national surveys, some regions recorded double-digit declines in hard-coral cover following heatwaves and bleaching. ^[2]

The 2024–25 events produced some of the largest bleaching footprints observed on the reef and caused high coral mortality in parts of the southern reef. ^[10]

Researchers and monitoring programs have described localised outcomes as catastrophic in places where mortality exceeded 50 percent. ^[6]

The reef underpins significant tourism and fisheries value; its sustained decline risks jobs and economic flows for Queensland communities. ^[4]

With coral cover declining and the frequency of severe events increasing, the reef’s future resilience is being questioned and demands coordinated policy and restoration efforts. ^[2]

What can be done

Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions is the primary global action to reduce ocean warming and acidification and protect reefs. ^[1]

Local measures also matter, including improving water quality, controlling coastal pollution, reducing runoff and managing crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks. ^[2]

Active reef-restoration initiatives such as coral reseeding, assisted migration and targeted propagation show promise but cannot substitute for strong global mitigation. ^[11]

Effective management of reef-dependent industries and adaptation of tourism and fisheries will help local communities cope with reef degradation. ^[5]

International cooperation, funding, and technology transfer are increasingly vital as coral-reef stress becomes a global concern. ^[1]

Conclusions

Coral reefs are under severe and escalating threat from climate-driven warming and acidification, and major economic, ecological and cultural losses are already unfolding. ^[1]

The Great Barrier Reef illustrates how even large, protected reef systems are vulnerable to global stressors and frequent disturbance events. ^[2]

Without rapid global and local action, the capacity of reefs to deliver ecosystem services and sustain biodiversity and communities will be compromised. ^[3]

However, targeted mitigation, adaptation, and restoration efforts can help slow the decline, buy time and sustain reef value into the future. ^[11]

The window for action is narrow, but meaningful change is still possible. ^[5]

References

1. Chapter 3: Oceans and Coastal Ecosystems and their Services – IPCC WGII AR6
2. Annual Summary Report of Coral Reef Condition 2024/25 – AIMS
3. Projections of coral bleaching and ocean acidification for coral reef areas – NOAA Coral Reef Watch
4. Great Barrier Reef more volatile with sharp declines in coral cover – AIMS news
5. Threats to Great Barrier Reef must be ‘tackled simultaneously’ after back-to-back bleaching – ABC News
6. Coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef now at ‘catastrophic’ levels – University of Sydney
7. Ocean acidification impacts on coral reefs: From sciences to solutions – Gattuso et al. (2018)
8. Summary for Policymakers – Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate – IPCC
9. Projections of coral-reef carbonate production and acidification impacts – News-OA ICC
10. Southern Great Barrier Reef Affected By ‘Catastrophic’ Bleaching – Earth.org
11. AI-driven Dispensing of Coral Reseeding Devices for Broad-scale Restoration of the Great Barrier Reef – Raine et al. (2025)

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Australia’s net-zero challenge - Grattan Institute

Grattan Institute - Tony Wood

Author Tony Wood is the Energy and Climate Change Senior Fellow at Grattan Institute. He was previously the Program Director, from 2011 to 2025, and before then worked at Origin Energy in senior executive roles for 14 years. From 2009 to 2014 he was also Program Director of Clean Energy Projects at the Clinton Foundation, advising governments in the Asia-Pacific region on effective deployment of large-scale, low-emission energy technologies. Note This article was published in The Australian Financial Review, 22 October 2025

The challenges of delivering Australia’s energy transition, and why we must, have never been clearer.

We understand the scope of the challenges, and we have most, but not all, of the solutions. The next few years may determine how well or how poorly we connect them.

For many decades, there has been a globally consistent positive relationship between per capita energy use and GDP.

Like other developed economies, Australia has partly decoupled that relationship as the structure of our economy has shifted. The core challenge of the energy transition is to decouple energy use from emissions.

The imperative to address climate change with a vision that is ambitious and achievable is reflected in Australia’s latest commitment, to reduce emissions by 62-70 per cent below 2005 levels by 2035.

But outside a couple of narrowly defined policies, we do not yet have the energy markets and systems that are fit for the purpose of delivering that result, let alone what must come next.

Energy is the source of about 80 per cent of Australia’s emissions. We have lots of energy sources and delivering that energy has contributed to our economy prosperity. Understanding the future challenges to maintaining that prosperity while addressing climate change requires a look at specific sub-sectors.

Electricity generation’s emissions contribute a third of the total and are projected to be 70 per cent below their 2005 level by 2030. Globally, our prices are in the middle of the pack, and we have had few major issues with reliability. To hit our emissions targets while maintaining affordability and reliability means:

• Building renewable infrastructure and storage at an unprecedented rate.
• Aligning that growth with the closure of increasingly unreliable coal generators.
• Accommodating demand growth from data centres and electrification of gas and transport.
• Integrating battery storage to deliver major improvements in system productivity.
• Working out how to deliver the last 5-to-10 per cent of electricity in a system dominated by solar and wind supply.

More than 20 per cent of Australia’s emissions come from natural gas supply and use. The challenges in reducing these emissions from a few big users and many small users include:

• Moving homes and small businesses to lower-cost electricity while maintaining the safety and reliability of the gas networks.
• Managing the long-ignored problem of failing gas supply in Australia’s south-east.
• Completing a successful review of supply and pricing of east-coast gas.
• Identifying and planning for the likely role of gas as the backup electricity generation source.

Transport fuel emissions contribute about 22 per cent of the total and have been rising. While there are several small sources of transport emissions, the critical challenges are:

• Ensuring that the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard delivers its predicted reductions through to and beyond 2035, supported by expanded charging infrastructure.
• Identifying and supporting actions to address heavy vehicle and aviation emissions, beginning with the $1.2 billion Cleaner Fuels Program.

The government has announced an Electricity and Energy Sector Plan alongside the National Net Zero Plan. The purpose is to support the 2035 target and to chart an ambitious and achievable course to support net zero by 2050.

The sector plan identifies most of the above challenges. It assumes 82 per cent renewables by 2030, partial electrification of gas and transport, and low-carbon liquid fuels for other transport.

It includes deep analysis of what’s producing emissions and describes the sort of changes and pathways that could reduce these emissions. Those changes include assumptions about the actions that will remove a projected residual 163 million tonnes per annum in 2050.

However, the plan lacks clear policies to deliver the changes and to follow the pathways. Beyond numerous assumptions, there is little quantitative analysis, including of the risks ahead, to connect actions with outcomes. The scale is daunting, there are multiple pathways and unknowns, 2035 is alarmingly close, and 2050 is on the horizon.

The challenges are already being used by some politicians and vested interests to argue that Australia should abandon or water down our climate change targets. They are wrong. Tragically, they are only fuelling the ongoing climate war.

Addressing climate change is not our choice. Our only choice is whether we achieve the energy transition well or badly. A clear and predictable action plan is the answer.

Links

• Support The Energy Transition - Step Towards Renewable Energy
• Race to the top: Australia's clean energy momentum
• Australia's energy strategies and frameworks
• How we're tackling Australia's energy transformation
• Renewable energy
• Clean Energy Council: Renewable energy in Australia
• The Global Energy Transition and Critical Minerals
• Jobs versus climate
• Federal Government’s $600m intervention in the energy market

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Climate Change Is Costing Australians $42.2 Billion in Home Value Losses - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

New analysis finds flood risk has reduced Australian home values by about $42.2 billion.[1] Around one in six Australian homes sit in mapped flood zones and many have lower sale prices.[2] Queensland and New South Wales account for the largest share of lost value, with suburban and prestige areas affected.[3] Flood-prone homes have seen 22 percentage points less price growth than comparable flood-free homes since 2000.[2] Insurance costs, market memory and local planning data are reshaping buyer behaviour and finance decisions.[5] Urgent federal action on emissions and improved, public flood mapping are needed to protect household wealth.[6]

Climate change is quietly washing billions off Australia’s property market.

The Climate Council and PropTrack have released a national analysis showing that flood risk has reduced the value of Australian homes by an estimated $42.2 billion.^[1]

The study combines more than two decades of property sales and hazard mapping to compare long-term price growth for homes inside mapped flood zones with comparable homes outside those zones between 2000 and 2025.^[2]

The report warns that as climate-driven rainfall and coastal extremes intensify, the financial exposure from floods will deepen for homeowners, insurers and the national economy.^[3]

A $42 Billion Warning — What the Data Shows

Flood-prone properties have grown about 22 percentage points less in value than comparable flood-free homes since 2000.^[2]

Across all States, the cumulative loss adds up to around $42.2 billion, concentrated in New South Wales and Queensland, where repeated flood events have reshaped buyer sentiment.^[3]

The report shows that flood exposure is now a key determinant of property value and that the housing market is pricing in climate risk faster than governments are acting.^[1]

Regional Impacts — Who is Losing the Most?

Queensland accounts for 41 per cent of the total national property value loss, with towns from Gympie to Rockhampton bearing repeated flood damage.^[4]

In New South Wales, riverine communities such as Lismore and the Northern Rivers have seen sharp and lasting price impacts after the catastrophic 2022 floods.^[3]

Even inner-city and coastal suburbs once thought insulated, including Brisbane’s west and Sydney’s Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment, now face reduced property values due to new hazard mapping.^[5]

Insurance and Finance — The New Market Reality

Rising insurance premiums are amplifying inequality between flood-exposed and flood-free households, with some families paying ten times more than their neighbours.^[6]

Banks are increasingly factoring in physical climate risk, with some lenders adjusting loan-to-value ratios in high-risk postcodes.^[7]

These changes signal a wider recognition that climate risk is a financial risk, and that markets are beginning to price it accordingly.^[8]

Policy and Planning — Gaps and Delays

Experts warn that most Australian flood maps are outdated or incomplete, leaving communities unaware of their exposure until disaster strikes.^[9]

The Climate Council has urged the federal government to adopt a coordinated national flood mapping program and mandate disclosure of flood risks in property sales.^[1]

Alongside emissions cuts, improved planning, stronger building codes and public awareness campaigns are vital to protect property values and community safety.^[10]

What Happens Next?

Without rapid climate action, the property market will face increasing volatility, with billions more in household wealth at stake.^[6]

Analysts warn that as flood risk grows, insurance retreat and reduced lending could trigger localised housing market contractions.^[7]

For homeowners, investors, and governments alike, the findings mark a turning point where climate inaction carries measurable financial cost.^[1]

References

1. Climate Council & PropTrack: Flood Risk and Property Value Report (2025)
2. PropTrack: The Impact of Flood Risk on Property Prices (2025)
3. ABC News: Flood Risk Costs Australia $42 Billion in Property Value (2025)
4. Brisbane Times: Flooded Towns Face Long Road to Recovery (2025)
5. Sydney Morning Herald: Flood Zone Homes Decline in Value (2025)
6. Insurance News: Flood Premiums Triple for Risk Zones (2025)
7. Australian Financial Review: Banks Factor in Climate Risk to Lending (2025)
8. The Guardian: Property Market Begins Pricing in Climate Risk (2025)
9. ABC News: Outdated Flood Maps Put Homes at Risk (2025)
10. CSIRO: Building Climate Resilience for Australian Communities (2025)

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AlterCOP 30: Australia’s grassroots answer to global climate summits - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

AlterCOP 30 offers an alternative, inclusive approach to climate action in Australia[1] Event inspired by COP30’s global climate summit, but locally focused[2] Centres on community-led innovation, Indigenous knowledge, and youth leadership[3] Held across Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne in November 2025[4] Key speakers include scientists, artists, and social entrepreneurs[5] Agenda includes climate adaptation workshops and creative forums[6]

Australia is preparing to host AlterCOP 30, a grassroots, community-driven response to the upcoming United Nations COP30 summit in Brazil.

The event is designed to make climate dialogue more inclusive and action-oriented, reaching beyond policymakers to everyday citizens^[1].

AlterCOP 30 aims to bridge the gap between global climate negotiations and local realities, focusing on social innovation, Indigenous knowledge, and sustainability through creativity^[2].

With a program running from Brisbane to Melbourne this November, it brings together scientists, artists, and activists to inspire practical change across Australia^[3].

The initiative is supported by State and community groups, including People for Nature Australia and Advance Queensland.

Why AlterCOP 30 is being held

Organisers say the event was conceived as a “people’s COP,” offering Australians a platform to engage in climate solutions at a local level^[1].

AlterCOP 30 rejects the idea that climate action must be confined to diplomatic negotiations.

Instead, it emphasises collaboration, local adaptation, and cultural renewal as key responses to the climate emergency^[2].

By decentralising the conversation, the event seeks to empower communities to develop their own climate strategies while learning from Indigenous custodians of the land.

Objectives and philosophy

The main objective of AlterCOP 30 is to create an open forum where science, art, and activism intersect to drive social change^[3].

It aims to amplify local innovation in energy, food systems, and social resilience.

Workshops, performances, and panels are designed to connect participants emotionally and intellectually with climate realities, promoting creativity as a tool for climate resilience^[4].

Organisers describe it as a “celebration of shared futures”, a counterpoint to traditional conferences dominated by policy experts.

Agenda and featured sessions

The multi-day program opens in Brisbane with “Queensland in Transition: Climate Realities, Shared Futures,” focusing on renewable innovation and local adaptation strategies^[6].

Day two in Sydney will feature “The Adaptation Game,” a participatory forum that blends theatre, data, and design to explore human responses to climate disruption^[7].

Melbourne will host the closing event, “Reimagining Tomorrow,” highlighting youth leadership and climate storytelling through art and film^[4].

Each city will include local case studies, exhibitions, and citizen innovation labs focused on practical pathways to reduce emissions.

Speakers and contributors

Among the featured speakers are climate scientist Dr Karl Mallon, sustainability designer Leanne Simpson, and Indigenous knowledge holder Dr Mary Gumbula^[5].

Workshops are also being led by youth climate networks and artists who use creative media to translate science into action.

Sessions will invite participants to co-design solutions for their own regions, from renewable energy to food security.

Locations and participation

AlterCOP 30 events are scheduled for Brisbane’s State Library of Queensland, Sydney’s Powerhouse Museum, and Melbourne’s Federation Square^[4].

Most sessions are hybrid, combining in-person attendance with live streaming through Humanitix event pages^[3].

Tickets are offered on a pay-what-you-can model to ensure accessibility for all.

References

1. AlterCOP 30 Australia | Advance Queensland
2. AlterCOP Australia: Extending the Spirit of the COP30 Green Zone | People for Nature Australia
3. AlterCOP 30 Australia | Humanitix
4. AlterCOP 30 – What’s On Melbourne
5. AlterCOP 30 Australia | HappeningNext
6. Queensland in Transition: Climate Realities, Shared Futures – AlterCOP 30 Day 1
7. The Adaptation Game – AlterCOP 30 Day 2

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How climate change risks children’s health - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Children are physiologically more vulnerable to climate hazards and pollution.[1] Air pollution, heat, infectious diseases and food insecurity are primary pathways of harm.[2] Early-life exposure to poor air quality predicts poorer health in adolescence and beyond.[3] Paediatricians and public-health bodies are increasingly urging climate action for child health.[7] Adaptation measures such as cool schools, air filtration and nutrition programs reduce risk.[5] Low-income and marginalised children face the largest and most persistent impacts.[6]

Climate change is changing environments where children grow, learn and play.

Children are uniquely exposed because their organs and immune systems develop rapidly, and they breathe more air per kilogram of body weight than adults.

Air pollution from fossil fuels, wildfire smoke and rising ozone combines with heat, changing disease patterns and food insecurity to produce multiple health threats for young people.

Research now links early-life exposure to polluted air with worse respiratory health, slower growth and reduced well-being later in life.

Heatwaves and extreme weather events increase the risk of dehydration, heat illness and injury among infants and school-age children.

Vector and waterborne diseases are shifting their ranges and seasonality, increasing infections in some child populations.

Mental health and learning suffer when children experience displacement, family stress or school disruption after climate disasters.

Medical associations and paediatricians are increasingly framing climate action as a child-health priority and calling for both mitigation and adaptation.

Without stronger action and equity-focused policies, children in disadvantaged communities will shoulder the greatest burdens for decades to come.^[6]

The unique vulnerability of children

Children’s bodies and behaviours make them more susceptible to environmental hazards compared with adults.

They inhale more air relative to body size, drink more water per kilogram and spend more time outdoors, increasing pollutant and pathogen exposure.

Early-life exposures occur while lungs, brains and immune systems are forming, creating the potential for lifelong impacts from short exposures.

Global health organisations highlight that a disproportionate share of climate-related disease burden falls on children and adolescents worldwide.^[1]

Air pollution and respiratory impacts

Air pollution is a leading and well-documented pathway by which climate change harms children’s health.

Warmer temperatures increase ground-level ozone and can worsen particulate pollution during stagnation and wildfire events.

Numerous studies link childhood exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone with increased asthma, poorer lung growth and higher respiratory hospital admissions.

A recent cohort study found that children exposed between ages two and four to higher particulate levels were more likely to report worse health at age seventeen, illustrating long-term consequences of early exposure.^[3]

Cleaner energy and transport policies reduce air pollution and deliver rapid benefits for child respiratory health and development.^[13]

Heat, extreme weather and direct physical harm

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and more intense in many regions, raising risks for dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke in children.

Infants and very young children are less able to regulate body temperature and rely on caregivers and safe settings to avoid dangerous heat exposure.

Extreme weather also disrupts water and sanitation services and health care access, amplifying risks of infection and injury.

Regional reports note a steady rise in child exposures to heatwaves and related admissions, prompting calls for heat-safe school protocols and cooling interventions.^[15]

Infectious disease, water safety and nutrition

Shifts in rainfall, temperature, and flooding change the habitats of disease vectors and the seasonality of some infections that affect children.

Diarrhoeal diseases and waterborne outbreaks follow floods and service breakdowns and are a major cause of morbidity in young children in many countries.

Crops and food systems disrupted by drought and extreme weather reduce food availability and diversity, increasing undernutrition and stunting risks.

Systematic reviews show associations between climate-sensitive events and rises in diarrhoeal disease, malnutrition, and growth faltering in children across impacted areas.^[8]

Mental health, learning and social impacts

Children affected by disasters often experience anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress, which can impair learning and social development.

Displacement, school closures and parental stress undermine stable caregiving environments that children need to thrive.

Research after climate disasters consistently documents elevated rates of mental-health symptoms in children and adolescents that can persist without support.

Community-based mental-health responses and school reintegration programs reduce long-term harms when deployed promptly after events.^[8]

Role of the medical community and allied actors

Paediatricians and public-health professionals are increasingly framing climate change as a clinical and policy concern for child health.

Clinical actions include screening for heat and smoke exposure, advising families on exposure reduction, and supporting vaccination and nutrition services that lower vulnerability.

Professional bodies urge policymakers to adopt health-centred climate mitigation such as clean-air standards and rapid decarbonisation to protect children now and in the future.^[7]

Schools, local councils and civil society provide adaptation measures such as early-warning systems, air-quality monitoring, cooling centres and nutrition support to reduce immediate risks.

Equity, evidence gaps and policy priorities

Equity must be central because socioeconomically disadvantaged children face higher exposure and lower capacity to adapt.

High-income countries may see improvements with policy changes, while many low-income settings lack infrastructure, increasing risks and long-term harms.

Researchers note important evidence gaps, especially long-term cohort data from under-researched regions and rigorous evaluation of interventions for children.^[10]

Priority policies include reducing fossil-fuel emissions for immediate air-quality gains, strengthening health systems, and investing in child-focused adaptation such as cool, ventilated schools and nutrition programs.^[16]

Outlook

The evidence is clear that climate change increases many threats to child health and development, and that many harms are preventable with timely action.

Protecting children demands integrated mitigation and adaptation that centre on health and equity, combined with improved surveillance and research.

When health professionals, educators, planners, and policymakers act together, they can cut risks and secure better health outcomes for today’s children and future generations.

References

1. Climate change and child health: a scoping review and an expanded conceptual framework — The Lancet Planetary Health
2. Air pollution — Children’s Environmental Health Collaborative — UNICEF
3. Exposure to air pollution in childhood linked to poorer health in late adolescence — UCL News
4. How climate change degrades child health: A systematic review and meta-analysis — ScienceDirect
5. Climate health risks to children and adolescents: exposures, policy and practice interventions — ETC-HE Report 2024
6. The impact of climate change on child health around the world: Results of a survey — Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health
7. Climate Change and Children’s Health: Building a Healthy Future for Every Child — Pediatrics
8. Climate change impacts on child and adolescent health and well-being — JOGH
9. Impact of climate change and air pollution on childhood respiratory health — ScienceDirect
10. Impact of climate change on child outcomes: an evidence gap map review — BMJ Paediatrics Open
11. Climate change and children’s respiratory health — ScienceDirect
12. Climate health risks to children and adolescents — ETC-HE Report 2024 (duplicate)
13. Air pollution and child health impacts of decarbonization in 16 global cities — ScienceDirect
14. Climate Change and Children’s Health: Building a Healthy Future for Every Child — Pediatrics (duplicate)
15. Regional heat and child exposure findings — ETC-HE Report 2024 (see full report)
16. Climate change and child wellbeing: a systematic evidence and gap map — The Lancet
17. Decarbonisation benefits for child health — ScienceDirect (see full article)

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A crucial store of carbon in Australia’s tropical forests has switched from carbon sink to carbon source - The Conversation

The Conversation - Hannah Jayne Carle   Adrienne Nicotra   David Bauman 
                                 Michael N Evans   Patrick Meir

Alexander Shenkin, Author provided (no reuse)

Authors Hannah Jayne Carle Postdoctoral Researcher in Tropical Forest Ecology, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, WSU, Australian National University Adrienne Nicotra Professor of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, Australian National University David Bauman Research Scientist in Plant Ecology, Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD) Michael N Evans Professor in Earth’s Systems Science, University of Maryland Patrick Meir Chair of Ecosystem Science, University of Edinburgh

One approach to help fight climate change is to protect natural forests, as they absorb some atmospheric carbon released by burning fossil fuels and store large volumes of carbon.

Our new research on Australia’s tropical rainforests challenges the assumption that they will keep absorbing more carbon than they release.

We found that as climate change has intensified over the past half-century, less and less carbon has been taken up and converted to wood in the stems and branches of the trees in these forests. 

Woody biomass is a large and relatively stable store of carbon in forests, and acts as an important indicator of overall forest health.

The effect has been so pronounced that the woody biomass of these forests has gone from being a carbon sink to a carbon source. 

This means carbon is being lost to the atmosphere due to trees dying faster than it is being replaced by tree growth.

This is the first time woody biomass in tropical forests has been shown to switch from sink to source. Our research indicates the shift likely happened about 25 years ago.

It remains to be seen whether Australian tropical forests are a harbinger for other tropical forests globally.

Above ground biomass of trees in 20 long-term Australian rainforest research sites has gone from carbon sink to source as more trees die and decay. Andrew Ford, Author provided (no reuse)

What did we find?

Since 1971, scientists have tracked around 11,000 trees in 20 tracts of tropical rainforest in Australia’s far northeast, now part of the Queensland Permanent Rainforest Plots Network. 

This 49-year research effort is one of the world’s longest and most comprehensive of its kind.

We analysed this long-term data and found a clear signal: woody biomass switched from being a carbon sink to a carbon source about 25 years ago.

Why? One reason: trees are dying twice as fast as they used to.

Tropical rainforest tree species are adapted to generally warm, wet conditions. As the climate changes, they are subjected to increasingly extreme temperatures and drier conditions.

These kinds of extreme climate events can damage wood and leaves, limiting future growth and leading to higher rates of tree death.

We also found tree deaths from cyclones reduced how much carbon these forests could absorb. 

Cyclones in far north Queensland are projected to become increasingly severe under climate change. They are also likely to push further south, potentially affecting new areas of forest.

Isn’t carbon dioxide plant food?

Burning fossil fuels and other human activities have increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. 

This should make it easier for plants to absorb CO₂ from the air, photosynthesise and grow. 

Given this, Earth system models predict higher atmospheric CO₂ levels will stimulate plant growth and increase how much carbon tropical forests can take up.

Also, remote sensing shows the canopies of tropical forests on Australia’s east coast are about 20% greener than they were in the 1980s. 

This suggests forest canopy growth has increased due to higher levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere. But this isn’t the whole picture.

Our data shows any potential increase in photosynthesis resulting in greener forest canopies has not translated to greater carbon storage in stems and branches.

The reason may be that tree growth can be limited by water, nutrients and heat. 

Our work suggest that warmer and drier conditions have limited tree growth even as CO₂ concentration has increased.

In a separate study, scientists artificially increased CO₂ and found the extra carbon taken up by leaves wasn’t being stored as extra woody growth. 

Rather, it was quickly released through roots and soil microbes. 

Australian rainforest canopies have become greener. But heat, drying and water availability are taking their toll on carbon sink capacity. Alexander Shenkin, Author provided (no reuse)

What about other forest carbon stocks?

It will be challenging to find out whether these forests as a whole (including wood, roots, leaves and soils) have declined in carbon sink capacity.

The use of a specialised research tool known as eddy covariance towers could help, as these measure overall CO₂ movement into and out of ecosystems.

As of yet, only 15 years of this kind of data from three tropical Australian sites is available, which currently limits our ability to describe the fuller impact of climate change.

In any case, we know carbon stored in forest canopies and soils is often broken down and released back to the atmosphere faster than carbon in woody biomass.

So while Australia’s tropical rainforest carbon stores remain large, they may be less secure and reliable than in decades past.

Long term datasets are vital

When people visit Australia’s tropical rainforests, they can see intact stretches of biodiverse forest and large, carbon-rich trees. 

It’s hard to directly see the changes we have detected – for now, they’re only visible in the data.

Without high-quality long-term datasets, this signal would have been almost impossible to detect. 

Unfortunately, persistent funding shortages for long-term ecological monitoring threaten the continuity of these hugely valuable datasets.

Australia has the potential to assume a globally leading role in tropical ecosystem science. 

In light of state and national biodiversity and emission reduction commitments, Australian governments should support continued monitoring of vital ecological research sites.

Tropical forests may not be saviours

The fact that woody biomass in Australia’s tropical rainforests is now a net source of carbon has major implications.

These findings challenge our future reliance on forests as natural absorbers of extra atmospheric carbon.

We don’t know yet whether all tropical forests will respond similarly. 

Evidence on carbon sink capacity is mixed. Rainforests in South America are showing a decline while African rainforests are generally not.

Overall, the world’s tropical forests remain very significant stores of carbon and biodiversity. Their protection remains essential despite the climate risks they face.

Links 

• Aboveground biomass in Australian tropical forests now a net carbon source
• Queensland Permanent Rainforest Plots
• Tropical tree mortality has increased with rising atmospheric water stress
• The risks to Australia of a 3°C warmer world
• Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds
• The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia
• Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability
• Thirty-eight years of CO2 fertilization has outpaced growing aridity to drive greening of Australian woody ecosystems
• The fate of carbon in a mature forest under carbon dioxide enrichment
• What is an Eddy Covariance Flux Tower?

Battery Breakthroughs and the Path to Energy Independence - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Battery storage unlocks more wind solar and wave power by smoothing generation and demand.[1] New chemistries such as sodium-ion solid-state and long-duration flow systems are reaching commercial maturity.[2] Vehicle-to-grid systems let electric cars act as distributed batteries to support homes and grids.[3] Long-duration storage is essential for multi-day resilience and higher renewable shares.[4] With proper policy and investment towns and cities can become largely self-reliant on renewables and storage.[5] Deployment barriers remain cost regulatory and infrastructure related and must be addressed to scale benefits.[6]

Battery technology is central to replacing fossil fuels with renewable electricity.

Without reliable storage, wind, solar, and wave power cannot fully replace fossil fuel.^[1]

Large battery energy storage systems already balance supply and demand on grids in many countries.^[2]

Recent breakthroughs in chemistry and design promise longer duration, lower cost, and less reliance on scarce materials.^[2]

Electric vehicles are evolving to function as mobile batteries that can discharge power back to homes or the grid.^[3]

That change raises the prospect that vehicles could support household energy needs during outages and reduce peak demand.^[4]

Cities and towns are piloting integrated systems of renewables, storage, and digital control to become more self-reliant.^[5]

The speed of battery deployment will determine whether renewables can deliver deep decarbonisation within required timelines.^[6]

Realising these benefits demands policy investment and standards to manage costs, lifecycle, and grid integration.^[6]

Why storage is the linchpin

Wind, solar, and wave power are variable and often produce electricity at times when demand is low.^[1]

When generation exceeds demand without storage, the only options are curtailment or running fossil backups.^[1]

Battery energy storage systems store surplus energy and dispatch it later to meet demand and stabilise frequency.^[2]

Models show strategic placement of batteries reduces renewable curtailment and improves reliability.^[7]

Breakthrough chemistries and long-duration solutions

Lithium-ion still dominates, but alternatives such as sodium-ion and solid-state cells are moving toward commercial scale.^[2]

Sodium-ion batteries use more abundant sodium, reducing exposure to lithium supply constraints and cost pressure.^[8]

Solid-state batteries replace the liquid electrolyte with a solid material, promising improved safety and potentially higher energy density.^[2]

Flow batteries and other long-duration energy storage systems are designed to store energy for many hours or days, which is crucial for multi-day low wind or solar periods.^[4]

Material innovations are also reducing lifecycle environmental impacts, improving recycling, and lowering total system costs.^[2]

Vehicles as distributed power plants

Vehicle-to-grid systems allow bidirectional power flow between an EV and the grid.^[3]

That capability turns parked cars into flexible distributed storage that can reduce peak demand and provide ancillary services.^[4]

Pilot projects have demonstrated real world benefits, but widespread adoption requires standards, incentives, and battery warranty frameworks.^[3]

If widely implemented, Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) could meaningfully reduce the need for new stationary storage but will not replace the need for long-duration assets.^[4]

Paths to self-reliant towns and cities

Urban areas can combine rooftop solar community batteries and smart management to reduce dependence on centralised fossil generation.^[5]

Energy planning that integrates distributed generation, storage, and demand response is essential for local self-reliance.^[5]

Many municipalities have set renewable targets and are running pilots that demonstrate how districts can move off fossil fuels.^[5]

Full city-scale transition timing depends on policy, finance, urban density, and existing infrastructure, but is achievable with concerted action.^[6]

Costs risks and system challenges

Although battery costs have fallen dramatically, further reductions are needed to scale long-duration storage affordably.^[6]

Regulatory reform is needed to value the services batteries provide, including capacity, reliability, and fast frequency response.^[6]

Recycling supply chain resilience and lifecycle emissions must be addressed to avoid shifting environmental burdens.^[2]

Timing and outlook

Industry and analysts expect sodium-ion and some long-duration systems to scale commercially within the latter half of this decade.^[2]

Widespread V2G adoption across vehicle fleets could become commonplace through the 2030s as EV stock and charger standards increase.^[4]

City and town transitions to high shares of local renewables plus storage are likely to progress, with many achieving major milestones in the 2030s and 2040s.^[5]

If deployment and policy fall short, the benefits will be delayed, and decarbonisation targets will be harder to meet.^[6]

Why this matters

Batteries make renewables reliable, which is central to cutting emissions from the electricity and transport sectors.^[1]

Vehicles serving as distributed batteries and cities moving to local renewables increase resilience, reduce fuel import exposure, and democratise energy.^[5]

Meeting climate targets depends on rapid scaling of storage alongside generation energy efficiency and electrification.^[6]

References

1. Intermittency and periodicity in net-zero renewable energy systems with storage — ScienceDirect
2. Battery storage supporting renewable energy is necessary and feasible, but faces challenges — UCL News
3. Beyond lithium-ion: emerging frontiers in next-generation battery — Frontiers in Batteries and Electrochemistry
4. Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology: opportunities, challenges, and future — ScienceDirect
5. Empowering Urban Energy Transitions – Analysis — IEA
6. Policy Paper for fossil-free districts and cities — Energy Cities
7. Techno-Economic Planning of Spatially-Resolved Battery Storage Systems in Renewable-Dominant Grids Under Weather Variability — arXiv
8. Battery Buzz: 5 breakthroughs to watch in 2025 — RDWorldOnline
9. Global battery rollout doubled last year – but needs to be six times faster, says IEA — The Guardian
10. How Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Technology is Powering the Future of Energy — BCC Research Blog
11. Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) integration in electric vehicles: review — MDPI/WEVJ
12. Urban Energy Transitions: A Systematic Review — MDPI Land
13. How cities can drive the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy — C40 Knowledge Hub

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