The five-yearly reviews mooted for the Paris agreement are essential to holding global warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
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| The effects of climate change can be managed. Photo: Jessica Shapiro |
Five years is a very short time when it comes to measuring global warming. It's an age, however, in terms of assessing the politics of climate change.
The political momentum for concerted global action looks much better today than it did five years ago when the Labor government of Julia Gillard started preparing for the ill-fated carbon tax. In recent months many nations have pledged to reduce emissions further than expected. Technology is evolving rapidly towards the goal of cleaner emissions. The price of renewables is falling. Business is starting to invest more in green energy. Even the Coalition government in Canberra is sensing the community's climate for change.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will arrive at the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Paris on Monday and may even stay for much of the 12-day duration. That's progress. His predecessor, Tony Abbott, wasn't even committed to attending.
While expectations are high, they have been dashed before.
Just nine weeks ago Mr Turnbull ousted Mr Abbott by pledging not to change the Coalition's climate policy. But he has - at least at the margins. He's saved and strengthened the Climate Change Authority and promised a review of Direct Action after the election while suggesting his government is open to even stronger goals in Paris. Crucially, he is open to toughening through five-yearly reviews our underwhelming emissions reduction targets for 2030 – 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels, or 19 per cent on 2000 levels.
On the face of it Australia is back in the green economy business and voters seem happy with that. Subscribers to the Herald can participate in a special SMH Live event on Wednesday night at the Museum of Contemporary Art in The Rocks to discuss how best to utilise Australia's revitalised climate for change.
One thing is certain: Direct Action is too expensive to stand alone as a long-term solution. As configured it will not be able to deliver anything like the required reductions. As such there a lot of "ifs" involved in the Turnbull government's commitments, no matter the outcome in Paris. Mr Turnbull will only be able to do more to tackle global warming if he can overcome the hardliners in his government; if he wins the next election convincingly to obtain a mandate for agility on climate change policy; if voters fear the words "carbon tax" when uttered by Labor but don't mind "what works best" when uttered by the Coalition; and if the Prime Minister is prepared to morph existing elements of Direct Action into a globally linked, market-based reduction scheme as soon as 2017.
Mr Turnbull's task will be made much easier if the 196 nations in Paris can agree to ratchet up action. Success there will help neutralise Labor's market-based plans - yet to be revealed in detail besides a target of 50 per cent renewables in contrast to the government's reduced renewable energy target. A deal in Paris will also help Mr Turnbull outmanoeuvre internal Coalition critics.
The five-yearly reviews mooted for the Paris agreement are essential to holding global warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Thus far the pledges of nations only hold warming to 2.7 degrees, although that's still better than the estimated 4-5 degree warming should nations continue on current polluting paths. The hope is for a snowball effect as each nation offers more action to reach ever increasing emission reductions targets.
Sticking points linger over the long-term goal, though. Mr Turnbull has agreed to support the 2 degrees goal and is reportedly ready to accept 1.5 degrees if consensus can be reached. The ambition for fossil fuels is also ticklish, with Australia preferring "carbon neutrality" by 2050 rather than the stronger "decarbonisation" or "zero emissions". The Herald agrees coal will contribute to economies for decades, but Australia must invest far more in innovations to find cheaper, cleaner energy and carbon storage. The other obstacle will be finding more money to compensate developing nations for the economic hardship of solutions to a problem caused in large part by developed nations. Already $US100 billion a year by 2020 has been promised but there are demands for guarantees on more after that. Some developing nations and Saudi Arabia are expected to object to any tough language in the Paris communique at all.
The Herald hopes Australia's apparent return to the lead in fighting global warming will help convince naysayers here and abroad that the Paris summit offers an opportunity we cannot afford to miss.
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