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| Eleni Kalorkoti |
In the Solomon Islands, receding shorelines have destroyed some villages and rising sea levels have submerged five uninhabited islands, according to a study published in May. Drinking water is becoming increasingly scarce in Kiribati, another Pacific Ocean nation, as wells run dry or become contaminated by saltwater. And droughts appear to have become more intense in Africa and the Middle East and are probably a contributing factor to the migration of millions of people to Europe in recent years.
At last year's United Nations climate summit meeting in Paris, countries agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, a point beyond which the widespread drought, flooding and extinctions of species are expected to kick in. But even if the world meets that target — and the various national plans offered in Paris to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are still not strong enough to get there — many poor countries will still be vulnerable to warmer temperatures, higher sea levels and more frequent natural disasters. Some small island nations could disappear entirely in the coming decades.
While it's hard to connect any single natural disaster to climate change, weather-related calamities worldwide have increased in recent years. There were an average of 335 such disasters a year between 2005 and 2014 — nearly twice the yearly average from 1985 to 1994, according to a report by the United Nations and the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. And these disasters are more severe and more likely to displace people, according to a 2015 report by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center and the Norwegian Refugee Council. Last year, about 19.2 million people fled their homes because of disasters.
Developing countries will not be able to make the investments needed to survive conditions brought on by global warming — nor should they have to do so alone, as a matter of fairness. Poor countries are responsible for only a small share of all greenhouse gas emissions. Industrialized nations bear the greatest responsibility for climate change. It is also in their interest to help the rest of the world adapt, because experts expect that tens of millions to several hundred million people will be displaced by climate change. Most will move within their countries, but some of them inevitably will seek refuge in developed nations because they have no other place to go.
In 2014, the world's leading powers and institutions, like the World Bank, committed about $25 billion to help developing nations adapt to climate change, according to a United Nations report published in May. Developed countries have said that they will increase their support, to $100 billion a year starting in 2020, to help developing countries reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. That promise was made at the climate meeting in Copenhagen in 2009 and reaffirmed in Paris. (Hillary Clinton, then secretary of state, was a major force behind the 2009 pledge.) But that falls far short of the United Nations report's estimate that between $140 billion and $300 billion a year will be needed for adaptation by 2030.
Some of that spending would go toward building warning systems like those that exist for tsunamis, as well as stronger barriers against storm surges. Developing countries will also need to improve water conservation and flood management, restore wetlands and strengthen building codes.
Increases in temperatures and sea levels are likely to reduce agricultural yields, forcing more people to migrate to crowded cities. That's why political leaders need to start making policy changes that could take years to have an impact — like helping farmers switch to other crops and investing in infrastructure and housing in urban areas. While the world ponders ways to reduce emissions, the consequences of climate change are already underway.
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