In September, US President Barack Obama signed a presidential memorandum on climate change and national security.
It
establishes a policy that the impacts of climate change must be
considered in the development of national security doctrine, policies
and plans.
To achieve this, 20 US
agencies and offices with climate science, intelligence analysis and
national security policy development missions and responsibilities will
collaborate to ensure the best information on climate impacts is
available to prepare for unavoidable impacts.
The
day the memorandum was issued, the US National Intelligence Council
released its own report identifying how climate change could pose
significant security challenges for the US over the next two decades,
including stressing US military operations and bases and straining the
capacity of US and allied armed forces to deliver humanitarian
assistance and disaster relief.
There’s
now evidence that the tide’s also turning here: Defence is recognising
the challenges posed by a changing climate and the closely related
subject of energy sustainability.
Last
year’s Defence white paper referred to climate change and its
deleterious effect on both the strategic environment and on defence
infrastructure.
Since Australia signed a
statement of co-operation agreement with the US Navy in 2012 to share
information on alternative fuels, the RAN has progressed from testing
one Seahawk helicopter during RIMPAC four years ago, to three warships
that took more than 4.5 megalitres of blended alternative fuel from US
oilers during RIMPAC in August.
In May,
Chief of Navy Tim Barrett approved the use of US Navy-sourced
alternative fuel blends for RAN ships’ diesel as a replacement fuel for
RAN ships manufactured via the US Navy-approved pathways.
Technical
constraints for the two current pathways for producing RAN diesel from
synthetic crude require that it must be blended with at least 50 per
cent of diesel produced from fossil crude to meet Navy standards.
Defence
on its own won’t shape the energy market, even though it spent $524
million on fuel in 2014/15 (just under 60 per cent air force, 33 per
cent navy and the residual to army).
Defence
use of liquid fuels is a drop in the ocean of the nation’s fuels
consumption (industry and mining are much bigger users). But there’s no
reason why Defence shouldn’t set an ambitious target in terms of moving
towards alternative fuels by announcing it’s ready to receive
cost-competitive blended products.
Perhaps
the clearest statement on the way Defence is starting to think harder
about climate change came in September from Lieutenant General Angus
Campbell in his opening address to the Chief of Army’s exercise.
His
speech had a focus on climate change. He said the top 10 most at risk
countries with exposure to sea level rise by 2100 were all in the
Indo-Pacific. More than 138 million people are at risk. More than
500,000 people live in the small Pacific and Indian Ocean island states
that may become uninhabitable between 2050 and 2100.
An
unstable planet, he said, was one of the three issues he believed
central to the security challenges we’ll encounter in redefining
boundaries for the 21st century land force. (The other two were what he
called empowered individuals and assertive states, although he said
there was some degree of interplay between the three drivers.)
The
general said that while we didn’t know where the problem of climate
change would take us, he said climate change was the “ultimate threat
multiplier’’.
Campbell said armed
forces had their role to play in response to climate change, not just in
adopting best practice on environmental management and energy needs,
but in increasing the use of Defence assets in humanitarian assistance
and disaster relief operations. He said the scale of climate change
problems, their unpredictability and the level of support required from
land forces were key issues for Defence.
He
should be commended for delivering this message: there’s no doubt some
of our new capabilities such as the Canberra-class LHDs, future
frigates, offshore patrol vessels and our air transport fleet will find
climate change and its effects a key driver of activity over the coming
decades. Within regions where resources come under strain, nationalism
will surge and conflict can erupt.
But
we’ve fair way to go when compared to our major ally. Last year the US
Defence department issued a directive that dictates that climate change
be incorporated into every aspect of US military training and
preparedness.
The directive says
Defence must be able identify and assess the effects of climate change
and take those effects into consideration when planning. It must
anticipate and manage risks that develop as a result of climate change
to build resilience.
A point of
interest for Australia is that the directive says the chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff will work with US allies and partners to optimise
joint exercises and war games incorporating climate change
considerations.
Defence should now
appoint a senior military leader to act as a strategic voice for climate
change national security issues, including preparedness and capability.
The first step would be a review of climate change impacts on Defence.
One
area for Defence to examine would be alternative jet fuels.
Scientists are close to using eucalyptus trees to develop renewable jet
fuel.
Eucalyptus oil contains compounds that can be refined through a catalytic process and converted into a high-energy fuel.
Defence
could initiate a pilot program and team with researchers to grow its
own jet fuel and revegetate arid and semi-arid bases and training ranges
with suitable trees. It might partner with indigenous communities and
provide jobs and iron out the ups and downs of commercial fuel prices.
*Anthony Bergin is senior research fellow at the ANU National Security College and senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
Links
- A Military View On Climate Change: It’s Eroding Our National Security And We Should Prepare For It
- Obama: National Security Decisions Must Consider Threat of Climate Change
- Taking Aim At Climate Change: Australia's Military Sees Rising Challenges
- Defence White Paper: Climate Change Threatens Regional Security
- Climate Change Seen As Top Global Threat
- Kerry: Climate Change Threatens Global Security
- Be Prepared: Climate Change, Security and Australia’s Defence Force
- Why Climate Change Is Australia's Greatest National Security Issue
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