That it was not thought worth raising in the US presidential debates is astounding
Nature does not care what we think about it. Indeed, nature does not care about us at all. But we should care about nature. Above all, we should care about nature if our actions are affecting it adversely. Probably the most important way in which we are affecting nature is via the climate. Yet our response is foolish denial and fond hope. Nature will not be impressed.
What nature is doing at present is heating the planet. Of this no serious doubt remains. The global warming “pause” of 1998-2013 is definitively over. Even before recent temperature rises to the highest on record, the notion of a pause was absurd. In 1998 there was a strong El Niño — a feature of which is high global temperatures. What was remarkable is that the years after 1998 remained so hot.
Both
last year and this one, with another strong El Niño, temperatures have
hit records. A straight line between the peaks of January 1958 and
February 2016 lies above the temperature in all intervening months. The
same is true for a line drawn between March 1990 and February 2016.
Twelve-month and 60-month moving averages give a similar picture. No
slowdown in underlying rates of temperature rises is happening. After
this El Niño another purported pause might occur — but probably at a
higher average level than during the previous one. (See charts.)
Just as the world is hitting peak temperatures (relative to
the 1951-80 average and pre-industrial levels), so is it hitting peak
concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This year, the
global average will almost certainly pass 400 parts per million, which
is more than 40 per cent above pre-industrial levels. Given the
well-known physics of the greenhouse effect, the causal relationship
between the rising concentrations of greenhouse gases and consistently
rising temperatures is at the very least overwhelmingly plausible.
Finally,
we also know that the rise in concentrations of carbon dioxide are sure
to continue, and for a long time. This is because emissions have
themselves continue to rise, despite the talk about bringing them under
control. So not only are the stocks of carbon dioxide continuing to rise
but even the emission flows from human activities.
It is a remarkable fact that, given these simple truths, the question of climate change was barely addressed in the US presidential debates.
This is not because it cannot matter. It is not because the candidates
do not disagree. It is because few wish to think about the implications
of these realities.
The two dominant responses to the evident reality of climate risks are denial. But they are very different forms of denial. I think of them as “denial major” and “denial minor”.
“Denial
major” comes from the right. It starts from two facts and one
supposition. Fact one is that many of the people who take climate change
seriously are very suspicious of — if not downright hostile to — the
market economy. Fact two is that climate change implies a costly global
spillover from market-driven economic activity. The supposition is that
doing anything to mitigate climate change must entail massive
interference in the market economy and impose large economic costs.
The
natural conclusion is that the idea of man-made climate change has to
be fraudulent because the possibility of its truth is too painful to
contemplate. It would be possible for those who want no action to agree,
instead, that climate change is true but not worth any action. The
drawback of this is that it would force a discussion about why doing
nothing makes sense.
“Denial minor” comes from those who recognise the evident
dangers but argue that tackling climate change effectively is a
relatively low-cost and simple challenge. This, too, is implausible.
Even if, as some argue, the technologies needed to sustain economic
growth while progressively eliminating carbon emissions are either here
or arriving at ever-falling cost, the political, social and economic
challenge of delivering a decisive break in these trends is daunting. It
is too easy to get away with applauding what are in fact little more
than gestures in the direction of tackling climate risks as if they are
the real thing.
The much-praised Paris agreement
of December 2015 is not only toothless but would fall far short even of
keeping temperature rises below 2C, let alone below the 1.5C thought
more desirable. This has to be a global effort of appropriate scale and
urgency. Otherwise nothing relevant would change.
“Denial
major” guarantees failure. It is what a President Donald Trump would
take with him into the White House. Under him, the US would presumably
abandon the modest steps taken under President Barack Obama. But the US
is not just the world’s second-largest emitter; it is one of the biggest
emitters per head. Without the US, the effort to reduce climate risks
would be dead. That this was not thought worth even raising in the
debates is astounding.
A President Hillary Clinton would
not be guilty of “denial major” but is likely to indulge in “denial
minor”, substituting modest gestures for policies able to bring credible
change.
Indeed, without at least a start on carbon
pricing and a determination to develop technologies far faster, the
necessary shift in trends could not happen in time. The world would then
have to adapt to the consequences of climate shifts it did not have the
capacity to mitigate.
It is impossible to have just a
US climate policy or a Chinese climate policy. It has to be a global
policy. Much has changed in attitudes since the UK government published
the Stern review
a decade ago. But little has yet altered on the ground. Only if we
collectively recognise and act upon the realities right now is anything
much likely to change. On this, I remain pessimistic.
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