Australia Faces Rising Perils From Climate Change, Earthquakes: Munich Re Report

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Sydney can expect 30 per cent more thunderstorm days as the climate warms up, Munich Re says.
Photo: Nick Moir

Sydney faces almost one-third more hailstorm days, Brisbane is at a rising risk of a direct hit from a category-three cyclone, and south-eastern Australia will have to endure three times as many high-risk bushfire days over the century because of climate change, one of the world's biggest re-insurers says.
The costs to Australia from natural catastrophes has almost quadrupled from 1980 to reach $6.3 billion year, a figure which soar to $23 billion by 2050, according to Munich Re's latest Expect the Unexpected report.
Most of the threats, ranging from droughts to heatwaves and sea-level rise, will be worsened by a warming planet caused by rising greenhouse gas levels, Eberhard Faust, head of climate risk research for Munich Re, told Fairfax Media.

Boats hammered after Cyclone Yasi in 2001. Photo: Glen Hunt GTH

While north-east Australia can expect the number of tropical cyclones of moderate to medium intensity to drop by as much as 35 per cent over the century, the most powerful storms will likely increase in frequency, climate models indicate.
The region of cyclones' maximum intensity is also shifting poleward in both the northern and southern hemispheres. That means a category 3-strength cyclone hitting Brisbane - which has had near misses in the past - "is on the cards", Dr Faust said.

Tropical cyclones Lam and Marcia over Australia in February 2015 - expect more such storms further south, Munich Re says. Photo: NOAA

"Insurers should really get it on the radar ... and think about the huge exposure and what the consequences would be," he said. Regions from the Gold Coast to Brisbane are exposed to risks from storm surges, wind damage and floods.
Shifting wind patterns that may hamper the formation of cyclones have other consequences, such as triggering more thunderstorms. These events already count among Australia's biggest natural disasters, such as the April 1999 Sydney hailstorm that left a $3.8 billion damage bill in today's dollars.
For Sydney, the number of days a year with atmospheric conditions conducive for thunderstorms will rise by 30 per cent by the end of the century, based on a high global emissions trajectory. For Melbourne, the increase will be about 20 per cent, Dr Faust said.
Bushfire risks, too, will be elevated by a combination of worse droughts and also rising hotter temperatures.
"In terms of the atmospheric conditions which are prone to forest fires, models project up to a three-fold increase in frequency by the end of the century for southern and eastern Australia," Dr Faust said.

Quake risks
While nations can limit the damage by curbing carbon emissions, constructing more resilient homes, bridges and other buildings would cut Australia's future repair bills. Such spending can also help protect against a threat few Australians have considered - earthquakes.
Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and especially Adelaide are located in areas with an "enhanced level of seismicity", with the South Australian capital already rocked by a magnitude-5.4 quake in 1954, Munich Re said.
A repeat of Adelaide's1954 temblor would likely leave a multi-billion dollar bill in insured losses alone, while a magnitude-6 event - which happens somewhere in Australia roughly once every five years - would potentially cost tens of billions of dollars, the reinsurer said.
"There's a realistic scenario that one of [Australia's] big cities might be hit by a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake," Dr Faust said.