The extreme weather conditions and 80,000 lightning strikes that thrust South Australia into darkness last week was extraordinary enough; the disingenuous debate it sparked about Australia's changing energy system has been something else again.
At the heart of the issue - as Malcolm Turnbull has identified - is ideology. Unfortunately, the Prime Minister's words on the subject would have had more power had he not allowed himself to be seen as an ideological player.
The collapse of transmission lines led to the shutdown of SA's entire power network. Photo: Tom Fedorowytsch/ABC |
The only real questions are: are we managing it well? If not, how do we to fix that?
The answer to the first is a resounding no. The second remains an open question that, as federal and state energy ministers prepare to meet in Melbourne on Friday, we are some distance away from meaningfully addressing.
The Capital Wind Farm in NSW. Picture: Bloomberg |
At the other end of the spectrum, and to a lesser extent, so does a suggestion that the shift to a cleaner grid will be simple. Neither are true. But the change is necessary and inevitable.
Consider the facts. Burning coal to make electricity has been good for Australia's economic development, but it wasn't and isn't cheap. It carries a hidden cost that is passed on to future generations.
Speculation is mounting that the Hazelwood power plant will close. Picture: Chris Hopkins |
Recent indicators suggest that damage is encroaching: 2016 is on track to be the hottest year on record; summer Arctic sea ice reached its second lowest level on record; the Greenland ice sheet is melting faster than previously thought; coral reefs are bleaching and dying at rates that have stunned scientists.
Global mean surface temperature for January to June 2016. Source: NASA |
Celebrations as the climate deal is secured in Paris in December. Picture: AP |
Businesses across the globe, hard-headed and rationalist, have taken the hint. Shareholders increasingly want to know how companies are responding to climate change. In both China and India, the huge investment in coal power has begun to slow, with some projections suggesting solar power may soon be cheaper to build.
China is aiming to reach a peak its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Picture: Getty |
Turnbull and Josh Frydenberg, his Environment and Energy Minister, have indicated publicly they understand the trend. Both have also acknowledged that under the Paris deal Australia's climate targets (a 26-28 per cent cut in emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 levels) will have to become more ambitious over time.
Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg. Picture: Philip Gostelow |
It has a policy to boost renewable energy that Tony Abbott sought to kill but couldn't, that Turnbull and Frydenberg have backed to deliver about 23.5 per cent of generation by 2020. But it stops in that year with no plan to extend it.
In this vacuum, Labor state governments have pledged to dramatically increase the share of renewable energy on their own turf. Some, including Victoria, have released details of how they plan to do this. Other targets, such as Queensland, are little more than aspirations. It is arguable whether state targets are helpful – some experts say they increase costs unnecessarily. As recently as last December, then environment minister Greg Hunt said he had encouraged states to offer extra investment if they wanted to attract more clean power. Blame for the current mess lies more with Canberra than the provinces.
Wholesale electricity prices increased dramatically in South Australia in winter. Picture: Jessica Hromas. |
Australia's coal plants are mostly old, need replacing over the next couple of decades, and no one is going to build a new coal plant. There is an argument that gas-fired electricity – with lower emissions than coal - could have a role as a transitional power source. But gas is increasingly expensive and are governments really going to introduce a new subsidy – whether direct or implied through regulation – for fossil fuel generation?
The economics and impossible politics of nuclear power continue to rule that out, but it is likely large-scale solar power could have a significant part to play. The cost is coming down rapidly and battery storage continues to advance. And an increasing chunk of the energy system will be decentralised – powered by people and businesses across the country with solar panels and batteries. Already, nearly 2 million Australian homes have solar panels.
Wherever it lands, the transition won't be straight-forward. But those arguing clean energy should be held back due to concerns the transmission network can't cope are approaching the issue in reverse. The question needs to be how can the network be transformed, and what rules need to be changed, to make the grid smart and robust enough to handle a complex mix of centralised, decentralised and intermittent generation underpinned by batteries? And what can we learn from places such as Germany and parts of the US, which have adapted to life with a higher proportion of renewables and micro-grids in certain areas that would protect against blackouts on the scale seen last week?
Energy ministers meeting on Friday could begin by agreeing to change what's known as the national electricity objective to reflect that their decisions should consider reducing emissions alongside the key issues of price and reliability.
It would make it easier to approve new connections between states – a step that should improve reliability of the grid, and is likely to lift the pace of transition.
They could discuss - ahead of a federal review next year - what policies are needed to transform the electricity sector at cheapest cost, and that could be scaled up to meet more ambitious targets. (Hint: start by turning direct action into a form of carbon pricing.)
They could consider how to best ensure coal plants are closed and clean energy brought on in a staged and predictable way.
With their colleagues in other portfolios, they could agree on a template for supporting people in coal towns who deserve support and empathy as their livelihood winds up - including, perhaps, an industry policy that brings work to those regions.
That would be a start. Here's hoping.
Links
- Emergency ministers meeting after SA blackout a 'political stunt': Vic
- Preliminary Report – Black System Event In South Australia On 28 September 2016
- Series of faults plunged SA into darkness, says AEMO report.
- Preliminary report reveals cause of South Australia blackout
- South Australian blackout highlights need for a national energy transition plan
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