26% Target 'Does Not Stack Up'

David Rossiter, former greenhouse energy and data officer, Royalla, NSW 
Canberra Times Letter to the Editor

At the Copenhagen climate change meeting in 2009, Australia joined around 150 other countries in committing to ensuring that global warming did not exceed 2 degrees.
Experts have estimated that this equates to a total world budget of 565 billion tonnes of carbon emissions. Australia's share of this would be about 10.1 billion tonnes beyond 2013. It sounds like a lot, but with no significant reduction from the emissions of some 550 million tonnes yearly, our budget would be used up by about 2032.
The Abbott Government's announcement of a new target of 26 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 (based on 2005 emissions) will only marginally improve that situation.
The new emissions reduction target translates to a numeric target of 450 million tonnes a year for the year 2030.
Assuming a steady drop in emissions from now to 2030 (and how this will be achieved is another question entirely), we will have used about 8 of our 10.1 billion tonnes by 2030.
The remaining allocation of 2.1 billion tonnes is likely to be used up by 2034 or 2035.
We can expect huge international pressure to remain within our 10.1 billion tonne allocation.
On this basis, therefore, we should aim to transition to a zero-carbon economy by 2035. A gentler transition to a zero-carbon economy over 30 or 40 years is possible, but only if the targets set now are more realistic and robust, say 40 per cent or 50 per cent by 2030.
In this context, Tony Abbott's comment that the 26 per cent target is both economically and environmentally responsible does not actually stack up.
He is simply making it much more difficult for future governments to manage a smooth transition to a zero-carbon economy.