The effects of global warming ‘are becoming so severe they hold tremendous conflict potential’ in some areas and the world should prepare for millions of refugees
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| Major General Munir Muniruzzaman pointed to the recent diplomatic row between bitter regional rivals India and Pakistan Reuters |
Climate change
is threatening to force millions of people to become refugees and spark
major wars that could “completely destabilise” the world, a leading
general has warned.
And countries which attempted to
deal with the coming crisis by resorting to “narrow nationalistic
instincts” – for example, by building walls to keep out refugees – will
only make the problem worse, according to Major General Munir
Muniruzzaman, chairman of the Global Military Advisory Council On Climate Change (GMACCC).
He added that, while countries
had talked a lot about the problems posed by global warming and how to
address them, there did not seem to be “much action” on the ground.
The GMACCC was set up in 2009 to
investigate the security implications of climate change and its members
include serving and retired military officers from around the world,
such as the UK’s Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti and Brigadier General
Stephen Cheney, a former US Marine.
Speaking ahead of the United Nations climate summit in Marrakesh
next month, General Muniruzzaman said it was time to make good on the
promises made at last year’s historic meeting in Paris with global
warming already contributing to flooding and droughts, threatening
financial security and affecting people's health.
“In our analysis, we are seeing the risk is now
becoming all-pervasive from climate change in the sense that it is
touching multiple sectors … many of the sectors are being gravely
challenged,” he said.
“In some areas of the world,
some of the issues we are touching on are becoming so severe they hold
tremendous conflict potential."
He pointed to the recent
diplomatic row between bitter regional rivals India and Pakistan, which
both have large militaries and nuclear weapons, over water supplies.
“There was a possibility of a
break down [of diplomacy] … which could have led to the first major
water conflict of the world,” he said.
The events of the Arab Spring and the Syrian civil war were also connected to unrest caused by droughts and crop failures.
General Muniruzzaman pointed to
projections that sea-level rise could result in the loss of 20 per cent
of Bangladesh’s territory as early as 2050, which would force up to 30
million people to look for a new home.
“Imagine, with an international
community unable to cope with a few thousand Syrian refugees, what will
happen when millions of people are on the move,” he said.
The reaction to the refugee crisis by some European countries – such as Hungary, Norway and the UK – has been to build walls and fences to keep people out.
But General Muniruzzaman said:
“I’m very strongly of the opinion that walls are never a solution. You
cannot build walls to stop people when they want to go to safety.
“If you build walls and high
fences, they will break them and cross over. The risk people are taking
when they cross the water [the Mediterranean] … many have drowned.”
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| Turkey has two million Syrian refugees. |
Instead of trying to hold back
the tide of climate refugees, General Muniruzzaman said it would be
better for the world to work out “international understanding and
mechanisms” to enable mass movements of people to take place
peacefully.
But the solution might need a significant rethink
of the whole concept of the modern nation, which is said by some
historians to have been born out of the Peace of Westphalia treaty in
1648.
“People have moved before. Environmental changes have forced people to relocate themselves historically,” he said.
“What has become more difficult now is we have boxed ourselves into the Westphalian system of states.
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| Refugees welcome here: Protesters demand UK resettle more migrants in response to refugee crisis. |
“That is in conflict with nature, with the movement of people … we need to find a common ground.
“We need leaders with vision … we have to have a global solution to the problem, this is a civilisational problem.
“If we want to solve [these problems] with narrow nationalistic instincts, we will be adding more problems, not solving them.”
Major wars and mass migration
had the potential to “completely destabilise” not just countries and
regions, but the entire world, the general said.
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| Refugees break through Macedonia border fence in February. |
But he warned that most
countries and most armed forces were “ill-prepared to meet the challenge
for which they will be called upon to meet somebody and not too long
away”.
“We have to understand and meet
the challenge, so we are not completely overwhelmed when they happen on
the ground,” General Muniruzzaman said.
“We don’t have the proper strategies and policies in place to meet the security impacts of climate change.
“I would like to warn everybody
we are way behind schedule to trying to find a solution to the problems
we can see. In most cases we have been shying away from the problems we
can absolutely identify and see.
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| Calais refugee camp evacuation. |
“For a long time, we have been
talking about the issues, but on the ground we don't see much action. As
a soldier, I have a more action-orientated approach."
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