The deal provides the impetus and a mechanism for every nation to do far ore to tackle global warming - and they must do significantly more.
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| Unlike our 2020 emissions trading reduction target, Australia cannot leave the essential next steps under the Paris process to luck and trickery. Photo: Jessica Shapiro |
Far better late than never, the climate for change among most individuals and the vast majority of nations has morphed into a historic agreement. Global warming can – and must – be limited for the benefit of future generations. The Paris accord creates the momentum and mechanism to do that. Eventually.
As US President Barack Obama said, "We won't live to see the full realisation of our achievements, but that's OK." Indeed it is, providing nations such as ours use the Paris deal as justification to do more to tackle global warming.
The new architecture provides impetus to reach net neutral carbon emissions between 2050 and 2100. Nations must ramp up emissions targets every five years with the aim of limiting temperature increases to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and an intent to reach 1.5C. The total of current commitments beyond 2020 will still allow temperatures to rise by closer to 3C. So every nation must do significantly more.
Australia's emissions reduction target to 2020 will be reached in large part by good fortune and beyond that by questionable accounting. We cannot leave the essential next steps under the Paris process to luck and trickery. There are now clear rules on what does and does not constitute doing our bit.
Fortunately, the Turnbull government is showing signs of willingness to adapt to a new world view that accepts the science and commits every nation to doing the most it can – within political and economic imperatives. India, developing nations, the oil-rich and to some extent China remain half-hearted, despite having signed on to a deal with the West which gives poorer countries $100 billion by 2020 plus an indeterminate extra amount over time to help them cope with the adjustment and the damage from climate change. Australian taxpayers will have to front up more cash over the next few decades.
During the past two years Australia lost global leadership as the Abbott government ditched the carbon tax and chose to limit actions to the bare minimum under pressure from climate change denialists. The other excuse – that we won't act until others do – is now gone too.
Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop rightly opened the door further to market mechanisms to reduce emissions. The ban on government support for wind farms has vanished. The Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, is open to doing whatever works best.
But he has much more to do on the Direct Action policy, which alone cannot hope to meet even our modest target of 26-28 per cent reductions in emissions by 2030 based on 2005 levels. A carbon price remains the best option, but politically will be difficult for Mr Turnbull.
As the Herald has argued, Direct Action in its safeguards mechanism and penalties contains the seeds of a baseline and credit emissions reduction system based on permit trading and using global markets. The government must examine that change well before the review of the scheme in 2017 and the first five-year review of progress under the Paris accord.
Other Australian policies will also need to become more realistic. The Renewable Energy Target must increase gradually, while the essential bodies for encouraging investment in new, cheaper technology – such as the Clean Energy Finance Corporation – must be strengthened.
The economic cost of the Paris deal will be felt particularly keenly in Australia. Our reliance on the export of fossil fuels will need to be reduced over time. Our use of old-style coal-fired power plants for energy generation is not viable. Some technology improvements will keep coal viable for decades, but the demand from increasingly green overseas economies will diminish.
Proposed resources projects will have to take into account the Paris agreement when assessing any cost-benefit. Many will not proceed. Indeed every business in Australia will have to factor in fully that they will be required to source cleaner energy and produce far fewer greenhouse gas emissions or they will lose markets and pay extra for services.
It is clear Australia needs to become more innovative and invest more heavily in green technologies to adapt to the post-Paris world. Our and others' contribution to the Bill Gates-led Green Energy Innovation Fund at the start of the Paris talks represented significant progress.
By contrast to the situation three months ago, we are far better placed to be pragmatic and entrepreneurial in finding stronger policies to play our part. The next election will not be so much about knocking down climate change policies but about finding the ones that work most efficiently for the lowest cost in meeting increasingly difficult and costly targets.
The game has been changed forever, for the good of us and especially for generations to come.
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