Paris UN Climate Conference 2015: Paris Delivers, But Can Malcolm Turnbull?

Fairfax - Tom Arup

ANALYSIS

Climate deal hailed as fossil fuels turning point
An emotional French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius presents a landmark global climate accord, calling it a "historic" measure for turning the tide on global warming.

With the Paris summit wrapping up having delivered an historic global climate agreement, questions will inevitably turn to whether Malcolm Turnbull will use the international momentum to advance the climate debate back home.
For half a decade, Australia has been stuck in a fact-free debate on climate policy - one that has seen one of the biggest challenges the world faces turned into a domestic political chew toy.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull addresses the Paris climate conference nearly two weeks ago. Photo: AP

But where the failure at Copenhagen helped derailed Kevin Rudd's climate ambition back in 2009, success in Paris presents the opposite opportunity for Turnbull, who many believe has a deep desire to move to a more robust climate policy.
The excuse presented for inaction for so long - that the world is not acting - no longer holds water. And the deal struck in Paris is going to require Australia, and all countries, to take on more responsibility to meet its long-term goals.
For a start, Australia has to review its emissions targets.  It has set what is widely regarded to be a low-ball goal of cutting emissions by 26-28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. The government has known it may have to lift this under the Paris deal, and has been preparing for it by signalling it will allow the use of international carbon markets - representing cuts effectively in poorer countries paid for by Australia - from 2017. The Paris deal supports international carbon trading.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull arriving at the Paris climate summit last month Photo: Ella Pellegrini

Deeper cuts will also require a bigger re-think of domestic policies - Australia will not be able to rely on the current combination of paying some farmers and businesses to cut emissions, carbon accounting fiddles and falling demand for electricity.
It will have to find a way to finally address pollution from the country's fleet of large, ageing coal-fired power plants. Emissions from coal have been rising since the Coalition abolished the national carbon price scheme.
The government's direct action scheme is not fit for this job - at least not as currently designed. It will need a radical overhaul, perhaps one that would make it look more like a type of emissions trading scheme.

Activists gather near the Eiffel Tower on the final day of the Paris conference. Photo: AP

This is the kind of debate business has been crying out for, and will be even more now there is global deal signalling the long-term phase out of fossil fuels.
How fast Turnbull can move, assuming he wants to, is an open question. Labor has promised a more ambitious approach, which creates opportunities for bipartisanship, but he will have to overcome roadblocks in his own party.
Turnbull knew this when he spoke alongside about 150 world leaders on the first day of the Paris summit nearly two weeks ago, giving a carefully balanced speech with one eye on the politics back home.
It was strange to see a political leader who understands the climate change dilemma so well - remember, this is a man who gave notes to Ross Garnaut as he prepared his landmark global warming reviews - unable to give a full throated account of it on the world stage because of a small rump of climate sceptics back home.
We will soon find out whether two weeks on, and one historic agreement later, Turnbull feels the world has moved enough to take a few brave steps forward.

Links

• Historic deal struck in Paris
• Well done, but real test to come
• What you need to know about the deal
• ​UN Climate Conference: Full coverage