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| Australia will likely meet its decade-end target even as national emissions rise and may continue to do so for years. Photo: Glen McCurtayne |
Australia's national greenhouse gas emissions are set to keep rising well beyond 2020 on current trends, with the projected growth rate one of the worst in the developed world, a new analysis has found.
An assessment of recent government emissions data, carried out by the carbon consultancy firm RepuTex, says that in the 2014-15 financial year Australia's carbon pollution rose for the first time in almost a decade when compared to the previous year.
From there they say separate government forecasts, also released late last year, show Australia's emissions are on track for a further 6 per cent increase to 2020.
RepuTex's own projections find that on these trends Australian emissions would still not reach a peak before 2030, taking pollution beyond the historical high set almost a decade ago.
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| Australia's emissions bound Photo: RepuTex, Department of Environment |
RepuTex said this trajectory would put Australia's absolute emissions growth among the highest for developed nations. Only Finland, Sweden and Estonia are forecast to do worse between 2000 and 2020, with emissions falling in countries such as the United States, Germany and Britain.
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| Source: UNFCCC, RepuTex Photo: RepuTex |
While emissions were forecast to rise by the government out to 2020, it is a significantly lower increase than had been previously projected.
RepuTex argues these lower projections for 2020 are predominantly due to a reassessment of future economic growth rates. A spokesman for Environment Minister Greg Hunt said it was due to a more efficient economy, greater take up of renewable energy and lower land sector emissions.
More broadly Mr Hunt's spokesman hit out at RepuTex's track record, saying it had previously mis-forecast the results of auctions under direct action and whether Australia would meet its 2020 goal.
Although national emissions are rising, Australia will still almost certainly achieve its 2020 emissions reduction target of 5 per cent from 2000 levels. At the Paris climate summit last year Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said Australia would, "meet and beat our 2020 emissions reduction target".
RepuTex executive director Hugh Grossman said the government would largely meet its 2020 goal by relying on "carry over" carbon credits it had received for bettering an earlier target under the Kyoto Protocol.
At the Paris climate conference five countries – including Germany, Britain and Denmark – announced they would cancel out their carryover credits rather than use them to meet future targets.
"Meeting Australia's abatement task is largely just a victory in accounting terms," Mr Grossman said.
"We have met our target, but we used a credit to get there, so it's not a sign of any progress to reduce emissions."
Under the new climate agreement struck at the Paris conference, Australia has also pledged a goal to cut emissions by 26 to 28 per cent by 2030 from 2005 levels. Mr Hunt's spokesman said the government had laid out policies that would meet that goal.
The government has said it will review climate policy in 2017, including the potential use of international carbon permits to meet climate goals.
Mr Hunt's spokesman added the government expected the future emissions projections would again be revised down following the success at the Paris climate conference, changes in commodity demand and the outcomes of consultation on new government programs under development, including car emissions standards and a national energy productivity plan.
He said Australia's 2014-15 absolute emissions were the second lowest in the past 15 years. He also pointed to falling emissions when accounted for per person and by economic production.
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